Kirkpatrick’s Weekly Market Strategist The technical stock market letter published weekly since 1976 october 20, 2017
Intermediate-Term Trend Table
Index Signal
BKX Up BOND Up UTY Up
Date
Sig Pr
Cur Pr
9/22 97.04 101.17 9/22 149 4/32 152 6/32 2/17 627 698
long-term u.s. tREASURY bONDS
*Change from last week
The re-optimized US Treasury Bond with the 5E model shows a buy signal way back in March at 146 22/32 and no change since. The negative crossover in the DMI could develop into a short sell signal if the price declines 1.2% below the low on the day of the crossover. This figure is 150 17/32, which if broken would be a short sale signal. The length of the DMI and the substantial smoothing factor make the DMI slow to react. Thus the signals are far apart and not usually close to the price turning points. I have drawn the forward line in red on the chart which gives a better idea of the current trend, which appears to be bottoming.
Conclusion: The position is long.
GOLD The gold future was run through an optimization using the model 5E, and as in the Treasury Bond, the ideal signals occur at lengthy intervals, almost as an intermediate-term signal for several months rather than weeks. To emphasize the shorter cycles I drew the forward line. Analysis of this line can be helpful. For example, the projected low from the downward crossing of the line in late September suggested an objective around $1,238 which is the distance from the peak to the line subtracted from the price where the line was crossed. The fact that gold is far from this price and beginning to bottom suggests that the underlying trend is still upward. If it was downward, the price would have exceeded the projection. Conclusion: The position is long.
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