Vol. 33 | No. 12
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. External economic situation
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
26
10. Balance of payments
30
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
32
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
36
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
40
Policy Issues 2012 economic policies aim at stronger economy and improved living quality
42
Economic News Briefing
47
Statistical Appendices
53
The Green Book Current Economic Trends Overview Although the Korean economy has seen employment and the service sector steadily recovering, it has been affected by external uncertainties with some real economic indicators slowing down, and the possibilities of rising prices remain. Employment accelerated an increase in October from 264,000 jobs to 501,000, as negative effects from Chuseok holidays which had temporarily affected the job market were removed. The employment rate improved to 59.9 percent from 59.1 percent, and the unemployment rate landed at 2.9 percent, down from 3.0 percent in the previous month. Consumer price inflation rose at a faster pace from 3.6 percent a month ago to 4.2 percent in November due partly to a low base effect, with both core prices and expected inflation remaining high. Mining and manufacturing production declined 0.7 percent month-on-month in October due to a fall in automobile production, while service output increased 0.7 percent as wholesale & retail sales and financial & insurance services rose. In October retail sales went up 0.6 percent from the previous month despite declining durable and semi-durable goods sales, as non-durable goods sales had increased. Facilities investment dropped 12.1 percent month-on-month in October in line with weak machinery and transportation equipment investment, while construction investment gained 3.1 percent. Trade continued to maintain a positive balance, posting a surplus of around US$4 billion in November, while exports regained a double digit increase year-on-year, from 8.0 percent to 13.8 percent. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month in October, in line with the manufacturing operation ratio going down. The leading composite index dropped 0.4 percentage points year-on-year from the previous month, as the net terms of trade declined. In November, financial markets which had been volatile due to unstable external situations and erratic international financial markets became stable to some extent, as expectations of global cooperation built up. There had been remaining gaps of housing price trends between the Seoul metropolitan area and other areas in November, while the rental price increase slowed down month-onmonth from 1.1 percent to 0.7 percent. There have been lingering external uncertainties, due to the deepening European debt crisis and the possibility that the global economy may slow down. The Korean government will closely monitor local and global economic situations and swiftly respond to any changes, while renewing efforts to help the economy keep recovering and prices continue stabilizing. In the meantime, it will pursue active job creation and better livelihood for working class families, and push forward economic restructuring in a way to boost domestic demand and facilitate the soft-landing of household debts. Economic Bulletin
3
1. External economic situation Worries over a global economic recession have slightly eased with the US and Chinese economies posting better-than-expected performances in the third quarter. However, downward risks from the continuing European financial woes are still a main concern. On November 30, the US Federal Reserve announced a coordinated action with five other central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, to ease strains in financial markets. They agreed to extend US dollar liquidity swaps for six months until February 1, 2013 and to lower the interest rate by 50 basis points. The OECD revised downward its 2011 and 2012 global economic growth forecasts to 3.8 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, from 4.2 percent and 4.6 percent in May.
US
The U.S. economic recovery continued with an improvement of economic indicators such as consumption, production and employment, but economic growth was revised downward to 2.0 percent (annualized q-o-q) in the third quarter from the advanced estimate. Sales of consumer goods continued to grow with an improvement of consumer sentiment that had significantly declined due to unease in financial markets from the European financial crisis. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index 71.5 (Jun 2011)
63.7 (Jul)
55.7 (Aug)
59.4 (Sept)
60.9 (Oct)
64.1 (Nov)
Retail sales (m-o-m, %) 0.2 (Apr 2011)
0.0 (May)
0.2 (Jun)
0.4 (Jul)
0.3 (Aug)
1.1 (Sept)
0.5 (Oct)
The ISM Manufacturing Index and industrial production also continued to improve. ISM manufacturing Index (base=50) 53.5 (May 2011)
55.3 (Jun)
50.9 (Jul)
50.6 (Aug)
51.6 (Sept)
50.8 (Oct)
52.7 (Nov)
The recovery of the job market gained momentum as the unemployment rate fell from 9.0 percent in September to 8.6 percent in October, although the housing market remained in a slump. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009
Real GDP
2
20111
2010
Aug
Sep
Oct
2.0
-
-
-
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
-3.5
3.0
2.5
2.3
0.4
1.3
-1.9
2.0
2.6
3.6
2.1
0.7
2.3
-
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
-17.8
4.4
11.3
8.7
2.1
10.3
14.8
-
-
-
- Housing construction investment
-16.0
14.6
-27.7
2.5
-2.4
4.2
1.6
-
-
-
Industrial production
-11.2
5.3
1.6
0.8
1.2
0.1
1.3
0.0
-0.1
0.7
- Personal consumption expenditure
-1.7
3.8
0.9
1.4
1.5
1.0
1.1
0.2
0.7
0.1
Existing home sales
5.2
-4.5
-25.1
13.8
8.2
-4.9
-0.1
8.4
-3.2
1.4
Unemployment rate3
9.3
9.6
9.6
9.6
8.9
9.1
9.1
9.1
9.0
8.6
-0.3
1.6
0.4
0.7
1.3
1.0
0.8
0.4
0.3
-0.1
Retail sales
Consumer prices 1. Preliminary
4
2. Annualized rate (%)
December 2011
3. Seasonally adjusted
Source: US Department of Commerce
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
The growth of China’s exports slowed down significantly due to the global economic slowdown, and the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) hit its lowest mark in 33 months in November. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 52.0 (May 2011)
50.9 (Jun)
50.7 (Jul)
50.9 (Aug)
51.2 (Sept)
50.4 (Oct)
49.0 (Nov)
On November 30, the People’s Bank of China announced that it was lowering its depositreserve ratio by 50 basis points from 21.5 percent to 21 percent to cope with the worsening of external conditions and the slowdown of growth. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Real GDP
2009 Annual 9.1
Annual
2010 Q3
Q4
Q1
10.3
9.6
9.8
9.7
Q2
20111 Q3 Aug
Sep
Oct
9.5
9.1
-
-
-
11.0
15.7
13.5
13.3
14.9
13.9
13.8
13.5
13.8
13.2
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
30.5
24.5
24.5
24.5
32.5
27.0
28.0
28.1
28.0
28.7
Retail sales
15.5
23.3
23.9
22.0
17.1
18.2
17.2
17.0
17.7
17.7
-16.0
31.3
32.2
24.9
26.4
22.0
20.5
24.5
17.1
15.9
Consumer prices
-0.7
3.3
3.5
4.7
4.9
5.7
6.3
6.2
6.1
5.5
Producer prices2
-5.4
5.5
4.5
5.7
7.0
6.9
7.1
7.3
6.5
5.0
Industrial production
2
Exports 2
1. Preliminary 2. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
Japan’s exports declined in October due to the European financial crisis and the flooding in Thailand, but the country posted positive quarter-on-quarter growth in the third quarter for the first time in four quarters at 1.5 percent. On November 21, the Japanese government approved its third supplementary budget of 12.1 trillion yen. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009 Annual
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales (y-o-y) Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y) 1. Preliminary
Annual
2010 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
20111 Aug Q3
Sep
Oct
-
-
2.4
1.5
-6.3
4.0
0.8
-0.3
-0.7
-0.3
-21.9
16.4
-1.1
-0.1
-2.0
-4.0
4.3
0.6
-3.3
-2.3
2.5
3.2
-0.4
-3.0
-1.7
-1.0
-2.6
-1.1
1.9
-33.1
24.4
17.8
10.0
2.4
-8.0
0.5
2.8
2.3
-3.8
-1.4
-0.7
-0.8
0.1
-1.4
-0.4
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Source: Japan's Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance
Eurozone
Industrial production and retail sales shifted to a decline and export growth slowed down, while consumer prices continued to increase. The EU Commission revised downward its growth forecast for the eurozone, predicting that growth will remain low due to financial market unease and the slowdown of the global economy. EU growth forecast (May 1.6
1.5 (2011), 1.8
November, %)
0.5 (2012), 1.3 (2013) (Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y) 1. Preliminary
6
Source: Eurostat
December 2011
2009 Annual -4.1 -14.7
Annual
2010 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
20111 Aug Q3
Sep
Oct
1.8
0.4
0.3
0.8
0.2
0.2
-
-
-
7.4
1.0
1.8
0.9
0.4
0.9
1.5
-2.1
-
-2.4
0.8
0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
0.1
-0.7
-18.1
20.1
22.8
21.8
21.7
13.0
9.4
12.1
9.7
-
0.3
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.4
2.7
2.6
2.5
3.0
3.0
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary) rose 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 2.0 percent yearon-year in the third quarter of 2011. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010 1
2009
Private consumption
2
q-o-q
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
0.0
0.4
5.6
-
1.4
0.9
20111
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
4.1
6.6
3.5
3.6
2.9
2.8
3.0
2.0
-
0.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
0.4
0.9
0.4
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Retail sales rose month-on-month in October for the first time in three months as sales of groceries and other non-durable goods increased due to the slowdown of the rise of consumer prices. However, sales of semi-durable goods and durable goods including automobiles slightly declined month-on-month. On a year-on-year basis, sales of durable, semi-durable and non-durable goods all rose, but those of durable and non-durable goods slowed down an increase to a certain extent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Consumer goods sales q-o-q - Durable goods
2
ăƒťAutomobiles - Semi-durable goods - Non-durable goods4
3
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q31
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
2.7
6.6
7.5
5.1
5.1
5.7
4.4
5.2
2.8
2.2
-
-
3.3
0.8
1.1
0.2
2.3
-0.2
-3.2
0.6
8.2
14.9
17.0
10.6
12.9
17.5
10.4
12.2
6.5
2.9
21.8
11.1
12.0
0.1
10.2
13.0
8.3
6.7
7.3
-7.7
1.3
6.8
6.6
11.1
6.1
5.6
4.0
3.8
4.4
3.5
1.2
2.2
3.0
-0.7
0.8
-0.4
2.0
2.6
1.1
3.1
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Sales of large discounters rose significantly year-on-year, but those of specialized retailers declined. Month-on-month, sales of department stores, large discounters and nonstore retailers, excluding those of specialized retailers, all rose. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers - Nonstore retailers
2
20111
2010
2009 Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q31
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
4.3
8.8
7.4
10.5
11.5
9.7
6.5
7.6
5.3
3.5
-2.2
4.4
7.6
0.8
3.5
5.1
2.3
3.0
0.3
7.7
3.0
5.6
7.3
4.2
4.3
4.9
3.9
3.8
1.8
-0.6
8.7
15.6
11.4
13.5
11.5
9.2
9.4
15.4
7.0
6.5
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea
8
December 2011
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Considering advanced indicators, there is a possibility that retail sales may slow down in November compared to the previous month. The growth of credit card use slowed down slightly as sales of distributors went down, with department store sales dropping from a 3.8 percent increase to a 1.1 percent decrease and sales at large discounters falling from 5.6 percent to 0.3 percent. Automobile sales declined at a faster pace than the previous month. However, gasoline sales climbed 1.4 percent year-on-year due to a drop in prices from the stabilization of the exchange rate. Gasoline prices (won per liter) 1,992 (1st week of Nov, 2011)
1,988 (2nd week)
1,983 (3rd week)
1,977 (4th week)
1,965 (5th week)
Credit card use (y-o-y, %) 19.8 (Jun 2011)
16.6 (Jul)
19.8 (Aug)
19.7 (Sep)
17.4 (Oct)
14.5 (Nov1)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 8.2 (Jun 2011)
8.5 (Jul)
8.3 (Aug)
6.5 (Sep)
3.8 (Oct)
-1.1 (Nov1)
Large discounter sales (y-o-y, %) 2.7 (Jun 2011)
4.9 (Jul)
2.0 (Aug)
-1.1 (Sep)
5.6 (Oct)
0.3 (Nov1)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) -3.4 (Jun 2011)
9.2 (Jul)
-0.3 (Aug)
1.0 (Sep)
-1.4 (Oct)
1.4 (Nov1)
Domestic sales of cars (y-o-y, %) 6.0 (Jun 2011)
6.1 (Jul)
3.7 (Aug)
3.8 (Sep)
-8.8 (Oct)
-12.6 (Nov1)
1. Preliminary Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea National Oil Corporation The Korea Customs Service Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for November data)
Private consumption is expected to be positively affected by an improvement in consumption related situations, although it is being limited by domestic and external uncertainties such as the European financial unease. Inflationary pressures, especially on grocery prices, is weakening, while the recovery in employment is continuing. Employment (y-o-y, thousand) 355 (May 2011)
472 (Jun)
335 (Jul)
490 (Aug)
264 (Sep)
501 (Oct)
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 3.9 (May 2011)
4.2 (Jun)
4.5 (Jul)
4.7 (Aug)
3.8 (Sep)
3.6 (Oct)
4.2 (Nov)
Fresh food prices (y-o-y, %) 3.5 (May 2011)
6.6 (Jun)
11.1 (Jul)
13.9 (Aug)
-4.2 (Sep)
-10.1 (Oct)
-4.2 (Nov)
The consumer sentiment index rose above the benchmark in November, showing that consumer sentiment is gradually improving. Consumer sentiment index (CSI, base=100) 100 (Apr 2011)
10
December 2011
104 (May)
102 (Jun)
102 (Jul)
99 (Aug)
99 (Sep)
100 (Oct)
103 (Nov)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter of 2011 fell 0.8 percent quarter-onquarter, and rose 1.0 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Facility investment
2
q-o-q - Machinery - Transportation equipment
2010
1
20111
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
-9.8
25.0
29.1
30.5
26.6
15.9
11.7
7.5
1.0
-
-
2.8
7.9
5.6
-1.0
-1.1
3.9
-0.8
-13.5
30.8
30.0
35.3
38.9
20.5
13.9
9.0
-
2.8
6.7
24.2
15.6
-6.6
0.6
3.2
2.0
-
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Facility investment in October slipped 12.1 percent month-on-month and 11.9 percent yearon-year, as investment in both machinery and transportation equipment declined. It is expected to further struggle as corporate investment sentiment is worsening amid external uncertainties. Leading indicators sent mixed signals, with domestic machinery orders increasing and machinery imports and the manufacturing operation ratio decreasing. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q31
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
-9.4
25.1
29.3
13.6
6.6
4.8
-3.5
-3.3
-4.3
-11.9
q-o-q, m-o-m
-
-
7.2
-5.4
-0.2
3.0
-0.9
1.9
-2.2
-12.1
- Machinery
-12.6
30.5
37.4
17.1
6.8
7.0
-3.6
-5.3
-2.5
-11.3
Facility investment
- Transportation equipment
4.6
4.3
-0.1
-1.2
5.6
-5.7
-3.2
8.8
-11.9
-14.5
-10.3
11.2
-0.2
11.3
19.5
8.2
1.3
6.0
3.3
14.2
-
-
-3.6
4.1
3.6
3.9
-9.4
1.0
-4.3
0.4
- Public
62.4
-37.9
-71.7
31.4
-10.3
82.0
6.1
8.0
-19.1
198.7
- Private
-18.2
21.8
22.0
7.8
22.7
3.1
0.9
5.9
5.5
2.7
-16.6
40.4
40.0
26.3
8.0
10.5
9.2
11.3
3.3
-7.6
Manufacturing operation ratio
-3.5
8.8
1.8
5.3
2.6
-0.3
-0.1
0.6
1.9
-2.2
Facility investment adjustment pressure2
-3.7
9.5
3.4
4.6
4.1
1.6
1.2
1.1
3.3
2.3
Domestic machinery orders q-o-q, m-o-m
Machinery imports
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, the Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports data)
2011
Business survey indices (base=100) for manufacturing facility investment projections Source: The Bank of Korea
12
December 2011
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
102
103
103
100
98
96
97
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter of 2011 rose 1.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, and dropped 4.6 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 20101
2009
20111
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
3.4
-1.4
4.3
-2.3
-3.1
-2.9
-11.9
-6.8
-4.6
-
-
2.0
-4.2
-0.8
-1.0
-6.7
1.6
1.8
- Building construction
-2.3
-2.9
4.5
-5.1
-6.3
-2.8
-11.3
-3.7
-
- Civil engineering works
11.6
0.5
4.0
1.0
1.7
-2.9
-12.7
-10.4
-
Construction investment
2
q-o-q
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
The value of construction completion (constant) in October increased 3.1 percent month-onmonth and 3.0 percent year-on-year, as both building construction and civil engineering works rose. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1.6
-3.3
-6.8
-4.3
-12.6
-6.6
-8.6
-9.51
-0.8
3.0
-
-
-4.3
-1.6
-4.6
3.5
-6.1
0.81
4.9
3.1
- Building construction
-6.4
-7.1
-12.3
-8.5
-15.2
-8.4
-8.1
-10.71
0.7
2.6
- Civil engineering works
16.1
2.2
1.9
1.2
-9.2
-4.3
-9.3
-7.9
-2.9
3.5
5.0
-18.7
-3.6
-40.2
-12.8
-3.3
0.9
75.4
-5.0
56.3
-
-
-1.4
-22.9
12.8
9.8
8.2
65.8
-25.5
-4.1
-14.2
-9.9
-1.3
-46.4
-9.7
-4.0
8.6
87.7
4.1
38.4
44.3
-29.5
-7.0
-29.9
-17.0
-1.5
-11.0
50.7
-22.4
113.4
-12.9
19.3
-14.3
18.1
21.5
3.8
58.7
87.8
59.2
20.1
Value of construction completion(constant) q-o-q, m-o-m
Construction orders (current value) q-o-q, m-o-m - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
1
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
Construction investment is forecast to slowly recover given recovery signs in the housing market such as a drop in unsold houses and improving leading indicators of building construction orders, the building permit area, and building permits for new homes. As of October 31, building permits for new homes increased 88.4 percent year on year. However, the poor corporate sentiment of construction industries is likely to limit construction investment.
2009
Unsold houses
2010
2011
Dec
Dec
Aug
Sep
Oct
123,000
89,000
69,000
68,000
66,000
2011
Business survey indices (base=100) for construction projections Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
14
December 2011
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
76.8
64.1
74.0
72.2
69.0
70.3
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in November increased 13.8 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$46.97 billion. Despite external uncertainties, exports in November posted a month-on-month gain, returning to double-digit growth year-on-year. By regional category, exports to Japan (up 29.5%), the ASEAN countries (up 27.9%) and China (up 8.3%) remained on an upward track year-on-year, with those to the US (up 22.5%) turning positive. By business category, exports of petroleum products (up 45.8%), automobiles (up 30.2%), and steel products (up 20.7%) surged year-on-year, while those of semiconductors (down 0.8%) and mobile phones (down 30.7%) dropped. (US$ billion) 2009
Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports Imports (y-o-y, %) Average daily imports
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov1
Jan-Nov1
363.53
466.38
116.32
128.75
130.99
142.71
141.23
46.55
46.82
46.97
508.73
-13.9
28.3
22.7
23.8
29.6
18.7
21.7
18.8
8.0
13.8
20.5
1.30
1.70
1.72
1.79
1.99
2.08
2.05
2.12
2.08
1.96
2.03
323.08
425.21
105.70
115.73
123.79
134.37
134.94
45.27
42.76
43.06
478.92
-25.8
31.6
24.6
24.6
26.1
27.2
27.7
29.3
15.6
11.3
24.3
1.16
1.46
1.57
1.61
1.87
1.96
2.05
2.06
1.90
1.79
1.91
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in November increased 11.3 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$43.06 billion. Commodity imports slowed down in November with falling international commodity prices and a drop in crude oil imports from 84 million barrels in the previous month to 74 million barrels, posting a decelerating year-on-year increase of 14.9 percent from 26.2 percent a month ago. Capital goods imports went up to US$12.71 billion from US$11.5 billion in the previous month, growing 3.7 percent year-on-year, a shift from last month’s 3.9 percent decrease.
2011
Reuters index (average)
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
3,145
3,038
2,978
2,781
2,772
The current account surplus (preliminary) in November was US$3.91 billion, staying in the black. (US$ billion) 2009
Trade balance 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
16
December 2011
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov1
Jan-Nov1
40.45
41.17
10.62
13.02
7.20
8.34
6.29
1.28
4.07
3.91
29.81
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production in October fell 0.7 percent month-on-month due to weak automobiles and audio-visual communications equipment, while rising 6.2 percent year-on-year. By business category, semiconductors and parts (up 1.2%) and chemical products (up 3.1%) increased month-on-month, while automobiles (down 3.0%) and audio-visual communications equipment (down 4.3%) went down. The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio increased month-on-month by 5.4 percentage points, as the inventory added 3.2 percent and the shipments shed 1.7 percent. By business category, the shipments of refined petroleum products (up 2.6%) and chemical products (up 1.3%) increased month-on-month, while those of automobiles (down 6.1%) and semiconductors and parts (down 1.3%) declined. The inventories of semiconductors and parts (up 11.6%) and chemical products (up 4.1%) climbed month-on-month, while those of primary metals (down 3.8%) and computers (down 21.4%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector lost 1.8 percentage points to 79.5 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010 Oct
Q2
Q31
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
-
1.1
-2.5
0.0
-0.1
-1.9
1.2
-0.7
(y-o-y)
16.2
10.9
13.4
7.2
5.1
4.7
6.9
6.2
- Manufacturing
16.7
11.2
13.7
7.4
5.1
4.7
7.1
6.3
∙ICT 3
25.2
19.1
13.4
10.5
5.4
2.7
10.2
16.9
∙Automobiles
23.1
11.3
15.8
12.1
16.2
22.7
15.5
11.7
Shipment
14.4
9.9
13.5
7.2
5.0
4.3
7.5
4.0
- Domestic demand
11.5
6.6
11.1
3.8
2.6
2.6
4.2
0.2
- Exports
18.2
14.5
16.8
11.6
7.9
6.2
11.8
9.0
17.4
19.1
18.8
10.0
10.8
11.9
10.8
14.8
81.2
81.2
79.7
81.4
81.3
80.4
81.3
79.5
7.2
7.8
7.6
5.8
3.9
3.6
3.8
4.0
Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
2011
Q3
Annual
Inventory
4
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity 1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity, and gas industry 3. Information and Communications Technology 4. End-period Source: Statistics Korea
Mining and manufacturing production is expected to continue a moderate recovery. However there are still possibilities that the index will be affected by external uncertainties, with a drop in major exports, particularly semiconductors. Automobile production (thousand) 438 (Jun 2011)
392 (Jul)
320 (Aug)
374 (Sep)
415 (Oct)
429 (Nov)
OECD leading indicator (base=100) -0.5 (Jun 2011)
-0.5 (Jul)
-0.5 (Aug)
-0.4 (Sep)
Semiconductor exports (US$ billion) 4.21 (Jun 2011)
18
December 2011
3.97 (Jul)
4.11 (Aug)
4.59 (Sep)
4.35 (Oct)
4.10 (Nov)
6-1
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in October expanded 0.7 percent from the previous month helped by robust wholesale & retail sales and financial & insurance services. On a year-on-year basis, service activity rose 3.5 percent. Wholesale & retail sales had temporarily plunged in September due to Chuseok holidays falling earlier than usual and its effect already having been reflected in the previous month’s index. In October, however, the index significantly increased, affected by a low base effect from the previous month and by slower growth in consumer prices. Consumer prices (y-o-y) 3.9 (May 2011)
4.2 (Jun)
4.5 (Jul)
4.7 (Aug)
3.8 (Sep)
3.6 (Oct)
Fresh food index (y-o-y) 3.5 (May 2011)
6.6 (Jun)
11.1 (Jul)
13.9 (Aug)
-4.2 (Sep)
-10.1 (Oct)
After the EU summit held on October 27, financial markets stabilized on expectations for a resolution to Europe’s debt crisis. With financial markets regaining stability, financial & insurance services rose 2.1 percent month-on-month. KOSPI (points) 1,796.1 (end-September)
1,766.4 (October 10)
1,805.1 (October 20)
1,909.0 (October 31)
Real estate & renting declined 3.8 percent month-on-month and 4.3 percent year-on-year, falling for 17 consecutive months. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2009
2010
Annual Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q31
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
2.3
3.2
2.7
3.3
4.2
4.9
3.8
3.5
100.0
1.8
- Wholesale & retail sales
21.8
-0.4
5.7
5.0
4.7
4.0
4.8
3.3
4.7
2.4
3.5
- Transportation services
9.0
-6.6
12.0
10.1
10.0
7.2
3.5
4.3
4.8
4.1
1.4
- Hotels & restaurants
7.7
-1.4
1.2
1.3
1.7
-0.6
1.9
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.5
- Information & communications services
8.4
0.9
1.9
2.2
3.6
3.9
3.4
5.4
6.0
5.9
6.5
Service activity index
- Financial & insurance services
3.9
2011
15.3
7.8
4.6
1.4
8.2
7.2
8.2
9.0
11.0
8.2
7.4
- Real estate & renting
6.3
5.3
-8.6
-15.9
-24.2
-17.7
-11.5
-3.4
-3.1
-3.6
-4.3
- Professional, scientific & technical services
4.8
1.2
-0.5
-3.9
-1.3
-3.6
-1.4
3.8
3.7
7.7
3.1
- Business services
2.9
-3.0
7.5
7.6
8.6
5.7
5.5
3.0
2.7
1.3
2.3
- Educational services
10.8
2.1
2.0
0.5
3.1
1.1
0.2
1.9
2.8
1.0
0.7
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
10.4
8.8
8.6
4.6
6.2
5.0
5.1
5.0
5.7
7.6
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
2.7
2.4
1.2
2.1
1.0
2.3
-0.1
- Membership organizations
3.8
-2.1
4.3
5.0
4.5
2.9
2.4
1.5
1.1
1.1
-2.3
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
3.7
5.1
1.7
6.4
0.0
-3.1
0.2
7.1
-1.1
3.9
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Amid increased volatility in financial markets, service activity in November is expected to be affected by weak wholesale & retail sales and financial & insurance services.
20
December 2011
es
usin ty m ess ana sup gem port ent serv & ices Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea lthc are &s ocia l we Ente serv lfare rtai ices nme nt, c ultu ral & sp Me serv orts & o mbersh ices ther ip o pers rgan ona izat l se ions rvic , re es pair Sew mat erage eria , w ls re aste cove ma ry & nage rem men edi t, acti ation vitie s
Prof
& re ntin g ess iona l , tech scie nica ntif Bus l se ic & ines rvic s fa es cili b
rvic
s
ns
rant
ion
atio
e se
tate
ranc
l es
insu
stau
unic
& re
omm
els
ex
tail
rtat
& re
spo
ale
Tran
oles
&c
Rea
l&
tion
ncia
rma
Fina
Info
Hot
Wh
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
October 2011 service industry by business
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in October increased by 501,000 from a year earlier to 24,670,000 and the employment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 59.9 percent. By industry, services (up 555,000) led the upward trend. In addition, employment in construction (up 41,000), which had remained weak in the previous months, contributed to payroll employment gains. By status of workers, regular workers (up 517,000) continued to increase. The number of daily workers (down 91,000) and unpaid family business employees (down 36,000), which had temporarily plummeted in September due to Chuseok holidays, decelerated the pace of a decline.
2009 Annual Number of employed (million)
2010
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
2011
Q3
Q4
Oct
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
23.51 23.63 23.83 23.04 24.17 24.12 23.99 24.17 23.46 24.57 24.48 24.32 24.67
Employment rate (%)
58.6
58.7
58.7
57.0
59.6
59.3
58.9
59.4
57.4
59.9
59.5
59.1
59.9
(seasonally adjusted)
58.6
58.5
58.7
58.3
58.9
58.9
58.6
58.7
58.8
59.2
59.1
58.6
59.2
-72
-6
323
132
433
369
358
316
423
402
363
264
501
-34
110
405
296
518
414
393
371
451
39
414
323
534
-126
-49
191
61
172
262
269
241
228
112
-12
-48
-55
- Construction
-91 -107
33
-61
44
92
57
94
-3
-41
-35
-50
41
- Services
179
261
200
313
325
83
80
55
224
331
472
434
555
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand) (Excluding agriculture, forestry & fishery) - Manufacturing
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-38 -116
-82 -164
-85
-45
-35
-55
-28
3
-51
-59
-33
- Wage workers
247
385
517
371
623
541
532
488
519
421
392
275
430
∙Regular workers
383
515
697
651
766
671
699
652
605
621
572
547
517
22
105
-34
-37
42
-26 -114
-81
-88 -137
-76
-60
-5
-63 -104 -213
-91
∙Temporary workers ∙Daily workers
-158 -235 -146 -243 -185 -104
-84
2
- Non-wage workers
-319 -391 -194 -239 -189 -172 -174 -167
-96
-19
-29
-11
71
∙Self-employed workers
-259 -279 -118 -106
-91 -130 -146 -131 -115
-39
34
88
107
161
266
221
208
181
248
146
88
157
181
155
83
253
-57
-58
-49
-74
-1
2
20
21
17
-7
-34
-13
-83 -104
-66
117
188
207
212
142
15
245
163
-43
-12
-58
-44
-173 -149
-4
-42
-13
31
89
181
- Female
-103
-94
- 15 to 29
-127
-77
- 30 to 39
- Male
-53
- 40 to 49
-24
-46
29
-21
48
40
50
26
77
59
46
12
55
- 50 to 59
198
230
294
251
342
295
287
262
286
294
270
241
300
54
37
47
-44
114
57
60
26
143
137
131
114
192
- 60 or more Source: Statistics Korea
22
December 2011
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-3
Share of employed by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
The number of unemployed persons in October decreased by 96,000 year-on-year to 736,000 and the year-on-year unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) dropped 0.4 percentage points to 2.9 percent. The unemployment rate declined in all age groups, with the youth unemployment rate falling 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 6.7 percent.
2009
2010
Annual
Q4
Number of unemployed (thousand)
889
817
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
Annual
Q1
920 1,130
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
Oct
Q1
868
873
808
832 1,028
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
865
786
758
736
119
60
31
222
-75
-13
-10
33
-101
-3
-88 -100
-96
- Male
80
25
-7
83
-47
-48
-16
-5
-70
-32
-48
-39
-46
- Female
40
36
38
139
-29
35
6
38
-32
29
-40
-61
-50
Unemployment rate (%)
3.6
3.3
3.7
4.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.3
4.2
3.4
3.1
3.0
2.9
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.6
3.5
3.7
4.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.9
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
- 15 to 29
8.1
7.6
8.0
9.5
7.7
7.6
7.1
7.0
8.8
7.9
6.7
6.3
6.7
- 30 to 39
3.6
3.3
3.5
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.2
3.4
4.0
3.5
3.2
3.1
2.9
- 40 to 49
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.9
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
- 50 to 59
2.5
2.2
2.5
3.2
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.0
2.1
2.2
1.8
- 60 or more
1.6
1.5
2.8
5.8
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
4.5
2.3
2.1
2.2
1.7
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in October was up 49,000 from a year earlier to 15,760,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted) rose 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 61.7 percent. The number of workers quitting jobs due to housework (up 141,000), rest, time-off and leisure (up 124,000), and childcare (up 21,000) increased, while those who quit jobs due to education (down 97,000) and old age (down 6,000) decreased.
2009 Annual
2011
2010
Q4
Annual Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Oct
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Economically inactive population (million) 15.70 15.83 15.84 16.25 15.49 15.66 15.96 15.71 16.39 15.56 15.85 16.07 15.76 Labor force participation rate (%)
60.6
60.7
61.0
59.8
61.8
61.5
60.8
61.4
59.9
62.0
61.5
61.0
61.7
(seasonally adjusted)
60.6
60.6
61.0
61.0
61.0
61.1
60.8
60.8
61.1
61.3
61.0
60.6
61.1
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousand)
447
456
143
166
146
128
133
130
138
66
191
294
49
15 -125 -118 -126 -149 -107 -125
-44
-16
17
25
21
- Childcare
40
- Housework
148
235
201
237
175
203
189
234
130
27
143
248
141
- Education
31
-36
12
-74
23
46
55
37
-16
-39
-78
-50
-97
80
193
59
43
25
-56 -187
-27
15
-27
- Old age - Rest, time-off and leisure Source: Statistics Korea
24
December 2011
88
92
123
123
1 -103 -25
241
-58
-22
-32
-6
163
193
202
124
8-4
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-5
Unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-6
Economically active population Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
25
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock price index in November dropped 3.2 percent month-on-month to 1,848 points from the previous month’s 1,909 points. Due to weak investment sentiment affected by concerns over a spread of the eurozone debt crisis, sluggish economic indicators in the US and China, and the US congressional supercommittee’s failure to reach an agreement on a long-term debt-reduction plan, the Korean stock market fell to 1,776 points on November 25. The index decelerated the decline thereafter, boosted by expectations over improved US economic indicators ahead of the holiday shopping season and the EU’s policy coordination such as agreeing on the expansion of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). Foreign investors shifted to a net-selling position of 3.1 trillion won from the previous month’s net-buying position of 1.2 trillion won. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI Oct 2011
Nov 2011
Stock price index
1,909.0
1,847.5
Market capitalization
1,081.8
KOSDAQ Change
Oct 2011
Nov 2011
-61.5 (-3.2%)
490.7
492.8
+2.1 (+0.4%)
1,049.1
-32.6 (-3.0%)
102.0
103.4
+1.4 (+1.4%)
1
Change1
Average daily trade value
6.7
5.4
-1.3 (-19.5%)
3.04
2.81
-0.2 (-7.5%)
Foreign stock ownership
33.1
33.0
-0.1 (-0.3%)
9.1
8.5
-0.6 (-6.4%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in November increased 33.0 won to wrap up the month at 1,143.0 won from 1,110.0 won at the end of October. The won/dollar exchange rate climbed due to concerns over a spread of Europe’s debt problems, particularly soaring Treasury bond yields in Spain and France. Despite the Japanese government’s currency market intervention, the yen strengthened and the won/100 yen exchange rate rose 69.8 won from the end of the previous month. (End-period) 2007
2008
2009
2010
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Oct
2011 Nov
Change1
Won/Dollar
936.1
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,110.0
1,143.0
-0.7
Won/100 Yen
828.6
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,398.0
1,467.8
-5.1
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
26
December 2011
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
27
9.3 Bond market The 5-year Treasury bond yield dropped 14 basis points in November to 3.49 percent from the previous month’s 3.63 percent. Treasury bond yields fell due to flight to safety trade fueled by Euro debt contagion fears, foreign investment inflows to Treasury bond futures, and a drop in US Treasury bond yields. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Sep
Oct
2011 Nov
Change1
Call rate (1 day)
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.01
2.51
3.28
3.26
3.27
+1
CD (91 days)
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.88
2.80
3.58
3.57
3.55
-2
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.44
3.38
3.55
3.51
3.38
-13
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.56
4.27
4.36
4.35
4.22
-13
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.98
4.08
3.66
3.63
3.49
-14
1. Basis point, changes in November 2011 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in September expanded 4.2 percent from a year earlier excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009. Although the overseas sector’s surplus narrowed, the month-on-month M2 growth accelerated from 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent, helped by expanded private sector credit from 4.8 percent to 7.3 percent and increased money supply from the government sector. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
M12
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Jun
Jul
Aug
2011 Sep
Sep1
-1.8
16.3
11.8
14.5
10.7
10.8
11.2
5.4
3.8
5.4
5.14
425.24
4
1,729.54 2,243.74
M2
14.3
10.3
8.7
9.4
9.5
8.6
7.4
3.0
3.2
4.0
4.2
Lf 3
11.9
7.9
8.2
8.5
9.1
8.2
7.1
4.1
4.6
5.6
5.74
1. Balance at end September 2011, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary
In October, bank deposits accelerated increases, as regional government funds and household funds from the Korean Federation of Community Credit Cooperatives flowed into time deposits. Treasury fund inflows into instant access deposit accounts also contributed to the growth. Asset management company (AMC) deposits also grew at a faster pace as MMF significantly expanded due to inflows of Treasury funds and bank funds that had flowed out at the end of the previous quarter. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2009 Annual
2010 Oct
2011
Annual
Oct
Aug
Sep
Oct
Oct1
Bank deposits
54.8
-6.8
36.9
13.7
3.9
6.8
13.0
1,098.9
AMC deposits
-27.6
-7.3
-16.7
0.1
4.4
3.0
9.3
1,318.4
1. Balance at end October, trillion won
28
December 2011
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
29
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account surplus (preliminary) in October posted US$4.23 billion, expanding from the previous month’s US$2.83 billion. The accumulated current account surplus from January to October 2011 registered US$19.23 billion. Despite Europe’s debt problems, the goods account surplus widened to US$3.65 billion from the previous month’s US$2.10 billion, helped by robust exports to emerging markets such as China and the ASEAN countries. The service account showed a near balance, from a US$70 million deficit to a surplus of US$3 million, as the construction service account surplus narrowed while the travel account deficit improved, affected by the Chinese national holiday at the end of October. The primary income account surplus expanded to US$640 million from the previous month’s US$540 million owing to decreasing interest payments. Meanwhile, the secondary income account swung to a deficit of US$60 million from a surplus of US$120 million a month earlier, due to increased outward remittances. (US$ billion) 2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Aug
Sep
Oct
Jan-Oct
Current account
32.79
29.39
10.12
8.47
2.61
5.49
6.90
0.29
2.83
4.23
19.23
- Goods balance
37.87
40.08
11.57
11.91
5.84
7.66
7.20
0.37
2.10
3.65
24.35
- Service balance
-6.64
-8.63
-1.79
-2.57
-2.54
-0.80
-1.20
-0.58
0.07
0.00
-4.53
- Income balance
2.28
1.01
1.29
0.03
0.39
-0.82
1.31
0.70
0.54
0.64
1.52
- Current transfers
-0.71
-3.08
-0.95
-0.91
-1.08
-0.55
-0.42
-0.20
0.12
-0.06
-2.11
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in October registered an outflow of US$4.37 billion. The accumulated capital and financial account from January to October 2011 posted a deficit of US$22.25 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -3.96 (May, 2011)
-3.25 (Jun)
-2.47 (Jul)
-1.69 (Aug)
-4.16 (Sep)
-4.37 (Oct1)
1. Preliminary
The direct investment account recorded a net outflow of US$1.13 billion, declining from the previous month’s outflow of US$2.10 billion as foreign direct investment increased while overseas direct investment by locals decreased. The portfolio investment account expanded to a net inflow of US$3.92 billion from the previous month’s US$1.77 billion as the net inflow of debt securities investment funds continued and foreign investor funds for equity securities investment shifted to a net inflow. The financial derivatives account swung to a net inflow of US$110 million from the previous month’s outflow of US$150 million. Meanwhile, the other investment account shifted to an inflow of US$2.81 billion from the previous month’s outflow of US$16.75 billion due to an increase in local banks’ borrowings. The current account in November is expected to maintain a surplus, helped by a continuing surplus in the goods account.
30
December 2011
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices stabilized in November to a monthly rate of 0.1 percent, but year-on-year growth accelerated to 4.2 percent due to a low base effect. The prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products moderated, along with those of personal services. However, prices of certain agricultural products and processed food rose. Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products, rose 3.5 percent year-onyear. However, core consumer prices based on the newly-adopted OECD method, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.8 percent. Consumer prices of basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 4.5 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. Expected inflation inched down from the previous month, but the upward trend in import prices accelerated. Expected inflation (%) 3.9 (Jun)
4.0 (Jul)
4.2 (Aug)
4.3 (Sep)
4.2 (Oct)
4.1 (Nov)
Import price increases (m-o-m, %, won) 10.0 (Aug)
14.0 (Sep)
16.0 (Oct)
Consumer price inflation
(%) 2010
2011
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Month-on-Month
-0.5 0.4
1.2
0.7
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.7
Year-on-Year
-0.1 -0.2 0.1
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.9
4.1
3.8
3.9
4.2
4.5
4.7
3.8
3.6
4.2
Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products (y-o-y)
-
-
2.1
2.6
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.5
Consumer prices excluding food and energy (y-o-y)
-
-
1.9
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.8
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
-
-
4.1
4.6
4.7
4.1
4.0
4.5
4.9
5.2
3.8
3.6
4.5
Source: Statistics Korea
The prices of most agricultural, livestock & fishery products fell as supply chains stabilized, but those of rice, chili powder and a few others continued to rise due to a smaller harvest. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in November (m-o-m, %) Chinese cabbage (-37.7), tomato (-27.0), radish (-26.1), pork (-2.9), rice (2.8), green chili (10.5), chestnut (24.6), cucumber (30.8), squash (33.9)
Oil product prices fell slightly (down 0.1%, m-o-m) as a result of the weaker won, but processed food and textile prices rose, thus accelerating the overall upward trend in the prices of industrial products (up 0.7%, m-o-m). Rents continued to rise (up 0.5%, m-o-m) due to strong demand for rental housing. The price moderations in personal services persisted (down 0.1%, m-o-m), influenced in part by cheaper school lunches.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors
Month-on-Month (%) Contribution (%p)
Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
0.1
-1.5
0.7
-0.1
0.1
-0.12
0.21
-0.01
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
0.5
-0.2
-0.1
0.04
-0.03
-0.03
Year-on-Year (%)
4.2
3.4
6.4
16.0
5.1
-1.2
3.7
Contribution (%p)
4.17
0.27
2.02
0.85
0.47
-0.17
1.18
Source: Statistics Korea
32
December 2011
11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
33
11.2. International oil and commodity prices In November, the prices of international oil and domestic oil products edged up from the previous month. Despite predictions that the European financial crisis would lead to lower demand, international oil prices rose due to major economies’ decision to expand dollar liquidity*, decreasing crude oil inventories in the OECD member nations, and increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East such as Iran’s nuclear threat. * Six central banks (US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank) agreed to lower interest rates on dollar swaps by 50 basis points on November 30.
OECD crude oil inventories in September (International Energy Agency, as of end-Nov) 2.684 billion barrels (down 0.4% m-o-m) (US$/barrel, period average)
Dubai crude
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Annual
Annual
May
Jun
Jul
2011 Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
94.3
61.9
78.1
108.0
107.5
110.2
105.0
105.7
103.5
107.9
Brent crude
97.5
61.7
79.7
114.3
114.0
116.8
110.0
111.5
109.1
110.5
WTI crude
99.9
61.9
79.5
101.3
96.3
97.3
86.3
85.6
86.5
86.5
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Domestic oil prices inched up, reflecting price increases in international oil. Diesel prices extended the gains, particularly due to higher demand for heating fuel. (Won/liter, period average) 2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Annual
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Gasoline prices
1,692
1,601
1,710
1,938
1,915
1,935
1,946
1,945
1,978
1,981
Diesel prices
1,614
1,397
1,503
1,773
1,736
1,754
1,758
1,746
1,772
1,788
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Prices of international commodities declined in November due to expectations that recessionary factors such as the European financial crisis would lower demand. Copper prices rose as a result of production disruptions caused by strikes at copper mines in Indonesia, but other non-ferrous metal prices fell due to uncertainties in the global economy and concerns about lower demand. Prices of non-ferrous metals in November (m-o-m, %) Electrolytic copper (2.8), tin (-2.5), aluminum (-4.9), nickel (-5.4)
International grain prices continued to fall amid lingering uncertainties in the global economy and expectations for increased grain production with a bumper harvest in Russia. World grain production outlook for 2011~12 (USDA, Oct) 2.28 billion tons (up 2 million tons, m-o-m)
Prices of grain in November (m-o-m, %) Corn (-1.0), wheat (-1.8), soybean (-3.7), raw sugar (-7.0)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Annual
Annual
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
2,536
2,079
2,553
3,128
3,143
3,145
3,038
2,978
2,781
2,770
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
34
December 2011
2011
Source: KOREA PDS
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
35
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market The upward trend of nationwide apartment sales prices slightly accelerated in November, with prices rising 0.6 percent from the previous month. Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area declined 0.1 percent month-on-month. Apartment sales price increases accelerated in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, in particular Busan (up 1.2%, m-o-m), Daegu (up 1.6%, m-o-m), South Chungcheong Province (up 1.7%, m-o-m), and Ulsan (up 2.7%, m-o-m). Apartment prices in 5 metropolitan cities and other cities climbed 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent each, surpassing the national average.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Annual
Annual
Nationwide
2.3
1.6
2.5
3.1
2.9
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.09
0.07
0.06
Seoul
3.2
2.6
-2.2
0.6
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.04 -0.03
-0.04
-0.05
Gangnam2
-1.9
3.9
-1.8
0.8
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.05 -0.05
-0.06
-0.07
Gangbuk3
9.4
0.9
-2.7
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.03 -0.01
-0.02
-0.03
Seoul metropolitan area
2.9
0.7
-2.9
0.8
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.02 -0.02
-0.03
-0.04
5 metropolitan cities
1.0
2.8
8.7
5.6
6.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.2
0.30
0.14
0.13
1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
2011 Q1
Q2
3. Northern Seoul
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Oct 311 Nov 71 Nov 141 Nov 211
Nov
0.13
0.16
Source: Kookmin Bank
Nationwide apartment rental price increases slowed down for the second straight month in November (up 0.7%, m-o-m). Price increases decelerated sharply in Seoul (up 0.3%, m-o-m), the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.2%, m-o-m) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.0%, m-o-m). Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (-0.1), Seocho (0.1), Songpa (0.0), Gangdong (-0.1)
Nationwide apartment rental prices
Nationwide Seoul Gangnam2 Gangbuk
3
Seoul metropolitan area 5 metropolitan cities 1. Weekly trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
0.8
4.5
8.8
5.5
3.6
1.0
1.5
1.8
1.1
0.7
0.13
0.10
0.05
0.03
-1.8
8.1
7.4
5.1
1.5
1.1
1.7
2.2
1.0
0.3
0.06
0.03
-0.01
-0.04
-3.6
10.4
8.8
4.6
1.5
1.2
1.7
2.1
0.9
0.1
0.01
0.00
-0.04
-0.05
Oct 311 Nov 71 Nov 141 Nov 211
0.5
5.4
5.6
5.7
1.4
1.0
1.8
2.3
1.2
0.5
0.11
0.06
-0.04
-0.05
-0.4
5.6
7.2
5.6
2.2
0.9
1.6
2.0
1.1
0.2
0.00
-0.01
-0.05
-0.05
1.6
3.9
12.0
5.8
5.5
1.0
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.3
0.28
0.19
0.12
0.08
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in October increased 12.4 percent from the previous month’s 43,118 to 48,444. The transactions were up 17.2 percent from 41,342 a year earlier.
Apartment sales transactions
(Monthly average, thousand)
2007 2008 2009
2010
2011
Annual Annual Annual Annual Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Nationwide
38
39
44
40
Source: Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
36
December 2011
34
41
54
63
45
52
59
56
48
47
Jul Aug Sep Oct 43
44
43
48
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in October rose for the twelfth consecutive month (up 0.1%, m-o-m), but were still 1.25 percent lower than the pre-crisis peak reached in October 2008. Land prices were higher compared to a year ago, when the prices fell 0.04 percent. The pace of increase slightly accelerated nationwide. Monthly land prices in Seoul (up 0.04%), the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.08%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.13%) and Incheon (up 0.05%) continued to rise. Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.10 (Jun, 2011)
0.10 (Jul)
0.10 (Aug)
0.09 (Sep)
0.08 (Oct)
Land prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.12 percent month-onmonth in October, continuing the upward trend since October 2010. Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.09 (Jun, 2011)
0.10 (Jul)
0.09 (Aug)
0.11 (Sep)
0.12 (Oct)
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007 2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Q4
2010 Annual
Q3
2011 Q4
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nationwide
3.88
-0.31 0.96
0.94 1.05 -0.05 0.11
0.09 0.09 0.11 0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.10
Seoul
5.88
-1.00 1.40
0.81 0.53 -0.25 0.39
0.12 0.12 0.15 0.12
0.09
0.07
0.07
0.05
0.05
0.04
Gyeonggi
4.22
-0.26 1.22
1.36 1.49 -0.08 0.07
0.08 0.08 0.10 0.11
0.12
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.13
0.13
Incheon
4.86
1.37 1.99
1.70 1.43 -0.10 0.02
0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.05
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in October recorded 200,000 land lots, up 10.5 percent from the previous month and up 10.3 percent from 181,000 a year earlier. Land transactions were 4.6 percent less than the most recent five-year October average of 210,000 land lots. Monthly land transactions increased significantly in areas such as Busan (up 19.7%), Gwangju (up 29.5%), North Jeolla Province (up 31.6%), and South Jeolla Province (up 27.2%).
Land sales transactions
(Land lot, thousand)
2007 2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual 1 Annual1 Annual1 Nov Dec Annual 1 Nov Dec Jan Nationwide
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep
Oct
208
208
203
207
241
187
208
257
191
176
244
226
212
207
196
196
181
200
Seoul
33
26
22
19
21
16
18
24
18
17
23
19
18
18
15
17
16
18
Gyeonggi
49
45
46
48
58
41
45
58
46
38
52
46
43
40
40
39
39
41
Incheon
13
13
10
11
12
8
9
11
8
9
13
11
13
10
11
9
9
9
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
38
December 2011
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in October increased 0.3 percent month-on-month and 4.8 percent year-onyear. Output from services (up 0.7%, m-o-m) and construction (up 3.1%, m-o-m) rose, while public administration (down 0.2%, m-o-m) and mining & manufacturing (down 0.7%, m-o-m) declined. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.3 points in October. Two components of the coincident composite index rose, one of which is the value of construction completion. Meanwhile five components, including the volume of imports and manufacturing operation ratio, were lower compared to the previous month. Components of coincident composite index in October (m-o-m) Value of construction completion (2.9%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.2%), service activity (0.0%), mining & manufacturing production (-0.5%), wholesale & retail sales (-0.6%), domestic shipment (-0.9%), manufacturing operation ratio (-1.1%), volume of imports (-1.6%)
The year-on-year leading composite index fell 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among the components of the leading composite index, two, including the value of construction orders received, were higher compared to the previous month, while eight components, such as the composite stock price index and value of capital goods imports, dropped. Components of the leading composite index in October (m-o-m) Value of construction orders received (4.6%), liquidity in the financial institutions (0.2%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.1%p), consumer expectations index (-0.6p), value of machinery orders received (-1.0%), indicator of inventory cycle (-1.3%p), net terms of trade (-1.6%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-2.3%p), value of capital goods imports (-2.7%), composite stock price index (-5.1%)
2011 Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul1
Aug1
Sep1
Oct1
Industrial output (m-o-m, %)
2.8
-1.3
1.7
1.7
-1.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
(y-o-y, %)
3.4
3.2
4.4
4.0
3.1
4.3
4.9
4.8
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.4
-0.3
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.4
-0.4
0.1
100.6
99.9
100.2
100.6
100.9
100.9
100.1
99.8
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) 12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%) (m-o-m, %p) 1. Preliminary
40
December 2011
0.0
-0.7
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.0
-0.8
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.1
-0.4
-0.2
1.6
1.0
1.3
1.7
2.0
1.9
1.4
1.0
-0.7
-0.6
0.3
0.4
0.3
-0.1
-0.5
-0.4
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
41
Policy Issues 2012 Economic Policies Aim at Stronger Economy and Improved Living Quality
Background of the 2012 policies The Korean government has made persistent efforts to ride out the global financial crisis and create jobs, while steadily working on improving the lives of working class families and preparing for the future. Korea has quickly overcome the crisis and employment has been on the rise. However, the real economy has not recovered enough, and there are risks from the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. The global economy may slow down and international financial markets would remain highly volatile. To successfully deal with risks from external uncertainties and continue on the path to economic recovery, the Korean government designed directions for 2012, aiming at stimulating the economy and improving the lives of working class families.
Key policies for 2012 The 2012 policies prioritize swiftly managing possible risks from the global debt crisis, while boosting the economy and improving living quality. To preempt potential difficulties from global uncertainties, the government will continue to run an emergency response system through which it will regularly assess contingency plans,
42
December 2011
and improve the fundamentals of the household, corporate, finance, foreign exchange and public sectors. To stimulate the economy, the government will create an investment-friendly environment, while fostering service industries, SMEs (small- and medium-sized enterprises) and self-employed businesses, which is expected to help boost domestic demand. With the country’s trade having hit US$1 trillion, small- to medium-sized exporters will be more encouraged to raise their competitiveness, develop new markets and maximize the benefits of the FTAs. Government efforts for sustainable growth such as pursuing green growth and supporting childcare will be intensified, with social capital such as sharing and social responsibility promoted. As working classes are easily affected by changing economic situations, the government will make an utmost effort to secure their livelihood through low inflation and job creation. Government’s efforts to achieve this end will include securing supplies and promoting competition for stable prices, increasing youth employment and creating an employmentfriendly environment, reducing the costs of education, housing, and medical services, and providing customized welfare services designed to encourage working and self-supporting, streamlining welfare delivery systems, and minimizing those left out of welfare programs.
Major tasks for 2012 1. Stimulating the economy Macroeconomic policies are to be flexibly implemented in the face of rapidly changing external and domestic conditions, with continuing focus on price stabilization. In the first half of 2012, 60 percent of the budget will be spent, and budgets for major projects will be allocated before the new fiscal year begins. Contingency plans for each situation will be reviewed through the emergency response system. The government will hold regular meetings to check the economic situation, and closely examine macroeconomic soundness. In the face of external uncertainties, household debts will be managed not to outgrow the economy, while corporate restructuring will be facilitated with tax incentives, Fast-Track financing extension, and the credit guarantee scheme amendment. The financial soundness of savings banks and other financial institutions will be kept under strict supervision, while the pay system for executive board members of the institutions will be made transparent. The government will tightly control fiscal aggregates to achieve a fiscal balance in 2013, with revised regulations related to fiscal management and public firms’ credit management. Government policies to boost domestic demand cover measures to boost investment in the country’s free economic zones, various benefits including tax incentives given to startup SMEs, companies relocating to Korea and energy saving investment, and government support
Economic Bulletin
43
for self-employed and small businesses when they develop joint brands with education and consulting services. The framework act on service industry development will be enacted, on the basis of which the service sector will be able to become more sophisticated. The government will help to fully utilize FTAs and seek to pass more FTAs so that Korea’s economic capabilities can continue to expand, as it will continue trying to complete the ongoing FTA negotiations with Turkey and Columbia, and provide information regarding the FTAs in effect and related consulting services. To diversify exports to emerging economies, the government will help with overseas marketing activities and reducing risks in those countries. There will be government support for building marketing infrastructure in emerging economies, in particular opening joint logistics centers, while exporters will face reduced risks with raised insurance payment ceilings, which will be applied to trades with African and Latin American countries. The 2012 policies include measures to help create an environment where green growth related industries will continuously be nurtured, and the measures include promoting the use of new renewable energies and exports of them. With the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to be introduced in 2012, energy companies will have to plan in detail their use of new renewable energies, along with meeting the bio diesel requirement. The government will financially support the exports of green growthrelated industries, and there will be financing of such exports through the Economic Development Cooperation Fund (EDCF). To foster new growth engines, over 50 percent of the R&D budget will be invested in basic science researches and core technology development. Future risks such as of the low birth rate, of the ageing population and depleting resources should be addressed in advance. The government will provide daycare for children aged five or under, while key measures for the ageing population, such as tax revision of pension and retirement allowance, will be adopted as planned. There will be an emphasis on “shared growth� between large enterprises and SMEs, while unfair trade among subsidiaries of large enterprises will be strictly treated. Sharing and social responsibility will also be stressed so that trust can grow with increasing consideration for others, resulting in a healthier economy and warm society. There will be closer public and private partnership in volunteering, while a variety of means of donation will be invented to help make donation placed firmly in the society. The financial sector will be obliged to more transparently manage its businesses, and increase social contribution. 2. Improving living quality To secure basic livelihood, the government will renew its efforts to stabilize basic necessities prices through steady supply and fair competition, while helping to expand youth employment and reduce living costs with stronger social safety nets.
44
December 2011
The government will stabilize the supply of agricultural products by improving the production forecasting system, expanding contract framing, and increasing inventory. To make the effect of lowered tariffs form the Korea-EU and Korea-US FTAs reflected early in prices, the government will examine the distribution system of the affected products and improve it. Public service fee increases will be controlled, while other service fees will be required to be posted, which is expected to expand choices as well as stabilize prices. Public firms will be obliged to cut cost as a way to minimize their service fee increases, and the timing of the increases will be carefully planned. There will be a cut in public administrative service fees and the new mobile phone service charge plan is expected to lower household communications charges. Consumers will be provided with accurate dining out costs as restaurants will be required to post total charges in and outside restaurants. The government will more strictly treat unfair practices including price-fixing, while making available online regularly updated consumer price information. To boost real estate transactions, the three districts in Southern Seoul, once designated as overheated speculation zones, will be delisted from the zones, and high progressive taxes on home transactions by those owning more than two houses will be lifted. The government put a high priority on improving youth employment, and will facilitate starting business by youths and encourage employment of high school graduates. The related government measures include business startup funds exclusive for young entrepreneurs with adjustable repayment plans and more internship and employment opportunities in public firms and government agencies for high school graduates. The government will try hard to root out discrimination against high school graduates in work places, such as less chances of promotion, and high school graduate employees will be financially supported when they go to college. There will be an increase in the job creation budget to give vulnerable groups more job opportunities and adopt an employment-friendly system. The government will extend community job programs, while expanding jobs in social security service areas. Measures to facilitate senior, baby boomer and woman employment involve retraining programs, government’s job creation projects for seniors and improved substitute programs for maternity leave. The industrial accident compensation insurance will be made to cover more workers, while irregular workers will be under better protection. The government will increase support for companies maintaining employment. To increase job market flexibility, public institutions will have to adopt performance-based salary and flexible work hours, while employing more part-timers and shift workers. To ease the burden of education, housing and medical service costs, there will be increased support of college tuition, middle school fees and after-school vouchers, more income tax deduction for housing expenses and expanded supply of rental homes, long-term mortgage
Economic Bulletin
45
loans with low interest rates and special financial support for first-time home buyers, and customized national health insurance payment to each income bracket, free compulsory vaccination for children, expanded long-term care for seniors with Alzheimer’s or paralysis and special medical expense support during pregnancy. The welfare system will be redirected toward encouraging working. To encourage low income groups to work, the coverage of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) will be expanded to the level next to the currently eligible level, with increased tax credits. Those with work capabilities will be encouraged to work instead of receiving basic livelihood security subsidies, with increased compensation after being delisted from the basic livelihood support recipients. More people will be eligible for the preferential savings account, which is designed to help low income families accumulate assets with favorable conditions and government’s financial support. Self-employed small businesses and low income households will be covered by the national social security insurance plan, which will reduce the number of those left out of social security insurance. To minimize the number of those in need of social security being left out of it, the government will revise the social security insurance delivery system in a way to effectively reflect recipients’ needs, while merging and rearranging similar social security insurances. The government will review existing welfare policies in consideration of demographic changes such as a sudden increase of homes with one or two persons.
46
December 2011
Economic News Briefing
Korea grows 0.8% in Q3 (Preliminary) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded quarter-on-quarter by 0.8 percent in the third quarter, according to preliminary data released by the Bank of Korea on December 6. The figures were revised up from the earlier estimate of 0.7 percent. On a year-on-year basis, the Korean economy grew by 3.5 percent in the third quarter, up from an earlier projection of 3.4 percent. On the production side, manufacturing grew by 1.4 percent and construction by 3.5 percent in the third quarter. Service sector output rose 0.3 percent, as increased production in financial & insurance services and communications services offset declines in wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, and real estate & renting. On the expenditure side, private and government consumption expanded by 0.4 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. Facility investment fell by 1.8 percent in the third quarter, led by declines in machinery investment. Construction investment grew by 1.8 percent, due to increases in both civil and building construction. Goods exports grew by 1.6 percent, led by automobiles and metal products, while crude oil and natural gas boosted goods imports by 1.5 percent. Nominal gross national income (GNI) rose 0.8 percent in the third quarter.
Economic Bulletin
47
<GDP by production and expenditure*>
(Percentage change from previous period) 20101
20111
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1.4 (7.5)
0.6 (4.4)
0.5 (4.7)
1.3 (4.2)
0.9 (3.4)
0.8 (3.5)
-3.1
-2.5
-2.5
0.2
-4.5
8.3
-6.1 (-2.7)
Manufacturing
4.2
4.0
2.3
0.1
3.1
1.4
1.4 (6.1)
Construction
1.4
-0.1
-1.2
-3.2
-6.1
2.6
3.5 (-3.3)
Services
1.5
0.2
0.3
1.1
1.2
0.0
0.3 (2.6)
Private consumption
0.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
0.4
0.9
0.4 (2.0)
Government consumption
3.6
0.3
-0.1
-0.4
1.7
0.8
1.4 (3.4)
Facility investment
2.8
7.9
5.6
-1.0
-1.1
3.9
-0.8 (1.0)
Construction investment
2.0
-4.2
-0.8
1.0
-6.7
1.6
1.8 (-4.6)
Goods exports
4
3.0
7.4
2.5
3.0
4.6
0.9
1.6 (10.5)
Goods imports
4
4.8
7.1
3.6
-0.7
3.1
3.8
1.5 (7.9)
Nominal Gross National Income
3.2
2.6
0.7
1.9
2.0
0.3
1.0 (5.3)
Real Goss National Income
1.2
1.3
0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.8 (0.8)
Q1 2.1 (8.5)
GDP Agriculture, forestry and fishery
3
2
*At 2005 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage changes from the same period in the previous year in original terms 3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included. 4. FOB basis
Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted that the Korean economy is likely to grow 3.8 percent next year, up from this yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s forecast of 3.7 percent. According to the OECDâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s latest economic outlook report published on November 28, the Korean economy is projected to pick up as world trade rebounds in 2012, with exports boosted by strong demand from China and by the relatively weak won.
4th High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness held in Busan The fourth High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness (HLF-4) was held from November 29 to December 1 in Busan. Ministerial delegations from 160 countries and representatives from multilateral development organizations, non-government organizations and civil associations attended the event to examine progress on the commitments made in the previous forums and to discuss future measures for international development cooperation. The result of the negotiations held by various stakeholders was the Busan Partnership for Effective Development Cooperation (Busan Declaration), which for the first time established an agreed framework for development cooperation that embraces traditional donors, partners of South-South cooperation, middle-income countries, civil society organizations (CSOs) and private funders.
48
December 2011
Korea’s trade surpasses US$1 trillion threshold Korea’s annual trade volume has exceeded US$1 trillion for the first time. Preliminary estimates as of December 5 showed that exports reached US$515.3 billion while imports stood at US$485.5 billion, making Korea the ninth country in the world to surpass the US$1 trillion threshold in terms of total annual trade volume. Despite uncertainties in the economy caused by the downgrading of the US credit rating and spread of the European debt crisis, strong outbound shipments of steel, automobiles and petroleum products, as well as the steady growth of raw material imports has allowed Korea to achieve its goal of reaching the US$1 trillion mark this year. The milestone was reached 50 years after the government announced the first Five-Year Economic Development Plan and implemented export-oriented economic policies to boost the economy. Since then, Korea has jumped from being the 104th biggest export nation to the seventh. During the same period, Korea’s world ranking in trade improved from 65th to ninth, with the trade volume increasing two thousand-fold. Meanwhile, Korea’s annual trade volume is expected to reach US$1.08 trillion by year-end, with exports and imports posting US$557 billion and US$523 billion each.
<Major trade milestones> 1967
1974
1988
2005
2011
Economic
Trade exceeds
Trade exceeds
Trade exceeds
Trade exceeds
Trade exceeds
Development
US$1 billion
US$10 billion
US$100 billion
US$500 billion
US$1 trillion
1.32
11.31
112.51
545.66
-
1962
Year st
1 Five-Year Event
Plan Trade volume (US$ billion)
0.48
Korea plans to expand preferential tariff for poorest countries Korea is planning to expand preferential tariff benefits for the poorest countries as part of its commitment to aid in the economic development of those countries, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced on November 25. The percentage of non tariff items from the poorest countries has been steadily increasing since 2007 and currently stands at 90 percent. The government plans to expand this to 95 percent starting next year, adding 253 products to the list of goods exempted from import duties.
Economic Bulletin
49
Revised consumer price index unveiled Statistics Korea announced on November 29 that Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s consumer price index (CPI) has been revised to reflect recent economic and social changes. Survey items and weights were readjusted, and advanced statistical tools were introduced. Through this revision, Statistics Korea aims to reduce the gap between indicators and real life inflation, as well as to improve the international comparability of the index. The base year of the CPI has been adjusted from 2005 to 2010. The number of survey items was reduced from 489 to 481, with certain items either being added or deleted from the list to reflect changing consumer preferences and the introduction of new products. In addition to the current method of excluding oil and agricultural products to determine core inflation, the OECD approach, which excludes food and energy, will also be adopted. According to the Bank of Korea (BOK), the OECD method is more in line with international standards and is a more effective gauge of core consumer prices than the previous method. As a result of the revision, the year-on-year average rate over the period of January to October 2011 decreased 0.4 percentage points from 4.4 percent (based on 2005) to 4.0 percent (based on 2010).
Consolidated fiscal balance as of September shows surplus of 16.8 trillion won (Preliminary) Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s consolidated fiscal balance as of September (preliminary) posted a surplus of 16.8 trillion won, up 9.8 trillion won from the same period of last year. Fiscal revenue grew by 19.2 trillion won, led by an increase in tax (up 15.3 trillion won) and non-tax (up 3.1 trillion won) revenues. Fiscal spending increased 9.5 trillion won year-on-year. Consolidated fiscal balance excluding social security funds showed a deficit of 8.3 trillion won, narrowing by 8.2 trillion won over the 12 months through September.
50
December 2011
(trillion won, %) 2010 Budget September (a) (b)
y-o-y change
2011 b/a (%)
Budget September (c) (d)
d/c (%)
d-b
A. Consolidated fiscal revenue
262.3
209.3
79.8
284.8
228.5
80.2
19.2
B. Consolidated fiscal spending
264.3
202.2
76.5
279.5
211.7
75.7
9.5
C. Consolidated fiscal balance (A-B)
-2.0
7.0
-
5.3
16.8
-
9.8
D. Social security funds*
28.1
23.5
-
30.3
25.1
-
-1.5
-30.1
-16.5
-
-25.0
-8.3
-
8.2
E. Consolidated fiscal balance excluding social security funds (C-D)
* Include national pension funds, private school teachersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; funds, accident insurance funds and employment insurance funds
Korea to closely monitor effects of North Korean leaderâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s death Following the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced on December 21 that it will closely analyze the effects of the event on the South Korean economy, and fully respond to them. The Ministry revealed that the Korean government will be prepared for any possible changes, and will fully cooperate with its allies and credit rating agencies through closer consultations.
Economic Bulletin
51
52
December 2011
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
53
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.3 6.2
-5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.6 3.2 -4.3
5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 2.8 -1.5 14.6
0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 2.0 1.2 3.9
Construction
Facilities
4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.9 -1.0 7.0
8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.8 3.4 -1.4
-1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -1.0 -9.8 25.0
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008
I II III IV
5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3
7.8 4.6 4.3 6.5
8.9 8.3 5.3 -9.4
4.3 3.0 2.4 -1.7
-0.6 0.6 2.1 -8.7
-2.5 -0.5 0.4 -7.7
2.8 2.0 5.3 -13.3
2009
I II III IV
-4.2 -2.1 1.0 6.3
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-13.6 -7.1 1.8 13.1
-2.2 0.7 1.5 4.8
-7.5 -3.0 -1.0 6.2
1.6 4.3 3.2 4.0
-21.9 -18.1 -9.4 12.2
2010P
I II III IV
8.5 7.5 4.4 4.7
0.9 -2.2 -7.3 -6.7
22.2 17.8 9.8 11.1
5.9 3.4 3.4 3.0
12.5 6.8 6.8 3.4
4.3 -2.3 -3.1 -2.9
29.1 30.5 26.6 15.9
2011P
I II III
4.2 3.4 3.5
-8.6 1.0 -2.7
9.8 7.2 6.1
2.5 2.8 2.3
-2.2 -1.1 -2.0
-11.9 -6.8 -4.6
11.7 7.5 1.0
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
54
December 2011
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
55
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2009 2010
Production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
119.7 139.1
-0.1 16.2
116.7 133.5
-1.4 14.4
115.5 135.6
-7.8 17.4
118.3 122.9
1.8 3.9
2009
I II III IV
103.5 118.7 125.3 131.2
-15.1 -5.4 4.9 16.8
102.6 116.6 120.7 126.9
-14.4 -5.2 2.3 12.9
115.9 110.4 113.0 115.5
-6.2 -17.0 -14.3 -7.8
112.9 118.0 118.9 123.4
-1.1 1.1 2.4 4.8
2010
I II III IV
129.8 141.0 139.0 146.6
25.4 18.8 10.9 11.7
124.0 135.1 132.7 142.0
20.9 15.9 9.9 11.9
124.6 127.7 134.6 135.6
7.5 17.5 19.1 17.4
119.9 122.9 121.6 127.3
6.2 4.2 2.3 3.2
2011
I II III
143.6 151.2 146.1
10.6 7.2 5.1
138.7 144.8 139.3
11.9 7.2 5.0
137.4 142.7 149.1
10.3 10.0 10.8
123.1 127.0 126.7
2.7 3.3 4.2
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
94.4 100.7 115.3 117.2 116.1 122.7 124.6 117.8 133.4 128.1 130.7 134.8
-25.3 -9.4 -10.1 -7.4 -8.2 -0.6 1.0 1.4 12.1 1.2 18.5 34.8
93.7 100.3 113.8 115.6 113.8 120.5 120.1 113.6 128.3 124.0 126.6 130.1
-23.1 -8.7 -10.7 -7.4 -7.9 0.0 -1.2 -1.0 9.1 -0.2 15.3 26.2
123.9 117.7 115.9 112.3 111.5 110.4 111.5 112.0 113.0 112.4 113.6 115.5
0.1 -5.2 -6.2 -9.8 -13.3 -17.0 -15.7 -15.1 -14.3 -16.4 -14.6 -7.8
112.1 109.9 116.7 117.1 117.6 119.2 117.9 117.0 121.8 119.3 119.3 131.6
-1.6 0.0 -1.4 0.9 -0.2 2.6 1.2 1.6 4.5 2.3 4.2 7.7
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
129.3 119.1 141.1 140.0 140.0 142.9 143.1 136.5 137.3 145.3 145.3 149.2
37.0 18.3 22.4 19.5 20.6 16.5 14.8 15.9 2.9 13.4 11.2 10.7
123.1 113.6 135.2 134.7 133.4 137.3 135.7 131.0 131.4 140.8 141.4 143.9
31.4 13.3 18.8 16.5 17.2 13.9 13.0 15.3 2.4 13.5 11.7 10.6
119.8 123.3 124.6 126.3 129.9 129.7 134.1 134.5 134.6 133.5 132.8 135.6
-3.3 4.8 7.5 12.5 16.5 17.5 20.3 20.1 19.1 18.8 16.9 17.4
118.5 116.7 124.4 121.5 123.3 124.0 122.4 120.9 121.6 123.2 123.8 134.9
5.7 6.2 6.6 3.8 4.8 4.0 3.8 3.3 -0.2 3.3 3.8 2.5
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
146.9 129.8 154.0 149.7 151.5 152.3 148.7 142.9 146.8 154.3
13.6 9.0 9.1 6.9 8.2 6.6 3.9 4.7 6.9 6.2
141.4 125.2 149.6 144.6 144.4 145.4 135.9 136.5 141.3 146.5
14.9 10.2 10.7 7.3 8.2 5.9 3.1 4.2 7.5 4.0
135.4 137.1 137.4 137.3 140.2 142.7 147.2 150.4 149.1 153.3
13.0 11.2 10.3 8.7 7.9 10.0 9.8 11.8 10.8 14.8
124.1 116.9 128.2 125.2 127.4 128.4 127.0 126.8 126.2 127.5
4.7 0.2 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.9 3.8 3.5
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
December 2011
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
119.3 127.9
3.5 7.2
93.8 102.1
-3.5 8.8
74.4 81.2
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2009 2010 2009
I II III IV
117.0 118.0 120.1 122.2
2.8 2.5 3.5 5.0
81.7 95.3 97.8 100.3
-17.7 -7.6 2.4 10.1
67.0 74.3 77.8 78.4
2010
I II III IV
124.3 126.5 129.5 131.3
6.2 7.2 7.8 7.4
97.4 105.6 99.6 105.6
19.2 10.8 1.8 5.3
80.4 82.3 81.2 80.8
2011
I II III
132.7 133.8 134.6
6.8 5.8 3.9
99.9 105.3 99.5
2.6 -0.3 -0.1
83.1 81.4 81.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.9 116.9 117.1 117.7 117.7 118.5 119.3 119.8 121.1 121.6 121.9 123.1
2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.3 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.5
73.7 79.8 91.6 94.1 93.3 98.4 98.8 91.0 103.6 99.1 100.5 101.2
-28.6 -10.8 -12.8 -10.1 -9.7 -2.8 -1.0 -1.3 9.6 -4.8 12.4 27.0
63.7 67.3 70.0 72.5 73.7 76.6 77.7 76.4 79.3 77.8 78.0 79.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
123.6 123.9 125.3 125.5 126.5 127.4 128.6 129.7 130.1 130.8 131.1 132.1
5.7 6.0 7.0 6.6 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.3 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.3
97.1 88.4 106.7 106.1 103.8 107.0 105.3 96.2 97.2 106.6 105.4 104.9
31.8 10.8 16.5 12.8 11.3 8.7 6.6 5.7 -6.2 7.6 4.9 3.6
79.3 80.5 81.5 81.7 82.1 83.1 82.7 79.7 81.2 79.7 80.5 82.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
132.2 132.5 133.4 133.8 133.7 133.9 134.2 134.4 135.1 136.0
7.0 6.9 6.5 6.6 5.7 5.1 4.4 3.6 3.8 4.0
102.5 89.5 107.8 104.6 104.7 106.6 102.8 96.9 99.0 104.3
5.6 1.2 1.0 -1.4 0.9 -0.4 -2.4 0.7 1.9 -2.2
84.8 82.2 82.4 80.4 81.3 82.5 82.1 80.4 81.3 79.5
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2009 2010
Consumer goods sales index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
113.6 121.1
2.7 6.6
136.8 157.2
8.2 14.9
106.3 113.5
1.3 6.8
111.3 113.7
1.2 2.2
2009
I II III IV
106.5 113.4 111.9 122.4
-4.5 1.5 2.8 10.9
114.7 142.0 135.5 155.1
-11.7 5.9 7.7 34.1
103.1 107.7 94.3 120.2
-0.5 0.5 0.3 4.5
107.7 109.2 114.3 113.9
-1.4 0.4 1.8 4.0
2010
I II III IV
116.8 118.9 120.3 128.6
9.7 4.9 7.5 5.1
148.7 149.9 158.5 171.6
29.6 5.6 17.0 10.6
105.7 114.4 100.5 133.6
2.5 6.2 6.6 11.1
111.1 112.8 117.7 113.1
3.2 3.3 3.0 -0.7
2011
I II III
122.7 125.7 125.6
5.1 5.7 4.4
167.9 176.2 175.0
12.9 17.5 10.4
112.2 120.8 104.5
6.1 5.6 4.0
112.0 112.4 120.1
0.8 -0.4 2.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 101.2 109.7 108.6 117.0 114.6 110.8 106.7 118.2 120.6 119.6 127.1
-2.9 -5.7 -4.9 -4.2 1.7 7.6 1.1 0.5 6.8 9.9 9.8 12.8
104.1 116.0 124.0 123.9 144.0 158.0 138.2 122.5 145.9 144.8 153.5 167.1
-18.9 -1.5 -13.6 -10.9 5.9 24.3 -1.8 0.8 26.6 16.9 41.0 46.1
103.6 97.1 108.5 109.3 113.3 100.4 95.4 86.5 101.1 116.1 121.8 122.6
-0.8 -0.7 0.0 0.7 1.1 -0.5 -2.3 0.3 3.1 4.0 1.2 8.4
114.8 99.2 109.2 106.8 113.1 107.6 110.8 112.9 119.3 116.6 109.2 116.0
5.5 -8.5 -1.2 -2.5 0.7 3.0 4.4 0.8 0.4 9.4 1.4 1.5
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
115.8 114.2 120.3 116.5 121.2 118.9 120.7 116.7 123.5 125.5 127.8 132.6
6.7 12.8 9.7 7.3 3.6 3.8 8.9 9.4 4.5 4.1 6.9 4.3
145.5 141.3 159.2 144.6 147.0 158.1 164.0 154.4 157.0 165.2 172.1 177.4
39.8 21.8 28.4 16.7 2.1 0.1 18.7 26.0 7.6 14.1 12.1 6.2
108.4 99.6 109.1 113.1 120.7 109.3 103.5 90.2 107.7 130.0 133.4 137.3
4.6 2.6 0.6 3.5 6.5 8.9 8.5 4.3 6.5 12.0 9.5 12.0
108.7 112.1 112.6 110.4 116.0 112.1 115.1 116.4 121.6 111.1 111.9 116.2
-5.3 13.0 3.1 3.4 2.6 4.2 3.9 3.1 1.9 -4.7 2.5 0.2
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
128.1 113.3 126.6 122.4 128.8 125.8 127.1 122.8 126.9 128.3
10.6 -0.8 5.2 5.1 6.3 5.8 5.3 5.2 2.8 2.2
165.9 154.2 183.5 167.4 176.4 184.9 184.6 173.3 167.2 170.0
14.0 9.1 15.3 15.8 20.0 17.0 12.6 12.2 6.5 2.9
120.4 101.6 114.6 121.5 127.0 114.0 107.5 93.6 112.4 134.6
11.1 2.0 5.0 7.4 5.2 4.3 3.9 3.8 4.4 3.5
118.9 104.3 112.7 108.7 116.3 112.2 117.6 119.4 122.9 114.5
9.4 -7.0 0.1 -1.5 0.3 0.1 2.2 2.6 1.1 3.1
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
December 2011
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2009 2010
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
116.4 122.0
1.4 4.8
135.1 139.6
6.5 3.3
108.9 115.0
-0.9 5.6
-
2009
I II III IV
107.7 114.8 119.9 123.3
-8.3 -0.8 5.4 10.2
113.4 139.9 139.4 147.8
-14.9 2.5 13.3 29.2
105.3 104.7 112.0 113.4
-5.2 -2.5 1.7 2.2
-
2010
I II III IV
118.5 119.9 122.0 127.6
10.0 4.4 1.8 3.5
136.7 139.5 139.2 142.9
20.5 -0.3 -0.1 -3.3
111.2 112.1 115.1 121.6
5.6 7.1 2.8 7.2
-
2011
I II III
120.8 117.8 120.8
1.9 -1.8 -1.0
134.9 134.6 136.5
-1.3 -3.5 -1.9
115.2 111.0 114.5
3.6 -1.0 -0.5
-
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.6 103.8 111.7 112.6 113.5 118.4 119.0 110.9 129.7 121.7 118.5 129.6
-14.2 -2.5 -7.4 -6.0 -1.9 6.0 1.0 -0.7 15.8 1.7 10.7 18.8
99.0 115.5 125.7 120.6 140.7 158.4 146.3 125.8 146.1 139.5 146.7 157.1
-25.3 -6.2 -12.8 -16.4 2.8 23.3 8.9 6.1 25.8 9.2 32.2 50.5
111.0 99.0 106.0 109.3 102.6 102.3 108.0 104.9 123.1 114.5 107.2 118.6
-9.4 -0.8 -4.6 -0.7 -4.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.7 11.6 -1.8 1.7 6.8
84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114 114 117 113 113
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
123.7 110.3 121.6 120.5 117.5 121.8 121.9 120.5 123.6 129.3 128.3 125.3
15.0 6.3 8.9 7.0 3.5 2.9 2.4 8.7 -4.7 6.2 8.3 -3.3
136.0 129.7 144.5 135.4 135.3 147.7 145.6 133.9 138.0 145.7 144.7 138.4
37.4 12.3 15.0 12.3 -3.8 -6.8 -0.5 6.4 -5.5 4.4 -1.4 -11.9
118.8 102.6 112.3 114.6 110.4 111.4 112.4 115.2 117.8 122.8 121.8 120.1
7.0 3.6 5.9 4.8 7.6 8.9 4.1 9.8 -4.3 7.2 13.6 1.3
113 111 110 110 111 112 112 110 109 108 110 109
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P 11
129.6 105.9 127.0 118.6 115.7 119.1 120.0 121.2 121.1 124.3 -
4.8 -4.0 4.4 -1.6 -1.5 -2.2 -1.6 0.6 -2.0 -3.9 -
133.0 125.6 146.1 133.1 131.4 139.4 141.9 132.3 135.4 132.2 -
-2.2 -3.2 1.1 -1.7 -2.9 -5.6 -2.5 -1.2 -1.9 -9.1 -
128.2 98.0 119.4 112.7 109.4 110.9 111.2 116.8 115.3 121.0-
7.9 -4.5 6.3 -1.7 -0.9 -0.4 -1.1 1.4 -2.1 -1.5 -
108 105 98 100 104 102 102 99 99 100 103
Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
59
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2010
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
23,360
2,330
21,030
12,279
133.2
135.0
Manufacturing
2010
I ll III IV
5,544 6,247 5,662 5,908
525 402 380 1,023
5,019 5,845 5,282 4,885
2,910 3,564 3,026 2,779
120.5 137.5 139.1 135.6
116.7 144.2 136.2 142.8
2011
I ll III
6,627 6,760 5,734
471 732 404
6,156 6,029 5,330
3,744 3,684 3,110
128.5 144.1 134.2
133.1 148.4 128.8
2010 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,092 1,710 1,860 1,719 1,770 2,418
105 106 169 101 102 820
1,987 1,604 1,691 1,618 1,668 1,599
1,068 897 1,061 964 981 834
139.1 140.8 137.5 130.8 134.7 141.2
138.6 132.8 137.1 134.8 136.7 156.9
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
2,115 2,070 2,442 1,965 2,171 2,624 2,000 1,813 1,921 1,964
116 122 233 102 142 487 152 115 137 302
2,000 1,948 2,209 1,869 2,029 2,137 1,848 1,698 1,784 1,662
1,156 1,148 1,440 1,158 1,190 1,336 1,027 1,007 1,077 967
125.7 113.9 145.8 132.5 146.1 154.1 134.9 136.0 131.6 115.3
127.6 123.6 148.1 138.3 150.9 156.0 135.9 124.5 126.0 124.0
11.2
-37.9
21.8
32.3
25.1
22.5
Y-o-Y change (%) 2010 2010
I ll III IV
10.3 24.7 -0.2 11.3
-43.7 -42.2 -71.7 31.4
22.6 35.5 22.0 7.8
45.6 58.5 27.4 4.5
30.0 29.5 29.3 13.6
18.1 25.7 27.4 18.4
2011
I ll III
19.5 8.2 1.3
-10.3 82.0 6.1
22.7 3.1 0.9
28.7 3.4 2.8
6.6 4.8 -3.5
14.1 2.9 -5.4
2010 7 8 9 10 11 12
-16.5 26.6 2.3 9.9 -9.2 34.9
-90.2 48.9 -15.5 20.8 -76.5 213.9
38.7 25.3 4.5 9.3 10.0 4.3
41.8 37.1 9.6 13.2 4.2 -3.7
31.5 41.2 17.1 21.6 13.1 7.4
28.1 36.9 18.8 25 19.5 12.4
2011
19.7 26.1 14.4 6.6 -0.8 18.5 -4.4 6.0 3.3 14.2
-31.5 14.0 -6.3 -19.6 23.4 205.2 44.9 8.0 -19.1 198.7
25.1 27.0 17.1 8.6 -2.2 4.0 -7.0 5.8 5.5 2.7
14.6 30.4 41.0 9.8 -10.5 13.2 -3.9 12.2 1.5 0.4
22.2 1.0 0.5 -0.3 10.3 4.7 -3.0 -3.4 -4.3 -11.9
17.8 20.4 6.5 -0.8 7.1 2.5 -1.9 -6.3 -8.2 -8.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
60
December 2011
7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)
Period
Type of order
Private
Public
Private
35,163
52,777
88,675
29,013
54,628
Public
92,238
2010
Type of order
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Value of construction completion (total)
2010
I ll llI lV
20,329 24,082 22,005 25,823
7,467 9,129 7,784 10,784
11,977 13,931 13,160 13,708
18,110 25,295 19,095 26,175
7,955 6,890 6,814 7,355
9,087 16,737 11,406 17,399
2011
I ll llI
19,067 23,898 21,411
7,288 9,304 7,836
10,857 13,195 12,464
15,796 24,473 19,259
4,053 6,067 6,396
10,743 16,821 12,176
2010
7 8 9 10 11 12
7,453 7,150 7,401 7,356 8,041 10,426
2,690 2,460 2,634 2,856 3,278 4,650
4,419 4,370 4,371 4,135 4,401 5,173
7,475 4,145 7,475 4,415 7,551 14,209
3,903 1,327 1,584 1,185 2,023 4,146
3,351 2,698 5,355 3,111 5,217 9,071
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
6,157 5,277 7,634 7,053 7,435 9,410 6,793 6,908 7,791 8,036
2,415 2,047 2,827 2,721 2,189 3,765 2,441 2,524 2,886 2,955
3,476 2,991 4,391 3,981 4,226 4,989 4,044 4,051 4,421 4,707
4,658 4,959 7,179 6,459 6,753 11,260 4,892 7,269 7,098 6,902
1,295 1,396 1,362 1,413 1,861 2,793 1,735 1,505 3,156 2,296
2,697 2,445 5,601 4,452 4,428 7,941 3,042 5,503 3,631 4,446
-18.7
-43.7
2.8
2010
2.7
8.5
Y-o-Y change (%) 0.5
2010
I ll llI lV
6.3 2.0 -0.4 3.3
13.8 5.5 -1.1 15.9
3.8 2.6 1.0 -4.8
-1.6 -6.7 -3.6 -40.2
-14.9 -61.9 -22.0 -52.1
8.0 105.4 13.2 34.4
2011
I ll llI
-6.2 -0.8 -2.7
-2.4 1.9 0.7
-9.4 -5.3 -5.3
-12.8 -3.3 0.9
-49.1 -11.9 -6.1
18.2 0.5 6.8
2010
7 8 9 10 11 12
6.7 6.5 -11.8 0.9 -0.5 8.2
14.0 1.4 -14.6 10.5 17.1 18.6
3.9 11.2 -9.8 -4.8 -9.4 -0.5
25.6 -12.5 -18.1 -58.8 -48.7 -22.5
23.5 -26.2 -58.0 -75.0 -61.4 -22.8
38.3 -5.0 11.4 -45.7 -41.2 -23.9
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
-5.2 -14.1 -0.7 -4.1 -4.0 4.7 -8.8 -3.4 5.3 9.2
7.0 -11.1 -2.8 3.5 -0.8 2.9 -9.3 2.6 9.6 3.4
-12.5 -17.3 0.0 -10.7 -6.9 1.1 -8.5 -7.3 1.1 13.8
-33.9 -16.7 13.7 -2.7 -22.5 13.3 -34.6 75.4 -5.0 56.3
-46.3 -35.7 -59.6 -22.7 11.3 -17.6 -55.5 13.4 99.3 93.7
-36.9 9.5 117.0 -0.1 -33.4 41.1 -9.3 103.9 -32.2 42.9
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
61
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
109.1 110.0 110.4 111.0 111.2 112.0 112.8 113.6 114.2 115.2 116.1 116.7
5.4 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.4
110.9 111.3 111.9 112.4 113.0 113.8 114.6 115.3 115.6 116.4 117.2 118.3
101.4 101.4 101.4 101.5 101.6 101.9 102.2 102.4 102.2 102.5 102.7 103.2
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.3 115.6 115.1 114.9 114.8 114.2 113.5 113.3 113.1 112.5 111.3 110.5
6.5 5.1 4.0 3.2 2.5 1.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.7 -3.1 -3.9
119.3 119.6 119.9 119.9 120.0 119.8 119.8 120.0 120.3 120.3 118.8 116.1
103.7 103.5 103.4 102.9 102.6 102.0 101.5 101.3 101.1 100.6 99.0 96.4
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 112.2 113.4 115.3 117.3 119.9 121.5 122.5 123.4 124.6 126.4 127.2
-3.6 -2.4 -1.3 0.5 2.6 5.4 7.2 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.7 12.0
114.1 114.1 115.3 117.1 118.1 120.4 121.7 122.7 123.5 124.4 125.2 125.8
94.3 93.9 94.5 95.5 96.0 97.4 98.0 98.4 98.7 98.9 99.2 99.2
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 110.5 107.5 103.8 104.8
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0 116.5 109.0 105.9
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
127.5 127.0 127.1 126.9 127.3 127.7 128.4 128.8 128.8 128.4 128.7 129.3
11.6 10.4 9.6 8.6 7.7 6.8 6.2 5.4 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.9
126.6 127.8 128.8 129.6 130.5 131.4 132.4 132.6 132.2 131.8 132.1 133.1
99.5 100.0 100.3 100.5 100.8 101.0 101.4 101.1 100.4 99.6 99.5 99.8
99.2 98.7 113.1 108.9 111.9 109.4 105.0 98.6 104.1 104.3 103.5 102.1
103.1 102.3 116.2 111.2 113.4 108.9 107.3 100.7 111.1 113.1 107.1 104.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
130.1 129.8 129.4 129.0 129.5 130.2 130.8 130.9 130.6 130.1 -
3.0 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.0 -
135.1 135.3 135.8 135.5 136.6 137.7 138.6 139.2 138.7 138.8 -
100.8 100.6 100.5 99.9 100.3 100.6 100.9 100.9 100.1 99.8 -
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 -
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries
62
December 2011
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2009 2010P
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
32,790.5 28,213.6
37,866.0 41,904.0
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
358,189.7 464,286.9
320,323.7 422,383.1
-6,640.5 -11,229.4
2,276.7 768.4
-711.7 -3.229.4
2009
I II III IV
4,543.3 11,557.4 8,613.2 8,076.6
2,819.2 13,553.3 10,914.6 10,578.9
73,334.9 87,038.0 95,485.2 102,331.6
70,515.7 73,484.7 84,570.6 91,752.7
-26.0 -1,291.4 -2,663.3 -2,659.8
393.9 -151.1 948.6 1,085.3
1,356.2 -553.4 -586.7 -927.8
2010P
I II III IV
263.3 8,857.9 9,931.1 9,161.3
4,785.4 12,240.4 12,542.3 12,335.9
101,354.5 117,585.0 118,257.3 127,090.1
96,569.1 105,344.7 105,715.1 114,754.2
-4,201.1 -1,873.1 -2,954.6 -2,200.6
546.5 -1,006.5 1,296.1 -67.6
-867.4 -502.9 -952.7 -906.4
2011P
I II III
2,610.3 5,492.2 6,896.0
5,842.7 7,661.0 7,197.7
127,691.2 142,722.8 141,393.5
121,848.5 135,061.8 134,195.8
-2,538.0 -796.0 -1,198.2
387.9 -824.8 1,314.9
-1,082.3 -548.0 -418.5
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,800.2 2,579.8 3,763.7 3,511.2 3,153.8 4,892.4 4,054.8 1,300.2 3,258.2 3,202.9 4,165.0 708.7
-2,441.3 1,766.2 3,494.3 4,255.5 3,822.6 5,475.2 5,021.2 1,920.5 3,972.9 3,546.1 4,851.1 2,181.7
21,910.3 24,179.6 27,245.0 28,832.5 27,228.8 30,976.7 32,688.5 29,001.4 33,795.3 33,474.6 34,055.5 34,801.5
24,351.6 22,413.4 23,750.7 24,577.0 23,406.2 25,501.5 27,667.3 27,080.9 29,822.4 29,928.5 29,204.4 32,619.8
-98.9 -64.1 137.0 -15.8 -555.6 -720.0 -1,241.2 -761.3 -660.8 -505.9 -643.6 -1,510.3
502.7 366.2 -475.0 -835.1 205.0 479.0 366.3 367.9 214.4 336.2 272.5 476.6
237.3 511.5 607.4 106.6 -318.2 -341.8 -91.5 -226.9 -268.3 -173.5 -315.0 -439.3
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-571.8 -363.1 1,198.2 529.0 3,998.9 4,330.0 4,457.9 1,975.7 3,497.5 5,112.5 1,934.4 2,114.4
996.7 586.3 3,202.4 3,740.1 3,658.4 4,841.9 5,268.9 2,826.0 4,447.4 5,484.9 3,170.8 3,680.2
31,806.6 31,119.7 38,428.2 39,186.7 38,250.1 40,148.2 41,130.1 37,903.4 39,223.8 42,012.2 41,939.6 43,138.3
30,809.9 30,533.4 35,225.8 35,446.7 34,591.7 35,306.3 35,861.3 35,077.4 34,776.4 36,527.3 38,768.8 39,458.1
-1,651.8 -1,270.7 -1,278.6 -1,268.9 147.4 -751.6 -859.3 -902.5 -1,192.8 -749.9 -304.5 -1,146.2
414.6 497.4 -365.6 -1,452.5 219.8 226.2 352.3 518.7 425.1 657.1 -690.2 -34.5
-331.3 -176.1 -360.0 -489.7 -26.7 13.5 -304.0 -466.5 -182.2 -279.6 -241.7 -385.1
2011P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
154.7 1,126.1 1,329.5 1,277.6 2,183.9 2,030.7 3,773.6 292.6 2,829.8 4,231.3
1,557.9 1,530.8 2,754.0 3,327.6 1,633.8 2,699.6 4,728.0 371.5 2,098.2 3,647.3
42,662.8 37,228.3 47,800.4 47,879.4 47,149.8 47,693.6 48,555.9 45,634.9 47,202.7 46,572.7
41,104.9 35,697.2 45,046.4 44,551.8 45,516.0 44,994.0 43,827.9 45,263.4 45,104.5 42,925.4
-1,640.9 -569.1 -328.0 -178.8 15.5 -632.7 -690.9 -577.9 70.6 2.8
703.7 542.6 -858.4 -1,581.9 517.3 239.8 72.3 699.6 543.0 643.5
-466.0 -378.2 -238.1 -289.3 17.3 -276.0 -335.8 -200.6 118.0 -62.3
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
63
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
289.6 -174.2
-68,666.4 -27,094.5
1,860.7 -2,882.1
6,917.1 -7,914.9 -251.1 3,287.8
382.3 25.8 -103.9 -14.6
-9,017.4 -19,541.8 -23,492.6 -16,614.6
-175.0 1,379.4 -1,636.0 2,292.3
746.6 -983.9 -388.6 618.5
16.7 -7,076.3 -4,725.3 -5,443.2
-175.6 27.1 31.1 -56.8
-8,595.1 -5,600.2 -10,411.5 -2,487.7
-108.0 241.1 -2,251.5 -763.7
-1,379.1 2,035.4 8,108.4
730.3 -542.9 -1,490.7
6,251.6 -1,432.5 -18,692.6
-181.4 -111.9 235.5
-3,479.2 -2,618.0 6,326.1
143.8 1,315.8 1,424.9
-643.0 -1,095.1 -1,039.8 -695.3 -855.9 -480.8 -1,644.2 -865.9 -795.6 -749.1 -2,855.1 -3,228.2
4,715.2 122.8 -2,053.4 6,879.7 4,157.3 4,890.2 8,470.1 4,004.4 8,752.4 5,829.4 2,992.6 967.0
473.2 -771.2 -2,358.9 274.1 1,279.7 -954.8 -155.1 -870.3 -25.5 -509.1 614.2 -89.3
2,644.7 -1,255.7 5,528.1 -4,669.7 1,818.3 -5,063.5 -3,538.9 2,696.1 591.7 -1,429.4 712.9 4,004.3
61.9 195.6 124.8 60.3 -16.5 -18.0 3.4 -29.4 -77.9 6.9 -56.4 34.9
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6 -7,095.2 -10,823.8 -7,965.8 -5,637.4 -3,011.4
-963.2 1,483.8 -695.6 83.9 711.9 583.6 -1,616.6 860.1 -879.5 1,614.1 64.2 614.0
-686.4 1,398.3 -867.2 641.8 -5,611.5 -4,129.3 -3,528.4 -1,421.7 -2,729.5 -5,869.7 -2,191.7 -336.2
-1,070.2 -613.7 -623.6 -1,163.6 -571.7 -828.8 -1,773.0 -1,184.2 -3,260.2 -5,393.9 -1,286.8 -1,610.0
118.0 2,484.0 7,557.6 5,792.1 747.2 559.1 8,592.4 1,061.0 4,378.7 7,447.3 2,227.2 -2,412.2
241.8 549.3 -44.5 80.6 -854.8 -209.7 -297.3 61.3 -152.6 0.4 106.9 511.2
7,076.7 -1,692.8 -5,367.2 5,343.4 -12,116.8 -302.9 -4,029.4 93.3 -789.2 -5,216.8 -1,494.4 1,268.0
-70.0 -43.2 -62.4 -120.5 101.3 46.3 -0.2 57.9 -26.6 -48.1 -25.3 16.6
-6,982.7 714.7 -2,327.1 -9,290.2 7083.3 -3393.3 -6020.9 -1,511.0 -2,879.6 -2,658.6 -1,719.3 1,890.2
1,258.2 -1,035.2 -331.0 -1,170.8 1,612.6 -200.7 -929.5 -554.0 -768.2 757.2 257.3 -1,778.2
-1,282.0 -1,996.2 524.1 394.7 -3,956.7 -3,246.0 -2,469.2 -1,690.6 -4,161.1 -4,365.0
-1,725.4 -1,635.1 -1,335.8 -7.38.8 -1,254.7 -2,144.6 327.1 -1,036.4 -2,098.3 -1,132.2
904.6 -3,004.0 720.3 4,575.0 -1,140.1 -1,399.5 9,258.3 -2,923.0 1,773.1 3,919.1
569.3 -363.3 524.3 -206.2 165.1 -501.8 526.6 -1,868.6 -148.7 108.5
1,773.3 5,126.9 -648.6 -145.9 -821.7 -464.9 -6,581.0 4,638.4 -16,750.0 2,811.6
-120.7 -32.7 -28.0 -33.6 -49.9 -28.4 13.8 41.5 180.2 109.7
-2,683.1 -2,088.0 1,291.9 -3,055.8 -855.4 1,293.2 -6,014.0 -542.5 12,882.6 -10,181.7
1,127.3 870.1 -1,853.6 -1,672.3 1,772.8 1,215.3 -1,304.4 1,398.0 1,331.3 133.7
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
2009 2010P
-34,651.2 -25,331.5
-14,948.0 -19,379.7
49,727.7 38,552.4
-3,093.0 -7.4
2,038.9 -17,228.1
I II III IV
-4,368.3 -12,936.8 -6,977.2 -10,368.9
-2,777.9 -2,032.0 -3,305.7 -6,832.4
2,784.6 15,927.2 21,226.9 9,789.0
-2,656.9 599.0 -1,050.9 15.8
2010P I II III IV
-155.3 -9,099.0 -7,679.6 -8,397.6
-2,307.5 -2,564.1 -6,217.4 -8,290.7
10,159.6 7,098.4 14,032.1 7,262.3
2011P I II III
-2,754.1 -6,808.0 -8,320.9
-4,696.3 -4,138.1 -2,807.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,763.4 -4,063.6 -3,068.1 -3,595.1 -3,865.7 -5,476.0 -2,438.2 -2,160.3 -2,378.7 -4,817.0 -4,229.2 -1,322.7
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2011P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2009
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
64
December 2011
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 Consumer prices (2010=100)
Producer prices (2005=100)
Export & import prices (2005=100)
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2010
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
115.1
117.0
106.4
145.0
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
98.8 99.0 99.2 99.6 99.7 99.6 99.8 100.3 101.1 101.1 100.6 101.0
98.3 98.6 98.9 99.6 99.5 99.2 99.5 100.3 102.0 102.0 100.8 101.5
99.2 99.4 99.5 99.7 99.9 99.9 100.2 100.3 100.4 100.4 100.6 100.7
99.3 99.5 99.4 99.6 99.8 99.9 100.1 100.3 100.4 100.4 100.4 100.7
112.7 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.2 114.8 114.9 115.2 116.3 116.4 116.7 117.8
113.9 114.5 115.3 116.4 117.1 116.6 116.7 117.1 118.6 118.6 118.9 120.5
103.5 104.7 104.0 103.8 106.7 109.9 109.4 107.4 106.9 105.0 106.3 109.6
136.9 137.6 139.2 140.9 144.7 147.6 147.0 147.4 147.4 146.1 149.2 156.1
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
102.2 102.9 103.3 103.4 103.6 103.8 104.3 105.0 104.9 104.7 104.8
103.4 104.4 104.9 104.6 104.7 105.0 105.9 107.1 107.1 106.6 106.8
101.2 101.7 102.1 102.4 102.6 102.8 103.1 103.3 103.1 103.2 103.3
101.4 102.1 102.4 102.6 103.0 103.4 103.7 103.8 103.7 103.6 103.9
119.7 120.5 122.0 122.4 122.3 121.9 122.4 122.8 122.9 122.9 122.6
122.7 123.9 125.8 126.2 126.0 125.5 126.0 126.7 126.9 126.9 126.5
108.6 110.6 113.5 111.8 110.2 109.4 108.0 109.4 113.1 114.7 112.0
156.1 160.9 166.5 167.6 163.9 163.2 161.4 162.1 168.1 169.5 166.8
Y-o-Y change (%) 2010
3.0
4.6
1.9
1.8
3.8
4.6
-2.6
5.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.4 3.7 3.0 3.0
5.8 4.5 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.1 5.8 6.4 4.9 4.9
2.1 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9
2.3 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.7
2.8 2.4 2.6 3.2 4.6 4.6 3.4 3.1 4.0 5.0 4.9 5.3
3.2 2.7 2.9 3.8 5.5 5.5 4.1 3.7 5.0 6.1 5.7 6.5
-6.9 -10.2 -12.2 -6.7 0.4 1.5 0.3 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 1.9 4.3
-0.9 -4.1 -4.3 5.1 11.3 8.0 7.5 5.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 12.7
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
3.4 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.7 3.8 3.6 4.2
5.2 5.9 6.1 5.0 5.2 5.8 6.4 6.8 5.0 4.5 6.0
2.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7
2.1 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.5
6.2 6.6 7.3 6.8 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.6 5.7 5.6 5.1
7.7 8.2 9.1 8.4 7.6 7.6 8.0 8.2 7.0 7.0 6.4
4.9 5.6 9.1 7.7 3.3 -0.4 -1.3 1.8 5.8 9.2 5.4
14.1 16.9 19.6 19.0 13.2 10.5 9.8 10.0 14.0 16.0 11.8
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2010
24,748
23,829
4,028
18,214
3.7
16,971
10,086
5,068
1,817
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,082 24,035 24,382 24,858 25,099 25,158 25,232 24,863 24,911 25,004 24,847 24,538
22,865 22,867 23,377 23,924 24,306 24,280 24,301 24,005 24,054 24,172 24,109 23,684
3,924 3,886 3,924 3,991 4,036 4,017 4,040 4,058 4,062 4,098 4,139 4,156
17,796 17,762 18,047 18,285 18,499 18,422 18,489 18,175 18,216 18,264 18,340 18,272
5.0 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.5
16,297 16,282 16,617 16,994 17,255 17,193 17,228 17,048 17,103 17,178 17,300 17,154
9,712 9,786 9,926 10,011 10,078 10,089 10,107 10,151 10,217 10,280 10,334 10,347
4,860 4,838 4,976 5,147 5,223 5,165 5,215 5,122 5,106 5,089 5,069 4,999
1,725 1,657 1,714 1,836 1,953 1,938 1,905 1,775 1,780 1,809 1,898 1,808
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
24,114 24,431 24,918 25,240 25,480 25,592 25,473 25,257 25,076 25,409
23,196 23,336 23,846 24,303 24,661 24,752 24,636 24,495 24,318 24,673
4,148 4,149 4,122 4,108 4,137 4,135 4,079 4,031 4,014 4,044
18,007 18,019 18,244 18,536 18,731 18,812 18,844 18,739 18,595 18,856
3.8 4.5 4.3 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9
16,832 16,856 17,065 17,357 17,626 17,720 17,667 17,510 17,378 17,608
10,305 10,390 10,543 10,618 10,708 10,716 10,718 10,710 10,764 10,796
4,848 4,781 4,782 4,928 5,064 5,132 5,137 5,031 5,047 5,094
1,680 1,684 1,740 1,812 1,854 1,872 1,811 1,769 1,567 1,718
Y-o-Y change (%) 2010
1.5
1.4
5.0
1.2
-
3.1
7.4
-0.7
-7.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 2.0
0.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.5 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 2.0
0.8 1.2 2.9 3.8 4.9 4.7 6.2 7.9 6.6 6.2 7.4 7.3
0.8 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.7 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.9
-
1.5 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.7 2.7 3.9 3.5 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.6
6.7 6.4 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.6 7.4
-2.4 -0.5 0.7 1.9 2.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.9 -1.6 -3.6 -1.5
-12.4 -12.6 -12.6 -11.5 -6.6 -8.4 -2.4 -6.1 -7.8 -4.4 -1.7 -2.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.1 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.0 1.7 0.7 1.6
1.4 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 1.1 2.1
5.7 6.7 5.1 2.9 2.5 2.9 1.0 -0.7 -1.2 -1.3
1.2 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.9 3.1 2.1 3.2
-
3.3 3.5 2.7 2.1 2.2 3.1 2.5 2.7 1.6 2.5
6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.0
-0.3 -1.2 -3.9 -4.3 -3.0 -0.6 -1.5 -1.8 -1.2 0.1
-2.6 1.6 1.5 -1.3 -5.1 -3.4 -4.9 -0.3 -11.9 -5.0
Source: Statistics Korea
66
December 2011
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69 1,555.60 1,682.77
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
5.4 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,602.43 1,594.58 1,692.85 1,741.56 1,641.25 1,698.29 1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2010
67,585.1
399,412.3
1,639,675.1
2,096,534.8
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
65,054.7 66,563.8 65,643.6 64,274.7 67,835.1 66,250.8 66,958.2 67,318.7 70,266.5 69,905.0 69,476.8 71,472.9
381,218.2 387,858.6 386,015.4 388,174.7 394,880.2 400,132.8 403,785.1 400,882.5 403,413.5 405,000.1 414,912.8 425,673.9
1,574,215.8 1,595,403.8 1,607,896.1 1,621,176.9 1,630,904.7 1,647,981.2 1,653,057.5 1,653,907.2 1,659,400.1 1,669,376.6 1,679,909.9 1,682,871.9
2,019,563.5 2,041,164.1 2,056,233.7 2,069,616.1 2,084,007.4 2,104,724.0 2,111,672.2 2,113.052.7 2,123.558.2 2,134,385.4 2,145,901.5 2,154,538.9
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
73,540.8 75,432.1 73,012.7 73,206.1 73,828.5 74,705.5 74,069.7 75,642.3 77,942.2 76,944.6
429,368.1 432,482.8 430,936.6 425,420.5 423,994.7 421,885.3 418,973.1 422,649.3 425,196.4 421,480.1
1,676,448.8 1,674,390.5 1,677,475.9 1,684,792.3 1,690,543.0 1,697,204.2 1,705,451.5 1,719,437.8 1,729,531.1 1,742,645.4
2,152,814.0 2,148,254.1 2,152,736.5 2,163,485.7 2,175,557.3 2,189,729.2 2,208,624.3 2,230,191.9 2,243,675.6 2,263,627.7
Y-o-Y change (%) 2010
9.5
11.8
8.7
8.2
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 5.6 0.0 4.7 12.9 11.3 12.7 11.1 17.8 9.8 13.6 14.1
15.0 15.9 12.6 10.8 10.9 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.2 9.0 11.8 12.9
9.3 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.7 9.3 8.5 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.2
8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.9 9.3 8.8 8.0 7.7 7.2 7.3 6.9
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
13.0 13.3 11.2 13.9 8.8 12.8 10.6 12.4 10.9 10.1
12.6 11.5 11.6 9.6 7.4 5.4 3.8 5.4 5.1 4.1
6.5 5.0 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.2 4.0 4.2 4.4
6.6 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.6 5.5 5.7 6.1
Source: The Bank of Korea
68
December 2011
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2010
1,138.9
1,156.3
1,397.1
1,320.6
1,513.6
1,532.9
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,156.5 1,158.4 1,130.8 1,115.5 1,200.2 1,210.3 1,187.2 1,189.1 1,142.0 1,126.6 1,157.3 1,138.9
1,138.8 1,157.1 1,137.6 1,117.1 1,163.1 1,212.3 1,207.3 1,179.9 1,167.0 1,123.4 1,126.2 1,147.6
1,287.0 1,299.3 1,217.7 1,186.8 1,318.5 1,364.6 1,370.0 1,406.0 1,363.3 1,390.7 1,373.4 1,397.1
1,248.3 1,281.7 1,255.8 1,195.3 1,265.2 1,333.6 1,377.7 1,380.2 1,384.2 1,371.1 1,366.6 1,376.7
1,614.6 1,569.2 1,518.2 1,479.3 1,474.2 1,475.4 1,552.4 1,505.9 1,556.0 1,569.3 1,518.3 1,513.6
1,627.5 1,584.5 1,544.9 1,501.7 1,460.7 1,480.9 1,540.3 1,523.3 1,518.7 1,559.6 1,541.3 1,515.4
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1,114.3 1,127.9 1,107.2 1,072.3 1,080.6 1,078.1 1,052.6 1,071.7 1,179.5 1,104.5 1,150.3
1,120.1 1,118.1 1,122.5 1,086.8 1,083.5 1,081.3 1,059.5 1,073.2 1,118.6 1,155.5 1,132.3
1,356.6 1,380.7 1,331.9 1,313.8 1,335.6 1,335.7 1,353.2 1,396.8 1,536.6 1,458.0 1,475.7
1,356.3 1,351.0 1,376.2 1,304.8 1,333.6 1,342.8 1,333.4 1,391.4 1,456.5 1,508.2 1,460.0
1,514.0 1,549.5 1,563.5 1,591.2 1,549.7 1,560.5 1,507.9 1,547.3 1,601.4 1,562.7 1,532.9
1,495.4 1,524.6 1,572.6 1,569.4 1,551.3 1,555.4 1,515.4 1,538.7 1,542.4 1,584.0 1,536.6
Y-o-Y change (%) 2010
-2.5
-9.4
10.6
-3.1
-9.6
-13.6
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-15.5 -23.6 -17.9 -17.2 -5.7 -5.8 -4.3 -4.5 -3.9 -6.2 -0.9 -2.5
-15.4 -19.1 -22.2 -16.8 -7.6 -3.9 -4.5 -4.7 -4.3 -4.4 -3.3 -1.6
-15.4 -15.7 -13.9 -14.2 0.3 2.1 5.4 5.5 3.4 5.9 1.9 10.6
-16.1 -17.1 -16.0 -11.9 -3.0 2.2 3.0 5.8 3.9 5.4 4.8 5.8
-8.7 -18.7 -16.4 -17.2 -16.8 -18.5 -11.1 -15.4 -10.3 -11.9 -13.3 -9.6
-9.3 -13.4 -18.9 -15.2 -15.0 -16.2 -13.4 -13.8 -14.4 -10.5 -11.2 -11.1
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-3.6 -2.6 -2.1 -3.9 -10.0 -10.9 -11.3 -9.9 3.3 -2.0 -0.6
-1.6 -3.4 -1.3 -2.7 -6.8 -10.8 -12.2 -9.0 -4.1 2.8 0.5
5.4 6.3 9.4 10.7 1.3 -2.1 -1.2 -0.7 12.7 4.8 7.4
8.7 5.4 9.6 9.2 5.4 0.7 -3.2 0.8 5.2 10.0 6.8
-6.2 -1.3 3.0 7.6 5.1 5.8 -2.9 2.7 2.9 -0.4 1.0
-8.1 -3.8 1.8 4.5 6.2 5.0 -1.6 1.0 1.6 1.6 -0.3
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
69
Editor-in-Chief Hong Nam-Ki (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim Young-Min (MOSF) Shim Jae-Hak (KDI) Lee Sung-Shin (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Cho Eun-Hyung (MOSF) Eli Horn (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr