CDG2024 Final Technical Report
Climate Discussion Group
Climate change is one of the most debated topics of our time, covering everything from the impact of weather patterns to economic stability and human health. As scientific opinions evolve around the causes and consequences of a warming planet, the urgency for effective policy responses becomes paramount. For policymakers, this means not only understanding the complex interplay of environmental, social, and economic factors but also crafting effective strategies. This is a discussion from invited participants about an understanding of Climate on the technical level.
C1 General
John Shanahan (30Nov) reviews four different possible sources for the increase in CO2
1. CO2 from fossil fuels causes most of the additional CO2 in the atmosphere and this is the cause of global warming.
2. CO2 from fossil fuels causes most of the additional CO2 but is not the cause of global warming.
3. CO2 from fossil fuels is rapidly absorbed by the oceans. In warm places, there is an outgassing of CO2 from the oceans.
4. A combination of the three above, while CO2 is not the main source of warming.
Ned Nikolov (28Nov) has commented on the Clintel Climate Conference in Prague. Here is the Conference Communiqué.
Kees le Pair and Ned Nikolov have an email exchange.
Terigi Ciccone (15Nov) has Part 1 of “The benefits of increased CO2 and warmer temperatures”.
Clintel (14Nov) Prague Conference Press Release declares that the “Climate Emergency is at an end”.
Clintel/SCC (30Dec) Here is the report of the Proceedings from the Clintel Conference in Prague. It contains “Long Abstracts” from the presenters. It runs to some 150 pages.
www.scienceofclimatechange.org/proceedings/
CDG participants discuss the factors influencing the climate. This is a good summary of the complexity of our climate. No one-factor explanation of our varied weather conditions will do. What are the important variables?
Terigi Ciccone (7Nov) on the benefits of CO2.
John Shanahan (4Nov) addresses some of the observed weather events and facts in a form that high school students would understand.
Terigi Ciccone et al (2Nov) links to an Ed Berry newsletter with the essential science of climate change.
Terigi Ciccone (25Oct) – “Why the fuss with CO2 and the greenhouse effect?”
John Sackett (25Oct) asks how come CO2 is not driving global warming. He presents several current explanations circulating in the media and asks for counterarguments.
Howard Dewhirst (22Oct) links to the Energy Institute's new version of the annual BP report. He shares his insight into the impact of different nations on our climate.
John Shanahan (14Oct) shares his experience of varied weather around the world.
Brian Catt (12Oct) quotes an Abstract of a paper which talks about life after fossil fuels run out. This is a long and informative post.
Howard Dewhirst (8Dec23) on the missing water vapor from many reports. There are a couple of interesting charts on the difference between the northern and southern hemispheres.
C2 Classical Physics to explain the Earth’s weather
What happens in the upper atmosphere?
1) Photons of sunlight arrive to warm the planet.
2) Photons of infrared radiation leave, so the planet doesn't overheat.
3) Sunlight causes photosynthesis to feed all life on the planet.
4) Insects pollinate plants and feed bats. 5) Small animals scamper and feed birds of prey.
6) Microorganisms in the soil reprocess dead plants and support live ones.
7) Clouds and air currents bring rain and snow from oceans.
8) Most of our weather happens in the Troposphere and follows the Ideal Gas Laws of Classical Physics.
Lightfoot and Ratzer (17Dec) report on the Hunga Tonga submarine volcano that erupted in January 2022 in the Western Pacific. This was under-reported for the most part by the media but was a once-in-a-lifetime event. Just ask your friends and neighbors if they have heard of Hunga Tonga (give them 50% if they can say where Tonga is!). The paper and post point out this may be the most important natural event of this decade and appears to be a data-driven, Scientific Method to confirm that CO2 does not drive our climate, and water vapor is much more important to our weather. The vital point is that over the next 6 years, we can expect a 1°C reduction in the global temperature. This is based on the presented research (no – not from CO2) at the link above and the research of Valentina Zharkova predicting a Grand Solar Minimum.
Guus Berkhout et al (29Nov) explain that CO2 global warming and greenhouse theory have been disapproved by several lines of research.
Lightfoot and Ratzer (24Nov) have a post entitled Factors Affecting the Earth’s Temperature.
Terigi Ciccone (23Nov) has a post entitled Climate Science for Policymakers.
Ciccone & Ratzer (22Nov) have a post entitled Molecular and atmospheric scale energy.
Pavel Kalenda (30 Oct) shows part of his conference presentation – What came first: temperature of CO2?
Uli Weber (25Oct) has an email to point out the errors of treating the Earth as a static planet with a flat surface. There are several links from this email.
Marty Cornell (25Oct) on indoctrination of school kids on climate issues in the USA.
Russ Babcock (23Oct) addresses problems with carbon capture.
Gregory Wrightstone (22Oct) with an extract of the CO2 Coalition presentation to the Wyoming Energy Authority “Don’t waste Money on CO2 Removal”.
Eric Jelinski (15Oct) with a link to a Nature paper on global warming.
Brendan Godwin (13Oct) on why direct heating by IR radiation does not explain the Earth’s weather.
C3 Radiation Transfer (RTC) and Heat Transport (HTC) Concepts
Weather always changes. So does climate - all over the world, all the time. Carbon dioxide interacting with infrared radiation is a very minor, bit actor in "climate change." Where does RTC apply and where and when do HTC control our weather?
Nikolov, Ratzer, & Throne (6Dec) RTC versus Thermodynamics
Shula & Ott (30Nov) The “Missing Link” in the Greenhouse Effect.
Shula (29Nov) Why Radiative Transfer is the Wrong Model for the Earth’s Atmosphere.
Shula (29Nov) Photons and Photonic Confusion
Shula (27Nov) On Spectral Radiance and its Meaning
Lightfoot (2Nov) Email to Howard Hayden about the effect of thermodynamics and RTC on dips and bumps in the radiation profile of GHGs.
Ratzer (16Oct) on where RTC and when HTC apply. Includes the four Laws of Thermodynamics in plain text.
Nikolov, Throne & Newman (15Nov) Video discussion on their new paradigm.
Nikolov (14Oct) Email with text and links to his papers.
Hayden & Catt (14Oct) Link to 10 lectures on Climate Science.
Throne (13Oct) Explains the Nikolov & Zeller paradigm for planets with a rocky surface and an atmosphere.
Zeller (12Oct) Explains the background of the Nikolov and Zeller papers.
Lindzen (10Oct) What is Climate? Global Warming Narrative.
Nikolov & Zeller (10Oct) Latest paper link.
C4 Exo-Earth planets, Solar wind, Cosmic Rays and Milankovitch Cycles.
Terigi Ciccone (22Dec) How the Sun warms the Earth, Part 1 includes a discussion of the Milankovitch Cycles and the Barycenter of the Solar system.
C5 Albedo, scattering and absorption of radiation.
Gerald Ratzer (22Dec) starts with an AI response to the title, which is then analyzed. There is a further analysis of the Energy Balance diagram that appears in the IPCC AR5. Ned Nikolov has an extended discussion on this in his long video, starting at minute 19, where the IPCC errors are explained.
C6 Thermalization of energy in our Atmosphere
Shula & Ott (28Nov) Dynamics of Thermalization with link to video interview and article. Also, includes an email discussion between Happer and Burton.
Ciccone & Pangburn (13Oct) More on the Happer/Buton email discussion.
Ott (11Oct) Saturation and thermalization near the ground.
Ratzer (11Oct) The distinction between RTC (Radiative Transfer Concept) and HTC (Heat Transport Concept), with a link for more details.
Ciccone (11Oct) “Why all the fuss with CO2 and the Greenhouse effect?”
Heller (11Oct) 1,500 years of heatwaves
Koonin (11Oct) Climate Science is Not Settled. Wall Street Journal article.
Nikolov & Zeller (11Oct) A New Paradigm for Climate Science: CO2 is innocent! Looks at the history of planetary motion and how their new findings lead to a simple relation for all planets with a rocky surface and an atmosphere. The surface pressure and the TSI at TOA are all that is needed to find the long-term surface average temperature (2018). The composition of the atmosphere is not required.
Nikolov & Zeller (11Oct) use aliases (their names spelled backwards!) to get their 2014 paper published. GMAT and ATE paper. Global Mean Average Temperature and Atmospheric Thermal Effect.
C7 Atmospheric Physics, including auto compression
Ratzer & Throne (30Nov) Email exchange on the level of serious Science content. Specifically, no one has challenged the Nikolov & Zeller papers and taken them to task. For the most part, they have been ignored. Emails reference the work of Prof. Kleppe.
Furst, Nikolov, Zeller, Zharkova, Salek, and Throne (23Nov) This is a full discussion of the background Physics and what happens in the atmosphere close to the surface. Trying to reduce the dynamic and chaotic weather we experience to a few averages of radiation hitting a flat disk - cannot explain all the complexity of our weather and climate.
Holmes (28Oct) Argues there is no greenhouse effect. There are links to his paper, which discusses the “Missing 33°C”. Also links to many videos he has produced.
Nikolov, Throne, and Newman (15Oct) Discuss the N&Z papers.
Nikolov (14Oct) Another email promoting the N&Z papers.
Hayden, Catt (14Oct) Email discussion and a set of ten lecture notes from Hayden.
Throne, Nikolov, Zeller (13Oct) More explanation of the N&Z papers.
Lindzen (10Oct) What is Climate? Global Warming Narrative
Nikolov, Zeller (1Oct) Point out errors in IPCC satellite data.