October 27, 2024
Climate Discussion Group 2024, CDG2024 Discussion – Policy P6
October - November 2024
P6 Benefits of CO2 - greening the Earth, record crop yields, etc
Oct. 10, 2024 Ray Garnett Canada Ray Garnett Climate & Crop Letter (Vol 20 No 05) October 10 2024
Agro-Climate Consulting
Excerpts from this edition of the Newsletter -----------------------------------------------------------
Highlights Since the Last Letter
* Australian wheat yields are estimated at 5% below trend. Argentinean wheat yields are estimated 7% below trend;
* Persistent agricultural drought is delaying the planting of winter grains in Ukraine and Russia;
* The climatic outlook is for dryness to persist throughout much of Brazil's soybean area OctoberDecember, the planting period;
* The goal of net zero policies is to eliminate fossil fuels
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and thus natural gas (See Appendix C); and
* Appendix C describes how Canadian taxpayer dollars are being used to promote research that indirectly threatens Canadian prairie farmers.
Canadian Prairies: Spring Wheat and Canola
Summary: Excessive rainfall has slowed harvesting in eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan over the past month.
Based on 32 stations, September rainfall was 91% of normal with temperatures 4°C above normal. The Weather Channel reports that Winnipeg broke its temperature record for September as did other Manitoba stations.
In Alberta at October 1, 85% of the major crops were harvested versus the 5-year average of 72% with wheat at 92% and canola at 72%.
In Saskatchewan, the harvest was 91% complete.
Figure 1 shows where excessive rainfall occurred during the past month impeding harvest and where September soil moisture recharge has been the best (namely the Palliser brown soil zone.)
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U.S.: Corn, Hard Red Winter Wheat and Soybeans
Summary: Soil moisture recharge is needed in Nebraska, northern Kansas and Oklahoma.
Over the September 30-October 6 period, little if any rainfall occurred in major grain growing areas amidst warmer-than-normal temperatures as the soybean harvest proceeded, being 28% harvested ahead of the 5-year average of 18% at September 29. The corn harvest was 21% complete which is slightly ahead of the average of 18%.
Hard red winter wheat areas of Nebraska, northern Kansas and Oklahoma are lacking in September soil moisture recharge. Forty per cent of the HRW crop was planted at September 29. This is close to the five-year average.
Other Global Impacts
Argentina: Wheat, Soybeans and Corn
October 27, 2024
Summary: Wheat is in poor condition with the 2024 yield estimated at 7% below trend.
September 26-October 3 brought no rainfall amidst warmer-than-normal temperatures during heading.
In September two thirds of the wheat crop had less than 50% of normal rainfall. Half the wheat area was in poor condition at October 6.
ACC estimates the 2024 yield at 41.6 bu/ac for a production of 16.7 mln tonnes with the yield 7% below trend.
Corn planting will be one third compete.
Brazil: Wheat, Soybeans and Corn
Summary: A large portion of the soybean area is expected to be drier than normal October-December.
September brought 5-50% of normal rainfall to over half the soybean area with planting underway in the state of Sao Paulo. Dryness is likely to impede soybean planting if it persists. Wheat is harvested October-December. The harvesting of the second season corn crop will be wrapping up.
Risk Assessment: Based on a consistently negative phase of SOI during August-September. there is a 30-40% probability of rainfall exceeding the median in northern Parana and portions of Sao Paula, Gioias, Minas Gerais and Bahia states during October-December. These states produce about 35% of soybean crop.
Europe (EU) and United Kingdom (UK): Winter Grains
October 27, 2024
Summary: Excessive rain has complicated corn harvesting and planting of winter cereals while recharging soil moisture for 2025 grains.
Rainfall September 26 -October 5 was 200-400% of normal in northern Spain, the UK, most of France, the Benelux countries, Germany and most of southern Eastern Europe amidst cooler-than-normal temperatures, disrupting corn harvesting and the planting of winter grains and oilseeds. September rainfall has been heaviest the UK, northeastern Spain, southeastern Germany, Hungary, and the former Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia.
The harvest in France, the EU's largest corn producer is normally a third complete at this time.
Reports indicate that the extreme wet and a cold 2024 growing season in the UK slashed wheat production harvest by 25%. The ground was cold and wet when wheat was planted forcing replanting, doubling the cost of seed. The rain did not let up. The cold impacted crops such as corn, potatoes and pumpkins. UK wheat production is expected to be 3 million tonnes lower than in 2023.
Risk Assessment: An intense Icelandic Low is being projected through October 15 which is conducive to wet weather.
FSU: Winter and Spring Grains
Summary: Persisting agricultural drought is delaying the plantings of 2025 winter grains in Ukraine and Russia. Dry weather in September favoured field work in the European sector.
European Sector
September 26-October 6 brought very dry weather to
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eastern Ukraine, north Caucasus, central black soil and Volga valley regions amidst much-above-normal temperatures as winter wheat planting wraps up. The western Ukraine and Russian winter wheat areas have received 5-50% of normal rainfall during September.
Reports indicate that Russia has only seeded 28.8 mln acres versus the harvested area of 69.2 mln acres in 2024. Winter wheat plantings are 11% behind last year, the slowest pace in 11 years and is related to dry soils and lack of germination. Only 50% of Russia's and 25% Ukraine's intended plantings are in the ground.
Risk Assessment: Based on recent SOI behaviour, there is 30-40% probability of rainfall exceeding the median October-December in portions of Ukraine and northward into the central region.
Siberian Sector (East of the Ural Mountains) Drier and warmer-than-normal conditions allowed harvesting September 26-October 6. August rainfall was a nuisance during filling. The spring wheat harvest is normally done in September.
Risk Assessment: Based on most recent SOI behaviour, there is a 60-80% probability of rainfall exceeding the median in the Ural region, northern Kazakhstan and portions of western Siberia October-December.
Turkey and the Middle East: Wheat and Durum
September brought above normal rainfall to the wheat areas of Turkey and northern Iran. Wheat planting will be one third complete. Appendix B reveals that Iran has food security concerns such that in 2021/2022 it was the sixth largest wheat importer.
Risk Assessment: Based on most recent SOI behaviour,
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there is a 30-40% probability of rainfall exceeding the median in northwestern Turkey and western Iranian wheat areas October-December.
India: Rice
Summary: Planting of the 2025 wheat crop will be underway.
Excessive rainfall the week of September 26-October 2 likely slowed rice harvesting in Tamil Nadu in the south. Over the past month, rainfall has been above normal favouring the rice crop at heading. Harvesting of the kharif rice crop begins this month. Planting of the 2025 wheat crop is starting.
China: Soybeans, Corn and Spring Wheat
Summary: Fall recharge rainfall to date for the 2025 winter wheat crop has been normal.
September 26 to October 5 saw above normal rainfall in 80% of the winter wheat area complicating the planting of the 2025 crop. Over the past month, rainfall in the winter wheat area has been in the normal range. Harvesting of the corn, soybean and rice crop is underway.
Indonesia and Malaysia: Palm Oil
Summary: Rainfall April 1-September 30 has been at normal levels which is suggestive of a trend yield.
The crop year extends from October 1 through September.
Australia: Wheat
Summary: Australia's wheat crop is in fair condition at
October 27, 2024 best.
September 26 to October 5 brought beneficial rainfall to western Australia while other states were dry with the crop the critical heading stage. Long term soil moisture recharge deficits are hurting conditions in South Australia, Victoria, Queensland and portions of Western Australia of New South Wales.
September 6-October 5 per cent of normal rainfall was: South Australia 5-50%, New South Wales 25-70%, Queensland 25-120%, Victoria 50-70%, western Australia 25-120% (i.e. highly variable in most states.)
There have been reports of frost damaging canola and possibly wheat at this critical time. Cooler-than-normal weather the past three weeks has been a saving grace.
ACC maintains a wheat yield of 35 bu/ac for a production of 30.9 mln tonnes, 5 mln tonnes higher than in 2023.