Forsyth Futures-2008 Making Progress Report

Making Progress

in Forsyth County

Table of Contents Section One: Introduction

p.4

• About Forsyth Futures • A Message from the Board of Directors • C ommunity Engagement Report: The Process

Section Two: County Profile p.8 • Population • Educational Attainment

Section Six: Forsyth County Residents Are Engaged in Their Community

p.27

Section Seven: Forsyth County Residents Are Physically and Mentally Healthy p.39

• Overview

• Overview

• Indicators

• Indicators

Active Involvement in Civic and Volunteer Activities

Alcohol and Illegal Substance Abuse

Chronic Disease Death Rate

Attendance Rate at Public Performances

Health Coverage

Diverse Representation in Civic Leadership Roles

Infant Death

Obesity

Residents Who Receive Mental Health Services

Residents with Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs)

Teen Pregnancy

Tobacco Use

• Households

Neighborhood Associations

• Business Community

Number of Public Performances/Events

Open Space

Public and Private Support for the Arts

Registered Library Users

Residents Safe from Pollution (Air)

Residents Safe from Pollution (Water)

Section Eight: Forsyth County Residents Are Safe Where They Live, Work and Play p.49

Residents Who Vote

Section Three: Indicators

p.13

• What Are Indicators?

• How Are They Selected?

Section Four: Forsyth County Residents Are Economically Self-Sufficient p.15 • Overview • Indicators

• Overview • Indicators

Affordable Homes

Adults Entering Prison

Net Job Growth

Annual Crime Rate

Residents Below the Poverty Level

Average Emergency Response Time

esidents Living Below 200 Percent R of the Poverty Level

Children Who Are Maltreated

Domestic Violence

Elderly and Disabled Adults Who Are Maltreated

Hate Crimes

Juvenile Delinquency

Leading Causes of Traffic Deaths

Section Five: Forsyth County Residents Are Achieving Educational Success p.20 • Overview • Indicators

Adult Literacy

Violent Acts That Occur on School Grounds

High School Graduation

Youth in Gangs

K-12 State Accountability Standards

Kindergarten Readiness

Residents with Post-Secondary Degrees

Students Passing End-of-Grade Tests During Gateway Years

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Section One

Introduction Forsyth Futures is a community collaborative of residents, organizations and institutions working together to solve critical issues that no one organization can solve alone. Forsyth Futures serves as an organizing entity dedicated to bringing the community together to address these issues.

Making Progress

We Can Do Better 4

Making Progress About Forsyth Futures

Overview: O n July 1, 2006, the Forsyth Council for Children and Families (FCCF), an organization in operation since 1975, changed its name to Forsyth Futures and expanded its mission “to improve positive outcomes for adults, children and families of the WinstonSalem/Forsyth County community.” This evolution was the result of work by many people and organizations seeking to create a sustainable community collaborative to identify community results and measurable markers of progress (i.e., indicators) and help the community achieve them.

Guiding Principles: The following guiding principles intentionally drive the way Forsyth Futures approaches the body of work:

• Strive to provide equitable access to services, resources and opportunities for all people in Forsyth County.

• Employ strategies and benchmarks that address racial and other disparities in the desired outcomes of the collaborative.

• Nurture and value diversity of background, perspective and approach among our organizations, employees and clients; treat one another and the clients we serve with civility and respect.

• Maximize resources from all sources while minimizing duplication and inefficiency.

• Welcome and respond positively to change, and undertake

continuous improvement and innovation in all we do.

• Share ownership, responsibility, resources and accountability for achieving meaningful, measurable results that improve lives.

Community Results:

In 2006, Forsyth Futures began work to develop a community report that would show the issues community residents believed were important. In order to do this, we collected input from community residents through focus groups, individual interviews and surveys. More than 5,000 residents responded, giving us invaluable information that served as the foundation for the community report.

Data was gathered around more than 41 community issues, and the combination of community input and data was presented to the Board of Forsyth Futures. The Board approved the initiation of the five community results and 41 indicators. This report, Making Progress in Forsyth County, reflects these results and each of the indicators. It also shows our progress on each of these and provides data comparing Forsyth County to North Carolina, the nation and in some cases to other North Carolina communities. The report will be published every year and over time will help our community know how we are doing on each of these indicators.

We Can Do Better 5

Forsyth Futures has formed five Results Teams around each of the results. These teams will be creating community strategic action plans and recruiting community partners from every possible area of the community to help address these identified issues. There is already extraordinary work going on in this community with many institutions, organizations and individual residents.

Forsyth Futures hopes to add value to this work and make the community better able to work collaboratively to ensure that all of Forsyth County residents are: • Economically self-sufficient.

• Achieving educational success.

• Engaged in their community.

• Mentally and physically healthy.

• Safe where they live, work and play.

Making Progress A Message from the Forsyth Futures Board of Directors We wish to thank all those who have worked to establish Forsyth Futures. We especially thank the organizations and residents who partner with us to improve the lives of adults, children and families in our community by closing gaps between groups along racial, gender and economic lines.

Forsyth Futures was created to identify and address desired results and measurable indicators of success that matter to everyone but that no one organization can be responsible for on its own.

Like all communities, we have tough problems to tackle. Modeled after similar collaboratives in other states, Forsyth Futures will work “between the silos” to integrate resources and new solutions. To be effective, such work must include the residents most affected by these problems; traditional leaders and organizations; and business, faith and other sectors of our community. Ideally, our formal collaborative of organizations and leaders will enhance, support and help coordinate (not replace) Forsyth County’s existing strengths.

The indicators discussed in this report present an honest picture, based on the data that can be found, of how we are doing. Progress or lack of progress is not praise or criticism of any one organization. In fact, Forsyth Futures exists because no one organization can accomplish or answer for progress toward the challenges that these indictors represent.

Our release of this first “scorecard” marks the start of our journey. Data about where we stand is absolutely necessary in order to define where we want to go and to know whether progress is being made over time. We know that this work will be difficult and that comprehensive approaches will be needed. Our five results teams will make community-wide recommendations that are workable, designed to make progress toward these critical indicators of success. We already know that new, better integrated services based on national knowledge about “what works” will prove important and that the standard for effective local collaboration must be raised.

New preventive approaches are needed to avoid problems in the first place. Public policies that make these problems worse must be eliminated, and policies that lead to better solutions must be put in place.

Ultimately, Forsyth Futures must listen to the entire community and help develop our collective will to solve challenges that affect us all. We ask for your participation and your honest critique.

We invite you to join us on this journey because, together, we can do better.

Dr. Karen McNeil-Miller Board Chair

Jean Irvin Excutive Director

Board of Directors 2007-2008 Gayle Anderson Dr. Linda Beal Greg Beier* John Berry Deltra Bonner George Bryan Jim DeCristo Matthew Dolge Ron Drago Ray Gardea Lee Garrity* Art Gibel

Richard Gottlieb* Dr. Gary Green Dr. Nathan Hatch Allen Joines Chuck Kraft Dr. Monica Lett Dr. Don Martin* Dr. Karen McNeil-Miller* Dr. Tim Monroe Pat Norris* Chris Oxendine Bob Parker

Mellin Parker Dr. Susan Pauly Len Preslar Joe Raymond* Judge William Reingold Milton Rhodes Sheriff William Schatzman Linda Sutton Betty Taylor Dudley Watts Tamika White Scott Wierman*

We Can Do Better

Organizations Represented on the Forsyth Futures Board 21st Judicial District Arts Council of Winston-Salem and Forsyth County Black Leadership Roundtable CenterPoint Human Services C.H.A.N.G.E. City of Winston-Salem City of Winston-Salem Housing/ Neighborhood Development Forsyth County Forsyth County Department of Social Services Forsyth County Health Department Forsyth County Sheriff’s Office Forsyth Technical Community College Goodwill Industries Hispanic League Kate B. Reynolds Charitable Trust Ministers Conference of Winston-Salem N.C. Department of Corrections N.C. Department of Juvenile Justice NCSA Neighbors For Better Neighborhoods Novant Health, Triad Region NWPCOG Salem College Senior Services Smart Start United Way of Forsyth County Wake Forest University Wake Forest University Baptist Medical Center Winston-Salem Alliance Winston-Salem Chamber of Commerce Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools Winston-Salem Neighborhood Alliance Winston-Salem Police Department YWCA

Executive Director Jean Irvin* Staff Members

Tonya Atkins Karen Davis Olivia Gaddy Camille Hairston

Interns

Tracey Bowen Julie Daniels Melanie Manning BriAnna Walker *Denotes Forsyth Futures Executive Committee Members

6

Making Progress Community Engagement Report The Process Forsyth Futures began work in early 2007 on an annual community indicator report reflecting community progress around results. With the help of more than forty volunteers, we gathered community input, reviewed other community indicator reports and collected community data sources to better understand issues important to community residents about economic selfsufficiency, education, health and safety.

The information collected in the community input and data scan steps was presented to the Board of Directors, who used the input to determine indicators for the report to the community. This report was released to the community in October 2007.

All of Forsyth Futures’ work is driven by seven guiding principles: • Improve equitable access.

• Address racial and other disparities.

• Nurture and value diversity.

• Treat everyone with respect.

• Maximize resources and minimize duplication.

• Encourage continuous improvement and innovation.

• Share ownership and accountability.

Several common issues were identified during the Community Input Process. In addition to the four stated conversation areas of economic self-sufficiency, education, health and safety, community issues were raised about: • Infrastructure (land use/urban sprawl/transportation) • Environment (air/water/green spaces/pollution) • Community engagement (art/ recreation/entertainment/activities) • Government (civil servants/role of government) This input from the community led to the creation of a fifth result, that all Forsyth County residents are engaged in their community.

orsyth Futures began the Community Input Process for two primary reasons: to 1) F shape decision making around developing an indicator report and 2) encourage discussion with residents for future engagement.

Community input was collected through three methods – listening sessions, written surveys and an online survey. Community members were asked to give input on issues that were most important to family and Forsyth County in the areas of education, economic stability, health and safety. The process was not a scientific data collection and was not intended to rank community issues.

Community Engagement Teams (See Acknowledgements) facilitated the listening sessions.

More than 40 community members volunteered many hours to conduct listening sessions and review the data collected. Written surveys were distributed at community meetings, in school mailings and at workplaces. An electronic survey was distributed to community members through community newsletters, media and existing organizational distribution lists.

A second team of community members reviewed the data points, identified a list of common community issues and grouped the common issues into categories for each result.

This community engagement report summarizes more than 20,000 points of data collected from more than 5,000 community residents during community conversations and surveys in early 2007, and it is intended to reflect early learning and observations from listening to Forsyth County residents.

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KEY FINDINGS

The results are inter-related, and many issues and concerns crossed results.

For example: • Education and health issues were raised in conversations about economic stability.

• Safety issues, such as school safety, were raised in conversations about education.

• Education and safety issues were raised in health conversations.

• Economic stability and education issues were raised in safety conversations.

Concerns or issues dealing with specific populations were often expressed. The most frequently identified populations in the responses were: • Children and youth • Ex-offenders • Homeless • Immigrants • Retirees/older adults/elderly • Young adults There are several groups and initiatives in the community already working on many of the identified issues. Further exploration is needed to ensure that connections exist between groups working on the same issues throughout the county and/or between the groups’ work and populations in need.

Section Two

County Profile Forsyth County is located in the Piedmont Region of North Carolina. Moravians traveling from the northeast settled in the area in 1753 and called the land Wachovia after an Austrian estate owned by an early supporter of the Moravians. Bethabara and Bethania were the first towns established, followed

by Salem, which became a central business area for the county. In 1849, Stokes County was divided, and the new county was officially named Forsyth after Colonel Benjamin Forsyth.

The county’s total population in 2005 was 315,856.

Forsyth County has eight incorporated municipalities, with Winston-Salem being the largest municipality in the county, covering 413 square miles. This section provides an overview of Forsyth County’s population, households, business community and faith establishments.

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Making Progress County Profile

Population

To learn more about the residents of Forsyth County and how they live, Forsyth Futures gathered data on aspects of the community such as population, business and employment, household types

and education levels. This information gave us a starting place as we began identifying the areas on which our work should focus.

The graphs below and on the following pages summarize the data collected and are intended as a demographic overview of Forsyth County as we embark on our collaborative efforts to make progress in our community.

2005

315,856

Population by gender 2005 Males

151,586

Females

164,270

Population by age 2005 Under 5

2005 Population

by Gender

2005 Population

by Age

2005 Population

by Race /Ethnicity Hawaiian / Pacific Islander

White

Males Females

American Indian or Alaska Native Black Asian

85+

Hispanic/ Latino Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander

We Can Do Better 9

Total Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

23,332

5 to 9

20,969

10 to 14

22,651

15 to 19

19,631

20 to 24

18,389

25 to 34

45,761

35 to 44

47,603

45 to 54

46,635

55 to 59

20.557

60 to 64

12,667

65 to 74

20,493

75 to 84

13,443

85+

3,725

Median age

36.3

Population by race/ethnicity 2005 White

215,271

Black

80,068

American Indian or Alaska Native

1,525

Asian

4,177

Hawaiian / Pacific Islander

70

Hispanic / Latino

30,574

Making Progress

County Profile

Educational Attainment and Households Population by educational attainment for resdents 25+ 2005

2005 Educational Attainment for Residents 25+

Total residents age 25+

210,884

Ninth grade

13,501

Ninth grade

No diploma

16,587

No diploma

High school graduate

58,993

High school grad

College, no degree

41,901

Associate’s

16,838

Bachelor’s

41,498

Associate’s

Grad or professional

21,566

Bachelor’s

High school or higher

85.7%

BA or higher

29.9%

College, no degree

Grad or professional

Population by percent by household type 2006 Forsyth County Married /couples Male, no wife

2006 Household Types Forsyth County 50

North Carolina United States

46.96 3.69

Female, no husband

14.68

Non-family

34.67

North Carolina Married /couples Male, no wife

49.42 4.31

Female, no husband

13.17

Non-family

33.11

40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS

United States Married /couples

30

Male, no wife

49.74 4.59

Female, no husband

12.47

Non-family

33.20

20

10

0

MARRIED/ COUPLES

MALE/ NO WIFE

FEMALE/ NO HUSBAND

NONFAMILY

We Can Do Better Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

10

Making Progress County Profile

Households and Employment

Income 2005 2005 Income in Forsyth County 50,000

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS

40,000

$10,000-14,999

$9,874

$15,000-24,999

$15,663

$25,000-34,999

$16,121

$35,000-49,999

$21,373

10,000-14,999

$50,000-74,999

$28,416

$75,000-99,999

$14,686

$100,000-149,999

$10,198

$150,000-199,999

$3,394

35,000-49,999

$200,000+ Median Household Income

$45,046

75,000-99,999

100,000-149,999

Per Capita Income

$25,036

50,000-74,999

150,000-199,999

10,000

$9,681

25,000-34,999

20,000

< $10,000

< 10,000

15,000-24,999

30,000

200,000 +

$3,680

Employment by employer size Percent of establishments 2005 Forsyth County

0

Small (0-49 employees)

2005 Percent of Establishments, Employment by Employer Size

5.59

Large (250+ employees)

0.86

North Carolina Small (0-49 employees)

100

Forsyth County North Carolina

80 PERCENT OF EMPLOYMENT

United States 60

40

20

0

SMALL EMPLOYERS

MEDIUM EMPLOYERS

LARGE EMPLOYERS

We Can Do Better 11

93.55

Medium (50-249 employees)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns

94.66

Medium (50-249 employees)

4.65

Large (250+ employees)

0.69

United States Small (0-49 employees)

94.73

Medium (50-249 employees)

4.59

Large (250+ employees)

0.67

Making Progress County Profile

Business Community

Employment by Industry 2007 Forsyth County

Employment Statistics 2005

Age 16 or older commuting

151,613

Place of Work In county of residence Outside county of residence Mean travel time to work (minutes)

120,784 29,895 20.9

Employment Status Population 16+ in labor force Employed

Unemployed

165,525 155,342 9,849

Civilian Labor Force Estimates Labor force

Employed

Unemployed

168,967 161,053 7,914

Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transport /warehouse F.I.R.E. Services Other

4.51% 13.20% 3.20% 11.24% 4.00% 9.16% 54.14% 0.54%

North Carolina Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transport /warehouse F.I.R.E. Services Other

6.18% 13.77% 4.19% 11.61% 2.97% 6.83% 52.70% 1.75%

United States Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transport /warehouse F.I.R.E. Services Other

2007 Employment by Industry

Construction

5.59% 10.35% 4.42% 11.41% 3.97% 7.48% 54.73% 2.04%

Forsyth County North Carolina

Manufacturing

United States

Wholesale trade Retail trade Transport/ Warehouse F.I.R.E.

Services

Other 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Percent Employed

We Can Do Better Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

12

Section Three

Indicators

This report is a collection of community indicators.

Indicators are measures that can give information about how well a community is doing and show how close it is to achieving a result. The five desired results listed in the report are that all Forsyth County residents are: • Economically self-sufficient.

• Achieving educational success.

• Engaged in their community.

• Mentally and physically healthy.

• Safe where they live, work and play.

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Making Progress Indicators F orsyth County residents are economically self-sufficient

he information collected during the T community input phase of our data collection was used to identify issues important to residents in the result areas of economic stability, education, health and safety. This input helped determine needed indicators as well as identify another result – Community Engagement.

affordable homes Net Job Growth Residents below Poverty level residents living Below 200 Percent OF the Poverty Level Forsyth County residents are achieving educational success adult literacy High school graduation k-12 state accountability standards kindergarten readiness

In scanning data, we reviewed indicator reports from other communities, regions and states. The review gave us hundreds of indicators, and the 41 chosen for this report were commonly used to measure progress in the five results.

residents with post-secondary degrees students passing end-of-grade tests during gateway years forsyth county residents are engaged in their community active involvement in civic and volunteer activities attendance rate at public performances/events diverse representation in civic leadership roles

The following factors were used in choosing the indicators:

neighborhood associations number of public performances/events

• Communication Power – Indicator speaks to a broad and diverse audience.

open space public and private support for the arts registered library users

• Value Power – Indicator says something of central importance about the result.

residents safe from pollution (air) residents safe from pollution (water) Residents who vote

• Data Power – Information about the indicator comes from a reliable source and can be reported quickly.

Forsyth county residents are physically and mentally healthy alcohol and illegal substance abuse chronic disease death rate Health coverage infant death obesity Residents who recieve mental health services residents with sexually transmitted diseases (stds) teen pregnancy tobacco use Forsyth county residents are safe where they live, work and play adults entering prison annual crime index Average emergency response time children who are maltreated domestic violence elderly and disabled adults who are maltreated hate crimes juvenile delinquency leading causes of traffic deaths violent acts that occur on school grounds youth in gangs

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Section Four

Forsyth County residents are economically self-sufficient.

Communities are strengthened by residents that are economically self-sufficient. Economic self-sufficiency impacts other aspects of families including health, safety and educational achievements. Building assets, such as savings and homeownership, is a fundamental way out of poverty. To move toward self-sufficiency, residents need the opportunity to secure employment that pays enough to cover expenses, access affordable health care and pursue post-secondary education.

Making Progress

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Making Progress Indicator: Affordable Homes

How Measured: T he Housing Opportunity Index is the percentage of new and existing homes sold that families with middle incomes can afford.

How We Are Doing: A t the end of 2007, Forsyth County ranked fifth in the south and forty-second nationally in major metro communities for homes sold that families with middle incomes can afford. This ranking was based on a median price for homes at $139,000.

What this means: Lack of affordable housing affects individuals and the community.

It keeps middle- and low-income residents from owning homes and creating the wealth that comes from homeownership. It can also keep a community from growing economically, since the availability of affordable housing for employees can influence whether a business moves to the area.

here are both social and economic benefits for individualsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; owning T homes.1 Social benefits include greater happiness for homeowners and greater participation in volunteer and political activities. Children of homeowners are more likely to stay in school, not become teenage parents and have higher test scores in math and reading. Economic benefits include building wealth through homeownership, building more non-housing wealth than renters and living in larger, higherquality housing.

trend DATA Housing Opportunity Index

2006*

2007*

Median Price

131,000

139,000

Housing Opportunity Index Value

76.5

73.3

National Rank**

39

42

4

5

Regional Rank***

*Note: Only one year of data for Winston-Salem is available, as the Metropolitan Statistical Area for Winston-Salem changed in 2006. Prior to 2006, Winston-Salem was combined with Greensboro and High Point.

We Can Do Better

17

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Desired RESULT: Forsyth County residents are economically self-sufficient.

Metropolitan statistical areas are geographic entities defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget for use by federal statistical agencies in collecting, tabulating and publishing federal statistics.

Prior to 2006, Forsyth County was in the Greensboro-Winston-SalemHigh Point, N.C., Metropolitan Statistical Area that included Alamance, Davidson, Davie, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph, Stokes and Yadkin counties. Currently Forsyth County is in the Winston-Salem, N.C., Metropolitan Statistical Area. This area includes Davie, Forsyth, Stokes and Yadkin counties. comparison DATA Housing Opportunity Index median price of homes sold

2006

2007

Forsyth

131,000

139,000

Durham

169,000

178,000

Guilford

141,000

142,000

Mecklenburg 168,000

176,000

Wake

215,000

225,000

1 The Social Benefits and Costs of Homeownership: A Critical Assessment of the Research, October 2001, William M. Rohe, Shannon Van Zandt, George McCarthy; Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University **Number of national statistical areas varies from year to year, but the range is from 106 to 202. *** Number of regional statistical areas varies from year to year based on number of metro statistical areas for southeast (territory from Delaware to Florida to Texas to Kentucky).

16

,

Making Progress

Indicator: Residents Below the Poverty Level

How Measured:

Poverty is determined by a set of income limits used by the Census Bureau. These limits vary by family size and makeup. The set limits for one person were the following for 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively: $8,860, $8,980, $9,310, $9,570 and $9,800.

How We Are Doing: T he percent of people below the poverty level has increased over the last five years from 9.9 percent in 2002 to 13.4 percent in 2006.

What this means: Poverty levels are a sign of a communityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic strength.

Communities with high-wage jobs have lower poverty rates and spend less on public aid programs. Children of people with high-wage jobs are more likely to have health insurance, quality child care and education beyond high school, while children raised in poverty are more likely to be sick, die during childhood, drop out of school and score lower on standardized tests.1 Because of aid such as Social Security and government health insurance, fewer of our elderly live below the poverty line. However, longer life spans and rising health care costs, including prescription drug costs, are forcing more of them to make difficult choices such as whether to pay rent or buy medicine.

Desired RESULT: Forsyth County residents are economically self-sufficient.

comparison DATA Percent of residents below poverty level in past twelve months

2005

2006

Forsyth

14.3

13.4

Durham

12.9

15.6

Guilford

14.9

14.8

Mecklenburg 11.3

11.3

Wake

10.3 9.1

support DATA Percent of families below poverty level

2005

2006

Forsyth

10.7

10.5

North Carolina 11.7

10.7

United States

10.2 9.8

Percent of residents under age 18 below poverty level 2

trend DATA Percent of residents below poverty level

20

PERCENT OF PEOPLE BELOW POVERTY LEVEL

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Forsyth County North Carolina United States

9.9 14.2 12.4

13.1 14.0 12.7

13.0 15.2 13.1

14.3 15.1 13.3

13.4 14.7 13.3

2005

2006

Forsyth

23.1

20.9

North Carolina 21.3

20.2

United States

18.3

18.5

Percent of residents 65 and older below poverty level 3

Forsyth

2005

5.8 8.1

North Carolina 11.7 United States

15

2006

9.9

11.2 9.9

10

Forsyth County North Carolina United States

5

2002

2003

2004 YEAR

2005

2006

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2006 North Carolina Childrenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Index, Action for Children North Carolina 2 American Community Survey 2002-2006: Children under age 18 in poverty 3 American Community Survey 2002-2006: Persons 65 and over living in poverty 1

Source: American Community Survey 2002-2006

Making Progress Indicator: Net Job Growth

How Measured: The difference between the number of jobs in two consecutive years divided by the number from the first year.

Desired RESULT: Forsyth County residents are economically self-sufficient.

comparison DATA Percent of net job growth

How We Are Doing: F orsyth County continues to reflect an economy in transition from the loss of traditional industries. It has shown positive growth in jobs during three of the last five years but still lags behind the state’s two largest urban areas. In 2004-05, Forsyth County registered the third largest increase in job growth among urban areas. However, in 200506, it had the lowest increase in job growth among the state’s major urban counties.

2004-05

2005-06

Forsyth

2.53

0.97

Durham

1.50

4.30

Guilford

1.85

1.78

Mecklenburg

3.09

4.03

Wake

3.91

5.35

What this means: For an economy to be healthy, it is important to create more and more jobs. Communities that keep adding jobs attract and keep both employers and workers. This is good for a community in many ways:

• More tax money coming in.

• More money for people to spend and more to buy with it.

• Fewer people using public support services such as Food Stamps and subsidized housing.

There are many ways to add jobs to a community. These can include:

• More new businesses.

• More education.

• Tax breaks for businesses that bring in jobs.

• Improvements such as technology and roads. trend DATA Percent of net job growth

2001-02

Forsyth County North Carolina United States

-1.48 -1.42 -1.08

2002-03 2003-04 -1.75 -0.86 -0.34

0.56 1.57 1.16

2004-05 2005-06 2.53 2.09 1.77

0.97 2.82 1.72

3.0 2.5

PERCENT OF NET JOB GROWTH

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Forsyth County

-0.5 -1.0

North Carolina

-1.5 -2.0

United States 200102

200203

200304 YEAR

200405

200506

We Can Do Better

Source: U.S. Census Bureau: County Business Patterns, Total Employees 1999-2005

18

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Making Progress

Indicator: Residents Living Below 200 Percent of the Poverty Level

Desired RESULT: Forsyth County residents are economically self-sufficient.

According to research 1 on low-income working families:

How Measured: N umber of people with incomes below 200 percent of the poverty level.

How We Are Doing: A household of four making $40,000 or less is at 200 percent of the poverty level. In 2006, more than 30.6 percent of Forsyth County residents lived below 200 percent of the poverty level. This was a slight increase over the 29.8 percent in 2005 but slightly down from the 31 percent in 2004. Forsyth County’s rate has stayed below the state average in each of the three years but almost the same as the national average over the three-year period.

• 40 percent of minority working families are low-income, twice the percentage of their white counterparts.

• One third of children in working families are low-income.

• 35 percent have a parent who did not complete high school.

What this means: An income of at least 200 percent of the poverty level is needed to maintain a decent standard of living, according to research. For people living below this level, various government programs offer support for daily needs on items such as childcare, food, health, housing and education.

• They represent one in four working families.

• 42 percent have a parent with some education after high school.

trategies for preventing poverty focus on job development and S building wealth through means such as homeownership. People who become better educated and skilled are more likely to be employed and to earn more. Ways of building wealth include reducing debt, building savings or owning a home, and providing public assistance programs for families.

• More than half spend more than a third of their income on housing.

• More than a third have a parent without health insurance.

• Two thirds of families headed by single mothers spend 40 percent of their income on childcare.

Comparison DATA

trend DATA Percent of residents below 200 percent of the poverty level

PERCENT OF RESIDENTS BELOW 200 PERCENT OF POVERTY

40

2004

2005

2006

Forsyth County

31.0

29.8

30.6

North Carolina

35.7

34.9

33.8

United States

30.9

31.2

30.4

Percent of residents below 200 percent of the poverty level

2005

2006

Forsyth

29.8

30.6

Durham

32.1

32.6

Guilford

32.8

31.6

Mecklenburg 28.6

26.6

Wake

21.3

22.8

Support DATA 35

200 percent of the federal poverty level guidelines by family size

30

Forsyth County

2005

2006

North Carolina

1

19,140

19,600

2

25,660

26,400

3

32,180

33,200

4

38,700

40,000

5

45,220

46,800

6

51,740

53,600

United States

25

2004

2005

2006

YEAR

We Can Do Better 19

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

1 Working Hard, Falling Short: America’s Working Families and the Pursuit of Economic Security, Working Poor Families Project, a national initiative of the Annie E. Casey, Ford and Rockefeller Foundations, March 2004

Section Five

Forsyth County residents are achieving educational success There is a direct relationship between an individualâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s education and his or her employment opportunities, earning ability, health and lifestyle choices, such as substance abuse. Communities whose residents are better educated attract and retain better-paying jobs, have lower crime rates and have more socially and civically active residents.

Making Progress

We Can Do Better 20

Making Progress

Indicator: Adult Literacy How Measured: T his indicator is not currently measured at the county level. Work will be conducted in the coming months to better understand the community status around this indicator.

How We Are Doing: Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

What this means: It is estimated that more than 20 percent of adults in the United States read at or below the fifth-grade level. Literacy impacts families and communities in various ways. Children’s success in school improves as parents’ education levels improve. Adults with higher literacy levels generally earn higher incomes and are more likely to be employed, and employers see increased productivity in employees as education levels improve. Civic and community involvement, such as volunteering and voting, is more likely by adults with higher literacy levels.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County residents are achieving educational success.

According to the North Carolina Literacy Resource Center of Forsyth County, more than 46,000 adults in Forsyth County are at the lowest level of literacy proficiency, Level 1.

As defined by the National Adult Literacy Survey, Level 1 literacy indicates an ability to complete the following tasks on three literary scales, which are prose, document and quantitative: • Prose literacy - Locate a single piece of information stated in short text.

• Document literacy - Locate or enter specific information on a form.

• Quantitative literacy - Perform single, simple, specified arithmetic operations from numbers provided.

Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

We Can Do Better 21

Source: Literacy in Everyday Life - Results from the 2003 National Assessment of Adult Literacy. U.S. Department of Education, April 2007.

Making Progress Indicator: High School Graduation

How Measured: T he percent of ninth graders who graduate from high school within five years.

How We Are Doing: T oo many of our young people do not finish high school. In 2006-07, 77.3 percent of the class graduated. This means that about one out of four did not graduate.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County residents are achieving educational success.

COMPARISON DATA Annual percent of ninth graders who graduate within five years 2

Forsyth

What this means: When students do not graduate from high school, this causes long-lasting problems for our community. Compared to high school graduates, people without a high school education are1:

• More likely to be unemployed, sick, poor or on public assistance and to have children who do not graduate from high school.

• More than twice as likely to become poor in a single year.

• More than eight times as likely to be in jail or prison.

• Less likely to vote or be active in the community.

• Making $9,200 less per year than someone who finished high school.

2006-2007 77.3

Durham

71.2

Guilford

75.5

Mecklenburg

75.4

Wake

84.9

Annual percent of ninth graders who graduate within five years

2006-2007

Forsyth County

77.3

North Carolina

70.3

The Silent Epidemic, Perspectives of High School Dropouts, a report by Civic Enterprises in association with Peter D. Hart Research Associates and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, March 2006 2 North Carolina Department of Instruction, 2006 Four-Year Cohort Graduation Rates Report 22 1

Note: Due to changes in the way high school graduation rates in 2005-06 were computed, we do not have historical data to compare this to.

We Can Do Better Source: North Carolina Department of Instruction: North Carolina Schools Report Card

Making Progress

Indicator: K-12 State Accountability Standards

How Measured: Percent of schools that made expected growth during the year.

What this means: North Carolina’s school accountability program, The ABCs of Public Education, has three primary goals: strengthen local school accountability, emphasize mastery of basic skills and provide as much local decision making as possible. The ABCs program began in 1996-97 and has been modified to meet requirements for the current National Accountability program, No Child Left Behind.

Forsyth County residents are achieving educational success.

COMPARISON DATA

How We Are Doing: M easuring both growth and performance is important in evaluating schools. Performance looks at students’ scores for a given year, and growth measures the change in academic achievement by a school for a given year.

Forsyth County students’ growth has been below the state averages in each of the last five years, and it has also consistently been below the growth of the other urban counties in the state.

desired RESULT:

Annual percent of schools that made expected growth1

2005- 2006

20062007

Forsyth

29

54

Durham

51

49

Guilford

45

73

Mecklenburg

53

66

Wake

79

85

easuring individual school performance is important because it provides M information to students, parents and the community; uses data to promote continuous improvement; and identifies achievement gaps. Since school accountability programs have been implemented, federal, state and local governments have increased funding to school systems.2

trend DATA Annual percent of schools that made expected growth 2002- 2003

Forsyth County North Carolina

89 95

2003- 2004

2004- 2005

61 75

56 69

2005- 20062006 2007 29 54

54 72

PERCENT OF SCHOOLS WITH EXPECTED GROWTH

100

80

60

40 Forsyth County

20

North Carolina 2002 -2003

2003 -2004

2004 -2005 YEAR

23

2005 -2006

2006 -2007

We Can Do Better Source: North Carolina Department of Instruction

New end-of-grade math tests were implemented, and higher standards were established for proficiency.

2 2006 North Carolina Children’s Index, Action for Children North Carolina 1

Making Progress Indicator: Kindergarten Readiness

How Measured: Scores on the first Kindergarten Assessment.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County residents are achieving educational success.

How are students assessed in the K-2 Assessments?

How We Are Doing: D ata for this indicator are currently being developed. K-2 Assessments are conducted every quarter beginning at a kindergartnerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s second quarter and ending with a second graderâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s last quarter (11 quarters in total). Students are evaluated on four levels (1-4). Data have been collected and held centrally by the county for several years, and starting this year individual scores are being compiled to provide a county- wide overview.

What this means: Because childrenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s brains develop rapidly during the first five years, early childhood education is important. Children who enter kindergarten ready to learn perform better on tests early in school and are more likely to graduate from high school. Children who complete preschool programs are more advanced and more ready to start kindergarten than children not enrolled in preschool programs. Research demonstrates a return in investment of seven dollars for every dollar invested in a highquality early childhood program. The direct and indirect returns result from several factors, including reduced spending by school districts on remedial programs and increased wage earnings for adults who completed preschool programs.

Students are rated on the K-2 Assessments at achievement levels I through IV in the same manner as the North Carolina End of Grade Tests.

Levels III and IV are considered at or above grade level, respectively. The North Carolina Department of Public Instruction categorizes student performance into four levels: Level I Insufficient mastery of knowledge and skills in this subject area to be successful at the next grade level.

Level II Inconsistent mastery of knowledge and skills that are fundamental in this subject area; skills are minimally sufficient for success at the next grade level.

Level III Consistent demonstration of mastery of grade-level subject matter; well prepared for the next grade.

Level IV

Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

Consistent performance in a superior manner clearly beyond that required for proficiency with grade-level work.

We Can Do Better Source: Kindergarten Assessments

24

Making Progress

Indicator: Residents with Post-Secondary Degrees

How Measured: T he Census Bureau tracks the percent of people 25 years and over who have earned degrees beyond high school each year.

How We Are Doing: I n Forsyth County, the percentage of people with at least an associate’s degree has stayed above both the state and national averages over the last five years. In 2006, 38 percent of Forsyth County residents held an associate’s degree or higher, compared to the state average of 33 percent and the national average of 34 percent.

What this means: In today’s economy it is more important for people to be better educated, and this demand is expected to increase. People with degrees beyond high school have higher incomes and are less likely to be unemployed.

Communities with better-educated residents attract and keep higher paying jobs, are more likely to create jobs through new business, have higher consumer buying power and higher tax revenues, and have less use of public assistance programs.

hanging population traits are expected to affect education levels C across the United States.1 The gap in need for residents with postsecondary training is expected to widen over the next few years due to two main changes: • Well-educated baby boomers will age and retire.

• There will be fewer younger workers moving into the workforce. Also, the younger workforce is more racially and ethnically diverse, with more people from groups that have not had access to education after high school in the past. trend DATA Percent of residents with associate’s degrees or higher

Forsyth County North Carolina United States

PERCENT OF RESIDENTS WITH POST-SECONDARY DEGREES

50

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

— — 33

— — 34

42 32 34

38 33 35

38 33 34

desired RESULT: Forsyth County residents are achieving educational success.

comparison DATA Percent of residents with associate’s degrees or higher

2005

2006

Forsyth

38

38

Durham

32

31

Guilford

26

27

Mecklenburg 31

30

Wake

35

36

support DATA Number of residents with graduate/professional degrees

2005

2006

Forsyth

21,566

22,089

Durham

29,310

28,380

Guilford

25,520

29,596

Mecklenburg 58,004

65,212

Wake

79,371

76,452

Percent of residents with bachelor’s degrees or higher

2005

2006

Forsyth

30

31

Durham

43

41

Guilford

32

32

Mecklenburg 39

38

Wake

46

48

40

Forsyth County North Carolina United States 30

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

YEAR

We Can Do Better 25

Adult Learners in Higher Education: Barriers to Success and Strategies to Improve Results. U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration Occasional Paper 2003-03 prepared by Jobs for the Future, Eduventure and FutureWorks 1

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

Making Progress

Indicator: Students Passing End-of-Grade Tests During Gateway Years

How Measured: P ercentage of students’ scores at or above grade level during gateway years (third, fifth and eighth grades). Students are required to meet statewide standards for promotion in grades 3, 5 and 8. These gateways are designed to ensure that students are working at grade level before moving on to the next grade.

How We Are Doing: T he percentage of Forsyth County’s third, fifth and eighth graders’ scores on the end-of-the-grade tests has stayed below the state average in both reading and math. The percent of students passing the end-of-grade tests between the third and eighth grades has stayed relatively similar each year, while the percent passing the end-of-grade math tests is consistently lower for eighth graders compared to third graders.

What this means: Beginning with the third grade, students are measured on year-end school performance in math, reading and writing. These three areas are core foundation areas on which other learning is based. The gateway years are defined at third, fifth and eighth grades. The third-grade year is a gateway year because it is the first year for year-end student testing. Fifth and eighth grades were chosen because they are years at which a student moves on to the next level of education.

easuring progress at each of these levels is important to identifying at-risk M students1 and supporting them through programs that help them perform at their grade level. According to state data, more students have been performing well at their grade level since these standards were put in place.

trend DATA Percent of students passing end-of-grade tests in Forsyth County

Grade 3 math

Grade 5 math

Grade 8 math

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

78.0 83.1 85.5

76.5 84.5 82.3

80.1 87.1 84.3

81.5 86.7 85.7

80.0 85.7 84.1

78.7 87.5 84.9

Grade 5

Grade 3

74.2 87.6 78.9

85.9 90.7 79.7

83.1 87.7 80.1

67.7 63.8 57.5

70.0 68.7 60.5

2001-02

2001-02

2002-03

2002-03

2003-04

2003-04

2004-05

2004-05

2005-06

2005-06 2006-07

Grade 8

2006-07

Grade 8

0

83.5 88.7 77.3

Grade 3

Grade 3 reading

Grade 5 reading

Grade 8 reading

2001-02

Grade 5

20

40

60

80

PERCENT OF STUDENTS PASSING READING

100

0

20

40

60

80

desired RESULT: Forsyth County residents are achieving educational success.

comparison DATA Percent of students passing grade 3 end-of-grade reading tests

2005 -2006

2006 -2007

Forsyth

80.0

78.7

Durham

75.0

79.1

Guilford

81.4

79.2

Mecklenburg

84.0

81.5

Wake

87.7

86.7

North Carolina

82.9

81.8

Percent of students passing grade 8 end-of-grade reading tests

2005 -2006

2006 -2007

Forsyth

84.1

84.9

Durham

80.2

80.4

Guilford

86.0

88.2

Mecklenburg

83.3

85.0

Wake

91.0

91.1

North Carolina

86.9

87.9

Percent of students passing grade 3 end-of-grade math tests

2005 -2006

2006 -2007

Forsyth

67.7

70.0

Durham

56.8

61.5

Guilford

67.3

70.1

Mecklenburg

69.7

70.1

Wake

77.0

78.3

North Carolina

67.8

70.8

Percent of students passing grade 8 end-of-grade math tests

2005 -2006

2006 -2007

Forsyth

57.5

60.5

Durham

50.9

48.9

Guilford

57.4

64.4

Mecklenburg

61.8

63.2

Wake

71.8

73.1

North Carolina

60.7

65.1

100

PERCENT OF STUDENTS PASSING MATH

Source: North Carolina Department of Education

1 A new end-of-grade math test was implemented in 2005-06 based on the revised Standard Course of Study.

26

Section Six

Forsyth County residents are engaged in their community.

Communities are stronger when their residents feel engaged. With a sense of ownership of their community, residents work harder to make it a nice place to live through activities such as voting, volunteer work, event attendance and participation in neighborhood associations. In this way, positive change and growth are made possible because people who take pride in their community are making their voices heard.

Making Progress

We Can Do Better

27

Making Progress

Indicator: Active Involvement in Civic and Volunteer Activities

How Measured: T hese data represent the percent of respondents indicating “Yes” to the question “Do you volunteer?” on the U.S. Census Current Population Survey.

Forsyth County Residents are engaged in their community.

COMPARISON DATA Percent of residents who volunteer

How We Are Doing: F orsyth County residents have reported lower rates of volunteering in 2005 and 2006 than the three years prior. In 2006, one in four residents reported volunteering during the year. However, Forsyth County residents consistently have slightly higher rates for volunteering than the state and national rates.

What this means: Social interaction and involvement in a community affect residents’ sense of community engagement both civically and personally. Interaction and involvement in civic and volunteer activities can help form positive connections between individuals and social groups. Communities with more of these connections are found to have higher education levels, better performing government, faster economic growth and less crime and violence. The people living in these communities are likely to be happier and healthier and to have a longer life expectancy.

2005

2006

Forsyth

22.41

26.49

Durham

-

-

Guilford

-

-

Mecklenburg 30.65

32.43

Wake

20.13

29.85

SUPPORT DATA The Winston-Salem Foundation participated in a national benchmark study on social capital. The study was conducted in both 2000 and 2006.

Seven hundred and fifty community members participated in the study in Forsyth County each year. Below are the responses to questions related to volunteerism:

In the past 12 months, have you worked on a community project? trend DATA Percent of residents who volunteer

Yes No Forsyth 2000

36.0%

64.0%

36.0%

64.0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Forsyth 2006

Forsyth County North Carolina United States

38.16 22.74 25.42

39.24 23.44 26.86

40.98 30.47 27.03

22.41 27.61 26.92

26.49 24.41 25.03

U.S. 2000

36.9%

63.1%

U.S. 2006

34.0%

65.6%

50

PERCENT OF RESIDENTS WHO VOLUNTEER

desired RESULT:

Number of times volunteered in past 12 months: 40

30

Forsyth County

2003

2004

2005

5+

Forsyth 2000

66.5%

32.4%

Forsyth 2006

57.0%

42.8%

National 2000 64.3%

35.6%

National 2006 60.6%

38.8%

United States 2002

0-4

Number of times volunteered in past 12 months:

North Carolina

20

2006

YEAR

We Can Do Better Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

0

Forsyth 2000

47.6%

Forsyth 2006

35.2%

National 2000 45.7% National 2006 40.8%

28

Making Progress

Indicator: Attendance Rate at Public Performances and Events

How Measured: T his measure is the estimated attendance at events held at the Winston-Salem Entertainment-Sport Complex and the Stevens Center.

The following venues are included: Stevens Center, Joel Coliseum, Joel Coliseum Theatre, Coliseum Annex, Ernie Shore Field and Bowman Gray Stadium.

How We Are Doing: M ore than 1.3 million people attended events in 2006 hosted by the Winston-Salem Entertainment – Sports Complex and Stevens Center.

This was slightly lower than estimated attendance in 2005 but higher than any year prior to 2005.

What this means: Attendance at public performances and events benefits both communities and residents. Arts and cultural events and activities can be important community-building activities and can include dance, theatre, visual arts and sports. Performances can be a component of youth development programs, and they can tell stories or share points of view to support community organizing around important issues.1 Attending performances helps people build connections with others in the community, as it increases their understanding of new cultures and social groups.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are engaged in their community.

SUPPORT DATA Forsyth County was one of 91 communities that participated in the Arts & Economic Prosperity2 study published in 2003. The study reviewed expenditure data from 3,000 arts organizations and 40,000 arts attendees in 91 communities across 34 states. Thirty-six non-profit arts organizations in Forsyth County participated in the study.

According to the report, 1.6 million attendees attended arts events in 2000. In addition: •7 6.9 percent of these attendees were local (reside in Forsyth County).

• 2 3.1 percent of these attendees were non-local.

• A ttendees spent a total of $27 million.

trend DATA Estimated attendance for Forsyth County

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

1,172,608

1,287,000

1,210,603

1,360,730

1,332,907

1,500,000

• A ttendees, on average, spent $16.47 per person, per event, not including cost of admission.

• $11.03 on average was spent by local attendees.

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF ATTENDEES

• $ 34.56 on average was spent by non-local attendees.

1,200,000

Forsyth County 900,000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

*Note: Entertainment-Sports Complex data methodology is different from 1999-2004 to 2005-06, as there was a merger of operations in 2004.

We Can Do Better 29

Culture Counts in Communities: A Framework for Measurement, The Urban Institute, 2002

1

YEAR

Source: City of Winston-Salem, Entertainment-Sports Complex

2 Arts & Economic Prosperity: The Economic Impact of Nonprofit Arts Organizations and Their Audiences, Americans for the Arts, 2003

Making Progress

Indicator: Diverse Representation in Civic Leadership Roles

How Measured: B ased on the percent of all elected officials elected to Forsyth County municipal and county positions filled as of January of each calendar year.

How We Are Doing: D iversity in leadership, as measured by race and gender, has varied over the last nine years. The percent of minorities in leadership positions was 15 percent in 2008. This was up from 2006 but down from the eight-year high of 18 percent in 2003 and 2004. Female representation in 2008 was 33 percent. This was down from 2007, but prior to 2007 the trend was consistently upward from a low of 24 percent in 2000 and 2001.

What this means: Diversity in elected leadership positions, including boards, commissions and councils at local and state levels, helps make a community more accepting and reflective of the diverse community the leadership serves. Diverse leadership, including diversity of race, religion, ethnicity, gender, age, sexual orientation and physical ability, make decisions based on different backgrounds and levels of understanding about the populations. The diverse leadership also has the ability to connect with more residents and reflect their views during important decision-making processes.

Percent of gender diversity in civic leadership 2005

2006

2007

2008

30.0 70.0

31.0 69.0

35.0 65.0

37.0 63.0

33.0 67.0

Minority White

PERCENT OF GENDER DIVERSITY IN CIVIC LEADERSHIP

Female Male

2004

White

AfricanAmerican

Forsyth 2000

16.9%

15.9%

Forsyth 2006

18.1%

23.5%

National 2000 19.3%

18.5%

National 2006 15.9%

19.4%

Percent of residents who served as an officer or on a committee of an organization in the past year by income:

$30,000- >$75,000 $74,999

18.0 82.0

8.0 92.0

8.0 92.0

15.4 84.6

15.0 85.0

Forsyth 2000

15.8%

28.1%

Forsyth 2006

19.2%

30.8%

National 2000 20.8%

27.2%

National 2006 16.2%

25.8%

<$30,000

Forsyth 2000

5.9%

Forsyth 2006

8.6%

National 2000 13.4%

30

2007

Percent of residents who served as an officer or on a committee of an organization in the past year by race:

2008

Female 2006

The Winston-Salem Foundation participated in a national benchmark study on social capital, conducted in both 2000 and 2006. Seven hundred and fifty community members participated in the study in Forsyth County each year. Below are responses to selected questions in that study connected to diversity in leadership:

2007

Male

2005

SUPPORT DATA

2006

50

2004

their community.

2005

70

40

Residents are engaged in

2004

80

60

Forsyth County

National 2006 9.6%

2008

YEAR PERCENT OF MINORITY DIVERSITY IN CIVIC LEADERSHIP

trend DATA Percent of minority diversity in civic leadership

desired RESULT:

100 80 60

White

40 20

Minority

0

2004

2005

2006 YEAR

2007

2008

We Can Do Better

Source: Forsyth County Election Results, Forsyth County Voter Registration Database

30

Making Progress Indicator: Neighborhood Associations

How Measured: A measurement for this indicator is currently being developed.

How We Are Doing: I t is estimated that more than 100 neighborhood associations and/or groups may exist across the county. However, it is not known how many of these associations are active at present.

What this means: A neighborhood association is a group of neighbors who come together to sustain and improve the feeling of community engagement in a neighborhood. Neighborhood organizations can add value by:

• Advocating for neighborhood improvements such as needed lighting, roads, sidewalks, etc.

• Influencing land use such as determining the location of new schools, shopping or roads.

• Preserving historic districts.

• Dealing with crime.

Neighborhood associations can also make communities better by bringing

residents together to meet and learn about one another and to work together for common causes.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are engaged in their community.

SUPPORT DATA The Winston-Salem Foundation participated in a national benchmark study on social capital, conducted in both 2000 and 2006. Seven hundred and fifty community members participated in the study in Forsyth County each year.

Below are responses to selected questions in that study connected to neighborhood associations and participation.

Have you worked with others in your neighborhood to make improvements?

Yes No Forsyth 2000

29.0%

Forsyth 2006

33.0%

71.0% 67.0%

U.S. 2000

31.1%

68.90%

U.S. 2006

31.90%

67.90%

Don’t know

-

0.10%

Do you participate in your neighborhood association?

Yes No Forsyth 2000

26.70%

73.30%

Forsyth 2006

29.30%

70.70%

U.S. 2000

23.30%

76.70%

U.S. 2006

20.50%

79.40%

Known neighborhood associations1:

Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

Bethania

1

Clemmons

16

Lewisville

10

Kernersville

15

Rural Hall

4

Tobaccoville

0

Walkertown No report Winston-Salem 106

We Can Do Better Data provided by Forsyth County municipalities.

1

31

Making Progress

Indicator: Number of Public Performances and Events

How Measured: T his measure is the total number of bookings at the Winston-Salem Entertainment-Sport Complex and the Stevens Center. The following venues are included: Stevens Center, Joel Coliseum, Joel Coliseum Theatre, Coliseum Annex, Ernie Shore Field and Bowman Gray Stadium.

How We Are Doing: T he number of events held at several Winston-Salem entertainment facilities varied over the last five years. A spike in the number of events occurred in 2005.

What this means: Residentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; sense of community engagement is affected by attending and experiencing many different entertainment events. Variety in the type of events and performances helps communities serve residentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; varying entertainment interests such as sports, arts and popular culture.

Communities with strong art, culture and entertainment activities have been shown to have stronger economic development by adding jobs in arts, tourism and hospitality industries as well as adding to the tax base. Events not only create income for the performers but also generate income for local restaurants, hotels and retail stores, as event patrons often spend money for these services when attending arts and entertainment events.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are engaged in their community

According to the Arts & Economic Prosperity 1 study, local spending by nonprofit arts organizations in 2000 was $49.6 million. This included salaries, supplies, contracted services and acquiring assets, resulting in 1,749 fulltime equivalent jobs generating $45.2 million in resident household income, $1,069,000 in local government revenue and $2,685,000 in state government revenue.

trend DATA Estimated bookings for Forsyth County

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

210

319

277

366

328

400

NUMBER OF BOOKINGS

350

300

250

200

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

YEAR

*Note: Entertainment-Sports Complex data methodology is different from 1999-2004 to 2005-06 as there was a merger of operations in 2004.

We Can Do Better

Source: Entertainment-Sports Complex and Stevens Center Winston-Salem

1 Arts & Economic Prosperity: The Economic Impact of Nonprofit Arts Organizations and Their Audiences, Americans for the Arts, 2003

Making Progress Indicator: Open Space

How Measured: T otal amount of open space (farmland, parks and greenways) in Forsyth County divided by total number of acres.

How We Are Doing: Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

What this means: Open space is space in the community that is set aside for public or private use and left natural. Open space can include parks and recreational facilities, walking and biking trails, community gardens and wooded areas. Open space provides ecological, environmental and social benefit such as1:

• Ecological – It provides habitats for wildlife, trees that absorb pollution and open land to absorb water, as well as heat produced from buildings and asphalt. It reduces noise pollution by providing barriers through trees and shrubs.

• Environmental – Open space reduces water consumption, solid waste consumption and storm water runoff by lowering the number of households producing waste.

• Social – Parks, community gardens and other open spaces provide places for residents to gather, meet one another and work together.

• Health – Walking and biking trails, parks and other open spaces give residents places to exercise.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are engaged in their community.

SUPPORT DATA The City-County Planning Board began tracking open space in the Legacy Report. The most recent update of this data was completed in 2005, when the following open space acres were recorded in Forsyth County.

Parks

7,200 acres

(Municipal parks and school property available for public recreation use)

Open space

1,921 acres

(Natural areas, protected environmental farmland, farmland)

Greenways

26 miles

(Corridors of undeveloped land preserved for recreational use or environmental protection)

Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

We Can Do Better 33

Source: Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Planning Board

1 Evaluating the Economic Impact of Community Open Space and Urban Forest: A Literature Review, Nanette Nelson, The University of Georgia, Institute of Ecology, 2004

Making Progress

Indicator: Public and Private Support for the Arts

How Measured: A nnual donations to The Arts Council of Winston-Salem and Forsyth County.

Forsyth County Residents are engaged in their community.

SUPPORT DATA

How We Are Doing: T he Arts Council of Winston-Salem and Forsyth Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s purpose is to raise funds for area arts organizations, promote the arts and create an environment where arts enrich the lives of residents. Each year The Arts Council raises funds to support many arts organizations and initiatives. Annual donations to The Arts Council steadily decreased from 2000 to 2004 but have increased over the last four years from $1,653,110 to $2,500,000.

desired RESULT:

What this means: Sustaining money for the arts is important to helping communities grow, and this money can be found in many sources including public donations, private donations and money earned from event attendance.

Arts organizations receive most of their funding through earned income sources (such as ticket sales, sponsorships and fund-raising events).

Most of the other funding comes through private donations from individuals, foundations and corporations1. A small percentage comes from local, state and federal government sources..

North Carolina legislative statewide appropriation for state grants in the arts (This does not include operating support or federal grants).

FY03-04

$3,662,010

FY04-05

$3,678,500

FY05-06

$4,654,633

FY06-07

$4,654,633

FY07-08

$6,654,633

Amount of North Carolina state funds granted for projects taking place in Forsyth County: FY03-04

$212,796

FY04-05

$223,574

FY05-06

$294,131

trend DATA Forsyth County giving history/donations 2003 1,802,277

2004

1,653,110

2005

2006

2007

2,201,498

2,212,585

2,500,000

AMOUNT OF DONATIONS

2,500,000

2,000,000

Forsyth County 1,500,000

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

YEAR

We Can Do Better Source: The Arts Council of Winston-Salem and Forsyth County

1 Americans for the Arts National Arts Policy Roundtable 2006 Final Report, The Future of Private Sector Giving to the Arts in America, Americans for the Arts, 2006

34

Making Progress Indicator: Registered Library Users

How Measured: P ercent of total county population that has received an identification number through the library system.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are engaged in their community.

comparISON DATA Percent of registered library users

How We Are Doing: T he percent of Forsyth County residents that are registered library users has fallen over the last five years from 57 percent in 2001-02 to 52 percent in 2005-06. However, the state percentage grew during the same five-year period from 49 percent in 200102 to 53 percent in 2005-06. Comparing percent of population registered as library users in 2006 to other major metropolitan counties, Forsyth County’s percent is higher than Durham and Wake Counties’, at 46 percent, but lower than Guilford and Mecklenburg Counties’, at 60 percent and 79 percent, respectively.

What this means: Public libraries are community resources that help people in many ways including gathering information, building connections among social groups and individuals, and providing equitable access. Public libraries provide residents with multiple ways to get information through books, Internet access and reference tools. Students can use these tools to support their learning, and businesses can use business reference tools to enhance their strategies. Residents can use the resources to increase learning through research and reading. Libraries also provide community rooms in which residents can meet. By offering these resource tools, libraries make information available to everyone.

52

52

Durham

53

46

Guilford

54

60

Mecklenburg

72

79

Wake

51

46

Support data Rate of circulation per population

2001- 2002- 2003- 2002 2003 2004

Forsyth County North Carolina

PERCENT OF REGISTERED LIBRARY USERS

60

57 49

53 50

57 51

2004- 20052005 2006 52 51

52 53

50

Forsyth County

40

North Carolina 2001-02

2002-03

2003-04 YEAR

2004-05

2005-06

We Can Do Better 35

Source: State Library of North Carolina, North Carolina Public Library Statistics

2004- 2005

20052006

Forsyth

4.69

3.97

Durham

4.05

4.60

Guilford

3.55

3.62

Mecklenburg

7.35

5.74

10.04

10.61

4.40

4.34

North Carolina

20052006

Forsyth

Wake

trend DATA Percent of registered library users

2004- 2005

Making Progress

Indicator: Residents Safe from Pollution (Air)

How Measured: T he number of days air quality is in “healthy” (good and moderate) ranges on Air Quality Index divided by the total number of days monitored in the calendar year.

How We Are Doing: F orsyth County’s air quality has improved since the late 1990s. In 2006, 98.36 percent of the days measured in the healthy (good and moderate) range on the Air Quality Index. Only six days out of 365 days had readings in the unhealthy range, compared to 17 out of 365 days in 1999. Forsyth County’s air quality in 2006 was similar to the air quality of Durham, Guilford and Wake counties. When compared to Mecklenburg County’s air quality, Forsyth County’s is consistently healthier. Looking again at 2006, Forsyth County had only six out of 365 days with unhealthy readings, while Mecklenburg County had 11 out of 365 days with unhealthy readings.

Forsyth County Residents are engaged in their community.

COMPARISON DATA Percent of healthy days (Air Quality Index rating)

2005

2006

Forsyth

99.45

98.36

Durham

99.71

99.72

Guilford

98.90

98.52

Mecklenburg

96.44

96.99

Wake

97.81

99.73

What this means: Pollution in the air can have harmful effects on residents. It is caused when physical, chemical, biological or radioactive substances enter the air and make it impure. Air pollution,1 both indoor and outdoor, can come from cars, homes, the production of energy from oil and coal sources, and natural causes such as fires. Poor air quality can cause breathing problems, coughing, reduced lung function and increased asthma symptoms.

trend DATA Percent of healthy days (Air Quality Index rating)

2002 95.34

2003

98.36

2004

2005

2006

99.45

99.45

98.36

100

95 PERCENT OF HEALTHY DAYS

desired RESULT:

90

85

Forsyth County 80

2002

2003

2004 YEAR

2005

2006

We Can Do Better

Source: Forsyth County Environmental Affairs Department North Carolina Division of Air Quality

Environmental EnvironmentalProtection ProtectionAgency Agency

117

36

Making Progress

Indicator: Residents Safe from Pollution (Water)

How Measured: A measure for this indicator is currently being developed.

How We Are Doing: Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

What this means: Pollution in water refers to water that contains materials making it unsuitable for use. It is caused when physical, chemical, biological or radioactive substances enter the water and make it impure. Water pollution1 can come from industry, people or accidents such as oil spills. Poor water quality can produce acid rain and can harm plants and animals living in water systems. It also can limit drinking water availability or cause increased costs for cities when treating water for local residentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; daily use.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are engaged in their community.

Support DATA The North Carolina Division of Water Quality periodically rates water sources to determine if they are supporting their uses (i.e., water supply, swimming, fishing, etc). Ratings were conducted in 2000 and 2003 for some water sources in Forsyth County. Below are the miles of steams classified as impaired (only partially supporting or not supporting their uses):

Year

Miles

2000

13.4

2003

27.2

Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

We Can Do Better 37

Source: Forsyth County Environmental Affairs Department North Carolina Division of Air Quality

1

Environmental Protection Agency

Making Progress Indicator: Residents Who Vote

Forsyth County Residents are engaged in their community.

COMPARISON DATA

How Measured: V oter turnout is the percentage of registered voters who vote during general elections1.

How We Are Doing: V oter turnout in Forsyth County is similar to many communities in which municipal elections, held in odd-numbered years, attract fewer voters than county, state and federal elections, held in evennumbered years. For example, Forsyth County turnout in the 2004 presidential election was 66.9%, more than five times the turnout of 12.3% for the 2005 municipal elections. The county’s voter turnout is generally higher during presidential elections (2004); county, state and federal elections; and elections when special issues such as school bonds or general improvement bonds generate additional county voter participation.

desired RESULT:

What this means: Voting is an indicator of civic participation. Voting gives residents the opportunity to select community decision makers who influence their lives. While county, state and federal elections generally have higher voter participation, it is the local municipal elected officials whose decisions most often impact our daily lives. Decisions on fire and police protection, environmental issues, health care, social services and a variety of community and quality of life services are made at the local level.

Local elected officials also determine property tax rates and building and zoning codes.

Percent of registered voters voting in county, state and federal general elections

2002

2006

Forsyth

50.0

39.3

Durham

52.8

39.1

Guilford

42.3

30.1

Mecklenburg 46.0

30.0

Wake

40.5

55.5

Percent of registered voters voting in municipal general elections

2003

2005

Forsyth

15.0

12.3

Durham

24.9

18.4

Guilford

18.8

47.5

Mecklenburg 23.0

20.0

Wake

11.0

8.4

Percent of registered voters voting in presidential elections trend DATA Percent of registered voters voting in general elections

Forsyth County 80

North Carolina United States

2002

2003

2004*

2005

2006

50.0 47.0 37.0

15.0 — —

66.9 — 55.3

12.3 64.0 —

39.3 — —

2000

2004

Forsyth

58.1

66.9

Durham

52.5

60.1

Guilford

58.7

66.8

Mecklenburg 57.2

64.4

Wake

73.1

67.4

*Presidential election

PERCENT OF REGISTERED VOTERS VOTING

70 60

50 Forsyth County

40

North Carolina

30 United States

20 10

2002

2003

2004 YEAR

2005

2006

We Can Do Better

Source: Board of Elections: Forsyth County, N.C., U.S., Durham, Guilford, Mecklenburg, Wake

1 This number includes all people over the age of 18 and, thus, some people who are not eligible to vote.

38

Section Seven

Forsyth County residents are physically and mentally healthy Health, both in mind and body, impacts peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s quality of life in a variety of ways. People with positive health habits such as exercise and healthy eating can improve health risks, while people who smoke or abuse drugs are more at risk for health problems. Societal issues such as poverty, education levels and safety can impact lifestyle choices that have direct impact on individual health.

Making Progress

We Can Do Better

39

Making Progress

Indicator: Alcohol and Illegal Substance Abuse

How Measured: A measurement for this indicator is currently being developed.

How We Are Doing: T he state of North Carolina reformed the public system that supports substance abuse over the last few years. Trend data is not complete or consistent, and comparison data is unreliable. Forsyth Futures will work to find ways to evaluate and measure the problem. Forsyth Futures also recognizes the importance of this issue and will focus energy on addressing the complex problem of providing competent and sustainable substance abuse services to the residents of Forsyth County.

What this means: Abuse of alcohol and illegal substances affects physical, societal and economic health,1 costing the nation more than $484 billion a year in treating related health problems such as heart disease, HIV/AIDS, osteoporosis and cirrhosis.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are Physically and mentally healthy.

Community Effects of Substance Abuse: • Impaired drivers – The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates that drugs are used by 10 -22 percent of drivers involved in crashes, often in combination with alcohol.

• Violence – At least half of the people arrested for major crimes were using illegal drugs around the time of arrest.

• Child abuse – At least two thirds of patients in drug abuse treatment centers say they were physically or sexually abused as children.

• Crime – As many as 60 percent of adults in federal prisons are there for drug-related crimes.

Economic Effects of Substance Abuse: • Homelessness – About 31 percent of America’s homeless suffer from drug abuse or alcoholism.

• Education – Children whose mothers used cocaine during pregnancy are 1.5 times more likely to need special education services in school, at an estimated cost of $23 million per year in the United States.

• Employment – Drug users were more likely to have missed two or more days of work in the past month and to have worked for three or more employers in the past year.

Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

We Can Do Better Source: North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, Division of MH/DD/SA

1

National Institute on Drug Abuse

40

Making Progress Indicator: Chronic Disease Death Rate

How Measured: Deaths per 100,000 people based on specific causes of death.

• The cancer rate was higher than the North Carolina rate in

all but one year.

• The heart disease rate was lower than the North Carolina rate in all but one year.

• The stroke rate was roughly the same as the North Carolina rate over all years.

What this means: The leading causes of death in the United States have shifted from infectious (caused by infection) to chronic (long lasting or recurrent, often treatable but non-curable) diseases.1 The most common, expensive and preventable of all health problems are chronic diseases.

In the United States,

mentally healthy.

Chronic disease death rate per 100,000 residents Cancer

2005

2006

Forsyth

204.4

202.8

Durham

158.1

157.6

Guilford

173.5

171.5

Mecklenburg

132.1

134.0

Wake

117.6

120.8

2005

2006

Heart disease

Forsyth

179.6

166.9

Durham

143.3

146.3

Guilford

183.9

162.6

Mecklenburg

121.6

115.1

Wake

105.6

100.3

2005

2006

trend DATA Chronic disease death rate Cancer

are Physically and

Stroke

• 70 percent of deaths are the result of a chronic disease.

• 90 million residents have a chronic disease.

• 70 percent of total medical care expenses are for chronic disease management.

Forsyth County Residents

comparison DATA

How We Are Doing: C ancer, heart disease and stroke have been the leading causes of death for the last several years in Forsyth County. Deaths from heart disease, the leading cause of death in 2001 with a rate of 211.7 per 100,000, have been declining. In 2005, there were 179.6 heart disease deaths per 100,000. However, deaths from cancer, the second-leading cause of death in 2001 with 196.3 per 100,000, increased to 204.4 per 100,000 in 2005. In Forsyth County,

desired RESULT:

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Forsyth

56.4

59.7

Durham

43.4

38.5

Guilford

47.8

47.7

Mecklenburg

36.3

33.5

Wake

39.6

27.6

Forsyth County 194.1 193.0 203.0 204.4 202.8 North Carolina 206.8 191.3 192.4 192.1 194.9

2002

206.8

192.8

2003

Forsyth County

193.0

200.9

North Carolina

191.3

2004

YEAR

North Carolina

Forsyth County

203.0

190.8

60.2

North Carolina

192.4

205.4

57.9

Forsyth County

204.4

North Carolina

192.1

Forsyth County

202.8

North Carolina

194.9

2006

194.1

2005

Forsyth County

0

100

200

221.6

166.9 194

300

RATE PER 100,000 RESIDENTS

41

North Carolina 192.8 221.5 205.4 203.6 194.0

69.6

Stroke

61.6

56.4

203.6

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Forsyth County 221.6 200.9 190.8 179.6 166.9

68.6

221.5

179.6

Heart Disease

62.9

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Forsyth County 62.9

69.6

60.2

56.4

59.7

North Carolina

61.6

57.9 55.8

51.4

68.6

Cancer

55.8

Heart Disease

59.7

Stroke

51.4

400

500

We Can Do Better

Source: North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics, N.C. Vital Statistics, Leading Causes of Death

Indicators for Chronic Disease Surveillance, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, CDC, September 10, 2004/53(RR11);1-6

1

Making Progress Indicator: Health Coverage

How Measured: T he percent of residents answering “yes” to the question “Do you have any kind of health coverage?”

How We Are Doing: T he estimated percent of Forsyth County residents with health insurance has varied between 83.0 percent and 86.6 percent since 2002. In 2006, 84.7 percent of our residents had health insurance, slightly less than the 86.8 percent who were covered in 2005.

Forsyth County rates have stayed slightly above the rate for the state and almost the same as the national rate.

What this means: Health coverage can be paid for by employer insurance, government programs or individuals, with most people traditionally covered by employer insurance. Rising health insurance costs mean many employers do not offer insurance, and many workers cannot afford it. As a result, the number of people without health coverage is rising. Government support programs such as Medicaid have not grown to meet the need, so the number of people paying for their own coverage has risen.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are Physically and mentally healthy.

comparison DATA Annual percent of residents with health coverage

2005

2006

Forsyth

86.8

84.7

Durham

73.9

76.9

Guilford

81.4

83.3

Mecklenburg

82.1

86.5

Wake

85.5

90.3

People without insurance are more likely to have financial problems; more likely to delay or avoid getting health care, including the regular care that would keep them healthy; and less likely to get their prescriptions filled. They spend more money on medical bills (leaving less for things like food and heat) and pay higher up-front charges for medical services. They are also more likely to have poor credit history because they pay their medical bills slowly or not at all.1

trend DATA Annual percent of residents with health coverage

Forsyth County North Carolina United States

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

86.6 83.3 85.9

- 82.6 85.6

83.0 82.9 85.1

86.8 80.9 85.5

84.7 82.8 85.5

PERCENT OF RESIDENTS WITH HEALTH COVERAGE

100

80

60

40 Forsyth County 20

0

North Carolina United States 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

YEAR

We Can Do Better Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)

1 The Uninsured – A Primer. Key Facts About Americans Without Health Insurance. The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, October 2007.

42

Making Progress Indicator: Infant Death

How Measured: T he number of babies under the age of 1 who die per 1,000 live births.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are Physically and mentally healthy.

Comparison DATA Annual rate of infant death

How We Are Doing: T he infant death rate for 2006 was 11.4 deaths per 1,000 live births.

This was up from 8.9 deaths per 1,000 in 2005 and was the highest rate for the county since 1999. Forsyth County’s rate has stayed above the state average for the last five years except for 2003, when it had 7.3 deaths per 1,000 compared to the state rate of 8.2 deaths per 1,000.

The ethnic minority (non-white) mortality rate was 19.2, more than double the white mortality rate of 8.0 in 2006.1 What this means: Infant death is a leading sign of the health of children in communities.

Infants most often die as a result of conditions such as prematurity, low birth weight, birth defects and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS).2 Premature births result from risk factors present before a woman becomes pregnant, such as stress, drug or alcohol abuse, tobacco use, unstable housing, poverty or having recently given birth to another baby. Low birth weight is defined as less than 5.5 pounds. Prematurity, low birth weight and birth defects cause death, illness, financial problems and emotional stress for families. To help prevent infant death, education programs teach families how practices like good health care, both before and after a baby’s birth, can help them lower their risk.

2005

2006

Forsyth

8.9

11.4

Durham

5.9

7.2

Guilford

9.5

10.6

Mecklenburg

8.4

6.4

Wake

6.9

7.0

Support DATA Annual rate of infant death by race/ethnicity Forsyth County

Ethnic minority rate White rate

2005

2006

16.4

19.2

5.9

8.0

2005

2006

14.9

13.6

6.4

6.0

North Carolina

Ethnic minority rate White rate

trend DATA Annual rate of infant death 2002

2003

2004

2005

Forsyth County

9.1

7.3

10.0

8.9

11.4

North Carolina

8.2

8.2

8.8

8.8

8.1

2006

NUMBER OF INFANT DEATHS PER 1,000 BIRTHS

12

10

8 Forsyth County North Carolina 6

2002

2003

2004 YEAR

2005

2006

We Can Do Better 43

Source: North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics

– Infant Mortality Statistics for N.C. 1999-2006

1 Forsyth County Infant Mortality Reduction Coalition 2007 Fact Sheet, Forsyth County Department of Health 2 North Carolina’s Infant Mortality Problems Persist: Time for Paradigm Shift, N.C. Medical Journal, May/June 2004, Value 65, Number 3, Judith L. DeClerque, Janice A. Freedman, Sarah Verbiest, and Stuart Bondurant

Making Progress Indicator: Obesity

How Measured: T his percentage is based on the number of adults age 18 and older who reported that their Body Mass Index (BMI) is 30.0 or more.

BMI is defined as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared.

How We Are Doing: I n 2006, 25.7 percent of Forsyth County residents were obese.

This number was slightly up from the obesity rates of 23.2 percent in 2004 and 20.3 percent in 2002. The county’s rate was slightly lower than the state’s rate of 26.6 percent in 2006 but slightly higher than the national average of 25.1 percent in 2006.

What this means: Obesity has both physical and social effects.1 Obese people have a higher risk for health problems including diabetes, heart disease, stroke, high blood pressure, cancer, sleep apnea, osteoarthritis and gallbladder disease. Cancers that have a direct link to obesity are kidney cancer, endometrial cancer, postmenopausal breast cancer, colorectal cancer, gallbladder cancer and thyroid cancer.

he social effects of obesity stem from negative attitudes toward T overweight people. These can exist in the workplace, where overweight people are less likely to be hired; in schools, where overweight children face bullying; in public places where seats are too small; or in health care, as overweight patients may put off getting medical care or not get it at all due to bad experiences with medical professionals. Overweight adults also have higher rates of depression, anxiety and loneliness and can have more trouble dealing with stress or life changes. trend DATA Annual percent of residents who are obese

Forsyth County North Carolina United States

2002 20.3 23.5 21.9

2003 - 24.0 22.9

2004 23.2 24.2 23.2

2005 21.5 25.9 24.4

2006 25.7 26.6 25.1

30

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are Physically and mentally healthy.

comparison DATA Annual percent of residents who are obese

2006

Forsyth

21.5

25.7

Durham

23.5

22.4

Guilford

21.9

27.3

Mecklenburg

23.3

21.4

Wake

20.4

23.3

support DATA Childhood obesity is a growing concern. Body Mass Index (BMI) is calculated by the North Carolina Health Weight Initiative using the North Carolina Nutrition and Physical Activity Surveillance System. It is important to note that these data may not be representative of the entire county, since they comprise children seen in N.C. Public Health-sponsored Women, Infants and Children (WIC) and child health clinics and some school-based health centers.

“Overweight” is defined as children with BMI in the 95th percentile or above. Below are the data for the last three years for North Carolina, Forsyth and the four benchmark counties: Overweight children 2-18 years

PERCENT OF OBESE RESIDENTS

2005

25

2005

2006

Forsyth

13.9

15.1

Durham

19.8

26.7

Guilford

13.5

13.8

Mecklenburg

15.8

16.2

Wake

18.7

17.8

Forsyth County North Carolina United States 20

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

YEAR

We Can Do Better The Obesity Society Fact Sheets, October 2007

1

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Questionnaire

44

Making Progress

Indicator: Residents Who Receive Mental Health Services

How Measured: A measurement is currently being developed for this indicator.

How We Are Doing: T he state of North Carolina reformed the public mental health system over the last few years. Trend data is not complete or consistent, and Forsyth Futures will work to find ways to evaluate and measure the situation. We recognize the importance of this issue and will focus energy on addressing the complex problem of providing competent and sustainable mental health services to the residents of Forsyth County.

What this means: It is estimated that 26.2 percent of Americans ages 18 and older — about one in four adults — suffer from a diagnosable mental disorder in a given year. Mental health is how an individual thinks, feels and acts when coping with life, and conditions can include autism, depression, addiction, phobias, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia.

These conditions are biological and can be improved with medicines and therapies.1

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are Physically and mentally healthy.

Barriers to accessing mental health services include: • Navigating a complex mental health system that connects many sectors (public–private, specialty–general health, health–social welfare, housing, criminal justice and education).

• Having health insurance: The type of coverage and how it is administered are critical factors of such access.

• Being aware of mental health services and the effectiveness of current treatments.

• Having enough time off from work and other responsibilities to get treatment.

• Having providers nearby.

• Having access to transportation and child care.

• Overcoming stigma associated with mental disorders.

Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

We Can Do Better North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, Division of MH/DD/SA

1

45

Source: SAMHSA, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services: CMHS Uniform Report

Making Progress

Indicator: Residents with Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs)

How Measured: R ates for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) are tracked by the Centers for Disease Control Surveillance Systems. Data on the diseases are collected from local and state sources.

How We Are Doing: Trends for sexually transmitted diseases vary for Forsyth

County. The four leading STDs, in order of prevalence, are

chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis and HIV. The combined rate of the four is consistently above the state and national rates. Chlamydia cases per 100,000 persons in Forsyth County have been on the rise over the last five years, from 375.8 cases per 100,000 persons in 2002 to 565.7 cases per 100,000 persons in 2006. Gonorrhea cases for Forsyth County have fluctuated during the five-year period, ranging from a low of 197.3 cases per 100,000 persons in 2003 to a high of 247.5 cases per 100,000 persons in 2004. HIV cases per 100,000 persons have remained relatively level over the last five years. Trends for early syphilis cases have been on the rise since 2004 after a downward trend from 2002-2004. In 2006, the rate of cases per 100,000 persons was 10.4, up from the five year-low in 2004 of 1.9 cases per 100,000 persons.1

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are Physically and mentally healthy.

Comparison DATA STD cases per 100,000 people

2005

2006

Forsyth

779.9

848.2

Durham

968.8

922.6

Guilford

657.3

719.0

Mecklenburg

763.4

689.7

Wake

389.0

784.4

support DATA STD cases per 100,000 people HIV

1000

Forsyth County North Carolina United States

2002

644.0 509.9 444.3

2003

681.8 517.5 449.4

2004

797.4 541.6 461.0

2005

779.9 559.5 479.2

2006

848.2 616.7 -

29.8

27.9

Durham

46.2

42.5

Guilford

27.5

34.7

Mecklenburg

41.3

49.0

Wake

27.8

34.3

2005

2006

Forsyth

524.3

565.7

Durham

609.7

548.7

Guilford

421.0

423.2

Mecklenburg

442.9

356.1

Wake

255.7

526.3

2005

2006

Forsyth

220.9

244.2

Durham

306.7

317.4

Guilford

193.5

244.2

Mecklenburg

261.4

260.2

96.8

215.7

2005

2006

CASES PER 100,000 PERSONS

Gonorrhea

800

Wake

600

Forsyth County North Carolina United States

400

2002

2003

2004 YEAR

2005

2006

2006

Forsyth

Chlamydia

trend DATA Residents with STDs per 100,000 people

2005

Early Syphilis

Forsyth

4.9

10.4

Durham

6.2

14.0

Guilford

15.3

16.9

Mecklenburg

17.8

24.4

8.7

8.1

Wake

We Can Do Better

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

1 CDC National Prevention Information Network

46

Making Progress Indicator: Teen Pregnancy

How Measured: The number of teen pregnancies per 1,000 females ages 15-19.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents are Physically and mentally healthy.

comparison DATA

How We Are Doing: F orsyth County’s pregnancy rate of females between the ages of 15-19 has stayed slightly higher than the state rate over the last seven years. In 2006, 63.7 per 1,000 females aged 15-19 were pregnant in Forsyth County, compared to 63.1 per 1,000 women in North Carolina. The 2006 pregnancy rate (63.7 per 1,000 females) was the second-lowest rate for the county in the seven-year period, with only 2004 having a lower pregnancy rate (63.5 per 1,000 females).

What this means: Teen pregnancy can have long-term effects on teen parents and their children. Teen mothers are more likely to drop out of school, have long-term health problems, use public aid and be poor. Children of teen mothers are more likely to suffer from health problems, abuse and neglect, score lower on achievement tests and also have children in their teens.1

Number of pregnancies per 1,000 women of reproductive age (1519)

2005

2006

Forsyth

66.5

63.7

Durham

64.7

60.4

Guilford

50.6

56.1

Mecklenburg

57.5

67.2

Wake

42.4

43.2

trend DATA Number of pregnancies per 1,000 women of reproductive age (15 - 19)

RATE PER 1,000 WOMEN OF REPRODUCTIVE AGE (15-19)

80

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Forsyth County North Carolina

68.8 64.1

71.7 61.0

63.5 62.4

66.5 61.7

63.7 63.1

70

Forsyth County North Carolina 60

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

YEAR

We Can Do Better 2006 North Carolina Children’s Index, Action for Children North Carolina

1

47

Source: North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics

–

Baby Book Teenage Births 1999-2006

Making Progress Indicator: Tobacco Use

How Measured: The number of people who reported being current smokers.

Forsyth County Residents are Physically and mentally healthy.

comparison DATA

How We Are Doing: I n Forsyth County, 23.3 percent of residents were smokers in 2006.

This was an increase of nearly 5 percent over the rate of 18.5 percent in 2005 but slightly below the rates of 24.1, 25.7 and 24.1 percent in 2004, 2002 and 2001, respectively. The county rate is slightly higher than the state and national rates for 2006.

What this means: Tobacco use remains the leading preventable cause of death and disease in our society.1 It puts people at risk for diseases including cancers, respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases such as heart disease. Smoking also harms pregnant women and babies, since it means a greater chance for complications, premature birth, low birth weight, still birth and infant death. The economic problems caused by tobacco use are great as well. Smoking costs about $157.7 billion in the United States each year in medical costs (including neonatal care) and in lost work output. This averages to about $3,000 per smoker each year.

Annual percent of residents who smoke

2005

2006

Forsyth

18.5

23.3

Durham

16.4

18.0

Guilford

18.5

21.4

Mecklenburg

16.0

17.9

Wake

17.8

12.5

trend DATA Annual percent of residents who smoke

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Forsyth County North Carolina United States

25.7 26.2 23.2

- 24.8 22.0

24.1 22.5 20.9

18.5 22.6 20.6

23.3 22.1 20.1

30

PERCENT OF RESIDENTS WHO SMOKE

desired RESULT:

25

20 Forsyth County North Carolina 15

United States 2002

2003

2004 YEAR

2005

2006

We Can Do Better

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Questionnaire

1 2004 Surgeon Generalâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Report â&#x20AC;&#x201D; The Health Consequences of Smoking, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Health and Human Services

Section Eight

Forsyth County residents are safe where they live, work and play A residentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s safety is important to his or her happiness.

Communities with lower crime rates often have a greater sense of community and higher property values, and they are more attractive to businesses. Children that grow up in safe surroundings perform better in school, are less likely to be involved in risky behaviors such as substance abuse and are less likely to be involved in crime as adults.

Making Progress

We Can Do Better

49

Making Progress Indicator: Adults Entering Prison

How Measured: T he number of prison entries for a calendar year based on a personâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s county of residence divided by county population.

How We Are Doing:

Forsyth Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rate of prison entries for adults per 100,000 adults is lower than the state rate and has varied over the last three years from a high of 399.84 entries per 100,000 residents in 2005 to a three-year low of 372.11 in 2006. The county rate is consistently lower than the state rate but consistently higher than three of the four comparison counties.

What this means: When an adult is in prison, his or her family is negatively affected, as many families with incarcerated adults are subject to poverty, stress and trauma.1 Incarceration can hurt the structure and financial well-being of the family, but the situation may not improve when the adult re-enters the family after release. Many ex-offenders returning to the community face barriers including employment, access to support programs and financial help, and issues with drug or alcohol abuse.

Forsyth County Residents Are safe where they live, work and play.

comparison DATA Number of adults entering prison per 100,000 people

2005

2006

Forsyth

399.84

372.11

Durham

247.87

280.60

Guilford

404.74

401.18

Mecklenburg

170.67

177.23

Wake

296.35

323.28

trend DATA Adults entering prison per 100,000 people 2004

2005

2006

Forsyth County

388.48

399.84

372.11

North Carolina

420.42

423.68

414.58

500 PRISON ENTRY RATE PER 100,000 RESIDENTS 18+

desired RESULT:

400

Forsyth County North Carolina 300

2004

2005

2006

YEAR

We Can Do Better The Urban Institute, Prisoners Once Removed

1

Source: North Carolina Department of Correction, Office of Research and Planning

50

Making Progress Indicator: Annual Crime Index

How Measured: T he Crime Index shows the number of crimes reported per 100,000 residents.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents Are safe where they live, work and play.

comparison DATA

How We Are Doing: T he Crime Index is based on crime reported by the Forsyth County Sheriff’s Office, the Kernersville Police Department and the Winston-Salem Police Department, as well as crime reported by law enforcement agencies at the North Carolina School of the Arts, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem State University and Forsyth Technical Community College. Forsyth County ranked third in crimes per 100,000 residents among the state’s five most urbanized counties. Reported crimes in the county decreased from a high in 2003 of 6,795.5 to 6,072.4 in 2006. There were more crimes reported in 2006 compared to 2005. The number of crimes reported by the Forsyth County Sheriff’s Office and Kernersville Police Department decreased in 2006, while the number reported by the Winston-Salem Police Department increased.

Reported crimes per 100,000 people

2005

Forsyth

5,764.6

6,072.4

Durham

6,606.6

6,640.5

Guilford

5,819.0

5,754.7

Mecklenburg

7,732.8

7,663.6

Wake

3,359.2

3,326.5

What this means: The Crime Index is a common indicator for a community, and it affects it both socially and economically. Factors that contribute to crime include poverty, unemployment, family conditions and drugs.

Crime not only hurts the victims but also lowers the feeling of security in neighborhoods where the crimes take place. A low crime index makes neighborhoods more stable and makes communities more attractive to business.

trend DATA Reported crimes per 100,000 people

2002

Forsyth County 6,413.00 North Carolina 4,792.60 United States 4,125.01

Forsyth County

United States

2006 6,072.40 4,649.30 3,808.07

2002

7,000

2003

2004

2005

1,339.22 4,941.25 413.10

1,154.67 4,346.72 399.09

1,005.03 4,301.29 371.78

2006 982.02 4,637.72 361.42

5,000

CRIME INDEX PER 100,000 PEOPLE

CRIME INDEX PER 100,000 PEOPLE

2005 5,764.60 4,622.90 3,900.58

Sherriff’s Office 1,189.27 WS Police Dept.

4,736.43 Kernersville Police Dept. 403.64

8,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

4,000

2002

2003

2004 YEAR

2005

2006

Forsyth County Sheriff’s Office

3,000

Winston-Salem Police Department

2,000

Kernersville Police Department

1,000

0

51

2004 5,974.90 4,638.70 3,977.25

Reported crimes by law enforcement unit1

North Carolina

3,000

2003 6,795.50 4,711.80 4,065.05

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

YEAR

FORSYTH COUNTY CRIME INDEX BY LAW ENFORCEMENT ORGANIZATION

We Can Do Better

Source: North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation, Division of Criminal Information, State Report 2006

2006

1

Universities not included

Making Progress

Indicator: Average Emergency Response Time

How Measured: A measurement for this indicator is currently being developed.

How We Are Doing: F orsyth County residents are covered by multiple emergency responders. At present, emergency response time data are not collected in a uniform manner across the county.

What this means: The time it takes for an emergency responder to reach residents in need affects the outcome. Timely responses can save lives and property and make a community feel more secure. Response time benchmarks vary from community to community and by type of emergency. A widely used benchmark for urban response times is a response time under eight minutes and 59 seconds with 90 percent reliability.1 This benchmark was derived from research on the time needed to save residents suffering from cardiac arrest, but because only a small percentage of emergency responses are for cardiac arrest, this may not be an accurate community-wide benchmark.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents Are safe where they live, work and play.

ecommended strategies for consistent R and effective response times: • Matching supply and demand – Add staff to meet demand during busy cycles.

• Improving time in all aspects of a response – All aspects of a response, from call taking to arrival of care, affect response time.

• Responding appropriately – Not all emergencies require the same level of response time.

• Using technology – New technology, such as GIS and computers in emergency vehicles, can improve responders’ ability to find the emergency.

• Ensuring accountability – Response times have historically not been made public, but in an age of increased accountability and demand for funding, this information is important to share.

SUPPORT DATA Average time from dispatch to arrival2

Kernersville Fire Department

Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

Winston-Salem Fire Department (Priority 1 calls)

Winston-Salem Police Department (Priority 1 calls)

2006

2007

3:41

3:43

2006-07 3.61

2006-07 4.04

Response Times: Myths, Measurement and Management, Journal of Emergency Medicine, September 2005 Vol. 30 Issue 9, September 1, 2005, JAY FITCH, PhD

1

We Can Do Better Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports

Data provided by Kernersville Fire Department, Winston-Salem Fire Department and Winston-Salem Police Department.

2

Making Progress Indicator: Children Who are Maltreated

desired RESULT:

How Measured: Number of children found substantiated or in need of services divided by the total population of 0-18 years of age.

comparison DATA

How We Are Doing: F orsyth County’s annual rate of child abuse, neglect and exploitation cases (reported and accepted for investigation or assessment) substantiated or found to be in need of services was .67 percent in 2005-06, down from .69 percent in 2004-05. This rate was below the state rate of 1.15 percent in 2005-06 and 1.27 in 2004-05.

Compared to the other metropolitan counties, Forsyth County’s rate was below Durham (0.72 percent) and Mecklenburg (0.98 percent) Counties’ rates in 2005-06 but was slightly above Guilford 0.64 percent) and Wake (0.63 percent) Counties’ rates for the same year.

Comparison data from only two years is available, as the state changed the tracking of this indicator.

What this means: Child abuse, neglect and exploitation can have a long-term impact on the well-being of children. Research shows that children who are abused, neglected or exploited are:

• 58 percent more likely to be arrested as juveniles than children not exposed to abuse and neglect.

• Significantly more likely to become pregnant during adolescence, use drugs and experience mental health problems.

• More likely to have lower grade-point averages.

• 38 percent more likely to be arrested as adults and to commit violent crimes than adults who were not abused and neglected as children. trend DATA Percent of children who are maltreated

Forsyth County North Carolina

2004-2005 0.69 1.27

2005-2006 0.67 1.15

PERCENT OF CHILDREN MALTREATED

1.5

1.2

Are safe where they live, work and play.

Percent of children who are maltreated

2004-05

2005-06

Forsyth

0.69

0.67

Durham

–

0.72

Guilford

0.64

0.64

Mecklenburg

1.05

0.98

Wake

0.78

0.63

SUPPORT DATA Child maltreatment costs North Carolina about $3 billion annually in child protective services, court costs, medical care and special education programs. Only $650,000 in state funding is available for child maltreatment prevention.

How the System Works The Department of Social Services receives reports of suspected child abuse, neglect or dependency.

Reports that meet legal criteria are accepted for investigation or family assessment and placed in one of two “tracks.” More serious reports are investigated and are found to be substantiated or non-substantiated.

Other reports go in the family assessment track and are found to be either in need of services, services recommended or services not recommended.

Forsyth County referrals/outcomes

0.9

2006-07

2,798

3,150

555

534

2,243

2,646

Substantiated or in need of services Unsubstantiated

North Carolina

0.6

2005-06

Referrals

Forsyth County

2004-2005

2005-2006 YEAR

53

Forsyth County Residents

We Can Do Better

Source: North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, U.S. Census Bureau

Making Progress Indicator: Domestic Violence

How Measured: A measurement for this indicator is currently being developed.

How We Are Doing: W hile a data measure has not been completed on this indicator, secondary data based on the number of cases filed in District Civil Court related to domestic violence was slightly lower in Forsyth County and North Carolina from 2005-06 to 2006-07. Similar trends occurred in four of the five comparison counties.

owever, community and state professionals stress that court H cases filed do not accurately reflect the number of people affected by domestic violence. New tracking methods are being used locally and statewide to better track this issue through law enforcement and service providers.

What this means: Domestic violence refers to violent acts between family members, two people that are dating or have dated, or former spouses or family members. The acts can include attempting to cause bodily harm, harassment that causes emotional distress or making the person or a family member fear being harmed.1

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents Are safe where they live, work and play.

Domestic violence affects people and communities in a variety of ways: 2 • Children – Children exposed to domestic violence are more likely to have problems like depression, anxiety and violence that can lead to attempted suicide, substance abuse, running away or sexual assault crimes.

• Health care – Nationally the cost of violence is more than $5.8 billion each year, with $4.1 billion going to direct medical and mental health services.

• Housing – 44 percent of cities surveyed by the U.S. Conference of Mayors identified domestic violence as the primary cause of homelessness.

• Workplace – The annual cost of lost productivity in the United States is about $727.8 million with over 7.9 million paid workdays lost each year.

SUPPORT DATA Number of cases filed in District Civil Court

2005-06

Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

Forsyth Durham Guilford Mecklenburg Wake

1,090 776 1,433 2,743 1,963

2005-06

Forsyth County Sheriff’s Office Winston-Salem Police Department

Source: North Carolina Administrative Office of the Courts

953 734 1,401 2,535 1,991

Domestic events or incidents by law enforcement organization

We Can Do Better

2006-07

2006-07

1,129

627

2,412

3,416

1 Fact Sheet for Domestic Violence Victims, Family Services of Forsyth, Stokes and Davie Counties 2 Family Violence Prevention Fund – Fact Sheets on Children, Health Care, Housing and Workplace 54

Making Progress

Indicator: Elderly and Disabled Adults Who Are Maltreated

How Measured: A measurement for this indicator is currently being developed.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents Are safe where they live, work and play.

How Adult Protective Services Works

How We Are Doing: Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

What this means: As the population continues to age, the number of elder maltreatment cases is expected to rise.1 In the United States, the population over age 65 will nearly triple to more than 70 million people by 2030, and this group will make up more than 20 percent of the total population.

Elder abuse can be in the form of emotional, financial or physical abuse.

Care for elders and disabled adults varies based on economic and social factors. Caregivers can be medical or non-medical professionals, and care can be offered in-home or through facilities. Historically the majority of elder caregiving has been provided by family members, but as the trends change due to societal changes such as more adult children in the workforce, caregivers are changing.

buse of elderly and disabled adults is estimated to be under-reported A across the United States, and the system for elder protection varies from state to state. Various studies show that 1 to 2 million Americans age 65 or older have been injured, exploited or mistreated by someone they depended on for care. Only one in 14 incidents, except for incidents of self neglect, come to the attention of authorities. Financial exploitation is reported only in about one in 25 cases, suggesting that there may be at least five million financial abuse victims each year in the United States.2

Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

The Department of Social Services provides Adult Protective Services. DSS receives reports of suspected abuse, neglect or exploitation of older adults and adults with disabilities. Each report is reviewed and addressed in one or more of the following ways: information and service referrals are provided, outreach and preventative services are offered, or the report is accepted for APS investigation. If accepted for APS investigation, the alleged victimâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s competency is determined and a finding is reached about whether adult maltreatment has occurred. If the victim is legally incompetent, services may be provided with or without his or her permission. If the victim is legally competent, services may only be provided with his or her permission.

The Department supports all adults (18 and older). Below is a summary of cases referred, served and evaluated over the last two years. It is important to note that 88 percent of the 2005-06 evaluated cases were for adults 60+, and 77 percent of the evaluated cases in 2006-07 were for adults 60+.

SUPPORT DATA

2005-06 Referrals

504

592

Information & Referral Outreach Services

251

363

89

107

Evaluation

164

122

(114*)

(92*)

52

30

Confirmed Maltreatment

Elder Mistreatment: Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation in an Aging America (2002) Fact Sheet: National Center on Elder Abuse, 2005 *Based on data collection, 114 of the evaluated cases in 2005-06 and 92 of the evaluated cases in 2006-07 were age 60+.

1

We Can Do Better 55

2006-07

2

Making Progress Indicator: Hate Crimes

How Measured: H ate crimes are tracked by data reported by law enforcement to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program.

How We Are Doing: N umbers of hate crimes in Forsyth County have stayed lower than in other metropolitan counties with a total of 10 incidents reported from 2001-2005, compared to eight, 51, 40 and 41 incidents in Durham, Guilford, Mecklenburg and Wake Counties, respectively, for the same period.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents Are safe where they live, work and play.

comparison DATA Number of hate crimes committed

Forsyth Durham Guilford Mecklenburg Wake

2004

2005

1 0 8 8 11

1 5 10 2 11

What this means: Hate crimes are violent acts against people or property because of race, religion, ethnicity or country of origin, sexual orientation, disability or gender.1 Hate crimes affect the victims and the entire community by:

• Making the victims feel degraded and afraid.

• Harming relations between the communities of the victim and the person who commits the crime.

• Escalating into widespread conflict, civil disturbances and even riots.

• Causing community damage that is difficult or impossible to repair.

trend DATA Number of hate crimes committed in Forsyth County

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

7

0

1

1

1

8 7

NUMBER OF HATE CRIMES

6 5 4 3 2 1 Forsyth County 0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

YEAR

We Can Do Better U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation 56

1

Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports

Making Progress Indicator: Juvenile Delinquency

How Measured: T he number of youth ages 6–16 adjudicated (convicted) of crimes for every 1,000 youth.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents Are safe where they live, work and play.

comparison DATA Juvenile delinquency rate

How We Are Doing: F orsyth County’s juvenile delinquency rate was higher in 2006 (31.75) than in 2005 (20.34). The county’s rate has stayed below the state rate all three years, below Guilford and Mecklenburg Counties’ rates for each year and relatively even with Durham and Wake Counties’ rates.

Forsyth Durham Guilford Mecklenburg Wake

2005

2006

20.34 24.06 41.34 38.02 26.39

31.75 25.50 49.38 36.05 28.14

What this means: Youth ages 6–15 who commit crimes enter the juvenile justice system in North Carolina after a complaint that they have committed a crime. Complaints are reviewed by court counselors who determine if the complaint should be heard by the court or sent to a community program serving at-risk youth. Youth who go to court and are adjudicated (convicted) can receive sentences such as community service, mental health counseling, drug or alcohol abuse counseling, electronic monitoring or placement in a youth development center.

any family, social and personal factors can make a youth more M likely to enter the juvenile justice system. These can include problems in school or with drugs or alcohol, a history of running away, a parent or sibling with a criminal history, a violent home and/or mental health needs.

trend DATA Juvenile delinquency rate

JUVENILE DELINQUENCY RATE

50

2005

2006

Forsyth County North Carolina

20.34 34.86

31.75 36.21

40

30 North Carolina Forsyth County 20

2005

2006 YEAR

*Note: Because the North Carolina Department of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention made a change in reporting this rate in 2004, only data from 2004 to present can be compared accurately.

We Can Do Better 57

Source: The North Carolina Department of Justice and Delinquency Prevention

60

Making Progress

Indicator: Leading Causes of Traffic Deaths

How Measured: T his indicator is based on a report filed on fatal crashes by a recording agency. It should be noted that contributing circumstances refer not to the number of fatal crashes but the number of circumstances contributing to the fatal crashes as indicated by the recording agency.

It should also be noted that up to three circumstances contributing to the fatal crashes could be indicated for each fatal crash.

How We Are Doing: S peed, inattention and aggressive driving are consistently the top reasons for fatal traffic accidents in Forsyth County. This is also true in trends for the state. In 2006, the top three circumstances attributed to accidents were speed, inattention and crossing the center line. In the same year, the top three circumstances attributed to accidents across the state were crossing the center line, speed and aggressive driving.

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents Are safe where they live, work and play.

SUPPORT DATA Total number of fatal crashes

2005

2006

Forsyth County

32

37

Durham County

21

22

Guilford County

66

38

Mecklenburg County

80

85

Wake County

55

68

What this means: Traffic fatalities are often the leading cause of preventable deaths in a community.1 Risk factors associated with traffic fatalities include speed, impaired driving from alcohol, drugs or lack of sleep; seatbelt use; and pedestrian/pedalcyclist travel. Communities are looking at several ways to lower traffic death, including public awareness campaigns, new laws and safe pedestrian travel options.

Leading causes of deaths in traffic accidents

Forsyth County

2005

2006

No contributing circumstances indicated (21) Exceeded authorized speed limit (8) Failed to yield right of way (7) Inattention (5)

Operated vehicles in erratic, reckless, careless, negligent or aggressive manner (5)

No contributing circumstances indicated (21) Exceeded authorized speed limit (8) Inattention (7) Crossed center line/going wrong way (6) Operated vehicles in erratic, reckless, careless, negligent or aggressive manner (6)

North Carolina

2005

2006

No contributing circumstances indicated (917) Crossed center line/going wrong way (366) Exceeded authorized speed limit (310) Operated vehicles in erratic, reckless, careless, negligent or aggressive manner (292) Alcohol use (214)

No contributing circumstances indicated (876) Crossed center line/going wrong way (338) Exceeded authorized speed limit (324) Operated vehicles in erratic, reckless, careless, negligent or aggressive manner (300) Alcohol use (200)

We Can Do Better Source: Safety Planning Group, Traffic Safety Unit, North Carolina Department of Transportation

1

U.S. Department of Transportation

58

Making Progress

Indicator: Violent Acts on School Grounds

How Measured: V iolent acts are measured by a rate of reported acts per 1,000 students and placed into 17 categories. Data are collected by local school districts and reported to the North Carolina Department of Instruction. The data are provided to the public in an annual report.

How We Are Doing: T he rate of violent acts occurring on school grounds has doubled over the last five years from a rate of 4.64 acts per 1,000 students in 2001-02 to 8.4 acts per 1,000 students in 2005-06. In comparison, the state rate has remained relatively stable, with annual rates ranging between 6.58 and 7.9 acts per 1,000 students during the same period.

Over this five-year period, Forsyth County’s rate was only above the state rate in the latest reporting year.

What this means: School violence negatively affects learning for students and staff.

While students are safer from violent crimes on school campuses than off school campuses, the feeling of safety is still important for school officials to consider in creating an environment where students can learn.1

chools with violence prevention and response plans and teams S responsible for carrying out the plans have positive results including:

• Improved academics.

• Fewer disciplinary actions such as suspensions.

• Environment that encourages learning.

• Better staff morale.

• More efficient use of staff and funding.

• Greater safety.

2002- 2003

Forsyth County North Carolina

2003- 2004

2004- 2005

2005- 2006

6.62 7.37

6.17 7.49

8.4 7.9

5.45 6.58

20062007 9.8 7.8

REPORTED ACTS PER 1,000 STUDENTS

10

Are safe where they live, work and play.

comparison DATA Number of violent acts reported per 1,000 students

Forsyth

Durham Guilford Mecklenburg Wake

2005-06 2006-07 8.4 9.2 8.3 6.7 9.6

9.8 10.3 6.9 7.4 9.9

SUPPORT DATA Forsyth County Sheriff’s Office School Crime Comparison The following charts show the number of Part I Offenses, Part II Offenses and Non-criminal Incidents that occurred on high school and middle school grounds in 2005-2006 and 2006-2007.

2005-06 Part I 232 Part II 645 Non-criminal incidents 39

2006-07 182 700 84

Middle School Reported Offenses

2005-06 Part I 76 Part II 353 Non-criminal incidents 14

2006-07 76 407 42

Part I offenses include murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft.

8

Part II offenses include all other crime including traffic, vandalism, drug violations, disorderly conduct, etc.

Non-criminal incidents include incidents such as those specific to FCSO, and for many of them there is no victim and/or the victim is society.

6

Forsyth County

4

North Carolina 2002 -2003

2003 -2004

2004 -2005 YEAR

59

Forsyth County Residents

High School Reported Offenses

trend DATA Number of violent acts reported per 1,000 students

desired RESULT:

2005 -2006

2006 -2007

We Can Do Better

Source: North Carolina Department of Instruction, Annual Report of School Crime and Violence

School Violence: An Overview, Journal of the office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, Volume VII, Number 1, U.S. Department of Justice, June 2001

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Making Progress Indicator: Youth in Gangs

How Measured: C lassification of gang activity is based on at least two of the criteria established by law enforcement for gang involvement.

How We Are Doing: Gang activity has been on the increase across the United States.

Forsyth County law enforcement has reported increased activity related to gangs over the last few years.

What this means: Youth gang members commit crimes at higher rates than youth not involved in gangs. Many differences exist between adult gangs and youth gangs. For example, youth gangs are typically less organized than adult gangs. Risk factors for youth involved in gangs include individual, family, school, peer group and community risk factors, including:

• Delinquency • Drug use • Family poverty • Child abuse and neglect • Gang involvement by family member • Low achievement in school • Association with peers that are delinquents • Neighborhoods with poverty and residents that have low neighborhood attachment, social integration and formal organization

desired RESULT: Forsyth County Residents Are safe where they live, work and play.

Law enforcement classifies gang involvement based on established criteria.

For a youth to be classified with gang involvement, the youth must meet at least two of the following criteria: • Classification admit • Self-admitted • Reliable source • Untested source • Gang incident • Affiliates with gang • Frequents gang area • Gang dress • Physical evidence • Gang tattoos/marking • Gang terminology • Gang hand signs/symbols

Data for this indicator are currently being developed.

We Can Do Better 60

Funding Partners Below is the list of 2007-08 major funding partners as of January 1, 2008:

Acknowledgements Forsyth Futures extends gratitude to the following community institutions, organizations and residents that participated in the development of this project.

• Forsyth Medical Center Foundation • Wake Forest University Baptist Medical Center • Winston-Salem Foundation

It is with special gratitude that we acknowledge the many hours of research and compilation of data provided by Northwest Piedmont Council of Governments staff members Marc Allred and Byron Brown.

Community Supporter ($20,000 - $49,999)

Community Engagement Team Members

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Community Champion ($75,000+) • Kate B. Reynolds Charitable Trust • United Way of Forsyth County Community Builder ($50,000 - $74,999)

Ayo Ademoyero, Health Department “B” Akins, Forsyth Futures Tonya Atkins, Forsyth Futures Deltra Bonner, CHANGE Dean Burgess, Northwest Piedmont Council of Governments Florence Corpening, YWCA Jim DeCristo, North Carolina School of Arts Anthony Dotson, CenterPoint Karen Durell, Housing Authority of Winston-Salem Brenda Evans, Forsyth County Department of Social Services Sam Evans, Winston-Salem State University Sandra Fishel-Booth, The Winston-Salem Foundation Gail Fisher, Community Volunteer Capri Foy, Wake Forest University John Gates, Community Volunteer Keith Grandberry, Winston-Salem Urban League Nancy Griffith, Community Alliance for Education Gwen Guernsey, Novant Health Arthur Hardin, Winston-Salem State University Martha Higginbotham, St. Paul’s Episcopal Church Judy Horsey, Smart Start of Forsyth County Addie Hymes, Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools Jesse Hymes, Black Chamber of Commerce Althea Hairston, Northwest Piedmont Council of Governments Nancy Hull, Community Volunteer Linda Jackson-Barnes, City of Winston-Salem Ann Jones, City of Winston-Salem Andrea Kepple, Forsyth Technical Community College Montez Lane, ECHO Council Monica Lett, City of Winston-Salem Mary McCoin, United Way of Forsyth County Lynne Mitchell, Forsyth County Department of Health Terry Moore, Forsyth Futures Pauline Morris, Forsyth Tech Marilyn Odom, Smart Start of Forsyth County Art Pittman, Wake Forest University Bob Parker, Wake Forest University Medical Center Rick Pender, Center for Community Safety, Winston-Salem State University Kyle Robertson, PTA Council of Forsyth County Daisy Rodriguez, YMCA – Community Outreach Services Dr. Nelson Shearouse, Retired Educators Association Joetta Shepherd, Family Services Dr. Ken Simington, Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools Sharon Singletary, Forsyth County Youth Center Catrina Thompson, Winston-Salem Police Department Twana Wellman, Experiment in Self-Reliance, Inc.

• Forsyth County •F orsyth County Department of Social Services • Northwest Piedmont Council of Government • Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools • Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation Community Collaborator (Under $20,000)

• Black Leadership Roundtable • CenterPoint Human Services • City of Winston-Salem • Forsyth Technical Community College • Individual Donors • Senior Services • Smart Start of Forsyth County • Wachovia • Winston-Salem Chamber of Commerce • Winston-Salem Police Department

Local Organizations Providing Data or Data Sources

• Bethania • CenterPoint Human Services • City of Winston-Salem • Forsyth County Board of Elections • Forsyth County Department of Environmental Affairs • Forsyth County Department of Health • Forsyth County Department of Social Services • Forsyth County Library • Forsyth County Sheriff’s Office • Forsyth County District Courts • Northwest Piedmont Council of Governments • Smart Start of Forsyth County • The Arts Council of Forsyth County and Winston-Salem • Town of Lewisville • Town of Kernersville • Town of Rural Hall • Town of Tobaccoville • Winston-Salem Foundation • Winston-Salem Police Department • Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools • Winston-Salem Fire Department • Winston-Salem Entertainment & Sports Complex • Village of Clemmons

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Help us make progress Input from all residents is important to Forsyth Futures. Please contact us by any of the following ways to stay informed and provide input: By phone: (336)-724-2831 By e-mail: staff@forsythfutures.org By web: www.forsythfutures.org