Glen Ellyn Real Estate Guide (Q3 2023)

Page 1

Q3 2023

GLEN ELLYN

LOCAL REAL ESTATE GUIDE


METHODOLOGY Overview of Terms and Glen Ellyn Submarkets CLOSED: closed transaction reflecting the final sales price (does not include any seller credits) CONTRACTED: contingent or pending transaction reflecting the latest asking price CONTRACT TIME: number of days between the first list date and the contracted date (does not include time from contract to close) HOME INVENTORY: number of homes currently available for sale MEDIAN: middle value of a given dataset (all report values are medians, which are less impacted by outliers than averages) PRICE DISCOUNTS: percentage difference between the initial list and recorded sale price

NORTHEAST NORTHWEST (West of Main St. / North of Pennsylvania Ave. to St. Charles Rd.)

CENTRAL WEST (West of Park Blvd. / South of Pennsylvania Ave. to Roosevelt Rd.)

(East of Main St. / North of Crescent Blvd. to St. Charles Rd. )

CENTRAL EAST (East of Park Blvd. / South of Crescent Blvd. to Roosevelt Rd.

SOUTH (South of Roosevelt Rd.)

PRICE PER SQ. FT: ratio of the median price to the median sq. footage of a closed transaction as a relative price measure Note: All figures represent detached single-family homes unless otherwise specified. Price range data based on the village of Glen Ellyn. Submarket figures based on the approximate areas identified on map above and do not include every home within village limits.

2


MARKET SUMMARY “Seller’s Market” Continues into the Fall with Very Low Home Inventory

Closed Homes (Q3)

Lower Activity

New Home Listings (Q3)

21%

Contracted Homes (Q3)

Fewer Available Homes

Home Inventory (September)

42%

“Seller’s market” with 15+ year low of available homes this time of year

Short Market Times

List to Contract Days (Q3)

Mostly a week or less across price ranges and submarkets, except Northeast (only a few sales)

Limited Price Discounts

Sale Price Discounts (Q3)

Majority of homes across price ranges and submarkets selling at or above asking price

Record Sale Prices

Sale Price / Price Per Sq. Ft. (Q3)

Relative prices setting new records, but some variability in price ranges and submarkets

15%

29%

3


NEW LISTINGS By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 New listings were down over 20% in Q3; split market with homes below $600K down meaningfully and above $600K increasing

<$400K $600K – $799K

 Overall listing activity now back to 2013 levels or lower; homes priced below $400K are down dramatically with rising values

500

 Low listing activity likely to continue as market enters slower seasonal period

400

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%)

300

'23

'22

%

<$400K

22

48

-54%

$400K - $599K

34

50

-32%

$600K - $799K

27

25

8%

$800K+

34

25

36%

200

162 (-25%) 108 (-1%) 107 (-30%) 93 (-11%)

100

0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Price Range

$400K – $599K $800K+

4


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Q3 experienced mixed new listing activity with the Northwest and South dragging the rest of the market lower

Northwest Central East

 Large increase in Central West area during the quarter moved this submarket positive over the last 12 months

300

 South area declined dramatically with less than 5 total new listings in Q3

250

Northeast South

Central West

200

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%)

150 '23

'22

%

Northwest

13

31

-58%

Northeast

10

6

67%

Central West

27

18

50%

Central East

31

28

11%

South

3

21

-86%

105 (+9%) 86 (-20%) 84(-13%)

100 50 0

30 (-21%) 27 (-67%) '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Submarket

5


CONTRACTED HOMES By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Contracted homes declined 15% for the quarter; homes priced under $400K created all the decline

<$400K $600K – $799K

 Each month during the quarter was lower, but especially July and September  Contracts likely to decline based on fewer new listings and low inventory

$400K – $599K $800K+

300 250 200

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%)

150 '23

'22

%

<$400K

16

36

-56%

$400K - $599K

26

26

0%

$600K - $799K

21

17

24%

$800K+

15

13

15%

100

89 (-27%) 70 (-4%) 60 (-26%)

50 0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Price Range

137 (-9%)

6


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Glen Ellyn submarkets were lower for Q3, except Central West (up significantly)

Northwest Central East

 Extremely soft contract quarter for the South driving the largest area declines over the last 12 months  Northeast submarket has the lowest level of contract activity generally (also the smallest map area analyzed)

Northeast South

Central West

200

150

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%) 100 '23

'22

%

Northwest

6

14

-57%

Northeast

3

4

-25%

Central West

23

7

229%

Central East

19

25

-24%

South

1

15

-93%

83 (+17%) 64 (-25%) 50 (-17%)

50

24 (-58%) 16 (-47%) 0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Submarket

7


CLOSED HOMES By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Closed homes decreased nearly 30% in Q3 primarily driven by homes under $600K (although all price ranges declined)

<$400K $600K – $799K

 Declines grew larger as the quarter moved forward with both August and September down over 35%

300

 Closing activity following overall declines in contracts with low home availability

250

$400K – $599K $800K+

200

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%)

150 '23

'22

%

<$400K

19

37

-49%

$400K - $599K

26

39

-33%

$600K - $799K

15

18

-17%

$800K+

25

26

-4%

100

97 (-22%) 65 (-31%) 59 (-19%)

50 0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Price Range

131 (-24%)

8


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Glen Ellyn submarkets mostly lower for Q3, except Central West (up 50%)

Northwest Central East

 Central West saw more listings and a dramatic increase in contracts leading to a jump in closings for the quarter  South reached historic lows over the last 12 months after another very soft quarter

Northeast South

Central West

200

150

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%) 100 79 (-2%) '23

'22

%

Northwest

13

17

-24%

Northeast

6

10

-40%

Central West

27

18

50%

Central East

16

22

-27%

South

4

18

-78%

67 (-20%) 55 (-19%)

50

27 (-56%) 15 (-53%) 0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Submarket

9


HOME INVENTORY By Price Range

Sept. Quarter End (YoY%)

 Available homes declined over 40% in Q3 from levels that were already historically low

<$400K $600K – $799K

 Homes priced over $800K currently represent 50%+ of all inventory with this price range increasing and others falling  Scarce inventory expected to continue driving “seller’s market” conditions

Sept. Trends (Relative%)

$400K – $599K $800K+

175 150 125 100

23%

32%

20%

24% 16%

24%

12% 28%

27% 12% 35%

37%

33%

28%

27%

23%

'19 '20 <$400K $600K – $799K

'21

75% 50% 25% 0%

75 53%

50 14% 22% 11%

'22 '23 $400K – $599K $800K+

25 0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

100%

19 (+27%) 8 (-65%) 5 (-50%) 4 (-71%) 10


By Submarket

Sept. Quarter End (YoY%)

 Home inventory is down meaningfully, despite the recent increase in the Northeast (only two more homes)

Northwest Central East

 Extremely limited home availability in all areas (10 homes or less in all submarkets)  Relative mix of inventory shifted some to Northeast and Central West given larger declines in other areas

Northeast South

Central West

80

60

Sept. Trends (Relative%) 40 15%

75%

31%

50%

18% 11% 26%

25% 0%

'19 Northwest Central East

6% 29%

23% 24%

34% 11% 20%

26% 11% 16%

'20 '21 Northeast South

11% 20%

7% 24%

32% 7% 30%

28%

'22

17% 24%

'23 Central West

20

0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

100%

8 (-43%) 7 (-46%) 7 (-22%) 5 (+67%) 2 (-60%) 11


CONTRACT TIME By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Days between listing date and contract signing have been low (mostly less than two weeks) for a couple years

<$400K $600K – $799K

 Homes mostly sold faster in Q3, except those priced under $400K (only two days longer)  Expect contract times to remain short with very limited home availability

$400K – $599K $800K+

175 150 125

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%)

100

'23

'22

%

<$400K

11

9

22%

50

$400K - $599K

4

9

-56%

25

$600K - $799K

4

6

-33%

$800K+

4

6

-33%

0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

75

Price Range

11 (+22%) 5 (-29%) 5 (-17%) 5 (-29%) 12


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Contract times were fast during the quarter with fewer closings

Northwest Central East

 Northeast days extended, but there were only six closings in Q3 (too small of a data set to draw conclusions)

100

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%)

75

'22

%

Northwest

4

11

-64%

Northeast

15

5

200%

Central West

5

14

-64%

Central East

4

10

-60%

South

8

10

-20%

50

25

0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

'23

Central West

125

 Homes on the market for more than two weeks could be overpriced or have other factors impacting time / interest

Submarket

Northeast South

11 (+120%) 7 (+17%) 7 (-36%) 5 (-29%) 4 (-60%) 13


PRICE DISCOUNTS By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Price discounts were limited in the quarter with most homes selling at asking price or a slight premium  Homes under $400K saw prior discounts disappear in Q3, but this range still had some negotiability in the last 12 months

<$400K $600K – $799K

$400K – $599K $800K+ 100% (0%) 100% (0%) 100% (0%) 98% (+1%)

100%

 Price discounts expected to remain narrow given limited home inventory 95%

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%) 90% '23

'22

%

<$400K

100%

97%

3%

$400K - $599K

100%

99%

1%

$600K - $799K

101%

101%

0%

$800K+

101%

102%

-1%

85%

80%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Price Range

14


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Glen Ellyn submarkets mostly experienced full asking price or more for closed sales in Q3, except the Northeast

Northwest Central East

 Northeast area had longer market times and only a few closings (noted earlier)  Despite some negotiability in early 2023, there have been very limited (if any) discounts since

Northeast South

Central West 100% (0%) 100% (+1%) 99% (-1%) 99% (-2%) 98% (-1%)

100%

95%

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%) 90% '23

'22

%

Northwest

100%

100%

0%

Northeast

96%

102%

-5%

Central West

100%

101%

-1%

Central East

102%

99%

3%

South

103%

98%

5%

85%

80%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Submarket

15


PRICE PER SQ. FT. By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Price per sq. ft. moved higher in the quarter driven by strong increases for homes priced in the $400K – $600K range

<$400K $600K – $799K

 Relative prices set new records for $400K – $800K over the last 12 months ($800K+ also near record levels)

$325

 While price growth varied, the overall pricing environment remains strong

$275

$400K – $599K $800K+ $312 (+4%) $282 (+14%) $255 (+4%)

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%)

$225 $209 (-4%)

'23

'22

%

<$400K

$215

$203

6%

$400K - $599K

$283

$253

12%

$600K - $799K

$278

$265

5%

$800K+

$307

$313

-2%

$175

$125

$75

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Price Range

16


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Most submarkets were up for the quarter, except the Northeast and South

Northwest Central East

 Northeast declined despite higher overall closed sale prices (driven by home size mix); again, this represents only few closings  South has the only decrease in relative prices over the last 12 months

Northeast South

Central West

$350 $333 (+21%) $307 (+8%) $289 (+5%) $267 (+1%)

$300

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%)

$250

'23

'22

%

Northwest

$276

$264

5%

Northeast

$290

$313

-7%

Central West

$322

$295

9%

Central East

$319

$288

11%

South

$210

$233

-10%

$150

$100

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Submarket

$215 (-4%)

$200

17


CLOSED SALE PRICES By Submarket  Overall sale prices were mostly higher for Q3, except the South

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%) Northwest Central East

 Central East and South are the only submarkets higher over the last 12 months (even after the South decline this quarter)  While overall sale prices increased, home mix influences values (see price per sq. ft.)

Northeast South

Central West

$950 K $850 K $750 K

$762K (-13%) $690K (+14%)

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%)

$650 K $550 K

$551 K (-5%) $530 K (-3%) $454K (+6%)

Submarket

'23

'22

%

Northwest

$785K

$572K

37%

$450 K

Northeast

$893K

$855K

4%

$350 K

Central West

$575K

$540K

6%

Central East

$716K

$668K

7%

South

$412K

$443K

-7%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

$250 K

18


CLOSED SALE VOLUME By Submarket  Overall closed sale volume for Glen Ellyn was down nearly 20% for the quarter and now almost 25% lower over the last 12 months

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%) Northwest

Northeast

Central East

South

 Central West was the only submarket that increased overall sales volume in Q3 (jump in closings and higher closed sale prices)

$125M

 Central submarkets remain the largest sale volume areas in Glen Ellyn

$100M

Jul. – Sept. (YoY%)

$75M

'23

'22

%

Northwest

$9M

$10M

-3%

Northeast

$6M

$9M

-28%

Central West

$18M

$13M

45%

Central East

$13M

$15M

-17%

South

$2M

$9M

-78%

$50M

$52 M (-12%) $48 M (-9%) $34 M (-20%)

$25M $15 M (-49%) $13 M (-55%) $0M

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Submarket

Central West

19


COMPARING HOME TYPES Analyzing Glen Ellyn Home Types for Q3 2023

Home Type

Single Family

Town Houses

Condos

New Listings

117

21%

11

22%

34

17%

Contracted Homes

78

15%

9

50%

22

21%

Closed Homes

85

29%

6

14%

23

36%

Home Inventory

36

42%

1

50%

12

33%

Contract Time

4 days

43%

6 days

0%

8 days

0%

Price Discounts

100%

0%

100%

3%

100%

1%

Price per Sq. Ft.

$281

10%

$207

23%

$181

18%

Closed Sale Price

$550K

16%

$391K

19%

$215K

27% 20


COMPARING SUBURBS Analyzing Western Suburb Markets Suburb

Median Price

Q3 YoY%

Price / Sq. Ft.

Q3 YoY% Contract Days Q3 YoY%

Clarendon Hills

$750K

16%

$318

25%

10

-17%

Downers Grove

$513K

12%

$252

5%

7

17%

Elmhurst

$511K

-16%

$299

2%

7

-36%

Glen Ellyn

$550K

16%

$281

10%

4

-43%

Hinsdale

$1.4M

25%

$327

2%

11

10%

Lisle

$461K

5%

$226

11%

7

-30%

Lombard

$364K

4%

$236

9%

5

-29%

Western Springs

$803K

20%

$304

-2%

8

33%

Westmont

$385K

2%

$221

7%

8

60%

Wheaton

$500K

6%

$241

4%

5

-38% 21


www.kellystetlerrealestate.com

Compass is a licensed real estate broker and abides by federal, state and local equal housing opportunity laws. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only, is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, and changes without notice. Sources include Midwest Real Estate Data LLC. This is not intended to solicit property already listed. #1 Compass team in DuPage County based on MRED BrokerMetrics for closed transaction volume dates 1/1/23 – 9/30/23 across all residential property types.

Glen Ellyn Office 479 N Main St, Suite 230 Glen Ellyn, IL 60137


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