Predicting the future

One of the most striking findings was focused on dialysis.

Nobody can predict the future with absolute certainty, so our numbers are based on two models. One looks at NHS capacity for dialysis and the other looks ahead to the potential number of patients who might need it.

There are currently 30,000 patients on dialysis. The first model assumes NHS capacity will continue to grow at current rates, based on the actual number of patients treated over the last ten years. This would mean dialysis would be available to 33,845 people in 2033.

The second model estimates how many patients may need dialysis in 2033, based on the future number of patients and how quickly people progress through the stages of kidney disease.

This model shows the number of patients needing dialysis in 2033 could be as high as 142,920, meaning capacity would need to grow by almost 400%, just to meet demand.

Whilst predictions can’t be totally accurate, even if this number was realised by half, the growth in need would be huge.

All this may sound like there is little hope ahead, but our report clearly sets out four cost-effective, potential healthcare interventions that could save the lives of 10,000 kidney patients by 2033.

From earlier and improved diagnosis, to better CKD management and greater use of medications such SGLT-2 inhibitors, which are proven to slow progression of CKD, the first three interventions would all be cost effective for the NHS.

Finally, increased rates of pre-emptive transplantation, before patients need dialysis, would save the NHS money.

Sandra Currie, Kidney Research UK chief executive said: “The findings are shocking, but we now have the evidence we need to significantly raise the profile of kidney disease and drive overdue change, so that together, we can achieve our ambitions to avert this silent crisis, and for everyone to live free from kidney disease.”

What’s next?

Based on the findings of this report, we are now calling for CKD to be made a priority in government and NHS long-term health plans.

Despite the costs of treatment, in 2021/22 kidney disease received just 1.4% (£17.7 million) of relevant government research funding. We want to see this become at least £50 million a year and for prevention to be a clear priority.

We also want more tests for people at risk of kidney disease so fewer people reach kidney failure and we’re continuing work we’ve already started to call for the Scottish Government to publish a CKD action plan.

How to get involved

You can download full and summary versions of the report on our website –please share what you discover with your friends and family.

We’re holding an event to share our recommendations with MPs and Peers at Westminster on September 11, we need you to join us in ensuring your MP attends.

You can find out how to take our e-action and write to your MP on the website too. Visit www.kidneyresearchuk.org/ health-economic-report

Growing Team Kidney

Several industry partners sponsored the report because they recognise kidney disease is overlooked as a health condition and that by joining forces, we can present a powerful voice to make the case for change and drive collaboration so that patients receive better care and treatment options.

STAGE 1 Kidney damage with normal kidney function

STAGE 2 Kidney damage with mild loss of kidney function

STAGE 3a Mild to moderate loss of kidney function

STAGE 3b Moderate to severe loss of kidney function

STAGE 4 Severe loss of kidney function

STAGE 5 Kidney failure

Katherine Forbes, Kidney Research UK director of innovation and enterprise

said:

“Kidney disease is a public health emergency waiting in the wings. That’s why we’re building our support for those researchers and start-up companies who are developing research-led innovations and working with industry partners to help accelerate development of novel therapies, treatments and products to benefit patients sooner.”

Katherine Forbes