Leadership

A Nation Betrayed: What Bolsonaro’s Response to Covid-19 Means for the Future of Brazil’s Leadership

written by Tommy O’Donnell

Photo: Marcos Correa, Palacio Planalto, dpa, 2020.

The United Kingdom’s government in the times of Covid-19 has been highly criticised for its response to the pandemic. A nation with one of the world’s best healthcare infrastructures having the third-highest coronavirus death count has indelibly undermined the current Conservative government’s reputation. However, if we look to even harder hit countries, we see one nation in particular with a leadership that has not managed to stand the test: Jair Bolsonaro’s Brasil.

Many political commentators and academics have speculated as to why Bolsonaro, the far-right political outsider, was elected in the first place. Only two years away from the next Brazilian presidential election, this de facto referendum is at the forefront of keen political Brazilian minds. The coronavirus pandemic, however, has entirely shifted the narrative around the controversial president; when looking at Bolsonaro’s approval ratings at the beginning of the pandemic compared to now, it’s like shooting down a rollercoaster with an extremely sharp decline. On March 16th, a poll conducted by Brazilian polling firms XP and Ipespe showed that only 18% of citizens perceived Bolsonaro’s handling of Covid-19 as ‘bad’ or ‘terrible’. Compare that to June 9th, the latest poll of the same nature, that figure now lies at 55%. The president’s complete disregard of the virus and his refusal to act has angered Brazilians to the point where a majority of voters now believe his handling of this crisis is unacceptable. The present-day outrage is obvious, but how, or if at all, this will affect the election in two years time is still to be seen. Before we question the future of Brazil’s leadership, it is crucial to understand how Bolsonaro landed himself in the position he is in now. A combination of economic recession, the biggest party finance corruption scandal in modern history, presidential impeachment and a wave of military rule-era nostalgia made way for a Bolsonaro-shaped political storm to sweep into Brasilia. Brazil fell victim to the classic anti-establishment rhetoric that has been seen building all over the world for the last five to ten years; the same rhetoric that has been adopted by leaders who now govern the countries with the highest death counts.

First, we ought to consider how long the ‘Corona effect’, encompassing both the virus, the surrounding tragedy and the political debris it leaves in its wake, will last. It is difficult to predict how the world will look in two years, but in the case of Brazil, it may not look any different to how it does now. As of August 6th 2020,

there are a confirmed 2.9 million cases in the country and almost 100,000 deaths from Covid-19. Whilst many Asian and European countries live in fear of a second spike, Brazil lives in fear that it will not make it past the first spike any time soon. Based on the current trends, it seems that Brazil’s fight with coronavirus will continue into 2021, and possibly even 2022, suggesting that the Brazilian leader’s handling of the crisis could be at the forefront of voters’ minds come election season. When evaluating Bolsonaro’s current political standing, it is important to identify the two sides of his base; the rich and the poor. Evidence found in the last few months shows that the President’s support is dwindling amongst his richer and highly educated supporters from 2018. Additionally, his leadership has been repeatedly undermined by the nation’s Congress which passed a Universal Basic Income bill in opposition to the government’s plan - a plan which unified the opposition parties. Within the government itself, Bolsonaro has opened fire against his own ministers, making it safe to say that the leader’s image is currently at an all-time low. The pandemic’s destrucing Covid-19. This is where one expects the government to interfere and make life liveable for its citizens. How-

ever, in the case of Bolsonaro’s leadership, Brazilians were not afforded this ‘luxury’. As a result, the cliché of working-class people being more likely to support right-wing populist candidates, like Trump, Bolsonaro and Johnson, could no longer be viable. When the person elected to restore faith in the working class is the very man depriving them of life’s necessities, the mirage of the ‘champion for the working class’ no longer holds. Right now the future is not looking bright for Jair Bolsonaro. Nonetheless, predicting the future of modern-day political events two years away is practically impossible. There is still a sizable possibility that Bolsonaro is re-elected to a second term in office, but how can he recover from this Covid-sized faux pas? Well, he has already started. After realising the error of his ways, the federal government is now offering low-paid workers a monthly ration of 600 reais, which is roughly equivalent to £82. The effect of this decision is evident in the president’s recent approval rating, which shows his greatest gains in the poorer and more vulnerable parts of Brazil, with a general pos-

tion of everyday life has affected almost everyone Photo: A. Coelho, Getty Images, 2020. The perfect storm of inaction, the unification in one way or another and the effects are multiplied in of the opposition and his refusal to help the most a region characterized by some of the most unequal so- vulnerable, could suggest that Bolsonaro has a very cial relations in the world. Many working-class or impov- slim chance of retaining the presidential sash come erished families in Latin America rely on informal jobs 1st January 2023. And yet, to consider the pandemic to earn a living, and the effects of full-scale lockdowns as the only factor in this choice would be naïve. The meant that many were in a much worse financial posi- political trauma inflicted upon Brazilians over the tion than before the pandemic. For example, families that last decade is not easily could not rely on a steady income instead relied on infor- forgotten. They have not forgotten Lula or Dilma or mal work, including cleaning, taxi-driving and babysit- Petrobras or Lava Jato; the very reasons for Bolsonting, just to name a few. Due to the nature of a contagious aro holding the office he currently does. The quesvirulent disease, these cash-in-hand, quick-pay jobs were tion is whether the devastating effects of a global no longer safe or feasible.Therefore, a nearly impossible pandemic, made even more devastating by an inchoice presents itself between having a shortage of in- effective government, are enough to temporarily come, and thus essential goods, or to be at risk of catch- erase the memory of a nation betrayed. itive swing for Bolsonaro.