ROCKINGHAM COUNTY MARKET REPORT November 2017
Presented by:
K L I N E RMe aAl tYy
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Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
1149
1,244
3.17 m
-5.28%
-4.09%
-23.94% $218,596 +2.55%
City of Harrisonburg Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
380
408
-7.32%
-8.52%
2.26 m -21.33% $190,809 +4.92%
Southeast Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
239
259
3.98 m
-9.47%
-8.16%
-9.09% $280,338 +6.05%
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Southwest Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
127
136
-20.13%
-18.56% $235,750
3.88 m
+1.15%
+50.08%
Northwest Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
$193,751
2.63 m
-3.50%
-57.40%
232
256
+9.43%
+15.32%
Northeast Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
96
105
4.11 m
-8.57%
-8.70%
-24.18% $204,568 +3.72%
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Massanutten Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
4.50 m -37.50%
Â
75
80
$229,167
+19.05%
+23.08%
+0.95%
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Residential Sales By Month Harrisonburg and Rockingham County 160
# of Units
140 120 2014
100
2015 2016
80
2017
be r D
ec
em
be r em ov N
ob er ct O
be r Se pt em
gu st Au
Ju ly
Ju ne
M ay
Ap ril
h M ar c
Fe br ua ry
Ja nu ar
y
60
What This Chart Shows: Residential home sales by month, since 2008. This chart helps show seasonal trends in home sales. Bottom Line: Sales remained steady in November with 94 properties sold, compared to 96 in October. Sales figures continue to fall behind last year's totals, as historically low inventory has a stranglehold on our residential market.
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Residential Units Sold Year To Date Harrisonburg and Rockingham County December
1200
November October
1000
September
# of Units
August 800
July June May
600
April 400
March
200
January
February
17 20
16 20
15 20
14 20
13 20
12 20
11 20
10 20
09 20
20
08
0
What This Chart Shows: Total residential sales from January 1 until the date on this chart, since 2008. Bottom Line: We are displaying Year-to-Date sales data in a new format this month. This chart shows not only the YTD sales totals at the end of November, but the monthly sales which make up the total. Looking at the 2017 bar, we can see our monthly figures were ahead of, or on pace with prior years through July. From August until now our sales have declined compared to last year.
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Residential Properties Placed Under Contract Harrisonburg and Rockingham County
# of Units
150
100
Ja nu ar
y,
20 09 M Se ay ,2 pt em 00 9 be r, 20 Ja nu 09 ar y, 20 10 M Se ay ,2 pt em 01 0 be r, 20 Ja nu 10 ar y, 20 11 M Se ay ,2 pt em 01 1 be r, 20 Ja nu 11 ar y, 20 12 M Se ay ,2 pt em 01 2 be r, 20 Ja nu 12 ar y, 20 13 M Se ay , pt em 201 3 be r, 20 Ja nu 13 ar y, 20 14 M Se ay ,2 pt em 01 4 be r, 20 Ja nu 14 ar y, 20 15 M Se ay , pt em 201 5 be r, 20 Ja nu 15 ar y, 20 16 M Se ay ,2 pt em 01 6 be r, 20 Ja nu 16 ar y, 20 17 M Se ay ,2 pt em 01 7 be r, 20 17
50
What This Chart Shows: The number of residential properties on which Buyers and Sellers entered into contracts each month since 2009. This is an excellent indicator of future sales. Bottom Line: As with sales, 2017 displayed the same seasonality as prior years, but in the second half of the year the contract numbers have begun dipping below last year's figures. Without an injection of inventory to sell, we can expect this pattern to continue through the winter.
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Residential Sales, Past 12 Months Harrisonburg and Rockingham County 1300 1200
# of Units
1100 1000 900 800
Ja nu ar
y,
20 08 Se Ma y, pt 2 em 0 be 08 r , Ja nu 200 ar 8 y, 20 09 Se Ma y pt em , 20 be 09 r, Ja nu 200 ar 9 y, 20 10 Se Ma y pt em , 20 be 10 r, Ja nu 201 ar 0 y, 20 11 Se Ma y pt em , 20 be 11 r, Ja nu 201 ar 1 y, 20 12 Se Ma y pt em , 20 be 12 r, Ja nu 201 ar 2 y, 20 13 Se Ma y pt em , 20 be 13 r, Ja nu 201 ar 3 y, 20 14 Se Ma y, pt em 20 be 14 r, Ja nu 201 ar 4 y, 20 15 Se Ma y, pt em 20 be 15 r, Ja nu 201 ar 5 y, 20 16 Se Ma y, pt em 20 be 16 r, Ja nu 201 ar 6 y, 20 17 Se Ma y, pt em 20 be 17 r, 20 17
700
What This Chart Shows: The past twelve months sales, for this month and each month since 2008. This is one of the best ways to see the true long term trend in the market. Bottom Line: The sales gains made early in the year have now been completely erased, and our 12-month sales total is nearly identical to one year ago. Prices are still attractive and interest rates are very low... but with far lower than the typical number of houses on the market from which Buyers can choose, sales continue to slow down.
Â
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Single Family and Townhome Listing Inventory Rockingham County 700 600
# of Units
500 400 300 200 100
Ja nu ar
y,
2 Se Ma 008 pt y em , 2 0 be 08 r, Ja nu 20 0 ar y, 8 20 Se Ma 09 pt y em , 2 0 be 09 r, Ja nu 20 0 ar y, 9 20 Se Ma 10 pt y em , 2 0 be 10 r, Ja 2 nu 01 ar y, 0 2 Se Ma 011 pt y, em 2 0 be 11 r, Ja nu 20 1 ar y, 1 20 Se Ma 12 pt y em , 2 0 be 12 r, Ja nu 20 1 ar y, 2 20 Se Ma 13 pt y em , 2 0 be 13 r, Ja nu 20 1 ar y, 3 20 Se Ma 14 pt y em , 2 0 be 14 r, Ja nu 20 1 ar y, 4 20 Se Ma 15 pt y em , 2 0 be 15 r, Ja nu 20 1 ar y, 5 20 Se Ma 16 pt y em , 2 0 be 16 r, Ja nu 20 1 ar y, 6 20 Se Ma 17 pt y em , 2 0 be 17 r, 20 17
0
What This Chart Shows: The long term inventory trend in Rockingham County, with Single Family homes seperated from Townhomes. Bottom Line: After five years of relatively steady inventory numbers in Rockingham County, 2017 saw a sharp decline in the number of homes available for sale. The November average of 270 homes for sale is nearly 100 fewer than at this time last year, when the average was 362.
Combined Residential Townhomes
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Single Family and Townhome Listing Inventory City of Harrisonburg 400
Combined Residential
# of Units
300
200
100
Ja nu ar
y,
2 Se Ma 008 pt y em , 2 0 be 08 r, Ja nu 20 0 ar y, 8 20 Se Ma 09 pt y em , 2 0 be 09 r, Ja nu 20 0 ar y, 9 20 Se Ma 10 pt y em , 2 0 be 10 r, Ja 2 nu 01 ar y, 0 2 Se Ma 011 pt y, em 2 0 be 11 r, Ja nu 20 1 ar y, 1 20 Se Ma 12 pt y em , 2 0 be 12 r, Ja nu 20 1 ar y, 2 20 Se Ma 13 pt y em , 2 0 be 13 r, Ja nu 20 1 ar y, 3 20 Se Ma 14 pt y em , 2 0 be 14 r, Ja nu 20 1 ar y, 4 20 Se Ma 15 pt y em , 2 0 be 15 r, Ja nu 20 1 ar y, 5 20 Se Ma 16 pt y em , 2 0 be 16 r, Ja nu 20 1 ar y, 6 20 Se Ma 17 pt y em , 2 0 be 17 r, 20 17
0
What This Chart Shows: The long term inventory trend in the City of Harrisonburg, with Single Family homes seperated from Townhomes. Bottom Line: In contrast to the County's relatively stable inventory history, the number of homes for sale in Harrisonburg has been steadily declining since 2010. If this does not turn around, local residents will either be forced to rent instead of buy, or to buy in the County rather than the City. We have hit a critical point in the inventory shortage, and will see an extremely competitive market next Spring without a significant rise in the number of homes for sale.
Townhomes
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Average and Median Sold Price Harrisonburg and Rockingham County $230000 $220000
Price
$210000 $200000 $190000 $180000
Ja nu ar
y, 20 Se M 08 pt ay em , 2 b 008 Ja er, nu 20 0 ar y, 8 20 Se M 09 pt ay em , 2 b 009 Ja er, nu 20 0 ar y, 9 20 Se M 10 pt ay em , 2 0 10 b Ja er, nu 20 1 ar y, 0 20 M Se 11 pt ay em , 2 b 011 Ja er, nu 20 1 ar y, 1 20 Se M 12 pt ay em , 2 b 012 Ja er, nu 20 1 ar y, 2 20 Se M 13 pt ay em , 2 0 13 b Ja er, nu 20 1 ar y, 3 20 Se M 14 pt ay em , 2 0 14 b Ja er, nu 20 1 ar y, 4 20 Se M 15 pt ay em , 2 b 015 Ja er, nu 20 1 ar y, 5 20 Se M 16 pt ay em , 2 b 016 Ja er, nu 20 1 ar y, 6 20 Se M 17 pt ay em , 2 0 be 17 r, 20 17
$170000
What This Chart Shows: The long term trend in average and median sales prices for homes. Bottom Line: Average and median sales prices continue to rise slowly from their low point in December, 2012. The current 12-month average sales price of $218,596 is 2.5% higher than one year ago and 8% higher than three years ago, while the median sales price of $198,250 is 4.3% higher than one year ago and 10.75% higher than three years ago.
Average Sold Price Median Sold Price