ROCKINGHAM COUNTY MARKET REPORT February 2018
Presented by:
K L I N E RMe aAl tYy
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Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
1,265
2.76 m
-3.58%
-23.01%
142
$222,280
+5.19%
+3.91%
City of Harrisonburg Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
47
415
-6.00%
-5.47%
2.08 m -15.37% $194,746 +5.16%
Southeast Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
276
3.09 m
-1.43%
-29.38%
36
$282,853
+44.00%
+6.96%
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Southwest Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
14
140
2.49 m
-12.50%
-12.50%
-19.16% $242,444 +2.99%
Northwest Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
$193,529
2.86 m
-2.61%
-41.14%
26
256
+30.00%
+3.64%
Northeast Rockingham Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
$206,531
3.76 m
+6.19%
+9.80%
11
102
-21.43%
-8.93%
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Massanutten Units Sold
12 Month
12 Month
Months Supply
Year to Date
Residential Sales
Avg Sales Price
of Inventory
8
4.11 m
-20.00%
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-6.24% 76
$233,496
+2.70%
+2.95%
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Residential Sales By Month Harrisonburg and Rockingham County 160
# of Units
140 120 2014
100
2015 2016
80
2017 2018
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Ju ly
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Fe br ua ry
Ja nu ar
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60
What This Chart Shows: Residential home sales by month, since 2008. This chart helps show seasonal trends in home sales. Bottom Line: Our local real estate market has heated up a bit early this year. Partly due to the mild winter, and partly due to Buyer's fears that interest rates will rise throughout the year, Buyers have remained active through the winter. February's total of 80 closed sales is the highest in the past 10 years for the month. Were it not for the continued lack of inventory, sales would undoubtedly be even higher.
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Residential Units Sold Year To Date Harrisonburg and Rockingham County December
1200
November October
1000
September
# of Units
August 800
July June May
600
April 400
March
200
January
February
18 20
17 20
16 20
15 20
14 20
13 20
12 20
11 20
10 20
09 20
20
08
0
What This Chart Shows: Total residential sales from January 1 until the date on this chart, since 2008. Bottom Line: We are only two months into the year, but we are off to a good start compared to the past 10 years. The number of new listings in the market this Spring will determine the continued pace of sales.
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Residential Properties Placed Under Contract Harrisonburg and Rockingham County
# of Units
150
100
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50
What This Chart Shows: The number of residential properties on which Buyers and Sellers entered into contracts each month since 2009. This is an excellent indicator of future sales. Bottom Line: In addition to strong sales so far, new contracts in January and February have been strong, with February's total of 104 close on the heels of January's surprising 105 contracts. Again, this very strong activity would be even stronger if the inventory of homes for sale was closer to typical levels.
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Residential Sales, Past 12 Months Harrisonburg and Rockingham County 1300 1200
# of Units
1100 1000 900 800
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700
What This Chart Shows: The past twelve months sales, for this month and each month since 2008. This is one of the best ways to see the true long term trend in the market. Bottom Line: While we saw the 12 month sales trend falling during the second half of 2017, we appear to finally be reversing that trend. The trend has been inching upwards for the past few months, and based on the very strong Buyer activity in the market, we expect the increase to continue.
Single Family and Townhome Listing Inventory Rockingham County 700 600
# of Units
500 400 300 200 100
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0
What This Chart Shows: The long term inventory trend in Rockingham County, with Single Family homes seperated from Townhomes. Bottom Line: The residential real estate market in Rockingham County will be defined in 2018 as it was in 2016 and 2017 - by inventory levels. Inventory in the County declined precipitously in the second half of 2017, reaching a 10-year low point of 216 homes for sale in both January and February of this year.
Combined Residential Townhomes
Single Family and Townhome Listing Inventory City of Harrisonburg 400
Combined Residential
# of Units
300
200
100
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0
What This Chart Shows: The long term inventory trend in the City of Harrisonburg, with Single Family homes seperated from Townhomes. Bottom Line: The inventory levels in the City of Harrisonburg are dire. As our chart shows, inventory has been steadily declining for 8 years. Another similar decline this year would result in very intense competition for homes, which generally leads to higher prices. This, combined with potentially rising interest rates, will have a significant effect on affordability for some Buyers.
Townhomes
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Average and Median Sold Price Harrisonburg and Rockingham County $230000 $220000
Price
$210000 $200000 $190000 $180000
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$170000
What This Chart Shows: The long term trend in average and median sales prices for homes. Bottom Line: Prices have increased at a mysteriously slow pace over the past few years, but we believe that has begun to change. The disparity between the number of Buyers in the market (Many) and Sellers in the market (few) has ďŹ nally begun to push prices up at an increasing pace. The median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County now stands at $199,900 - the same number as in April, 2008.
Average Sold Price Median Sold Price