THE CIRCLE
APRIL 2021 1
Introduction “If you’re serious about becoming a writer” a famous author said “sit down and write a hundred stories”.
• Pebbles: Is a memory about one of my more unusual clients from when I was still practicing in Cape Town.
Which turned out more difficult than I thought. I have no shortage of • Unexpected outcomes: Some topics, the challenge is to personal reflections on how communicate your thoughts clearly the Corona virus has and still in the least number of words. is impacting our daily lives. And I hope you won’t mind if I share • A raincoat with a check: This my first attempts with you, my family is a documentary about the and friends. rise of one of the world’s most iconic fashion brands. In this first edition of The Circle I am sharing a mixed bag of three very different items:
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1 Pebbles
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Pebbles Do you remember Sandra’s Bridal Boutique in the old Bellville mall? I can still picture it clearly. That cream and maroon wedding parlour behind the sweeping gold curtains. And the photographs of brides and wedding groups in exotic locations. The rows of dresses along the walls. The mannequins posing in shadowy corners.
I also vividly recall madame le noces le mariage. A tall woman on the far side of forty, her height enhanced by her beehive hairdo and high heels. Her earrings were long and shiny, dress rings gird her redtipped fingers. She wore mascara, red lipstick, a long dress always, and black stockings. She speaks in a deep contralto, an engaging and perceptive woman.
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Pebbles Her brides come from farming communities in the Boland, areas producing the cash crops of table grapes, export fruits, wheat, wine, and maize. The same families have owned the magnificent farms in these mountains and valleys for generations.
Some brides arrive with photographs of a wedding dress, cut from a magazine and kept folded in a diary or bible for years. These are their father’s daughters, groomed in the best schools in Paarl, Bloemfontein, Potchefstroom and Cape Town. Rolls of cash from father’s back pockets ensure nothing is spared to provide the best wedding for mother and daughter.
These brides are expected to marry for life, and promising young men from other farming families are preferred. Behind closed doors, many of these weddings, given the wealth of the farming estates involved, are family contracts negotiated between dynasties.
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In a rear area back room, six busy seamstresses bring the designs to life. The dresses, bridesmaids’ outfits and men’s waistcoats are created from satin, charmeuse, chiffon, organza and tulle. The lace is guipure, Chantilly and Lyon, imported from Europe and the east. Fabric buttons and clasps come from Thailand. The first fitting is a moment of truth, a rite of passage where the prospective bride first realises that the fairy tale has suddenly come true. She will be leaving the protective world of the family home to embark on a new life with a new person, to manage her own household. The proprietor is expert in soothing the doubts and fears of tearful brides, creating word pictures of the wonderful life ahead. In the season she often has three or four weddings to supervise on a Saturday and will travel many kilometres in her small van, to dress the brides and bridesmaids.
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Pebbles After twenty years, she is one of the most successful businesswomen in her community. She shares a modest townhouse in Brackenfell with her husband, pensioned off after an industrial accident and not mobile. There are no children. Their social life revolves around family and she is too tired for church on Sundays. She dreams of travelling on a cruise ship, or staying in a fine hotel, or going to the opera, but who would care for her husband? She doesn’t have a close friend to travel with her, and the family would not approve of her travelling alone.
So she buys pebbles. Diamonds, emeralds, ruby, saffire, and turquoise. In her favourite settings of pave, halo, bezel and gypsy. From jewellers and pawnbrokers around the city, and usually for cash. At night, when her husband falls asleep, she takes the velvet display trays from the safe. She selects a dozen rings and places them on the fingers of each hand. She gently turns her hands from side to side to see the pebbles sparkle in the moonlight.
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2 Unexpected outcomes
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Unexpected outcomes Medical authorities, scenario planners and science fiction writers have long predicted the likelihood of a global pandemic, driven by higher rates of international travel and the growing concentration of people in megacities. Countries started hearing alerts from China about the COVID-19 pandemic only weeks before it spread globally. When it first appeared, many countries were slow to research the threat or develop a policy response. In the short-term the probability of a major virus attack was discounted or denied.
And so with COVID. Now in April 2021 there are over 1100 COVID vaccines in various stages of development. Nations speak of achieving herd immunity. Yet to date three million people have died from COVID-19. India is currently in crisis with over 200,000 deaths. The global recession is likely to continue as the virus mutates. Those nations hoping for herd immunity are proceeding on the basis that their economies will recover from the coronavirus outbreak.
And we were warned. There have been several precedents of virus attacks in the past 20 or 30 years. AIDS, SARS and Ebola provided examples of transmission of viruses and the appearance of multi-drug resistant varieties of bacteria. Medical science was able to neutralise or deal with them. 6
How the corona epidemic is changing our world ▪
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Self Sufficiency: Every country has tried to become more selfsufficient, reducing reliance on others as suppliers and customers. Many rich countries are following a “My country first” policy which threatens the stability of coalitions including the European Union. Borders are being more strictly policed. Poor countries are trying to ally themselves with one or more strong countries. Countries are also investing in protecting their environment and stocks of natural resources.
Social welfare systems and monetary grants to reduce poverty have emerged. Direct taxes and wealth taxes are increasing. Pressure for universal income grants has also increased, with the financial burden falling on the wealthy.
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Increased investment in health care: Responding to public demand, government and the private sector are continually improving their health care systems, in anticipation of another pandemic at any time.
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Insurance: The Force Majeure rules in the insurance industry have been reviewed. Insurance companies are finding new ways to cover themselves for catastrophes. 6
How the corona epidemic is changing our world ▪
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Technology: The 4th industrial revolution is accelerating and technology continues to impact all facets of life. Online education: School, college and professional development education is moving online. New supporting technology is emerging. More people are teaching and learning online. Changing beliefs: Increasing awareness of personal vulnerability is driving more cautious and inward-looking lifestyles and challenging belief systems. Families and communities are binding together to share and conserve in times of scarcity. Nations and corporations are paying more attention to risk management, environmental scanning and scenario planning models.
Personal level ▪
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Increased focus on personal health, hygiene and fitness: Hand washing, social distancing, and ongoing immunity practices are part of daily life. Ritual greetings of handshaking, cheek kissing and friendly embraces has decreased. Remote working: Is widely accepted and adopted by employers and employees, in most professions and every geographic area. A significant reduction in office space and increased use of home offices has created opportunities for developers. New KPI’S are being used to measure remote performance. 6
How the corona epidemic is changing our world
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Isolation: Self-isolation is now normal and adopted by individuals as the need arises. Remote living: Online shopping is normal. Cash transactions have been replaced by cards, chips and digital scans as payment methods. Personal transport needs have reduced and taxi services are widely used. Artificial Intelligence (SIRI) is used in household management. Social networking: There has been an increase in social networking, embracing new technologies to provide more social experiences in the home. People create online personalities. The home entertainment and home leisure industries have exploded. Video streaming services are adding new experiences like world travel and exploring space, using new virtual reality digital technologies. Venues providing live entertainment, sports and conferences have gone digital to survive. Athletes and musicians have adapted to playing to empty venues. 7
3 A raincoat with a check
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A raincoat with a check When British textile technician Thomas Burberry developed a waterproof fabric in the 1870’s, he never dreamed it would grow into a global family business producing iconic high-quality rainwear. In World War 1 Burberry won a contract to supply trench coats to British army officers. After the war, the Burberry trench coat became an essential accessory for celebrities in Britain, America and Europe.
In the 1920’s the company began to brand the lining of their raincoats with the Burberry check, a distinctive marmalade coloured design, one of the few designs registered as a trade mark. By 1970 Burberry, still a family business, was Britain’s top raincoat producer. The Burberry name enjoyed the same brand recognition as Rolls Royce and Harrods.
The Japanese fashion market discovered Burberry in the late 1970s and the family licenced distribution rights to a Japanese company. Over the next 10 years the brand enjoyed phenomenal growth in Asia, while sales in Britain and America remained static. By 1985, the Far East accounted for 75% of Burberry’s sales. By this time counterfeit Burberry garments could be found on every street corner in Asia at much lower prices. Sales in Asia started to slow down. Burberry continued producing the same standard raincoat lines each year and exporting them into the saturated Asian market, where they had to be marked down or re-imported into Europe and sold at a discount.
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Outside Asia, the brand hadn’t been introduced to a new generation of customers. Young people in Britain were not wearing Burberry. They associated Burberry with an earlier age, a garment worn by their parents and grandparents. By 1995 Burberry was losing money and close to insolvency. The company’s directors - mainly family knew something had to be done - but what?
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A new CEO In 1997, after three years of losses, Burberry persuaded an American woman, Rose Marie Bravo, to leave her job as CEO of Saks of 5th Avenue, and join Burberry as managing director.
Burberry products were high quality but expensive, and the customer base was declining every year.
Her decision astonished the US market, who couldn’t understand why she had left her well paid high-profile job to run a failing business with an aging, tired and worn out raincoat brand.
In the United Kingdom there were too many small shops carrying the brand. Said Bravo: “We were selling in 20 small shops in Knightsbridge alone, but we weren’t in Harrods”.
In Asia Burberry was running at a loss.
Sales in the United States enjoyed good margins but volumes were low and prospects for major sales growth were poor. Most Americans favour local labels and “buy American”. As Burberry’s problems emerged, Bravo was tempted to abandon the project and return to the United States. “Burberry was a mess,” she said. “I spent many evenings in tears. My parents visited me and asked: ‘Why did you leave Fifth Avenue for this?” 7
Make-over Ms Bravo told the Board to close down operations in Asia and move out of the UK family outfitters markets. She said Burberry needed a drastic make-over of its product range to broaden its appeal to British and American customers. She had many good ideas about new products. There are many items apart from raincoats that customers can wear in cold wet British weather.
She cancelled the contracts with small UK retailers, and negotiated a listing for Burberry in Harrods and other exclusive retailers. Ms Bravo wanted greater control and influence over the end customer. She designed and opened her own Burberry stores throughout the UK. The flagship is in Oxford Street in London, and the network now consists of 475 stores in cities and airports around the world.
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The target market But Ms. Bravo felt that these changes would not be enough to turn Burberry around. She knew that the biggest and most freespending market for fashion clothing is professional women between the ages of 25 and 35.
Ms. Bravo developed products aimed at this lucrative market. She launched a range of fashion items including cloaks, scarves, bags and even bikinis, which captured the youth market and resulted in huge sales growth for Burberry.
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The target market Rosemary Bravo’s retail genius transformed the Burberry brand image from raincoats with a check, into glamorous fashion. Burberry became the leading fashion brand in the United Kingdom and the company listed on the London Stock Exchange. Ms Bravo returned to the United States and became a Director of New York jeweller Tiffany and Co.. The Burberry brand was relaunched into the US market where it became an overnight sensation and achieved huge success. Today Burberry is one of the most iconic British fashion brands in the world, and one of the most valuable luxury personal goods brands worldwide.
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