ROCKINGHAM COUNTY MARKET REPORT December 2017
Presented by:
K L I N E RMe aAl tYy
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Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
1254
1,254
2.76 m
-4.49%
-4.49%
-33.91% $219,310 +2.48%
City of Harrisonburg Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
419
419
-4.99%
-4.99%
1.89 m -34.37% $193,720 +5.48%
Southeast Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
262
262
3.71 m
-8.39%
-8.39%
-15.30% $280,973 +7.62%
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Southwest Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
140
140
-16.67%
-16.67% $237,414
3.09 m
+0.90%
+19.14%
Northwest Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
$190,989
2.54 m
-4.71%
-58.70%
250
250
+2.04%
+2.04%
Northeast Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
3.43 m -36.86% 105
105
$206,520
0.00%
0.00%
+2.01%
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Massanutten Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
3.38 m -52.99%
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78
78
$228,706
+14.71%
+14.71%
+0.68%
Residential Sales By Month Harrisonburg and Rockingham County 160
# of Units
140 120 2014
100
2015 2016
80
2017
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Ju ly
Ju ne
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Fe br ua ry
Ja nu ar
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60
What This Chart Shows: Residential home sales by month, since 2008. This chart helps show seasonal trends in home sales. Bottom Line: After seeing declining monthly sales totals for three straight months, the Rockingham County residential market finished 2017 strong, with 102 sales in December - the highest total for December in the past ten years. The market has seemed very active so far in January, and we are hopeful momentum is building towards a strong Spring market.
Residential Units Sold Year To Date Harrisonburg and Rockingham County December
1200
November October
1000
September
# of Units
August 800
July June May
600
April 400
March
200
January
February
17 20
16 20
15 20
14 20
13 20
12 20
11 20
10 20
09 20
20
08
0
What This Chart Shows: Total residential sales from January 1 until the date on this chart, since 2008. Bottom Line: We are displaying Year-to-Date sales data in a new format this year. This chart shows not only the YTD sales totals at the end of December, but the monthly sales which make up the total. Looking at the 2017 bar, we can see our monthly figures were ahead of, or on pace with prior years through July. From August until now our sales have declined compared to last year, primarily due to the profound lack of inventory.
Residential Properties Placed Under Contract Harrisonburg and Rockingham County
# of Units
150
100
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20 09 M Se ay ,2 pt em 00 9 be r, 20 Ja nu 09 ar y, 20 10 M Se ay ,2 pt em 01 0 be r, 20 Ja nu 10 ar y, 20 11 M Se ay ,2 pt em 01 1 be r, 20 Ja nu 11 ar y, 20 12 M Se ay ,2 pt em 01 2 be r, 20 Ja nu 12 ar y, 20 13 M Se ay , pt em 201 3 be r, 20 Ja nu 13 ar y, 20 14 M Se ay ,2 pt em 01 4 be r, 20 Ja nu 14 ar y, 20 15 M Se ay , pt em 201 5 be r, 20 Ja nu 15 ar y, 20 16 M Se ay ,2 pt em 01 6 be r, 20 Ja nu 16 ar y, 20 17 M Se ay ,2 pt em 01 7 be r, 20 17
50
What This Chart Shows: The number of residential properties on which Buyers and Sellers entered into contracts each month since 2009. This is an excellent indicator of future sales. Bottom Line: As with sales, 2017 displayed the same seasonality as prior years, but in the second half of the year the contract numbers have begun dipping below last year's figures. Without an injection of inventory to sell, we can expect this pattern to continue through the winter.
Residential Sales, Past 12 Months Harrisonburg and Rockingham County 1300 1200
# of Units
1100 1000 900 800
Ja nu ar
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20 08 Se Ma y, pt 2 em 0 be 08 r , Ja nu 200 ar 8 y, 20 09 Se Ma y pt em , 20 be 09 r, Ja nu 200 ar 9 y, 20 10 Se Ma y pt em , 20 be 10 r, Ja nu 201 ar 0 y, 20 11 Se Ma y pt em , 20 be 11 r, Ja nu 201 ar 1 y, 20 12 Se Ma y pt em , 20 be 12 r, Ja nu 201 ar 2 y, 20 13 Se Ma y pt em , 20 be 13 r, Ja nu 201 ar 3 y, 20 14 Se Ma y, pt em 20 be 14 r, Ja nu 201 ar 4 y, 20 15 Se Ma y, pt em 20 be 15 r, Ja nu 201 ar 5 y, 20 16 Se Ma y, pt em 20 be 16 r, Ja nu 201 ar 6 y, 20 17 Se Ma y, pt em 20 be 17 r, 20 17
700
What This Chart Shows: The past twelve months sales, for this month and each month since 2008. This is one of the best ways to see the true long term trend in the market. Bottom Line: A rolling 12-month sales figure is a good way to see the overall trends in our market. We can see from this chart sales increased steadily from mid-2011 through mid-2017. As the market slowed despite strong buyer activity, the 12-month totals dropped to roughly the same level as this point last year.
Single Family and Townhome Listing Inventory Rockingham County 700 600
# of Units
500 400 300 200 100
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0
What This Chart Shows: The long term inventory trend in Rockingham County, with Single Family homes seperated from Townhomes. Bottom Line: We can see from this chart how the inventory of homes for sale in Rockingham County has been, with a few variations, generally declining for the past 10 years. The average inventory for December, 2017 of 242 homes for sale is less than half of the January, 2008 average of 509 homes for sale. The reasons for the decline are several; homeowners refinancing with a low interest rate and staying in their home instead of moving, younger folks forming households and buying homes 5 - 10 years later in life than previous generations, and potential Sellers' fear of not being able to find a suitable new home are just a few.
Combined Residential Townhomes
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Single Family and Townhome Listing Inventory City of Harrisonburg 400
Combined Residential
# of Units
300
200
100
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0
What This Chart Shows: The long term inventory trend in the City of Harrisonburg, with Single Family homes seperated from Townhomes. Bottom Line: The decline in inventory in the City of Harrisonburg has been more severe than in Rockingham County. This chart show a clear seasonal pattern, with overall declines every year since 2010. This situation has become critical, with the December average of 71 homes for sale in the entire City representing just under 25% of the 290 homes for sale in January 2010. This kind of decline is obviously very unhealthy for our market, and evolves into a compounding problem - potential Sellers are worried they will not be able to ďŹ nd a suitable due to lack of inventory, so they do not put their home on the market... contributing to the lack of inventory!
Townhomes
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Average and Median Sold Price Harrisonburg and Rockingham County $230000 $220000
Price
$210000 $200000 $190000 $180000
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$170000
What This Chart Shows: The long term trend in average and median sales prices for homes. Bottom Line: Prices have steadily been on the rise for several years, although at a slower pace than one might expect with the lack of inventory in the market. One dramatic dierence in Buyer's behavior as compared to 10 years ago is today's Buyers are not willing to irrationally bid up the price of a home in a competitive situation. This reserved behavior on the part of Buyers (and reinforced by lenders and appraisers, in contrast to 10 years ago) has kept the rate of price increases reasonable and sustainable.
Average Sold Price Median Sold Price