Climatic Variability
Climatic Variability Impacts on Agriculture and Allied Sectors
M. Datta ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region Tripura Centre, Tripura
D. Daschaudhuri ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region Tripura Centre, Tripura
S.V. Ngachan ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region Umiam Centre, Meghalaya
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Foreword Agricultural systems worldwide over the last 40-50 years have responded to the effects of the interacting driving forces of population increase, income growth, urbanization and globalization on food production, markets and consumption. To these forces can be added the twin elements of climate variability and climate change which direct effects on both food production and food security. Climate continually change and there is evidence for the effect of recent accelerated warming on many biological systems. Not least of these are the effects on the geographic distributions of pests and pathogens, with potentially serious implications for food security. However, cropping systems will also change in response to climate, with consequent impacts on their interactions with pests and pathogens, The first was that climate change would likely increase the number of people at risk of hunger compared with reference scenarios with no climate change. Projected climate change impacts depended strongly on future social and economic development. Additionally, the magnitude to climate change impacts was projected to be smaller compared to the impact of social and economic development. In 2006, the global estimate for the number of people undernourished was 820 million under the SRES A1, B1, and B2 scenarios, projections for the year 2080 showed a reduction in the number of people undernourished of about 560-700 million people, with a global total of undernourished people of 100-240 million in 2080. By contrast, the SRES A2 scenario showed only a small decrease in the risk of hunger from the 2006 level. The smaller reduction under A2 was attributed to the higher projected future population level in this scenario. India is expected to be the most populous country in the world by 2025 and feeding the population is likely to
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be one of the serious challenges the country will face in the coming decades. As per Global Food Security Index (GFSI) 201, in which among 105 nations, India was ranked 66, which is a moderate position. Changes in mean temperature and precipitation patterns influence pest and pathogens incidence and distribution. Climate change is therefore likely to modify the crop and livestock disease spectrum in some regions and turn pathogens or pests, considered unimportant today, into potential new threats in the future. Evidence on the measured climate change on crops, livestock and their associated pests and pathogens is starting to be documented; however studies are still scarce and scattered. It is essential to better understand such complex interactions and to achieve a more mechanistic inclusion of pest and diseases effects in crop and livestock models and early warning systems. Taking up this challenge is the crucial step forward towards more realistic predictions of crop production and to allow a more efficient assistance in the development of robust adaptation strategies and food security policies. Climate change can affect pathogen and pest dynamics in multiple ways. Crucial is the question whether the effect of climate change outnumbers other factors affecting the epidemiology of pests and pathogens, and if so, how pathosystem management should be modified. I do congratulate the authors of ICAR Research Complex for making a compilation and editing the proceedings of the National Workshop into a book edited “Climatic Variability: Impacts on Agriculture and Allied Sectors’’. The edited book has got 5 major divisions such as Weather and Agromet Service, Pest and Diseases, Climate Influences over Agricultural and Horticultural crops, Climatic Influences over Animal husbandry and Fishes and ICT application in Agriculture. I do hope that various avenues of climatic variability and its impact on agricultural productivity are dealt in this volume and the information compiled herein can be made use in monitoring agricultural planning particularly in the North East India
Dated the 22nd January, 2013 New Delhi
(S. Ayyappan)
Foreword The euphoria surrounding the ‘Green revolution’ was questioned in the wake of the energy crisis and growing awareness of long-term environmental consequences since the beginning of the 1980s yet another threat to agriculture has attracted much attention. Many climatologists predict significant global warming in the coming decades due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and other trace gases. Beyond what is known about greenhouse gases and the climate system however lie great uncertainties. How much warming will occur at what rate and according to what geographical and seasonal pattern? What secondary processes will the warming trend induce and what might be the physical and biological impacts of such processes? Will some areas benefit while other areas suffer and who might the winners and losers be? And if such damages are unavoidable what can be done to adapt to modify our systems so as to minimize or overcome them? These are important and complex questions and we have only begun to understand them and to develop methods for their analysis. The effects of changes in climate on the productivity of agriculture and allied sectors are likely to vary greatly from region to region across the globe. The book entitled “Climatic Variability: Impacts on Agriculture and Allied Sectors’’ being an outcome of the National Workshop organized by ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region, Tripura Centre is a document edited by M. Datta, D. Daschaudhuri and S.V. Ngachan and covers various aspects viz. Weather and Agromet Service, Pest and Diseases, Climatic Influences over Agricultural and Horticultural Crops, Climatic Influences over Animal Husbandry / Fishes and ICT application in
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Agriculture. I would congratulate the authors in organizing the National Workshop in the North east and bringing out this sort of valuable publication which would definitely pave a way for sustaining the productivity of crops and animals / fishes under variable climatic variability situations. Agromet Advisory Services being in operation country wide under the purview of Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India may be brought under use in the district level and in future in the block / Panchayat level to adequately focus the issues of climatic variability and suggest suitable measures for the benefit of the farming community.
L.S. Rathore Director General of Meteorology & Permanent Representative of India with W.M.O.
Preface The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture are highly uncertain. The risks associated with climate change lie in the interaction of several systems with many variables that must be collectively considered. Agriculture (including crop husbandry, animal husbandry, forestry and fisheries) can be defined as one of the systems, and climate the other. If these systems are treated independently, this would lead to an approach which is too fragmentary. The issue is more global. It is now held as likely that human activities can affect climate, one of the components of the environment. Climate, in turn affects agriculture, the source of all food consumed by human beings and domestic animals. It must be further considered that not only climate may be changing, but that human societies and agriculture develop trends and constraints of their own which climate change impact studies must take into consideration. The robust conclusion that does emerge from impact studies is that climate change has the potential to change significantly the productivity of agriculture at most locations. Some currently highly productive areas may become much less productive. Some currently marginal areas may benefit substantially while others may become unproductive. Crop yield studies show regional variations of +20, 30 or more per cent in some areas and equal size losses in other areas. Most areas can expect change and will need to adapt, but the direction of change, particularly of precipitation, and required adaptations cannot now be predicted. Nor may it ever be possible to predict them with confidence. Current evidence suggests that pole ward regions where agriculture is limited by short growing seasons, are more likely to gain while subtropical and tropical regions may be more likely to suffer drought and losses in productivity. However, these broad conclusions hardly provide the basis for mapping out a long-term strategy for agricultural adaptation. The book entitled “Climatic Variability : Impacts on Agriculture and Allied Sectors� is an outcome of the National Workshop organized by ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region, Tripura Centre in collaboration with National Initiatives on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA), Directorate of Biotechnology and Department of Agriculture, Govt. of Tripura with financial support from Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt of India, National Horticulture Board, New Delhi, Farm Information Division (Extension), Ministry of Agriculture & Cooperation, New Delhi. The
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National workshop has a broad divisions of 5 different topics, namely, Weather and Agromet Services, Pest and Diseases, Climatic Influences over Agricultural and Horticultural crops, Climatic Influences over Animal husbandry and Fisheries and ICT application in Agriculture. There is a need to strengthen the Agromet Services presently in operation by India Meteorological Department and pest and disease surveillance along with prediction models and supported by ICT application can definitely give a respite to the farming community to combat the weather vagaries.
M. Datta D. Daschaudhuri S.V. Ngachan ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region Tripura Centre, Tripura
Contributors A. Goswami Division of Veterinary Parasitology ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region Umroi Road, Umian Meghalaya A.K. Singh Programme Coordinator Krishi Vigyan Kendra Birchandramanu South Tripura
Boopathi T. ICAR Research Complex NEH Region Mizoram Centre Kolasib – 796 081, Mizoram Britan Rahman Krishi Vigyan Kendra-West Tripura Chebri, Khowai – 799 207 Tripura (West)
Ajay Kumar Dairy Cattle Nutrition Division National Dairy Research Institute Karnal – 132 001, Haryana
C. Debnath Scientist (Fishery) ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region Tripura Centre Lembucherra – 799 210 Tripura
Amar Bahadur Asstt Professor (Plant Pathology) College of Agriculture, Lembucherra Agartala – 799 210, Tripura
C.K. Kundu Department of Agronomy Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya Mohanpur, Nadia – 741 252, West Bengal
B.L. Meena ICAR-RC-NEH Region Centre Lembucherra – 799210, Tripura
Chander Datta Dairy Cattle Nutrition Division National Dairy Research Institute Karnal – 132 001, Haryana
B.C. Debbarme, Supt. (Sericulture) DHHS, Takarjala Tripura B.S. Prakash Division of Dairy Cattle Physiology NDRI, Karnal – 132 001, Haryana Banjul Bhattacharyya Department of Agricultural Statistics Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya Mohanpur – 741 235, West Bengal
D. Daschaudhuri ICAR Research Complex for NEH Region Tripura Centre, Lembucherra Tripura – 799 210 D. Majumder Department of Agricultural Statistics Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya Mohanpur – 741 235 West Bengal
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