Impacts of Comprehensive Climate and Energy Policy Options on the U.S. Economy 117
annex e
» Detailed REMI Model Simulation Results Table E-1 shows the detailed simulation results of the simultaneous simulation for the 23 super policy options, for each year from 2010 through 2020. Table E-1. Detailed Results of the Simultaneous Simulation Year
Total Employment (thousands of jobs)
Gross Domestic Product (billions of fixed 2007 dollars)
Output (billions of fixed 2007 dollars)
Population (thousands)
Real Disposable Personal Income (billions of fixed 2007 dollars)
PCE-Price Index (2000=100 [nation])
Differences from Baseline Levels with Simultaneous Implementation of the 23 Super Options 2010
147.80
–$0.35
–$0.23
0.00
$0.60
–0.10
2011
399.67
$5.32
$13.29
0.00
$10.09
–0.16
2012
572.83
$12.68
$26.63
0.00
$20.97
–0.24
2013
716.91
$18.83
$38.01
0.00
$25.41
–0.23
2014
914.50
$29.48
$56.56
0.00
$39.02
–0.32
2015
1,117.97
$41.34
$77.24
0.00
$52.79
–0.41
2016
1,334.19
$55.69
$101.99
0.00
$69.03
–0.54
2017
1,573.56
$73.72
$133.06
0.00
$88.56
–0.69 –0.87
2018
1,842.19
$96.28
$171.47
0.03
$110.37
2019
2,167.16
$125.43
$220.07
0.00
$136.87
–1.07
2020
2,523.95
$159.60
$276.65
0.03
$164.92
–1.29
n.a
$406.74
$737.98
n.a
$479.31
n.a.
Net Present Value
Levels After Implementation of the 23 Super Options 2010
172,909.2
$13,747.9
$21,148.8
311,755.9
$10,610.0
123.9
2011
173,821.3
$14,080.2
$21,697.7
315,180.6
$10,776.2
127.1
2012
175,536.6
$14,408.9
$22,235.4
318,619.5
$10,979.8
130.5
2013
177,320.7
$14,752.9
$22,797.8
322,074.9
$11,179.2
134.4
2014
179,231.9
$15,118.0
$23,394.8
325,544.5
$11,410.9
138.2 142.2
2015
180,761.3
$15,490.5
$24,005.2
329,026.0
$11,635.6
2016
182,211.3
$15,885.2
$24,653.9
332,511.8
$11,869.2
146.5
2017
183,493.5
$16,245.0
$25,288.7
336,004.1
$12,075.6
150.9
2018
184,868.4
$16,608.5
$25,919.8
339,505.1
$12,281.3
155.4
2019
186,328.8
$16,981.0
$26,559.1
343,010.4
$12,487.7
160.1
2020
187,380.0
$17,332.8
$27,160.9
346,511.1
$12,669.5
165.0
Percentage Changes from Baseline Levels 2010
0.086%
–0.003%
–0.001%
0.000%
0.006%
–0.077%
2011
0.231%
0.038%
0.061%
0.000%
0.094%
–0.127%
2012
0.327%
0.088%
0.120%
0.000%
0.191%
–0.181%
2013
0.406%
0.128%
0.167%
0.000%
0.228%
–0.170%
2014
0.513%
0.195%
0.242%
0.000%
0.343%
–0.233%
2015
0.622%
0.268%
0.323%
0.000%
0.456%
–0.286%
2016
0.738%
0.352%
0.415%
0.000%
0.585%
–0.365%
2017
0.865%
0.456%
0.529%
0.000%
0.739%
–0.453%
2018
1.007%
0.583%
0.666%
0.000%
0.907%
–0.554%
2019
1.177%
0.744%
0.836%
0.000%
1.108%
–0.661%
2020
1.365%
0.929%
1.029%
0.000%
1.319%
–0.774%
118 Johns Hopkins University and Center for Climate Strategies
Table E-2. Sectoral GDP Impacts of the 23 GHG Mitigation Policy Options—Simultaneous Simulation (billions of fixed 2007$) Sector Forestry; Fishing, hunting, trapping Logging
2010
2012
2015
1131, 1132, 114
NAICS Code
$3.222
$3.398
$2.658
2020 $0.752
$20.415
NPV
1133
$0.004
$0.011
$0.029
$0.106
$0.282
Support activities for agriculture and forestry
115
$1.034
$3.233
$4.570
$6.725
$34.701
Oil and gas extraction
211
–$1.193
–$2.545
–$4.598
–$7.236
–$34.356
Coal mining
2121
–$0.630
–$1.511
–$3.013
–$7.053
–$24.884
Metal ore mining
2122
$0.002
$0.008
$0.019
$0.067
$0.184
Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying
2123
–$0.048
–$0.122
–$0.238
–$0.463
–$1.841
Support activities for mining
213
–$0.287
–$0.769
–$1.420
–$2.229
–$10.391
Electric power generation, transmission, and distribution
2211
–$5.060
Natural gas distribution
2212
–$0.266
–$1.038
–$2.254
–$4.024
–$16.632
Water, sewage, and other systems
2213
–$0.002
–$0.005
$0.000
$0.108
$0.121
Construction
–$14.578 –$30.440
–$59.686 –$237.877
23
–$0.613
–$2.197
–$3.159
$0.615
–$16.296
Sawmills and wood preservation
3211
$0.005
$0.008
$0.020
$0.077
$0.207
Veneer, plywood, and engineered wood product manufacturing
3212
–$0.002
–$0.002
$0.011
$0.095
$0.172
Other wood product manufacturing
3219
–$0.002
$0.014
$0.063
$0.280
$0.668
Clay product and refractory manufacturing
3271
$0.002
$0.019
$0.042
$0.107
$0.350
Glass and glass product manufacturing
3272
$0.007
$0.044
$0.102
$0.282
$0.884
Cement and concrete product manufacturing
3273
–$0.030
–$0.087
–$0.129
–$0.011
–$0.719
Lime, gypsum product manufacturing; Other nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing
3274, 3279
–$0.005
–$0.006
$0.006
$0.115
$0.170 $0.640
Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy manufacturing
3311
$0.011
$0.036
$0.070
$0.207
Steel product manufacturing from purchased steel
3312
$0.001
$0.007
$0.017
$0.058
$0.163
Alumina and aluminum production and processing
3313
$0.007
$0.024
$0.043
$0.091
$0.350
Nonferrous metal (except aluminum) production and processing
3314
$0.006
$0.021
$0.044
$0.103
$0.365
Foundries
3315
$0.051
$0.103
$0.168
$0.293
$1.308
Forging and stamping
3321
$0.020
$0.046
$0.071
$0.125
$0.555
Cutlery and handtool manufacturing
3322
$0.004
$0.023
$0.044
$0.091
$0.348
Architectural and structural metals manufacturing
3323
–$0.027
–$0.069
–$0.087
$0.037
–$0.443
Boiler, tank, and shipping container manufacturing
3324
$0.001
$0.005
$0.012
$0.045
$0.116
Hardware manufacturing
3325
$0.001
$0.008
$0.019
$0.045
$0.154
Spring and wire product manufacturing
3326
$0.000
$0.005
$0.013
$0.044
$0.124
Machine shops; turned product; and screw, nut, and bolt manufacturing
3327
$0.004
$0.037
$0.086
$0.252
$0.759
Coating, engraving, heat treating, and allied activities
3328
–$0.010
–$0.005
$0.004
$0.065
$0.086
Other fabricated metal product mfg.
3329
$0.011
$0.048
$0.103
$0.287
$0.909
Agriculture, construction, and mining machinery manufacturing
3331
–$0.030
–$0.080
–$0.169
–$0.333
–$1.307
Industrial machinery manufacturing
3332
$0.138
$0.302
$0.457
$0.581
$3.300
Commercial and service industry machinery manufacturing
3333
–$0.002
$0.001
$0.013
$0.067
$0.145
Ventilation, heating, air–conditioning, and commercial refrigeration equipment manufacturing
3334
$0.101
$0.334
$0.719
$1.407
$5.509
Metalworking machinery manufacturing
3335
–$0.007
–$0.024
–$0.052
–$0.101
–$0.400
Engine, turbine, power transmission equipment manufacturing
3336
$0.384
$0.775
$1.361
$2.595
$10.750
Other general purpose machinery manufacturing
3339
–$0.005
–$0.019
–$0.036
$0.007
–$0.171
Impacts of Comprehensive Climate and Energy Policy Options on the U.S. Economy 119
Sector
NAICS Code
2010
2012
Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing
9341
–$0.019
–$0.044
2015
2020
–$0.149
$0.115
NPV –$0.632
Communications equipment manufacturing
3342
–$0.005
–$0.001
$0.031
$0.312
$0.548
Audio and video equipment manufacturing
3343
$0.005
$0.018
$0.040
$0.132
$0.383
Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing
3344
$0.033
$0.196
$0.416
$1.295
$3.818
Navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments manufacturing
3345
–$0.018
–$0.034
–$0.078
–$0.043
–$0.473
Manufacturing and reproducing magnetic and optical media
3346
$0.002
$0.014
$0.031
$0.086
$0.267
Electric lighting equipment manufacturing
3351
$0.034
$0.118
$0.232
$0.407
$1.712
Household appliance manufacturing
3352
$0.068
$0.220
$0.422
$0.767
$3.165
Electrical equipment manufacturing
3353
$0.040
$0.125
$0.221
$0.342
$1.588
Other electrical equipment and component manufacturing
3359
$0.037
$0.129
$0.271
$0.562
$2.105
Motor vehicle manufacturing
3361
$0.068
$0.409
$1.078
$3.149
$9.552
Motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing
3362
$0.001
$0.018
$0.048
$0.157
$0.442 $3.638
Motor vehicle parts manufacturing
3363
$0.050
$0.236
$0.469
$0.930
Aerospace product and parts manufacturing
3364
$0.006
$0.031
$0.068
$0.293
$0.741
Railroad rolling stock manufacturing
3365
$0.023
$0.019
$0.013
$0.008
$0.120
Ship and boat building
3366
$0.000
$0.008
$0.024
$0.090
$0.236
Other transportation equipment manufacturing
3369
$0.001
$0.012
$0.027
$0.081
$0.245
Household and institutional furniture and kitchen cabinet manufacturing
3371
$0.013
$0.089
$0.200
$0.491
$1.657
Office furniture (including fixtures) manufacturing
3372
–$0.014
–$0.044
–$0.086
–$0.149
–$0.647
Other furniture–related product manufacturing
3379
$0.004
$0.023
$0.055
$0.144
$0.463
Medical equipment and supplies manufacturing
3391
$0.012
$0.214
$0.668
$2.347
$6.362
Other miscellaneous manufacturing
3399
$0.029
$0.125
$0.254
$0.759
$2.334
Animal food manufacturing
3111
$0.002
$0.012
$0.026
$0.061
$0.210
Grain and oilseed milling
3112
$0.001
$0.011
$0.026
$0.088
$0.244
Sugar and confectionery product mfg.
3113
$0.002
$0.017
$0.042
$0.134
$0.385
Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufacturing
3114
$0.005
$0.033
$0.087
$0.277
$0.800
Dairy product manufacturing
3115
$0.002
$0.020
$0.056
$0.172
$0.500
Animal slaughtering and processing
3116
$0.007
$0.042
$0.105
$0.315
$0.939
Seafood product preparation and packaging
3117
$0.000
$0.004
$0.011
$0.036
$0.102
Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing
3118
$0.006
$0.042
$0.106
$0.309
$0.933
Other food manufacturing
3119
$0.006
$0.043
$0.108
$0.331
$0.980
Beverage manufacturing
3121
$0.011
$0.065
$0.165
$0.516
$1.512
Tobacco manufacturing
3122
$0.002
$0.018
$0.037
$0.075
$0.285
Fiber, yarn, and thread mills
3131
$0.001
$0.008
$0.017
$0.036
$0.133
Fabric mills
3132
$0.005
$0.023
$0.040
$0.074
$0.309
Textile and fabric finishing and fabric coating mills
3133
$0.002
$0.011
$0.020
$0.036
$0.152
Textile furnishings mills
3141
$0.006
$0.036
$0.086
$0.251
$0.764
Other textile product mills
3149
$0.006
$0.021
$0.036
$0.068
$0.284
Apparel knitting mills
3151
$0.002
$0.010
$0.020
$0.049
$0.170
Cut and sew apparel manufacturing
3152
$0.017
$0.082
$0.182
$0.418
$1.490
Apparel accessories and other apparel manufacturing
3159
$0.001
$0.005
$0.010
$0.023
$0.080
3161, 3169
$0.001
$0.007
$0.011
$0.027
$0.095
3162
$0.002
$0.013
$0.031
$0.089
$0.276
Leather, hide tanning, finishing; Other leather, allied product manufacturing Footwear manufacturing
120 Johns Hopkins University and Center for Climate Strategies
2010
2012
2015
Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills
Sector
NAICS Code 3221
$0.012
$0.081
$0.198
Converted paper product manufacturing
2020
NPV
$0.607
$1.790 $1.270
3222
$0.007
$0.061
$0.146
$0.413
Printing and related support activities
323
$0.007
$0.074
$0.178
$0.448
$1.467
Petroleum and coal products manufacturing
324
–$0.397
–$0.824
–$1.650
–$3.632
–$13.639
Basic chemical manufacturing
3251
$0.011
$0.139
$0.385
$2.299
$4.499
Resin, synthetic rubber, and artificial synthetic fibers and filaments manufacturing
3252
$0.010
$0.065
$0.163
$0.537
$1.522
Pesticide, fertilizer, and other agricultural chemical manufacturing
3253
$0.042
$0.083
–$0.008
–$0.159
–$0.070
Pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing
3254
$0.065
$0.430
$1.009
$2.403
$8.257
Paint, coating, and adhesive manufacturing
3255
$0.000
$0.010
$0.033
$0.127
$0.327
Soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparation manufacturing
3256
$0.015
$0.096
$0.244
$0.767
$2.242
Other chemical product and preparation manufacturing
3259
–$0.007
$0.010
$0.052
$0.229
$0.538
Plastics product manufacturing
3261
$0.010
$0.144
$0.396
$1.335
$3.698
Rubber product manufacturing
3262
$0.004
$0.039
$0.090
$0.233
$0.762
42
$0.203
$1.649
$3.732
$10.725
$32.715
44–45
$0.096
$2.093
$5.403
$17.546
$49.675 $5.275
Wholesale trade Retail trade Air transportation
481
$0.031
$0.244
$0.623
$1.669
Rail transportation
482
$1.461
$1.303
$1.087
$0.765
$9.411
Water transportation
483
–$0.001
$0.001
$0.005
$0.024
$0.055
Truck transportation
484
–$1.799
–$1.578
–$1.240
$0.159
–$9.603
Couriers and messengers
492
$0.011
$0.112
$0.301
$0.959
$2.745
Transit and ground passenger transportation
485
$1.367
$4.126
$8.295
$15.304
$63.393
Pipeline transportation
486
–$0.419
–$0.890
–$1.591
–$4.021
–$13.857
487, 488
$0.018
$0.052
$0.107
$0.291
$0.942
Scenic and sightseeing transportation and support activities for transportation Warehousing and storage
493
–$0.039
$0.030
$0.145
$0.532
$1.323
Newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishers
5111
$0.031
$0.200
$0.399
$0.757
$3.008
Software publishers
5112
–$0.082
–$0.271
–$0.706
–$1.408
–$5.483
Motion picture and sound recording industries
512
$0.023
$0.169
$0.449
$1.347
$4.007
Internet and other information services
516, 518, 519
$0.029
$0.309
$1.010
$3.410
$9.414
Broadcasting (except internet)
515
$0.011
$0.107
$0.293
$0.878
$2.597
Telecommunications
517
$0.029
$0.709
$2.186
$7.077
$19.886
521, 522
$1.446
$4.689
$10.693
$24.969
$87.938
Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles
Monetary authorities, credit intermediation
525
$0.011
$0.087
$0.232
$0.658
$2.007
Securities, commodity contracts, and other financial investments and related activities
523
$0.252
$1.875
$5.653
$17.502
$51.110
Insurance carriers
5241
$0.020
$0.334
$0.845
$2.087
$6.880
Agencies, brokerages, and other insurance related activities
5242
$0.014
$0.242
$0.677
$1.944
$5.862
Real estate
531
$0.466
$3.562
$9.622
$27.742
$84.112
Automotive equipment rental and leasing
5321
$0.002
$0.033
$0.091
$0.252
$0.777
5322, 5323
$0.010
$0.053
$0.137
$0.410
$1.225
Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing
5324
$0.032
$0.033
$0.050
$0.179
$0.549
Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets
533
–$0.405
–$0.696
–$1.053
–$0.625
–$6.779
Legal services
5411
–$0.007
$0.227
$0.671
$1.954
$5.799
Consumer goods rental and general rental centers
Impacts of Comprehensive Climate and Energy Policy Options on the U.S. Economy 121
Sector Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll services Architectural, engineering, and related services
NAICS Code
2010
2012
2015
2020
NPV
5412
$0.056
$0.248
$0.576
$1.433
$4.794
5413
–$0.049
–$0.081
–$0.157
$0.417
–$0.254
Specialized design services
5414
$0.013
$0.063
$0.152
$0.440
$1.353
Computer systems design and related services
5415
–$0.097
–$0.286
–$0.604
–$1.225
–4.762
Management, scientific, and technical consulting services
5416
$0.274
$0.665
$1.380
$3.098
$11.312
5417, 5419
–$0.004
$0.284
$0.852
$2.933
$7.944
5418
$0.007
$0.100
$0.255
$0.708
$2.185
55
–$0.039
$0.446
$1.314
4.411
$12.120
5611, 5612
–$0.011
$0.046
$0.220
$0.929
$2.241
5613
–$0.015
$0.103
$0.378
$1.334
$3.527
5614, 5616, 5619
$0.027
$0.230
$0.636
$1.961
$5.719
Travel arrangement & reservation services
5615
$0.024
$0.074
$0.149
$0.321
$1.193
Services to buildings and dwellings
5617
$0.004
$0.107
$0.337
$1.152
$3.158
Waste collection; Waste treatment and disposal and waste management services
562
$0.701
$2.170
$5.074
$9.188
$37.396
Elementary and secondary schools; Junior colleges, colleges, universities, and professional schools; Other educational services
61
$0.008
$0.158
$0.486
$1.414
$4.197
Offices of health practitioners
6211–6213
$0.284
$2.517
$6.526
$17.506
$55.221
Outpatient, laboratory, and other ambulatory care services
6214–6216
$0.024
$0.232
$0.637
$1.778
$5.456
Home health care services
6219
$0.008
$0.088
$0.266
$0.766
$2.298
Hospitals
622
$0.038
$0.447
$1.301
$3.512
$10.896
Nursing care facilities
6231
$0.020
$0.118
$0.307
$0.809
$2.579
Residential care facilities
6232, 6233, 6239
$0.015
$0.107
$0.301
$0.848
$2.589
Individual, family, community, and vocational rehabilitation services
6241–6243
$0.015
$0.125
$0.375
$1.073
$3.242
6244
$0.007
$0.063
$0.188
$0.542
$1.626
7111, 7113, 7114
$0.006
$0.042
$0.110
$0.297
$0.935
Spectator sports
7112
$0.006
$0.059
$0.159
$0.451
$1.379
Scientific research and development services; Other professional, scientific, and technical services Advertising and related services Management of companies and enterprises Office administrative services; Facilities support services Employment services Business support services; Investigation and security services; Other support services
Child day care services Performing arts companies; Promoters of events, and agents and managers Independent artists, writers, and performers
7115
$0.011
$0.040
$0.096
$0.247
$0.810
Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions
712
$0.001
$0.012
$0.036
$0.107
$0.316
Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries
713
$0.095
$0.413
$1.042
$3.046
$9.257
Accommodation
721
$0.061
$0.321
$0.816
$2.197
$6.958
Food services and drinking places
722
$0.114
$0.584
$1.460
$3.760
$12.248
Automotive repair and maintenance
8111
$0.018
$0.168
$0.453
$1.194
$3.787
Electronic and precision equipment repair and maintenance
8112
$0.007
$0.036
$0.094
$0.244
$0.781
Commercial and industrial equipment (except automotive and electronic) repair and maintenance
8113
$0.032
$0.120
$0.315
$0.791
$2.593
Personal and household goods repair and maintenance
8114
$0.014
$0.070
$0.171
$0.486
$1.508
Personal care services
8121
$0.057
$0.321
$0.816
$2.229
$7.013
Death care services
8122
$0.001
$0.012
$0.033
$0.091
$0.284
Drycleaning and laundry services
8123
$0.019
$0.097
$0.228
$0.620
$1.964
Other personal services
8129
$0.050
$0.292
$0.778
$2.258
$6.844
122 Johns Hopkins University and Center for Climate Strategies
Sector
NAICS Code
2010
2012
2015
Religious organizations; Grantmaking and giving services, and social advocacy organizations
8131–8133
$0.017
$0.120
$0.336
$0.961
Civic, social, professional, and similar organizations
8134, 8139
$0.008
$0.069
$0.191
$0.548
$1.655
814
$0.004
$0.078
$0.201
$0.492
$1.628
$1.673
$17.941
$48.274
$164.317
$453.227
Private households Total*
2020
* The total represents the sum of all the sectoral effects. The totals shown in this table differ from the simultaneous solutions shown in the last row of Table 3-5. The gap between the two is farm value added and government compensation, as well as rounding error. NAICS = North American Industry Classification System.
Table E-3. Sectoral Employment Impacts of the 23 GHG Mitigation Policy Options—Simultaneous Simulation (in thousands) Sector Forestry; Fishing, hunting, trapping Logging
NAICS Code 1131, 1132, 114
2012
2015
51.537
40.358
2020 10.892
0.032
0.106
0.261
0.867
Support activities for agriculture and forestry
115
103.533
316.416
435.074
601.263
Oil and gas extraction
211
–7.038
–14.791
–26.331
–40.016
Coal mining
2121
–3.630
–8.594
–16.946
–38.598
Metal ore mining
2122
0.009
0.037
0.061
0.175
Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying
2123
–0.562
–1.447
–2.835
–5.468
Support activities for mining
213
–3.223
–8.296
–14.620
–21.144
Electric power generation, transmission, and distribution
2211
–9.707
–26.161
–49.773
–84.145
Natural gas distribution
2212
–1.195
–4.628
–10.006
–17.545
Water, sewage, and other systems
2213
–0.026
–0.057
–0.050
0.679
23
–12.612
–45.175
–67.702
–8.885
Construction
1133
2010 48.844
Sawmills and wood preservation
3211
0.062
0.089
0.209
0.779
Veneer, plywood, and engineered wood product manufacturing
3212
–0.037
–0.051
0.064
0.969
Other wood product manufacturing
3219
–0.033
0.175
0.753
2.963
Clay product and refractory manufacturing
3271
0.026
0.176
0.355
0.801
Glass and glass product manufacturing
3272
0.040
0.232
0.474
1.070
Cement and concrete product manufacturing
3273
–0.367
–1.045
–1.563
–0.567
Lime, gypsum product manufacturing; Other nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing
3274, 3279
–0.042
–0.065
–0.014
0.554
Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy manufacturing
3311
0.042
0.116
0.171
0.373
Steel product manufacturing from purchased steel
3312
0.008
0.051
0.113
0.365
Alumina and aluminum production and processing
3313
0.052
0.162
0.266
0.504
Nonferrous metal (except aluminum) production and processing
3314
0.055
0.176
0.281
0.475
Foundries
3315
0.453
0.832
1.189
1.678
Forging and stamping
3321
0.172
0.366
0.535
0.821
Cutlery and handtool manufacturing
3322
0.033
0.184
0.332
0.591
Architectural and structural metals manufacturing
3323
–0.345
–0.896
–1.189
0.115
Boiler, tank, and shipping container manufacturing
3324
0.007
0.042
0.082
0.325
Hardware manufacturing
3325
0.004
0.040
0.088
0.197
Spring and wire product manufacturing
3326
–0.006
0.044
0.114
0.319
Machine shops; turned product; and screw, nut, and bolt manufacturing
3327
0.036
0.355
0.706
1.623
Coating, engraving, heat treating, & allied activities
3328
–0.107
–0.078
–0.031
0.280
Other fabricated metal product manufacturing
3329
0.090
0.404
0.846
2.204
Agriculture, construction, & mining machinery mfg.
3331
–0.229
–0.552
–1.024
–1.625
Industrial machinery manufacturing
3332
0.961
2.014
2.871
3.306
NPV $2.909
Impacts of Comprehensive Climate and Energy Policy Options on the U.S. Economy 123
Sector
2010
2012
3333
–0.023
–0.001
0.095
0.474
Ventilation, heating, air–conditioning, and commercial refrigeration equipment manufacturing
3334
0.836
2.546
4.854
7.690
Metalworking machinery manufacturing
3335
–0.086
–0.274
–0.560
–0.986
Engine, turbine, power transmission equipment manufacturing
3336
1.975
3.520
5.199
7.353
Other general purpose machinery manufacturing
3339
–0.040
–0.150
–0.268
–0.095
Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing
3341
–0.022
–0.037
–0.091
0.003
Communications equipment manufacturing
3342
–0.019
–0.013
0.070
0.601
Audio and video equipment manufacturing
3343
0.049
0.152
0.275
0.601
Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing
3344
0.064
0.317
0.497
1.111
Navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments manufacturing
3345
–0.109
–0.215
–0.463
–0.387
Manufacturing and reproducing magnetic and optical media
3346
0.011
0.079
0.160
0.391
Commercial and service industry machinery manufacturing
NAICS Code
2015
2020
Electric lighting equipment manufacturing
3351
0.325
0.989
1.695
2.320
Household appliance manufacturing
3352
0.296
0.849
1.354
1.802
Electrical equipment manufacturing
3353
0.361
1.035
1.669
2.177
Other electrical equipment and component manufacturing
3359
0.244
0.810
1.540
2.714
Motor vehicle manufacturing
3361
0.124
0.637
1.343
2.918
Motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing
3362
0.007
0.248
0.608
1.651
Motor vehicle parts manufacturing
3363
0.376
1.712
3.209
5.713
Aerospace product and parts manufacturing
3364
0.030
0.166
0.292
1.182
Railroad rolling stock manufacturing
3365
0.315
0.214
0.103
0.006
Ship and boat building
3366
0.001
0.089
0.211
0.598
Other transportation equipment manufacturing
3369
0.015
0.095
0.187
0.405
Household and institutional furniture and kitchen cabinet manufacturing
3371
0.181
1.248
2.589
5.619
Office furniture (including fixtures) manufacturing
3372
–0.126
–0.367
–0.676
–1.074
Other furniture related product manufacturing
3379
0.039
0.254
0.535
1.169
Medical equipment and supplies manufacturing
3391
0.058
1.091
3.011
8.623
Other miscellaneous manufacturing
3399
0.232
0.855
1.405
2.984
Animal food manufacturing
3111
0.042
0.142
0.233
0.364
Grain and oilseed milling
3112
0.016
0.096
0.188
0.434
Sugar and confectionery product manufacturing
3113
0.015
0.098
0.200
0.453
Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufacturing
3114
0.030
0.204
0.429
0.998
Dairy product manufacturing
3115
0.021
0.170
0.407
1.050
Animal slaughtering and processing
3116
0.122
0.695
1.627
4.336
Seafood product preparation and packaging
3117
0.008
0.059
0.140
0.347
Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing
3118
0.048
0.394
0.926
2.423
Other food manufacturing
3119
0.036
0.238
0.537
1.392
Beverage manufacturing
3121
0.046
0.257
0.545
1.325
Tobacco manufacturing
3122
0.004
0.028
0.056
0.110
Fiber, yarn, and thread mills
3131
0.025
0.121
0.230
0.481
Fabric mills
3132
0.053
0.269
0.502
0.938
Textile and fabric finishing and fabric coating mills
3133
0.031
0.152
0.250
0.344
Textile furnishings mills
3141
0.040
0.248
0.531
1.268
124 Johns Hopkins University and Center for Climate Strategies
Sector Other textile product mills
NAICS Code 3149
2010 0.128
2012
2015
0.413
0.645
2020 1.107
Apparel knitting mills
3151
0.024
0.111
0.201
0.411
Cut and sew apparel manufacturing
3152
0.220
1.004
1.947
3.618
Apparel accessories and other apparel manufacturing
3159
0.020
0.091
0.173
0.357
3161, 3169
0.033
0.132
0.184
0.388
Footwear manufacturing
3162
0.065
0.311
0.662
1.683
Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills
3221
0.026
0.183
0.375
0.899
Converted paper product manufacturing
2.777
Leather, hide tanning, finishing; Other leather, allied product manufacturing
3222
0.065
0.533
1.169
Printing and related support activities
323
0.098
1.005
2.339
5.432
Petroleum and coal products manufacturing
324
–0.864
–1.570
–2.612
–4.164
Basic chemical manufacturing
3251
0.008
0.282
0.669
3.778
Resin, synthetic rubber, and artificial synthetic fibers and filaments manufacturing
3252
0.032
0.200
0.421
1.102
Pesticide, fertilizer, and other agricultural chemical manufacturing
3253
0.189
0.349
–0.054
–0.632
Pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing
3254
0.268
1.706
3.787
8.202
Paint, coating, and adhesive manufacturing
3255
–0.007
0.036
0.126
0.470
Soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparation manufacturing
3256
0.036
0.221
0.477
1.131
Other chemical product and preparation manufacturing
3259
–0.042
0.020
0.146
0.560
Plastics product manufacturing
3261
0.050
0.909
2.214
6.172
Rubber product manufacturing
3262
0.032
0.327
0.659
1.358
Wholesale trade Retail trade Air transportation
42
1.267
9.915
19.832
46.729
44–45
1.107
30.990
70.260
185.051
481
0.144
1.047
2.344
5.027
Rail transportation
482
10.444
9.279
7.877
5.958
Water transportation
483
–0.010
0.003
0.016
0.086
Truck transportation
484
–28.009
–25.778
–19.990
1.055
Couriers and messengers
492
0.116
1.149
2.798
7.857
Transit and ground passenger transportation
485
39.012
115.254
226.145
395.979
Pipeline transportation
486
–1.575
–3.198
–5.402
–12.283
487, 488
0.383
1.093
2.288
6.170
Warehousing and storage
493
–0.857
0.169
1.315
4.321
Newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishers
5111
0.336
2.479
5.702
12.412
Software publishers
5112
–0.178
–0.517
–1.136
–1.822 8.034
Scenic and sightseeing transportation and support activities for transportation
Motion picture and sound recording industries Internet and other information services Broadcasting (except internet) Telecommunications
512
0.200
1.412
3.319
516, 518, 519
0.117
1.157
3.109
7.649
515
0.111
1.054
2.639
6.804
517
0.053
1.801
4.810
12.107
521, 522
9.017
27.975
60.321
126.874
Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles
525
0.064
0.536
1.432
3.954
Securities, commodity contracts, and other financial investments and related activities
523
1.622
10.920
28.397
69.044
Monetary authorities, credit intermediation
Insurance carriers
5241
0.165
2.880
7.338
18.045
Agencies, brokerages, and other insurance related activities
5242
0.124
2.278
5.858
14.636
Real estate
531
1.730
14.216
36.757
97.851
Impacts of Comprehensive Climate and Energy Policy Options on the U.S. Economy 125
Sector Automotive equipment rental and leasing
NAICS Code
2010
2012
2015
2020
5321
0.011
0.403
1.003
2.275
5322, 5323
0.370
1.876
4.106
10.026
5324
0.274
0.234
0.245
0.811
Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets
533
–0.075
–0.123
–0.176
–0.114
Legal services
5411
–0.115
2.420
7.150
20.291
Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll services
5412
1.015
4.535
10.529
25.577
Architectural, engineering, and related services
5413
–0.692
–1.280
–2.775
2.927
Consumer goods rental and general rental centers Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing
Specialized design services
5414
0.249
1.198
2.666
6.888
Computer systems design and related services
5415
–1.406
–4.201
–9.144
–19.639
Management, scientific, and technical consulting services
5416
3.301
8.216
17.811
41.730
5417, 5419
–0.073
2.113
5.732
16.968
5418
0.073
1.162
2.928
7.856
55
–0.307
2.066
5.571
16.619
5611, 5612
–0.125
0.353
1.657
6.229
Scientific research and development services; Other professional, scientific, and technical services Advertising and related services Management of companies and enterprises Office administrative services; Facilities support services Employment services
5613
–0.400
2.404
8.569
28.440
Business support services; Investigation and security services; Other support services
5614, 5616, 5619
0.487
4.536
11.254
29.645
Travel arrangement and reservation services
5615
0.484
1.440
2.675
4.983
Services to buildings and dwellings
5617
–0.044
3.812
11.072
33.634
Waste collection; Waste treatment and disposal and waste management services
562
6.626
19.217
44.338
75.011
Elementary and secondary schools; Junior colleges, colleges, universities, and professional schools; Other educational services
61
0.168
5.117
15.343
42.179
Offices of health practitioners
6211–6213
3.079
26.568
65.442
159.590
Outpatient, laboratory, and other ambulatory care services
6214–6216
0.301
3.105
8.028
20.044
6219
0.176
2.021
6.066
16.760
Home health care services Hospitals
622
0.495
6.666
18.079
42.505
Nursing care facilities
6231
0.650
3.687
8.830
20.271
Residential care facilities
6232, 6233, 6239
0.492
3.412
9.611
26.517
Individual, family, community, and vocational rehabilitation services
6241–6243
0.557
4.756
13.633
34.211
6244
0.295
2.980
8.555
21.978
7111, 7113, 7114
0.192
1.403
3.652
9.392
Child day care services Performing arts companies; Promoters of events, and agents and managers Spectator sports
7112
0.078
0.926
2.563
7.091
Independent artists, writers, and performers
7115
0.665
2.487
5.507
13.251
Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions
712
0.044
0.350
0.953
2.512
Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries
713
1.817
7.452
16.945
41.949
Accommodation
721
1.017
5.359
12.875
31.474
Food services and drinking places
722
4.224
21.169
47.680
105.287
Automotive repair and maintenance
8111
0.362
3.845
9.813
23.276
Electronic and precision equipment repair and maintenance
8112
0.084
0.397
0.976
2.255
Commercial and industrial equipment (except automotive and electronic) repair and maintenance
8113
0.391
1.336
3.086
6.158
126  Johns Hopkins University and Center for Climate Strategies
Sector
NAICS Code
2010
2012
2015
2020
Personal and household goods repair and maintenance
8114
0.225
1.024
2.210
5.198
Personal care services
8121
2.126
11.693
28.139
69.494
Death care services
8122
0.009
0.209
0.536
1.233
Drycleaning and laundry services
8123
0.490
2.520
5.469
13.341
Other personal services
8129
0.443
2.441
5.885
14.524
Religious organizations; Grantmaking and giving services, and social advocacy organizations
8131–8133
0.696
5.174
14.424
40.254
Civic, social, professional, and similar organizations
8134, 8139
0.184
1.704
4.364
11.060
814
0.533
11.463
29.222
70.125
186.161
682.760
1,281.417
2,706.294
Private households Total
* The total represents the sum of all the sectoral effects. The totals shown in this table differ from the simultaneous solutions shown in the last row of Table 3-6. The gap between the two is public employment, as well as rounding error. NAICS = North American Industry Classification System.