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The official publication of the Kansas Wheat Commission and the Kansas Association of Wheat Growers
OCTOBER 2015
INSIDE THIS ISSUE
Kansas Wheat Crop Shows Average Quality Yield Contest Winners Honored at Kansas State Fair Kansas Farmers Encouraged to be Proactive in Wheat Disease Control
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Volume 2 • Number 10 www.rediscoverwheat.org The official publication of
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1990 Kimball Avenue Manhattan, Kansas 66502 (785) 539-0255
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KAWG MEMBERSHIP
EDITOR
$100 per year
Marsha Boswell • mboswell@kswheat.com
ASSISTANT EDITOR/DESIGNER
Audrey Schmitz • commintern@kswheat.com
CONTRIBUTORS
Julia Debes • jdebes@kswheat.com Jordan Hildebrand • jhildebrand@kswheat.com
CEO
KAWG OFFICERS
Justin Gilpin • jgilpin@kswheat.com
PRESIDENT Michael Jordan • Beloit
VICE PRESIDENT Kenneth Wood • Chapman SECRETARY/TREASURER Justin Knopf • Salina IMMEDIATE PAST PRESIDENT Gary Millershaski • Lakin
KWC OFFICERS
CHAIRMAN Jay Armstrong • Muscotah VICE CHAIRMAN Brian Linin • Goodland SECRETARY/TREASURER Mike McClellan • Plainville IMMEDIATE PAST CHAIRMAN Scott Van Allen • Clearwater
Rediscover Wheat is published by the Kansas Association of Wheat Growers (KAWG) and the Kansas Wheat Commission (KWC), 1990 Kimball Avenue, Manhattan, Kansas 66502, twelve times per year. Contents of this publication may not be reprinted without permission.
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In This Issue :
Recipe: Sweet Potato or Pumpkin Rolls
Kansas Wheat Crop Shows Average Quality Yield Contest Winners Honored at Kansas State Fair Ediger wins yield and quality awards in Kansas Wheat Yield Contest IGP Institute Stakeholders News Brief Kansas Farmers Encouraged to be Proactive in Wheat Disease Control Recipe: Whole Grain Pumpkin Muffins Wheat Foods Council State Fair Photo Contest News from National Association of Wheat Growers News from U.S. Wheat Associates Maltby Market Analysis Upcoming Events
Sweet Potato or Pumpkin Rolls Directions
1. In large mixing bowl, blend lukewarm (110°F) sweet potatoes or pumpkin together with margarine. 2. Dissolve yeast in water; stir into potatoes or pumpkin. Add egg, salt, and sugar; blend. Gradually add 4 cups flour. Stir in enough remaining flour to make a soft, slightly sticky dough.
Ingredients
1 cup cooked and mashed sweet potatoes or pumpkin 3 tablespoons margarine or butter 1 package RED STAR® Active Dry Yeast 1 ¼ cups lukewarm water (110-115°F) 1 egg 1 teaspoon salt 3 tablespoons granulated sugar 5 ¼ - 5 ½ cups bread flour
Nutrition Information
Nutrition information per serving (one roll): 137 cal, 2 g fat, 9 mg chol, 119 mg sodium, 25 g carbo, 1 g fiber, 4 g pro, 55 mcg folate.
Cindy's Test Kitchen Tips If you are using a 15 oz. can of pumpkin, I don’t care to have leftover pumpkin, so 1 ½ times the recipe to use the rest of the can of pumpkin. Thus, I use: 1 (15 oz.) can pumpkin; 4 ½ tablespoons margarine or butter; 3 ¼ teaspoons yeast; 1 ¾ cups lukewarm water; 2 eggs; 1 ½ teaspoons salt; 4 ½ tablespoons granulated sugar, and 8-8 1/4 cups bread flour. If you use a whole can of pumpkin and scale out 2 oz. doughballs, you should end up with 40 rolls.
3. Knead until smooth and elastic, 10 to 12 minutes, being careful not to add extra flour. (The dough will be sticky.) Place dough in a greased bowl; turn to grease top.* Cover; let rise in warm place until double. 4. Punch down dough; cover and let rest 10 minutes. Shape into desired shapes. Cover; let rise in warm place until double. 5. Bake in preheated 400°F oven 15 to 16 minutes, or until golden. *note: Dough may be covered and refrigerated at this time for later baking. Punch down whenever double in size. Use within 2 days. To use, keep covered and let dough reach room temperature. Proceed with directions as stated.
Yield: Makes 24 rolls. Rediscover WHE AT | OCTOBER 2015 3
Kansas Crop Shows Average Quality
By Jordan Hildebrand
ields in Kansas might have increased during the 2015 harvest, but test weights and protein content were down statewide. According to the United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS), data was collected from 7,233 carlot samples from 47 counties which showed an average test weight of 59.9 pounds per bushel. In comparison, the 2013 and 2014 harvest averages were 60.7 and 60.5 pounds per bushel, respectively.
Kansas crop by millions of bushels, they also played heavily into the decreased test weights statewide. While rain during the wheat’s growing season helps the plant grow, rains at harvest time can decrease test weights seemingly overnight by 2-3 points. As wheat is harvested, the dry, smooth kernels can be packed tightly together into a bushel. When moisture is introduced to a kernel after the first dry-down, the kernel will swell, much like a puffed wheat cereal.
Protein content and yield have an inverse relationship. When yields go up, protein content generally falls, and that rule of thumb held true in 2015. While the current year’s harvest was increased about 35% from last year, protein content for the state decreased from 13.4 percent to 12.7 percent. While it is lower than last year, 12.7 percent is actually still above the 10-year average of 12.4 percent. The Southwest and North Central Districts tied for the highest protein content at 13.1 percent.
Even when the kernel dries, it can’t shrink down to its original volume. Instead, it maintains the same weight, but the kernel takes up more space. So harvest time rains don’t mean less grain to haul in, it reduces the number of kernels per bushel which results in a test weight decrease. According to the Kansas Weather Data Library, Kansas received 188 percent more moisture than normal in May, averaging 7.73 inches statewide.
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While this year’s last minute rains increased the size of the
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Mary Knapp, climatologist with Kansas State University, attributed the rains in part to moisture opening up from the Gulf of Mexico mixing with cold
fronts moving across the state that “opened a fire hose pointed north.” While these rains helped bump yields, it also created the right climatic conditions for thunderstorms to build and stay over small geographic areas. The remnants of these storms caused issues like lower test weights and disease. The 2015 crop’s moisture content averaged 11.2 percent, down 11.9 percent, but equal to the 10-year statewide average. With the test weight and protein content lowered, wheat’s graded quality also decreased. Samples graded No. 1 accounted for 53 percent, down from 73 percent last year. No. 2 samples accounted for 38 percent, compared to 26 percent in 2014, while 9 percent graded No. 3 or below. Test weight, protein content, grade and defect determinations are made by Kansas Grain Inspection Service Inc. The data are summarized by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Collection and publication services are funded by the Kansas Wheat Commission.
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By Julia Debes
Yield Contest winners honored at Kansas State Fair
n September 17, Kansas Wheat honored the winners of the Kansas Wheat Yield Contest and the Wheat Quality Initiative Contest.
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"We’re excited to recognize the winners of the 6th annual Kansas Wheat Yield Contest," said Kansas Wheat Commission Chairman Jay Armstrong. "This has been an especially great year for the contest, not only because we received the highest yield ever, but also because of the sheer amount of competition this year. "We had more entrants this year with a number of very competitive yields. In fact, this is the first year we’ve had two out of the three winners reaching over 100 bushels an acre. The yields that we’re recognizing today showcase how producers making good management decisions can have a record-breaking year even in the face of disease and adverse weather. Armstrong continued, "Even at a time when commodity prices are low, producers should remember to implement best management practices in order to boost revenue per acre. And that revenue always starts with bushels." This year’s top wheat yields belong to Darwin Ediger of Meade, Western Region winner; Darren Nelson of Hutchinson, Central Region winner; and Doug Queen of Rossville, Eastern Region winner. Nelson's plot was 8.756 acres planted with a T158 (Limagrain) /Everest (Kansas Wheat Alliance) blend. Nelson’s prize-winning yield was 108.48 bushels an acre. Ediger planted his 6.48 acre plot with WB 4458 (WestBred) and saw a yield of 103.18 bushels per acre. Queen’s winning plot was 11.94 acres planted with Armour (WestBred) and resulted in a yield of 70.3 bushels per acre. The top quality award, announced by Governor Sam Brownback, was also awarded to Darwin Ediger. The 2015 Kansas Wheat Yield Contest is sponsored by BASF, WestBred, Kansas Wheat Alliance, Limagrain, Plains Gold, AgriPro, ADM and Kansas Wheat. 6 Rediscover WHE AT | OCTOBER 2015
Agronomic Information Western Region: Darwin Ediger Date Planted: 9/23/2014 Variety Planted: WB 4458 Soil Fertility Info: Topdress - 89 pounds per acre UAN; liquid 15 pounds per acre+ Thiosol; Liquid Central Region: Darren Nelson Date Planted: 10/06/2014 Variety Planted: T158/Everest Planting Rate: 82 pounds per acre Soil Fertility Info: Planting - 100 pounds an acre of Micro-Essentials SZ; dry Feekes 3 - 70-140 pounds an acre of Urea; dry Herbicide Info: Feekes 6 - 6 ounces per acre Sword MCPA 1 ounce per acre Affinity Fungicide Info: Feekes 6 - 4 ounces per acre Priaxor Feekes 10 - 9 ounces per acre Twinline Eastern Region: Doug Queen Date Planted: 09/28/2014 Variety Planted: Armour Planting Rate: 100 pounds per acre Soil Fertility Info: Pre-plant - 100 pounds an acre of 18-49-0; dry Topdress - 60 pounds N Herbicide Info: Topdress - Finesse
Ediger wins yield and quality awards in Kansas Wheat Yield Contest
By Julia Debes
arwin Ediger receives the Wheat Quality Initiative Award from Governor Sam Brownback at the Kansas State Fair.
remarked that wheat breeders are providing such great varieties that it has become harder to make selections each year – a good problem to have.
Darwin Ediger receives the Wheat Quality Initiative Award from Governor Sam Brownback at the Kansas State Fair.
Finish with Good Management
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Darwin Ediger, Meade, Kansas, proved high yielding wheat can have superior milling and baking quality with his entry in the Kansas Wheat Yield Contest. His 6.48 acre plot of WB 4458 (WestBred) yielded 103.18 bushels per acre, making Ediger the winner of the Kansas Wheat Yield Contest from the Western Region. Governor Sam Brownback also officially awarded Ediger with the Quality Award for the contest at the Kansas State Fair on September 17, along with a $250 prize. “Darwin’s winning wheat yielded more than 100 bushels per acre and still won the quality contest. That is pretty amazing,” Justin Gilpin, Kansas Wheat CEO, said. “The sample’s mix time of more than 11 minutes with overall dough strength ‘raised’ this sample to the top this year.” Ediger’s sample, along with the other entrants into the Quality Initiative component of the Kansas Wheat Yield Contest, was graded by the Kansas Grain Inspection Service and analyzed for quality by the ADM Milling Lab in Kansas City.
Even the best varieties, however, cannot succeed without good management. Ediger and his son Tyler have implemented best management practices into their dryland wheat and grain sorghum operation. That includes utilizing no-till to improve soil fertility and increase organic matter, testing for nitrogen and sulfur levels each year and applying yield maps when writing prescription maps for every field. Ediger said he and his son also emphasize the importance of seed treatments to establish good root development and plant healthy from the start as well as applying fungicide early, before disease pressure starts to show. They even use a drone to spot trouble spots in the middle of fields that would not otherwise be visible. “Each field is treated differently than the next,” he said, “Good management practices are just as important for cost savings as yield increases.” Ediger’s management practices are important for more than high yields. He explained that all of Ediger’s wheat is used for certified seed, so aiming for top quality is imperative every year. “Quality was bred into me since I was young,” Ediger said. “You never attain 100 percent quality, but you shoot for it.”
Start with Good Genetics Ediger said the WB 4458 variety impressed him throughout the year, but especially during grain fill. “WB 4458 stands well – it is a very beautiful wheat,” he said. “When conditions are right, it is going to keep putting the berries on.” Ediger credited wheat breeders with developing more improved varieties each year. “The wheat industry has changed so much in the last five or six years. It is exciting,” he said. He Rediscover Rediscover WH WHEEAT AT ||OCTOBER OCTOBER2015 2015 7 7
September 2015
STAKEHOLDER NEWS BRIEF September in Kansas is the month that marks the change from summer to fall, which means temperatures cooling off after a hot summer. Also, it is a month when farmers begin harvesting. Recently I saw that corn harvest in northeast Kansas is underway. Carlos Campabadal Everything is looking good and we are positive on having a good crop. After a busy August full of courses, this month slowed down a bit. But at the same time, it had a lot of important activities that enhanced our mission. We participated in the annual member’s meeting of U.S. Soybean Export Council in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Also, we collaborated directly with USSEC in hosting their trading teams during their annual Global Exchange with presentations and tours around Minnesota and other states. Charles Stark, Cassie Jones, and I along with faculty from other institutions obtained a $1,993,000 grant funded by USDA to help re-develop the poultry industry in Ghana and enhance future U.S. soybean sales in the region. This grant is part of a bigger project that we developed in partnership with the World Initiative in Soybean for Human Health.
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As we move toward the last quarter of the year, the IGP Institute is looking forward to many other courses and trainings with USDA and USSEC with the focus of helping international U.S. grain buyers in storing, purchasing and processing grain. Finally for our partners from the different commodity commissions and all the farmers, please enjoy this harvest season and stay safe as you work in the field.
Carlos Campabadal Feed Manufacturing and Grain Quality Management Curriculum Manager
In the Spotlight
Trainings and Activities
• Buhler Instructor of Milling
Courses and activities held in September. • GEAPS 500 — Introduction to Grain Operations
• Graduated from Kansas State University with a B.S. in Milling Science and Management
Jason Watt
Ben Schwab from K-State’s Department of Agricultural Economics and I obtained a $480,000 grant as part of the project Appropriate-Scale Mechanization Consortium led by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign that focuses on helping Feed the Future (developing countries) in mechanizing and enhancing their current agriculture practices with the goal of improving their income and reducing malnutrition. This grant is funded by the USAID Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Collaborative Research on Sustainable Intensification that is managed and run by Kansas State.
“I hope that this program will grow and develop through innovative teaching and that the industry will be excited about the graduates that are coming out.”
Rediscover WH1980 E ATKimball | OCTOBER 2015 Avenue, 102 IGP Institute Conference Center | Manhattan, KS
• GEAPS 524 — Grain Drying • GEAPS 540 — Entry Level Safety • Hosted the president of the Wheat Foods Council, Tim O’Conner, at the IGP Institute. • Hosted Taiwanese Flour Mills Association Delegation in conjunction with Kansas Wheat Associations and the Kansas Department of Agriculture.
66506–7000 | Tel. 785-532-4070 | Fax 785-532-6080 | www.grains.k-state.edu/igp | igp@ksu.edu
The IGP Institute hosted the Taiwanese Flour Mills Association Delegation at the conference center while they were in Kansas to sign a Joint Communiqué pledging to purchase 62.5 million bushels of U.S. Wheat.
Rave Reviews “Courses at IGP-KSU are just awesome. Information given at every course I have taken has proven to be carefully selected and comprehensive at the same time. The mill, labs and other facilities are first class. I can say nothing but to strongly recommend any individual or company looking forward to enhance their knowledge to consider the IGP as a very strong option to do so.” Javier Delgado Rodriguez Operations Corporate Manager at Grupo Munsa Frequent flour milling course participant
“This course provided information that could be reviewed at your own pace. It was a great topic that can be utilized across our feed division. Any type of safety training builds capacity in all of us.” Elizabeth Hilts Safety Supervisor at Land O’Lakes Animal Milk Plant GEAPS 542 — Electrical Safety for Grain and Processing Facilities On-Demand
The communications team members have been at work capturing photos and video of Kansas corn harvest during September for publication materials and course promotions.
Where in the World A monthly look at where we’ve been as we make our way around the globe promoting U.S. commodities and IGP Institute training opportunities. • Attended the USSEC Global Soy Exchange in Minneapolis, Minnesota. • Traveled with USSEC S.E. Asia trade team to Minnesota farms and to Des Moines, Iowa. • Spoke at the International Dry-Bulk Terminals Group Conference in Vancouver, Canada. • Attended the USSEC Members Annual Meeting in Minneapolis, Minnesota. • Attended the Zamorano Alumni at Kansas State University Symposium in Manhattan, Kansas. • Spoke at the U.S. Wheat World Staff Conference in Guatemala.
Marketing the Brand by Lisa Moser, Marketing and Communications Coordinator • Created and distributed the U.S. Wheat promotional video on Nigerian course. • Completed quarterly commission reports for stakeholders. • Worked on stories for the Year in Review publication. • Captured footage at Darling Ingredients for pet food rendering materials. • Completed post course promotion. The Pet Food Experience roller shade created to promote university pet food trainings.
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Kansas Farmers Encouraged to be Proactive In Wheat Disease Control heat planting season is here, and producers are making decisions that can affect next year’s crop, for both themselves and their neighbors. Farmers should select wheat varieties with high resistance to fungal diseases as well as to apply fungicides to seed before drilling wheat this season. A number of wheat diseases were seen throughout the state prior to and during wheat harvest this summer.
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Wheat farmers should also control their volunteer wheat in order to prevent severe problems that could cost both them, and their neighbors, a pretty penny. Volunteer wheat carries several risks, such as wheat streak mosaic virus, wheat curl mites, hessian flies, Russian wheat aphids, Takeall, barley yellow dwarf virus and many more. Keep in mind that it is critical that all volunteer wheat within a 1/2 mile be completely dead for at least two weeks prior to planting in the fall. Wheat streak mosaic virus is the most important risk of volunteer wheat, and it has the largest impact. Barley yellow dwarf can also be prevented by controlling volunteer wheat. While volunteer 1010 Rediscover WHWH E ATE AT | OCTOBER 2015 Rediscover | AUGUST 2015
wheat isn’t the root cause of these issues, it is the first line of defense against them. Destroying the “green bridge,” the grasses that harbor disease-ridden insects, and waiting for two weeks ensures that the insects and the diseases they carry, both onto your fields and your neighbors’, are no longer threats to your crops. In addition to stripe rust, head scab, wheat streak mosaic virus and barley yellow dwarf, wheat flag smut was found in the state for the first time in decades. According to Jeff Vogel, the Kansas Department of Agriculture’s Plant Protection and Weed Control program manager, “Research has shown that the use of certified seed combined with fungicide seed treatments, is highly effective in preventing the spread of disease.” He noted that producers and seedsmen should follow proper protocols to ensure that a thorough and even application of fungicide is made to the seed to ensure a high level of product effectiveness. Wheat flag smut can lie dormant in the soil for as many as four or five years, so fungicide treatment is necessary to mitigate the disease.
K-State Research and Extension’s Seed Treatment Fungicides for Wheat Disease Management publication is an excellent source for wheat seed treatments frequently used. It states, “Fungicide seed treatments are an important part of wheat production in Kansas. Seed treatments can effectively manage seed-borne disease, such as common bunt, flag smut, and loose smut; generally improve stand establishment; suppress the development of root rot diseases; and inhibit the development of foliar diseases in the fall. Products containing insecticides also can reduce fall aphid populations and lower the risk of severe barley yellow dwarf. A wheat industry working group was assembled this summer to determine best voluntary management practices and mitigation strategies to help ensure that the presence of disease does not spread or increase in 2016. Kansas Wheat encourages producers to reach out to K-State Research & Extension expertise for best management practices.
Whole Grain Pumpkin Muffins Ingredients ½ cup all-purpose flour ½ cup white whole wheat flour 1 1/4 cups quick oats, dry ½ cup firmly packed brown sugar 1 teaspoon baking powder 1 teaspoon cinnamon ½ teaspoon baking soda ½ teaspoon salt ½ teaspoon nutmeg 1 cup canned pumpkin 1/3 cup olive oil ¼ cup skim milk 1 large egg, beaten 1 teaspoon vanilla extract Topping: 2 tablespoons all-purpose flour 2 tablespoons white whole wheat flour ¼ cup quick oats, dry ¼ cup firmly packed brown sugar 3 tablespoons unsalted sunflower seeds, chopped 1 teaspoon cinnamon ¼ cup butter, softened
Directions
1. Preheat oven to 400°F. Spray with non-stick cooking spray a 12 cup muffin tin. 2. In large bowl, combine all-purpose flour, whole wheat flour, oats, brown sugar, baking powder, cinnamon, baking soda, salt and nutmeg. Add pumpkin, oil, milk, egg and vanilla extract, stirring just until moistened. Fill prepared tins ¾ full.
Nutrition Information One muffin provides approximately 369 calories; 9 g protein; 52 g carbohydrates; 6 g dietary fiber; 14 g fat (3 g saturated); 26 mg cholesterol; 12 mcg folate; 3 mg iron and 210 mg sodium. Yield: 12 muffins
3. Combine topping ingredients; mix until crumbly. Sprinkle topping mixture evenly over muffins. Bake 14-15 minutes or until done. Remove from pan and cool on wire rack.
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Generating the Buzz Here's what the WFC cooked up to promote wheat and wheat foods in September: Media RDs. Our fall outreach generated strong interest among our media RD team. We achieved six placements for the price of four (good value), all in major media markets. We also hit a home run with messages centered on busting nutrition myths, and wheat foods for back to school. In the Big “Ten.” WFC-sponsored triathlete Michele Tuttle, MPH, RDN, finished in the top ten in her age group at the International Triathlete Union (ITU) World Championships in Chicago. We issued a pre-event press advisory and sent press releases to a number of fitness, senior lifestyle, and food and beverage publications. Kernels. The fall issue of the WFC popular e-magazine is in design and will arrive soon in your email box. Look for timely articles on the waning of the gluten-free fad and wheat foods in schools. We also shine the spotlight on “The Truth about Wheat” video produced by Oklahoma Public Television and the OK Wheat Commission. http://videos.oeta.tv/video/2365559197/
WFC Annual Meeting Housing Block Open Make your reservation before December 21,2015. This unique and exciting Annual Meeting is a MUST attend for WFC voting members and for all other membership levels as well. If you haven't attended our annual meeting in the past, this is an excellent time to start! All meetings will be held at the Saguaro Hotel in Old Town Scottsdale, AZ. Address: 4000 N Drinkwater Blvd, Scottsdale, AZ 85251; Phone: (480) 308-1100; Date: January 13-14, 2016 Important to Note: If you would like to upgrade your room or extend your stay you must call in versus using the web booking link. (pre/post nights are based on availability at the hotel.) The web booking link will only have sleeping rooms for 1/12/16 - 1/14/16. E-Confirmations will state there is a $22/Day Resort Fee, but it will be waived when you arrive at the property. Book hotel reservations by calling 1-877-808-2440 to book guestrooms until 12/21/15. Reference Wheat Foods Council or the Group Code: 1601WHEATF. 12
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Coming to FNCE? Be sure to visit us at booth #614 Meet the Wheat and Nutrition Experts There has been a lot of talk about wheat these days. Some has been insightful, some confusing and some just wrong. Now you can find out the facts. Talk to the experts at the Wheat Foods Council booth Sunday, October 4, and Monday, October 5. We’ll have a number of experts to provide information and answer all your questions.
Plus, we've got a great new recipe to taste and enter to win a Fitbit Flex!
NE Wheat Board Challenge The Nebraska Wheat Board challenges all WFC members to match their recent contribution of $50,000 to be used for a special project. Let us hear from you that you are accepting their challenge!
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State Fair Photo Contest To view more images visit www.kansaswheat. org/2015photo
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News from : NAWG Weekly Updates September 3, 2015 NAWG Pushes for House Action on Transportation Legislation Awide range of agriculture and industry organizations sent a letter to Members of the U.S. House of Representatives urging passage of a long-term transportation reauthorization bill. Before leaving for the August recess, Congress passed a shortterm extension of transportation programs, which included temporary funding for the Highway Trust Fund that expires at the end of October. The Senate also passed its own six-year reauthorization bill, but the House has not yet acted on its own longterm legislation. The letter discussed the importance of several specific issues that should be addressed in any final bill, including an extension of implementation of new Positive Train Control (PTC) requirements, the need for allowing for increased truck weight limits with a corresponding requirement for equipping trucks hauling bigger loads with an additional sixth axle, lowering the federal minimum age limit for CDLs to 18, and dropping the requirement for custom harvesters and others 16 Rediscover WH WHEE AT AT || OCTOBER OCTOBER 2015 2015 16
in the agriculture industry from having to get a hazardous materials endorsement in order to haul more than 118 gallons of diesel fuel. Additionally, the letter also calls on the House to conclude the reauthorization process for the Surface Transportation Board (STB), either through stand-alone legislation or through inclusion in a broader transportation bill. The Senate has also already acted on its own STB reauthorization bill. A copy of the letter can be found http://www.wheatworld.org/wpcontent/uploads/transportationHighway-Bill-Ag-Letter-toHouse-15.0903.pdf. Oklahoma Wheat Commission Produces“Truth About Wheat" The Oklahoma Wheat Commission, working in partnership with the Oklahoma Educational Television Authority (OETA), has produced a series titled “Truth About Wheat”. Wheat has been successfully feeding civilizations for over 10,000 years and has the nickname “Staff of Life”. Sit down at the dining room table tonight at 7:30 p.m. Central Time on OETA for an informative discussion with experts, Dr. Brett Carver, Regents Professor and Wheat Genetics Chair in Agriculture
from Oklahoma State University; Dr. Julie Miller-Jones, Board Certified Nutrition Specialist and Licensed Nutritionist and current Distinguished Scholar and Professor Emeritus of Nutrition at St. Catherine University in St. Paul, MN, and Sara Olsen, Colorado Wheat Farmer, Mother & Colorado Wheat Administrative Council board member moderated by wellknown agriculture reporter Ken Root. Check out the introduction video https://www.youtube. com /watch?v=bhvvndmqmf M&feature=youtu.be. For all presentation times, visit the Oklahoma Wheat website https:// www.okwheat.org/. NAWG Sponsors International Biotech Symposium The International Biotech Symposium, hosted by Illinois Soybean Association, was held in Bloomington, IL on August 31. The event served to highlight recent developments creating regulatory uncertainty of GM traits, with focus on the European Union and China. NAWG Research Director Steve Joehl participated in the event along with farmers, industry thought leaders, technology providers and international trading partners.
Industry experts presented information demonstrating regulatory delays are averaging more than three years for most traits. Information was also presented showing the economic impact these delays have on farmer productivity, technology provider profitability and consumers’ food availability and pricing. U.S. and international biotechnology companies will have many new transgenic events (in crops other than wheat) that increase crop yields and quality ready for registration by 2016. Unfortunately, the world is lacking a science-based approval system, preventing farmers from adopting this new technology and causing international trade disturbances. Regulatory roadblocks and divergent approval systems are slowing the biotechnology-driven yield advances needed to feed our growing world. Presenters encouraged attendees to coalesce messages aimed at the consumer on the societal benefit of biotechnology and to reach out to legislators urging the need for timely, synchronous approvals across all countries. NAWG Joins the Honey Bee Health Coalition This summer NAWG officially joined the Honey Bee Health Coalition (HBHC), a group working collaboratively to implement solutions that will help achieve a healthy population of honey bees—both native and managed pollinators— in the contest of productive agricultural systems and thriving ecosystems. With the ongoing conversations around the country regarding pollinator health
and crop protection tools, this forum allows all members to work collaboratively to address ongoing policy discussions. HBHC developed a Bee Healthy Roadmap, creating goals around hive management, nutrition and forage, crop protection management and outreach, education and communication. Other members include other grower groups, conservation groups, beekeepers, researches, agribusinesses and government agencies. Visit http:// honeybeehealthcoalition.org/ building-a-coalition/ for more information on the coalition and to see a complete list of members. University of Illinois Seeks Feedback on Farm Bill Decision Tools The 2014 Farm Bill included resources for some universities and USDA’s Extension Service to be able to develop tools to assist producers with choosing between the new Title 1 programs, the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) program and the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program. One of the institutions that developed a web-based decision tool was the University of Illinois at UrbanaChampaign. Following the first year of implementation, the University of Illinois is seeking feedback from producers about the factors that played a role in their decisions and whether these tools were utilized. To gather this feedback, they have developed a survey, which is voluntary and confidential; any data collected will be averaged and reported in aggregate only. Individual information and responses will not be made public. If you would like to share your feedback, more information about the survey can
be found at https://illinoisaces. co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_ aWS3eLDsl7oxU2x.
September 10, 2015 Apply NOW for the 2015 WILOT Program The National Wheat Foundation’s (NWF) WILOT Program, funded by a grant from Monsanto, is now in its 19th year and is open to 10 selected U.S. wheat growers interested in serving in a leadership position at the state or national level. The 2015 Wheat Industry Leaders of Tomorrow (WILOT) Program is set for Saturday, November 14, through Thursday, November 19, in St Louis. Speakers include: Joyce Schaeffer (Myers-Briggs; Working Productively with Others), Jana McGuire, Center for Food Integrity (Trust in the US Food Supply and Communicating with the Public), Dr. Barry Flinchbaugh, Kansas State (Ag Economics and Policy) and the Standing Partnership (media training/messaging) who will be sharing some of their experience prepping WILOT class members for the media and the podium. The class will also be involved in discussions about current and forthcoming Monsanto wheat innovation. NAWG Calls on Congress to Act on Tax Extenders NAWG joined a broad coalition of more than 2,000 companies, associations, and organizations in writing to members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate urging Congress to act immediately to extend, enhance, or make permanent expired and expiring tax provisions that are important for agricultural Rediscover WH WHEEAT AT || OCTOBER OCTOBER 2015 17 Rediscover 2015 17
producers across the country. Provisions, including Section 179 expensing and bonus depreciation, expired at the end of last year, though there have been efforts underway to retroactively extend those provisions to cover this year and next year. Earlier this summer, the Senate Finance Committee approved tax extenders legislation, which included Section 179 and bonus depreciation; however, the full Senate has not yet acted. NAWG continues to advocate for Congressional action to extend these provisions, and also urges Congress to act on comprehensive tax reform to give long-term certainty to producers. To read the full letter visit http://www. wheatworld.org/wp-content/ uploads/0910-Tax_Extenders_ Final.pdf. The Truth About Glyphosate, Part 4: Why does USDA collect farm data? The fourth blog in a five-part series about glyphosate use in wheat is now accessible on the National Wheat Foundation “The Word on Wheat” blog. Given the mischaracterization of herbicide use in wheat, the National Wheat Foundation has been promoting the truth about glyphosate use through the Foundation blog and social media pages. The truth is, there is data to support U.S. wheat growers’ responsible use of glyphosate in their fields, but USDA collects data for more than just the scientific evidence to dispel activist claims. Among other things, the USDA aims to meet the needs of farmers and ranchers, promote agricultural production, work to assure food safety, protect natural 18 18
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resources and end hunger in the U.S. The USDA plays a very important role for the people of the United States. In the vein of protecting natural resources and ensuring our food supply is safe, the USDA monitors the use of all pesticides used to enable the production of our food. Having the data allows the USDA to evaluate the safety of the nation’s food supply, assess risks and benefits, make decisions about product registrations, quantify the benefits of conservation practices and market commodities internationally. For wheat, surveys have been done in 2000, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012 and the next one is scheduled for 2017. While USDA’s survey data do not separate applications of any pesticide by when it was applied or allow calculations of the percentage of acres treated, they do show an increase in the overall use of glyphosate on wheat across the years surveyed. To read the full blog post, visit the NWF blog page http:// wheatfoundation.org/the-truthabout-glyphosate-part-4-whydoes-usda-collect-farm-data/. To read the previous posts in the series, visit the National Wheat Foundation blog at wheatfoundation.org. NAWG, USW Grower Leaders in DC Next Week Grower leaders from NAWG and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) were in Washington, D.C. for a press conference announcing the results of a new, groundbreaking econometric study sponsored by USW. The study shows that excessive subsidies in China, India, Turkey and Brazil significantly drive down U.S.
wheat farm gate prices, alter trade flows and manipulate planting decisions. For more information on who spoke at the press conference visit http://www.wheatworld. org/news-events/2015/09/ media-advisory-study-showsexcessive-domestic-support-byadvanced-developing-countrieshurt-u-s-wheat-farmer-income/. Oklahoma Wheat Commission Produces“Truth About Wheat" Oklahoma Educational Television Authority (OETA) aired “The Truth About Wheat.” Produced by Oklahoma Wheat Commission, the video includes an informative discussion with experts, Dr. Brett Carver, Regents Professor and Wheat Genetics Chair in Agriculture from Oklahoma State University; Dr. Julie Miller-Jones, Board Certified Nutrition Specialist and Licensed Nutritionist and current Distinguished Scholar and Professor Emeritus of Nutrition at St. Catherine University in St. Paul, MN, and Sara Olsen, Colorado Wheat Farmer, Mother & Colorado Wheat Administrative Council board member moderated by well-known agriculture reporter Ken Root. The full episode can be viewed http://videos.oeta.tv/ video/2365559197/.
September 17, 2015 Senate Ag Committee Approves Grain Standards Act Bill The Senate Agriculture Committee considered legislation to reauthorize a number of programs, including the Grain Standards Act, which establishes
the framework for the functioning of the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS). This markup followed Committee action earlier this summer on a different bill to reauthorize the GSA.
re-GSA-reauthorization-9-17-15. pdf and NAWG’s statement at http://www.wheatworld.org/newsevents/2015/09/wheat-growerspleased-by-senate-ag-committeeaction-on-grain-standards-act/.
wheat-trade-hurts-farm-revenue/ to read the complete release and http://www.wheatworld.org/ wp-content/uploads/DomesticSupport-Econometric-StudyFULL.pdf to view the study.
“NAWG is very supportive of this bipartisan bill. We need to prevent port disruptions like that which we saw at the Port of Vancouver last year. It is vital that we remain the world’s reliable supplier of wheat. This bill will establish more transparency and will help ensure there is no disruption in inspection services should a delegated state agency discontinue providing services. NAWG urges Congress to act on the bill to prevent a lapse in authorization,” said NAWG president Brett Blankenship.
Wheat Leaders Reveal Domestic Support Study
NAWG Files Comments on CRP
NAWG sent a letter with the American Farm Bureau Federation, American Soybean Association, National Barley Growers Association, and National Corn Growers Association to the Senate Agriculture Committee supporting the bill and urging swift action through the rest of the reauthorization process. NAWG has continually advocated for maintaining delegated State authority for inspections and has pushed for more transparency in the function of those agencies and FGIS. Additionally, NAWG pushed for inclusion of directive language to USDA to ensure that, should a delegated State agency discontinue inspection services, FGIS steps in immediately to avoid any disruption in inspections. View the letter at http://www. wheatworld.org/wp-content/ uploads/Ag-Group-Letter-toSenate-Agriculture-Committee-
The National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) and U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) unveiled the results of an econometric study showing that excessive farm support in several advanced developing countries could cost U.S. wheat farmers nearly $1 billion in revenue every year. Author of the study, Dr. Dermot Hayes, spoke at the press conference. “The results confirm that if domestic support were removed wheat prices in the countries modeled would go down and farmers would plant less wheat, but domestic consumption would go up,” Hayes said. “The lower supply would lead to higher global wheat prices, which tend to benefit wheat exporting countries including the United States.” “Wheat prices have plummeted more than 30 percent since last year, a significant portion of which is due to these countries’ market distorting policies, which send the wrong signals to their farmers. This hurts American family farms like mine even more,” said Brett Blankenship, NAWG President and wheat grower from Washtucna, Wash. WTO records show that the United States has consistently met its commitments, never exceeding its Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS) limit of $19.1 billion. Visit http://www.wheatworld.org/newsevents/2015/09/excessive-foreignfarm-support-disrupts-world-
NAWG submitted comments to the Farm Service Agency (FSA) regarding the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). The 2014 Farm Bill included several changes to CRP and NAWG’s comment provided input on the modifications to the program and additional program changes that FSA is undertaking. NAWG supports many of the Farm Bill changes, including modification of haying and grazing provisions but is concerned about administrative provisions that include restricting use of the CRP program if a grower is required to take action by state, local or tribal law and modifications to the state priority areas. To view a copy of the letter visit http://www.wheatworld.org/ wp-content/uploads/NAWGComments-on-CRP-9-14-15.pdf. NAWG also joined with several other commodity groups including the American Soybean Association, the National Corn Growers Association and the National Cotton Council to file joint comments on CRP. These comments also supported many of the Farm Bill changes to CRP and stressed the need to work with growers to design conservation practices that can be successfully implemented by growers and expressing concern with requirements for establishing pollinator habitat through CRP. To view a copy of the joint letter, visit http://www. WHEEAT AT || OCTOBER OCTOBER 2015 2015 19 19 Rediscover WH
wheatworld.org/wp-content/ uploads/Joint-Commodity-CRPComments-9-14-15.pdf. NAWG participates in Field to Market Meetings Field to Market: the Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture, held working group meetings in Washington, D.C. NAWG attended to represent wheat growers. NAWG Treasurer, David Schemm, participated in the Technology working group that focused on data retention through the field print calculator and the link with additional software programs. NAWG Environmental Policy Advisor is participating in the Information, Communication and Engagement working group. The working group discussed education and outreach efforts and received an update on the development of new curriculum for certified crop advisors. The Word on Wheat Blog Welcomes, Registered Dietician, “Healthy Holly” The Word on Wheat Blog is partnering with Hy-Vee Registered Dietician, Holly Ellison. Holly be a regular contributor to the blog and will share fun facts about food, health and wellness tips and delicious recipes. My name is Holly Ellison, RD, LD, a.k.a “Healthy Holly” and I am a Registered Dietitian and Licensed Dietitian at Hy-Vee grocery store in Mankato, Minn. As a Hy-Vee dietitian I aspire to help make people’s lives easier, healthier and happier. Along with being a registered dietitian I am also a wife, foodie, CrossFitter, dog lover, adventure, lover of the outdoors and a child at heart. 20 2015 20 Rediscover Rediscover WH WHEE AT AT || OCTOBER OCTOBER 2015
I have a Bachelor of Science degree in dietetics and exercise science from Minnesota State University, Mankato, MN and I completed my postgraduate dietetic internship through the University of Wisconsin, Green Bay, WI. I am truly passionate about sharing my love and knowledge of food, nutrition and wellness with others. I enjoy teaching others about new foods and cooking techniques and I love sharing delicious and nutritious recipes. Read the full post at http://wheatfoundation. org/welcome-registered-dieticianhealthy-holly/. Sawyer Brown to Headline Commodity Classic Evening of Entertainment When the record-breaking Commodity Classic convention and trade show wraps up next March in New Orleans, it’s going out in style – with an Evening of Entertainment, sponsored by Monsanto, spotlighting the multiple-award-winning country band Sawyer Brown. Since the band was founded in Florida the early 1980s, Sawyer Brown lead vocalist Mark Miller and crew have put in more than 4,500 shows and counting, spotlighting a stunning discography of 23 albums and more than 50 chart singles. Commodity Classic takes place March 3-5, 2016, at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center in New Orleans. Visit www. CommodityClassic.com for more information.
September 24, 2015 Senate Approves Grain Standards Act Legislation On Monday, the Senate passed H.R. 2051, the Agriculture Reauthorizations Act of 2015, by unanimous consent. The legislation includes three titles, including a reauthorization of the Grain Standards Act through 2020. This action follows Senate Agriculture Committee approval of the legislation last week. NAWG supported the bill, and sent a letter to the Committee with the American Farm Bureau Federation, American Soybean Association, National Barley Growers Association, and National Corn Growers Association outlining provisions of the bill that would expand transparency of the operations of the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) and help to avoid any future disruptions in grain inspection operations. Following Senate action, the bill heads to the House of Representatives, where Committee and floor action will occur. NAWG Urges President Obama to Speak on Biotechnology During President Xi Visit Last week NAWG, along with other members of the U.S. Biotechnology Crop Alliance, sent a letter urging President Obama to discuss biotechnology during the visit from China’s president. The letter requests a conversation that will prioritize on “practical, trade facilitating measures to ensure increased Chinese access to the products of U.S. agriculture.” With concern over China’s approval and import of biotechnology products the
letter specifies the need to discuss a “transparent, predictable and practical approach.” In coordination with the visit, today the U.S. Trade Representative is hosting a full day meeting of the first U.S.-China Strategic Agricultural Innovation Dialogue. Industry, academics and government officials are in attendance to discuss policy and regulatory issues in biotechnology, big data and other areas of agriculture. Wheat Foundation Accepting Applications for Jerry Minore Scholarship The National Wheat Foundation (NWF) is accepting applications for the Jerry Minore Memorial Scholarship. Four scholarships will be awarded to students who have a personal connection to the wheat industry and a planned career path in agriculture. The scholarship is named in honor of Jerry Minore, a longtime friend of, and an active participant in, the wheat industry. To honor Jerry’s life and work, the Minore Memorial Scholarship will fund two $1,500 scholarships and two $1,000 scholarships for the 2016-2017 academic year. All applications must be post-marked on or before December 11, 2015. Applications can be found at http://wheatfoundation.org/wpcontent/uploads/2015/08/JerryMinore-Memorial-ScholarshipApplication-2015.pdf and emailed to PMillard@wheatworld.org. Application Extension for 2015 WILOT Program The deadline for submitting applications for the Wheat Industry Leaders of Tomorrow (WILOT) Program has been
extended through September 30. The National Wheat Foundation’s (NWF) WILOT Program, funded by a grant from Monsanto, is now in its 19th year and is open to 10 selected U.S. wheat growers interested in serving in a leadership position at the state or national level. The 2015 Wheat Industry Leaders of Tomorrow (WILOT) Program is set for Saturday, November 14, through Thursday, November 19, in St Louis. Speakers include: Joyce Schaeffer (Myers-Briggs; Working Productively with Others), Jana McGuire, Center for Food Integrity (Trust in the US Food Supply and Communicating with the Public), Dr. Barry Flinchbaugh, Kansas State (Ag Economics and Policy) and the Standing Partnership (media training/messaging) who will be sharing some of their experience prepping WILOT class members for the media and the podium. The class will also be involved in discussions about current and forthcoming Monsanto wheat innovation. Go to http:// www.wheatfoundation.org/wpcontent/uploads/2012/10/NWFLeadership-Training-Application. pdf to apply. Celebrate National Whole Grains Month The leaves are starting to change colors and football games are scattering the calendars. September marks the beginning of fall, but it is also a time to sink your teeth into whole grain goodness. Originally established in 2007 by the Whole Grains Council, Whole Grains Month celebrates the nutritious and delicious foods American wheat farmers work so diligently to produce.
According to an infographic by the Grain Foods Foundation, grains account for 15 percent of the average 2,110 calories consumed by Americans, and contrary to popular belief, whole grains provide many essential nutrients that are important for a healthy, balanced diet. Grains are the largest source of Fiber in the diet for most Americans and a good source of other key nutrients, such as: iron, magnesium, calcium, vitamin E and potassium. The valuable nutrients and antioxidants found in whole grains have also been found to reduce the risks of coronary heart disease, the number one cause of death in the U.S. Read the full blog post at http://wheatfoundation.org/ celebrate-national-whole-grainsmonth/.
October 1, 2015 Congress Passes Continuing Resolution to Avert Government Shutdown Neither the House nor the Senate having completed action on any appropriations bills on the last day of the fiscal year, Congress passed a continuing resolution (CR) to continue funding the government under the FY 2015 law through December 11, 2015. With this action, Congress will now be tasked with either passing another CR at that time, working on individual appropriations bills, or developing a new omnibus appropriations bill. In addition to appropriations work this fall, Congress is also expected to address a long-term transportation bill, tax extensions and an increase in the debt ceiling. Rediscover OCTOBER 2015 RediscoverWH WHEEAT AT| |OCTOBER 2015 21 21
Agriculture Reauthorizations Act of 2015 Passes in the House The House passed the Agriculture Reauthorizations Act of 2015, and President Obama signed the bill into law. The Agriculture Reauthorizations Act of 2015 includes three separate titles, including one to reauthorize the Grain Standards Act for five years. This component of the bill would require the USDA’s Federal Grain Inspection Service to immediately take such steps as are necessary to resume inspections when a delegated state agency discontinues services. Additionally, the reauthorization will require a recertification process, including a public comment period for delegated state agencies, as well as several reporting requirements to ensure transparency. “This bill establishes more transparency and ensures there is no disruption in inspection services should a delegated state agency discontinue providing services. This bill provides the certainty wheat growers need. It’s important to have bipartisan bills like this make their way through Congress, and we look forward to the president signing the bill into law,” commented NAWG President and wheat grower Brett Blankenship. Senate Hearing Focuses on Army Corps The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee held a hearing with Jo-Ellen Darcy, assistant secretary of the Army for Civil Works, discussing the Waters of the U.S. regulation. Senators focused on the comments of Army Corps of Engineers staff in memos regarding negotiations 22 E AT | OCTOBER 2015 22Rediscover RediscoverWH WHE AT | OCTOBER 2015
with the EPA on the final rule issued in May. The internal memos, released during a committee meeting in the House of Representatives in July, raise questions about the involvement of the Army Corps and extensive questions the staff raised regarding elements of the regulation, including definitions of which waters would become jurisdictional under the final regulation. Assistant Secretary Darcy stated that she supports the regulation and stands behind the final rule. Lawsuits against the EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers are pending in several states, and the regulation is currently in effect in 37 of the 50 states. NAWG supports providing regulatory relief from the expansive Waters of the U.S. regulation and urges Congress to pass standalone legislation to send the regulation back to EPA and the Army Corps or restrict funding to the agencies to prohibit implementation in end of year funding bills. House Agriculture Committee Holds Food Aid Hearing The House Agriculture Committee invited commodity groups, private volunteer organizations and U.S. food aid suppliers to testify in front of the full committee on food aid. The testimonies largely discussed the need to continue U.S. agricultural products in the Food for Peace program. The American Soybean Association and USA Rice Federation testified regarding the importance the program has to farmers across the nation. In his opening statement, Chairman Conaway (R-TX) stated, “It is clear … that efforts have only just begun to evaluate
the benefits of the flexibility provided in the 2014 Farm Bill [and] those findings underscored my view that the continued push for added program flexibility is premature.” As the committee continues to review the Food for Peace program, NAWG supports efforts to keep food in food aid that provides many around the world a safe source of nutrition to which they would not otherwise have access. You can view the full hearing at http:// agriculture.house.gov/hearing/ full-committee-agriculture%E2%80%93-public-hearing-usinternational-food-aid-programs. EPA Releases Final Worker Protection Standard The EPA released the final revised worker protection standard, the first update in more than 20 years. The regulation addresses protections for farmworkers that work in fields treated by pesticides and pesticide handlers that mix or apply pesticides. The regulation requires annual mandatory training for farmworkers, new noentry application exclusion zones and mandatory recordkeeping of pesticide application and farmworker training for two years. It also requires alignment with the U.S. Department of Labor’s standards for personal protective equipment e.g., respirators including a fit test and medical evaluation, and a prohibition on anyone less than 18 years of age handling pesticides, except for an exemption for immediate family for farm owners. The regulation will become effective one year and 60 days after it is published in the Federal Register. New requirements for safety training, pesticide safety information
and requirements to suspend applications when anyone is in the application exclusion zone will not be effective until two years after the date of publication. TPP Negotiators Meet in Atlanta Chief negotiators of countries participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks met in Atlanta. News reports indicated that some of the outstanding issues of discussion included dairy supports, rules of origin for automobiles and patent protections for biologic drugs. The status of wheat in those discussions is still unclear, but NAWG continues to engage the administration in pushing for expanded market access for U.S. wheat farmers in countries like Japan and Vietnam. If no final agreement is reached, negotiations could extend into the fall.
between U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China for cooperation in agriculture and related fields. It outlined the commitment both countries made to improve the biotechnology approval processes through implementation of timely, transparent, predictable and science-based processes. NAWG remains engaged in these conversations as we support strong biotech policy and a
streamlined approval process domestically and internationally. You can read the full fact sheet at https://www.whitehouse.gov/thepress-office/2015/09/25/fact-sheetus-china-economic-relations.
U.S.-China Strategic Agriculture Innovation Dialogue During Chinese President Xi’s visit, U.S. and Chinese government officials held an important conversation and the first of what is hoped to be an annual meeting to discuss strategic agricultural innovations. The dialogue featured presentations by Chinese and American companies and academics primarily on the topic of biotechnology. Shortly after the meeting, the White House released a “U.S.-China Economic Relations” fact sheet that discussed the meeting and hopes for future meetings. The fact sheet stated that the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and China’s Minister of Agriculture renewed the memorandum of understanding Rediscover OCTOBER 2015 23 RediscoverWH WHEEAT AT| |OCTOBER 2015 23
News from : September 24, 2015 U.S. Spring Wheat Yields Excellent Quality at Substantially Lower Cost By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst In its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA predicted world wheat production for marketing year 2015/16 would reach 732 million metric tons (MMT). As they wrap up their harvests, farmers across the northern hemisphere will likely put about 681 MMT of that total into the bins. Southern hemisphere farmers will produce only about seven percent of world wheat production, with much of that grown in Australia and Argentina, which, on average, export 75 percent and 50 percent of their total production, respectively. Consequently, while the southern hemisphere harvest plays an important role in export markets, the quantity and quality of northern hemisphere wheat looms quite large for the world’s millers and wheat food processors. This year, U.S. farmers will produce an anticipated 58.1 MMT of wheat after slightly higher yields and a five percent increase in harvested acres offset a one percent decline in planted acres. In particular, U.S. hard 24 2015 24 Rediscover RediscoverWH WHEEAT AT| |OCTOBER OCTOBER 2015
red spring (HRS) production, which accounts for 27 percent of total U.S. wheat production, will reach an estimated 15.7 MMT, the largest crop since 1996/97. In addition, favorable weather, efficient agronomics and the use of high potential, certified seed combined to produce a big crop with excellent quality for end use customers. As of Sept. 18, with only three percent of the HRS crop still to be harvested, USW reported average protein at 14.2 percent (12 percent moisture), up from 2014’s final of 13.6 percent, and average test weight at 61.4 lb/bu (80.7 kg/hl) up from 60.8 lb/bu (80.0 kg/hl) last year. The preliminary data also shows the average grade is No. 1 dark northern spring (DNS) with an average vitreous kernel content (DHV) of 77 percent compared to an average of 60 percent in 2014. Here is more good HRS news for buyers: at FOB $234 per MT, DNS 13.5 percent protein, December delivery PNW is $116 per MT less than it was last year on about the same date. While acknowledging that the strong U.S. dollar has diminished the impact of lower prices, this is still a very good price for very good HRS wheat. As they do every year, buyers and end-users have the opportunity to follow the U.S. wheat harvest and quality because USW works closely with state
wheat commission members and several partners to analyze representative samples and report progress each Friday (http://www. uswheat.org/harvest). USW and its partners will complete flour and dough analysis and provide complete summaries of quality data for HRS, as well as for five other U.S. wheat classes, in its annual Crop Quality report. USW has already posted a preliminary soft red winter (SRW) report on its website (http://www.uswheat. org/cropQuality). USW will continue its tradition of sharing the data publicly and with its customers around the world through Crop Quality Seminars or personal visits. Sharing such information with complete transparency is critical for end-use customers and USW’s record of reporting it is decades old. U.S. wheat is, in part, the world’s most reliable supply because it always comes with the information customers need to get the best value possible. Excessive Foreign Farm Support Disrupts World Wheat Trade Over the past few years, USW has publicly shown evidence that governments in several advanced developing countries have dramatically increased subsidies for domestic wheat production to levels that far exceed their World Trade Organization (WTO)
agreements. Last week, USW and the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) unveiled the results of an econometric study confirming that such policies have a detrimental effect on U.S. and world wheat farmers and global wheat trade. “I believe we have shown through these studies that the old perceptions about farm support and trade are clearly wrong,” said USW President Alan Tracy. “Today, it is the farm subsidies in a few advanced developing countries, not developed country policies, which disrupt normal trade flows and distort world wheat prices. These rapidly growing subsidies cause direct, serious and now measurable impacts on the prices that U.S. farmers receive for their grain.” Noted agricultural economist Dr. Dermot Hayes and two of his colleagues at Iowa State University conducted the study. The goal was to determine what would happen to U.S. and global wheat production, trade and prices if domestic support in China, India, Turkey and Brazil were removed.
countries would have. For example, a DTB Associates study in 2014 showed that in addition to government input subsidies coupled to wheat production, Chinese farmers have government minimum support prices of about $10.45 per bushel, or about $384 per MT. The Hayes study indicated that if support in China ended, Chinese imports would grow from nearly 2.0 MMT per year to more than 7.5 MMT per year. This would still be less than the 9.6 MMT annual tariff rate quota that China agreed to in its WTO accession commitments. Hayes said the model showed that even with the predicted changes, China, India, and Turkey would continue to be at least 90 percent self-sufficient in wheat production. Eliminating domestic support would have the least effect in Brazil where support levels are lower than the other countries.
The study indicated that with no domestic support in those countries, wheat trade flows would shift and the four countries would increase net imports by nearly 10 MMT. Hayes said the model estimated the United States would capture more than 20 percent of such an increase to export an additional 2.2 MMT compared to the model’s baseline if there were no changes in domestic support in those countries.
WTO records show that the United States has consistently met its commitments, never exceeding its Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS) limit of $19.1 billion. Nevertheless, other proposals made as part of the Doha round would require the United States to cut its limit drastically, while members with growing support programs would offer no meaningful contributions. Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Amb. Michael Punke has called this a “mind-boggling imbalance” that firmly underpins the U.S. position that it is critical to put facts on the table for a frank discussion about the real dynamic of world agricultural production and trade.
Hayes’ team also used the model to predict the net effect that eliminating support in individual
In reference to current negotiations in the Doha round, Brett Blankenship, who grows soft
white wheat near Washtucna, WA, and current NAWG president, said, “It is totally unacceptable to tolerate demands from countries who are in violation of their WTO commitments, who continue with these huge levels of support while demanding concessions from the United States.” "Since these subsidies are the acts of sovereign governments, our farmers cannot battle them alone. We are working with USTR and USDA to determine our next steps, including a possible WTO challenge," Tracy concluded. USW and NAWG have posted the study results online at www.uswheat. org/policy and http://www. wheatworld.org/issues/trade/. To see results of the two DTB Associates studies measuring domestic support in advanced developing countries, visit www.dtbassociates.com/docs/ DomesticSupportStudy11-2014. pdf and www.dtbassociates.com/ docs/domesticsupportstudy.pdf. For a third party analysis of individual policy measures by country, visit http://www.oecd. org/tad/agricultural-policies/ producerandconsumersupportest imatesdatabases.htm#country. Victories for Science in Africa By Elizabeth Westendorf, USW Policy Specialist Changes in crop biotechnology policies around the world are often arduously slow and rarely make headlines. However, one country in Sub-Saharan Africa broke out of that mold in early August 2015. In a landmark announcement by Deputy President William Ruto, RediscoverWH WHEEAT AT| |OCTOBER OCTOBER 2015 25 Rediscover 2015 25
Kenya committed to lifting its ban on genetically modified (GM) foods. According to multiple news reports, the country is also heading toward commercial release of Bt maize and possibly Bt cotton. This represents a milestone in Kenya’s agricultural biotechnology development, though it may still require a strong test of political will to see the changes implemented. Kenya has had a strong domestic agriculture research program for years that includes wheat research and biotechnology (read more online at “Kenya Wheat Team Wins. Prestigious 2015 Gene Stewardship Award”). Lifting the ban on GM crops may allow Kenya to become a regional leader for agricultural innovation and serve as a catalyst for GM adoption. In a recent “Truth About Trade and Technology” article, Kenyan farmer and university lecturer Gilbert arap Bor wrote, “Many other countries — and not merely those in eastern Africa — look to [Kenya] for leadership. Our acceptance of biotechnology bodes well for farmers in Cameroon, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda.” These farmers could use GM traits to improve food security through crops well suited to Africa, such as bananas, cassava, sorghum, corn and sweet potatoes. According to Charles Waturu, the director of the Horticultural Institute in Kenya, Bt cotton could save farmers up to $700 per hectare by reducing the need for pesticides. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) attachés monitor biotechnology developments 26
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in their country posts. FAS summarizes these valuable insights in an Agricultural Biotechnology Annual and highlights any changes in each of these country’s regulations, plantings, imports or general market acceptance. Recently published reports for a number of countries, including Kenya, Thailand, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Pakistan, South Africa, Canada, United Kingdom, Chile, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Korea, Taiwan, Philippines and Australia, are available at http://gain.fas.usda. gov/Pages/Default.aspx. The reports show other African countries also moving forward with biotechnology research and regulation. Ethiopia had a de facto ban on planting and research for biotech crops and struggled for years to gain consensus on the technology. In 2015, they adopted changes to allow for commercialization, allowing farmers to plant biotech cotton and take advantage of the benefits other countries were seeing from the crop. In Burkina Faso for example yields increased 20 percent, pesticide use fell 67 percent and profits increased 51 percent. Ghana may also commercialize Bt cowpea or GM cotton within the next three years with similar economic benefits possible. This year, Côte d’Ivoire adopted the Cartagena Protocol, an international agreement on biosafety, and is now drafting a biosafety law, while Senegal is revising its biosafety law. The West African Economic and Monetary Union adopted a regional biosafety law earlier this year. Its members include Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo.
Africa will be a bellwether for future biotechnology acceptance worldwide, and the stakes are high. The continent is often highly influenced by European opinions, so positive changes in biotechnology are uncommon. As more countries embrace sciencebased policies and regulations, there is hope for wider acceptance of innovations. On a continent having trouble keeping up with booming population growth, biotechnology is a vital tool in food security. Changes in SubSaharan Africa are especially interesting because of the high prevalence of food insecurity in the region and the need for new, innovative technology to feed those populations. Acceptance of biotechnology as one of the tools for seed improvement would give farmers new options for growing food as well as increasing both yields and yield consistency. The stakes are specifically high for world wheat production, too. As demand for the crop increases, farmers everywhere must respond by growing more wheat while using fewer resources. Thanks to Taiwan Flour Millers for Their Commitment to U.S. Wheat Representatives of the Taiwan Flour Millers Association (TFMA) visited Washington, DC on Sept. 14 as part of a biennial Agricultural Trade Goodwill Mission to the United States. TFMA imports wheat on behalf of all 20 Taiwanese flour mills and has been a loyal customer of U.S. wheat producers for many years. At a signing ceremony in the U.S. Capitol, USW President Alan
Tracy and Shin-Yao Lin, chief executive officer of Top Food Flour Mill in Taipei, Taiwan, and current TFMA Executive Director, co-signed a letter of intent committing TFMA to purchase U.S. wheat (see photo in the online edition of “Wheat Letter.”) Representatives of the U.S. Grains Council and the American Soybean Association co-signed separate letters with other Taiwanese buyers. The letters committed Taiwanese buyers to purchase approximately $3.03 billion worth of U.S. wheat, corn and co-products, and soybeans by 2017. Delegates from TFMA started their visit to the United States as honored guests of the Idaho Wheat Commission at the Lewiston Roundup Rodeo Sept. 12 (see photo in the online edition). After the events in Washington, DC, the flour millers continued their part of the mission Sept. 17 with visits to Kansas, Montana and Washington to meet with state wheat commission and government representatives before returning to Taiwan Sept. 23. “U.S. wheat farmers have maintained a trade office in Taipei since 1966,” Tracy said. “We are proud of that and also quite proud that USW Country Director Ron Lu has been a faithful part of that service for more than 33 years. We want to thank our customers at TFMA for importing significantly more U.S. wheat than the 1.7 MMT in the agreement signed in 2013.” More photos from the signing event are available at https:// www.flickr.com/photos/usgc/ albums/72157658602271702.
Japanese Millers Trade Team Visit Three States In 2016, the USW will mark 60 years with a marketing office in Japan, so it comes as no surprise that in marketing year 2014/15, Japan was the single largest buyer of wheat from the United States. In the same year, Japan was also the biggest market for U.S. HRS and SW wheat. To learn more about the high quality wheat to which their customers have become accustomed, a team of mid-level managers from Japanese flour mills have been visiting Oregon, Idaho and Montana since Sept. 20, 2015. Millers on this team are executives from milling companies representing Japan’s National Cooperative of Millers. The first trade team from this group of millers visited the United States in 2014. USW collaborated with the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee, Oregon Wheat Commission and Idaho Wheat Commission to organize and host this year’s visit. “These mid-level managers will eventually ascend to senior management positions and hopefully take with them an understanding that the United States produces the highest quality wheat for Japan,” said Steve Wirsching, USW vice president and director of the West Coast Office in Portland, OR. “This trade team visit creates an opportunity for us to increase their positive view of U.S. wheat and ensure we can continue to compete in Japan in the future.” The milling managers began their trip in Portland, hosted by the USW West Coast Office, for briefings with the Federal Grain
Inspection Service (FGIS) and Wheat Marketing Center. While in Oregon, the team also toured the Columbia Grain export terminal and visited OMIC USA. Continuing their trip in Boise, ID, the team met with Scoular Grain and the Idaho State Department of Agriculture and toured the Swan Falls Dam and lock system on the Snake River. To complete their tour of the Pacific Northwest, the team traveled to Montana to tour shuttle train loading facilities operated by Gavilon Grain in Chester and United Grain in Moccasin. Other stops include the Central Ag Research Center near Moccasin and Myllymaki Farms outside of Livingston. Throughout their trip, the team members have met with wheat farmers the sponsoring state wheat commissions and others who manage the U.S. wheat supply chain. Wheat Industry News A Kansas State University Wheat Geneticist is Part of a Breakthrough Study, identifying one of the wheat genes that controls response to low temperature exposure, a process called vernalization. Natural variation in vernalization genes defines when the plant begins to flower and is critical for adaptation to different environments. Eduard Akhunov, associate professor in the plant pathology department, collaborated with Jorge Dubcovsky at the University of California, Davis on what researchers anticipate will help wheat breeders design wheat varieties that can adapt and thrive in changing environments around the world. Read the full story at http://www.my.ksu.edu/ RediscoverWH WHEEAT AT| |OCTOBER OCTOBER2015 2015 27 27 Rediscover
media/newsreleases/sept15/ vernalization9215.html. 2015 World Food Prize Winner, Sanjaya Rajaram, Says GM Technology is Needed to feed the world into the future. Participating in a panel discussion on a radio network in Australia recently, the renowned wheat breeder said hybrid breeding may increase production by 20 to 25 percent, but that will not be enough to leave genetic modification out of the mix. Listen to or read his comments at http://www.abc.net.au/pm/ content/2015/s4315659.htm. Bayer CropScience Seeds Innovation Center Opened on campus at Texas Tech University Sept. 2. The center features state-of-the-art laboratories and research facilities, including a new greenhouse. The center will host the company’s global cotton business operations while also supporting wheat and soybean seed improvement research. Read the full announcement at https:// www.bayercropscience.us/news/ press-releases/2015/090215-bayercropscience-texas-tech-universityopen-bayer-cropscience-seedsinnovation-center. DuPont Pioneer Expands Multi-Crop Research Center in Windfall, IN. The expansion, announced Aug. 16, will better serve local growers and support global breeding and testing programs in wheat, corn and soybeans. For additional information visit http://www. dupont.com. Best Wishes to Travis Jones, past executive director of the Idaho Grain Producers
28 28 Rediscover RediscoverWH WHEEAT AT| |OCTOBER OCTOBER2015 2015
Association, as he joins Congressman Mike Simpson’s staff as State Policy Director.
announcement at http://www. grains.k-state.edu/igp/newsroom/ Watt%20Release.pdf.
WTO Members Elect a New Ag Chair. On Sept. 8, WTO agriculture negotiators elected New Zealand Ambassador Vangelis Vitalis as its new chairperson. Previously he served as his country’s Head of Mission to the European Union and NATO, as well as Ambassador to Sweden. Read the full announcement at https:// www.wto.org/english/news_e/ news15_e/agng_08sep15_e.htm.
New Study on International Wheat Improvement Released. New research conducted by the CGIAR Wheat Research Program from 1994 to 2014 shows that improved wheat varieties developed using CGIAR breeding lines, either in crosspollinations or as direct releases, cover more than 100 million hectares — nearly two-thirds of the area sown to improved wheat worldwide. According to the study, the impacts derive largely from research and development activities conducted by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA). Read the full story at www.cimmyt.org.
“The Truth about Wheat Program” is Now Available Online. Focusing on current questions about wheat nutrition and trends, the program features discussions with a variety of experts in plant science, wheat breeding, dietetics and farming. A project of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission, you can view the program on the Oklahoma Educational Television Authority (OETA) online network. Read the full announcement at http:// oklahomafarmreport.com/ wire/news /2015/09/09662_ TruthAboutWheatOnline 091115_155546.php#. VgWw8NJVhHw and watch the video http://videos.oeta.tv/ video/2365559197/. Kansas State University Welcomes Flour Milling Specialist. Jason Watt recently joined the grain science and industry department and the IGP Institute as the Buhler instructor of milling. A graduate of the KSU milling science and management program, Watt had been with Ardent Mills. Read the full
Registration Open for IGP-KSU Introduction to Flour Milling Course. The IGP Institute will once again host this course giving an overview of U.S. wheat production; the general milling process and major milling equipment; principles of mill flow sheets; milling math (extraction, tempering and blending); flour functionality, flour and dough testing practices and methods. The course will run from Jan. 11 to 15, 2016, and registration closes Dec. 18, 2015. Register and learn more at http://www.igpevents.grains.ksu. edu/Detail.aspx?enc=mXCYN jSVdPByPE4J8dWwZUG6XNQpV rsgbKFj3Z2XzhK/ AospRaSdsgPDQxj+nYg45N WJmkny XQBl3jAmu Vjuew==
Hello Kansas Wheat.
Maltby Market Analysis
“Inching higher, world wheat prices are” said Yoda after reading this:
by Dan Maltby
DJ Egypt Buys 235,000 Tons of Ukrainian, Russian Wheat by Dahlia Kholaif Egypt, the world's top buyer of wheat, chose Ukrainian and Russian offers to purchase 235,000 tons of the grain following a tender on Friday, paying an average of $199.72 a ton, the country's Ministry for Supply Commodities said Sunday… Egypt issued a snap tender Friday, and had to pay about $8/mt or so over their last tender. The world’s cheapest milling quality wheat has risen $11/ton in about a month. $11/ton = $.30/bu, and this chart of Chicago Dec wheat shows Chgo wheat futures are about 40c/bu higher this month.
Prices have entered a “sell zone”, and closes below the lower blue line will bring in selling. IF a wheat producer needed to sell some wheat to pay some bills, this “sell zone” offers a bit of an opportunity. Conversely, funds are short, and a close above the upper blue line will bring in more significant shortcovering. If a wheat producer doesn’t need to sell wheat, because he’s selling some beans, or corn, or milo… knowing that wheat remains in a wide carrying-charge market, he will wait as long as possible. KC and MGEX wheat charts all show roughly the same pattern. I could be wrong, but I feel electronic trading instead of open-outcry trading has contributed to the 3 wheat contracts acting less independently minded than previously. Anyway, the point is still valid: this is a selling opportunity, and selling some bushels to lighten the load right now is better than it was. And for the most part, the Northern Hemisphere’s winter wheat planting season is going pretty well. It’s not a perfect season; it rarely is, but it’s been pretty good. Thus I’d like to re-emphasize taking advantage of this rally for various reasons is a prudent move. Charts and discussions follow, with the goal of giving you useful information to help you with your business. My disclaimer remains the same: these are my sometimes rapidly changing opinions; the markets are quite treacherous; and past performance is no guarantee…dm
Kansas Wheat market update #190 danmaltby.riskmgmt@gmail.com 10/02/15 pg. 1
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We all know wheat is historically cheap. This is a weekly Chgo chart going back 13 years or so. The red line is about $4.21, which is about 80c/bu below Friday’s close. Thus even though wheat is cheap, it could get cheaper. I have written wheat has bottomed, but I admit this week’s action did NOT inspire confidence.
Once wheat breaks through and closes above that downtrend line, this wire will be more fun to read, but in the meantime…while it’s good to be patient, it’s also important to take what the market gives you.
Cash prices didn’t move much this week, maybe stalling out a little. I think the market acts “tired”, thus maybe why I’m advocating laying off some bushels. I’m not really seeing big sell signals, I’m just mainly pointing out wheat has reached a plateau, and whether a guy likes it or not, downside action is a possible outcome. Markets could rally some more, too, and a guy is indeed still getting paid to store wheat, so I’m not talking about selling everything. Just some.
Date 10/02 09/25 09/18 09/11 09/04 Date 10/02 09/25 09/18 09/11 09/04
Dodge $4.41 $4.40 $4.22 $4.22 $4.05 Concordia $4.51 $4.50 $4.32 $4.32 $4.25
Colby $4.43 $4.45 $4.27 $4.23 $4.16 Salina $4.61-$4.66 $4.62-$4.65 $4.44-$4.47 $4.44-$4.47 $4.37-$4.40
Goodland $4.41 $4.41 $4.23 $4.23 $4.07 Hutchinson $4.48-$4.69 $4.47-$4.68 $4.29-$4.50 $4.29-$4.50 $4.22-$4.43
Protection $4.46 $4.45 $4.27 $4.27 $4.15 Wichita $4.58-$4.71 $4.57-$4.70 $4.39-$4.52 $4.39-$4.52 $4.28-$4.45
Scott City $4.34 $4.33 $4.12 $4.12 $4.05 Ark City $4.52 $4.51 $4.33 $4.33 $4.26
Kansas Wheat market update #190 danmaltby.riskmgmt@gmail.com 10/02/15 pg. 2 30
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Sublette $4.41-$4.43 $4.40-$4.42 $4.22-$4.24 $4.22-$4.24 $4.04-$4.15
BASIS 10/02 09/25 09/18 09/11 09/04 Date 10/02 09/25 09/18 09/11 09/04
Dodge -60 -60 -60 -60 -70 Concordia -50 -50 -50 -50 -50
Colby -58 -55 -59 -59 -59 Salina -40, -35 -38, -35 -38, -35 -38, -35 -38, -35
Goodland -60 -59 -59 -59 -68 Hutchinson -53, -22 -53, -22 -53, -22 -53, -22 -53, -22
Protection -55 -55 -55 -55 -60 Wichita -45, -30 -45, -30 -45, -30 -45, -30 -47, -30
Scott City -67 -67 -70 -70 -70 Ark City -49 -49 -49 -49 -49
Sublette -60, -58 -60, -58 -60, -58 -60, -58 -71, -60
Basis bids are mainly steady, although we do see some nominal weakness. The export market is getting a little antsy‌Brazil is being extremely patient, and they do have some alternatives. I think they will be buying USA HRW for late December shipment, although USA or Canadian spring wheat will be tough competition, and they will certainly threaten to take Black Sea wheat. Vessel freight and fobbing capacity will be important factors; thus the equation includes more variables than just futures and basis. We saw several fundamental reports this week, offering mainly fine-tuning. You can see what the markets thought of them‌mainly not much. CLOSE
KWZ15
KWH16
KWN16
CZ15
CN16
CZ16
WZ15
MWZ15
MWN16
SX15
10/02
$5.01
$5.15
$5.35
$3.89
$4.10
$4.10
$5.13
$5.27
$5.58
$8.74
09/25
$5.00
$5.15
$5.34
$3.89
$4.13
$4.11
$5.08
$5.23
$5.56
$8.89
09/18
$4.82
$4.97
$5.16
$3.77
$4.02
$4.02
$4.87
$5.11
$5.46
$8.67
09/11
$4.82
$4.96
$5.16
$3.87
$4.10
$4.10
$4.85
$5.12
$5.47
$8.74
09/04
$4.75
$4.89
$5.08
$3.63
$3.87
$3.88
$4.68
$5.03
$5.41
$8.67
08/28
$4.84
$4.98
$5.18
$3.75
$3.98
$3.99
$4.84
$5.12
$5.51
$8.86
08/21
$4.93
$5.07
$5.27
$3.77
$3.99
$4.00
$5.04
$5.18
$5.56
$8.90
08/14
$5.10
$5.24
$5.44
$3.76
$3.99
$3.99
$5.12
$5.34
$5.68
$9.20
08/07
$5.14
$5.28
$5.47
$3.84
$4.06
$3.99
$5.16
$5.41
$5.82
$9.63
07/31
$5.12
$5.26
$5.44
$3.81
$4.04
$3.95
$5.05
$5.41
$5.80
$9.40
07/24
$5.27
$5.42
$5.58
$4.03
$4.23
$4.09
$5.20
$5.63
$5.96
$9.65
07/17
$5.66
$5.80
$5.95
$4.31
$4.51
$4.29
$5.64
$5.91
$6.20
$10.07
Wheat is flat, waiting. Beans see some harvest pressure, maybe, but also act like the nervous stock market. Kansas Wheat market update #190 danmaltby.riskmgmt@gmail.com 10/02/15 pg. 3
Rediscover WHE AT | OCTOBER 2015 31
NASS published their annual Small Grains summary, and decreased their HRW production ideas slightly. Generally, planted acreage was a little lower, and yields were dropped a bit. PLANTED WINTER WHEAT ACRES (1000 ac) 7/12/2015 9/30/2015 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2015/16 KS 10,000 9,800 10,400 9,600 9,300 8,400 8,800 9,400 9,500 9,600 9,400 9,200 CO 2,550 2,150 2,500 2,150 2,600 2,450 2,300 2,350 2,300 2,750 2,500 2,400 NE 1,850 1,800 2,050 1,750 1,700 1,600 1,520 1,380 1,470 1,550 1,600 1,490 OK 5,700 5,700 5,900 5,600 5,700 5,300 5,100 5,400 5,600 5,300 5,400 5,300 TX 5,500 5,550 6,200 5,800 6,400 5,700 5,300 5,700 6,200 6,000 5,900 6,000 SD 1,550 1,450 2,100 2,050 1,700 1,350 1,650 1,320 1,300 1,210 1,420 1,420 ND 310 200 465 630 580 330 400 750 215 870 250 200 MT 2,150 1,950 2,240 2,600 2,550 2,050 2,250 2,300 2,000 2,500 2,400 2,350 CA 495 450 500 680 615 660 620 610 610 460 430 400 total 30,105 29,050 32,355 30,860 31,145 27,840 27,940 29,210 29,195 30,240 29,300 28,760 HARVESTED WINTER WHEAT ACRES (1000 ac) 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2015/16 KS 9,500 9,100 8,600 8,900 8,800 8,000 7,900 9,000 8,450 8,800 8,800 8,700 CO 2,200 1,900 2,350 1,900 2,450 2,350 2,000 2,170 1,630 2,350 2,250 2,140 NE 1,760 1,700 1,960 1,670 1,600 1,490 1,450 1,300 1,140 1,450 1,300 1,210 OK 4,000 3,400 3,500 4,500 3,500 3,900 3,200 4,300 3,400 2,800 3,700 3,800 TX 3,000 1,400 3,800 3,300 2,450 3,750 1,900 3,000 2,350 2,250 3,600 3,550 SD 1,490 1,150 1,980 1,890 1,530 1,300 1,590 1,210 670 1,080 960 970 ND 285 180 445 550 545 320 375 730 200 555 235 190 MT 2,100 1,920 2,190 2,420 2,420 1,950 2,190 2,170 1,900 2,240 2,300 2,220 CA 300 250 240 400 330 360 420 310 345 180 190 150 total 24,635 21,000 25,065 25,530 23,625 23,420 21,025 24,190 20,085 21,705 23,335 22,930 HARVESTED WINTER WHEAT ACRES/PLANTED ACRES (1000 ac) 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2015/16 KS 95.0% 92.9% 82.7% 92.7% 94.6% 95.2% 89.8% 95.7% 88.9% 91.7% 93.6% 94.6% CO 86.3% 88.4% 94.0% 88.4% 94.2% 95.9% 87.0% 92.3% 70.9% 85.5% 90.0% 89.2% NE 95.1% 94.4% 95.6% 95.4% 94.1% 93.1% 95.4% 94.2% 77.6% 93.5% 81.3% 81.2% OK 70.2% 59.6% 59.3% 80.4% 61.4% 73.6% 62.7% 79.6% 60.7% 52.8% 68.5% 71.7% TX 54.5% 25.2% 61.3% 56.9% 38.3% 65.8% 35.8% 52.6% 37.9% 37.5% 61.0% 59.2% SD 96.1% 79.3% 94.3% 92.2% 90.0% 96.3% 96.4% 91.7% 51.5% 89.3% 67.6% 68.3% ND 91.9% 90.0% 95.7% 87.3% 94.0% 97.0% 93.8% 97.3% 93.0% 63.8% 94.0% 95.0% MT 97.7% 98.5% 97.8% 93.1% 94.9% 95.1% 97.3% 94.3% 95.0% 89.6% 95.8% 94.5% CA 60.6% 55.6% 48.0% 58.8% 53.7% 54.5% 67.7% 50.8% 56.6% 39.1% 44.2% 37.5% total 81.8% 72.3% 77.5% 82.7% 75.9% 84.1% 75.3% 82.8% 68.8% 71.8% 79.6% 79.7% YIELD (bu/ac) KS CO NE OK TX SD ND MT CA total PRODUCTION KS CO NE OK TX SD ND MT CA total USA HRW % of USA HRW
yield 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2015/16 40.0 32.0 33.0 40.0 42.0 45.0 35.0 42.0 38.0 28.0 38.0 37.0 24.0 21.0 40.0 30.0 40.0 45.0 39.0 34.0 25.0 38.0 39.0 37.0 39.0 36.0 43.0 44.0 48.0 43.0 45.0 41.0 35.0 49.0 42.0 38.0 32.0 24.0 28.0 37.0 22.0 31.0 22.0 36.0 31.0 17.0 26.0 26.0 32.0 24.0 37.0 30.0 25.0 34.0 26.0 32.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 30.0 44.0 36.0 48.0 55.0 42.0 49.0 42.0 50.0 39.0 55.0 41.0 44.0 39.0 44.0 50.0 41.0 48.0 55.0 37.0 55.0 43.0 49.0 51.0 44.0 45.0 43.0 38.0 39.0 37.0 48.0 41.0 39.0 43.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 72.0 58.0 80.0 85.0 80.0 80.0 85.0 85.0 80.0 80.0 65.0 70.0 37.74 32.48 38.36 40.55 38.94 43.47 37.10 41.34 37.21 43.0 41.6 40.8 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2015/16 380.0 291.2 283.8 356.0 369.6 360.0 276.5 378.0 321.1 246.4 334.4 321.9 52.8 39.9 94.0 57.0 98.0 105.8 78.0 73.8 40.8 89.3 87.8 79.2 68.6 61.2 84.3 73.5 76.8 64.1 65.3 53.3 39.9 71.1 54.6 46.0 128.0 81.6 98.0 166.5 77.0 120.9 70.4 154.8 105.4 47.6 96.2 98.8 96.0 33.6 140.6 99.0 61.3 127.5 49.4 96.0 68.2 67.5 111.6 106.5 65.6 41.4 95.0 104.0 64.3 63.7 66.8 60.5 26.1 59.4 39.4 42.7 11.1 7.9 22.3 22.6 26.2 17.6 13.9 40.2 8.6 27.2 12.0 8.4 94.5 82.6 83.2 94.4 89.5 93.6 89.8 84.6 81.7 91.8 94.3 91.0 21.6 14.5 19.2 34.0 26.4 28.8 35.7 26.4 27.6 14.4 12.4 10.5 918.2 653.9 920.4 1006.9 889.0 981.9 745.7 967.5 719.3 714.7 842.5 804.9 929.8 682.079 961.588 1035.235 919.939 1018 780 1000 747.4 737.9 866.4 826.9 98.8% 95.9% 95.7% 97.3% 96.6% 96.5% 95.6% 96.8% 96.2% 96.8% 97.2% 97.3%
Kansas’s statewide final average yield was 37 bushels, and so was Colorado’s. Corn and beans stocks-in-all-positions as of September 1 will be the final ending stocks for crop marketing year 2014/15 feed grains and soybeans. And we will see them incorporated in the October WASDE updates, which will be issued this coming Friday, October 9. And my opinion is…this October WASDE will be a snoozer. Incoming, current and continual yield reports do NOT seem to be surprising.
Kansas Wheat market update #190 danmaltby.riskmgmt@gmail.com 10/02/15 pg. 4 32
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Demand clues are not wildly worse, or better either. Thus I don’t think these reports are going to really move Dec 15 corn:
Nor move Nov 15 beans:
Gravity could move these charts more than the USDA reports coming Friday…or world events…or the stock market, or blah, blah, blah. I could be wrong. Maybe the reports will be crazy. But I doubt it.
How about finishing winter wheat planting weather in the States? Here’s a USA weather map. Looks dry to me. The market would breathe easier with a wet November. The Australian map is very dry as well, and their winter wheat is about 60 days away from harvest. We know how important late April, early May rains are over here… Kansas Wheat market update #190 danmaltby.riskmgmt@gmail.com 10/02/15 pg. 5
Rediscover WHE AT | OCTOBER 2015 33
Kansas Wheat market update #190 danmaltby.riskmgmt@gmail.com 10/02/15 pg. 6 34
Rediscover WHE AT | OCTOBER 2015
Will finish up with a KC Z chart. I’ve mentioned I’d be trying to get some wheat on the books, especially if I had to raise some cash. A few weeks ago I wrote the $5.25 area would be a good spot, and this chart shows why $5.25 to $5.30 will offer tough resistance.
If you are still storing wheat, selling July futures instead of Dec is a good plan, and I like moving short hedges out to the KC Sept 16, at a 14c carry. We haven’t looked at it much this year, but KC wheat vs corn is TRYING to make a move higher, I think…maybe… Funds are short wheat, and long corn, and a guy should keep that in mind. So far, this chart is not making those funds nervous with that particular spread.
Move some wheat if you need the cash. If not, maybe lock in deferred prices with KC Sept. WASDE comes out Friday.
Maltby Market Analysis is provided weekly to members of the Kansas Association of Wheat Growers via email. To become a KAWG member and subscribe, please contact Jordan Hildebrand at jhildebrand@ kswheat.com. Kansas Wheat market update #190 danmaltby.riskmgmt@gmail.com 10/02/15 pg. 7
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Upcoming Events SEPTEMBER 2015 • USW/NAWG Fall 2015 Board Meeting, November 3-6 • I/UCRC NSF Meeting, November 10-11
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