Retail Price Index and Commodity Tips
Crude Oil Commodity we had a divergent view in the two yesterday owing to high movement in the Rupee. Indian Rupee over the last few days had been a major driver for local prices recently and we though with Rupee continuing appreciate, local prices would continue to underperform WTI Crude. While we saw moderate underperformance in local oil, it too later advanced in-tune to the US contract. Overall there are not much cues to be watched for the commodity today as we have no major data point to be tracked from the US. We feel oil prices might see ranged movement today with a number of economic cues from Euro is might drive some volatility in the afternoon session. Later in the US hours, though broad bias is likely to remain positive while traders would majorly await the API inventory report. Stocks are expected to show continued drawdown in Cushing front while crude and gasoline inventories might also show some decline as we near the summer driving season. We have a buying view in the commodity from lower levels today Global Market Analysis: The Asian equities are trading mostly higher this morning taking positive cues out of the US stock markets that ended higher overnight. From the currency space the dollar index has managed to claw back from yesterday’s 79.88 low and currently trading firm above the 80 mark. At the same time the Euro and the pound sterling are quoting at 1.3712 and 1.6817 levels correspondingly, scarcely any change from the preceding close. Into the energy basket, we gave a buying view in the NYMEX oil backed by decent support from Brent oil while US inventory expectations are also provided an upper hand to the black liquid. We would maintain a buying on dips call in the NYMEX and MCX crude for the day. Economic data – There are a few numbers from Germany and lot to watch from the UK. There are no major cues from the US today
Natural Gas Commodity while there were no major updates for the commodity on Monday, it went against our call of selling to close the day higher. We had been maintaining a selling view in short-term backed by anticipation that usually stable temperatures in the US during this time of the year would lead to lower consumption either for heating or cooling purpose. Effect of
subdued demand and rise in supply can also be seen on the inventory front, which rose for third week as per latest data, with reading by EIA standing at 105 BCF. While we are maintaining a similar view for the day as well, we are adding a risk factor based on the updated climate and temperature forecast by the US CPC. The 6-10 days temperature estimate by CPC depicts increase in warmness and thus might lead to gradual increase in cooling demand. While the effect of the same could only be seen in case the heat waves enhance; we hold a cautiously selling approach view in the commodity today
Commodity Tips Buy Crude Oil Mcx Jun on Dips near 5985 sl 5950 Tgt 6040 Buy Sugar Ncdex June above 3045 sl 3025 Tgt 3070