ROCKINGHAM COUNTY MARKET REPORT December 2018
Presented by:
K L I N E RMe aAl tYy
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Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
2.52 m -8.70% 1302
1,302
$235,396
+3.83%
+3.83%
+7.33%
City of Harrisonburg Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
1.54 m -18.40% 459
459
$210,726
+9.55%
+9.55%
+8.78%
Southeast Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
2.98 m -19.73% 270
270
$300,507
+3.05%
+3.05%
+6.95%
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Southwest Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
2.50 m -19.09% 149
149
$243,819
+6.43%
+6.43%
+2.70%
Northwest Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
238
238
-4.80%
-4.80% $204,685
3.03 m
+7.17%
+18.92%
Northeast Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
110
110
$231,373
4.04 m
+4.76%
+4.76%
+12.03%
+17.73%
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Massanutten Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
76
76
-2.56%
-2.56%
3.00 m -11.36% $238,553 +4.31%
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Residential Sales By Month Harrisonburg and Rockingham County 160
# of Units
140 120 2014 2015
100
2016 2017
80
2018
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60
What This Chart Shows: Residential home sales by month, since 2008. This chart helps show seasonal trends in home sales. Bottom Line: As is often the case, residential sales ticked upward from November to December, with 100 homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We remain in a Seller's market, with Buyers outnumbering Sellers and the lack of inventory hampering sales. Typically, after the holiday season the pace of the market largely depends on the severity of our winter weather. We will wait and see what Mother Nature delivers...
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Residential Units Sold Year To Date Harrisonburg and Rockingham County December
1200
November October
1000
September
# of Units
August July
800
June May
600
April March
400
February January
200
18 20
17 20
16 20
15 20
14 20
13 20
12 20
11 20
10 20
09 20
20
08
0
What This Chart Shows: Total residential sales from January 1 until the date on this chart, since 2008. Bottom Line: While the seasonal patterns remained largely the same as prior years, total sales in 2018 exceeded 2017 by 3.83%. Buyers are felt a great sense of urgency throughout the year, as the competition for available homes was fierce. Multiple offers were common, and new listings received immediate attention from several potential Buyers.
Residential Properties Placed Under Contract Harrisonburg and Rockingham County
# of Units
150
100
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50
What This Chart Shows: The number of residential properties on which Buyers and Sellers entered into contracts each month since 2009. This is an excellent indicator of future sales. Bottom Line: December is often the month with the fewest new contracts, and 2018 was no exception. In December, Buyers and Sellers ratified contracts on 66 homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. While the lowest monthly total of the year, it is comparable to past December contract totals.
Residential Sales, Past 12 Months Harrisonburg and Rockingham County 1300 1200
# of Units
1100 1000 900 800
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700
What This Chart Shows: The past twelve months sales, for this month and each month since 2008. This is one of the best ways to see the true long term trend in the market. Bottom Line: After declining from mid-2017 through mid-2018, the 12-month sales trend began to rise in the second half of 2018. We finished the year with 1,302 residential sales, nearly 4% higher than 2017 and almost identical to the 1,306 sales in 2016. If inventory remains tight, we expect to see a similar increase in 2019. If, however, the inventory of homes for sales increases we can expect a fairly large increase over 2018 due to the existing backlog of Buyers waiting to find a home.
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Single Family and Townhome Listing Inventory Rockingham County 700 600
# of Units
500 400 300 200 100
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0
What This Chart Shows: The long term inventory trend in Rockingham County, with Single Family homes seperated from Townhomes. Bottom Line: The number of homes for sale held fairly steady during 2018, although still far below historical norms. The average number of homes for sale in December, 2018 was 7% less than in December, 2017 (225 and 242, respectively). This decline is far less than we have seen in the previous few years and is hopefully a sign of good things to come. Plans for several hundred new homes in new communities were approved by Rockingham County in 2018, and will bring more choices for Buyers to the market in 2019 and 2020.
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Combined Residential Townhomes
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Single Family and Townhome Listing Inventory City of Harrisonburg 400
Combined Residential
# of Units
300
200
100
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Se M 200 pt ay 8 em , 2 be 00 8 Ja r nu , 20 ar 08 y, Se M 200 pt ay 9 em , 2 0 b 0 Ja er, 9 nu 20 ar 0 y, 9 Se M 201 pt ay 0 em , 2 be 01 0 Ja r nu , 20 ar 1 y, 0 Se M 201 pt ay 1 em , 2 be 01 1 Ja r nu , 20 ar 11 y, Se M 201 pt ay 2 em , 2 be 01 2 Ja r nu , 20 ar 1 y, 2 Se M 201 pt ay 3 em , 2 be 01 3 Ja r nu , 20 ar 13 y, Se M 201 pt ay 4 em , 2 0 b 1 Ja er, 4 nu 20 ar 1 y, 4 Se M 201 pt ay 5 em , 2 be 01 5 Ja r nu , 20 ar 1 y, 5 Se M 201 pt ay 6 em , 2 0 b 1 Ja er, 6 nu 20 ar 1 y, 6 Se M 201 pt ay 7 em , 2 be 01 7 Ja r nu , 20 ar 1 y, 7 Se M 201 pt ay 8 em , 2 be 01 r, 8 20 18
0
What This Chart Shows: The long term inventory trend in the City of Harrisonburg, with Single Family homes seperated from Townhomes. Bottom Line: The inventory of homes for sale in Harrisonburg also continued to decline, but at a far slower rate than the past several years. The supply of homes for sale (how long the current inventory of homes on the market would last at the current pace of sales) in December was an incredibly low 1.54 months. Other than the past few years, the typical supply of homes for sale in Harrisonburg has been around 6 months... four times the number of homes for sale that we are seeing now.
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Townhomes
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Average and Median Sold Price Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Average Sold Price $230000
Price
$220000 $210000 $200000 $190000 $180000
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$170000
What This Chart Shows: The long term trend in average and median sales prices for homes. Bottom Line: Basic economics tells us if a desired commodity is in short supply, buyers will eventually begin to bid up the price as they compete for the scarce product. This is what we saw in our real estate market in 2018, as prices rose over by 7% overall and by nearly 9% in the City of Harrisonburg. This increase, combined with slightly higher interest rates has begun to create aordability problems for some Buyers. If inventory remains very tight, we can expect to see similar price increases in 2019.
Median Sold Price