ISSN 2287-7266
Republic of Korea
eb.kdi.re.kr
Vol.38 No.9 September 2016
CONOMIC U L L E T I N
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issue 2017 Budget Proposal
Economic News Briefing
Korea Sales Festa Starts September 29 Korea Launches an Open Platform for Fintech Regulations on Free Economic Zones to be Eased Korea Grows 0.8% in Q2
Statistical Appendices
02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview
03
01. External economic situation
04
02. Private consumption
09
03. Facility investment
11
04. Construction investment
14
05. Exports and imports
16
06. Mining and manufacturing production
19
07. Service sector activity
21
08. Employment
23
09. Financial markets
27
9.1 Stock market
27
9.2 Exchange rate
28
9.3 Bond market
28
9.4 Money supply and money market
29
10. Balance of payments
31
11. Prices
33
11.1 Consumer prices
33
11.2 International oil and commodity prices
35
12. Real estate market
38
12.1 Housing market
38
12.2 Land market
40
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
contents
42
43 44 Policy Issue 2017 budget proposal
53 Economic News Briefing 50
Government discusses impact of Hanjin Shipping’s filing for court receivership and subsequent measures Korea Sales Festa starts September 29 Korea launches an open platform for fintech Regulations on free economic zones to be eased External debt rises to US $391.8 bn in Q2 Korea grows 0.8% in Q2 (preliminary)
53 57 Statistical Appendices
Editor-in-Chief Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI) Jung Moo-Kyung (MOSF) Editorial Board Lee Young-Joo (MOSF) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Yu Seong-Im (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) Editors Jeon Aram (MOSF) Kim Hanul (MOSF) Kang Ji-Eun (KDI)
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview
01. External economic situation
02. Private consumption 03. Facility investment 04. Construction investment 05. Exports and imports 06. Mining and manufacturing production 07. Service sector activity 08. Employment 09. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators 02
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Overview
The Korean economy has seen domestic demand weaken as government measures aimed at boosting consumption expired, such as the individual consumption tax cut on cars, while exports improved due to recovering prices and volume as well as other temporary factors. The economy added fewer jobs in July than the previous month (up 354,000 → up 298,000, y-o-y), despite improving job growth in the service sector, as job growth in the manufacturing sector fell sharply due to restructuring. Consumer prices rose at a slower rate in August compared with the previous month (up 0.7% → up 0.4%, y-o-y), due to a temporary reduction in electricity rates. Mining and manufacturing production rebounded in July compared to the previous month, rising 1.4 percent, helped by the Olympics and due to a low base effect. Service output fell 0.7 percent month-on-month in July, due to weak wholesale & retail and fewer stock transactions as well as fewer people engaging in outdoor activities due to extremely hot weather. Retail sales decreased 2.6 percent in July, even though sales of semi-durable goods and nondurable goods increased, as durable goods sales dropped due to a sharp decline in automobile sales following the sunset of the individual consumption tax cut on cars. Facility investment fell sharply in July, down 11.6 percent month-on-month, due to weak transportation equipment. Construction completed rose at a slower pace compared to the previous month, up 1.3 percent, due to weak public sector investment. In July, the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.4 points as the value of construction completed and mining & manufacturing production improved. The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.1 points due to an increase in construction orders received. Exports increased 2.6 percent year-on-year in August, growing for the first time in 20 months since January of last year, due to more days worked and strong exports of vessels. Stock prices fell and Korea Treasury bond yields increased in August following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that pointed to the increasing possibility of the Fed raising rates. Also, the Korean won continued to strengthen, but at a slower pace, against the US dollar following the Chairwoman’s comments. Housing prices increased at a faster rate than the previous month in August (up 0.04% → up 0.07%, m-o-m) due to robust demand for apartments scheduled for reconstruction, while Jeonse (lump-sum
September 2016
03
deposits with no monthly payments) prices increased at the same rate (up 0.08%, m-o-m) due to increasing supply. Economic recovery could be limited if strikes in the automobile industry are prolonged, while external and internal risks to the economy, including the Fed’s rate hike and industrial restructuring, remain. The government will closely monitor domestic and global economic developments as well as examine the possible impact of internal and external uncertainties on domestic financial markets. The government will implement expansionary fiscal policies, including the supplementary budget, as well as formulate other policies aimed at increasing consumption and investment.
1. External economic situation
Major economies including the US and eurozone have yet to build up recovery momentum and emerging economies including China continue to struggle, while risks to the global economy, such as a Fed rate hike, remain.
US
The US economy grew 1.1 percent (annualized q-o-q, preliminary) in the second quarter of 2016 as falling investment offset increasing consumption, while retail sales and employment slowed recently. Industrial production rose 0.7 percent month-on-month in July due to increases in the production of nondurable goods (up 0.6%) such as energy (up 2.2%). Both the ISM Manufacturing Index and the ISM Non-manufacturing Index for August fell. ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 48.2 (Jan 2016) → 49.5 (Feb) → 51.8 (Mar) → 50.8 (Apr) → 51.3 (May) → 53.2 (Jun) → 52.6 (Jul) → 49.4 (Aug) ISM Non-manufacturing Index (base=50) 53.5 (Jan 2016) → 53.4 (Feb) → 54.5 (Mar) → 55.7 (Apr) → 52.9 (May) → 56.5 (Jun) → 55.5 (Jul) → 51.4 (Aug)
Retail sales fell short of market expectations for 0.4 percent growth in July, staying unchanged compared to the previous month and falling 0.3 percent when excluding motor vehicle and auto parts sales. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August fell for the third consecutive month.
04
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (1966=100) 91.7 (Feb 2016) → 91.0 (Mar) → 89.0 (Apr) → 94.7 (May) → 93.5 (Jun) → 90.0 (Jul) → 89.8 (Aug) Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 94.0 (Feb 2016) → 96.1 (Mar) → 94.7 (Apr) → 92.4 (May) → 98.0 (Jun) → 97.3 (Jul) → 101.1 (Aug)
Existing home sales fell 3.2 percent month-on-month to an annualized pace of 5,390,000 in July, falling for the first time in five months, due to rising prices and inadequate supply, while new home sales rose at the highest rate in nine years. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %) 5.6 (Nov 2015) → 5.6 (Dec) → 5.6 (Jan 2016) → 5.4 (Feb) → 5.5 (Mar) → 5.5 (Apr) → 5.3 (May) → 5.1 (Jun) New home sales (m-o-m, %) 6.3 (Nov 2015) → 5.9 (Dec) → -2.2 (Jan 2016) → -0.2 (Feb) → 2.3 (Mar) → 6.1 (Apr) → 0.4 (May) → 1.7 (Jun) → 12.4 (Jul)
The unemployment rate for August stood at 4.9 percent, maintaining a level of full employment, while nonfarm payrolls added 151,000 jobs, falling short of market expectations for 180,000 new jobs, due to declines in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands) 168 (Jan 2016) → 233 (Feb) → 186 (Mar) → 144 (Apr) → 24 (May) → 292 (Jun) → 255 (Jul) → 151 (Aug)
US GDP growth and industrial production
Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board
10 (%) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q)
September 2016
05
US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor 800
12 (thousands)
(%)
600 10 400 200
8
0 6 -200 4
-400 -600
2 -800 -1,000
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)
2015.1
0
2016.1
Unemployment rate (right)
(Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP1
1.7
2015 2014 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.0 2.6
- Personal consumption expenditures
1.5
2.9
4.6
3.2
2.4
2.9
2.7
4.4
-
- Nonresidential fixed investment
3.5
6.0
-1.1
2.1
1.3
1.6
3.9 -3.3 -3.4 -0.9
-
2013
Annual Annual
- Residential fixed investment
Q3 2.0
Q4 0.9
Q1 0.8
Q2 1.1
2.3
1.6
11.7 13.3 14.9 12.6 11.5
7.8 -7.7
2016 May Jun -
Aug -
-
-
-
-
-
-
11.9
3.5
11.4
-
-
-
Industrial production
1.9
2.9
0.9
0.3
-0.5 -0.7
0.4 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2
0.4
0.7
-
Retail sales
3.8
4.1
0.6
2.3
-0.7
1.5
0.9
1.4
0.2
0.8
0.0
-
Existing home sales
9.1
-3.1
1.8
6.3
-0.7
4.6
2.3 -3.8
1.9
3.8
1.5
1.1 -3.2
-
Unemployment rate²
7.4
6.2
5.7
5.3
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.9
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
1.5
1.6
1.2
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.8
-
0.3 -0.1
-
Jul -
1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted (%) Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
China
China’s economy grew 6.7 percent in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations, and has recently shown stable growth mainly backed by industrial production and domestic demand. However, there have been signs of slowdown as fixed asset investment especially in the private sector grew at a slower rate in July and the manufacturing PMI fell below 50.0 for the first time in five months. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 49.4 (Jan 2016) → 49.0 (Feb) → 50.2 (Mar) → 50.1 (Apr) → 50.1 (May) → 50.0 (Jun) → 49.9 (Jul)
06
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment 16
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics 60
(%)
(%)
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10
4
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
GDP (y-o-y, left)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
0
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2013
2014
Real GDP
7.7
7.3
6.9
Q1 7.0
Industrial production
Annual Annual Annual
2015 Q2 7.0
Q3 6.9
Q4 6.8
Q1 6.7
Q2 6.7
2016 May -
Jun -
Jul -
9.7
8.3
6.1
6.4
6.3
5.9
5.9
5.8
6.1
6.0
6.2
6.0
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, nominal)
19.6
15.7
10.0
13.5
11.4
10.3
10.0
10.7
9.0
9.6
9.0
8.1
Retail sales (nominal)
13.1
12.0
10.7
10.6
10.2
10.7
11.1
10.3
10.2
10.0
10.6
10.2
Exports
8.6
5.5
-2.5
4.7
-2.1
-5.9
-5.0
-9.6
-3.6
-4.1
-4.8
-4.4
Consumer prices1
2.6
2.0
1.4
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.5
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
Producer prices
-1.9
-1.9
-5.2
-4.6
-4.8
-5.7
-5.9
-4.8
-2.9
-2.8
-2.6
-1.7
1
1. Quarterly change: Average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
Japan’s economy slowed in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, recording 0.0 percent growth, due to the Kumamoto earthquake and strong yen. In July, there were signs of continuing slowdown as exports fell and industrial production stayed flat. Consumer prices declined for the fifth consecutive month, and so did core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food. Core consumer prices (excluding fresh food, y-o-y, %) -0.1 (Jan 2016) → 0.0 (Feb) → -0.3 (Mar) → -0.4 (Apr) → -0.4 (May) → -0.4 (Jun) → -0.5 (Jul)
September 2016
07
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production
Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 25
6 (%)
(%)
20
4
15 10
2
5 0
0
-5 -2
-10 -15
-4
-20 -6
-25 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
GDP (q-o-q, left)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013
2014
2015 Q2 -0.4
Q3 0.5
Q4 -0.4
Q1 0.5
Q2 0.0
2016 May -
Jun -
Jul -
0.1
-2.6
2.3
0.0
Real GDP
1.4
0.0
0.6
Q1 1.2
Industrial production
-0.6
2.1
-1.2
1.1
-1.3
-1.0
0.0
-1.0
Retail sales
1.2
1.7
-0.4
-1.7
0.2
1.0
-0.2
-2.3
0.1
-0.1
0.3
1.4
Exports (y-o-y)
9.5
4.8
3.4
9.0
6.7
3.7
-4.6
-7.9
-9.5
-11.3
-7.4
-14.0
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
0.4
2.7
0.8
2.3
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
Annual Annual Annual
Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Eurozone
The eurozone economy slowed in the second quarter, growing 0.3 percent compared to the previous quarter, due to weak consumption and sluggish exports. Recovery momentum remains weak as the composite PMI for August fell to the lowest level for the past 19 months. Composite PMI (base=50) 53.6 (Jan 2016) → 53.0 (Feb) → 53.1 (Mar) → 53.0 (Apr) → 53.1 (May) → 53.1 (Jun) → 53.2 (Jul) → 52.9 (Aug) Unemployment rate (%) 10.4 (Jan 2016) → 10.4 (Feb) → 10.2 (Mar) → 10.1 (Apr) → 10.1 (May) → 10.1 (Jun) → 10.1 (Jul)
08
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production
Source: Eurostat
3
10 (%)
(%) 8
2
6 4
1
2 0
0 -2
-1
-4 -6
-2
-8 -3
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2015.Q1
-10
2016.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013
2014 2.0
Q1 0.8
Q3 0.4
Q4 0.4
Q1 0.5
Q2 0.3
2016 May -
Jun -
Real GDP
-0.3
1.1
Q4 0.4
Industrial production
-0.7
0.9
0.6
1.5
0.7
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.8
-0.4
-1.2
0.6
-
Retail sales
-0.6
1.4
1.0
2.7
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.1
0.4
0.0
1.1
Exports (y-o-y)
1.0
2.2
4.4
5.4
5.5
8.2
4.4
3.6
-1.1
-0.4
1.9
-2.2
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
1.4
0.4
0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.2
Annual Annual
Annual
2015 Q2 0.4
Jul -
Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
2. Private consumption
Private consumption (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2016 rose 1.0 percent compared to the previous quarter and rose 3.3 percent compared to a year ago. (Percentage change from previous period)
2013 1.9
1.7
Q1 0.4
-
-
2.8
Annual Annual
Private consumption² (y-o-y)
2014 Q2 -0.3
Q3 0.7
Q4 0.3
Annual¹
2015
1.7
1.4
1.1
2.2
Q1¹ 0.8
-
1.5
-0.1
Q3¹ 1.1
Q4¹ 1.4
2016 Q1¹ Q2¹ -0.2 1.0
1.7
2.2
3.3
2.2
Q2¹
3.3
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea
September 2016
09
Private consumption
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
12 (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Private consumption (q-o-q)
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Private consumption (y-o-y)
Retail sales in July decreased 2.6 percent month-on-month, as sales of durable goods (down 9.9%), such as automobiles, fell, while sales of semi-durable goods (up 0.6%), such as clothing, and sales of nondurable goods (up 0.7%), such as food, increased. Year-on-year, the index rose 4.3 percent. (Percentage change from previous period)
2014 Annual Annual Q3 1.4
-
Q1 1.0
2015 Q2 0.7
Q3 1.3
Q4 3.1
Q2¹ 2.8
2016 Jun¹ 1.1
2013
Retail sales
Q4 0.3
Annual
Jul¹ -2.6
(y-o-y)
0.7
2.0
2.0
2.4
3.9
2.2
3.4
3.6
6.1
6.1
9.0
4.3
- Durable goods2
0.3
5.1
3.2
0.4
10.2
4.3
0.8
2.0
8.2
7.5
2.8
-9.9
· Automobiles
2.1
16.4
5.1
0.3
21.3
7.0
5.4
3.5
11.2
15.3
10.1
-26.4
- Semi-durable goods3
2.1
-0.8
3.9
-2.3
-1.2
-2.0
-1.0
1.8
2.8
2.2
-1.0
0.6
- Nondurable goods
0.4
1.6
-0.8
1.3
2.5
0.6
1.2
0.7
0.3
0.4
0.9
0.7
4
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Domestic sales of cars fell as the individual consumption tax cut on cars ended, while sales at department stores and large discount stores as well as gasoline sales and credit card use continued to rise. (Percentage change from same preriod in previous year)
2016 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
15.8
14.2
13.9
7.2
22.7
9.6
-0.1
4.8
8.0
1.5
Large discount store sales
13.4
-5.4
-1.4
0.2
Domestic sales of gasoline
8.5
-1.1
-0.7
1.6
Domestic sales of cars
-4.5
9.0
18.9
5.8
Credit card use Department store sales
Jul
Aug
12.9
9.1
15.0
13.5
11.2
4.8
-5.5
2.9
5.8
0.2
7.2
4.6
2.3
9.7
20.8
24.1
-10.5
-11.1
Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, data provided by retail industries
10
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
20 (%) 15
10
5
0
-5
-10 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Retail sales (m-o-m)
2016.1
Retail sales (y-o-y)
Retail sales by type
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
50 (y-o-y, %) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.1
2007.1
Durable goods
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Semi-durable goods
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Nondurable goods
3. Facility investment
Facility investment (preliminary GDP) rose 2.8 percent quarter-on-quarter and fell 2.7 percent year-onyear in the second quarter of 2016.
September 2016
11
(Percentage change from previous period)
2014 6.0
Q4 3.5
Annual
Facility investment² (y-o-y)
5.3
Q1¹ 0.5
Annual¹
2015 Q2¹ 0.8
Q3¹ 1.8
2016 Q4¹ 0.5
Q1¹ -7.4
Q2¹ 2.8
-
4.4
-
5.8
5.1
6.7
3.9
-4.5
-2.7
- Machinery
5.0
5.2
2.1
0.1
-2.9
0.8
-3.0
-6.4
1.9
- Transportation equipment
8.3
-0.4
12.5
1.5
9.3
3.7
7.4
-9.4
4.5
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea
Facility investment
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
40 (%) 30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Facility investment (q-o-q)
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Facility investment (y-o-y)
Facility investment by type Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50 (y-o-y, %) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
Transportation equipment
12
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Machinery
The facility investment index in July decreased 11.6 percent month-on-month as both machinery and transportation equipment investment declined. The index fell 12.3 percent year-on-year.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2015
2014 Facility investment index
Annual
Annual
5.2
6.3
Q1 -0.2
2016
-2.2
Q3 5.2
Q2
Q4 -1.2
Q1 -8.7
6.2
Jun1 4.8
Jul1 -11.6
Q21
(y-o-y)
-
-
9.2
4.5
10.2
1.6
-7.1
0.8
2.2
-12.3
- Machinery
3.9
2.9
-0.1
-6.0
0.7
-2.6
-5.3
-0.4
2.6
-0.2
- Transportation equipment
8.8
14.9
-1.0
8.8
16.5
1.0
-14.3
20.5
10.5
-31.5
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10
60
(y-o-y, %)
(trillion won) 9
40 8 7
20
6 0
5 4
-20 3 -40
2 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Machinery orders (left)
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Machinery imports (right)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2015
2014 Annual Annual
Domestic machinery orders (q-o-q, m-o-m)
14.8
-3.6
Q1 -3.0
14.9
Q3 -27.1
Q2
Q4 6.9
Q1 0.9
2016 Q21 Jun1 -3.0 24.7
Jul1 3.7
-
-
-0.1
8.6
-10.0
9.2
-6.3
4.6
19.1
-12.8
- Public
94.2
-61.7
-66.9
61.7
-85.3
-19.8
56.9
15.1
23.6
-61.9
- Private
4.8
10.0
11.4
12.5
4.7
10.8
-2.9
-4.3
24.8
8.3
Machinery imports
5.8
0.3
8.5
-1.1
2.3
-6.4
-13.0
-6.7
2.0
-15.3
Average manufacturing operation ratio
76.1
74.3
74.3
74.3
74.9
73.6
73.2
72.2
72.2
73.8
Facility investment adjustment pressure²
-1.4
-1.8
-2.8
-2.8
-1.2
-0.6
-0.7
0.6
0.6
1.2
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
September 2016
13
The facility investment outlook is mixed: Facility investment adjustment pressure has been rising, but the average manufacturing operation ratio remains low, and automobile sales continue to decrease. Domestic automobile sales growth (y-o-y, %) 9.0 (Feb 2016) → 18.9 (Mar) → 5.8 (Apr) → 20.8 (May) → 24.1 (Jun) → -10.5 (Jul) → -11.1 (Aug)
4. Construction investment
Construction investment in the second quarter of 2016 (preliminary GDP) rose 3.1 percent quarter-onquarter and 10.8 percent year-on-year.
Construction investment
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
20 (%) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Construction investment (q-o-q)
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Construction investment (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2014 3.9
Q1¹ 5.5
2015 Q2¹ 1.8
Q3¹ 3.3
Q4¹ -2.4
Q1¹ 6.8
2016 Q2¹ 3.1
-
0.9
1.0
5.6
7.5
9.6
10.8
Annual¹
1.1
Q4 1.4
-
-1.5
- Building construction
6.3
-4.9
6.3
2.5
4.9
5.6
0.3
3.6
5.5
- Civil engineering works
-7.3
-4.7
-7.3
11.4
-3.8
-1.4
-8.0
14.0
-1.9
Annual
Construction investment² (y-o-y)
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea
The value of construction completed (constant) in July rose 1.3 percent month-on-month as both civil engineering works and building construction increased. The index rose 21.4 percent year-on-year.
14
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Construction investment by type Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50 (y-o-y, %) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Residential buildings
Building construction
2016.Q1
Civil engineering works
(Percentage change from previous period)
2.3
Q1 4.1
2015 Q2 -2.1
Q3 6.4
Q4 0.0
Q1 9.4
Q21 2.4
2016 Jun1 3.9
Jul1 1.3
-
-2.0
-3.9
5.9
8.0
14.8
19.3
20.3
21.4
7.8
6.0
4.4
-0.7
9.5
2.6
9.0
2.1
4.8
1.2
-12.3
-3.8
3.7
-4.4
0.9
-5.0
10.2
0.5
2.1
1.4
2014 Construction completed (constant) (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works
Annual
Annual
-0.7 -
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Construction completed is expected to rise, given a large increase in construction orders, particularly for civil engineering works. However, the index may be temporarily hampered by falls in apartment presales and shipments of intermediate goods. Apartment presales (thousands, Real Estate 114) 8 (Jan 2016) → 9 (Feb) → 38 (Mar) → 35 (Apr) → 54 (May) → 41 (Jun) → 48 (Jul) → 30 (Aug) Domestic shipments of cement (million tons) 3.01 (Jan 2016) → 2.89 (Feb) → 5.50 (Mar) → 5.00 (Apr) → 5.10 (May) → 4.85 (Jun) → 4.50 (Jul) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2015
2014 Annual Annual
Construction orders (current value)
2016
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q21
Jun1
Jul1
16.3
48.2
57.4
49.1
50.4
40.1
13.8
-6.2
-7.3
44.4
-
-
47.4
11.6
21.3
-26.5
17.7
-10.1
-3.8
62.6
- Building construction
24.5
50.1
89.5
49.3
42.5
37.8
13.1
2.6
16.8
34.2
- Civil engineering works
-4.4
42.9
1.7
48.3
83.6
45.9
16.0
-32.8
-51.2
91.5
Building permits²
11.2
34.3
11.0
25.1
57.0
40.4
19.7
5.3
7.6
-27.93
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
1. Preliminary 2. Floor area 3. Due to a high base effect from a year ago when apartment presales surged 88.2% y-o-y Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
September 2016
15
Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 300 (y-o-y, %) 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Construction orders
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Building permit area
5. Exports and imports
Exports (preliminary) increased 2.6 percent year-on-year to US $40.13 billion in August. Exports increased for the first time in 20 months thanks to increased days worked (up 2 days, y-o-y) and strong vessel exports. By region, shipments to Japan and the ASEAN countries turned positive and by item, shipments of vessels, steel, semiconductors and petrochemicals increased. Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 7.2 (Japan), 2.6 (ASEAN countries), -4.8 (EU), -4.8 (US), -5.3 (China), -7.6 (Middle East), -16.2 (Latin America) Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 89.9 (vessels), 5.4 (steel), 2.5 (semiconductors), 4.1 (petrochemicals), -9.0 (mobile phones), -14.8 (automobiles), -26.9 (petroleum products)
By volume, exports in August fell at a faster rate of 3.3 percent than the 1.6 percent in the previous month. Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, decreased month-on-month to US $1.67 billion. Average daily exports (US $ billion) 1.62 (Jan 2016) → 1.80 (Feb) → 1.79 (Mar) → 1.83 (Apr) → 1.85 (May) → 1.96 (Jun) → 1.74 (Jul) → 1.67 (Aug)
16
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(US $ billion)
2014 Exports
2015
2016
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Aug
572.66
526.76
133.40
135.10
128.24
130.02
2.3
-8.0
-3.0
-7.3
-9.5
2.11
1.93
2.01
1.99
1.87
(y-o-y, %) Average daily exports
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug1
39.11
115.59
126.01
40.99
40.13
-12.0
-15.2
-13.4
-6.7
-10.3
2.6
1.86
1.78
1.74
1.88
1.74
1.67
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Exports by item
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
160 140
(y-o-y, %)
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Exports
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Semiconductors
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Automobiles
Steel
Imports (preliminary) in August rose 0.1 percent year-on-year to US $34.82 billion. Imports increased for the first time in 23 months as capital and consumer goods imports increased and commodities imports decreased at a slower rate. Import growth by category (y-o-y, %, Jul → Aug) -18.4 → -5.2 (commodities), -8.6 → 4.3 (capital goods), -8.6 → 7.7 (consumer goods) (US $ billion)
2014 Imports (y-o-y, %) Average daily imports
2015
2016
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug1
525.51
436.50
111.77
110.50
107.96
106.27
34.77
93.72
98.94
33.39
34.82
1.9
-16.9
-15.6
-15.6
-18.7
-17.8
-18.7
-16.2
-10.5
-13.6
0.1
1.94
1.60
1.68
1.62
1.58
1.52
1.58
1.41
1.48
1.42
1.45
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
September 2016
17
Imports by category
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
100 (y-o-y, %) 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Imports
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Commodities
2016.1
Capital goods
The trade balance (preliminary) posted a surplus of US $5.30 billion in August, staying in the black for the 55th consecutive month. Surpluses decreased compared with the previous month. (US $ billion)
2014 Trade balance
2015
2016
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug1
47.15
90.26
21.63
24.61
20.28
23.74
4.34
21.87
27.07
7.60
5.30
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Exports and imports
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
60 (US$ billion) 50
40
30
20
10
0
-10 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Trade balance
18
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2012.1
Exports
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Imports
6. Mining and manufacturing production
Mining and manufacturing production rose 1.4 percent month-on-month in July, backed by strong electronic parts and automobiles, despite a fall in communications equipment and other transportation equipment. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index increased 1.7 percent.
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50 (%) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Industrial production (m-o-m)
2016.1
Industrial production (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
-
2015 Q2 -0.5
Jul -0.7
Q1 -0.6
Q2ยน 1.0
2016 May 2.8
-0.6
-1.3
-3.4
-0.2
1.0
-
-0.5
-0.7
-0.7
1.1
(y-o-y)
-0.6
-1.3
-3.5
-0.4
Shipment
-0.2
-0.4
-0.2
-1.8
- Domestic consumption
0.4
0.5
0.5
- Exports
-1.0
-1.5
-1.1
Annual
(q-o-q, m-o-m) Mining and manufacturing2 (y-o-y) Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Manufacturing
Inventory 3
Junยน -0.4
Julยน 1.4
4.7
0.8
1.6
3.0
-0.4
1.3
1.1
4.9
1.0
1.7
2.1
1.5
0.5
0.1
-0.9
0.9
0.9
-0.3
0.5
-3.1
3.5
2.0
1.6
-0.3
2.9
2.3
0.2
3.9
-2.6
0.1
-0.5
-0.7
Average operation ratio (%)
74.3
74.3
74.4
73.2
72.2
73.1
72.2
73.8
Production capacity (y-o-y)
1.2
1.5
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.4
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing and electricity & gas industry Source: Statistics Korea
3. End-period
Compared to the previous month, production of electronic parts (up 6.4%), automobiles (up 3.7%) and semiconductors (up 3.2%) rose, while communications equipment (down 10.6%), other transportation equipment (down 3.3%) and processed metals (down 1.8%) fell. Compared to a year ago, production of semiconductors (up 46.7%), chemical products (up 2.8%) and electronic parts (up 3.6%) rose, while automobiles (down 6.0%), processed metals (down 8.9%) and other communications equipment (down 9.0%) declined.
September 2016
19
The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell 0.9 percentage points month-on-month to 120.0 percent as inventories fell 0.7 percent and shipments increased 0.1 percent. Inventories of automobiles (up 6.2%), communications equipment (up 37.5%) and food (up 4.7%) rose, while refined petroleum (down 11.7%), primary metals (down 2.7%) and electronic parts (down 6.9%) declined. Shipments of electronic parts (up 9.3%), refined petroleum (up 5.6%) and primary metals (up 1.4%) rose, while semiconductors (down 3.9%), communications equipment (down 16.6%) and automobiles (down 1.0%) fell.
Shipment and inventory
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
10 (m-o-m, %)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Shipment growth
2016.1
Inventory growth
The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector increased 1.6 percentage points month-onmonth to 73.8 percent.
Average manufacturing operation ratio
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
100 (%) 90
80
70
60
50
20
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Mining and manufacturing for August is expected to increase in line with increasing exports. However, the index may be hindered by autoworker strikes.
7. Service sector activity
Service output in July decreased 0.7 percent month-on-month and increased 2.7 percent year-on-year.
Service sector activity
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
15 (%)
10
5
0
-5
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Service sector activity (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
Weight Service activity index 100.0 - Wholesale & retail 21.6 - Transportation services 8.5 - Hotels & restaurants 7.2 - Publishing & communications services 8.4 - Financial & insurance services 14.7 - Real estate & renting 5.3 - Professional, scientific & technical services 5.6 - Business services 3.3 - Education services 10.9 - Healthcare & social welfare services 7.5 - Entertainment, cultural & sports services 2.9 - Membership organizations & personal services 3.6 - Sewerage & waste management 0.6
2013
2014
Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1
1.5 0.1 1.0 0.5 2.2 0.5 2.5 3.3 2.1 0.8 5.2 -0.7 6.1 -0.4
2.3 0.4 1.7 1.5 2.0 5.2 6.2 2.3 2.5 1.3 6.3 -1.0 -0.5 1.0
0.8 -0.4 1.8 -1.7 -0.4 3.3 4.3 2.9 0.8 -0.4 2.2 -2.3 -1.9 3.6
2.8 1.7 1.4 -2.0 -0.6 9.0 8.1 -0.4 3.9 0.9 6.2 1.1 -0.5 7.2
0.5 0.7 -0.2 -0.6 -1.9 1.6 -0.8 -2.9 2.3 1.0 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.6
2016 2015 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q21 Jun1 Jul1 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.0 -0.7 0.3 0.9 2.2 2.0 0.5 -0.5 -2.6 1.9 1.9 -0.5 0.4 1.9 -3.4 2.1 0.8 -0.8 -0.2 1.9 -0.5 3.0 1.1 1.9 1.8 -2.8 3.8 1.2 -0.4 1.6 1.7 -1.0 6.4 0.9 -0.5 2.9 1.5 1.9 -0.1 1.6 0.3 1.5 -0.5 -5.3 0.4 -1.0 3.4 -0.6 1.8 0.9 -0.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 1.4 3.1 3.6 2.2 0.3 -2.5 1.0 3.2 5.8 7.2 -6.2 1.6 -0.2 -2.7 1.0 -0.6 -1.6 3.6 4.6 -4.6 4.4 3.5 -7.1
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
September 2016
21
Month-on-month, transportation services (up 1.9%), hotels & restaurants (up 1.9%), real estate & renting (up 1.9%) and healthcare & social welfare services (up 0.3%) increased, while professional, scientific & technical services (down 5.3%), wholesale & retail (down 0.5%), publishing & communications services (down 2.8%) and entertainment, cultural & sports services (down 6.2%) decreased.
Wholesale & retail
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
15 (%)
10
5
0
-5
-10
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Wholesale & retail (m-o-m)
2015.1
2016.1
Wholesale & retail (y-o-y)
July 2016 service output by business
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
4 (y-o-y, %) 2
Financial & insurance services
0
-2
-4
Real estate & renting
Transportation services
Total index
Wholesale & retail
Hotels & reataurants
Business services
Professional, scientific & technical services
-8
Health & social welfare services Membership organizations & personal services
Publishing & communications services
-6
Sewerage & waste management
Education services
Entertainment, cultural & sports services
The service output in August is expected to be affected by decreases in domestic sales of cars and average daily stock transactions. Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 8.7 (Oct 2015) → 8.3 (Nov) → 7.1 (Dec) → 8.3 (Jan 2016) → 7.8 (Feb) → 7.5 (Mar) → 8.1 (Apr) → 8.5 (May) → 9.1 (Jun) → 8.3 (Jul) → 7.9 (Aug)
22
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
8. Employment
The number of workers on payroll in July increased by 298,000 from a year earlier to 26,600,000, and the employment rate rose 0.4 percentage points to 66.7 percent. By industry, services continued to lead employment growth. By employment status, permanent workers continued to drive employment growth, while temporary, daily and self-employed workers fell at a slower pace.
Number of persons employed and employment growth
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
1,000
27 (thousands)
(millions)
800
26
600 25 400 24 200 23 0 22
-200
-400
21 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64 (%) 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55
2006.1
Original data
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
September 2016
23
Employment by industry
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
100
80
60
71.1 71.2 70.6 69.7 69.4 69.3 69.6 69.7 69.6 69.5 69.8 70.8 71.5 71.4 70.8 70.2 70.0 69.9 69.9 70.2 70.2 70.1 70.6 71.2 71.5 71.5 70.9 70.7 70.6 70.7 70.9
40 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 20
0
17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.3 17.2 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.3 17.6 17.9 17.9 17.5 17.3 17.1 16.9 16.8 4.4 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.8 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.1 4.0 3.6 3.8 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.3 2014.1 2
3
4
5
6
7
Services
8
9
10
11
12 2015.1 2
3
4
Construction
5
6
8
9
10
11
12 2016.1 2
Manufacturing
2012 2013
2014
Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1
Number of employed (millions)
7
3
4
5
6
7
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
2015 Q2 Q3
Q4
Jul
Q1
2016 Q2 Jun
Jul
24.68 25.07 25.60 25.77 25.94 25.27 26.10 26.24 26.14 26.31 25.55 26.39 26.56 26.60
Employment rate (%)
59.4 59.5 60.2 60.4 60.6 59.0 60.7 60.9 60.5 61.1 59.7 60.8 61.2 61.2
(Seasonally adjusted)
59.4 59.5 60.2 60.3 60.3 60.5 59.9 60.3 60.5 60.1 60.5 60.1 60.2 60.3
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
437
386
533
422
337
354
308
310
376
326
287
289
354
298
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)
451
394
601
531
444
441
435
419
482
418
341
375
453
410
- Manufacturing
14
79
146
129
156
139
147
164
176
170
126
38
15
-65
- Construction
22
-19
42
72
27
72
44
11
-19
25
-7
-28
-24
1
- Services
416
318
424
336
250
222
235
234
309
212
216
360
454
465
- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-14
-8
-87 -127 -115 -106
-91
-54
-86
-98 -111
-68 -109 -107
Source: Statistics Korea
Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100
80
4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.0 20.8 20.9 20.9 21.3 21.2 21.3 21.2 21.2 6.3 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.8
60
19.3 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.5 20.1 19.7 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.2 19.8
40
20
48.3 48.2 47.8 47.3 47.1 47.2 46.8 47.0 47.1 47.2 47.3 48.5 49.0 49.0 48.5 48.1 47.8 47.9 48.0 48.5 48.6 48.7 48.7 49.7 50.4 50.6 49.9 49.4 49.1 48.9 48.8
0 2014.1 2
3
4
Unpaid family workers
24
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12 2015.1 2
Self-employed workers
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
3
4
5
6
Daily workers
7
8
9
10
11
12 2016.1 2
Temporary workers
3
4
5
6
7
Permanent workers
2012 2013
2014
Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1
2015 Q2 Q3
Q4
Jul
Q1
2016 Q2 Jun
Jul
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
437
386
533 422
337
354
308
310
376
326
287
289
354
298
- Wage workers
315
483
548 476
487
442
422
521
565
478
427
392
433
356
路 Permanent workers
436
615
443 355
432
355
332
505
536
462
505
457
443
364
路 Temporary workers
-2
-96
140 141
54
82
3
1
129
-31
15
120
107
70
-120
-37
-35
-20
1
4
87
15 -100
47
-93 -185 -117
-78
121
-97
-15
-54
-151
1
路 Daily workers - Nonwage workers 路 Self-employed workers
-88 -114 -211 -189 -151 -140 -103
-78
-58
124
-67
7
-89
-49
-37 -136 -135
-76
-96
-68
-29
-10
- Male
234
186
266 196
132
141
145
111
132
118
107
124
192
163
- Female
203
200
267 226
205
213
163
199
244
208
180
165
162
136
- 15 to 29
-36
-50
77
56
68
32
90
50
100
22
40
82
131
88
- 30 to 39
-31
-21
-21
-29
-38
-1
-56
-60
-36
-53
-21
-23
-28
-56
38
- 40 to 49
11
22
4
-14
-47
-15
1
7
4
6
-41
-33
-9
- 50 to 59
270
254
239 190
149
177
138
145
135
180
84
82
88
45
- 60 or more
222
181
200 201
172
192
150
174
169
173
179
189
197
230
Source: Statistics Korea
The number of unemployed persons in July was down 24,000 year-on-year to 975,000, and the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 3.5 percent. The unemployment rate fell in all age groups except in the group of those in their 30s. The economically inactive population in July increased 113,000 from a year earlier to 15,860,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 63.5 percent. The number of those economically inactive due to education (down 107,000) and childcare (down 71,000) decreased, while those due to rest (up 92,000) increased.
Unemployment rate
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
6 (%)
5
4
3
2
2006.1
Original data
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
September 2016
25
2012 2013
2015 Q2 Q3
Q4
Jul
976 1,089 1,042 929
845
998 1,153 1,028 1,004
2014
Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual
Number of unemployed (thousands)
Q1
Q1
Q2
2016 Jun
Jul
820
807
937
854
-35
-13
137
121
40
58
65
45
-9
87
64
-14
-46
-24
-26 -9 3.2
-6 -7 3.1
49 80 3.5
59 63 3.2
24 16 3.6
25 32 4.1
42 23 3.8
31 14 3.4
-3 -6 3.1
71 16 3.7
51 13 4.3
11 -24 3.8
-15 -32 3.6
3 -27 3.5
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
- 15 to 29
7.5
8.0
9.0
8.3
9.2
10.3
9.9
8.4
8.0
9.4
11.3
10.3
10.3
9.2
- 30 to 39
3.0
3.0
3.1
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.2
- 40 to 49
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.0
2.4
2.4
2.1
1.9
2.0
- 50 to 59
2.1
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.4
1.9
2.5
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.4
- 60 or more
2.4
1.8
2.3
1.6
2.5
4.1
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.3
4.2
2.2
2.0
2.1
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands) - Male - Female Unemployment rate (%)
975
Source: Statistics Korea
Labor force participation rate
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
65 (%) 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Original data
Seasonally adjusted rate
2012 2013
2014
Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1
Economically inactive population (millions)
2016.1
2015 Q2 Q3
Q4
Jul
Q1
2016 Q2 Jun
Jul
16.08 16.22 15.98 16.07 16.11 16.47 15.84 15.92 16.19 15.75 16.57 15.97 15.86 15.86
Labor force participation rate (%)
61.3
61.5
62.4 62.4 62.6 61.5 63.2 63.0 62.5 63.4 61.7 63.2 63.5 63.5
(Seasonally adjusted)
61.3
61.5
62.4 62.4 62.6 62.8 62.3 62.5 62.6 62.5 62.8 62.4 62.5 62.5
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)
128
141 -246 -101
- Childcare
-2
1
128
72
150
162
128
114
99
135
89
113
-39
-31
8
41
50
3
-63
22 -115 -105
-83
-71
- Housework
123
-3 -131
-67
-45
-91
-41
-19
-29
-76
32
69
76
97
- Education
-12
77
-72 -146 -141 -213 -112 -118 -137 -108
-89
-88 -107
- Old age
148
54
93
89
109
68
95
103
171
100
161
109
106
88
- Rest
-53
-7
-92
-15
141
154
151
123
136
92
97
141
133
92
-81
Source: Statistics Korea
26
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market
The KOSPI rose 0.9 percent in August from 2,016.2 points to 2,034.7 points, and the KOSDAQ fell 6.0 percent from 706.2 points to 663.7 points. The KOSPI rose to 2,056.24 points on August 19, the highest level this year, driven by abundant global liquidity. The index, however, fell slightly as hawkish comments from Fed officials caused concerns over a US rate hike. KOSPI (point) 2,029.61 (Aug 1) → 1,994.79 (Aug 3, monthly low) → 2,056.24 (Aug 19, yearly high) → 2,034.65 (Aug 31)
Stock prices 2,400 (monthly average) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
KOSPI
KOSDAQ
(Closing rate)
Jul 2016
KOSPI Aug 2016
Jul 2016
KOSDAQ Aug 2016
Change1
Change1
Stock price index (points)
2,016.2
2,034.7
+18.5 (+0.9%)
706.2
663.7
-42.5 (-6.0%)
Market capitalization (trillion won)
1,283.2
1,296.9
+13.7 (+1.1%)
215.4
204.4
-11.0 (-5.1%)
4.2
4.4
+0.2 (+3.6%)
4.1
3.5
-0.6 (-14.3%)
33.84
34.41
+0.57 (+1.7%)
9.82
9.98
+0.16 (+1.6%)
Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)
1. Change from the end of the previous month in August 2016 Source: Korea Exchange
September 2016
27
9.2 Exchange rate
The dollar-won exchange rate fell to around 1,092 won in mid-August due to the weak dollar amid lower expectations for a US rate hike, S&P’s decision to upgrade Korea’s long-term sovereign credit rating and foreign investors’ net buying of Korean shares. The exchange rate, however, rebounded to wrap up the month at 1,114.8 won as Fed Chair Janet Yellen signaled a possible rate increase in the coming months. The 100 yen-won exchange rate fell slightly from 1,081.6 won to 1,080.7 won in August. The dollaryen exchange rate fell from 103.6 yen to 103.2 yen as Japan’s extra stimulus package did not meet investors’ expectations.
Foreign exchange rates
Source: Bank of Korea
1,800 (month-end, \) 1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Dollar-Won
2016.1
100 Yen-Won
(Closing rate)
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
2014 Dec
2015 Dec
Jul
2016 Aug
Change1
Dollar-Won
1,134.8
1,151.8
1,070.6
1,055.4
1,099.3
1,172.5
1,120.2
1,114.8
+0.5
100 Yen-Won
1,393.6
1,481.2
1,238.3
1,002.3
913.0
974.1
1,081.6
1,080.7
+0.1
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year in August 2016 (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time. Source: Bank of Korea
9.3 Bond market
Treasury bond yields stayed nearly unchanged until mid-August, but rose toward the end of the month as expectations for a US rate hike rose following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on August 26 at the Jackson Hole central bankers’ symposium as well as hawkish comments from Fed vicechair Stanley Fischer.
28
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Interest rates
Source: Bank of Korea
10 (monthly average, yearly, %) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Overnight call rate (daily)
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
3-yr Treasury bond yield
2016.1
3-yr corporate bond yield
(Closing rate, %)
Call rate (1 day)
2010 Dec 2.51
2011 Dec 3.29
2012 Dec 2.77
2013 Dec 2.52
2014 Dec 2.03
2015 Dec 1.52
Jun 1.23
Jul 1.24
2016 Aug 1.25
Change1 +1
CD (91 days)
2.80
3.55
2.89
2.66
2.13
1.67
1.37
1.36
1.34
-1
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
3.38
3.34
2.82
2.86
2.10
1.66
1.25
1.22
1.31
-3
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
4.27
4.21
3.29
3.29
2.43
2.11
1.69
1.64
1.69
-5
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
4.08
3.46
2.97
3.23
2.28
1.81
1.30
1.24
1.35
-6
1. Basis points, changes from the previous month in August 2016 Source: Bank of Korea
9.4 Money supply and money market
M2 (monthly average) in June increased 7.2 percent from a year earlier, a faster pace than the previous month. Private sector credit expanded as security investment by depository institutions increased, but the current account surplus fell. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
M1²
11.8
6.6
3.8
9.5
10.9
M2
8.7
4.2
5.2
4.8
LfÂł
8.2
5.3
7.8
6.9
2016
18.6
Apr 18.0
May 16.2
Jun 15.9
Jun1 730.2
6.6
8.6
7.0
6.7
7.2
2,333.6
7.0
9.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
3,221.8
1. Balance at end June 2016, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) Source: Bank of Korea
September 2016
29
Total money supply Source: Bank of Korea 40 (y-o-y, monthly average balance, %) 30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Reserve money
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
M1
2016.1
Lf
Bank deposits shifted to a decrease in July as instant access deposits fell by 10.9 trillion won due to seasonal factors such as fund withdrawals by corporations to pay value added taxes (VATs). Asset management company (AMC) deposits turned to an increase backed by money market funds (MMFs). MMFs increased 18.5 trillion won as corporations re-deposited funds they temporarily withdrew to improve their financial ratios at the end of the first half, and as the government deposited surplus funds.
Deposits in financial institutions
Source: Bank of Korea
60 (y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
(Change from the end of the previous period, trillion won)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Bank deposits
36.9
58.9
37.0
41.0
115.4
100.3
Apr -11.0
AMC deposits
-16.7
-16.6
18.8
17.7
42.4
44.4
7.4
1. Balance at end July 2016 Source: Bank of Korea
30
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
May 11.4
2016 Jun 14.3
Jul -1.8
Jul1 1,417.7
13.9
-4.6
23.3
485.8
10. Balance of payments
Korea’s current account (preliminary) in July posted a surplus of US $8.71 billion, staying in the black for 53 consecutive months. The goods account surplus decreased month-on-month from US $12.71 billion to US $10.81 billion. Growth in goods exports (y-o-y, %) -7.6 (Jun 2016) → -10.0 (Jul) Growth in goods imports (y-o-y, %) -10.1 (Jun 2016) → -15.1 (Jul) Export growth by item in July (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) -10.3 (total), -11.3 (steel), -2.6 (semiconductors), -14.6 (automobiles), -4.0 (mobile phones), -42.5 (vessels), -26.9 (petroleum products) Import growth by category in July (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) -13.6 (total), -18.4 (commodities), -8.6 (capital goods), -8.6 (consumer goods)
Current account balance
Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
15 (US$ billion)
10
5
0
-5
2006.1
2007.1
Goods account
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Services account
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Current account
The services account deficit expanded month-on-month from US $1.38 billion to US $1.53 billion, despite a decrease in the other businesses account deficit, due to an increase in the travel account deficit. Services account (US $ billion, Jun → Jul) -0.49 → -0.42 (manufacturing), -0.28 → -0.30 (transportation), -0.74 → -1.28 (travel), 0.74 → 0.77 (construction), 0.04 → 0.00 (intellectual property rights), -0.75 → -0.47 (other businesses)
September 2016
31
Travel balance
Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
4 (US $ billion) 3
2
1
-1
-2
-3
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Travel balance
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Travel revenue
2016.1
Travel payment
The primary income account surplus decreased from US $1.26 billion to US $0.05 billion as dividend income decreased. The secondary income account deficit rose from US $0.52 billion to US $0.62 billion.
(US $ billion)
2015
2014
Jul1 9.71
Q11 24.08
2016 Q21 Jun1 25.90 12.06
31.76
9.92
27.88
33.12
12.71
10.81
-4.67
-1.25
-4.17
-4.14
-1.38
-1.53
2.73
0.90
1.14
1.25
-1.90
1.26
0.05
-0.70
-1.58
-0.10
-0.88
-1.18
-0.52
-0.62
Annual
Annual1
Current account
84.37
105.87
Q11 22.44
Q21 27.92
29.11
Q41 26.41
- Goods balance
88.89
120.29
24.22
33.68
30.64
- Services balance
-3.68
-15.71
-4.39
-3.09
-3.56
- Primary income balance
4.15
5.90
3.83
-1.56
- Secondary income balance
-4.98
-4.61
-1.22
-1.11
Q31
Jul1 8.71
1. Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in July saw an outflow of US $9.39 billion. Capital & financial account balance* (US $ billion) 10.02 (Jul 2015) → 6.48 (Jan 2016) → 9.50 (Feb) → 12.24 (Mar) → 0.17 (Apr) → 8.93 (May) → 9.60 (Jun) → 9.39 (Jul) * Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows.
Net outflows of FDI decreased from US $1.48 billion a month earlier to US $0.95 billion as Korean FDI (up US $2.82 billion → up US $2.20 billion) slowed down at a faster pace than inbound FDI (up US $1.35 billion → up US $1.25 billion). Net outflows of portfolio investment fell from US $6.20 billion to US $0.09 billion, as foreign investment in Korean shares shifted to an increase (down US $2.22 billion → up US $4.53 billion), although Korean
32
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
investment in foreign shares expanded at a faster pace (up US $3.98 billion → up US $4.62 billion). Financial derivatives investment reversed from a net outflow of US $0.37 billion to a net inflow of US $0.48 billion. Net outflows of other investment increased from US $2.33 billion to US $6.86 billion. The current account surplus is expected to decrease in August as net exports fell to US $5.3 billion.
Capital & financial account balance
Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
15 (US$ billion) 10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Direct investment
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Portfolio investment
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Financial derivatives
2016.1
Capital & financial account
11. Prices
11.1 Consumer prices
Consumer prices in August rose 0.4 percent year-on-year and fell 0.1 percent month-on-month.
Consumer price inflation
(%)
2015
2016
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Year-on-Year
0.6
0.9
1.0
1.3
0.8
1.3
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.4
Month-on-Month
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.0
0.8
-0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
Source: Statistics Korea
September 2016
33
Consumer price inflation
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
7 (%) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
2015.1
2016.1
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)
Slower consumer price inflation in August was mainly due to a cut in electricity rates, which accelerated a drop in public utility prices (down 3.9% → down 12.6%). Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products rose at a faster pace (up 0.2% → up 1.0%) as the abnormally hot weather pushed up the prices of some vegetables.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Jul (y-o-y, %)
0.7
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products 0.2
Aug (y-o-y, %) - Contribution (%p)
0.4 -
1.0 0.07
Total
Manufactured Oil products products -0.5 -8.9 -0.5 -0.16
-8.8 -0.37
Public utilities -3.9
Housing rents 2.5
Public services 1.0
Personal services 2.1
-12.6 -0.57
2.5 0.24
1.0 0.14
2.2 0.69
Source: Statistics Korea
Prices
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
16 (y-o-y, %) 12
8
4
0
-4
-8
2006.1
2007.1
Consumer price inflation
34
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Core inflation
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Producer price inflation
Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products rose 1.1 percent year-on-year, a slower pace than the previous month. Consumer prices excluding food and energy were up 1.7 percent, the same pace as the previous month. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2015
2016
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products
2.4
2.4
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.1
Consumer prices excluding food and energy
2.7
2.8
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.7
Source: Statistics Korea
Consumer prices for basic necessities fell 0.6 percent from a year earlier due to electricity rate cuts. Fresh food prices rose 2.8 percent year-on-year as vegetable prices were up amid unusually hot weather conditions. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2015 Consumer prices for basic necessities
Nov 0.1
Dec 0.6
Jan 0.2
Feb 0.9
Mar 0.4
Apr 0.5
2016 May 0.1
Jun 0.1
Jul 0.0
Aug -0.6
Fresh food prices
3.0
6.2
4.2
9.7
9.7
9.6
3.5
-1.7
-0.4
2.8
Source: Statistics Korea
11.2 International oil and commodity prices
International oil prices rose in August due to the weak dollar, a decrease in US oil inventories and expectations that oil producing countries could reach an agreement to coordinate oil production. Oil producers will discuss ways to cap production at a meeting in Algeria on September 26-28. Dubai crude (US $/barrel) 39.7 (1st week Aug) → 41.6 (2nd week) → 46.0 (3rd week) → 45.7 (4th week) → 44.2 (5th week)
(US $/barrel, period average)
2014
2016
2015
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Dubai crude
96.6
50.7
51.9
60.5
49.9
40.8
30.5
43.2
39.0
44.3
46.3
42.5
43.6
Brent crude
99.4
53.6
55.1
63.5
51.3
44.7
35.2
47.0
43.3
47.7
49.9
46.5
47.2
WTI crude
92.9
48.8
48.6
58.0
46.5
42.2
33.7
45.6
41.1
46.8
48.9
44.8
44.8
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
September 2016
35
International oil prices
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
160 (US $/B) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Dubai crude
WTI
Domestic gasoline prices fell in August as a decline in international oil prices was reflected with a time lag. Domestic gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,423.9 (1st week Aug) → 1,415.0 (2nd week) → 1,408.5 (3rd week) → 1,406.7 (4th week) → 1,408.2 (5th week) International gasoline prices (US $/barrel) 49.2 (3rd week Jul) → 46.8 (4th week) → 46.4 (1st week Aug) → 48.1 (2nd week) → 53.4 (3rd week) Dollar-won exchange rate (won) 1,137.1 (3rd week Jul) → 1,133.6 (4th week) → 1,113.4 (1st week Aug) → 1,103.4 (2nd week) → 1,100.3 (3rd week)
Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
160 (thousand won/B)
(US $/B)
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)
36
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Dubai international prices (dollar, right)
(Won/liter, period average)
2014
2016
2015
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Gasoline prices
1,827
1,510
1,485
1,543
1,544
1,468
1,363
1,396
1,362
1,389
1,438
1,437
1,412
Diesel prices
1,638
1,300
1,313
1,344
1,309
1,233
1,121
1,168
1,121
1,158
1,225
1,228
1,207
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
International prices of wheat and corn fell due to an upward revision to the stock outlooks and higher estimates for land allocated to growing these crops. The International Grains Council (IGC) on August 25 revised up its forecast for global grain stocks (wheat and coarse grains) in 2016-17 from 488 million tons to 492 million tons. International grain price increases in August (monthly average, m-o-m, %) -3.1 (wheat), -5.9 (corn), -6.0 (soybean)
International copper prices fell as China’s imports of refined cooper decreased to a 17 month low of 251,000 tons in July. International aluminum prices rose as the supply shortage widened from a shortage of 331,000 tons in the previous year to a shortage of 479,000 tons in the first half of this year. Nonferrous metal price increases in August (monthly average, m-o-m, %) -2.1 (copper), 0.7 (aluminum), 0.7 (nickel), 3.4 (tin), 0.3 (lead)
International commodity prices
Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * C RB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 470
4000
430 390
3000
350 310
2000
270 230
1000
190 150 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
CRB (left)
0
2016.1
Reuters Index (right)
(Period average)
2014 Annual Annual 1
Reuters Index (Sep 18,1931=100)
2016
2015 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2,523 2,328 2,368 2,394 2,287 2,269 2,115 2,250 2,161 2,222 2,361 2,374 2,444
1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
September 2016
37
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market
Housing prices nationwide rose 0.07 percent month-on-month in August. Housing prices rose 0.16 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, which includes Seoul (up 0.3%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.1%) and Incheon (up 0.1%).
Housing sales prices by region
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
3 (m-o-m, %)
2
1
0
-1
2009.1
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
Nationwide
7
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2016.1
7
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Housing sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2015
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1.9
6.9
0.0
0.3
1.7
2016
Jul
Aug Annual May
Jun
Jul
Aug
3.5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.07
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Nationwide
2015.1
Seoul metropolitan area
-1.7
0.5
-3.0
-1.1
1.5
4.4
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.09
0.15
0.14
0.16
Seoul
-1.2
0.3
-2.9
-1.4
1.1
4.6
0.4
0.4
1.0
0.15
0.22
0.23
0.26
Gangnamš
-1.0
0.3
-3.5
-1.1
1.2
5.2
0.4
0.4
1.2
0.20
0.31
0.29
0.30
Gangbuk²
-1.4
0.3
-2.3
-1.7
1.1
3.9
0.3
0.4
0.8
0.09
0.13
0.17
0.21
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
6.4
15.1
3.1
1.7
1.9
2.7
0.2
0.2
-0.1
-0.02 -0.05 -0.04 -0.01
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
2. Northern Seoul
Housing prices fell 0.01 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, as they increased in the five metropolitan cities (up 0.1%) and fell in the eight provinces (down 0.1%).
38
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Housing price increases in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.4), Daegu (-0.2), Gwangju (-0.1), Daejeon (0.0), Ulsan (-0.1)
Housing rental prices nationwide rose 0.1 percent month-on-month in August. Rental prices increased 0.2 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and stayed stable in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Housing rental price increases in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Seocho (-0.2), Songpa (-0.1), Gangdong (-0.3), Mapo (0.4), Yangcheon (0.3)
Housing rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3 (m-o-m, %)
2
1
0
-1
-2
2009.1
7
2010.1
7
2001.1
7
Nationwide
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
7
2015.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2016.1
7
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Housing rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2015
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2016
Jul
Aug Annual May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Nationwide
7.1
12.3
3.5
4.7
3.4
4.8
0.3
0.3
0.9
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Seoul metropolitan area
6.3
11.0
2.1
6.2
4.7
7.1
0.5
0.4
1.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Seoul
6.4
10.8
2.1
6.6
3.6
7.2
0.5
0.5
1.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
Gangnamš
7.6
11.1
2.4
6.7
3.3
7.9
0.6
0.4
1.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
Gangbuk²
5.1
10.6
1.8
6.4
3.8
6.5
0.5
0.5
1.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
9.2
14.5
4.6
3.3
2.2
2.8
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
2. Northern Seoul
There were 95,578 housing transactions in July, a 3.2 percent increase from a month earlier and a 13.6 percent decrease from a year ago (110,675).
September 2016
39
Monthly housing transactions
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
160 (thousands) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
7
Nationwide
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2015.1
7
2016.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Housing sales transactions 2011
2012
2013
(Thousands)
2014
Nationwide
82
1
61
1
71
2016
2015
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual 1
7
1
84
1
99
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 111
94
86
106
98
88
62
59
78
86
89
93
96
1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
12.2 Land market
Land prices nationwide rose 0.24 percent month-on-month in July. Land prices increased 0.25 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Seoul (up 0.28%) and Incheon (up 0.18%). Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.13 (Jan 2016) → 0.14 (Feb) → 0.18 (Mar) → 0.20 (Apr) → 0.21 (May) → 0.24 (Jun) → 0.25 (Jul)
Land prices rose 0.24 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Busan (up 0.34%), Jeju (up 0.39%) and North Chungcheong Province (up 0.17%). Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.24 (Jan 2016) → 0.22 (Feb) → 0.27 (Mar) → 0.24 (Apr) → 0.24 (May) → 0.25 (Jun) → 0.24 (Jul)
40
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Land prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2014
2016 May
Jun
Jul
Nationwide
1.05
1.17
0.96
1.14
1.96
2.40
0.59
0.60
0.72
1.49
0.56
0.68
0.22
0.25
0.24
Seoul
0.53
0.97
0.38
1.21
2.66
2.69
0.69
0.69
0.72
1.62
0.57
0.76
0.26
0.28
0.28
Gyeonggi
1.49
1.47
1.04
0.91
1.24
1.73
0.41
0.43
0.52
1.17
0.37
0.58
0.18
0.22
0.22
Incheon
1.43
0.66
0.46
0.87
1.35
1.95
0.53
0.54
0.50
1.00
0.34
0.48
0.12
0.16
0.18
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
There were 258,000 land transactions in July, down 1.7 percent from the previous month and 11.1 percent from a year ago (290,000). Land transactions nationwide decreased month-on-month, led by Busan (down 12.4%), Ulsan (down 28.7%) and Daegu (down 21.5%), despite increases in Seoul (up 9.1%), Incheon (up 10.1%) and Sejong (up 47.8%). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 36.0 percent of total land transactions, recorded 93,000, down 4.4 percent month-on-month and 10.4 percent compared with a year ago (103,000).
Land transactions
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
500,000 (thousand m²)
450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seoul metropolitan area
2015.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Land transactions 2010
2011
2016.1
(Land lots, thousands)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Nationwide 187
208
170
187
220
257
290 241 229 263 259 274 207 191 248 245 253 262 258
Seoul
16
18
13
17
22
30
36
29
27
31
29
28
21
20
26
28
31
34
37
Gyeonggi
41
43
33
37
46
58
62
56
58
63
61
62
48
44
56
57
59
65
69
Incheon
8
10
8
8
10
12
15
13
12
14
13
12
8
8
10
12
13
13
15
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
September 2016
41
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
Industrial output in July decreased 0.1 percent month-on-month and increased 3.2 percent year-on-year. Output rose month-on-month in mining & manufacturing (up 1.4%) and construction (up 1.3%), while fell in services (down 0.7%) and public administration (down 3.0%).
Index of all industry production 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Index of all industry production (m-o-m)
2015.1
2016.1
Index of all industry production (y-o-y)
2015 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May1
Jun1
Jul1
1.5 2.8
-1.4 1.7
0.7 2.5
0.7 2.4
-0.7 0.8
2.0 5.0
0.6 4.8
-0.1 3.2
Coincident composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)
119.4 0.3
119.3 -0.1
119.4 0.1
119.5 0.1
119.8 0.3
120.4 0.5
121.0 0.5
121.8 0.7
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p)
100.6 -0.1
100.3 -0.3
100.2 -0.1
100.0 -0.2
100.0 0.0
100.2 0.2
100.5 0.3
100.9 0.4
Leading composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)
123.2 0.2
123.4 0.2
123.5 0.1
123.9 0.3
124.5 0.5
124.9 0.3
125.2 0.2
125.8 0.5
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p)
100.8 -0.1
100.5 -0.3
100.3 -0.2
100.3 0.0
100.4 0.1
100.4 0.0
100.3 -0.1
100.4 0.1
Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)
2016
1. Preliminary
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.4 points month-on-month to 100.9. Six components of the coincident composite index, such as the value of construction completed, mining & manufacturing production, imports and domestic shipments, increased, while retail sales decreased.
42
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Components of the coincident composite index in July (m-o-m) value of construction completed (3.3%), mining & manufacturing production (1.2%), imports (1.1%), domestic shipments (0.6%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.4%), service output (0.3%), retail sales (-0.2%)
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
110 (points)
100
90
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.1 points month-on-month to 100.4. Five components of the leading composite index, including the value of construction orders received, the inventory circulation indicator and the ratio of job openings to job seekers, were up, while three others, such as the consumer expectations index, the ratio of export to import prices and spreads between long & short term interest rates, were down. Components of the leading composite index in July (m-o-m) value of construction orders received (8.5%), inventory circulation indicator (1.6%p), ratio of job openings to job seekers (1.4%p), domestic shipments of machinery (0.3%), KOSPI (0.1%), consumer expectations index (-0.7p), ratio of export to import prices (-0.4%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (0.02%p)
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
110 (points)
100
90
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
September 2016
43
Policy Issue
2017 budget proposal
2017 Budget Proposal 2017 Budget to Focus on Creating Jobs and Boosting Economy
The 2017 budget proposal promotes both expansionary policies and mid-term fiscal soundness. Total expenditures will be increased by 14.3 trillion won, or 3.7 percent, compared with the 2016 budget, and fiscal balance and national debt will improve compared with the 2015-2019 fiscal management plan. A total of 400.7 trillion won will be spent to successfully deal with economic and social changes and internal and external risks, improve people’s livelihoods, increase birth rates, and enhance national security. The 2016-2020 fiscal management plan is drawn up to bolster up growth and job creation, as well as to ensure fiscal soundness.
I. 2017 budget proposal 1. Key policies - Successfully deal with risks arising from internal and external uncertainties, and prepare for mid- to longterm changes, in particular demographic changes and industrial restructuring - Help the economy add jobs and maintain growth momentum: The government will work to make its job creation investment most efficient, while helping exporters and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) increase competitiveness, promoting local economies and supporting the development of future growth engines. - Improve people’s livelihoods and ensure national security: The government will strengthen support to raise birth rates and expand the welfare system tailored to specific needs, while working to make the society more secure. - Work to ensure fiscal sustainability: The government will increase budget spending efficiency by restructuring the current discretionary spending system and by getting rid of wasteful spending on overlapping or similar projects. - Adopt national expenditure rules and require the public sector to draw up their own plans to improve financial soundness1
1. T he legislation of the act to require the public sector to work on improving fiscal soundness was announced in August 2016.
September 2016
45
2. Key features (Total revenues) The government revenues are projected to increase 6.0 percent compared with the previous year, backed by recovering consumption and lively asset markets. (Total expenditures) The total government expenditures will rise 3.7 percent from the previous year, the level at which the country can support economic recovery and job creation while maintaining fiscal soundness. (trillion won)
2016 budget (A)
2017 budget proposal (B)
Total government revenues
391.2
414.5
- Tax revenue
222.9
Total government expenditures
386.4
Change (B-A)
%
23.3 18.8
6.0
241.8 400.7
14.3
3.7
8.4
(Fiscal balance) Deficits in the consolidated fiscal balance will improve by 0.3 percentage points compared with the 2015-2019 fiscal management plan, from 2.0 percent to GDP to 1.7 percent. (Government debt) Government debt is expected to decline by 0.6 percentage points compared with the 2015-2019 fiscal management plan, from 41.0 percent to GDP to 40.4 percent, as debt repayment will be made with increases in tax revenues and government budget surpluses. (trillion won)
2016 budget (A)
2017 2015-2019 plan
Budget proposal (B)
Change (B-A)
Consolidated fiscal balance
-36.9
8.8
(-2.3)¹
-33.1 (-2.0)
-28.0
(% to GDP)
(-1.7)
(-0.3%p)
Government debt
644.9
692.9
682.7
37.8
(% to GDP)
(40.1)²
(41.0)
(40.4)
(-0.6%p)
1. -2.4 percent to GDP according to the supplementary budget 2. 39.3 percent to GDP according to the supplementary budget
Tax expenditures Tax expenditures have continued to decline for the last three years, and are projected to decline in 2016 and 2017 as the tax expenditures ratio2 is estimated to decrease to below 14 percent3, the ceiling calculated according to the National Fiscal Act4. Tax expenditures are expected to reach 36.5 trillion won and 37.0 trillion won, respectively, in 2016 and 2017. 2. The ratio of total tax expenditures to (total tax revenues + total tax expenditures) 3. Tax expenditures ratios: 14.3 (2013) → 14.3 (2014) → 14.1 (2015) → 13.6* (2016) → 13.3* (2017) * estimates 4. Average tax expenditures ratio for the last three years + 0.5%p
46
Policy Issue
Budgets by area Social expenditures in 2017 will focus on raising birthrates and improving people’s livelihoods, while industrial expenditures will focus on developing future growth engines and implementing performancebased spending to increase efficiency.
Budgets by area
Total expenditures 1. Health, welfare, employment 2. Education - Grant to local education governments 3. Culture, sports, tourism 4. Environment
(trillion won)
Change
2016 budget (A)
2017 budget proposal (B)
(B-A)
%
386.4
400.7
14.3
3.7
123.4
130.0
6.6
5.3
53.2
56.4
3.3
6.1
41.2
45.9
4.7
11.4
6.6
7.1
0.5
6.9
6.9
6.9
0.0
0.1
5. R&D
19.1
19.4
0.3
1.8
6. Industry, SME, energy
16.3
15.9
-0.3
-2.0
7. SOC
23.7
21.8
-1.9
-8.2
8. Agriculture, forestry, fishery, food
19.4
19.5
0.1
0.6
9. National defense
38.8
40.3
1.5
4.0
10. Diplomacy, reunification
4.7
4.6
-0.1
-1.5
11. Social order, safety
17.5
18.0
0.5
3.1
12. Public administration, local governments - Grant to local government
59.5 36.1
63.9 40.6
4.4 4.5
7.4 12.5
3. Budget proposal by initiative Creating jobs for the future generation 1) Increase investment in job creation while enhancing spending efficiency - Increase job creation budgets by 10.7 percent from 15.8 trillion won to 17.5 trillion won, while maximizing spending efficiency through performance-based budgeting, for which the government will refer to Korea Development Institute’s (KDI) assessment of the current job creation projects 2) Create jobs for young adults - Promote job creation in industries favored by young adults, such as game, VR and technology convergence in IoT5 - Launch a startup package worth 50 billion won as well as university startup funds worth 15 billion won, while increasing the number of universities providing startup programs from 34 to 40, to encourage young adults to establish their own businesses
5. B udget increases (billion won): Game (45.1 → 63.5), VR (19.2, newly allocated), IoT (12.0 → 27.6)
September 2016
47
- Newly provide support for university education programs designed to meet demand from industries, worth 96.8 billion won, while increasing the number of companies with work-study programs from 6,300 to 10,000 3) Increase employment support tailored to women and the elderly - Increase employment support given to companies for retaining female employees returning from maternity leave from 200,000 won per employee to 300,000 won, and increase support for substitute jobs that fill maternity leaves from 7,000 jobs to 10,000 - Work with companies to increase jobs for the elderly by 50,000 4) Strengthen public employment services - Increase the number of government employment centers from 70 to 100, and build an employment portal
Developing new growth engines 1) Increase investment in developing new growth engines - Launch nine R&D projects, worth 30 billion won, which require government-wide cooperation and are critical to further developing the nation’s core technologies - Invest in region-specific industries, a total of 3.1 trillion won in 2017-2019, in order to foster new and high value added industries - Increase the number of smart factories from 1,245 to 1,750, and expand high-risk investment in pharmaceutical R&Ds from 215.4 billion won to 247.1 billion won - Strengthen support for clean energy development, including fuel cells, from 453.6 billion won to 584.4 billion won, as well as support for the development of the agricultural and fishery industries into a high value added one, the 6th industrialization 2) Foster culture - Build infrastructure to promote Korean culture, such as a large culture park and an arena for K-pop performances - Promote the creation of cultural contents, in particular operas or ballets that use Korean stories - Develop packaged tours to promote local tourism
Increasing competitiveness of SMEs, startups and local economies 1) Foster exporters - Newly invest 12 billion won in order to find exporters with excellent potential for exploring new markets - Newly invest 9.2 trillion won to help diversify export markets for agricultural products 2) Support SMEs and small merchants - Expand investment in the Tech Incubator Program for Startups from 56 billion won to 77 billion won - Launch new R&D projects to help globally renowned Korean medium-sized enterprises, and expand World Class 300, a project to grow SMEs and medium-sized leading enterprises to be global players, from 85.3 billion won to 113.7 billion won
48
Policy Issue
- Expand financial support for small merchants, such as through guarantees and loans 3) Boost local economies - Increase SOC investments and refurbish fresh water infrastructure - Increase education grants to local governments
Raising birthrates and strengthening the welfare programs tailored to specific needs 1) Raise birthrates - Increase affordable housing for the newly married and young adults - Abolish income ceilings for fertility treatment support and increase the amount of the support for low income families - Strengthen daycare support for working couples: Expand support for all day daycare to kids younger than two years, and increase support for opening daycare centers at SME work places - Increase childcare support for single parents, and expand the coverage of the support to children younger than 15 years by 2019 2) Strengthen tailored welfare programs - Kids, students: Invest to prevent child-abuse and expand educational opportunities, job training and consultation, extend the third-child-and-onwards education support to fourth graders, and increase the work and study scholarship given to university students - Middle aged: Increase the supply of rental housing affordable to low income families and continue to ease the burden of medical costs not covered by the national health insurance system - Elderly: Increase the number of basic old age pension recipients from 4.80 million to 4.98 million, while expanding senior care service recipients by 7,000 - Veterans: Increase veterans allowance and construct more veteran sanatoriums
Enhancing national defense capabilities and improving public safety 1) Enhance national defense capabilities and improve the welfare of armed forces - Invest to enhance military capabilities: Support the establishment of Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) and the development of Korean fighter planes - Invest to improve the welfare of armed forces: Soldiers to be paid 195,000 won a month in 2017, an increase from 98,000 in 2012, while budgets are increased for better meals and improved living conditions 2) Improve public safety and quality of life - Build up a system for transmitting images real-time, increase safety patrols, and replace old vehicles used for public safety purposes - Increase investment from 82.4 billion won to 180.2 billion won to ensure that public facilities are earthquake proof - Help reduce fine dust by increasing electric car subsidies, from 8,000 cars to 15,000 cars, hybrid car subsidies, from 33,000 cars to 60,000 cars, and subsidies for declaring gasoline vehicles out of use, from 38,000 cars to 60,000 cars, as well as by improving the air quality observation system
September 2016
49
Improving spending efficiency 1) Lower discretionary spending - Have ministries to voluntarily reduce their discretionary spending by about 10 percent in order to prepare for the future, including low birth and an aged society - Resources saved by the discretionary spending cut to be invested in creating jobs, developing future growth engines and operating new projects 2) Merge overlapping and similar projects - A total of 689 projects have been merged, exceeding the target in the 3 Year Plan for Economic Innovation (600) - Additionally merge 205 projects in 2017, which are under initiatives such as multicultural family support, university R&D support, SME support and job creation 3) Thoroughly evaluate fiscal programs - Require new support programs, if they are worth more than 10 billion won, to go through a screening process, while requiring existing programs, if they last for more than for three years, to go through evaluation for extension - Restructure underperforming fiscal programs
II. 2016-2020 national fiscal management plan 1. Key policies Fiscal resources management will be focused on growth and jobs in order to prepare for demographic changes, rising welfare spending and industrial restructuring. - Prepare for structural changes in the economy due to demographic changes, the 4th industrial revolution and restructuring - Restructure spending and reinvest saved resources in developing future growth engines - Promote job creation by encouraging investment, and reform employment support to better reflect demand Mid- to long-term fiscal soundness will be improved for the country to be well prepared for future fiscal risks. - Enact a Fiscal Soundness Act to require all public entities to work on improving fiscal soundness - Establish rules which regulate government debt and fiscal balance to effectively manage fiscal resources - Pursue financial soundness in social insurance programs by integrating systems that estimate the financial balance of social insurance programs The government will continue to improve spending efficiency. - Increase local government spending efficiency and their responsibility for fiscal soundness
50
Policy Issue
- Avoid wasteful spending by carrying out thorough screening and comprehensive assessment, as well as by establishing an integrated system to efficiently manage government support programs - Restructure public institutions: Adjust overlapping or similar functions between public firms and open their markets to the private sector in line with changes in the economy and social demand, while continuing to improve the management efficiency of public institutions
2. Mid-term fiscal outlook and fiscal management goals - Total government revenues are projected to increase at an average of 5.0 percent every year in 2016-2020. - Total government expenditures will be managed to increase at an average of 3.5 percent every year in 2016-2020. Mid-term outlook for government revenues and expenditures
(trillion won)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Annual growth (%)
Total government revenues
391.2
414.5
436.0
456.3
476.4
5.0
- Tax revenues
222.9
241.8
252.1
264.5
277.2
5.6
Total government expenditures
386.4
400.7
414.3
428.4
443.0
3.5
(growth, %)
(2.9)
(3.7)
(3.4)
(3.4)
(3.4)
-
- The consolidated fiscal balance minus social security funds will gradually improve in 2016-2020. - Government debt will be managed at around 40 percent to GDP. Mid-term outlook for fiscal balance and government debt Consolidate fiscal balance minus social security
(trillion won)
20161
2017
2018
2019
2020
-39.1
-28.1
-25.0
-23.2
-20.4
(% to GDP)
(-2.4)
(-1.7)
(-1.4)
(-1.2)
(-1.0)
Government debt
637.8
682.7
722.5
756.8
793.5
(% to GDP)
(39.3)
(40.4)
(40.9)
(40.7)
(40.7)
1. The 2016 figures involve the supplementary budget
3. Managing Korea’s fiscal position 1) Enact laws to improve fiscal soundness - Adopt laws to found a basis for improving fiscal soundness, such as rules regulating the management of government debt and consolidated fiscal balance minus social security funds - Found a legal basis to require public sector entities, including local governments, to draw up plans for improving fiscal soundness - Set up rules regulating how to estimate a long-term fiscal outlook, including rules concerning procedures, methods and terms
September 2016
51
2) Increase spending efficiency - Carefully examine the effect of fiscal projects before launching, thoroughly assess the performance of projects, and decide on the extension of support programs based on detailed assessment of spending efficiency - Continue to work on merging overlapping or similar projects, and assess the outcomes of the mergers - Encourage the private sector to participate in public infrastructure projects by reducing risks taken by the private sector 3) Ensure revenue increase - Reform tax reductions and exemptions that are evaluated to be no longer effective, while making tax breaks be limited to those aimed at promoting job creation, boosting the economy and supporting working classes, if they are approved through a screening process - Broaden the tax base: Avoid tax fraud by tightly regulating the issuance of cash payment receipts and the imposing of VAT on buyers, work on broadening the capital gains tax base and revising VAT exemption 4) Strengthen fiscal management - Improve the management of the seven social insurance programs: Run a Policy Committee on the 7 Social Insurance Programs to increase the financial soundness of the programs and regularly examine their management efficiency - Continue to work on the restructuring of public institutions, focusing on boosting productivity: Plans to restructure public institutions in the areas of healthcare, policy financing and industrial development will be prepared by the first half of 2017. - Avoid benefit fraud by building an integrated information system to efficiently manage treasury grantsin-aid - Carry out a comprehensive assessment of fiscal projects, instead of assessing by sector, such as an assessment of the general account, R&D projects and regional projects, and reflect the outcome in the budget 2016-2020 budget allocation plans by area Total expenditures (growth, %) Health, welfare, employment Education Culture, sports, tourism Environment R&D Industry, SME, energy SOC Agriculture, forestry, fishery, food National defense Diplomacy, reunification Social order, safety Public administration, local governments
52
Policy Issue
(trillion won)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Annual growth (%)
386.4 (2.9) 123.4 53.2 6.6 6.9 19.1 16.3 23.7 19.4 38.8 4.7 17.5
400.7 (3.7) 130.0 56.4 7.1 6.9 19.4 15.9 21.8 19.5 40.3 4.6 18.0
414.3 (3.4) 135.8 58.8 8.1 6.8 19.7 15.7 20.3 19.4 41.8 4.7 18.7
428.4 (3.4) 141.6 61.0 8.4 6.7 19.9 15.4 19.3 19.3 43.2 4.9 19.4
443.0 (3.4) 147.7 63.4 8.6 6.7 20.2 15.2 18.5 19.3 44.7 5.0 20.1
3.5 4.6 4.5 6.8 -0.6 1.5 -1.7 -6.0 -0.2 3.6 1.7 3.5
59.5
63.9
66.9
69.6
73.5
5.4
Economic News Briefing
Government discusses impact of Hanjin Shipping’s filing for court receivership and subsequent measures Korea Sales Festa starts September 29 Korea launches an open platform for fintech Regulations on free economic zones to be eased External debt rises to US $391.8 bn in Q2 Korea grows 0.8% in Q2 (preliminary)
Government discusses impact of Hanjin Shipping’s filing for court receivership and subsequent measures The 4th Ministerial Meeting on Industrial Restructuring was held on September 7, where ways to absorb shocks following Hanjin Shipping’s filing for court receivership was the main topic of discussion. Deputy Prime Minister Yoo Il Ho emphasized close cooperation between the government and private entities involved in the Hanjin Shipping restructuring and showed firm determination to upgrade the country’s shipping sector by successfully restructuring the industry. The Deputy Prime Minister stated that the government will launch support programs for those affected by the bankruptcy. The government will provide emergency financial support for SME exporters, give companies support for retaining employees in order to prevent large-scale layoffs in the affected industries, and run programs for those losing jobs, which cover payment of delayed wages and reemployment programs. Deputy Prime Minister Yoo requested that all the parties involved, such as Hanjin Shipping and its parent company, creditors and shippers, be more cooperative in order to successfully ride out the hardship that the shipping industry is currently facing.
Korea Sales Festa starts September 29 Korea Sales Festa was announced at the 14th Ministerial Meeting on the Economy on September 21. Korea Sales Festa, a sales event equivalent to last year’s Korean Black Friday, kicks off on September 29. The annual sales event will be expanded this year to include major manufacturers, social commerce companies and online shopping malls, in addition to wholesale and retail distributors. The government will actively promote Korea Sales Festa and help attract foreign tourists to the event. Foreign visitors will be offered special discount rates on accomodations and transportation during the whole month of October.
Korea launches an open platform for fintech The Financial Services Commission (FSC) launched on August 30 an open platform for fintech developers, the first of its kind in the world. The fintech open platform will significantly reduce the time needed to develop fintech applications. Fintech firms had to sign different contracts with different commercial banks in order to develop online banking services, since the programs used in different banks were incompatible. The open platform will make it possible for fintech firms to develop highly compatible applications by simply downloading open source software.
54
Economic News Briefing
Regulations on free economic zones to be eased The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced on August 29 measures to promote the eight free economic zones (FEZs). The eight FEZs will expand their support to local firms, new industries, foreign medical institutions and foreign colleges, in addition to some major industries the government designated and foreign-invested enterprises. The new measures include support for promoting 27 region-specific industries, including marine tourism, new energy technology and bio-based materials, as well as developing 11 new industries, including future cars, robots and next generation software and online security. Foreign vocational colleges and medical institutions will find it easier to open branches in the FEZs due to eased regulations. On top of that, foreign-invested companies will be able to make 50 year land lease contracts for industrial use, while Korean companies will be allowed to build production facilities in FEZs located in the Seoul metropolitan area.
External debt rises to US $391.8 bn in Q2 Korea’s external debt amounted to US $391.8 billion as of the end of June 2016, an increase of US $2.5 billion from the previous quarter. Short-term debt increased US $2.7 billion quarter-on-quarter to US $106.8 billion, as borrowings by banks rose even though foreigners’ bond investment decreased. Long-term debt was down US $0.2 billion to US $285.0 billion, led by a decrease in foreigners’ investment in Korean bonds. (US $ billion)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Change
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec (A)
Mar (B)
Jun (C)
(C-B)
(C-A)
Total debt
408.9
423.5
424.4
395.4
389.3
391.8
2.5
-3.6
Short-term
128.0
111.8
116.4
107.1
104.1
106.8
2.7
-0.4
Long-term
281.0
311.7
308.0
288.3
285.2
285.0
-0.2
-3.3
External debt soundness indicators remain stable, as the ratio of short-term external debt to total external debt stayed low at 27.3 percent and the ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves remained low relative to previous quarters at 28.9 percent, although both indicators slightly rose quarteron-quarter, up 0.5 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively. Solvency improved as net foreign assets in debt instruments (total external assets in debt instruments minus total external debt) increased by US $16.3 billion to a record high of US $357.8 billion.
September 2016
55
Korea grows 0.8% in Q2 (preliminary) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2016, according to preliminary data released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) on September 2. Both the quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year figures were revised up 0.1 percentage points from the advanced estimates that were released on July 26. On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fisheries contracted 6.6 percent in the second quarter of 2016 compared to the previous quarter. Manufacturing grew 1.2 percent, led by petroleum & coal and chemical products, while construction grew 1.0 percent, led by residential housing construction. Services were up 0.6 percent, as gains in wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, cultural & sports services and other services offset declines in transportation services and real estate & renting. On the expenditure side, private consumption rose 1.0 percent due to increasing sales of durable goods such as automobiles, while facility investment grew 2.8 percent due to strong transportation equipment investment. Construction investment was up 3.1 percent, led by building construction, and intellectual property investment rose 1.5 percent, led by software investment. Exports rose 1.1 percent, led by semiconductors, petroleum and chemical products, while imports rose 2.1 percent, led by crude oil and automobiles. GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period) 1
2014
20161
2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
GDP
1.1 (3.9)2
0.6 (3.5)2
0.7 (3.4)2
0.3 (2.7)2
0.8 (2.4)2
0.4 (2.2)2
1.2 (2.8)2
0.7 (3.1)2
0.5 (2.8)2
0.8 (3.3)2
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-1.6
-0.4
1.6
1.7
3.7
-11.0
4.7
-2.6
6.5
-6.6
Manufacturing
1.8
1.0
-0.7
-0.2
0.4
0.9
0.4
0.7
-0.2
1.2
Construction
1.9
0.1
-0.2
-2.1
1.8
-0.1
5.5
0.7
4.8
1.0
Services3
0.9
0.4
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.2
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.6
Private consumption
0.4
-0.3
0.7
0.3
0.8
-0.1
1.1
1.4
-0.2
1.0
Government consumption
0.5
0.8
1.9
0.1
0.5
0.9
1.3
1.0
1.3
0.1
Facility investment
-1.1
1.3
0.3
3.5
0.5
0.8
1.8
0.5
-7.4
2.8
Construction investment
3.3
1.1
-0.8
-4.9
5.5
1.8
3.3
-2.4
6.8
3.1
Intellectual property investment
2.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
1.7
-0.6
0.3
0.7
0.3
1.5
Exports
0.8
1.1
-1.5
0.3
0.6
-0.1
-0.3
2.1
-1.1
1.1
Imports
-1.6
0.8
-0.1
0.4
0.9
0.4
1.4
3.2
-3.1
2.1
*At 2010 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year (original data) 3. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.
56
Economic News Briefing
Statistical Appendices
01. National accounts 02. Production, shipment and inventory 03. Production capacity and operation ratio 04. Consumer goods sales index 05. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 06. Machinery orders received and facility investment index 07. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 08. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 09. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
1. National accounts Period
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
Final consumption expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation Construction
Facilities
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p
0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3 2.6
3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 3.1 3.6 -1.5
-0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.6 3.5 1.3
1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4
0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 3.3 3.4 3.8
3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 5.5 1.1 3.9
-7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -0.8 6.0 5.3
2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6
7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4
8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3
4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4
1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0
-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3
7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0
2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4
-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5
-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8
1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1
-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5
2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
7.3 7.4 5.4 6.0
0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7
16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9
6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4
12.0 6.8 3.8 1.3
1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.1
27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.9 3.6 3.3 3.0
-9.3 -2.5 -5.8 7.1
11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4
3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7
-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3
-8.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0
8.3 8.3 3.4 -0.9
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.5 2.4 2.1 2.2
0.1 -1.8 0.0 -1.3
2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0
2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7
6.2 -2.3 -0.9 -3.6
-0.2 -5.3 -2.6 -6.4
11.0 -1.9 -4.2 -3.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.1 2.7 3.2 3.5
-1.2 0.1 4.3 7.0
2.7 3.6 3.8 4.2
1.5 2.2 2.4 2.6
-3.2 4.2 4.9 6.5
1.2 8.9 7.5 3.5
-12.3 -3.2 2.3 11.7
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
3.9 3.5 3.4 2.7
5.9 4.5 2.7 2.4
4.7 4.7 3.1 1.8
2.9 1.8 2.0 1.6
6.1 3.6 3.6 0.8
4.5 0.3 2.3 -1.7
7.4 7.9 4.4 4.4
2015pⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.4 2.2 2.8 3.1
7.5 -4.0 -0.8 -5.0
0.6 0.5 1.5 2.4
1.9 2.1 2.4 3.4
2.6 2.2 5.1 5.4
0.9 1.0 5.6 7.5
5.8 5.1 6.7 3.9
2016pⅠ Ⅱ
2.8 3.3
-2.4 1.5
1.9 2.2
2.7 3.4
3.0 5.3
9.6 10.8
-4.5 -2.7
p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
58
(year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)
Real GDP
Statistical Appendices
2. Production, shipment and inventory Period
Production index*
Shipment index*
y-o-y change (%)
Inventory index*
y-o-y change (%)
(constant prices, 2010=100)
Service production index
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2013 2014 2015
108.2 108.4 107.7
0.7 0.2 -0.6
108.1 108.0 107.8
0.8 -0.1 -0.2
130.7 127.4 131.2
4.4 -2.5 3.0
106.4 108.9 112.0
1.5 2.3 2.8
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.9 109.8 105.6 111.3
0.8 0.5 1.2 -1.5
106.6 109.3 104.9 111.3
0.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.8
129.6 128.2 129.0 127.4
5.3 7.6 3.6 -2.5
105.4 108.6 108.5 113.1
2.1 1.7 2.7 2.8
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
105.7 108.4 105.5 111.2
-1.1 -1.3 -0.1 -0.1
106.0 108.1 105.8 111.2
-0.6 -1.1 0.9 -0.1
132.2 134.0 137.7 131.2
2.0 4.5 6.7 3.0
108.2 111.5 111.6 116.8
2.7 2.7 2.9 3.3
2016 Ⅰ Ⅱp
105.5 109.5
-0.2 1.0
105.2 109.5
-0.8 1.3
136.1 131.1
3.0 -2.2
111.2 115.6
2.8 3.7
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.5 101.2 113.0 112.3 108.5 108.6 112.5 101.2 103.2 110.1 108.7 115.0
-4.2 4.0 3.1 2.6 -1.9 0.7 4.2 -2.6 2.1 -2.8 -3.1 1.4
105.4 101.4 113.1 111.1 108.7 108.1 109.6 101.7 103.4 109.4 109.5 115.1
-4.2 3.3 2.6 1.6 -1.5 -0.5 2.3 -3.1 2.0 -2.8 -1.7 2.2
131.6 128.8 129.6 130.7 129.6 128.2 132.6 129.9 129.0 130.0 129.2 127.4
2.3 3.4 5.3 8.3 6.5 7.6 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.9 0.1 -2.5
104.8 101.9 109.6 107.1 109.0 109.8 108.9 108.1 108.5 110.8 109.9 118.7
2.3 1.4 2.7 1.4 1.2 2.6 3.1 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.3 3.5
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.1 96.0 113.1 109.8 105.2 110.3 108.7 101.4 106.3 112.4 108.5 112.6
1.5 -5.1 0.1 -2.2 -3.0 1.6 -3.4 0.2 3.0 2.1 -0.2 -2.1
108.1 96.6 113.2 109.6 105.4 109.2 107.5 102.1 107.7 112.6 108.4 112.7
2.6 -4.7 0.1 -1.4 -3.0 1.0 -1.9 0.4 4.2 2.9 -1.0 -2.1
131.3 131.9 132.2 133.7 133.0 134.0 137.1 136.8 137.7 136.1 136.2 131.2
-0.2 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.6 4.5 3.4 5.3 6.7 4.7 5.4 3.0
106.9 104.7 113.0 111.7 111.5 111.4 111.7 110.6 112.6 114.1 113.2 123.1
2.0 2.7 3.1 4.3 2.3 1.5 2.6 2.3 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.7
2016 1 2 3 4 5 6p 7p
105.7 98.2 112.5 107.1 110.1 111.2 110.4
-2.2 2.3 -0.5 -2.5 4.7 0.8 1.6
103.9 97.5 114.2 108.0 109.5 111.0 108.4
-3.9 0.9 0.9 -1.5 3.9 1.6 0.8
136.9 136.6 136.1 132.4 133.5 131.1 133.4
4.3 3.6 3.0 -1.0 0.4 -2.2 -2.7
110.1 107.6 115.8 113.9 115.6 117.4 114.7
3.0 2.8 2.5 2.0 3.7 5.4 2.7
* Including mining, manufacturing, electricity & gas and water industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
September 2016
59
3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period
Production capacity index* (2010=100) y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Average operation ratio* (%)
2013 2014 2015
108.6 110.4 111.7
1.6 1.7 1.2
95.1 94.3 92.1
-2.5 -0.8 -2.3
76.5 76.2 74.3
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
109.7 109.9 110.7 111.2
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7
92.9 96.8 91.5 95.8
-0.9 -1.1 0.8 -2.5
77.2 76.3 75.9 75.2
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
111.5 111.6 111.7 112.0
1.6 1.5 0.9 0.7
90.0 94.9 89.8 93.8
-3.1 -2.0 -1.9 -2.1
74.3 74.3 74.9 73.6
2016 Ⅰ Ⅱp
112.0 112.0
0.4 0.4
88.6 92.1
-1.6 -3.0
73.2 72.2
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.8 109.6 109.7 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.7 111.0 111.1 111.1 111.3
1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6
91.9 87.6 99.1 99.7 95.6 95.1 98.7 86.8 89.0 95.9 94.0 97.6
-7.1 3.2 2.0 1.8 -3.8 -1.2 4.3 -4.3 2.3 -3.8 -4.3 0.7
77.9 76.1 77.7 77.5 75.1 76.3 77.7 74.8 75.1 74.2 74.8 76.7
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.5 111.3 111.8 111.5 111.6 111.7 111.5 111.5 112.1 112.1 112.0 111.9
1.5 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5
92.8 81.0 96.3 95.8 91.8 97.1 94.7 86.0 88.8 95.4 91.8 94.2
1.0 -7.5 -2.8 -3.9 -4.0 2.1 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.5 -2.3 -3.5
73.9 74.7 74.2 74.4 73.5 75.0 74.4 75.4 74.9 74.0 73.1 73.8
2016 1 2 3 4 5 6p 7p
111.8 111.9 112.2 112.1 112.0 111.9 112.0
0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4
89.0 81.2 95.6 90.1 92.8 93.3 92.2
-4.1 0.2 -0.7 -5.9 1.1 -3.9 -2.6
72.3 73.5 73.8 71.3 73.1 72.2 73.8
* Manufacturing industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
60
Operation ratio index* (2010=100)
Statistical Appendices
4. Consumer goods sales index
(constant prices, 2010=100)
Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods
Period
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Nondurable goods
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2013 2014 2015
107.9 110.1 114.4
0.7 2.0 3.9
116.7 122.7 135.2
0.3 5.1 10.2
106.1 105.3 104.0
2.1 -0.8 -1.2
104.7 106.4 109.1
0.4 1.6 2.5
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.5 109.0 109.3 115.7
2.6 1.2 2.0 2.4
117.4 121.2 123.4 128.6
5.7 2.3 5.5 6.9
100.1 104.6 96.0 120.5
-2.0 -2.5 1.2 0.5
104.3 105.2 108.6 107.5
3.1 2.2 0.6 0.8
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
108.8 112.7 113.2 122.8
2.2 3.4 3.6 6.1
126.7 132.0 132.9 149.3
7.9 8.9 7.7 16.1
97.9 103.2 92.7 122.3
-2.2 -1.3 -3.4 1.5
105.1 107.7 112.9 110.7
0.8 2.4 4.0 3.0
2016 Ⅰ Ⅱp
113.8 119.6
4.6 6.1
133.8 146.7
5.6 11.1
100.5 107.9
2.7 4.6
110.2 112.2
4.9 4.2
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.5 99.4 109.7 106.1 112.5 108.4 110.6 107.7 109.7 111.7 114.7 120.6
5.6 -0.1 2.2 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 3.1 1.8 0.4 1.3 5.2
116.4 117.1 118.7 114.5 121.7 127.4 131.3 118.5 120.5 118.9 128.8 138.1
3.6 10.5 3.3 -0.7 1.6 5.9 2.9 1.9 12.6 -1.4 7.2 15.0
100.5 91.8 107.9 105.6 111.5 96.8 95.5 91.3 101.3 115.7 120.5 125.2
-2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -1.0 -2.0 -4.4 -2.6 5.4 1.2 1.6 -2.7 2.5
112.1 94.5 106.2 102.4 108.7 104.5 107.5 109.9 108.4 106.5 105.6 110.3
10.2 -4.8 3.6 2.1 3.0 1.5 1.8 2.9 -2.9 0.7 0.3 1.4
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.9 105.2 113.2 111.8 116.6 109.6 113.1 110.3 116.1 121.3 121.8 125.4
-2.4 5.8 3.2 5.4 3.6 1.1 2.3 2.4 5.8 8.6 6.2 4.0
128.2 117.3 134.6 129.2 130.3 136.4 140.2 129.2 129.4 143.2 146.8 158.0
10.1 0.2 13.4 12.8 7.1 7.1 6.8 9.0 7.4 20.4 14.0 14.4
97.6 91.5 104.6 107.1 114.3 88.3 92.0 88.1 98.0 122.2 124.5 120.3
-2.9 -0.3 -3.1 1.4 2.5 -8.8 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 5.6 3.3 -3.9
102.9 105.5 106.9 105.7 111.1 106.3 109.7 111.2 117.8 110.6 109.0 112.4
-8.2 11.6 0.7 3.2 2.2 1.7 2.0 1.2 8.7 3.8 3.2 1.9
2016 1 2 3 4 5 6p 7p
112.9 108.6 119.8 116.5 122.9 119.5 118.0
4.6 3.2 5.8 4.2 5.4 9.0 4.3
125.3 125.0 151.1 139.3 146.0 154.7 141.0
-2.3 6.6 12.3 7.8 12.0 13.4 0.6
101.6 93.1 106.7 109.4 115.1 99.1 98.7
4.1 1.7 2.0 2.1 0.7 12.2 7.3
112.0 107.8 110.9 109.0 115.5 112.0 115.7
8.8 2.2 3.7 3.1 4.0 5.4 5.5
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
September 2016
61
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods Nondurable goods y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)
Period 2013 2014 2015
102.2 102.0 104.4
-0.3 -0.2 2.4
103.4 102.7 106.0
0.6 -0.7 3.2
101.7 101.8 103.7
-0.7 0.1 1.9
-
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.8 100.8 102.5 104.0
-2.1 2.1 0.1 -0.7
103.5 103.0 100.8 103.3
-4.4 2.1 -1.8 1.5
99.7 99.9 103.2 104.4
-1.1 2.3 0.9 -1.4
-
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
101.4 100.5 105.4 110.1
0.6 -0.3 2.8 5.9
100.0 102.6 105.5 115.8
-3.4 -0.4 4.7 12.1
102.0 99.6 105.4 107.7
2.3 -0.3 2.1 3.2
-
2016 Ⅰ Ⅱp
104.5 104.8
3.1 4.3
101.8 106.2
1.8 3.5
105.7 104.2
3.6 4.6
-
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.5 96.5 103.4 101.8 99.9 100.7 105.0 100.2 102.3 105.2 101.0 105.9
-5.8 -0.4 0.1 2.3 0.2 3.9 1.5 -3.7 2.6 -3.3 -1.8 3.5
99.8 106.7 103.9 98.2 103.7 107.2 107.2 94.9 100.3 99.9 103.1 106.9
-9.5 0.3 -3.9 0.1 2.0 4.3 -1.7 -8.6 5.7 -4.3 0.0 9.3
103.6 92.2 103.2 103.4 98.3 98.0 104.0 102.4 103.1 107.5 100.1 105.5
-4.2 -0.8 1.9 3.4 -0.5 3.8 2.9 -1.7 1.4 -2.9 -2.6 1.2
109 108 108 108 104 107 105 106 107 105 103 101
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.5 94.1 105.5 105.1 98.0 98.5 103.2 103.1 109.9 112.9 106.8 110.6
2.0 -2.5 2.0 3.2 -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 2.9 7.4 7.3 5.7 4.4
101.4 92.8 105.7 107.1 98.2 102.5 107.0 103.6 105.8 115.6 114.6 117.1
1.6 -13.0 1.7 9.1 -5.3 -4.4 -0.2 9.2 5.5 15.7 11.2 9.5
105.8 94.7 105.4 104.2 98.0 96.7 101.6 102.9 111.6 111.8 103.4 107.8
2.1 2.7 2.1 0.8 -0.3 -1.3 -2.3 0.5 8.2 4.0 3.3 2.2
102 103 101 104 105 98 100 101 103 105 105 102
2016 1 2 3 4 5 6p 7p 8p
106.2 95.0 112.4 106.3 103.6 104.6 101.7 -
1.6 1.0 6.5 1.1 5.7 6.2 -1.5 -
96.8 92.8 115.8 106.7 102.2 109.8 92.5 -
-4.5 0.0 9.6 -0.4 4.1 7.1 -13.6 -
110.3 95.9 110.9 106.1 104.2 102.4 105.6 -
4.3 1.3 5.2 1.8 6.3 5.9 3.9 -
100 98 100 101 99 99 101 102
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
62
Consumer sentiment index
Statistical Appendices
6. Machinery orders received and facility investment index Period 2013 2014 2015
Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)
Facility investment index (2010=100) y-o-y change (%)
23,078 26,487 25,545
6.6 14.8 -3.6
2,580 5,012 1,921
20.5 94.2 -61.7
20,497 21,475 23,624
5.1 4.8 10.0
99.8 105.0 111.6
-0.8 5.2 6.3
2014Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,627 6,106 7,673 6,081
18.6 4.1 49.2 -6.2
1,221 305 2,708 778
184.6 -45.0 418.5 -27.6
5,406 5,801 4,965 5,303
4.8 9.2 7.4 -1.9
98.6 107.9 100.7 112.9
7.5 6.7 1.4 5.5
2015Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,430 7,017 5,596 6,502
-3.0 14.9 -27.1 6.9
405 493 399 624
-66.9 61.7 -85.3 -19.8
6,025 6,524 5,197 5,878
11.4 12.5 4.7 10.8
107.7 112.8 111.0 114.7
9.2 4.5 10.2 1.6
2016Ⅰ Ⅱp
6,486 6,809
0.9 -3.0
635 567
56.9 15.1
5,851 6,242
-2.9 -4.3
100.1 113.7
-7.1 0.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,753 1,844 3,030 2,274 1,831 2,001 1,772 4,083 1,818 1,936 2,308 1,837
-4.9 10.7 45.8 23.2 -13.9 5.7 -8.4 151.8 14.5 -25.7 10.2 3.0
88 120 1,013 97 116 92 89 2,541 79 211 428 139
-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.3 2,653.2 10.6 -73.2 162.6 12.5
1,665 1,724 2,017 2,177 1,714 1,909 1,683 1,543 1,739 1,725 1,881 1,698
-2.3 15.2 3.1 24.2 -8.7 13.6 6.8 0.9 14.7 -5.0 -2.6 2.3
90.4 95.6 109.8 110.6 108.2 104.8 111.3 90.6 100.2 100.1 112.6 126.1
0.3 13.9 8.7 12.1 6.0 2.2 2.7 -9.9 12.8 -8.7 10.5 15.3
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,313 1,853 2,264 2,766 2,096 2,155 2,004 1,684 1,908 2,048 1,965 2,489
31.9 0.5 -25.3 21.6 14.5 7.7 13.1 -58.8 5.0 5.8 -14.9 35.5
116 141 148 127 197 169 133 160 106 98 228 298
32.0 17.6 -85.4 30.7 69.4 84.7 50.2 -93.7 34.8 -53.6 -46.7 113.6
2,197 1,712 2,116 2,640 1,899 1,986 1,870 1,524 1,802 1,950 1,737 2,191
31.9 -0.7 4.9 21.2 10.8 4.0 11.2 -1.2 3.6 13.1 -7.6 29.1
103.1 98.5 121.4 113.5 107.2 117.7 119.4 105.9 107.8 112.6 107.2 124.4
14.0 3.0 10.6 2.6 -0.9 12.3 7.3 16.9 7.6 12.5 -4.8 -1.3
2016 1 2 3 4 5 6p 7p
1,758 2,275 2,453 1,987 2,135 2,687 2,077
-24.0 22.7 8.4 -28.2 1.9 24.7 3.7
69 255 312 189 169 209 51
-40.7 80.7 110.8 49.3 -14.2 23.6 -61.9
1,689 2,020 2,142 1,798 1,966 2,478 2,026
-23.1 18.0 1.2 -31.9 3.5 24.8 8.3
96.9 90.7 112.7 110.3 110.4 120.3 104.7
-6.0 -7.9 -7.2 -2.8 3.0 2.2 -12.3
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
September 2016
63
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received
(current value, billion won)
Period
Value of construction y-o-y completed change (%) (total)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Domestic construction orders y-o-y received change (%) (total)
Type of order Public Private y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2013 2014 2015
98,089 98,491 99,967
10.6 0.4 1.5
34,459 32,015 30,694
1.9 -7.1 -4.1
59,714 62,413 65,114
18.0 4.5 4.3
77,885 90,606 134,338
-12.9 16.3 48.3
24,736 26,427 28,778
-5.1 6.8 8.9
50,947 62,115 102,449
-14.8 21.9 65.0
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
21,678 26,178 23,604 27,031
7.4 1.6 -0.5 -4.9
7,148 8,708 7,245 8,913
2.1 -6.5 -10.1 -11.6
13,677 16,513 15,359 16,864
10.2 6.8 4.2 -1.4
16,144 23,621 24,236 26,604
16.8 26.4 44.0 -6.8
5,924 6,563 5,181 8,758
38.0 22.2 3.9 -13.2
9,759 16,714 18,384 17,258
6.3 32.3 60.7 -2.4
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
21,315 25,034 24,816 28,803
-1.7 -4.4 5.1 6.6
6,593 8,189 7,175 8,738
-7.8 -6.0 -1.0 -2.0
13,973 15,862 16,651 18,628
2.2 -3.9 8.4 10.5
25,417 35,210 36,440 37,270
57.4 49.1 50.4 40.1
4,594 9,069 4,900 10,215
-22.5 38.2 -5.4 16.6
20,537 25,623 30,814 25,525
110.4 53.3 67.6 47.9
2016 Ⅰ Ⅱp
24,191 30,045
13.5 20.0
6,711 8,183
1.8 -0.1
16,209 20,476
16.0 29.1
28,927 33,018
13.8 -6.2
7,812 5,570
70.1 -38.6
20,406 26,704
-0.6 4.2
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7,057 6,666 7,954 8,477 8,192 9,509 7,916 7,722 7,966 8,241 8,350 10,439
12.5 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.7 -2.8 -4.6 -8.1 -2.5
2,315 2,207 2,626 2,740 2,584 3,384 2,430 2,324 2,492 2,533 2,675 3,705
11.7 -5.9 1.8 -3.2 -7.6 -8.3 -7.8 -9.0 -13.2 -14.2 -14.2 -7.7
4,452 4,237 4,987 5,459 5,317 5,737 5,149 5,113 5,098 5,370 5,300 6,194
12.4 15.7 4.1 9.6 4.5 6.5 4.9 5.9 1.9 0.5 -5.9 1.1
5,546 5,632 4,966 7,501 6,820 9,301 7,033 8,789 8,414 8,000 6,399 12,205
55.9 19.3 -10.5 45.6 9.6 27.0 21.8 87.4 32.1 3.2 -20.8 -3.9
2,048 2,244 1,633 1,894 1,983 2,686 1,531 1,617 2,033 1,413 1,850 5,495
57.5 57.2 -4.6 21.0 26.8 19.9 2.5 9.7 0.6 -7.0 -30.5 -6.9
3,309 3,238 3,213 5,596 4,769 6,348 5,364 6,961 6,060 6,406 4,432 6,420
56.9 -1.6 -15.0 77.1 5.1 28.5 29.3 119.4 47.0 4.3 -14.8 1.3
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,824 6,690 7,801 7,709 7,767 9,558 7,895 7,939 8,982 8,503 8,709 11,590
-3.3 0.4 -1.9 -9.1 -5.2 0.5 -0.3 2.8 12.8 3.2 4.3 11.0
2,037 2,092 2,463 2,466 2,324 3,399 2,284 2,206 2,685 2,268 2,441 4,029
-12.0 -5.2 -6.2 -10.0 -10.1 0.5 -6.0 -5.1 7.8 -10.4 -8.7 8.7
4,570 4,379 5,024 4,939 5,131 5,792 5,350 5,437 5,864 5,865 5,877 6,886
2.6 3.4 0.7 -9.5 -3.5 1.0 3.9 6.3 15.0 9.2 10.9 11.2
7,515 5,435 12,467 9,055 12,639 13,516 8,685 8,659 19,097 10,378 13,226 13,666
35.5 -3.5 151.0 20.7 85.3 45.3 23.5 -1.5 127.0 29.7 106.7 12.0
1,318 1,135 2,140 2,585 2,458 4,026 1,791 1,921 1,188 1,803 3,296 5,115
-35.6 -49.4 31.3 36.5 24.0 49.9 17.0 18.8 -41.6 27.7 78.2 -6.9
6,084 4,218 10,235 6,414 10,078 9,131 6,817 6,433 17,564 8,574 9,369 7,582
83.9 30.3 218.6 14.6 111.3 43.8 27.1 -7.6 189.8 33.8 111.4 18.1
2016 1 2 3p 4 5 6p 7p
7,359 7,273 9,559 8,983 9,460 11,602 9,698
7.8 8.7 22.5 16.5 21.8 21.4 22.8
2,042 1,970 2,699 2,316 2,350 3,517 2,239
0.2 -5.9 9.6 -6.1 1.1 3.5 -2.0
5,003 4,948 6,257 6,269 6,703 7,504 7,055
9.5 13.0 24.6 26.9 30.6 29.6 31.9
7,225 10,014 11,687 10,828 9,657 12,533 12,540
-3.9 84.3 -6.3 19.6 -23.6 -7.3 44.4
2,691 2,347 2,774 1,190 2,126 2,254 3,641
104.1 106.8 29.6 -54.0 -13.5 -44.0 103.3
4,260 7,586 8,559 9,271 7,412 10,021 8,226
-30.0 79.8 -16.4 44.5 -26.5 9.7 20.7
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
64
Type of order Public Private
Statistical Appendices
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Period
Leading index (2010=100)
Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)
Coincident index (2010=100)
Cyclical indicator of coincident index (2010=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.9 108.2 108.6 108.9 109.4 110.2 110.7 111.2 111.3 111.8 112.3 112.9
99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.3 99.7 99.9 100.1 99.9 100.0 100.1 100.3
108.3 108.6 108.5 108.9 109.2 109.8 110.1 110.4 110.5 110.9 111.2 111.7
99.6 99.6 99.3 99.4 99.4 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.5 99.7 99.7 99.9
85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5
85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
113.3 113.6 113.9 114.3 114.6 114.9 115.1 115.7 116.3 116.8 117.1 117.6
100.4 100.3 100.1 100.2 100.0 100.0 99.8 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.1 100.2
112.2 112.5 112.9 113.0 113.1 113.3 113.8 114.2 114.3 114.3 114.4 115.1
100.1 100.1 100.2 100.1 99.9 99.9 100.0 100.2 100.0 99.7 99.7 100.1
89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 92.3 93.1 90.0 95.4
93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1 100.7 93.6 94.0
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
118.2 118.7 119.2 119.7 120.4 120.7 121.1 121.6 122.2 122.7 123.0 123.2
100.4 100.4 100.6 100.6 100.8 100.7 100.7 100.8 100.9 101.0 100.9 100.8
115.5 116.0 116.1 116.4 116.3 116.4 116.8 117.6 118.4 119.0 119.1 119.4
100.1 100.3 100.1 100.1 99.8 99.6 99.7 100.1 100.6 100.9 100.7 100.6
94.0 89.4 101.5 101.3 95.6 79.9 88.4 86.6 96.1 97.2 95.5 95.5
90.3 92.1 103.7 97.5 99.4 96.4 84.3 89.6 95.1 101.2 95.9 97.5
2016 1 2p 3 4 5p 6p 7p 8 9
123.4 123.5 123.9 124.5 124.9 125.2 125.8 -
100.5 100.3 100.3 100.4 100.4 100.3 100.4 -
119.3 119.4 119.5 119.8 120.4 121.0 121.8 -
100.3 100.2 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.5 100.9 -
92.1 87.0 94.2 97.3 97.1 91.3 89.7 90.0 -
93.2 86.3 98.3 95.7 102.3 94.8 90.5 89.5 95.0
Sources: Statistics Korea, Federation of Korean Industries
September 2016
65
9. Balance of payments ( I) Period
Current account
Goods
2013 2014 2015p
81,148.2 84,373.0 105,870.7
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
535,375.9 524,135.2 428,547.8
-6,499.2 -3,678.5 -15,708.1
9,055.7 4,150.8 5,901.7
-4,189.3 -4,984.7 -4,612.9
151,471.8 158,004.3 150,820.7 152,723.8
133,876.5 132,828.6 129,843.3 127,586.8
-2,889.0 50.8 -459.6 -380.7
-736.9 556.0 1,398.7 2,933.0
-820.0 -1,674.6 -1,251.6 -1,238.5
24,216.7 33,679.8 30,637.7 31,755.8
134,439.1 142,258.7 135,363.0 136,777.0
110,222.4 108,578.9 104,725.3 105,021.2
-4,387.1 -3,092.6 -3,561.5 -4,666.9
3,830.8 -1,556.9 2,727.7 900.1
-1,221.2 -1,112.7 -695.8 -1,583.2
24,076.1 25,794.6
27,884.2 33,005.9
118,001.5 127,882.2
90,117.3 94,876.3
-4,172.6 -4,132.5
1,249.3 -1,901.3
-884.8 -1,177.5
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,870.1 4,965.6 6,313.7 7,030.6 9,187.0 7,890.3 6,096.7 6,966.9 7,601.3 8,741.5 10,755.2 6,954.1
3,847.8 6,103.7 7,643.8 10,068.2 8,786.8 6,320.7 5,677.3 7,041.2 8,258.9 7,983.9 9,593.0 7,560.1
50,116.2 47,605.8 53,749.8 56,091.9 51,957.8 49,954.6 52,416.1 48,151.0 50,253.6 51,029.1 49,241.6 52,453.1
46,268.4 41,502.1 46,106.0 46,023.7 43,171.0 43,633.9 46,738.8 41,109.8 41,994.7 43,045.2 39,648.6 44,893.0
-1,727.0 -529.9 -632.1 -226.5 159.6 117.7 343.2 -391.6 -411.2 163.7 94.0 -638.4
84.9 -444.1 -377.7 -1,912.8 629.4 1,839.4 466.0 835.6 97.1 856.3 1,183.5 893.2
-335.6 -164.1 -320.3 -898.3 -388.8 -387.5 -389.8 -518.3 -343.5 -262.4 -115.3 -860.8
2015p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,257.1 6,081.1 10,101.0 7,729.8 8,315.5 11,872.3 9,714.8 8,546.9 10,846.4 9,120.4 9,910.3 7,375.1
6,310.3 7,020.8 10,885.6 12,090.2 8,792.6 12,797.0 9,924.9 8,805.4 11,907.4 10,605.2 10,466.1 10,684.5
45,022.1 40,294.9 49,122.1 49,908.3 43,471.9 48,878.5 47,259.6 42,991.3 45,112.1 47,298.7 43,360.4 46,117.9
38,711.8 33,274.1 38,236.5 37,818.1 34,679.3 36,081.5 37,334.7 34,185.9 33,204.7 36,693.5 32,894.3 35,433.4
-1,991.3 -1,758.8 -637.0 -804.0 -83.8 -2,204.8 -1,254.3 -1,013.0 -1,294.2 -1,701.7 -1,263.9 -1,701.3
2,558.1 1,037.8 234.9 -3,096.6 40.8 1,498.9 1,139.5 850.9 737.3 594.4 893.6 -587.9
-620.0 -218.7 -382.5 -459.8 -434.1 -218.8 -95.3 -96.4 -504.1 -377.5 -185.5 -1,020.2
2016p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
6,820.9 7,169.7 10,085.5 3,371.7 10,361.3 12,061.6 8,706.1
7,899.7 7,539.0 12,445.5 9,559.3 10,737.6 12,709.0 10,812.9
37,227.8 36,231.7 44,542.0 40,313.0 42,426.0 45,143.2 45,510.8
29,328.1 28,692.7 32,096.5 30,753.7 31,688.4 32,434.2 31,697.9
-1,934.2 -1,242.1 -996.3 -1,617.9 -1,135.2 -1,379.4 -1,532.6
1,253.4 852.1 -856.2 -4,066.2 908.7 1,256.2 49.0
-398.0 20.7 -507.5 -503.5 -149.8 -524.2 -623.2
Exports
Imports
82,781.0 88,885.4 120,290.0
618,156.9 613,020.6 548,837.8
13,149.4 24,107.9 20,664.9 26,450.8
17,595.3 25,175.7 20,977.4 25,137.0
2015p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
22,439.2 27,917.6 29,108.1 26,405.8
2016p Ⅰ Ⅱp
p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
66
(US $ million)
Statistical Appendices
10. Balance of payments ( II)
(US $ million)
Period
Financial account*
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivatives
Other investment
Reserve assets
Capital account
2013 2014 2015p
80,104.6 89,334.0 109,730.0
15,593.2 18,765.6 22,597.8
9,344.5 30,608.9 48,592.8
-4,410.3 -3,826.9 2,532.5
43,281.1 25,900.6 23,954.3
16,296.1 17,885.8 12,052.6
-27.0 -8.9 -64.7
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
15,120.7 24,650.2 21,230.4 28,332.7
2,367.1 7,990.4 2,952.8 5,455.3
12,614.4 4,291.2 4,292.1 9,411.2
-1,004.6 -1,983.9 -1,649.7 811.3
-5,879.9 3,182.9 9,803.2 18,794.4
7,023.7 11,169.6 5,832.0 -6,139.5
-2.1 -4.3 3.6 -6.1
2015p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
23,800.1 28,671.4 29,615.2 27,643.3
4,386.2 7,467.6 4,920.9 5,823.1
7,838.4 6,994.1 15,096.2 18,664.1
-41.0 -461.4 4,040.7 -1,005.8
4,506.4 7,369.2 9,844.1 2,234.6
7,110.1 7,301.9 -4,286.7 1,927.3
-23.1 -25.5 -27.9 11.8
2016p Ⅰ Ⅱp
28,218.0 18,694.5
5,070.3 2,047.8
16,719.1 13,917.8
2,756.8 -1,131.2
4,958.1 2,911.6
-1,286.3 948.5
-11.6 -7.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,459.5 6,830.1 4,831.1 6,109.1 8,223.5 10,317.6 4,787.1 7,866.8 8,576.5 7,243.3 10,457.9 10,631.5
-1,420.3 1,601.5 2,185.9 2,369.9 3,512.1 2,108.4 492.8 524.3 1,935.7 2,769.7 1,998.3 687.3
4,393.6 6,429.0 1,791.8 -1,793.6 2,027.7 4,057.1 1,696.5 -705.2 3,300.8 339.4 2,686.3 6,385.5
-177.3 -264.6 -562.7 -890.2 -546.6 -547.1 -597.0 -621.0 -431.7 426.1 91.7 293.5
-2,243.2 -3,260.8 -375.9 5,757.2 -2,737.4 163.1 -132.9 7,841.8 2,094.3 3,955.6 8,579.1 6,259.7
2,906.7 2,325.0 1,792.0 665.8 5,967.7 4,536.1 3,327.7 826.9 1,677.4 -247.5 -2,897.5 -2,994.5
-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3 11.2 -1.3 -1.1 -0.8 -4.2
2015p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7,898.1 5,175.2 10,726.8 9,802.8 8,558.1 10,310.5 10,018.0 9,052.5 10,544.7 11,086.1 8,697.0 7,860.2
659.2 1,631.0 2,096.0 1,712.2 949.9 4,805.5 -15.1 328.1 4,607.9 3,501.4 903.0 1,418.7
3,623.7 3,001.5 1,213.2 138.0 358.3 6,497.8 8,277.2 2,537.4 4,281.6 7,098.9 5,128.8 6,436.4
76.2 -27.5 -89.7 -301.9 -403.7 244.2 936.4 1,618.6 1,485.7 -812.0 -609.9 416.1
-489.1 371.2 4,624.3 4,851.0 4,755.5 -2,237.3 1,792.3 8,450.1 -398.3 -931.9 1,662.4 1,504.1
4,028.1 199.0 2,883.0 3,403.5 2,898.1 1,000.3 -972.8 -3,881.7 567.8 2,229.7 1,612.7 -1,915.1
-13.0 -1.7 -8.4 -8.5 -1.5 -15.5 -29.9 1.1 0.9 -5.4 17.0 0.2
2016p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
6,478.9 9,503.0 12,236.1 167.1 8,928.1 9,599.3 9,388.0
-71.5 1,554.4 3,587.4 -143.4 715.8 1,475.4 949.2
4,650.7 6,199.9 5,868.5 3,360.8 4,358.8 6,198.2 90.7
1,214.5 756.6 785.7 -1,033.1 -463.7 365.6 -482.6
302.9 2,557.8 2,097.4 -3,333.8 3,915.7 2,329.7 6,863.9
382.3 -1,565.7 -102.9 1,316.6 401.5 -769.6 1,966.8
-6.1 -2.3 -3.2 -5.0 1.0 -3.0 2.7
* Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows. p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
September 2016
67
11. Prices Period
(2010=100)
All items y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Producer prices All items Commodities
Core
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2013 2014 2015
107.7 109.0 109.8
1.3 1.3 0.7
110.1 111.1 110.3
1.0 0.9 -0.7
105.8 107.4 109.4
1.5 1.6 1.8
106.6 108.8 111.1
1.6 2.0 2.2
105.7 105.2 101.0
-1.6 -0.5 -4.0
106.2 104.8 98.0
-2.5 -1.4 -6.4
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9
1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1
109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2
1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9
105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5
1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9
106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4
-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4
106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 105.9 106.3 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5
-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.3 109.5 109.4 109.1 108.8 108.8
1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8
110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.4 111.5 110.6 110.2 110.1
0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.7 107.9 107.8 107.8 107.7 107.8
1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.1 109.1 109.3
1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6
105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6 105.2 104.5 104.1 103.1
-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -2.1
105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.4 105.1 104.7 103.6 103.1 101.7
-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -1.1 -1.4 -1.8 -2.0 -3.6
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.4 109.4 109.4 109.5 109.8 109.8 110.0 110.2 110.0 110.1 109.9 110.2
0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3
110.9 110.6 110.3 110.1 110.6 110.7 110.3 110.5 110.2 109.9 109.7 110.1
-0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.0
108.2 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.2 109.2 109.8 110.0 109.9 110.1 110.1 110.3
1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
110.3 110.4 110.6 110.7 111.1 111.1 111.3 111.5 111.4 111.6 111.7 111.9
2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4
101.9 101.9 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.4 100.8 100.3 99.7 99.3 99.0
-3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6 -4.0 -4.5 -4.6 -4.6 -4.7 -4.0
99.7 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.3 98.6 97.7 97.0 96.0 95.3 95.0
-5.8 -5.8 -5.9 -5.8 -5.7 -5.8 -6.4 -7.1 -7.3 -7.4 -7.6 -6.6
2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
110.3 110.8 110.5 110.6 110.7 110.7 110.8 110.7
0.8 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4
109.7 110.5 109.6 109.6 109.5 109.5 109.5 108.9
-1.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -1.1 -0.7 -1.5
110.8 111.0 111.2 111.4 111.6 111.6 111.9 112.1
2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9
112.2 112.5 112.5 112.7 112.9 113.0 113.1 112.8
1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.1
98.5 98.5 98.4 98.7 98.8 99.0 99.0 99.0
-3.3 -3.4 -3.3 -3.0 -3.0 -2.7 -2.4 -1.7
94.0 93.9 93.8 94.1 94.3 94.6 94.4 94.4
-5.7 -5.9 -5.7 -5.2 -5.1 -4.7 -4.3 -3.4
Source: Bank of Korea
68
Consumer prices Commodities Services
Statistical Appendices
12. Employment Period
Economically active persons (thousands)
y-o-y change (%)
Employed persons (thousands) All industry Manufacturing y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%)
SOC & services Unemployment rate (%) y-o-y change (%)
2013 2014 2015
25,873 26,536 26,913
1.5 2.6 1.4
25,066 25,599 25,936
1.6 2.1 1.3
4,184 4,330 4,486
1.9 3.5 3.6
19,347 19,805 20,029
1.6 2.4 1.5
3.1 3.5 3.6
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736
1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4
24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962
1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3
4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264
3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0
18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514
1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7
3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825 26,891 26,775 26,766 26,809 26,786 26,270
3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875 25,979 25,885 25,917 25,951 25,968 25,384
2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7
4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,345 4,358 4,335 4,347 4,361 4,355 4,406
2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.4 3.3
19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841 20,003 19,940 19,949 19,973 20,098 19,896
3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0
3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
26,094 26,398 26,577 26,954 27,211 27,255 27,303 27,064 27,129 27,137 27,082 26,747
1.7 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.8
25,106 25,195 25,501 25,900 26,189 26,205 26,305 26,141 26,264 26,298 26,253 25,879
1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 2.0
4,421 4,433 4,400 4,455 4,464 4,478 4,528 4,491 4,512 4,552 4,545 4,552
3.3 3.7 2.7 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.4 3.3
19,693 19,716 19,832 20,004 20,179 20,161 20,250 20,153 20,249 20,248 20,353 20,266
1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.9
3.8 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2
2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
26,433 26,734 26,955 27,228 27,455 27,563 27,578 27,524
1.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.7
25,445 25,418 25,800 26,153 26,450 26,559 26,603 26,528
1.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.5
4,566 4,541 4,525 4,503 4,514 4,493 4,464 4,418
3.3 2.4 2.8 1.1 1.1 0.3 -1.4 -1.6
19,955 19,885 20,028 20,263 20,483 20,593 20,719 20,677
1.3 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.6
3.7 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6
Source: Statistics Korea
September 2016
69
13. Financial indicators Call rate (1 day)
CDs (91 days)
2012 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3
1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3
1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09 1,964.43 1,980.78 1,915.59
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7
2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1
2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7
2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9
1,949.26 1,985.80 2,041.03 2,127.17 2,114.80 2,074.20 2,030.16 1,941.49 1,962.81 2,029.47 1,991.97 1,961.31
2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2
1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4
2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2
1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3
1,912.06 1,916.66 1,995.85 1,994.15 1,983.40 1,970.35 2,016.19 2,034.65
Period
Source: Bank of Korea
70
(period average)
Yields (%) Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Statistical Appendices
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
Stock KOSPI (end-period)
14. Monetary indicators Reserve money
Period 2013 2014 2015
(period average, billion won)
M1
y-o-y change (%)
M2
y-o-y change (%)
Lf y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
91,379.4 103,331.5 120,691.4
11.3 13.1 16.8
484,062.9 536,733.4 636,639.0
9.5 10.9 18.6
1,885,781.3 2,009,576.3 2,182,911.9
4.8 6.6 8.6
2,543,232.5 2,721,502.2 2,986,699.4
6.9 7.0 9.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
85,839.3 88,855.7 89,523.5 87,729.0 89,654.8 91,207.6 90,643.7 93,729.6 95,130.6 93,640.4 93,609.9 96,988.5
5.1 8.8 13.2 8.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 13.8 14.7 10.1 12.8 13.7
464,914.5 472,239.6 472,430.1 475,330.0 475,526.7 486,587.5 488,982.7 481,416.9 490,518.7 491,947.9 499,242.7 509,617.9
5.8 8.0 7.4 8.7 8.4 10.2 10.7 9.5 11.5 10.7 12.1 11.3
1,841,128.1 1,857,135.0 1,862,405.5 1,867,726.3 1,870,289.7 1,884,193.2 1,890,728.6 1,888,658.4 1,903,187.1 1,908,557.6 1,923,339.2 1,932,026.4
4.8 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.3
2,469,789.3 2,488,539.0 2,499,718.1 2,512,459.7 2,518,239.1 2,533,750.8 2,549,443.5 2,557,336.3 2,577,546.7 2,587,071.4 2,605,866.7 2,619,029.5
7.7 8.1 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
98,541.6 100,547.9 100,624.0 98,898.5 101,791.4 101,412.3 101,164.2 107,682.4 105,354.1 107,117.5 106,667.9 110,175.6
14.8 13.2 12.4 12.7 13.5 11.2 11.6 14.9 10.7 14.4 13.9 13.6
515,742.5 518,475.5 520,299.0 518,809.3 523,069.9 532,041.2 534,028.8 538,640.3 548,550.8 551,416.0 562,006.2 577,721.1
10.9 9.8 10.1 9.1 10.0 9.3 9.2 11.9 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.4
1,937,045.6 1,954,340.7 1,964,954.0 1,970,361.6 1,982,390.9 1,999,376.3 2,013,935.1 2,031,777.2 2,037,600.8 2,051,149.8 2,083,253.5 2,088,729.8
5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.6 7.1 7.5 8.3 8.1
2,635,100.1 2,647,674.0 2,659,443.2 2,669,341.4 2,684,643.9 2,703,088.1 2,725,737.6 2,743,972.5 2,759,390.8 2,776,968.0 2,817,698.0 2,834,968.4
6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.1 7.3 8.1 8.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
113,304.2 116,502.4 115,974.9 115,132.7 117,726.3 118,688.2 122,041.0 121,854.4 126,572.2 125,616.2 126,767.1 128,117.5
15.0 15.9 15.3 16.4 15.7 17.0 20.6 13.2 20.1 17.3 18.8 16.3
579,964.2 592,737.4 600,719.9 610,803.3 621,985.5 630,546.3 645,975.4 653,105.9 665,691.1 669,737.7 677,629.2 690,772.4
12.5 14.3 15.5 17.7 18.9 18.5 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.5 20.6 19.6
2,092,223.5 2,109,892.3 2,127,887.8 2,148,114.7 2,166,741.1 2,179,561.1 2,200,510.9 2,218,660.3 2,230,000.7 2,232,432.0 2,242,848.2 2,246,070.1
8.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.2 9.4 8.8 7.7 7.5
2,857,610.1 2,876,467.8 2,907,976.4 2,936,746.7 2,960,998.1 2,986,316.5 3,013,503.9 3,028,981.1 3,049,823.2 3,059,051.9 3,076,029.2 3,086,887.8
8.4 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.2 8.9
2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
131,279.3 134,913.0 132,957.9 135,038.9 135,971.3 135,758.4 135,906.7
15.9 15.8 14.6 17.3 15.5 14.4 11.4
699,767.3 708,014.0 713,861.2 720,818.5 722,544.4 730,637.8 735,172.2
20.7 19.4 18.8 18.0 16.2 15.9 13.8
2,261,356.4 2,285,313.5 2,294,544.7 2,299,081.3 2,312,801.2 2,334,256.2 2,352,245.1
8.1 8.3 7.8 7.0 6.7 7.1 6.9
3,110,535.8 3,133,492.2 3,158,687.8 3,170,277.9 3,189,899.3 3,223,154.5 3,242,338.3
8.9 8.9 8.6 8.0 7.7 7.9 7.6
Source: Bank of Korea
September 2016
71
15. Exchange rates Period
100/ \
Euro/ \
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
2013 2014 2015
1,055.3 1,099.2 1,172.0
-1.5 4.2 6.6
1,004.7 920.1 972.0
-19.5 -8.4 5.6
1,456.3 1,336.5 1,280.5
2.8 -8.2 -4.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3
-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5
1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7
-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5
1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3
-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4 1,024.3 1,013.6 1,050.6 1,054.0 1,101.1 1,099.2
-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8 -8.0 -8.8 -2.3 -0.7 3.7 4.2
1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0 995.7 977.6 960.2 964.1 933.9 920.1
-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3 -12.3 -13.4 -12.6 -10.5 -10.0 -8.4
1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2 1,371.8 1,336.2 1,333.3 1,328.8 1,372.2 1,336.5
0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6 -7.1 -9.1 -8.1 -8.8 -5.0 -8.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,090.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1 1,108.0 1,124.1 1,166.3 1,176.3 1,194.5 1,142.3 1,150.4 1,172.0
1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5 8.5 10.8 13.9 16.1 13.7 8.4 4.5 6.6
921.3 920.7 920.3 897.2 894.6 917.2 939.3 970.1 996.8 944.1 936.7 972.0
-11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8 -10.9 -8.3 -5.7 -0.8 3.8 -2.1 0.3 5.6
1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0 1,215.2 1,260.5 1,275.4 1,317.3 1,343.9 1,254.8 1,218.3 1,280.5
-16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7 -12.6 -8.9 -7.0 -1.4 0.8 -5.6 -11.2 -4.2
2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1,208.4 1,235.4 1,153.5 1,143.9 1,190.6 1,164.7 1,125.7 1,118.5
10.8 12.4 4.4 7.1 7.5 3.6 -3.5 -4.9
1,017.1 1,085.8 1,026.0 1,058.2 1,072.8 1,132.2 1,073.7 1,086.3
10.4 17.9 11.5 17.9 19.9 23.4 14.3 12.0
1,322.2 1,348.3 1,307.4 1,298.4 1,326.8 1,295.5 1,246.7 1,246.9
7.0 9.6 9.2 9.4 9.2 2.8 -2.3 -5.3
Source: Bank of Korea
72
(end-period)
US $/ \
Statistical Appendices
A dragon structure in Yongdusan Park, Busan
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