Iranian Strategy Feeds Off Perceived Western Weakness By: Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, May 1, 2014 Institute for Contemporary Affairs, founded jointly with the Wechsler Family Foundation Vol. 14, No. 12 May 1, 2014 With a further round of the nuclear talks between Iran and the West to be held in mid-May, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to encourage the advancement of Iran’s nuclear program. While giving the talks a green light, he is at the forefront of pessimism about the chances of reaching a comprehensive agreement. •
Khamenei insisted that despite the ongoing talks, no activity in the R&D field would be stopped or slowed down. He stressed that the main advantage of Iran’s nuclear program is the “strengthening of national security,” a surprising admission considering Iran’s insistence that its nuclear program is only for civilian purposes. •
Discussing the dilution of Iran’s 20 percent enriched uranium to 5 percent, Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) spokesman Bahruz Kamalvandi made clear that Iran would not lose its uranium stockpiles: “We can convert the uranium enriched to 5 percent to a level of 20 percent in two or three weeks if we need to.” •
Although not much time remains until July, the talks’ next round is not expected to produce a breakthrough toward a comprehensive agreement. Now that the talks have slipped from the international agenda, there is even less warrant for optimism. •
Given Iran’s repeated statements in this regard, the situation assessment is basically one of Western weakness. This will likely lead Iran to toughen its position in the nuclear talks, or even derail them if it sees little chance of incurring damage for doing so. •
A further round of the nuclear talks between Iran and the West is supposed to be held in mid-May, apparently in New York (at the expert level) and Vienna (at the senior level on May 13). An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman disclosed that Iran and the P5+1 will start drafting the final nuclear agreement in Vienna, adding that guidelines for such agreements had already been set.1 In recent weeks, not to Iran’s displeasure, the issue has been pushed to the margins of the international agenda by the ongoing crisis over Ukraine between Russia (a main participant in the nuclear talks) and the West. At the same time, many questions still remain regarding Iran’s commitments under the Geneva agreement and to what extent it has honored them.
Khamenei Sees the Nuclear Program as Strengthening National Security Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who met early in April 2014 with employees of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) in connection with National Nuclear Technology Day (April 9), continues to encourage the advancement of Iran’s nuclear program. At the same time, he is at