Glen Ellyn Real Estate Guide (Q4 2023)

Page 1

Q4 2023

GLEN ELLYN

LOCAL REAL ESTATE GUIDE


METHODOLOGY Overview of Terms and Glen Ellyn Submarkets CLOSED: closed transaction reflecting the final sales price (does not include any seller credits) CONTRACTED: contingent or pending transaction reflecting the latest asking price CONTRACT TIME: number of days between the first list date and the contracted date (does not include time from contract to close) HOME INVENTORY: number of homes currently available for sale MEDIAN: middle value of a given dataset (all report values are medians, which are less impacted by outliers than averages) PRICE DISCOUNTS: percentage difference between the initial list and recorded sale price

NORTHEAST NORTHWEST (West of Main St. / North of Pennsylvania Ave. to St. Charles Rd.)

CENTRAL WEST (West of Park Blvd. / South of Pennsylvania Ave. to Roosevelt Rd.)

(East of Main St. / North of Crescent Blvd. to St. Charles Rd. )

CENTRAL EAST (East of Park Blvd. / South of Crescent Blvd. to Roosevelt Rd.

SOUTH (South of Roosevelt Rd.)

PRICE PER SQ. FT: ratio of the median price to the median sq. footage of a closed transaction as a relative price measure Note: All figures represent detached single-family homes unless otherwise specified. Price range data based on the village of Glen Ellyn. Submarket figures based on the approximate areas identified on map above and do not include every home within village limits.

2


MARKET SUMMARY “Seller’s Market” Continues into the New Year with Very Low Home Inventory

Closed Homes (Q4)

Mixed Activity

New Home Listings (Q4)

29%

Contracted Homes (Q4)

Fewer Available Homes

Home Inventory (December)

57%

“Seller’s market” with 15+ year low of available homes this time of year

Short Market Times

List to Contract Days (Q4)

Mostly two weeks or less across price ranges and submarkets; Northwest was longer

Limited Price Discounts

Sale Price Discounts (Q4)

Majority of homes selling at 3% or less discount to ask; certain areas have more variability

Strong Sale Prices

Sale Price / Price Per Sq. Ft. (Q4)

Relative prices coming off late summer / early fall records; relatively flat in Q4 from last year

14%

10%

3


NEW LISTINGS By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 New listings were down nearly 30% in Q4; only homes $800K+ increased and this price range remains up over the last 12 months

<$400K $600K – $799K

 Each month was softer as the quarter continued with December declining 40%+  Listing activity likely to pick up with seasonal trends, but remain low near-term

$400K – $599K $800K+

500

400

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%)

300

'23

'22

%

<$400K

15

25

-40%

$400K - $599K

27

37

-27%

$600K - $799K

10

19

-47%

$800K+

14

12

17%

200 152 (-29%) 113 (+5%) 97 (-32%) 85 (-22%)

100

0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Price Range

4


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Q4 experienced mixed new listing activity, but mostly lower; Northeast and Central East had a few more listings

Northwest Central East

 All submarkets at or near historical lows for new listing activity  South area continued to decline with only 5 new listings in Q4 (down 70% over the last 12 months)

Northeast South

Central West

300 250 200

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%)

150 '23

'22

%

Northwest

8

20

-60%

Northeast

6

4

50%

Central West

11

23

-52%

Central East

15

14

7%

South

5

8

-38%

93 (-10%) 89 (-10%) 73 (-32%)

100 50 0

32 (+3%) 24 (-70%) '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Submarket

5


CONTRACTED HOMES By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Contracted homes declined nearly 15% for the quarter; homes priced over $800K were up (consistent with new listings)

<$400K $600K – $799K

 Contracts were flat in October, down meaningfully in November (30%) and lower in December (10%+)

300

 Contracts will be limited until new listings begin to show increases

250

$400K – $599K $800K+

200

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%)

150 '23

'22

%

<$400K

11

14

-21%

$400K - $599K

19

29

-34%

$600K - $799K

9

10

-10%

$800K+

15

10

50%

128 (-10%) 100

86 (-17%) 70 (-4%) 68 (-14%)

50 0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Price Range

6


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Glen Ellyn submarkets were mixed for Q4 (3 areas lower / 2 areas higher)  Only the Central East had more than 10 contracts during the quarter; Central areas have flattened over the last 12 months after significant declines

Northwest Central East

Northeast South

Central West

200

 South submarket contract activity at historical lows over the last 12 months 150

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%) 100 '23

'22

%

Northwest

9

10

-10%

Northeast

4

2

100%

Central West

9

20

-55%

Central East

12

7

71%

South

4

6

-33%

73 (-1%) 71 (-1%) 50

49 (-22%) 22 (-57%) 19 (-24%)

0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Submarket

7


CLOSED HOMES By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Closed homes increased 10% in Q4 with only homes below $400K showing a decline

<$400K $600K – $799K

 More closings during the quarter caused further decreases in inventory (given lack of new listing activity)  Closing activity expected to follow decline in listings / contracts with low home inventory

$400K – $599K $800K+

300 250 200

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%)

150 '23

'22

%

<$400K

14

28

-50%

$400K - $599K

27

22

23%

$600K - $799K

15

10

50%

$800K+

20

9

122%

100

83 (-22%) 76 (-14%) 64 (-3%)

50 0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Price Range

136 (-6%)

8


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Glen Ellyn submarkets were mixed during the quarter (2 higher / 2 lower / 1 flat); overall increase driven by Central East

Northwest Central East

 Central West is the only area with more closings (up 10%+) over the last 12 months  South remained at historic lows over the last 12 months after another very low quarter

Northeast South

Central West

200

150

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%) 100 '23

'22

%

Northwest

8

12

-33%

Northeast

5

3

67%

Central West

12

12

0%

Central East

24

15

60%

South

3

5

-40%

79 (+11%) 76 (-4%) 51 (-16%)

50

25 (-51%) 17 (-41%) 0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Submarket

9


HOME INVENTORY By Price Range

Dec. Quarter End (YoY%)

 Available homes declined over 55% in Q4 from levels that were already historically low

<$400K $600K – $799K

 Homes priced over $800K currently represent 50% of all inventory with this price range flat from last year  Scarce inventory expected to continue driving “seller’s market” conditions

$400K – $599K $800K+

120 105 90

Dec. Trends (Relative%)

60 34%

39%

36%

17% 23%

17% 23%

17% 26%

26%

21%

21%

'19 '20 <$400K $600K – $799K

'21

50% 25% 0%

21% 15%

50%

45

10% 30% 10%

30

'22 '23 $400K – $599K $800K+

0

38% 26%

15 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

100% 75%

75

10 (0%) 6 (-67%) 2 (-71%) 2 (-83%) 10


By Submarket

Dec. Quarter End (YoY%)

 Home inventory is down meaningfully across Glen Ellyn submarkets

Northwest Central East

 Extremely limited home availability in all areas (less than 5 homes in all submarkets); each area individually at historical lows  Central submarkets represent nearly 55% of all available homes

Dec. Trends (Relative%)

75% 50% 25% 0%

Central West

60 50 40 30

10% 30% 25% 10% 25%

'19 Northwest Central East

10% 33%

12% 24%

13% 28%

13% 27%

34%

35%

19% 9%

10% 13%

12% 18%

31%

27% 13% 20%

10

'23 Central West

0

'20 '21 Northeast South

'22

20

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

100%

Northeast South

4 (-56%) 4 (-33%) 3 (-70%) 2 (-50%) 2 (-33%) 11


CONTRACT TIME By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Days between listing date and contract signing have been low (mostly less than two weeks) for a couple years

<$400K $600K – $799K

 Contract time increasing some driven by more days for homes priced over $600K  Expect contract times to remain short with very limited home availability

$400K – $599K $800K+

175 150 125

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%)

100

'23

'22

%

<$400K

4

15

-73%

$400K - $599K

13

13

0%

$600K - $799K

11

6

83%

$800K+

7

5

40%

75 50 25 0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Price Range

8 (-20%) 5 (-17%) 5 (0%) 5 (-7%) 12


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Contract times were quick in most areas during the quarter, but the Northwest and Central East saw times extend notably

100

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%)

75

'23

'22

%

Northwest

24

7

243%

Northeast

4

0

N/M

Central West

6

16

-63%

Central East

12

4

200%

South

4

7

-43%

Central West

125

 Homes on the market for more than two weeks could be overpriced or have other factors impacting time / interest

Submarket

Northeast South

50

25

0

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

 Central East increases driving overall market given this area had twice as many Q4 closings as any other area

Northwest Central East

11 (+120%) 9 (+29%) 7 (+17%) 6 (0%) 4 (-33%) 13


PRICE DISCOUNTS By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Price discounts were modest in Q4 with most homes selling at a small discount to ask ($800K+ selling for full price)  Homes priced $600K – $800K saw discounts enter the market compared to last year, but this price range still closed at asking price during the last 12 months  Price discounts expected to remain narrow given limited home inventory

<$400K $600K – $799K

$400K – $599K $800K+ 100% (-1%) 100% (0%) 100% (0%) 99% (+1%)

100%

95%

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%) 90% '23

'22

%

<$400K

97%

98%

-1%

$400K - $599K

97%

97%

0%

$600K - $799K

97%

101%

-4%

$800K+

100%

100%

0%

85%

80%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Price Range

14


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Glen Ellyn submarket price discounts varied during the quarter (2 areas at or above ask while 2 areas also saw discounts widen)

Northwest Central East

 South saw a large premium in Q4, but this only represented 3 closed transactions

100%

 Q4 typically has more negotiability than other times of the year; discounts were more limited over the last 12 months

95%

Northeast South

Central West 100% (0%) 100% (0%) 100% (+1%) 99% (-1%) 99% (-2%)

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%) 90% '23

'22

%

Northwest

94%

98%

-5%

Northeast

100%

98%

2%

Central West

97%

96%

1%

Central East

99%

100%

-1%

South

106%

98%

8%

85%

80%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Submarket

15


PRICE PER SQ. FT. By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Price per sq. ft. moved lower in the quarter with declines across price ranges, except homes below $400K

$325 $307 (-2%)

 While prices moderated, the overall pricing environment remains strong

$275

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%)

$225

Price Range

'23

'22

%

<$400K

$231

$210

10%

$400K - $599K

$246

$273

-10%

$600K - $799K

$269

$306

-12%

$800K+

$295

$322

-8%

$400K – $599K $800K+

$270 (+4%) $252 (0%) $212 (0%)

$175

$125

$75

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

 Relative prices have come off records set in the late summer / early fall, but are expected to be robust going into the new year

<$400K $600K – $799K

16


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Most submarkets were down for the quarter, except the South (this area had the fewest closings)  Northwest and Central areas declined despite higher overall closed sale prices (driven by home size mix)

Northwest Central East

Northeast South

Central West

$350

 Northwest has the only price per sq. ft. decrease over the last 12 months (Central West was flat during this period)

$300

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%)

$250

$307 (+5%) $302 (+3%) $289 (0%) $261 (-6%) $226 (+2%)

'23

'22

%

Northwest

$253

$290

-13%

Northeast

$295

$319

-8%

Central West

$274

$297

-8%

Central East

$288

$308

-6%

South

$231

$194

19%

$200

$150

$100

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Submarket

17


CLOSED SALE PRICES By Submarket  Overall sale prices were up significantly in Q4 as all areas increased, except the Northeast

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%) Northwest Central East

 Central East and South are up the most during the quarter and last 12 months; Central West is also higher in each period  While overall sale prices increased, home mix influences values (see price per sq. ft.)

Northeast South

Central West

$950 K $850 K $750 K

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%)

$762 K (-18%) $749K (+17%)

$650 K $550 K

$567 K (-5%) $560 K (+3%) $465 K (+7%)

Submarket

'23

'22

%

Northwest

$491K

$457K

7%

$450 K

Northeast

$945K

$1.4M

-31%

$350 K

Central West

$587K

$536K

9%

Central East

$780K

$640K

22%

South

$480K

$365K

32%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

$250 K

18


CLOSED SALE VOLUME By Submarket  Overall closed sale volume for Glen Ellyn was up 35% for the quarter, but down 10% over the last 12 months

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%) Northwest

Northeast

Central East

South

 Central East was up dramatically in Q4 (also up the most during the last 12 months); Northeast and South down 40%+ for the year

$125M

 Central submarkets remain the largest sale volume areas in Glen Ellyn

$100M

Oct. – Dec. (YoY%)

$75M

'23

'22

%

Northwest

$4M

$6M

-29%

Northeast

$5M

$4M

47%

Central West

$8M

$7M

15%

Central East

$19M

$10M

90%

South

$1M

$2M

-23%

$50M $25M

$61 M (+8%) $49 M (+4%) $32 M (-16%) $17 M (-43%) $13 M (-48%)

$0M

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

Submarket

Central West

19


COMPARING HOME TYPES Analyzing Glen Ellyn Home Types for Q4 2023

Home Type

Single Family

Town Houses

Condos

New Listings

66

29%

8

0%

26

44%

Contracted Homes

54

14%

5

0%

21

62%

Closed Homes

76

10%

7

17%

22

69%

Home Inventory

20

57%

2

33%

9

50%

Contract Time

10 days

25%

4 days

83%

6 days

20%

Price Discounts

99%

0%

102%

5%

102%

3%

Price per Sq. Ft.

$267

2%

$246

30%

$192

6%

Closed Sale Price

$577K

33%

$388K

9%

$208K

20% 20


COMPARING SUBURBS Analyzing Western Suburb Markets Suburb

Median Price

Q4 YoY%

Price / Sq. Ft.

Q4 YoY% Contract Days Q4 YoY%

Clarendon Hills

$515K

-32%

$325

26%

25

39%

Downers Grove

$480K

12%

$254

15%

10

-17%

Elmhurst

$553K

-1%

$291

10%

13

0%

Glen Ellyn

$577K

33%

$267

-2%

10

25%

Hinsdale

$1.4M

25%

$306

0%

35

52%

Lisle

$410K

5%

$218

2%

7

-53%

Lombard

$360K

6%

$227

8%

10

-23%

Western Springs

$750K

2%

$333

10%

4

-60%

Westmont

$373K

5%

$214

-3%

10

67%

Wheaton

$505K

13%

$242

7%

5

-72%

21


www.kellystetlerrealestate.com

Compass is a licensed real estate broker and abides by federal, state and local equal housing opportunity laws. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only, is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, and changes without notice. Sources include Midwest Real Estate Data LLC. This is not intended to solicit property already listed. Top Compass team ranking in DuPage County based on MRED BrokerMetrics for closed transaction volume (including MLS-verified off-market) dates 1/1/23 – 12/31/23 across all residential property types.

Glen Ellyn Office 479 N Main St, Suite 230 Glen Ellyn, IL 60137


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