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The coming ‘power supply crisis’ in America
Ronald Stein P.E.
August 26, 1014
Co-authored by Ronald Stein and Rafe Champion.
The USA and other nations are closing coal and natural gas power plants in pursuit of net-zero emissions and are approaching a critical point where the lights will start to flicker every night when there is no sunshine and the wind is low.
The subsidized and mandated wind and solar-generated electricity that is intermittent is displacing, but not replacing, the continuously uninterruptible generated electricity via fossil fuels.
America’s reliance on UNRELIABLE generated electricity from wind and solar is a fool’s game.
Led by California, the fourth largest economy in the world, as well as Britain, Germany, and South America, have passed the critical “tipping point,” and they survive by importing power from neighboring states and shedding power-intensive industries. Isolated grids like Australia and Texas are seriously at risk.
U.S. Policymakers are oblivious to the fact that people use CONTINUOUS electricity for lighting, heating, cooling, and refrigeration and for operating appliances, computers, electronics, machinery, and public transportation systems.
There are several needs for CONTINUOUS and UNINTERRUPTIBLE electricity that wind and solar CANNOT provide. For safety, security, and life support, here are a few that need CONTINUOUS electricity:
● Computers
● Communications
● Telemetry
● Datacenters
● Airports
● Air Traffic control
● Hospitals
In addition to our personal consumption of electricity, there is massive demand from smelters, heavy industry, and the burgeoning use of AI and cloud storage for data centers. Mark Mills at the Manhattan Institute claims that the cloud is on the way to becoming the biggest infrastructure project in human history. Two years ago, Mr. Mills reported that the cloud was
consuming twice as much electricity as Japan, the world’s third-largest economy.
It is incomprehensible that American policymakers are adopting goals to move to 100 percent “clean” ELECTRICITY by 2050. The elephant in the room that no policymaker understands nor wants to discuss is that:
● The nameplate generation capacity (installed capacity vs actual generation) of both solar and wind equipment is a total farce. Time of day solarization and the vagaries of weather determine the power output of both systems; this has no relationship whatsoever with the nameplate capacity value. As these systems also exhibit frequent mechanical failures due to wear and damage from weather conditions, they should be subject to penalties for periods of inactivity. Further, they should be subject to additional penalties for failure to provide adequate backup generation during periods when there is no sun illumination or the wind speed level is inadequate.
A 3-minute video on How Wind Turbines are Built is a MUST viewing, especially since all those efforts and materials are for the generation of electricity dependent on breezes that do not work most of the time! Before we continue to fund the albatross idea of occasional electricity generated from wind, a worthwhile article that should be read is The Titanic scale of floating wind turbines quantified by David Wojick.
American policymakers setting “green” policies are oblivious to the reality that Electricity came AFTER the discovery of oil 200 years ago.
● ALL electrical generation from hydro, coal, natural gas, nuclear, wind, and solar are ALL built with the products, components, and equipment that are made from the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil.
● All EVs, solar panels, and wind turbines are also built with the products, components, and equipment that are made from the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil.
Electricity is the lifeblood of modern society, alongside the incredible range of more than 6,000 petrochemical products.
The 6,000 products made from fossil fuels enable people to live lives of ease and comfort that were inconceivable for the masses in the past. They are the basis of modern life, providing thousands of products that are ubiquitous in modern society. The same products that wind and solar CANNOT make!
Efforts to cease the use of the fossil fuels that support the supply chain of products and fuels demanded by society, without a planned replacement, could be the greatest threat to America’s 333 million and the world’s billions.
The reason for this power shortage crisis is as simple as 1, 2, 3, 4.
1. Input to the grid must continuously match the demand.
2. The continuity of renewable electricity is broken on nights with little or no wind (wind droughts.)
3. There is no feasible or affordable large-scale storage to bridge the gaps.
4. That means the transition to wind and solar power can’t proceed with current storage technology.
American policymakers are incapable of participating in conversations about their Plan B to keep the lights on if Plan A fails. No coherent reply was forthcoming, and it looks as though the best we can expect is more tax dollars (subsidies) to keep the coal fires burning.
The official energy story is not likely to have a happy ending, and the time has come for a new energy narrative based on realism and concern for the welfare of people and the planet. Let’s be energy realists and responsible stewards of the environment.
Electricity realism rules in China and the developing world as they scramble for all the coal, oil, and gas they can get. Meanwhile, the nations of the West emulate the mythical farmer who incrementally reduced the rations of his workhorse until it died. We run down coal power and gas until there is not enough continuous and uninterruptable conventional electricity, and parts of the grid are likely to die on nights when there is no sunshine and little or no wind.
Britain and Germany have passed that point and are rapidly deindustrializing. Their collapse is cushioned by importing power from neighbors like Norway, France, and Poland, which are well-served by conventional power.
Today, California imports more electricity than any other US state, more than twice the amount of Virginia, the second largest importer of electricity. California typically receives between one-fifth and one-third of its electricity supply from outside of the state. The horrific electrical grid
problems in Texas have been documented by the Press time and time again. Power prices are rocketing into the stratosphere and, even before winter drives up demand, are being deprived of electricity in a way that was unthinkable barely a decade ago. But such is life when you attempt to run on sunshine and breezes.
To reiterate, and to stimulate conversations on Energy Literacy education, a must viewing is this 8-minute video: Mandatory Emissions To Achieve Net-Zero Is A Fool’s Game.
This article is co-authored by Rafe Champion. Rafe Champion has an advanced degree in Agricultural Science. He is a founding member of The Energy Realists of Australia and co-author of an introductory book on climate and energy. “Trigger Warming: Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Global Warming (But Were Afraid To Ask)”
Ronald Stein P.E.Ambassador for Energy & Infrastructure, Co-author of the Pulitzer Prize nominated book “Clean Energy Exploitations”, policy advisor on energy literacy for The Heartland Institute, and The Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, and National TV
Commentator- Energy & Infrastructure with Rick Amato. Ronald Stein, P.E. is an engineer, energy consultant, speaker, author of books and articles on energy, environmental policy, and human rights, and Founder of PTS Advance, a California based company. Ron advocates that energy literacy starts with the knowledge that renewable energy is only intermittent electricity generated from unreliable breezes and sunshine, as wind turbines and solar panels cannot manufacture anything for the 8 billion on this planet.