Charts & Trends Centrale Bank of Aruba Aug 29, 2012

C ENTRALE B ANK VAN A RUBA

CHARTS & TRENDS

Research Department August 29, 2012

Contents 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.36

Real sector Nominal turnover tax (BBO) Real turnover tax (BBO) - lagged one month Nominal wage tax Real wage tax - lagged one month Inflation Aruba (Twelve-month average) Inflation Aruba (End of period) Inflation differential 12-month average and end of period Inflation USA (Twelve-month average) Inflation differential Aruba with USA (Twelve-month average) Aruba inflation excluding energy and food (Twelve-month average) Aruba inflation excluding energy (Twelve-month average) USA inflation excluding energy (Twelve-month average) Aruba-Food and non-alcoholic beverage (Twelve-month average) Aruba-Housing (Twelve-month average) Aruba-Household operation (Twelve-month average) Aruba-Transport (Twelve-month average) Aruba-Food component (Twelve-month average) USA-Food component (Twelve-month average) Aruba-Maintenance and repair of the dwelling (Twelve-month average) Unemployment rate Severance insurance payments Workers' remittances payments Population AZV-receipts AOV/AWW-receipts Stay-over visitors Visitor's nights Airport arrivals corrected for resident arrivals Resident arrivals Airline load factor Average nights stayed Cruise passengers Ship calls Occupancy rate-total Occupancy rate-hotels Occupancy rate-timeshare

1-3 1-3 1-3 1-3 1-4 1-4 1-4 1-4 1-4 1-4

1.37 1.38 1.39 1.40 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.53

1-4 1.54 1-4 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-5 1-5

1.55 1.56 1.57 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.61 1.62 1.63 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.67

Nominal revenue per available room-total Real revenue per available room-total Nominal revenue per available room-hotel Real revenue per available room-hotel Nominal revenue per available room-timeshare Real revenue per available room-timeshare Nominal average daily rate-total Real average daily rate-total Nominal average daily rate-hotel Real average daily rate-hotel Nominal average daily rate-timeshare Real average daily rate-timeshare Nominal tourism receipts Real tourism receipts Nominal tourism expenditure Real tourism expenditure Nominal tourism receipts (Commercial banks and CBA) Real tourism receipts (Commercial banks and CBA) Nominal hotel room tax/tourist levy Real hotel room tax/tourist levy - lagged one month Nominal gambling licenses Real gambling licenses - lagged on month Water Electricity Gas Container transport ASTEC Unleaded premium gasoline prices Diesel prices New commercial water connection New commercial water disconection Index of construction

1-9 1-9 1-9 1-9 1-9 1-9 1-9 1-9 1-10 1-10 1-10 1-10 1-11 1-11 1-11 1-11 1-11 1-11 1-11 1-11 1-12 1-12 1-13 1-13 1-13 1-13 1-13 1-13 1-13 1-13 1-14

1-5 1-6 1-6 1-6 1-6 1-6 1-6 1-7 1-7 1-7 1-7 1-7 1-7 1-7 1-7 1-8 1-8 1-8

2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5

2.6

2.7

Monetary sector Nominal money supply (End of period) Real money supply (End of period) Nominal net domestic assets (End of period) Real net domestic assets (End of period) Nominal net foreign assets Including revaluation differences (End of period) Real net foreign assets Including revaluation differences (End of period) Nominal net foreign assets Excluding revaluation differences (End of period)

2-3 2-3 2-3 2-3 2-3

2-3 15 2-3

2.8

2.9 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.19 2.20 2.21 2.22 2.23 2.24 2.25 2.26 2.27 2.28 2.29 2.30 2.31 2.32 2.33

Real net foreign assets Excluding revaluation differences (End of period) Nominal total credit according to CMR (End of period) Real total credit according to CMR (End of period) Nominal consumer credit (End of period) Real consumer credit (End of period) Number of new consumer credit (During period) Total amount of new consumer credit (During period) Nominal average new consumer credit per lender (During period) Real average new consumer credit per lender (During period) Nominal housing mortgages (End of period) Real housing mortgages (End of period) Number of new housing mortgages (During period) Total amount of new housing mortgages (During period) Nominal average new housing mortgages per lender (During period) Real average new housing mortgages per lender (During period) Nominal car loans (End of period) Real car loans (End of period) Nominal commercial loans (End of period) Real commercial loans (End of period) Number of new commercial mortgages (During period) Total amount of new commercial mortgages (During period) Nominal average new commercial mortgages per lender (During period) Real average new commercial mortgages per lender (During period) Number of new commercial term loans (During period) Total amount of new commercial term loans (During period) Nominal average new commercial term loan per lender

2-3

2-4 2-4 2-4 2-4 2-4 2-4 2-4 2-4 2-5 2-5 2-5 2-5 2-5 2-5 2-5 2-5 2-6 2-6 2-6 2-6 2-6 2-6 2-6 2-6 2-7

2.34 Real average new commercial term loan per lender (During period) 2.35 Nominal savings deposits (End of period) 2.36 Real savings deposits (End of period) 2.37 Number of new savings deposits (During period) 2.38 Total of amount of new savings deposits (During period) 2.39 Weighted average rate on interest on deposits (During period) 2.40 Weighted average rate on interest on loans (During period) 2.41 Interest rate margin (During period) 2.42 Weighted average yield on treasury bonds 2.43 Weighted average yield on treasury bills 2.44 Gross business loans on a weekly basis 2.45 Gross individual loans on a weekly basis

2-7

2-8 2-8 2-9 2-9

3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

3-3 3-3 3-3 3-3

2-7 2-7 2-7 2-7 2-7 2-7 2-8

3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.10 3.11 3.12 3.13 3.14 3.15 3.16 3.17 3.18 3.19

Public finance Government revenue Government expenditure Government financial deficit (-) Government financial deficit (-) incl. change in unmet financing requirements Outstanding dometic government debt Outstanding foreign governmnet debt Outstanding government debt Outstanding government debt to GDP ratio Taxes on income Taxes on commodities Foreign exchange tax Nontax revenue Wage expenditures Number of government employees Goods and services Interest Investments (Incl. development fund spending) Transfer to AZV Expenditure cash adjusted basis

3-3 3-3 3-3 3-3 3-4 3-4 3-4 3-4 3-4 3-4 3-4 3-4 3-5 3-5 3-5

4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10

External sector Overall balance of payments Overall balance of payments-Oil sector Overall balance of payments-Non-oil secter Current account Current account-Oil sector Current account-Non-oil sector Capital and financial account Capital and financial account-Oil sector Capital and financial account-Non-oil sector Import payments of goods

4-3 4-3 4-3 4-3 4-3 4-3 4-3 4-3 4-4 4-4

4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 4.16 4.17 4.18 4.19 4.20 4.21 4.22

Import payments of goods-Oil sector Import payments of goods-Non-oil sector Import payments of services Import payments of services-Oil sector Import payments of services-Non-oil sector Import payments of goods and services Import payments of goods and servicesOil sector Import payments of goods and servicesNon-oil sector Merchandise import coverage ratio (End of period) Merchandise import coverage ratio (Twelve-month average) Current account import coverage ratio (End of period) Current account import coverage ratio (Twelve-month average)

5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4

Macro prudential indicators Capital/risk-weighted assets ratio Loan/deposit ratio Prudential liquidity ratio Nonperforming loans-commercial current account 5.5 Nonperforming loans-commercial term loans 5.6 Nonperforming loans-commercial mortgages 5.7 Nonperforming loans-individual mortgages 5.8 Nonperforming loans-individual other 5.9 Nonperforming loans-total loans 5.10 Commercial banks-nonperforming loans (Monthly figures) 5.11 Nonperforming loans - Commercial banks & banklike institutions

4-4 4-4 4-4 4-4 4-4 4-4 4-5 4-5 4-5 4-5 4-5 4-5

5-3 5-3 5-3 5-4 5-4 5-4 5-4 5-4 5-4 5-4

5-5

6 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.10 6.11

Composite indicators Index monthly indicators of consumption Index quarterly indicators of consumption Index monthly indicators of investment Index quarterly indicators of investment Index of export indicators Index of indicators of imports Index of Economic Indicators Partial economic activity index Current business perception index Short-term business perception index Business perception index

6-3 6-3 6-3 6-3 6-3 6-3 6-3 6-3 6-4 6-4 6-4

7 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4

International environment All commodities index-World Non fuel commodity index-World Energy index-World Oil prices

7-3 7-3 7-3 7-3

7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.10

Euro exchange rate (period average) Consumer confidence index-USA Unemployment rate-USA USA index of leading economic indicators Gold prices Food price index

7-3 7-3 7-3 7-3 7-4 7-4

1. Real sector

Chart 1.1

9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0

In Afl. million

In Afl. million

Nominal turnover tax (BBO) (Excl. receipts from Valero: June 2009 $8 million and June 2010 Afl. 211.6 million )

Chart 1.2 Real turnover tax (BBO) - lagged one month (In January 2007 prices)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

8.0 7.6 7.2 6.8 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.4

2012

2010

Chart 1.3

2011

2012

Real wage tax - lagged one month (In January 2007 prices)

28 26

22

24

20

In Afl. million

In Afl. million

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.4 Nominal wage tax

22 20 18 16 14

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

18 16 14 12

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

1-3

Jul Aug Sep

2011

2012

Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.5

Chart 1.6

6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0

Inflation Aruba (End of period)

In percent

Percentage change

Inflation Aruba (Twelve-month average)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

Chart 1.7 Inflation differential 12-month average and end of period

2010

Percentage change

Percentage points

2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2011

2012

Chart 1.10 Aruba inflation excluding energy and food (Twelve-month average)

2011

1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

Chart 1.11

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.12 USA inflation excluding energy (Twelve-month average) Percentage change

Aruba inflation excluding energy (Twelve-month average) Percentage change

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2.0

2010

2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Percentage change

Percentage points

Inflation differential Aruba with USA (Twelve-month average) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5

2012

Chart 1.9

2012

Inflation USA (Twelve-month average)

4.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2011

Chart 1.8

6.0

-10.0

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

1-4

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.13 Aruba - Food and non-alcoholic beverages - Weight 1,489 (Twelve-month average)

Chart 1.14 Aruba - Housing - Weight 1,815 (Twelve-month average)

0.6

Percentage change

Percentage change

0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2011

1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.18 USA - Food component (Twelve-month average)

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.4

Percentage change

Percentage change

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

Aruba - Food component - Weight 1,263 (Twelve-month average)

0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

2011

2012

(Twelve-month average) 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.00 -0.04 -0.08

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Aruba - Maintenance and repair of the dwelling - Weight 504

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

0.3

-0.2

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.19

Percentage change

2012

Aruba - Transport - Weight 1,741 (Twelve-month average)

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.17

-0.12

2011

Chart 1.16

Percentage change

Percentage change

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1.6

2010

-0.6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

Chart 1.15 Aruba - Household operation - Weight 980 (Twelve-month average) 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 -0.25

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0

2012

1-5

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.20

Chart 1.21 Severance insurance payments 1,000 In Afl. thousand

In percentage

Unemployment rate 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6

2010

III

2011 2010

800 600 400 200 0

IV

I

2011

Population 103.2 In thousand

In Afl. million

2011

103.6

102.8 102.4 102.0 101.6

I

II 2010

III 2011

101.2

IV

I

II

2012

III 2010

Chart 1.24

IV

2011

Chart 1.25 AZV-receipts

AOV/AWW-receipts 20

24

18

22 In Afl. million

In Afl. million

IV

Chart 1.23 Worker's remittances payments

16 14 12 10

III 2010

Chart 1.22 30 30 30 29 28 28 28 27 26 26 26 25

II

20 18 16 14

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

12

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

1-6

Jul Aug Sep

2011

2012

Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.26

Chart 1.27

80 76 72 68 64 60 56

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

76 72 68 64 60

2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

560 520 480 440 400

12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

2012

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Average nights stayed

Average days 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.8

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

Chart 1.32

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.33 Cruise passengers

Ship calls

120

70

100

60

80

Ship calls

Passengers in thousands

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.31

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

60 40

50 40 30 20

20 0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

Airline load factor (Including transfer, transit, diplomats, inactive crew etc.)

In percent of total seats

600

Resident arrivals

Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.30

82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66

640

Chart 1.29 Number of arrivals in thousand

80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

680

2010

84

56

Visitor's nights 720

2012

Chart 1.28 Airport arrivals corrected for resident arrivals Number of arrivals in thousand

Number of visitor's nights in thousand

Number of visitors in thousand

Stay-over visitors 84

10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

0

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

1-7

Jul Aug Sep

2011

2012

Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.34

Chart 1.35 Occupancy rate - hotels 88

88

84

84

80

In percent

In percent

Occupancy rate - total 92

80 76

72

72

68

68

64

64

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

60

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Occupancy rate - timeshare 92 88 84 80 76 72 68

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Chart 1.36

In percent

76

Oct Nov Dec

2012

1-8

Jul Aug Sep

2011

2012

Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.37 Nominal revenue per available room - total

Chart 1.38 Real revenue per available room - total (In January 2007 prices)

240 220 180 In Afl.

In Afl.

200 160 140 120 100 80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

2010

Chart 1.39 Nominal revenue per available room - hotels

320

320

280

280

In Afl.

In Afl.

360

240

200

160

160

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

2010

48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

2010

2012

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Chart 1.44 Nominal average daily rate - total

Real average daily rate - total (In January 2007 prices)

480 440

400

400

360

360

320

In Afl.

In Afl.

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.42 Real revenue per available room - timeshare (In January 2007 prices)

Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.43

320

280

280

240

240

200

200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

In Afl.

60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15

120

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.41 Nominal revenue per available room - timeshare

In Afl.

240

200

2010

2012

Real revenue per available room - hotels (In January 2007 prices)

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2011

Chart 1.40

400

120

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

160

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

1-9

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.45

Chart 1.46 Nominal average daily rate - hotel

Real average daily rate - hotel (In January 2007 prices)

480

440

440

400

400

360 In Afl.

In Afl.

520

360 320

320 280

280

240

240

200

200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

160

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.47

2010

Nominal average daily rate - timeshare

2011

2012

Real average daily rate - timeshare (In January 2007 prices)

440

440

400

400 360

360

In Afl.

In Afl.

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.48

480

320 280

320 280 240

240 200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

160

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

1-10

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.49

Chart 1.50 Nominal tourism receipts

Real tourism receipts (In the first quarter of 2007 prices)

720

680

680

640

In Afl. million

In Afl. million

760

640 600 560 520

600 560 520 480 440

480

I

II 2010

III 2011

400

In Afl. million

In Afl. million

2012

400

420

380 360 340

380 360 340 320 300

320

I

II

III

280

IV

2010

Nominal tourism receipts (Commercial banks and CBA) 220

In Afl.

200 180 160 140 120

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2011

IV

2012

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.56 Real hotel room tax/Tourist levy - lagged one month (In January 2007 prices)

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

III

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

In Afl. million

Nominal hotel room tax/Tourist Levy

2010

190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100

2012

Chart 1.55

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

II

Chart 1.54 Real tourism receipts - commercial banks and CBA (In January 2007 prices)

240

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

I

2010

Chart 1.53

In Afl. million

2011

IV

Real tourism expenditure (In the first quarter of 2007 prices)

440

In Afl. million

III

Chart 1.52 Nominal tourism expenditure

7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0

II

2010

2012

Chart 1.51

100

I

IV

2012

6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

1-11

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.57

In Afl. million

In Afl. million

Nominal gambling licenses 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0

Chart 1.58 Real gambling linceses - lagged one month (In January 2007 prices)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

1-12

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.59

Chart 1.60 Water (Household)

Electricity (Household)

560

In KWH million

In thousand m3

580 540 520 500 480 460 440

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Total containers

1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

800

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.64 Diesel prices

260

230

250

220 In cents per liter

In cents per liter

2012

1,600

Unleaded premium gasoline prices

240 230 220 210 200 190

210 200 190 180 170 160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

150

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

2010

Chart 1.65

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 1.66 New commercial water connection

New commercial water disconnection 40 35 30 Total

Total

2011

IV

Container transport ASTEC

Chart 1.63

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5

III

Chart 1.62

2010

180

II 2010

Gas (Household) In thousand pound

I

2012

Chart 1.61

950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450

80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60

25 20 15 10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

5

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

1-13

Jul Aug Sep

2011

2012

Oct Nov Dec

Chart 1.67 Index of construction (Twelve-month average) 92.0 88.0 84.0 80.0 76.0 72.0 68.0 64.0

I

II 2010

III 2011

IV

2012

1-14

2. Monetary sector

Chart 2.1

Chart 2.2

3,320 3,300 3,280 3,260 3,240 3,220 3,200 3,180 3,160 3,140

Real money supply (In January 2007 prices, end of period)

In Afl. million

In Afl. million

Nominal money supply (End of period)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2,960 2,920 2,880 2,840 2,800 2,760 2,720 2,680 2,640 2,600

2012

Chart 2.3

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

In Afl. million In Afl. million

2010

1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050

2012

Chart 2.7 Nominal net foreign assets-Excl. revaluation differences (End of period)

In Afl. million

1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 2.8 Real net foreign assets-Excl. revaluation differences (In January 2007 prices, end of period)

1,500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

1,600 In Afl. million

2012

Chart 2.6 Real net foreign assets-Incl. revaluation differences (In January 2007 prices, end of period)

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

In Afl. million Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

1,800 1,760 1,720 1,680 1,640 1,600 1,560 1,520 1,480

2012

Chart 2.5 Nominal net foreign assets-Incl. revaluation differences (End of period)

1,000

2011

Real net domestic assets (In January 2007 prices, end of period)

In Afl. million Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

1,750 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Chart 2.4 Nominal net domestic assets (End of period)

2,100 2,050 2,000 1,950 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010

2012

2-3

2011

2012

Chart 2.9

Chart 2.10

3,000 2,950 2,900 2,850 2,800 2,750 2,700 2,650 2,600

Real total credit according to CMR (In January 2007 prices, end of period)

In Afl. million

In Afl. million

Nominal total credit according to CMR (End of period)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2,520 2,500 2,480 2,460 2,440 2,420 2,400 2,380 2,360 2,340 2,320

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

2010

Chart 2.11

530 In Afl. million

In Afl. million

Real consumer credit (In January 2007 prices, end of period)

520 510 500 490 480

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

470

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 2.14 Number of new consumer credit (During period)

Total amount of new consumer credit (During period)

1,400 In Afl. million

1,200 1,000 800 600 400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

In Afl. thousand

24 22 20 18

2010

2011

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Chart 2.16 Real average new concumer credit per loan granted (In January 2007 prices, during period)

26

Jul Aug Sep

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

28

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6

2012

Chart 2.15 Nominal average new consumer credit per loan granted (During period) In Afl. thousand

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

Chart 2.13

16

2012

540

2010

200

2011

Chart 2.12 Nominal consumer credit (End of period)

605 600 595 590 585 580 575 570 565

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Oct Nov Dec

2012

24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

2-4

Jul Aug Sep

2011

2012

Oct Nov Dec

Chart 2.17

Chart 2.18 Real housing mortgages (In January 2007 prices, end of period)

940

790

920

780 In Afl. million

In Afl. million

Nominal housing mortgages (End of period)

900 880 860 840 820 800

770 760 750 740 730

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

720

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

2010

Chart 2.19

In Afl. million

120 100 80 60 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

In Afl. thousand

2010

2011

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Chart 2.22 Real average new housing mortgages per loan granted (In January 2007 prices, during period) 220 200 180 160 140 120 100

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

Chart 2.23

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 2.24 Nominal car loans (End of period)

Real car loans (In January 2007 prices, end of period)

184 In Afl. million

180 In Afl. million

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

In Afl. thousand Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4

2012

Chart 2.21 Nominal average new housing mortgages per loan granted (During period)

176 172 168 164 160 156

2012

Total amount of new housing mortgages (During period)

140

260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120

2011

Chart 2.20 Number of new housing mortgages (During period)

20

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

164 160 156 152 148 144 140 136 132 128

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

2-5

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 2.25

Chart 2.26

1,220 1,200 1,180 1,160 1,140 1,120 1,100 1,080 1,060 1,040

Real commercial loans (In January 2007 prices, end of period) 1,020 In Afl. million

In Afl. million

Nominal commercial loans (End of period)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2011

940

2012

In Afl. million

10 8 6 4 2 Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

2010

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

2012

Number of new commercial term loans (During period)

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 2.32 Total amount of new commercial term loans (During period) 35

120

30 In Afl. million

140 100 80 60 40 20 0

Jul Aug Sep

2011

2010

Chart 2.31

2012

Chart 2.30 Real average new commercial mortgages per loan granted (In January 2007 prices, during period)

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

In Afl. thousand Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0

2012

Chart 2.29 Nominal average new commercial mortgages per loan granted (During period)

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Chart 2.28 Total amount of new commercial mortgages (During period)

12

Jan Feb

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Number of new commercial mortgages (During period)

In Afl. thousand

960

900

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Chart 2.27

5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

980

920

2010

0

1,000

25 20 15 10 5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

0

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

2-6

Jul Aug Sep

2011

2012

Oct Nov Dec

Chart 2.33 Nominal average new commercial term loan per loan granted (During period)

Chart 2.34 Real average new commercial term loan per loan granted (In January 2007 prices, during period) In Afl. thousand

In Afl. thousand

1,000 800 600 400 200 0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

2010

Chart 2.35

800

920

790 In Afl. million

In Afl. million

940 900 880 860

780 770 760 750 740

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

730

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

2010

Chart 2.37

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 2.38 Number of new savings deposits (During period)

Total amount of new savings deposits (During period) 8 In Afl. million

7 6 5 4 3 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

2012

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Chart 2.40 Weighted average rate of interest on loans (During period)

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

In percent

4.4 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8

1

Oct Nov Dec

Chart 2.39 Weighted average rate of interest on deposits (During period)

In percent

2012

Real savings deposit (In January 2007 prices, end of period)

840

680 640 600 560 520 480 440 400 360 320

2011

Chart 2.36 Nominal savings deposits (End of period)

820

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012

12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

2-7

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 2.41

Chart 2.42 Weighted average yield on treasury bonds

In percent

Interest rate margin (During period) 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

2010

Jul Aug Sep

Oct Nov Dec

2011

Chart 2.43 Weighted average yield on treasury bills 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 2011 2012

Advance rate

Weighted average yield on 3-month treasury bills

2-8

Chart 2.44 Gross business loans on a weekly basis 1,220

1,200

1,180

In Afl. million

1,160

1,140

1,120

1,100

1,080

1,060

1,040

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52

2010

2011

2012

Chart 2.45 Gross individual loans on a weekly basis 1,520

1,500

In Afl. million

1,480

1,460

1,440

1,420

1,400

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52

2010

2011

2-9

2012

3. Public finance

Chart 3.1

Chart 3.2

520 480 440 400 360 320 280 240 200

Government expenditure (During period)

In Afl. million

In Afl. million

Government revenue (During period)

I

II

III 2010

IV

III

In Afl. million

2010

IV

120 80 40 0 -40 -80 -120 -160

IV

2011

Outstanding foreign government debt (End of period) 1,180 1,160 In Afl. million

In Afl. million

III

Chart 3.6

1,140 1,120 1,100 1,080 1,060

I

II

III 2010

1,040

IV

In % of GDP

2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 III 2010

III

IV

2011

Chart 3.8 Outstanding government debt to GDP ratio (End of period)

2,800

II

II 2010

Outstanding government debt (End of period)

I

I

2011

Chart 3.7

In Afl. million

IV

2011

II 2010

Outstanding domestic government debt (End of period)

2,200

I

2011

Chart 3.5

1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150

III

Chart 3.4 Government financial deficit (-) incl. change in unmet financing requirements (During period) In Afl. million

II

II 2010

Government financial deficit (-) (During period)

I

I

2011

Chart 3.3

60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 -140

440 420 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240

IV

2011

59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50

I

II

III 2010

3-3

2011

IV

Chart 3.9

Chart 3.10 Taxes on income (During period)

Taxes on commodities (During period) 36 32

24

In Afl. million

In Afl. million

28

20 16 12 8

28 24 20 16 12

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

8

Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

2010

Chart 3.11

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

In Afl. million In Afl. million

180 170 160 150 140 I

II

III 2010

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

190

130

22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

2012

Chart 3.13 Wage expenditures - consisting of wages, employer's contribution and wage subsidies (During period)

IV

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Chart 3.14 Number of government employees (End of period) 4,240 4,220 4,200 4,180 4,160 4,140 4,120 4,100 4,080

I

II

2011

III 2010

Chart 3.15

IV

2011

Chart 3.16 Goods and services (During period)

Interest (During period) 48 In Afl. million

In Afl. million

2012

Nontax revenue (During period)

In Afl. million Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35

2011

Oct Nov Dec

Chart 3.12 Foreign exchange tax (During period)

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Jul Aug Sep

44 40 36 32 28

I

II

III 2010

24

IV

2011

I

II

III 2010

3-4

2011

IV

26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10

Chart 3.18 Transfer to AZV (During period)

In Afl. million

In Afl. million

Chart 3.17 Investments (incl. development fund spending) (During period)

I

II

III 2010

IV

2011

In Afl. million

Expenditure on a cash adjusted basis (During period)

I

II

III 2010

I

II

III 2010

Chart 3.19

390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 300

65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15

IV

2011

3-5

2011

IV

4. External sector

Chart 4.1

Chart 4.2 Overall balance of payments

Overall balance of payments - oil sector

80 In Afl. million

In Afl. million

40 0 -40 -80 -120 -160

I

II

III 2010

IV

100 In Afl. million

In Afl. million

2011

Current account

0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500

I

II

III

-600

IV

I

II

2011

III 2010

IV

2011

Chart 4.6 Current account - non-oil sector

600 In Afl. million

400 In Afl. million

IV

Chart 4.4

Current account - oil sector

200 0 -200 -400 I

II

III 2010

IV

200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350

I

II

2011

III 2010

Chart 4.7

IV

2011

Chart 4.8 Capital and financial account

Capital and financial account - oil sector 600 400 In Afl. million

In Afl. million

III 2010

Chart 4.5

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300

II

200

2010

-600

I

2011

Chart 4.3 Overall balance of payments - non-oil sector 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 -140 -160

40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 -140

200 0 -200 -400

I

II

III 2010

-600

IV

2011

I

II

III 2010

4-3

2011

IV

Chart 4.9 Capital and financial account - non-oil sector

Chart 4.10 Import payments of goods

400 In Afl. million

In Afl. million

300 200 100 0 -100 -200

I

II

III 2010

IV

III

IV

In Afl. million

500 480 460 440 420 400 380 360 340 320 300

IV

Import payments of services - oil sector 70

400

60

380

50

In Afl. million

In Afl. million

III 2011

Chart 4.14 Import payments of services

360 340 320 300

40 30 20 10

280 I

II

III 2010

0

IV

I

II

2011

III 2010

Chart 4.15 Import payments of services - non-oil sector

IV

2011

Chart 4.16 Import payments of goods and services 4,500 4,000 In Afl. million

In Afl. million

IV

2011

II 2010

420

350 340 330 320 310 300 290 280 270 260

I

2011

Chart 4.13

260

III

Chart 4.12 Import payments of goods - non-oil sector

In Afl. million II 2010

II 2010

Import payments of goods - oil sector

I

I

2011

Chart 4.11 3,600 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0

4,000 3,600 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000

I

II

III 2010

500

IV

2011

I

II

III 2010

4-4

2011

IV

Chart 4.18 Import payments of goods and services - non-oil sector

3,500

840

3,000

800

2,500

In Afl. million

In Afl. million

Chart 4.17 Import payments of goods and services - oil sector

2,000 1,500 1,000

760 720 680 640

500 0

I

II

III 2010

600

IV

2011

Merchandise import coverage ratio (Twelve month average)

14 13

In months

In months

IV

Chart 4.20

15

12 11 10 9 I

II

III 2010

IV

12.4 12.0 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.4 10.0 9.6 9.2 8.8

I

II

2011

III 2010

Chart 4.21

IV

2011

Chart 4.22 Current account import coverage ratio (Twelve month average)

In months

Current account import coverage ratio (End of period)

In months

III 2010

Merchandise import coverage ratio (End of period)

7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0

II

2011

Chart 4.19

8

I

I

II

III 2010

IV

2011

6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4

I

II

III 2010

4-5

2011

IV

5. Macroprudential indicators

Chart 5.1

Chart 5.2 Capital/risk-weighted assets ratio

Loan/deposit ratio

23

74

22

72 70

20

Ratio

Ratio

21 19

66

18

64

17 16

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

62

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Prudential liquidity ratio 32 31

Ratio

30 29 28 27 26 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Chart 5.3

24

68

Oct Nov Dec

2012

5-3

Jul Aug Sep

2011

2012

Oct Nov Dec

24.0 23.0 22.0 21.0 20.0 19.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0

16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 I

II 2010

III 2011

2.0

IV

II 2010

III 2011

IV

2012

Chart 5.7 Nonperforming loans-individuals mortgage Commercial banks

20.0

5.0

18.0

4.8 In percent

16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0

4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0

8.0 6.0

I

II 2010

III 2011

3.8

IV

I

II

2012

2010

Chart 5.8

III 2011

IV

2012

Chart 5.9 Nonperforming loans-individual other Commercial banks

10.0 9.6 9.2 8.8 8.4 8.0 7.6 7.2 6.8

Nonperforming loans-total loans Commercial banks

In percent

In percent

I

2012

Chart 5.6 Nonperforming loans-commercial mortgages Commercial banks

In percent

Chart 5.5 Nonperforming loans-commercial term loans Commercial banks

In percent

In percent

Chart 5.4 Nonperforming loans-commercial current account Commercial banks

I

II 2010

III 2011

IV

11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0

I

II

2012

2010

III 2011

IV

2012

Chart 5.10 Commercial banks - nonperforming loans (Monthly figures) 24.0 Commercial current account Commercial term loan Commercial mortgages Individual mortgages Individual other Total gross loans

In percent

20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 0.0

Jan

Mar May Jul 2009

Sep Nov Jan

Mar May Jul 2010

Sep Nov Jan

Mar May

Jul 2011

5-4

Sep Nov Jan Mar May

Jul 2012

Sep Nov

Chart 5.11 Nonperforming loans Commercial banks & banklike institutions 32.0 Commercial current account Commercial term loan Commercial mortgages Inidividual mortgages Inidividual other Total gross loans

28.0 In percent

24.0 20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 0.0

I

II

2009

III

IV

I

II

2010

III

IV

I

5-5

II

2011

III

IV

I 2012

6. Composite indicators

Chart 6.1

Chart 6.2 Index monthly indicators of consumption

Index quarterly indicators of consumption

64

80

60

76 72 Index

Index

56 52 48

64 60

44 40

68

56 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2009

Jul Aug Sep

2010

52

Oct Nov Dec

2009

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010

102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82

I

2011

2011

III 2010

IV

2011

Chart 6.6 Index of export indicators

Index of indicators of imports

128

108

124

106

120

104

116

Index

Index

II 2009

Chart 6.5

112

102 100

108

98

104 100

I

II 2009

III 2010

96

IV

I

2011

II 2009

Chart 6.7

III 2010

IV

2011

Chart 6.8 Index of Economic Indicators

Partial economic activity index (Percentage change compared to the corresponding period a year earlier)

96

Percentage change

92 88 Index

2010

IV

Index quarterly indicators of investment

Index Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2009

84 80 76 72

III

Chart 6.4 Index monthly indicators of investment

Index

II

2011

Chart 6.3 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60

I

I

II 2009

III 2010

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0

IV

2011

I

II 2009

6-3

III 2010

2011

IV

Chart 6.9

Chart 6.10 Current business perception index

Short-term perception index

106 104 100

Index

Index

102 98 96 94 92

I

II 2009

III 2010

IV

2011

Business perception index 106 104 Index

102 100 98 96 94 I

II 2009

III 2010

I

II 2009

Chart 6.11

92

108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90

IV

2011

6-4

III 2010

2011

IV

7. International environment

Chart 7.1

Chart 7.2 All commodities index - World

Non fuel commodity index - World (2000 = 100)

220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130

210 200 190 Index

Index

(2000 = 100)

180 170 160 150

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

140

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

Chart 7.3

2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 7.6 Consumer confidence index - USA 80 76 Index

72 68 64 60 56 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Index

2010

52

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012

Chart 7.7

2010

Jul Aug Sep

2011

Oct Nov Dec

2012

Chart 7.8 Unemployment rate - USA (Seasonally adjusted)

US index of leading economic indicators (2004 = 100)

10.0

120

9.6

118 116

9.2

Index

Percent of labor lorce

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Euro exchange rate (Period average)

In hundred

115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70

2012

Chart 7.5

8.8 8.4

114 112 110

8.0 7.6

2012

Oil prices (WTI) US$ per barrel

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

260 255 250 245 240 235 230 225 220 215

2011

Chart 7.4 Energy index - World (2000 = 100)

220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

108 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

106

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

7-3

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Chart 7.9

Chart 7.10 Gold prices

Food price index (2000-2004 = 100)

1,700 1,600 1,500 Index

In US$ per troy ounce

1,800

1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010

7-4

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012