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CAMPAIGNING UNDER CORONAVIRUS

written by Rebecca Visser

Life in America has been upended by Covid-19. Politics has been too. The pandemic has centred this year’s presidential campaign around coronavirus response, putting Trump on the defensive and shifting the narrative dramatically. For some, this created a pressing example of Trump as an unfit leader, playing perfectly into Biden’s argument. The public health emergency further highlights the need for better healthcare – a theme the 2018 House victory already showed was a winning issue for Democrats. However, wild optimism should be tempered; the realities of running make the sunny electoral picture painted significantly more complex. Joe Biden has commendably made strategy decisions in the interest of public health and sees coronavirus as the winning issue, but what it means to be campaigning under coronavirus may yet cost him victory. Practically, field operations and in-person campaigning have been massively disrupted: blockbuster rallies have become a health hazard, and even smaller in-person campaigning or door-knocking carry the risk of transmission. The Biden campaign has taken this into account, with the candidate himself staying in lockdown in spring and making just two trips to battleground states in the whole of July and August. For Democratic advocates, this conveyed Biden’s commitment to trusting the scientific community and fully understanding the risks of the Covid-19 pandemic. September has seen Biden and recently-nominated running mate Senator Harris ramp up their schedules. Yet, in-person events are still limited. For instance, even when visiting Kenosha in the wake of unrest after a police shooting, the Biden campaign did not advertise the location of his appearance, deliberately preventing crowds from gathering in large numbers. Rather, using funds from record fundraising - including over $310 million in August - the Democratic presidential campaign has focused on virtual events and massive advertising spending especially on TV, including $65 million in battleground states in one September week alone. Most unprecedentedly, rather than run a door-knocking operation, the campaign has chosen to text and call voters in ‘virtual’ door-knocking. Democratic campaign manager O’Malley Dillon argued this is more efficient, and that in August the campaign had had 2.6 million conversations with voters in battleground states. Trump has mostly taken the opposite tactic in brazenly skirting regulations designed to protect Americans against Covid-19, such as by holding a ‘round table’ in September that was a rally in all but name. Such events see little social distancing and even fewer face masks. Although currently being outspent overall in

battleground states, the Trump campaign has main- Secondly, it is unclear whether coronavirus-adapted tained they are pursuing a better strategy with heavy field operations can drive turnout to the same extent online advertising and substantial field spending: as of as traditional methods. Democrats have heavily promid-September, a campaign spokesman claimed it had moted mail-in ballots as they can be completed from 2 million volunteers across 17 states and had knocked home, avoiding the spread of the virus at in-person on over 3.3 million doors in competitive states. polling stations. August analysis showed that DemoThis is potentially problematic because Biden’s cau- cratic voters are far more likely to vote-by-mail, with tious approach cedes the limelight to Trump. The Pres- only 11% of Trump backers suggesting they planned ident has bombastically used the bully pulpit his posi- to do so. The problem is that although safer from a tion affords to host daily coronavirus briefings in the public health perspective, there is a much higher risk spring and continues to make controversial comments of absentee ballots being rejected, especially those of that divert an entire news cycle. first-time mail-in voters who are more susceptible to Arguably, Trump is sabotaging himself and strengthen- making mistakes because they are unfamiliar with the ing Biden’s pitch by presenting the Vice President in so- process; indeed, roughly 500,000 mail-in ballots were ber contrast. The intense partisanship surrounding this rejected in the presidential primaries. As this election election and popular name recognition for both also will see unprecedented levels of inexperienced users might suggest voters’ views on the two are entrenched, of this system and neck-in-neck races in states from meaning that Biden doesn’t need to compete with Arizona to Florida, the possibility of disqualified balTrump for the spotlight to further define himself. How- lots for Biden should be highly concerning. Moreover, ever, his strategy contributes to a political commentators are sharply less direct connection with voters. “Trump is sab- divided over whether communiBiden’s empathy helps him connect deeply with individual voters but otaging himself cating to voters over calls can create the same level of commitment with a more limited presence on the campaign trail, opportunities for and strengthening as in-person conversations; Bernie Sanders himself stated ‘I think that retail politics are limited. In this, his Biden’s pitch” is something that virtual relationcampaign is arguably negating one ships cannot replace’. Turning out of its own greatest strengths. Simi- voters will be essential to this eleclarly, personal appearances by can- tion, especially if opinions of the didates are a major source of ‘free media’; by not sched- candidates are solidified for the majority of Americans, uling these, his campaign is not receiving this typical as the exceptionally stable Trump approval/disapprovboost. It is further unclear how far online events— al ratings suggest. Therefore, the question of whether used to replace in-person visits—engage voters. One the Democratic strategy can sufficiently secure voters, Democratic county chair in Pennsylvania believes live in comparison to the tried-and-true Trump door-knockstreaming events do not reach all and that “it feels like ing campaign, should add another element of doubt to asymmetric warfare” compared to the immediacy of the massively optimistic forecasts. the Trump campaign. Coupled with limited in-person These warnings may well be too pessimistic, especialfield operations, Democratic operatives from Michigan ly given Biden’s advantageous position in the polls; to Pennsylvania to Florida have raised the alarm about because of favourable Electoral College realities and not feeling enough of a Biden presence. Crucially, this very strong battleground state polling data, respected may generate the feeling of neglect among Rust Belt political statistician Nate Silver gave Biden a 77 in 100 States that Trump took advantage of in 2016. More- chance of winning in mid-September. Nonetheless, it over, while mistakes in 2016 polling practise have been must be noted that there is an underlying bet in Biden’s corrected—in the previous race, Michigan’s electoral campaign strategy, and this carries risks: Democrats are swing was a surprise partially because the last public relying on his loftier campaign message and organising polling there was conducted in September—the 2016 practise convincing the public in the face of traditional phenomenon of ‘silent’ Trump voters who are not rep- political operations and Trump’s barnstorming appeal. resented in polling data is likely to repeat itself. This The outcome of the November election will not only means the Biden campaign’s virtual strategy may be determine the future leadership of the United States— giving them an incomplete picture of their likely sup- and the western world—but also what successful politport. ical campaigns will look like in the future.

by Amalia Hajieva