201609

Page 1

ISSN 2287-7266

Republic of Korea

eb.kdi.re.kr

Vol.38 No.9 September 2016

CONOMIC U L L E T I N

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issue 2017 Budget Proposal

Economic News Briefing

Korea Sales Festa Starts September 29 Korea Launches an Open Platform for Fintech Regulations on Free Economic Zones to be Eased Korea Grows 0.8% in Q2

Statistical Appendices



02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview

03

01. External economic situation

04

02. Private consumption

09

03. Facility investment

11

04. Construction investment

14

05. Exports and imports

16

06. Mining and manufacturing production

19

07. Service sector activity

21

08. Employment

23

09. Financial markets

27

9.1 Stock market

27

9.2 Exchange rate

28

9.3 Bond market

28

9.4 Money supply and money market

29

10. Balance of payments

31

11. Prices

33

11.1 Consumer prices

33

11.2 International oil and commodity prices

35

12. Real estate market

38

12.1 Housing market

38

12.2 Land market

40

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

contents

42

43 44 Policy Issue 2017 budget proposal

53 Economic News Briefing 50

Government discusses impact of Hanjin Shipping’s filing for court receivership and subsequent measures Korea Sales Festa starts September 29 Korea launches an open platform for fintech Regulations on free economic zones to be eased External debt rises to US $391.8 bn in Q2 Korea grows 0.8% in Q2 (preliminary)

53 57 Statistical Appendices

Editor-in-Chief Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI) Jung Moo-Kyung (MOSF) Editorial Board Lee Young-Joo (MOSF) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Yu Seong-Im (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) Editors Jeon Aram (MOSF) Kim Hanul (MOSF) Kang Ji-Eun (KDI)


The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview

01. External economic situation

02. Private consumption 03. Facility investment 04. Construction investment 05. Exports and imports 06. Mining and manufacturing production 07. Service sector activity 08. Employment 09. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators 02

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Overview

The Korean economy has seen domestic demand weaken as government measures aimed at boosting consumption expired, such as the individual consumption tax cut on cars, while exports improved due to recovering prices and volume as well as other temporary factors. The economy added fewer jobs in July than the previous month (up 354,000 → up 298,000, y-o-y), despite improving job growth in the service sector, as job growth in the manufacturing sector fell sharply due to restructuring. Consumer prices rose at a slower rate in August compared with the previous month (up 0.7% → up 0.4%, y-o-y), due to a temporary reduction in electricity rates. Mining and manufacturing production rebounded in July compared to the previous month, rising 1.4 percent, helped by the Olympics and due to a low base effect. Service output fell 0.7 percent month-on-month in July, due to weak wholesale & retail and fewer stock transactions as well as fewer people engaging in outdoor activities due to extremely hot weather. Retail sales decreased 2.6 percent in July, even though sales of semi-durable goods and nondurable goods increased, as durable goods sales dropped due to a sharp decline in automobile sales following the sunset of the individual consumption tax cut on cars. Facility investment fell sharply in July, down 11.6 percent month-on-month, due to weak transportation equipment. Construction completed rose at a slower pace compared to the previous month, up 1.3 percent, due to weak public sector investment. In July, the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.4 points as the value of construction completed and mining & manufacturing production improved. The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.1 points due to an increase in construction orders received. Exports increased 2.6 percent year-on-year in August, growing for the first time in 20 months since January of last year, due to more days worked and strong exports of vessels. Stock prices fell and Korea Treasury bond yields increased in August following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that pointed to the increasing possibility of the Fed raising rates. Also, the Korean won continued to strengthen, but at a slower pace, against the US dollar following the Chairwoman’s comments. Housing prices increased at a faster rate than the previous month in August (up 0.04% → up 0.07%, m-o-m) due to robust demand for apartments scheduled for reconstruction, while Jeonse (lump-sum

September 2016

03


deposits with no monthly payments) prices increased at the same rate (up 0.08%, m-o-m) due to increasing supply. Economic recovery could be limited if strikes in the automobile industry are prolonged, while external and internal risks to the economy, including the Fed’s rate hike and industrial restructuring, remain. The government will closely monitor domestic and global economic developments as well as examine the possible impact of internal and external uncertainties on domestic financial markets. The government will implement expansionary fiscal policies, including the supplementary budget, as well as formulate other policies aimed at increasing consumption and investment.

1. External economic situation

Major economies including the US and eurozone have yet to build up recovery momentum and emerging economies including China continue to struggle, while risks to the global economy, such as a Fed rate hike, remain.

US

The US economy grew 1.1 percent (annualized q-o-q, preliminary) in the second quarter of 2016 as falling investment offset increasing consumption, while retail sales and employment slowed recently. Industrial production rose 0.7 percent month-on-month in July due to increases in the production of nondurable goods (up 0.6%) such as energy (up 2.2%). Both the ISM Manufacturing Index and the ISM Non-manufacturing Index for August fell. ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 48.2 (Jan 2016) → 49.5 (Feb) → 51.8 (Mar) → 50.8 (Apr) → 51.3 (May) → 53.2 (Jun) → 52.6 (Jul) → 49.4 (Aug) ISM Non-manufacturing Index (base=50) 53.5 (Jan 2016) → 53.4 (Feb) → 54.5 (Mar) → 55.7 (Apr) → 52.9 (May) → 56.5 (Jun) → 55.5 (Jul) → 51.4 (Aug)

Retail sales fell short of market expectations for 0.4 percent growth in July, staying unchanged compared to the previous month and falling 0.3 percent when excluding motor vehicle and auto parts sales. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August fell for the third consecutive month.

04

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (1966=100) 91.7 (Feb 2016) → 91.0 (Mar) → 89.0 (Apr) → 94.7 (May) → 93.5 (Jun) → 90.0 (Jul) → 89.8 (Aug) Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 94.0 (Feb 2016) → 96.1 (Mar) → 94.7 (Apr) → 92.4 (May) → 98.0 (Jun) → 97.3 (Jul) → 101.1 (Aug)

Existing home sales fell 3.2 percent month-on-month to an annualized pace of 5,390,000 in July, falling for the first time in five months, due to rising prices and inadequate supply, while new home sales rose at the highest rate in nine years. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %) 5.6 (Nov 2015) → 5.6 (Dec) → 5.6 (Jan 2016) → 5.4 (Feb) → 5.5 (Mar) → 5.5 (Apr) → 5.3 (May) → 5.1 (Jun) New home sales (m-o-m, %) 6.3 (Nov 2015) → 5.9 (Dec) → -2.2 (Jan 2016) → -0.2 (Feb) → 2.3 (Mar) → 6.1 (Apr) → 0.4 (May) → 1.7 (Jun) → 12.4 (Jul)

The unemployment rate for August stood at 4.9 percent, maintaining a level of full employment, while nonfarm payrolls added 151,000 jobs, falling short of market expectations for 180,000 new jobs, due to declines in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands) 168 (Jan 2016) → 233 (Feb) → 186 (Mar) → 144 (Apr) → 24 (May) → 292 (Jun) → 255 (Jul) → 151 (Aug)

US GDP growth and industrial production

Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board

10 (%) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q)

September 2016

05


US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor 800

12 (thousands)

(%)

600 10 400 200

8

0 6 -200 4

-400 -600

2 -800 -1,000

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)

2015.1

0

2016.1

Unemployment rate (right)

(Percentage change from previous period)

Real GDP1

1.7

2015 2014 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.0 2.6

- Personal consumption expenditures

1.5

2.9

4.6

3.2

2.4

2.9

2.7

4.4

-

- Nonresidential fixed investment

3.5

6.0

-1.1

2.1

1.3

1.6

3.9 -3.3 -3.4 -0.9

-

2013

Annual Annual

- Residential fixed investment

Q3 2.0

Q4 0.9

Q1 0.8

Q2 1.1

2.3

1.6

11.7 13.3 14.9 12.6 11.5

7.8 -7.7

2016 May Jun -

Aug -

-

-

-

-

-

-

11.9

3.5

11.4

-

-

-

Industrial production

1.9

2.9

0.9

0.3

-0.5 -0.7

0.4 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2

0.4

0.7

-

Retail sales

3.8

4.1

0.6

2.3

-0.7

1.5

0.9

1.4

0.2

0.8

0.0

-

Existing home sales

9.1

-3.1

1.8

6.3

-0.7

4.6

2.3 -3.8

1.9

3.8

1.5

1.1 -3.2

-

Unemployment rate²

7.4

6.2

5.7

5.3

5.5

5.4

5.2

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.7

4.9

4.9

4.9

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

1.5

1.6

1.2

0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.4

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.8

-

0.3 -0.1

-

Jul -

1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted (%) Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg

China

China’s economy grew 6.7 percent in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations, and has recently shown stable growth mainly backed by industrial production and domestic demand. However, there have been signs of slowdown as fixed asset investment especially in the private sector grew at a slower rate in July and the manufacturing PMI fell below 50.0 for the first time in five months. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 49.4 (Jan 2016) → 49.0 (Feb) → 50.2 (Mar) → 50.1 (Apr) → 50.1 (May) → 50.0 (Jun) → 49.9 (Jul)

06

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment 16

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics 60

(%)

(%)

14

50

12

40

10

30

8

20

6

10

4

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

GDP (y-o-y, left)

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

0

Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2013

2014

Real GDP

7.7

7.3

6.9

Q1 7.0

Industrial production

Annual Annual Annual

2015 Q2 7.0

Q3 6.9

Q4 6.8

Q1 6.7

Q2 6.7

2016 May -

Jun -

Jul -

9.7

8.3

6.1

6.4

6.3

5.9

5.9

5.8

6.1

6.0

6.2

6.0

Fixed asset investment (accumulated, nominal)

19.6

15.7

10.0

13.5

11.4

10.3

10.0

10.7

9.0

9.6

9.0

8.1

Retail sales (nominal)

13.1

12.0

10.7

10.6

10.2

10.7

11.1

10.3

10.2

10.0

10.6

10.2

Exports

8.6

5.5

-2.5

4.7

-2.1

-5.9

-5.0

-9.6

-3.6

-4.1

-4.8

-4.4

Consumer prices1

2.6

2.0

1.4

1.2

1.4

1.7

1.5

2.1

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

Producer prices

-1.9

-1.9

-5.2

-4.6

-4.8

-5.7

-5.9

-4.8

-2.9

-2.8

-2.6

-1.7

1

1. Quarterly change: Average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

Japan

Japan’s economy slowed in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, recording 0.0 percent growth, due to the Kumamoto earthquake and strong yen. In July, there were signs of continuing slowdown as exports fell and industrial production stayed flat. Consumer prices declined for the fifth consecutive month, and so did core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food. Core consumer prices (excluding fresh food, y-o-y, %) -0.1 (Jan 2016) → 0.0 (Feb) → -0.3 (Mar) → -0.4 (Apr) → -0.4 (May) → -0.4 (Jun) → -0.5 (Jul)

September 2016

07


Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production

Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 25

6 (%)

(%)

20

4

15 10

2

5 0

0

-5 -2

-10 -15

-4

-20 -6

-25 2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

GDP (q-o-q, left)

(Percentage change from previous period)

2013

2014

2015 Q2 -0.4

Q3 0.5

Q4 -0.4

Q1 0.5

Q2 0.0

2016 May -

Jun -

Jul -

0.1

-2.6

2.3

0.0

Real GDP

1.4

0.0

0.6

Q1 1.2

Industrial production

-0.6

2.1

-1.2

1.1

-1.3

-1.0

0.0

-1.0

Retail sales

1.2

1.7

-0.4

-1.7

0.2

1.0

-0.2

-2.3

0.1

-0.1

0.3

1.4

Exports (y-o-y)

9.5

4.8

3.4

9.0

6.7

3.7

-4.6

-7.9

-9.5

-11.3

-7.4

-14.0

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

0.4

2.7

0.8

2.3

0.5

0.1

0.3

0.1

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

Annual Annual Annual

Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan

Eurozone

The eurozone economy slowed in the second quarter, growing 0.3 percent compared to the previous quarter, due to weak consumption and sluggish exports. Recovery momentum remains weak as the composite PMI for August fell to the lowest level for the past 19 months. Composite PMI (base=50) 53.6 (Jan 2016) → 53.0 (Feb) → 53.1 (Mar) → 53.0 (Apr) → 53.1 (May) → 53.1 (Jun) → 53.2 (Jul) → 52.9 (Aug) Unemployment rate (%) 10.4 (Jan 2016) → 10.4 (Feb) → 10.2 (Mar) → 10.1 (Apr) → 10.1 (May) → 10.1 (Jun) → 10.1 (Jul)

08

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production

Source: Eurostat

3

10 (%)

(%) 8

2

6 4

1

2 0

0 -2

-1

-4 -6

-2

-8 -3

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, left)

2015.Q1

-10

2016.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

(Percentage change from previous period)

2013

2014 2.0

Q1 0.8

Q3 0.4

Q4 0.4

Q1 0.5

Q2 0.3

2016 May -

Jun -

Real GDP

-0.3

1.1

Q4 0.4

Industrial production

-0.7

0.9

0.6

1.5

0.7

0.1

0.4

0.1

0.8

-0.4

-1.2

0.6

-

Retail sales

-0.6

1.4

1.0

2.7

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.6

0.1

0.4

0.0

1.1

Exports (y-o-y)

1.0

2.2

4.4

5.4

5.5

8.2

4.4

3.6

-1.1

-0.4

1.9

-2.2

-

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

1.4

0.4

0.3

0.0

-0.3

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

0.2

Annual Annual

Annual

2015 Q2 0.4

Jul -

Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg

2. Private consumption

Private consumption (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2016 rose 1.0 percent compared to the previous quarter and rose 3.3 percent compared to a year ago. (Percentage change from previous period)

2013 1.9

1.7

Q1 0.4

-

-

2.8

Annual Annual

Private consumption² (y-o-y)

2014 Q2 -0.3

Q3 0.7

Q4 0.3

Annual¹

2015

1.7

1.4

1.1

2.2

Q1¹ 0.8

-

1.5

-0.1

Q3¹ 1.1

Q4¹ 1.4

2016 Q1¹ Q2¹ -0.2 1.0

1.7

2.2

3.3

2.2

Q2¹

3.3

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea

September 2016

09


Private consumption

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

12 (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Private consumption (q-o-q)

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

Private consumption (y-o-y)

Retail sales in July decreased 2.6 percent month-on-month, as sales of durable goods (down 9.9%), such as automobiles, fell, while sales of semi-durable goods (up 0.6%), such as clothing, and sales of nondurable goods (up 0.7%), such as food, increased. Year-on-year, the index rose 4.3 percent. (Percentage change from previous period)

2014 Annual Annual Q3 1.4

-

Q1 1.0

2015 Q2 0.7

Q3 1.3

Q4 3.1

Q2¹ 2.8

2016 Jun¹ 1.1

2013

Retail sales

Q4 0.3

Annual

Jul¹ -2.6

(y-o-y)

0.7

2.0

2.0

2.4

3.9

2.2

3.4

3.6

6.1

6.1

9.0

4.3

- Durable goods2

0.3

5.1

3.2

0.4

10.2

4.3

0.8

2.0

8.2

7.5

2.8

-9.9

· Automobiles

2.1

16.4

5.1

0.3

21.3

7.0

5.4

3.5

11.2

15.3

10.1

-26.4

- Semi-durable goods3

2.1

-0.8

3.9

-2.3

-1.2

-2.0

-1.0

1.8

2.8

2.2

-1.0

0.6

- Nondurable goods

0.4

1.6

-0.8

1.3

2.5

0.6

1.2

0.7

0.3

0.4

0.9

0.7

4

1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea

Domestic sales of cars fell as the individual consumption tax cut on cars ended, while sales at department stores and large discount stores as well as gasoline sales and credit card use continued to rise. (Percentage change from same preriod in previous year)

2016 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

15.8

14.2

13.9

7.2

22.7

9.6

-0.1

4.8

8.0

1.5

Large discount store sales

13.4

-5.4

-1.4

0.2

Domestic sales of gasoline

8.5

-1.1

-0.7

1.6

Domestic sales of cars

-4.5

9.0

18.9

5.8

Credit card use Department store sales

Jul

Aug

12.9

9.1

15.0

13.5

11.2

4.8

-5.5

2.9

5.8

0.2

7.2

4.6

2.3

9.7

20.8

24.1

-10.5

-11.1

Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, data provided by retail industries

10

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Retail sales

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

20 (%) 15

10

5

0

-5

-10 2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Retail sales (m-o-m)

2016.1

Retail sales (y-o-y)

Retail sales by type

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

50 (y-o-y, %) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.1

2007.1

Durable goods

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Semi-durable goods

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Nondurable goods

3. Facility investment

Facility investment (preliminary GDP) rose 2.8 percent quarter-on-quarter and fell 2.7 percent year-onyear in the second quarter of 2016.

September 2016

11


(Percentage change from previous period)

2014 6.0

Q4 3.5

Annual

Facility investment² (y-o-y)

5.3

Q1¹ 0.5

Annual¹

2015 Q2¹ 0.8

Q3¹ 1.8

2016 Q4¹ 0.5

Q1¹ -7.4

Q2¹ 2.8

-

4.4

-

5.8

5.1

6.7

3.9

-4.5

-2.7

- Machinery

5.0

5.2

2.1

0.1

-2.9

0.8

-3.0

-6.4

1.9

- Transportation equipment

8.3

-0.4

12.5

1.5

9.3

3.7

7.4

-9.4

4.5

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea

Facility investment

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

40 (%) 30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Facility investment (q-o-q)

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

Facility investment (y-o-y)

Facility investment by type Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50 (y-o-y, %) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

Transportation equipment

12

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

Machinery


The facility investment index in July decreased 11.6 percent month-on-month as both machinery and transportation equipment investment declined. The index fell 12.3 percent year-on-year.

(Percentage change from previous period)

2015

2014 Facility investment index

Annual

Annual

5.2

6.3

Q1 -0.2

2016

-2.2

Q3 5.2

Q2

Q4 -1.2

Q1 -8.7

6.2

Jun1 4.8

Jul1 -11.6

Q21

(y-o-y)

-

-

9.2

4.5

10.2

1.6

-7.1

0.8

2.2

-12.3

- Machinery

3.9

2.9

-0.1

-6.0

0.7

-2.6

-5.3

-0.4

2.6

-0.2

- Transportation equipment

8.8

14.9

-1.0

8.8

16.5

1.0

-14.3

20.5

10.5

-31.5

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10

60

(y-o-y, %)

(trillion won) 9

40 8 7

20

6 0

5 4

-20 3 -40

2 2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Machinery orders (left)

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

Machinery imports (right)

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2015

2014 Annual Annual

Domestic machinery orders (q-o-q, m-o-m)

14.8

-3.6

Q1 -3.0

14.9

Q3 -27.1

Q2

Q4 6.9

Q1 0.9

2016 Q21 Jun1 -3.0 24.7

Jul1 3.7

-

-

-0.1

8.6

-10.0

9.2

-6.3

4.6

19.1

-12.8

- Public

94.2

-61.7

-66.9

61.7

-85.3

-19.8

56.9

15.1

23.6

-61.9

- Private

4.8

10.0

11.4

12.5

4.7

10.8

-2.9

-4.3

24.8

8.3

Machinery imports

5.8

0.3

8.5

-1.1

2.3

-6.4

-13.0

-6.7

2.0

-15.3

Average manufacturing operation ratio

76.1

74.3

74.3

74.3

74.9

73.6

73.2

72.2

72.2

73.8

Facility investment adjustment pressure²

-1.4

-1.8

-2.8

-2.8

-1.2

-0.6

-0.7

0.6

0.6

1.2

1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association

September 2016

13


The facility investment outlook is mixed: Facility investment adjustment pressure has been rising, but the average manufacturing operation ratio remains low, and automobile sales continue to decrease. Domestic automobile sales growth (y-o-y, %) 9.0 (Feb 2016) → 18.9 (Mar) → 5.8 (Apr) → 20.8 (May) → 24.1 (Jun) → -10.5 (Jul) → -11.1 (Aug)

4. Construction investment

Construction investment in the second quarter of 2016 (preliminary GDP) rose 3.1 percent quarter-onquarter and 10.8 percent year-on-year.

Construction investment

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

20 (%) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Construction investment (q-o-q)

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

Construction investment (y-o-y)

(Percentage change from previous period)

2014 3.9

Q1¹ 5.5

2015 Q2¹ 1.8

Q3¹ 3.3

Q4¹ -2.4

Q1¹ 6.8

2016 Q2¹ 3.1

-

0.9

1.0

5.6

7.5

9.6

10.8

Annual¹

1.1

Q4 1.4

-

-1.5

- Building construction

6.3

-4.9

6.3

2.5

4.9

5.6

0.3

3.6

5.5

- Civil engineering works

-7.3

-4.7

-7.3

11.4

-3.8

-1.4

-8.0

14.0

-1.9

Annual

Construction investment² (y-o-y)

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea

The value of construction completed (constant) in July rose 1.3 percent month-on-month as both civil engineering works and building construction increased. The index rose 21.4 percent year-on-year.

14

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Construction investment by type Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50 (y-o-y, %) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Residential buildings

Building construction

2016.Q1

Civil engineering works

(Percentage change from previous period)

2.3

Q1 4.1

2015 Q2 -2.1

Q3 6.4

Q4 0.0

Q1 9.4

Q21 2.4

2016 Jun1 3.9

Jul1 1.3

-

-2.0

-3.9

5.9

8.0

14.8

19.3

20.3

21.4

7.8

6.0

4.4

-0.7

9.5

2.6

9.0

2.1

4.8

1.2

-12.3

-3.8

3.7

-4.4

0.9

-5.0

10.2

0.5

2.1

1.4

2014 Construction completed (constant) (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works

Annual

Annual

-0.7 -

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Construction completed is expected to rise, given a large increase in construction orders, particularly for civil engineering works. However, the index may be temporarily hampered by falls in apartment presales and shipments of intermediate goods. Apartment presales (thousands, Real Estate 114) 8 (Jan 2016) → 9 (Feb) → 38 (Mar) → 35 (Apr) → 54 (May) → 41 (Jun) → 48 (Jul) → 30 (Aug) Domestic shipments of cement (million tons) 3.01 (Jan 2016) → 2.89 (Feb) → 5.50 (Mar) → 5.00 (Apr) → 5.10 (May) → 4.85 (Jun) → 4.50 (Jul) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2015

2014 Annual Annual

Construction orders (current value)

2016

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q21

Jun1

Jul1

16.3

48.2

57.4

49.1

50.4

40.1

13.8

-6.2

-7.3

44.4

-

-

47.4

11.6

21.3

-26.5

17.7

-10.1

-3.8

62.6

- Building construction

24.5

50.1

89.5

49.3

42.5

37.8

13.1

2.6

16.8

34.2

- Civil engineering works

-4.4

42.9

1.7

48.3

83.6

45.9

16.0

-32.8

-51.2

91.5

Building permits²

11.2

34.3

11.0

25.1

57.0

40.4

19.7

5.3

7.6

-27.93

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

1. Preliminary 2. Floor area 3. Due to a high base effect from a year ago when apartment presales surged 88.2% y-o-y Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

September 2016

15


Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 300 (y-o-y, %) 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Construction orders

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Building permit area

5. Exports and imports

Exports (preliminary) increased 2.6 percent year-on-year to US $40.13 billion in August. Exports increased for the first time in 20 months thanks to increased days worked (up 2 days, y-o-y) and strong vessel exports. By region, shipments to Japan and the ASEAN countries turned positive and by item, shipments of vessels, steel, semiconductors and petrochemicals increased. Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 7.2 (Japan), 2.6 (ASEAN countries), -4.8 (EU), -4.8 (US), -5.3 (China), -7.6 (Middle East), -16.2 (Latin America) Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 89.9 (vessels), 5.4 (steel), 2.5 (semiconductors), 4.1 (petrochemicals), -9.0 (mobile phones), -14.8 (automobiles), -26.9 (petroleum products)

By volume, exports in August fell at a faster rate of 3.3 percent than the 1.6 percent in the previous month. Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, decreased month-on-month to US $1.67 billion. Average daily exports (US $ billion) 1.62 (Jan 2016) → 1.80 (Feb) → 1.79 (Mar) → 1.83 (Apr) → 1.85 (May) → 1.96 (Jun) → 1.74 (Jul) → 1.67 (Aug)

16

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


(US $ billion)

2014 Exports

2015

2016

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Aug

572.66

526.76

133.40

135.10

128.24

130.02

2.3

-8.0

-3.0

-7.3

-9.5

2.11

1.93

2.01

1.99

1.87

(y-o-y, %) Average daily exports

Q1

Q2

Jul

Aug1

39.11

115.59

126.01

40.99

40.13

-12.0

-15.2

-13.4

-6.7

-10.3

2.6

1.86

1.78

1.74

1.88

1.74

1.67

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

Exports by item

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

160 140

(y-o-y, %)

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

Exports

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Semiconductors

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Automobiles

Steel

Imports (preliminary) in August rose 0.1 percent year-on-year to US $34.82 billion. Imports increased for the first time in 23 months as capital and consumer goods imports increased and commodities imports decreased at a slower rate. Import growth by category (y-o-y, %, Jul → Aug) -18.4 → -5.2 (commodities), -8.6 → 4.3 (capital goods), -8.6 → 7.7 (consumer goods) (US $ billion)

2014 Imports (y-o-y, %) Average daily imports

2015

2016

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Aug

Q1

Q2

Jul

Aug1

525.51

436.50

111.77

110.50

107.96

106.27

34.77

93.72

98.94

33.39

34.82

1.9

-16.9

-15.6

-15.6

-18.7

-17.8

-18.7

-16.2

-10.5

-13.6

0.1

1.94

1.60

1.68

1.62

1.58

1.52

1.58

1.41

1.48

1.42

1.45

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

September 2016

17


Imports by category

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

100 (y-o-y, %) 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

Imports

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Commodities

2016.1

Capital goods

The trade balance (preliminary) posted a surplus of US $5.30 billion in August, staying in the black for the 55th consecutive month. Surpluses decreased compared with the previous month. (US $ billion)

2014 Trade balance

2015

2016

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Aug

Q1

Q2

Jul

Aug1

47.15

90.26

21.63

24.61

20.28

23.74

4.34

21.87

27.07

7.60

5.30

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

Exports and imports

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

60 (US$ billion) 50

40

30

20

10

0

-10 2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Trade balance

18

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

2012.1

Exports

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Imports


6. Mining and manufacturing production

Mining and manufacturing production rose 1.4 percent month-on-month in July, backed by strong electronic parts and automobiles, despite a fall in communications equipment and other transportation equipment. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index increased 1.7 percent.

Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50 (%) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Industrial production (m-o-m)

2016.1

Industrial production (y-o-y)

(Percentage change from previous period)

-

2015 Q2 -0.5

Jul -0.7

Q1 -0.6

Q2ยน 1.0

2016 May 2.8

-0.6

-1.3

-3.4

-0.2

1.0

-

-0.5

-0.7

-0.7

1.1

(y-o-y)

-0.6

-1.3

-3.5

-0.4

Shipment

-0.2

-0.4

-0.2

-1.8

- Domestic consumption

0.4

0.5

0.5

- Exports

-1.0

-1.5

-1.1

Annual

(q-o-q, m-o-m) Mining and manufacturing2 (y-o-y) Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)

Manufacturing

Inventory 3

Junยน -0.4

Julยน 1.4

4.7

0.8

1.6

3.0

-0.4

1.3

1.1

4.9

1.0

1.7

2.1

1.5

0.5

0.1

-0.9

0.9

0.9

-0.3

0.5

-3.1

3.5

2.0

1.6

-0.3

2.9

2.3

0.2

3.9

-2.6

0.1

-0.5

-0.7

Average operation ratio (%)

74.3

74.3

74.4

73.2

72.2

73.1

72.2

73.8

Production capacity (y-o-y)

1.2

1.5

1.0

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.4

1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing and electricity & gas industry Source: Statistics Korea

3. End-period

Compared to the previous month, production of electronic parts (up 6.4%), automobiles (up 3.7%) and semiconductors (up 3.2%) rose, while communications equipment (down 10.6%), other transportation equipment (down 3.3%) and processed metals (down 1.8%) fell. Compared to a year ago, production of semiconductors (up 46.7%), chemical products (up 2.8%) and electronic parts (up 3.6%) rose, while automobiles (down 6.0%), processed metals (down 8.9%) and other communications equipment (down 9.0%) declined.

September 2016

19


The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell 0.9 percentage points month-on-month to 120.0 percent as inventories fell 0.7 percent and shipments increased 0.1 percent. Inventories of automobiles (up 6.2%), communications equipment (up 37.5%) and food (up 4.7%) rose, while refined petroleum (down 11.7%), primary metals (down 2.7%) and electronic parts (down 6.9%) declined. Shipments of electronic parts (up 9.3%), refined petroleum (up 5.6%) and primary metals (up 1.4%) rose, while semiconductors (down 3.9%), communications equipment (down 16.6%) and automobiles (down 1.0%) fell.

Shipment and inventory

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

10 (m-o-m, %)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Shipment growth

2016.1

Inventory growth

The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector increased 1.6 percentage points month-onmonth to 73.8 percent.

Average manufacturing operation ratio

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

100 (%) 90

80

70

60

50

20

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1


Mining and manufacturing for August is expected to increase in line with increasing exports. However, the index may be hindered by autoworker strikes.

7. Service sector activity

Service output in July decreased 0.7 percent month-on-month and increased 2.7 percent year-on-year.

Service sector activity

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

15 (%)

10

5

0

-5

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Service sector activity (m-o-m)

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Service sector activity (y-o-y)

(Percentage change from previous period)

Weight Service activity index 100.0 - Wholesale & retail 21.6 - Transportation services 8.5 - Hotels & restaurants 7.2 - Publishing & communications services 8.4 - Financial & insurance services 14.7 - Real estate & renting 5.3 - Professional, scientific & technical services 5.6 - Business services 3.3 - Education services 10.9 - Healthcare & social welfare services 7.5 - Entertainment, cultural & sports services 2.9 - Membership organizations & personal services 3.6 - Sewerage & waste management 0.6

2013

2014

Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1

1.5 0.1 1.0 0.5 2.2 0.5 2.5 3.3 2.1 0.8 5.2 -0.7 6.1 -0.4

2.3 0.4 1.7 1.5 2.0 5.2 6.2 2.3 2.5 1.3 6.3 -1.0 -0.5 1.0

0.8 -0.4 1.8 -1.7 -0.4 3.3 4.3 2.9 0.8 -0.4 2.2 -2.3 -1.9 3.6

2.8 1.7 1.4 -2.0 -0.6 9.0 8.1 -0.4 3.9 0.9 6.2 1.1 -0.5 7.2

0.5 0.7 -0.2 -0.6 -1.9 1.6 -0.8 -2.9 2.3 1.0 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.6

2016 2015 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q21 Jun1 Jul1 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.0 -0.7 0.3 0.9 2.2 2.0 0.5 -0.5 -2.6 1.9 1.9 -0.5 0.4 1.9 -3.4 2.1 0.8 -0.8 -0.2 1.9 -0.5 3.0 1.1 1.9 1.8 -2.8 3.8 1.2 -0.4 1.6 1.7 -1.0 6.4 0.9 -0.5 2.9 1.5 1.9 -0.1 1.6 0.3 1.5 -0.5 -5.3 0.4 -1.0 3.4 -0.6 1.8 0.9 -0.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 1.4 3.1 3.6 2.2 0.3 -2.5 1.0 3.2 5.8 7.2 -6.2 1.6 -0.2 -2.7 1.0 -0.6 -1.6 3.6 4.6 -4.6 4.4 3.5 -7.1

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

September 2016

21


Month-on-month, transportation services (up 1.9%), hotels & restaurants (up 1.9%), real estate & renting (up 1.9%) and healthcare & social welfare services (up 0.3%) increased, while professional, scientific & technical services (down 5.3%), wholesale & retail (down 0.5%), publishing & communications services (down 2.8%) and entertainment, cultural & sports services (down 6.2%) decreased.

Wholesale & retail

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

15 (%)

10

5

0

-5

-10

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Wholesale & retail (m-o-m)

2015.1

2016.1

Wholesale & retail (y-o-y)

July 2016 service output by business

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

4 (y-o-y, %) 2

Financial & insurance services

0

-2

-4

Real estate & renting

Transportation services

Total index

Wholesale & retail

Hotels & reataurants

Business services

Professional, scientific & technical services

-8

Health & social welfare services Membership organizations & personal services

Publishing & communications services

-6

Sewerage & waste management

Education services

Entertainment, cultural & sports services

The service output in August is expected to be affected by decreases in domestic sales of cars and average daily stock transactions. Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 8.7 (Oct 2015) → 8.3 (Nov) → 7.1 (Dec) → 8.3 (Jan 2016) → 7.8 (Feb) → 7.5 (Mar) → 8.1 (Apr) → 8.5 (May) → 9.1 (Jun) → 8.3 (Jul) → 7.9 (Aug)

22

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


8. Employment

The number of workers on payroll in July increased by 298,000 from a year earlier to 26,600,000, and the employment rate rose 0.4 percentage points to 66.7 percent. By industry, services continued to lead employment growth. By employment status, permanent workers continued to drive employment growth, while temporary, daily and self-employed workers fell at a slower pace.

Number of persons employed and employment growth

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

1,000

27 (thousands)

(millions)

800

26

600 25 400 24 200 23 0 22

-200

-400

21 2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Employment growth (y-o-y, left)

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)

Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64 (%) 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55

2006.1

Original data

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

September 2016

23


Employment by industry

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

100

80

60

71.1 71.2 70.6 69.7 69.4 69.3 69.6 69.7 69.6 69.5 69.8 70.8 71.5 71.4 70.8 70.2 70.0 69.9 69.9 70.2 70.2 70.1 70.6 71.2 71.5 71.5 70.9 70.7 70.6 70.7 70.9

40 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 20

0

17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.3 17.2 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.3 17.6 17.9 17.9 17.5 17.3 17.1 16.9 16.8 4.4 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.8 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.1 4.0 3.6 3.8 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.3 2014.1 2

3

4

5

6

7

Services

8

9

10

11

12 2015.1 2

3

4

Construction

5

6

8

9

10

11

12 2016.1 2

Manufacturing

2012 2013

2014

Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1

Number of employed (millions)

7

3

4

5

6

7

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

2015 Q2 Q3

Q4

Jul

Q1

2016 Q2 Jun

Jul

24.68 25.07 25.60 25.77 25.94 25.27 26.10 26.24 26.14 26.31 25.55 26.39 26.56 26.60

Employment rate (%)

59.4 59.5 60.2 60.4 60.6 59.0 60.7 60.9 60.5 61.1 59.7 60.8 61.2 61.2

(Seasonally adjusted)

59.4 59.5 60.2 60.3 60.3 60.5 59.9 60.3 60.5 60.1 60.5 60.1 60.2 60.3

Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

437

386

533

422

337

354

308

310

376

326

287

289

354

298

(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)

451

394

601

531

444

441

435

419

482

418

341

375

453

410

- Manufacturing

14

79

146

129

156

139

147

164

176

170

126

38

15

-65

- Construction

22

-19

42

72

27

72

44

11

-19

25

-7

-28

-24

1

- Services

416

318

424

336

250

222

235

234

309

212

216

360

454

465

- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

-14

-8

-87 -127 -115 -106

-91

-54

-86

-98 -111

-68 -109 -107

Source: Statistics Korea

Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100

80

4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.0 20.8 20.9 20.9 21.3 21.2 21.3 21.2 21.2 6.3 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.8

60

19.3 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.5 20.1 19.7 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.2 19.8

40

20

48.3 48.2 47.8 47.3 47.1 47.2 46.8 47.0 47.1 47.2 47.3 48.5 49.0 49.0 48.5 48.1 47.8 47.9 48.0 48.5 48.6 48.7 48.7 49.7 50.4 50.6 49.9 49.4 49.1 48.9 48.8

0 2014.1 2

3

4

Unpaid family workers

24

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12 2015.1 2

Self-employed workers

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

3

4

5

6

Daily workers

7

8

9

10

11

12 2016.1 2

Temporary workers

3

4

5

6

7

Permanent workers


2012 2013

2014

Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1

2015 Q2 Q3

Q4

Jul

Q1

2016 Q2 Jun

Jul

Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

437

386

533 422

337

354

308

310

376

326

287

289

354

298

- Wage workers

315

483

548 476

487

442

422

521

565

478

427

392

433

356

路 Permanent workers

436

615

443 355

432

355

332

505

536

462

505

457

443

364

路 Temporary workers

-2

-96

140 141

54

82

3

1

129

-31

15

120

107

70

-120

-37

-35

-20

1

4

87

15 -100

47

-93 -185 -117

-78

121

-97

-15

-54

-151

1

路 Daily workers - Nonwage workers 路 Self-employed workers

-88 -114 -211 -189 -151 -140 -103

-78

-58

124

-67

7

-89

-49

-37 -136 -135

-76

-96

-68

-29

-10

- Male

234

186

266 196

132

141

145

111

132

118

107

124

192

163

- Female

203

200

267 226

205

213

163

199

244

208

180

165

162

136

- 15 to 29

-36

-50

77

56

68

32

90

50

100

22

40

82

131

88

- 30 to 39

-31

-21

-21

-29

-38

-1

-56

-60

-36

-53

-21

-23

-28

-56

38

- 40 to 49

11

22

4

-14

-47

-15

1

7

4

6

-41

-33

-9

- 50 to 59

270

254

239 190

149

177

138

145

135

180

84

82

88

45

- 60 or more

222

181

200 201

172

192

150

174

169

173

179

189

197

230

Source: Statistics Korea

The number of unemployed persons in July was down 24,000 year-on-year to 975,000, and the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 3.5 percent. The unemployment rate fell in all age groups except in the group of those in their 30s. The economically inactive population in July increased 113,000 from a year earlier to 15,860,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 63.5 percent. The number of those economically inactive due to education (down 107,000) and childcare (down 71,000) decreased, while those due to rest (up 92,000) increased.

Unemployment rate

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

6 (%)

5

4

3

2

2006.1

Original data

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

September 2016

25


2012 2013

2015 Q2 Q3

Q4

Jul

976 1,089 1,042 929

845

998 1,153 1,028 1,004

2014

Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual

Number of unemployed (thousands)

Q1

Q1

Q2

2016 Jun

Jul

820

807

937

854

-35

-13

137

121

40

58

65

45

-9

87

64

-14

-46

-24

-26 -9 3.2

-6 -7 3.1

49 80 3.5

59 63 3.2

24 16 3.6

25 32 4.1

42 23 3.8

31 14 3.4

-3 -6 3.1

71 16 3.7

51 13 4.3

11 -24 3.8

-15 -32 3.6

3 -27 3.5

(Seasonally adjusted)

3.2

3.1

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.7

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

- 15 to 29

7.5

8.0

9.0

8.3

9.2

10.3

9.9

8.4

8.0

9.4

11.3

10.3

10.3

9.2

- 30 to 39

3.0

3.0

3.1

2.8

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.2

- 40 to 49

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.3

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.1

1.9

2.0

- 50 to 59

2.1

1.9

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.4

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.3

2.3

2.4

- 60 or more

2.4

1.8

2.3

1.6

2.5

4.1

2.2

2.0

2.1

2.3

4.2

2.2

2.0

2.1

Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands) - Male - Female Unemployment rate (%)

975

Source: Statistics Korea

Labor force participation rate

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

65 (%) 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Original data

Seasonally adjusted rate

2012 2013

2014

Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1

Economically inactive population (millions)

2016.1

2015 Q2 Q3

Q4

Jul

Q1

2016 Q2 Jun

Jul

16.08 16.22 15.98 16.07 16.11 16.47 15.84 15.92 16.19 15.75 16.57 15.97 15.86 15.86

Labor force participation rate (%)

61.3

61.5

62.4 62.4 62.6 61.5 63.2 63.0 62.5 63.4 61.7 63.2 63.5 63.5

(Seasonally adjusted)

61.3

61.5

62.4 62.4 62.6 62.8 62.3 62.5 62.6 62.5 62.8 62.4 62.5 62.5

Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)

128

141 -246 -101

- Childcare

-2

1

128

72

150

162

128

114

99

135

89

113

-39

-31

8

41

50

3

-63

22 -115 -105

-83

-71

- Housework

123

-3 -131

-67

-45

-91

-41

-19

-29

-76

32

69

76

97

- Education

-12

77

-72 -146 -141 -213 -112 -118 -137 -108

-89

-88 -107

- Old age

148

54

93

89

109

68

95

103

171

100

161

109

106

88

- Rest

-53

-7

-92

-15

141

154

151

123

136

92

97

141

133

92

-81

Source: Statistics Korea

26

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market

The KOSPI rose 0.9 percent in August from 2,016.2 points to 2,034.7 points, and the KOSDAQ fell 6.0 percent from 706.2 points to 663.7 points. The KOSPI rose to 2,056.24 points on August 19, the highest level this year, driven by abundant global liquidity. The index, however, fell slightly as hawkish comments from Fed officials caused concerns over a US rate hike. KOSPI (point) 2,029.61 (Aug 1) → 1,994.79 (Aug 3, monthly low) → 2,056.24 (Aug 19, yearly high) → 2,034.65 (Aug 31)

Stock prices 2,400 (monthly average) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

KOSPI

KOSDAQ

(Closing rate)

Jul 2016

KOSPI Aug 2016

Jul 2016

KOSDAQ Aug 2016

Change1

Change1

Stock price index (points)

2,016.2

2,034.7

+18.5 (+0.9%)

706.2

663.7

-42.5 (-6.0%)

Market capitalization (trillion won)

1,283.2

1,296.9

+13.7 (+1.1%)

215.4

204.4

-11.0 (-5.1%)

4.2

4.4

+0.2 (+3.6%)

4.1

3.5

-0.6 (-14.3%)

33.84

34.41

+0.57 (+1.7%)

9.82

9.98

+0.16 (+1.6%)

Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)

1. Change from the end of the previous month in August 2016 Source: Korea Exchange

September 2016

27


9.2 Exchange rate

The dollar-won exchange rate fell to around 1,092 won in mid-August due to the weak dollar amid lower expectations for a US rate hike, S&P’s decision to upgrade Korea’s long-term sovereign credit rating and foreign investors’ net buying of Korean shares. The exchange rate, however, rebounded to wrap up the month at 1,114.8 won as Fed Chair Janet Yellen signaled a possible rate increase in the coming months. The 100 yen-won exchange rate fell slightly from 1,081.6 won to 1,080.7 won in August. The dollaryen exchange rate fell from 103.6 yen to 103.2 yen as Japan’s extra stimulus package did not meet investors’ expectations.

Foreign exchange rates

Source: Bank of Korea

1,800 (month-end, \) 1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Dollar-Won

2016.1

100 Yen-Won

(Closing rate)

2010 Dec

2011 Dec

2012 Dec

2013 Dec

2014 Dec

2015 Dec

Jul

2016 Aug

Change1

Dollar-Won

1,134.8

1,151.8

1,070.6

1,055.4

1,099.3

1,172.5

1,120.2

1,114.8

+0.5

100 Yen-Won

1,393.6

1,481.2

1,238.3

1,002.3

913.0

974.1

1,081.6

1,080.7

+0.1

1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year in August 2016 (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time. Source: Bank of Korea

9.3 Bond market

Treasury bond yields stayed nearly unchanged until mid-August, but rose toward the end of the month as expectations for a US rate hike rose following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on August 26 at the Jackson Hole central bankers’ symposium as well as hawkish comments from Fed vicechair Stanley Fischer.

28

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Interest rates

Source: Bank of Korea

10 (monthly average, yearly, %) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Overnight call rate (daily)

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

3-yr Treasury bond yield

2016.1

3-yr corporate bond yield

(Closing rate, %)

Call rate (1 day)

2010 Dec 2.51

2011 Dec 3.29

2012 Dec 2.77

2013 Dec 2.52

2014 Dec 2.03

2015 Dec 1.52

Jun 1.23

Jul 1.24

2016 Aug 1.25

Change1 +1

CD (91 days)

2.80

3.55

2.89

2.66

2.13

1.67

1.37

1.36

1.34

-1

Treasury bonds (3 yrs)

3.38

3.34

2.82

2.86

2.10

1.66

1.25

1.22

1.31

-3

Corporate bonds (3 yrs)

4.27

4.21

3.29

3.29

2.43

2.11

1.69

1.64

1.69

-5

Treasury bonds (5 yrs)

4.08

3.46

2.97

3.23

2.28

1.81

1.30

1.24

1.35

-6

1. Basis points, changes from the previous month in August 2016 Source: Bank of Korea

9.4 Money supply and money market

M2 (monthly average) in June increased 7.2 percent from a year earlier, a faster pace than the previous month. Private sector credit expanded as security investment by depository institutions increased, but the current account surplus fell. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

M1²

11.8

6.6

3.8

9.5

10.9

M2

8.7

4.2

5.2

4.8

LfÂł

8.2

5.3

7.8

6.9

2016

18.6

Apr 18.0

May 16.2

Jun 15.9

Jun1 730.2

6.6

8.6

7.0

6.7

7.2

2,333.6

7.0

9.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

3,221.8

1. Balance at end June 2016, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) Source: Bank of Korea

September 2016

29


Total money supply Source: Bank of Korea 40 (y-o-y, monthly average balance, %) 30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Reserve money

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

M1

2016.1

Lf

Bank deposits shifted to a decrease in July as instant access deposits fell by 10.9 trillion won due to seasonal factors such as fund withdrawals by corporations to pay value added taxes (VATs). Asset management company (AMC) deposits turned to an increase backed by money market funds (MMFs). MMFs increased 18.5 trillion won as corporations re-deposited funds they temporarily withdrew to improve their financial ratios at the end of the first half, and as the government deposited surplus funds.

Deposits in financial institutions

Source: Bank of Korea

60 (y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

(Change from the end of the previous period, trillion won)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Bank deposits

36.9

58.9

37.0

41.0

115.4

100.3

Apr -11.0

AMC deposits

-16.7

-16.6

18.8

17.7

42.4

44.4

7.4

1. Balance at end July 2016 Source: Bank of Korea

30

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

May 11.4

2016 Jun 14.3

Jul -1.8

Jul1 1,417.7

13.9

-4.6

23.3

485.8


10. Balance of payments

Korea’s current account (preliminary) in July posted a surplus of US $8.71 billion, staying in the black for 53 consecutive months. The goods account surplus decreased month-on-month from US $12.71 billion to US $10.81 billion. Growth in goods exports (y-o-y, %) -7.6 (Jun 2016) → -10.0 (Jul) Growth in goods imports (y-o-y, %) -10.1 (Jun 2016) → -15.1 (Jul) Export growth by item in July (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) -10.3 (total), -11.3 (steel), -2.6 (semiconductors), -14.6 (automobiles), -4.0 (mobile phones), -42.5 (vessels), -26.9 (petroleum products) Import growth by category in July (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) -13.6 (total), -18.4 (commodities), -8.6 (capital goods), -8.6 (consumer goods)

Current account balance

Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

15 (US$ billion)

10

5

0

-5

2006.1

2007.1

Goods account

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Services account

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Current account

The services account deficit expanded month-on-month from US $1.38 billion to US $1.53 billion, despite a decrease in the other businesses account deficit, due to an increase in the travel account deficit. Services account (US $ billion, Jun → Jul) -0.49 → -0.42 (manufacturing), -0.28 → -0.30 (transportation), -0.74 → -1.28 (travel), 0.74 → 0.77 (construction), 0.04 → 0.00 (intellectual property rights), -0.75 → -0.47 (other businesses)

September 2016

31


Travel balance

Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

4 (US $ billion) 3

2

1

-1

-2

-3

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Travel balance

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Travel revenue

2016.1

Travel payment

The primary income account surplus decreased from US $1.26 billion to US $0.05 billion as dividend income decreased. The secondary income account deficit rose from US $0.52 billion to US $0.62 billion.

(US $ billion)

2015

2014

Jul1 9.71

Q11 24.08

2016 Q21 Jun1 25.90 12.06

31.76

9.92

27.88

33.12

12.71

10.81

-4.67

-1.25

-4.17

-4.14

-1.38

-1.53

2.73

0.90

1.14

1.25

-1.90

1.26

0.05

-0.70

-1.58

-0.10

-0.88

-1.18

-0.52

-0.62

Annual

Annual1

Current account

84.37

105.87

Q11 22.44

Q21 27.92

29.11

Q41 26.41

- Goods balance

88.89

120.29

24.22

33.68

30.64

- Services balance

-3.68

-15.71

-4.39

-3.09

-3.56

- Primary income balance

4.15

5.90

3.83

-1.56

- Secondary income balance

-4.98

-4.61

-1.22

-1.11

Q31

Jul1 8.71

1. Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

The capital and financial account (preliminary) in July saw an outflow of US $9.39 billion. Capital & financial account balance* (US $ billion) 10.02 (Jul 2015) → 6.48 (Jan 2016) → 9.50 (Feb) → 12.24 (Mar) → 0.17 (Apr) → 8.93 (May) → 9.60 (Jun) → 9.39 (Jul) * Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows.

Net outflows of FDI decreased from US $1.48 billion a month earlier to US $0.95 billion as Korean FDI (up US $2.82 billion → up US $2.20 billion) slowed down at a faster pace than inbound FDI (up US $1.35 billion → up US $1.25 billion). Net outflows of portfolio investment fell from US $6.20 billion to US $0.09 billion, as foreign investment in Korean shares shifted to an increase (down US $2.22 billion → up US $4.53 billion), although Korean

32

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


investment in foreign shares expanded at a faster pace (up US $3.98 billion → up US $4.62 billion). Financial derivatives investment reversed from a net outflow of US $0.37 billion to a net inflow of US $0.48 billion. Net outflows of other investment increased from US $2.33 billion to US $6.86 billion. The current account surplus is expected to decrease in August as net exports fell to US $5.3 billion.

Capital & financial account balance

Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

15 (US$ billion) 10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Direct investment

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Portfolio investment

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Financial derivatives

2016.1

Capital & financial account

11. Prices

11.1 Consumer prices

Consumer prices in August rose 0.4 percent year-on-year and fell 0.1 percent month-on-month.

Consumer price inflation

(%)

2015

2016

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Year-on-Year

0.6

0.9

1.0

1.3

0.8

1.3

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.4

Month-on-Month

-0.2

0.0

-0.1

0.3

0.0

0.8

-0.3

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

-0.1

Source: Statistics Korea

September 2016

33


Consumer price inflation

Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)

7 (%) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)

2015.1

2016.1

Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)

Slower consumer price inflation in August was mainly due to a cut in electricity rates, which accelerated a drop in public utility prices (down 3.9% → down 12.6%). Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products rose at a faster pace (up 0.2% → up 1.0%) as the abnormally hot weather pushed up the prices of some vegetables.

Consumer price inflation in major sectors Jul (y-o-y, %)

0.7

Agricultural, livestock & fishery products 0.2

Aug (y-o-y, %) - Contribution (%p)

0.4 -

1.0 0.07

Total

Manufactured Oil products products -0.5 -8.9 -0.5 -0.16

-8.8 -0.37

Public utilities -3.9

Housing rents 2.5

Public services 1.0

Personal services 2.1

-12.6 -0.57

2.5 0.24

1.0 0.14

2.2 0.69

Source: Statistics Korea

Prices

Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)

16 (y-o-y, %) 12

8

4

0

-4

-8

2006.1

2007.1

Consumer price inflation

34

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Core inflation

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Producer price inflation


Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products rose 1.1 percent year-on-year, a slower pace than the previous month. Consumer prices excluding food and energy were up 1.7 percent, the same pace as the previous month. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2015

2016

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products

2.4

2.4

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.1

Consumer prices excluding food and energy

2.7

2.8

1.9

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.7

1.7

Source: Statistics Korea

Consumer prices for basic necessities fell 0.6 percent from a year earlier due to electricity rate cuts. Fresh food prices rose 2.8 percent year-on-year as vegetable prices were up amid unusually hot weather conditions. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2015 Consumer prices for basic necessities

Nov 0.1

Dec 0.6

Jan 0.2

Feb 0.9

Mar 0.4

Apr 0.5

2016 May 0.1

Jun 0.1

Jul 0.0

Aug -0.6

Fresh food prices

3.0

6.2

4.2

9.7

9.7

9.6

3.5

-1.7

-0.4

2.8

Source: Statistics Korea

11.2 International oil and commodity prices

International oil prices rose in August due to the weak dollar, a decrease in US oil inventories and expectations that oil producing countries could reach an agreement to coordinate oil production. Oil producers will discuss ways to cap production at a meeting in Algeria on September 26-28. Dubai crude (US $/barrel) 39.7 (1st week Aug) → 41.6 (2nd week) → 46.0 (3rd week) → 45.7 (4th week) → 44.2 (5th week)

(US $/barrel, period average)

2014

2016

2015

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Dubai crude

96.6

50.7

51.9

60.5

49.9

40.8

30.5

43.2

39.0

44.3

46.3

42.5

43.6

Brent crude

99.4

53.6

55.1

63.5

51.3

44.7

35.2

47.0

43.3

47.7

49.9

46.5

47.2

WTI crude

92.9

48.8

48.6

58.0

46.5

42.2

33.7

45.6

41.1

46.8

48.9

44.8

44.8

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

September 2016

35


International oil prices

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

160 (US $/B) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Dubai crude

WTI

Domestic gasoline prices fell in August as a decline in international oil prices was reflected with a time lag. Domestic gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,423.9 (1st week Aug) → 1,415.0 (2nd week) → 1,408.5 (3rd week) → 1,406.7 (4th week) → 1,408.2 (5th week) International gasoline prices (US $/barrel) 49.2 (3rd week Jul) → 46.8 (4th week) → 46.4 (1st week Aug) → 48.1 (2nd week) → 53.4 (3rd week) Dollar-won exchange rate (won) 1,137.1 (3rd week Jul) → 1,133.6 (4th week) → 1,113.4 (1st week Aug) → 1,103.4 (2nd week) → 1,100.3 (3rd week)

Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160

160 (thousand won/B)

(US $/B)

140

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20 2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)

36

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Dubai international prices (dollar, right)


(Won/liter, period average)

2014

2016

2015

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Gasoline prices

1,827

1,510

1,485

1,543

1,544

1,468

1,363

1,396

1,362

1,389

1,438

1,437

1,412

Diesel prices

1,638

1,300

1,313

1,344

1,309

1,233

1,121

1,168

1,121

1,158

1,225

1,228

1,207

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

International prices of wheat and corn fell due to an upward revision to the stock outlooks and higher estimates for land allocated to growing these crops. The International Grains Council (IGC) on August 25 revised up its forecast for global grain stocks (wheat and coarse grains) in 2016-17 from 488 million tons to 492 million tons. International grain price increases in August (monthly average, m-o-m, %) -3.1 (wheat), -5.9 (corn), -6.0 (soybean)

International copper prices fell as China’s imports of refined cooper decreased to a 17 month low of 251,000 tons in July. International aluminum prices rose as the supply shortage widened from a shortage of 331,000 tons in the previous year to a shortage of 479,000 tons in the first half of this year. Nonferrous metal price increases in August (monthly average, m-o-m, %) -2.1 (copper), 0.7 (aluminum), 0.7 (nickel), 3.4 (tin), 0.3 (lead)

International commodity prices

Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * C RB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 470

4000

430 390

3000

350 310

2000

270 230

1000

190 150 2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

CRB (left)

0

2016.1

Reuters Index (right)

(Period average)

2014 Annual Annual 1

Reuters Index (Sep 18,1931=100)

2016

2015 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2,523 2,328 2,368 2,394 2,287 2,269 2,115 2,250 2,161 2,222 2,361 2,374 2,444

1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS

September 2016

37


12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market

Housing prices nationwide rose 0.07 percent month-on-month in August. Housing prices rose 0.16 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, which includes Seoul (up 0.3%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.1%) and Incheon (up 0.1%).

Housing sales prices by region

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

3 (m-o-m, %)

2

1

0

-1

2009.1

7

2010.1

7

2011.1

Nationwide

7

2012.1

7

2013.1

7

2014.1

7

Seoul metropolitan area

7

2016.1

7

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Housing sales prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2015

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1.9

6.9

0.0

0.3

1.7

2016

Jul

Aug Annual May

Jun

Jul

Aug

3.5

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.03

0.04

0.04

0.07

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

Nationwide

2015.1

Seoul metropolitan area

-1.7

0.5

-3.0

-1.1

1.5

4.4

0.4

0.3

0.6

0.09

0.15

0.14

0.16

Seoul

-1.2

0.3

-2.9

-1.4

1.1

4.6

0.4

0.4

1.0

0.15

0.22

0.23

0.26

Gangnamš

-1.0

0.3

-3.5

-1.1

1.2

5.2

0.4

0.4

1.2

0.20

0.31

0.29

0.30

Gangbuk²

-1.4

0.3

-2.3

-1.7

1.1

3.9

0.3

0.4

0.8

0.09

0.13

0.17

0.21

Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

6.4

15.1

3.1

1.7

1.9

2.7

0.2

0.2

-0.1

-0.02 -0.05 -0.04 -0.01

1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

2. Northern Seoul

Housing prices fell 0.01 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, as they increased in the five metropolitan cities (up 0.1%) and fell in the eight provinces (down 0.1%).

38

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Housing price increases in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.4), Daegu (-0.2), Gwangju (-0.1), Daejeon (0.0), Ulsan (-0.1)

Housing rental prices nationwide rose 0.1 percent month-on-month in August. Rental prices increased 0.2 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and stayed stable in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Housing rental price increases in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Seocho (-0.2), Songpa (-0.1), Gangdong (-0.3), Mapo (0.4), Yangcheon (0.3)

Housing rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3 (m-o-m, %)

2

1

0

-1

-2

2009.1

7

2010.1

7

2001.1

7

Nationwide

2012.1

7

2013.1

7

2014.1

7

2015.1

Seoul metropolitan area

7

2016.1

7

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Housing rental prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2015

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2016

Jul

Aug Annual May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Nationwide

7.1

12.3

3.5

4.7

3.4

4.8

0.3

0.3

0.9

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Seoul metropolitan area

6.3

11.0

2.1

6.2

4.7

7.1

0.5

0.4

1.4

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Seoul

6.4

10.8

2.1

6.6

3.6

7.2

0.5

0.5

1.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

Gangnamš

7.6

11.1

2.4

6.7

3.3

7.9

0.6

0.4

1.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

Gangbuk²

5.1

10.6

1.8

6.4

3.8

6.5

0.5

0.5

1.4

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

9.2

14.5

4.6

3.3

2.2

2.8

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

2. Northern Seoul

There were 95,578 housing transactions in July, a 3.2 percent increase from a month earlier and a 13.6 percent decrease from a year ago (110,675).

September 2016

39


Monthly housing transactions

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

160 (thousands) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009.1

7

2010.1

7

2011.1

7

Nationwide

2012.1

7

2013.1

7

2014.1

7

Seoul metropolitan area

2015.1

7

2016.1

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Housing sales transactions 2011

2012

2013

(Thousands)

2014

Nationwide

82

1

61

1

71

2016

2015

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual 1

7

1

84

1

99

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 111

94

86

106

98

88

62

59

78

86

89

93

96

1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

12.2 Land market

Land prices nationwide rose 0.24 percent month-on-month in July. Land prices increased 0.25 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Seoul (up 0.28%) and Incheon (up 0.18%). Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.13 (Jan 2016) → 0.14 (Feb) → 0.18 (Mar) → 0.20 (Apr) → 0.21 (May) → 0.24 (Jun) → 0.25 (Jul)

Land prices rose 0.24 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Busan (up 0.34%), Jeju (up 0.39%) and North Chungcheong Province (up 0.17%). Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.24 (Jan 2016) → 0.22 (Feb) → 0.27 (Mar) → 0.24 (Apr) → 0.24 (May) → 0.25 (Jun) → 0.24 (Jul)

40

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Land prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2015

2014

2016 May

Jun

Jul

Nationwide

1.05

1.17

0.96

1.14

1.96

2.40

0.59

0.60

0.72

1.49

0.56

0.68

0.22

0.25

0.24

Seoul

0.53

0.97

0.38

1.21

2.66

2.69

0.69

0.69

0.72

1.62

0.57

0.76

0.26

0.28

0.28

Gyeonggi

1.49

1.47

1.04

0.91

1.24

1.73

0.41

0.43

0.52

1.17

0.37

0.58

0.18

0.22

0.22

Incheon

1.43

0.66

0.46

0.87

1.35

1.95

0.53

0.54

0.50

1.00

0.34

0.48

0.12

0.16

0.18

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

There were 258,000 land transactions in July, down 1.7 percent from the previous month and 11.1 percent from a year ago (290,000). Land transactions nationwide decreased month-on-month, led by Busan (down 12.4%), Ulsan (down 28.7%) and Daegu (down 21.5%), despite increases in Seoul (up 9.1%), Incheon (up 10.1%) and Sejong (up 47.8%). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 36.0 percent of total land transactions, recorded 93,000, down 4.4 percent month-on-month and 10.4 percent compared with a year ago (103,000).

Land transactions

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

500,000 (thousand m²)

450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Seoul metropolitan area

2015.1

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Land transactions 2010

2011

2016.1

(Land lots, thousands)

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Nationwide 187

208

170

187

220

257

290 241 229 263 259 274 207 191 248 245 253 262 258

Seoul

16

18

13

17

22

30

36

29

27

31

29

28

21

20

26

28

31

34

37

Gyeonggi

41

43

33

37

46

58

62

56

58

63

61

62

48

44

56

57

59

65

69

Incheon

8

10

8

8

10

12

15

13

12

14

13

12

8

8

10

12

13

13

15

1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation

September 2016

41


13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

Industrial output in July decreased 0.1 percent month-on-month and increased 3.2 percent year-on-year. Output rose month-on-month in mining & manufacturing (up 1.4%) and construction (up 1.3%), while fell in services (down 0.7%) and public administration (down 3.0%).

Index of all industry production 20

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(%)

15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Index of all industry production (m-o-m)

2015.1

2016.1

Index of all industry production (y-o-y)

2015 Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May1

Jun1

Jul1

1.5 2.8

-1.4 1.7

0.7 2.5

0.7 2.4

-0.7 0.8

2.0 5.0

0.6 4.8

-0.1 3.2

Coincident composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)

119.4 0.3

119.3 -0.1

119.4 0.1

119.5 0.1

119.8 0.3

120.4 0.5

121.0 0.5

121.8 0.7

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p)

100.6 -0.1

100.3 -0.3

100.2 -0.1

100.0 -0.2

100.0 0.0

100.2 0.2

100.5 0.3

100.9 0.4

Leading composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)

123.2 0.2

123.4 0.2

123.5 0.1

123.9 0.3

124.5 0.5

124.9 0.3

125.2 0.2

125.8 0.5

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p)

100.8 -0.1

100.5 -0.3

100.3 -0.2

100.3 0.0

100.4 0.1

100.4 0.0

100.3 -0.1

100.4 0.1

Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)

2016

1. Preliminary

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.4 points month-on-month to 100.9. Six components of the coincident composite index, such as the value of construction completed, mining & manufacturing production, imports and domestic shipments, increased, while retail sales decreased.

42

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends


Components of the coincident composite index in July (m-o-m) value of construction completed (3.3%), mining & manufacturing production (1.2%), imports (1.1%), domestic shipments (0.6%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.4%), service output (0.3%), retail sales (-0.2%)

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

110 (points)

100

90

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.1 points month-on-month to 100.4. Five components of the leading composite index, including the value of construction orders received, the inventory circulation indicator and the ratio of job openings to job seekers, were up, while three others, such as the consumer expectations index, the ratio of export to import prices and spreads between long & short term interest rates, were down. Components of the leading composite index in July (m-o-m) value of construction orders received (8.5%), inventory circulation indicator (1.6%p), ratio of job openings to job seekers (1.4%p), domestic shipments of machinery (0.3%), KOSPI (0.1%), consumer expectations index (-0.7p), ratio of export to import prices (-0.4%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (0.02%p)

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

110 (points)

100

90

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

September 2016

43


Policy Issue

2017 budget proposal


2017 Budget Proposal 2017 Budget to Focus on Creating Jobs and Boosting Economy

The 2017 budget proposal promotes both expansionary policies and mid-term fiscal soundness. Total expenditures will be increased by 14.3 trillion won, or 3.7 percent, compared with the 2016 budget, and fiscal balance and national debt will improve compared with the 2015-2019 fiscal management plan. A total of 400.7 trillion won will be spent to successfully deal with economic and social changes and internal and external risks, improve people’s livelihoods, increase birth rates, and enhance national security. The 2016-2020 fiscal management plan is drawn up to bolster up growth and job creation, as well as to ensure fiscal soundness.

I. 2017 budget proposal 1. Key policies - Successfully deal with risks arising from internal and external uncertainties, and prepare for mid- to longterm changes, in particular demographic changes and industrial restructuring - Help the economy add jobs and maintain growth momentum: The government will work to make its job creation investment most efficient, while helping exporters and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) increase competitiveness, promoting local economies and supporting the development of future growth engines. - Improve people’s livelihoods and ensure national security: The government will strengthen support to raise birth rates and expand the welfare system tailored to specific needs, while working to make the society more secure. - Work to ensure fiscal sustainability: The government will increase budget spending efficiency by restructuring the current discretionary spending system and by getting rid of wasteful spending on overlapping or similar projects. - Adopt national expenditure rules and require the public sector to draw up their own plans to improve financial soundness1

1. T he legislation of the act to require the public sector to work on improving fiscal soundness was announced in August 2016.

September 2016

45


2. Key features (Total revenues) The government revenues are projected to increase 6.0 percent compared with the previous year, backed by recovering consumption and lively asset markets. (Total expenditures) The total government expenditures will rise 3.7 percent from the previous year, the level at which the country can support economic recovery and job creation while maintaining fiscal soundness. (trillion won)

2016 budget (A)

2017 budget proposal (B)

Total government revenues

391.2

414.5

- Tax revenue

222.9

Total government expenditures

386.4

Change (B-A)

%

23.3 18.8

6.0

241.8 400.7

14.3

3.7

8.4

(Fiscal balance) Deficits in the consolidated fiscal balance will improve by 0.3 percentage points compared with the 2015-2019 fiscal management plan, from 2.0 percent to GDP to 1.7 percent. (Government debt) Government debt is expected to decline by 0.6 percentage points compared with the 2015-2019 fiscal management plan, from 41.0 percent to GDP to 40.4 percent, as debt repayment will be made with increases in tax revenues and government budget surpluses. (trillion won)

2016 budget (A)

2017 2015-2019 plan

Budget proposal (B)

Change (B-A)

Consolidated fiscal balance

-36.9

8.8

(-2.3)¹

-33.1 (-2.0)

-28.0

(% to GDP)

(-1.7)

(-0.3%p)

Government debt

644.9

692.9

682.7

37.8

(% to GDP)

(40.1)²

(41.0)

(40.4)

(-0.6%p)

1. -2.4 percent to GDP according to the supplementary budget 2. 39.3 percent to GDP according to the supplementary budget

Tax expenditures Tax expenditures have continued to decline for the last three years, and are projected to decline in 2016 and 2017 as the tax expenditures ratio2 is estimated to decrease to below 14 percent3, the ceiling calculated according to the National Fiscal Act4. Tax expenditures are expected to reach 36.5 trillion won and 37.0 trillion won, respectively, in 2016 and 2017. 2. The ratio of total tax expenditures to (total tax revenues + total tax expenditures) 3. Tax expenditures ratios: 14.3 (2013) → 14.3 (2014) → 14.1 (2015) → 13.6* (2016) → 13.3* (2017) * estimates 4. Average tax expenditures ratio for the last three years + 0.5%p

46

Policy Issue


Budgets by area Social expenditures in 2017 will focus on raising birthrates and improving people’s livelihoods, while industrial expenditures will focus on developing future growth engines and implementing performancebased spending to increase efficiency.

Budgets by area

Total expenditures 1. Health, welfare, employment 2. Education - Grant to local education governments 3. Culture, sports, tourism 4. Environment

(trillion won)

Change

2016 budget (A)

2017 budget proposal (B)

(B-A)

%

386.4

400.7

14.3

3.7

123.4

130.0

6.6

5.3

53.2

56.4

3.3

6.1

41.2

45.9

4.7

11.4

6.6

7.1

0.5

6.9

6.9

6.9

0.0

0.1

5. R&D

19.1

19.4

0.3

1.8

6. Industry, SME, energy

16.3

15.9

-0.3

-2.0

7. SOC

23.7

21.8

-1.9

-8.2

8. Agriculture, forestry, fishery, food

19.4

19.5

0.1

0.6

9. National defense

38.8

40.3

1.5

4.0

10. Diplomacy, reunification

4.7

4.6

-0.1

-1.5

11. Social order, safety

17.5

18.0

0.5

3.1

12. Public administration, local governments - Grant to local government

59.5 36.1

63.9 40.6

4.4 4.5

7.4 12.5

3. Budget proposal by initiative Creating jobs for the future generation 1) Increase investment in job creation while enhancing spending efficiency - Increase job creation budgets by 10.7 percent from 15.8 trillion won to 17.5 trillion won, while maximizing spending efficiency through performance-based budgeting, for which the government will refer to Korea Development Institute’s (KDI) assessment of the current job creation projects 2) Create jobs for young adults - Promote job creation in industries favored by young adults, such as game, VR and technology convergence in IoT5 - Launch a startup package worth 50 billion won as well as university startup funds worth 15 billion won, while increasing the number of universities providing startup programs from 34 to 40, to encourage young adults to establish their own businesses

5. B udget increases (billion won): Game (45.1 → 63.5), VR (19.2, newly allocated), IoT (12.0 → 27.6)

September 2016

47


- Newly provide support for university education programs designed to meet demand from industries, worth 96.8 billion won, while increasing the number of companies with work-study programs from 6,300 to 10,000 3) Increase employment support tailored to women and the elderly - Increase employment support given to companies for retaining female employees returning from maternity leave from 200,000 won per employee to 300,000 won, and increase support for substitute jobs that fill maternity leaves from 7,000 jobs to 10,000 - Work with companies to increase jobs for the elderly by 50,000 4) Strengthen public employment services - Increase the number of government employment centers from 70 to 100, and build an employment portal

Developing new growth engines 1) Increase investment in developing new growth engines - Launch nine R&D projects, worth 30 billion won, which require government-wide cooperation and are critical to further developing the nation’s core technologies - Invest in region-specific industries, a total of 3.1 trillion won in 2017-2019, in order to foster new and high value added industries - Increase the number of smart factories from 1,245 to 1,750, and expand high-risk investment in pharmaceutical R&Ds from 215.4 billion won to 247.1 billion won - Strengthen support for clean energy development, including fuel cells, from 453.6 billion won to 584.4 billion won, as well as support for the development of the agricultural and fishery industries into a high value added one, the 6th industrialization 2) Foster culture - Build infrastructure to promote Korean culture, such as a large culture park and an arena for K-pop performances - Promote the creation of cultural contents, in particular operas or ballets that use Korean stories - Develop packaged tours to promote local tourism

Increasing competitiveness of SMEs, startups and local economies 1) Foster exporters - Newly invest 12 billion won in order to find exporters with excellent potential for exploring new markets - Newly invest 9.2 trillion won to help diversify export markets for agricultural products 2) Support SMEs and small merchants - Expand investment in the Tech Incubator Program for Startups from 56 billion won to 77 billion won - Launch new R&D projects to help globally renowned Korean medium-sized enterprises, and expand World Class 300, a project to grow SMEs and medium-sized leading enterprises to be global players, from 85.3 billion won to 113.7 billion won

48

Policy Issue


- Expand financial support for small merchants, such as through guarantees and loans 3) Boost local economies - Increase SOC investments and refurbish fresh water infrastructure - Increase education grants to local governments

Raising birthrates and strengthening the welfare programs tailored to specific needs 1) Raise birthrates - Increase affordable housing for the newly married and young adults - Abolish income ceilings for fertility treatment support and increase the amount of the support for low income families - Strengthen daycare support for working couples: Expand support for all day daycare to kids younger than two years, and increase support for opening daycare centers at SME work places - Increase childcare support for single parents, and expand the coverage of the support to children younger than 15 years by 2019 2) Strengthen tailored welfare programs - Kids, students: Invest to prevent child-abuse and expand educational opportunities, job training and consultation, extend the third-child-and-onwards education support to fourth graders, and increase the work and study scholarship given to university students - Middle aged: Increase the supply of rental housing affordable to low income families and continue to ease the burden of medical costs not covered by the national health insurance system - Elderly: Increase the number of basic old age pension recipients from 4.80 million to 4.98 million, while expanding senior care service recipients by 7,000 - Veterans: Increase veterans allowance and construct more veteran sanatoriums

Enhancing national defense capabilities and improving public safety 1) Enhance national defense capabilities and improve the welfare of armed forces - Invest to enhance military capabilities: Support the establishment of Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) and the development of Korean fighter planes - Invest to improve the welfare of armed forces: Soldiers to be paid 195,000 won a month in 2017, an increase from 98,000 in 2012, while budgets are increased for better meals and improved living conditions 2) Improve public safety and quality of life - Build up a system for transmitting images real-time, increase safety patrols, and replace old vehicles used for public safety purposes - Increase investment from 82.4 billion won to 180.2 billion won to ensure that public facilities are earthquake proof - Help reduce fine dust by increasing electric car subsidies, from 8,000 cars to 15,000 cars, hybrid car subsidies, from 33,000 cars to 60,000 cars, and subsidies for declaring gasoline vehicles out of use, from 38,000 cars to 60,000 cars, as well as by improving the air quality observation system

September 2016

49


Improving spending efficiency 1) Lower discretionary spending - Have ministries to voluntarily reduce their discretionary spending by about 10 percent in order to prepare for the future, including low birth and an aged society - Resources saved by the discretionary spending cut to be invested in creating jobs, developing future growth engines and operating new projects 2) Merge overlapping and similar projects - A total of 689 projects have been merged, exceeding the target in the 3 Year Plan for Economic Innovation (600) - Additionally merge 205 projects in 2017, which are under initiatives such as multicultural family support, university R&D support, SME support and job creation 3) Thoroughly evaluate fiscal programs - Require new support programs, if they are worth more than 10 billion won, to go through a screening process, while requiring existing programs, if they last for more than for three years, to go through evaluation for extension - Restructure underperforming fiscal programs

II. 2016-2020 national fiscal management plan 1. Key policies Fiscal resources management will be focused on growth and jobs in order to prepare for demographic changes, rising welfare spending and industrial restructuring. - Prepare for structural changes in the economy due to demographic changes, the 4th industrial revolution and restructuring - Restructure spending and reinvest saved resources in developing future growth engines - Promote job creation by encouraging investment, and reform employment support to better reflect demand Mid- to long-term fiscal soundness will be improved for the country to be well prepared for future fiscal risks. - Enact a Fiscal Soundness Act to require all public entities to work on improving fiscal soundness - Establish rules which regulate government debt and fiscal balance to effectively manage fiscal resources - Pursue financial soundness in social insurance programs by integrating systems that estimate the financial balance of social insurance programs The government will continue to improve spending efficiency. - Increase local government spending efficiency and their responsibility for fiscal soundness

50

Policy Issue


- Avoid wasteful spending by carrying out thorough screening and comprehensive assessment, as well as by establishing an integrated system to efficiently manage government support programs - Restructure public institutions: Adjust overlapping or similar functions between public firms and open their markets to the private sector in line with changes in the economy and social demand, while continuing to improve the management efficiency of public institutions

2. Mid-term fiscal outlook and fiscal management goals - Total government revenues are projected to increase at an average of 5.0 percent every year in 2016-2020. - Total government expenditures will be managed to increase at an average of 3.5 percent every year in 2016-2020. Mid-term outlook for government revenues and expenditures

(trillion won)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Annual growth (%)

Total government revenues

391.2

414.5

436.0

456.3

476.4

5.0

- Tax revenues

222.9

241.8

252.1

264.5

277.2

5.6

Total government expenditures

386.4

400.7

414.3

428.4

443.0

3.5

(growth, %)

(2.9)

(3.7)

(3.4)

(3.4)

(3.4)

-

- The consolidated fiscal balance minus social security funds will gradually improve in 2016-2020. - Government debt will be managed at around 40 percent to GDP. Mid-term outlook for fiscal balance and government debt Consolidate fiscal balance minus social security

(trillion won)

20161

2017

2018

2019

2020

-39.1

-28.1

-25.0

-23.2

-20.4

(% to GDP)

(-2.4)

(-1.7)

(-1.4)

(-1.2)

(-1.0)

Government debt

637.8

682.7

722.5

756.8

793.5

(% to GDP)

(39.3)

(40.4)

(40.9)

(40.7)

(40.7)

1. The 2016 figures involve the supplementary budget

3. Managing Korea’s fiscal position 1) Enact laws to improve fiscal soundness - Adopt laws to found a basis for improving fiscal soundness, such as rules regulating the management of government debt and consolidated fiscal balance minus social security funds - Found a legal basis to require public sector entities, including local governments, to draw up plans for improving fiscal soundness - Set up rules regulating how to estimate a long-term fiscal outlook, including rules concerning procedures, methods and terms

September 2016

51


2) Increase spending efficiency - Carefully examine the effect of fiscal projects before launching, thoroughly assess the performance of projects, and decide on the extension of support programs based on detailed assessment of spending efficiency - Continue to work on merging overlapping or similar projects, and assess the outcomes of the mergers - Encourage the private sector to participate in public infrastructure projects by reducing risks taken by the private sector 3) Ensure revenue increase - Reform tax reductions and exemptions that are evaluated to be no longer effective, while making tax breaks be limited to those aimed at promoting job creation, boosting the economy and supporting working classes, if they are approved through a screening process - Broaden the tax base: Avoid tax fraud by tightly regulating the issuance of cash payment receipts and the imposing of VAT on buyers, work on broadening the capital gains tax base and revising VAT exemption 4) Strengthen fiscal management - Improve the management of the seven social insurance programs: Run a Policy Committee on the 7 Social Insurance Programs to increase the financial soundness of the programs and regularly examine their management efficiency - Continue to work on the restructuring of public institutions, focusing on boosting productivity: Plans to restructure public institutions in the areas of healthcare, policy financing and industrial development will be prepared by the first half of 2017. - Avoid benefit fraud by building an integrated information system to efficiently manage treasury grantsin-aid - Carry out a comprehensive assessment of fiscal projects, instead of assessing by sector, such as an assessment of the general account, R&D projects and regional projects, and reflect the outcome in the budget 2016-2020 budget allocation plans by area Total expenditures (growth, %) Health, welfare, employment Education Culture, sports, tourism Environment R&D Industry, SME, energy SOC Agriculture, forestry, fishery, food National defense Diplomacy, reunification Social order, safety Public administration, local governments

52

Policy Issue

(trillion won)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Annual growth (%)

386.4 (2.9) 123.4 53.2 6.6 6.9 19.1 16.3 23.7 19.4 38.8 4.7 17.5

400.7 (3.7) 130.0 56.4 7.1 6.9 19.4 15.9 21.8 19.5 40.3 4.6 18.0

414.3 (3.4) 135.8 58.8 8.1 6.8 19.7 15.7 20.3 19.4 41.8 4.7 18.7

428.4 (3.4) 141.6 61.0 8.4 6.7 19.9 15.4 19.3 19.3 43.2 4.9 19.4

443.0 (3.4) 147.7 63.4 8.6 6.7 20.2 15.2 18.5 19.3 44.7 5.0 20.1

3.5 4.6 4.5 6.8 -0.6 1.5 -1.7 -6.0 -0.2 3.6 1.7 3.5

59.5

63.9

66.9

69.6

73.5

5.4


Economic News Briefing

Government discusses impact of Hanjin Shipping’s filing for court receivership and subsequent measures Korea Sales Festa starts September 29 Korea launches an open platform for fintech Regulations on free economic zones to be eased External debt rises to US $391.8 bn in Q2 Korea grows 0.8% in Q2 (preliminary)


Government discusses impact of Hanjin Shipping’s filing for court receivership and subsequent measures The 4th Ministerial Meeting on Industrial Restructuring was held on September 7, where ways to absorb shocks following Hanjin Shipping’s filing for court receivership was the main topic of discussion. Deputy Prime Minister Yoo Il Ho emphasized close cooperation between the government and private entities involved in the Hanjin Shipping restructuring and showed firm determination to upgrade the country’s shipping sector by successfully restructuring the industry. The Deputy Prime Minister stated that the government will launch support programs for those affected by the bankruptcy. The government will provide emergency financial support for SME exporters, give companies support for retaining employees in order to prevent large-scale layoffs in the affected industries, and run programs for those losing jobs, which cover payment of delayed wages and reemployment programs. Deputy Prime Minister Yoo requested that all the parties involved, such as Hanjin Shipping and its parent company, creditors and shippers, be more cooperative in order to successfully ride out the hardship that the shipping industry is currently facing.

Korea Sales Festa starts September 29 Korea Sales Festa was announced at the 14th Ministerial Meeting on the Economy on September 21. Korea Sales Festa, a sales event equivalent to last year’s Korean Black Friday, kicks off on September 29. The annual sales event will be expanded this year to include major manufacturers, social commerce companies and online shopping malls, in addition to wholesale and retail distributors. The government will actively promote Korea Sales Festa and help attract foreign tourists to the event. Foreign visitors will be offered special discount rates on accomodations and transportation during the whole month of October.

Korea launches an open platform for fintech The Financial Services Commission (FSC) launched on August 30 an open platform for fintech developers, the first of its kind in the world. The fintech open platform will significantly reduce the time needed to develop fintech applications. Fintech firms had to sign different contracts with different commercial banks in order to develop online banking services, since the programs used in different banks were incompatible. The open platform will make it possible for fintech firms to develop highly compatible applications by simply downloading open source software.

54

Economic News Briefing


Regulations on free economic zones to be eased The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced on August 29 measures to promote the eight free economic zones (FEZs). The eight FEZs will expand their support to local firms, new industries, foreign medical institutions and foreign colleges, in addition to some major industries the government designated and foreign-invested enterprises. The new measures include support for promoting 27 region-specific industries, including marine tourism, new energy technology and bio-based materials, as well as developing 11 new industries, including future cars, robots and next generation software and online security. Foreign vocational colleges and medical institutions will find it easier to open branches in the FEZs due to eased regulations. On top of that, foreign-invested companies will be able to make 50 year land lease contracts for industrial use, while Korean companies will be allowed to build production facilities in FEZs located in the Seoul metropolitan area.

External debt rises to US $391.8 bn in Q2 Korea’s external debt amounted to US $391.8 billion as of the end of June 2016, an increase of US $2.5 billion from the previous quarter. Short-term debt increased US $2.7 billion quarter-on-quarter to US $106.8 billion, as borrowings by banks rose even though foreigners’ bond investment decreased. Long-term debt was down US $0.2 billion to US $285.0 billion, led by a decrease in foreigners’ investment in Korean bonds. (US $ billion)

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Change

Dec

Dec

Dec

Dec (A)

Mar (B)

Jun (C)

(C-B)

(C-A)

Total debt

408.9

423.5

424.4

395.4

389.3

391.8

2.5

-3.6

Short-term

128.0

111.8

116.4

107.1

104.1

106.8

2.7

-0.4

Long-term

281.0

311.7

308.0

288.3

285.2

285.0

-0.2

-3.3

External debt soundness indicators remain stable, as the ratio of short-term external debt to total external debt stayed low at 27.3 percent and the ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves remained low relative to previous quarters at 28.9 percent, although both indicators slightly rose quarteron-quarter, up 0.5 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively. Solvency improved as net foreign assets in debt instruments (total external assets in debt instruments minus total external debt) increased by US $16.3 billion to a record high of US $357.8 billion.

September 2016

55


Korea grows 0.8% in Q2 (preliminary) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2016, according to preliminary data released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) on September 2. Both the quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year figures were revised up 0.1 percentage points from the advanced estimates that were released on July 26. On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fisheries contracted 6.6 percent in the second quarter of 2016 compared to the previous quarter. Manufacturing grew 1.2 percent, led by petroleum & coal and chemical products, while construction grew 1.0 percent, led by residential housing construction. Services were up 0.6 percent, as gains in wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, cultural & sports services and other services offset declines in transportation services and real estate & renting. On the expenditure side, private consumption rose 1.0 percent due to increasing sales of durable goods such as automobiles, while facility investment grew 2.8 percent due to strong transportation equipment investment. Construction investment was up 3.1 percent, led by building construction, and intellectual property investment rose 1.5 percent, led by software investment. Exports rose 1.1 percent, led by semiconductors, petroleum and chemical products, while imports rose 2.1 percent, led by crude oil and automobiles. GDP by production and expenditure*

(Percentage change from previous period) 1

2014

20161

2015

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

GDP

1.1 (3.9)2

0.6 (3.5)2

0.7 (3.4)2

0.3 (2.7)2

0.8 (2.4)2

0.4 (2.2)2

1.2 (2.8)2

0.7 (3.1)2

0.5 (2.8)2

0.8 (3.3)2

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

-1.6

-0.4

1.6

1.7

3.7

-11.0

4.7

-2.6

6.5

-6.6

Manufacturing

1.8

1.0

-0.7

-0.2

0.4

0.9

0.4

0.7

-0.2

1.2

Construction

1.9

0.1

-0.2

-2.1

1.8

-0.1

5.5

0.7

4.8

1.0

Services3

0.9

0.4

1.2

0.7

0.7

0.2

1.1

0.7

0.5

0.6

Private consumption

0.4

-0.3

0.7

0.3

0.8

-0.1

1.1

1.4

-0.2

1.0

Government consumption

0.5

0.8

1.9

0.1

0.5

0.9

1.3

1.0

1.3

0.1

Facility investment

-1.1

1.3

0.3

3.5

0.5

0.8

1.8

0.5

-7.4

2.8

Construction investment

3.3

1.1

-0.8

-4.9

5.5

1.8

3.3

-2.4

6.8

3.1

Intellectual property investment

2.0

0.0

0.0

-0.1

1.7

-0.6

0.3

0.7

0.3

1.5

Exports

0.8

1.1

-1.5

0.3

0.6

-0.1

-0.3

2.1

-1.1

1.1

Imports

-1.6

0.8

-0.1

0.4

0.9

0.4

1.4

3.2

-3.1

2.1

*At 2010 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year (original data) 3. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.

56

Economic News Briefing


Statistical Appendices

01. National accounts 02. Production, shipment and inventory 03. Production capacity and operation ratio 04. Consumer goods sales index 05. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 06. Machinery orders received and facility investment index 07. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 08. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 09. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates


1. National accounts Period

Agri., fores. & fisheries

Manufacturing

Final consumption expenditure

Gross fixed capital formation Construction

Facilities

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p

0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3 2.6

3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 3.1 3.6 -1.5

-0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.6 3.5 1.3

1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4

0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 3.3 3.4 3.8

3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 5.5 1.1 3.9

-7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -0.8 6.0 5.3

2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6

7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4

8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3

4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4

1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0

-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3

7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0

2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8

2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0

-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4

-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5

-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8

1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1

-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5

2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

7.3 7.4 5.4 6.0

0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7

16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9

6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4

12.0 6.8 3.8 1.3

1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.1

27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

4.9 3.6 3.3 3.0

-9.3 -2.5 -5.8 7.1

11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4

3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7

-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3

-8.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0

8.3 8.3 3.4 -0.9

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.5 2.4 2.1 2.2

0.1 -1.8 0.0 -1.3

2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0

2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7

6.2 -2.3 -0.9 -3.6

-0.2 -5.3 -2.6 -6.4

11.0 -1.9 -4.2 -3.8

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.1 2.7 3.2 3.5

-1.2 0.1 4.3 7.0

2.7 3.6 3.8 4.2

1.5 2.2 2.4 2.6

-3.2 4.2 4.9 6.5

1.2 8.9 7.5 3.5

-12.3 -3.2 2.3 11.7

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

3.9 3.5 3.4 2.7

5.9 4.5 2.7 2.4

4.7 4.7 3.1 1.8

2.9 1.8 2.0 1.6

6.1 3.6 3.6 0.8

4.5 0.3 2.3 -1.7

7.4 7.9 4.4 4.4

2015pⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.4 2.2 2.8 3.1

7.5 -4.0 -0.8 -5.0

0.6 0.5 1.5 2.4

1.9 2.1 2.4 3.4

2.6 2.2 5.1 5.4

0.9 1.0 5.6 7.5

5.8 5.1 6.7 3.9

2016pⅠ Ⅱ

2.8 3.3

-2.4 1.5

1.9 2.2

2.7 3.4

3.0 5.3

9.6 10.8

-4.5 -2.7

p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

58

(year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)

Real GDP

Statistical Appendices


2. Production, shipment and inventory Period

Production index*

Shipment index*

y-o-y change (%)

Inventory index*

y-o-y change (%)

(constant prices, 2010=100)

Service production index

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2013 2014 2015

108.2 108.4 107.7

0.7 0.2 -0.6

108.1 108.0 107.8

0.8 -0.1 -0.2

130.7 127.4 131.2

4.4 -2.5 3.0

106.4 108.9 112.0

1.5 2.3 2.8

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.9 109.8 105.6 111.3

0.8 0.5 1.2 -1.5

106.6 109.3 104.9 111.3

0.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.8

129.6 128.2 129.0 127.4

5.3 7.6 3.6 -2.5

105.4 108.6 108.5 113.1

2.1 1.7 2.7 2.8

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

105.7 108.4 105.5 111.2

-1.1 -1.3 -0.1 -0.1

106.0 108.1 105.8 111.2

-0.6 -1.1 0.9 -0.1

132.2 134.0 137.7 131.2

2.0 4.5 6.7 3.0

108.2 111.5 111.6 116.8

2.7 2.7 2.9 3.3

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱp

105.5 109.5

-0.2 1.0

105.2 109.5

-0.8 1.3

136.1 131.1

3.0 -2.2

111.2 115.6

2.8 3.7

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

106.5 101.2 113.0 112.3 108.5 108.6 112.5 101.2 103.2 110.1 108.7 115.0

-4.2 4.0 3.1 2.6 -1.9 0.7 4.2 -2.6 2.1 -2.8 -3.1 1.4

105.4 101.4 113.1 111.1 108.7 108.1 109.6 101.7 103.4 109.4 109.5 115.1

-4.2 3.3 2.6 1.6 -1.5 -0.5 2.3 -3.1 2.0 -2.8 -1.7 2.2

131.6 128.8 129.6 130.7 129.6 128.2 132.6 129.9 129.0 130.0 129.2 127.4

2.3 3.4 5.3 8.3 6.5 7.6 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.9 0.1 -2.5

104.8 101.9 109.6 107.1 109.0 109.8 108.9 108.1 108.5 110.8 109.9 118.7

2.3 1.4 2.7 1.4 1.2 2.6 3.1 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.3 3.5

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

108.1 96.0 113.1 109.8 105.2 110.3 108.7 101.4 106.3 112.4 108.5 112.6

1.5 -5.1 0.1 -2.2 -3.0 1.6 -3.4 0.2 3.0 2.1 -0.2 -2.1

108.1 96.6 113.2 109.6 105.4 109.2 107.5 102.1 107.7 112.6 108.4 112.7

2.6 -4.7 0.1 -1.4 -3.0 1.0 -1.9 0.4 4.2 2.9 -1.0 -2.1

131.3 131.9 132.2 133.7 133.0 134.0 137.1 136.8 137.7 136.1 136.2 131.2

-0.2 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.6 4.5 3.4 5.3 6.7 4.7 5.4 3.0

106.9 104.7 113.0 111.7 111.5 111.4 111.7 110.6 112.6 114.1 113.2 123.1

2.0 2.7 3.1 4.3 2.3 1.5 2.6 2.3 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.7

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6p 7p

105.7 98.2 112.5 107.1 110.1 111.2 110.4

-2.2 2.3 -0.5 -2.5 4.7 0.8 1.6

103.9 97.5 114.2 108.0 109.5 111.0 108.4

-3.9 0.9 0.9 -1.5 3.9 1.6 0.8

136.9 136.6 136.1 132.4 133.5 131.1 133.4

4.3 3.6 3.0 -1.0 0.4 -2.2 -2.7

110.1 107.6 115.8 113.9 115.6 117.4 114.7

3.0 2.8 2.5 2.0 3.7 5.4 2.7

* Including mining, manufacturing, electricity & gas and water industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

September 2016

59


3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period

Production capacity index* (2010=100) y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Average operation ratio* (%)

2013 2014 2015

108.6 110.4 111.7

1.6 1.7 1.2

95.1 94.3 92.1

-2.5 -0.8 -2.3

76.5 76.2 74.3

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

109.7 109.9 110.7 111.2

1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7

92.9 96.8 91.5 95.8

-0.9 -1.1 0.8 -2.5

77.2 76.3 75.9 75.2

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

111.5 111.6 111.7 112.0

1.6 1.5 0.9 0.7

90.0 94.9 89.8 93.8

-3.1 -2.0 -1.9 -2.1

74.3 74.3 74.9 73.6

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱp

112.0 112.0

0.4 0.4

88.6 92.1

-1.6 -3.0

73.2 72.2

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

109.8 109.6 109.7 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.7 111.0 111.1 111.1 111.3

1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6

91.9 87.6 99.1 99.7 95.6 95.1 98.7 86.8 89.0 95.9 94.0 97.6

-7.1 3.2 2.0 1.8 -3.8 -1.2 4.3 -4.3 2.3 -3.8 -4.3 0.7

77.9 76.1 77.7 77.5 75.1 76.3 77.7 74.8 75.1 74.2 74.8 76.7

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

111.5 111.3 111.8 111.5 111.6 111.7 111.5 111.5 112.1 112.1 112.0 111.9

1.5 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5

92.8 81.0 96.3 95.8 91.8 97.1 94.7 86.0 88.8 95.4 91.8 94.2

1.0 -7.5 -2.8 -3.9 -4.0 2.1 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.5 -2.3 -3.5

73.9 74.7 74.2 74.4 73.5 75.0 74.4 75.4 74.9 74.0 73.1 73.8

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6p 7p

111.8 111.9 112.2 112.1 112.0 111.9 112.0

0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4

89.0 81.2 95.6 90.1 92.8 93.3 92.2

-4.1 0.2 -0.7 -5.9 1.1 -3.9 -2.6

72.3 73.5 73.8 71.3 73.1 72.2 73.8

* Manufacturing industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

60

Operation ratio index* (2010=100)

Statistical Appendices


4. Consumer goods sales index

(constant prices, 2010=100)

Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods

Period

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Nondurable goods

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2013 2014 2015

107.9 110.1 114.4

0.7 2.0 3.9

116.7 122.7 135.2

0.3 5.1 10.2

106.1 105.3 104.0

2.1 -0.8 -1.2

104.7 106.4 109.1

0.4 1.6 2.5

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.5 109.0 109.3 115.7

2.6 1.2 2.0 2.4

117.4 121.2 123.4 128.6

5.7 2.3 5.5 6.9

100.1 104.6 96.0 120.5

-2.0 -2.5 1.2 0.5

104.3 105.2 108.6 107.5

3.1 2.2 0.6 0.8

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

108.8 112.7 113.2 122.8

2.2 3.4 3.6 6.1

126.7 132.0 132.9 149.3

7.9 8.9 7.7 16.1

97.9 103.2 92.7 122.3

-2.2 -1.3 -3.4 1.5

105.1 107.7 112.9 110.7

0.8 2.4 4.0 3.0

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱp

113.8 119.6

4.6 6.1

133.8 146.7

5.6 11.1

100.5 107.9

2.7 4.6

110.2 112.2

4.9 4.2

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

110.5 99.4 109.7 106.1 112.5 108.4 110.6 107.7 109.7 111.7 114.7 120.6

5.6 -0.1 2.2 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 3.1 1.8 0.4 1.3 5.2

116.4 117.1 118.7 114.5 121.7 127.4 131.3 118.5 120.5 118.9 128.8 138.1

3.6 10.5 3.3 -0.7 1.6 5.9 2.9 1.9 12.6 -1.4 7.2 15.0

100.5 91.8 107.9 105.6 111.5 96.8 95.5 91.3 101.3 115.7 120.5 125.2

-2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -1.0 -2.0 -4.4 -2.6 5.4 1.2 1.6 -2.7 2.5

112.1 94.5 106.2 102.4 108.7 104.5 107.5 109.9 108.4 106.5 105.6 110.3

10.2 -4.8 3.6 2.1 3.0 1.5 1.8 2.9 -2.9 0.7 0.3 1.4

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

107.9 105.2 113.2 111.8 116.6 109.6 113.1 110.3 116.1 121.3 121.8 125.4

-2.4 5.8 3.2 5.4 3.6 1.1 2.3 2.4 5.8 8.6 6.2 4.0

128.2 117.3 134.6 129.2 130.3 136.4 140.2 129.2 129.4 143.2 146.8 158.0

10.1 0.2 13.4 12.8 7.1 7.1 6.8 9.0 7.4 20.4 14.0 14.4

97.6 91.5 104.6 107.1 114.3 88.3 92.0 88.1 98.0 122.2 124.5 120.3

-2.9 -0.3 -3.1 1.4 2.5 -8.8 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 5.6 3.3 -3.9

102.9 105.5 106.9 105.7 111.1 106.3 109.7 111.2 117.8 110.6 109.0 112.4

-8.2 11.6 0.7 3.2 2.2 1.7 2.0 1.2 8.7 3.8 3.2 1.9

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6p 7p

112.9 108.6 119.8 116.5 122.9 119.5 118.0

4.6 3.2 5.8 4.2 5.4 9.0 4.3

125.3 125.0 151.1 139.3 146.0 154.7 141.0

-2.3 6.6 12.3 7.8 12.0 13.4 0.6

101.6 93.1 106.7 109.4 115.1 99.1 98.7

4.1 1.7 2.0 2.1 0.7 12.2 7.3

112.0 107.8 110.9 109.0 115.5 112.0 115.7

8.8 2.2 3.7 3.1 4.0 5.4 5.5

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

September 2016

61


5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index

Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods Nondurable goods y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)

Period 2013 2014 2015

102.2 102.0 104.4

-0.3 -0.2 2.4

103.4 102.7 106.0

0.6 -0.7 3.2

101.7 101.8 103.7

-0.7 0.1 1.9

-

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

100.8 100.8 102.5 104.0

-2.1 2.1 0.1 -0.7

103.5 103.0 100.8 103.3

-4.4 2.1 -1.8 1.5

99.7 99.9 103.2 104.4

-1.1 2.3 0.9 -1.4

-

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

101.4 100.5 105.4 110.1

0.6 -0.3 2.8 5.9

100.0 102.6 105.5 115.8

-3.4 -0.4 4.7 12.1

102.0 99.6 105.4 107.7

2.3 -0.3 2.1 3.2

-

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱp

104.5 104.8

3.1 4.3

101.8 106.2

1.8 3.5

105.7 104.2

3.6 4.6

-

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

102.5 96.5 103.4 101.8 99.9 100.7 105.0 100.2 102.3 105.2 101.0 105.9

-5.8 -0.4 0.1 2.3 0.2 3.9 1.5 -3.7 2.6 -3.3 -1.8 3.5

99.8 106.7 103.9 98.2 103.7 107.2 107.2 94.9 100.3 99.9 103.1 106.9

-9.5 0.3 -3.9 0.1 2.0 4.3 -1.7 -8.6 5.7 -4.3 0.0 9.3

103.6 92.2 103.2 103.4 98.3 98.0 104.0 102.4 103.1 107.5 100.1 105.5

-4.2 -0.8 1.9 3.4 -0.5 3.8 2.9 -1.7 1.4 -2.9 -2.6 1.2

109 108 108 108 104 107 105 106 107 105 103 101

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

104.5 94.1 105.5 105.1 98.0 98.5 103.2 103.1 109.9 112.9 106.8 110.6

2.0 -2.5 2.0 3.2 -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 2.9 7.4 7.3 5.7 4.4

101.4 92.8 105.7 107.1 98.2 102.5 107.0 103.6 105.8 115.6 114.6 117.1

1.6 -13.0 1.7 9.1 -5.3 -4.4 -0.2 9.2 5.5 15.7 11.2 9.5

105.8 94.7 105.4 104.2 98.0 96.7 101.6 102.9 111.6 111.8 103.4 107.8

2.1 2.7 2.1 0.8 -0.3 -1.3 -2.3 0.5 8.2 4.0 3.3 2.2

102 103 101 104 105 98 100 101 103 105 105 102

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6p 7p 8p

106.2 95.0 112.4 106.3 103.6 104.6 101.7 -

1.6 1.0 6.5 1.1 5.7 6.2 -1.5 -

96.8 92.8 115.8 106.7 102.2 109.8 92.5 -

-4.5 0.0 9.6 -0.4 4.1 7.1 -13.6 -

110.3 95.9 110.9 106.1 104.2 102.4 105.6 -

4.3 1.3 5.2 1.8 6.3 5.9 3.9 -

100 98 100 101 99 99 101 102

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

62

Consumer sentiment index

Statistical Appendices


6. Machinery orders received and facility investment index Period 2013 2014 2015

Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)

Facility investment index (2010=100) y-o-y change (%)

23,078 26,487 25,545

6.6 14.8 -3.6

2,580 5,012 1,921

20.5 94.2 -61.7

20,497 21,475 23,624

5.1 4.8 10.0

99.8 105.0 111.6

-0.8 5.2 6.3

2014Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6,627 6,106 7,673 6,081

18.6 4.1 49.2 -6.2

1,221 305 2,708 778

184.6 -45.0 418.5 -27.6

5,406 5,801 4,965 5,303

4.8 9.2 7.4 -1.9

98.6 107.9 100.7 112.9

7.5 6.7 1.4 5.5

2015Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6,430 7,017 5,596 6,502

-3.0 14.9 -27.1 6.9

405 493 399 624

-66.9 61.7 -85.3 -19.8

6,025 6,524 5,197 5,878

11.4 12.5 4.7 10.8

107.7 112.8 111.0 114.7

9.2 4.5 10.2 1.6

2016Ⅰ Ⅱp

6,486 6,809

0.9 -3.0

635 567

56.9 15.1

5,851 6,242

-2.9 -4.3

100.1 113.7

-7.1 0.8

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,753 1,844 3,030 2,274 1,831 2,001 1,772 4,083 1,818 1,936 2,308 1,837

-4.9 10.7 45.8 23.2 -13.9 5.7 -8.4 151.8 14.5 -25.7 10.2 3.0

88 120 1,013 97 116 92 89 2,541 79 211 428 139

-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.3 2,653.2 10.6 -73.2 162.6 12.5

1,665 1,724 2,017 2,177 1,714 1,909 1,683 1,543 1,739 1,725 1,881 1,698

-2.3 15.2 3.1 24.2 -8.7 13.6 6.8 0.9 14.7 -5.0 -2.6 2.3

90.4 95.6 109.8 110.6 108.2 104.8 111.3 90.6 100.2 100.1 112.6 126.1

0.3 13.9 8.7 12.1 6.0 2.2 2.7 -9.9 12.8 -8.7 10.5 15.3

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2,313 1,853 2,264 2,766 2,096 2,155 2,004 1,684 1,908 2,048 1,965 2,489

31.9 0.5 -25.3 21.6 14.5 7.7 13.1 -58.8 5.0 5.8 -14.9 35.5

116 141 148 127 197 169 133 160 106 98 228 298

32.0 17.6 -85.4 30.7 69.4 84.7 50.2 -93.7 34.8 -53.6 -46.7 113.6

2,197 1,712 2,116 2,640 1,899 1,986 1,870 1,524 1,802 1,950 1,737 2,191

31.9 -0.7 4.9 21.2 10.8 4.0 11.2 -1.2 3.6 13.1 -7.6 29.1

103.1 98.5 121.4 113.5 107.2 117.7 119.4 105.9 107.8 112.6 107.2 124.4

14.0 3.0 10.6 2.6 -0.9 12.3 7.3 16.9 7.6 12.5 -4.8 -1.3

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6p 7p

1,758 2,275 2,453 1,987 2,135 2,687 2,077

-24.0 22.7 8.4 -28.2 1.9 24.7 3.7

69 255 312 189 169 209 51

-40.7 80.7 110.8 49.3 -14.2 23.6 -61.9

1,689 2,020 2,142 1,798 1,966 2,478 2,026

-23.1 18.0 1.2 -31.9 3.5 24.8 8.3

96.9 90.7 112.7 110.3 110.4 120.3 104.7

-6.0 -7.9 -7.2 -2.8 3.0 2.2 -12.3

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

September 2016

63


7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received

(current value, billion won)

Period

Value of construction y-o-y completed change (%) (total)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Domestic construction orders y-o-y received change (%) (total)

Type of order Public Private y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2013 2014 2015

98,089 98,491 99,967

10.6 0.4 1.5

34,459 32,015 30,694

1.9 -7.1 -4.1

59,714 62,413 65,114

18.0 4.5 4.3

77,885 90,606 134,338

-12.9 16.3 48.3

24,736 26,427 28,778

-5.1 6.8 8.9

50,947 62,115 102,449

-14.8 21.9 65.0

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

21,678 26,178 23,604 27,031

7.4 1.6 -0.5 -4.9

7,148 8,708 7,245 8,913

2.1 -6.5 -10.1 -11.6

13,677 16,513 15,359 16,864

10.2 6.8 4.2 -1.4

16,144 23,621 24,236 26,604

16.8 26.4 44.0 -6.8

5,924 6,563 5,181 8,758

38.0 22.2 3.9 -13.2

9,759 16,714 18,384 17,258

6.3 32.3 60.7 -2.4

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

21,315 25,034 24,816 28,803

-1.7 -4.4 5.1 6.6

6,593 8,189 7,175 8,738

-7.8 -6.0 -1.0 -2.0

13,973 15,862 16,651 18,628

2.2 -3.9 8.4 10.5

25,417 35,210 36,440 37,270

57.4 49.1 50.4 40.1

4,594 9,069 4,900 10,215

-22.5 38.2 -5.4 16.6

20,537 25,623 30,814 25,525

110.4 53.3 67.6 47.9

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱp

24,191 30,045

13.5 20.0

6,711 8,183

1.8 -0.1

16,209 20,476

16.0 29.1

28,927 33,018

13.8 -6.2

7,812 5,570

70.1 -38.6

20,406 26,704

-0.6 4.2

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

7,057 6,666 7,954 8,477 8,192 9,509 7,916 7,722 7,966 8,241 8,350 10,439

12.5 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.7 -2.8 -4.6 -8.1 -2.5

2,315 2,207 2,626 2,740 2,584 3,384 2,430 2,324 2,492 2,533 2,675 3,705

11.7 -5.9 1.8 -3.2 -7.6 -8.3 -7.8 -9.0 -13.2 -14.2 -14.2 -7.7

4,452 4,237 4,987 5,459 5,317 5,737 5,149 5,113 5,098 5,370 5,300 6,194

12.4 15.7 4.1 9.6 4.5 6.5 4.9 5.9 1.9 0.5 -5.9 1.1

5,546 5,632 4,966 7,501 6,820 9,301 7,033 8,789 8,414 8,000 6,399 12,205

55.9 19.3 -10.5 45.6 9.6 27.0 21.8 87.4 32.1 3.2 -20.8 -3.9

2,048 2,244 1,633 1,894 1,983 2,686 1,531 1,617 2,033 1,413 1,850 5,495

57.5 57.2 -4.6 21.0 26.8 19.9 2.5 9.7 0.6 -7.0 -30.5 -6.9

3,309 3,238 3,213 5,596 4,769 6,348 5,364 6,961 6,060 6,406 4,432 6,420

56.9 -1.6 -15.0 77.1 5.1 28.5 29.3 119.4 47.0 4.3 -14.8 1.3

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

6,824 6,690 7,801 7,709 7,767 9,558 7,895 7,939 8,982 8,503 8,709 11,590

-3.3 0.4 -1.9 -9.1 -5.2 0.5 -0.3 2.8 12.8 3.2 4.3 11.0

2,037 2,092 2,463 2,466 2,324 3,399 2,284 2,206 2,685 2,268 2,441 4,029

-12.0 -5.2 -6.2 -10.0 -10.1 0.5 -6.0 -5.1 7.8 -10.4 -8.7 8.7

4,570 4,379 5,024 4,939 5,131 5,792 5,350 5,437 5,864 5,865 5,877 6,886

2.6 3.4 0.7 -9.5 -3.5 1.0 3.9 6.3 15.0 9.2 10.9 11.2

7,515 5,435 12,467 9,055 12,639 13,516 8,685 8,659 19,097 10,378 13,226 13,666

35.5 -3.5 151.0 20.7 85.3 45.3 23.5 -1.5 127.0 29.7 106.7 12.0

1,318 1,135 2,140 2,585 2,458 4,026 1,791 1,921 1,188 1,803 3,296 5,115

-35.6 -49.4 31.3 36.5 24.0 49.9 17.0 18.8 -41.6 27.7 78.2 -6.9

6,084 4,218 10,235 6,414 10,078 9,131 6,817 6,433 17,564 8,574 9,369 7,582

83.9 30.3 218.6 14.6 111.3 43.8 27.1 -7.6 189.8 33.8 111.4 18.1

2016 1 2 3p 4 5 6p 7p

7,359 7,273 9,559 8,983 9,460 11,602 9,698

7.8 8.7 22.5 16.5 21.8 21.4 22.8

2,042 1,970 2,699 2,316 2,350 3,517 2,239

0.2 -5.9 9.6 -6.1 1.1 3.5 -2.0

5,003 4,948 6,257 6,269 6,703 7,504 7,055

9.5 13.0 24.6 26.9 30.6 29.6 31.9

7,225 10,014 11,687 10,828 9,657 12,533 12,540

-3.9 84.3 -6.3 19.6 -23.6 -7.3 44.4

2,691 2,347 2,774 1,190 2,126 2,254 3,641

104.1 106.8 29.6 -54.0 -13.5 -44.0 103.3

4,260 7,586 8,559 9,271 7,412 10,021 8,226

-30.0 79.8 -16.4 44.5 -26.5 9.7 20.7

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

64

Type of order Public Private

Statistical Appendices


8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Period

Leading index (2010=100)

Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)

Coincident index (2010=100)

Cyclical indicator of coincident index (2010=100)

BSI (results)

BSI (prospects)

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

107.9 108.2 108.6 108.9 109.4 110.2 110.7 111.2 111.3 111.8 112.3 112.9

99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.3 99.7 99.9 100.1 99.9 100.0 100.1 100.3

108.3 108.6 108.5 108.9 109.2 109.8 110.1 110.4 110.5 110.9 111.2 111.7

99.6 99.6 99.3 99.4 99.4 99.7 99.7 99.7 99.5 99.7 99.7 99.9

85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5

85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

113.3 113.6 113.9 114.3 114.6 114.9 115.1 115.7 116.3 116.8 117.1 117.6

100.4 100.3 100.1 100.2 100.0 100.0 99.8 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.1 100.2

112.2 112.5 112.9 113.0 113.1 113.3 113.8 114.2 114.3 114.3 114.4 115.1

100.1 100.1 100.2 100.1 99.9 99.9 100.0 100.2 100.0 99.7 99.7 100.1

89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 92.3 93.1 90.0 95.4

93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1 100.7 93.6 94.0

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

118.2 118.7 119.2 119.7 120.4 120.7 121.1 121.6 122.2 122.7 123.0 123.2

100.4 100.4 100.6 100.6 100.8 100.7 100.7 100.8 100.9 101.0 100.9 100.8

115.5 116.0 116.1 116.4 116.3 116.4 116.8 117.6 118.4 119.0 119.1 119.4

100.1 100.3 100.1 100.1 99.8 99.6 99.7 100.1 100.6 100.9 100.7 100.6

94.0 89.4 101.5 101.3 95.6 79.9 88.4 86.6 96.1 97.2 95.5 95.5

90.3 92.1 103.7 97.5 99.4 96.4 84.3 89.6 95.1 101.2 95.9 97.5

2016 1 2p 3 4 5p 6p 7p 8 9

123.4 123.5 123.9 124.5 124.9 125.2 125.8 -

100.5 100.3 100.3 100.4 100.4 100.3 100.4 -

119.3 119.4 119.5 119.8 120.4 121.0 121.8 -

100.3 100.2 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.5 100.9 -

92.1 87.0 94.2 97.3 97.1 91.3 89.7 90.0 -

93.2 86.3 98.3 95.7 102.3 94.8 90.5 89.5 95.0

Sources: Statistics Korea, Federation of Korean Industries

September 2016

65


9. Balance of payments ( I) Period

Current account

Goods

2013 2014 2015p

81,148.2 84,373.0 105,870.7

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

Services

Primary income

Secondary income

535,375.9 524,135.2 428,547.8

-6,499.2 -3,678.5 -15,708.1

9,055.7 4,150.8 5,901.7

-4,189.3 -4,984.7 -4,612.9

151,471.8 158,004.3 150,820.7 152,723.8

133,876.5 132,828.6 129,843.3 127,586.8

-2,889.0 50.8 -459.6 -380.7

-736.9 556.0 1,398.7 2,933.0

-820.0 -1,674.6 -1,251.6 -1,238.5

24,216.7 33,679.8 30,637.7 31,755.8

134,439.1 142,258.7 135,363.0 136,777.0

110,222.4 108,578.9 104,725.3 105,021.2

-4,387.1 -3,092.6 -3,561.5 -4,666.9

3,830.8 -1,556.9 2,727.7 900.1

-1,221.2 -1,112.7 -695.8 -1,583.2

24,076.1 25,794.6

27,884.2 33,005.9

118,001.5 127,882.2

90,117.3 94,876.3

-4,172.6 -4,132.5

1,249.3 -1,901.3

-884.8 -1,177.5

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,870.1 4,965.6 6,313.7 7,030.6 9,187.0 7,890.3 6,096.7 6,966.9 7,601.3 8,741.5 10,755.2 6,954.1

3,847.8 6,103.7 7,643.8 10,068.2 8,786.8 6,320.7 5,677.3 7,041.2 8,258.9 7,983.9 9,593.0 7,560.1

50,116.2 47,605.8 53,749.8 56,091.9 51,957.8 49,954.6 52,416.1 48,151.0 50,253.6 51,029.1 49,241.6 52,453.1

46,268.4 41,502.1 46,106.0 46,023.7 43,171.0 43,633.9 46,738.8 41,109.8 41,994.7 43,045.2 39,648.6 44,893.0

-1,727.0 -529.9 -632.1 -226.5 159.6 117.7 343.2 -391.6 -411.2 163.7 94.0 -638.4

84.9 -444.1 -377.7 -1,912.8 629.4 1,839.4 466.0 835.6 97.1 856.3 1,183.5 893.2

-335.6 -164.1 -320.3 -898.3 -388.8 -387.5 -389.8 -518.3 -343.5 -262.4 -115.3 -860.8

2015p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

6,257.1 6,081.1 10,101.0 7,729.8 8,315.5 11,872.3 9,714.8 8,546.9 10,846.4 9,120.4 9,910.3 7,375.1

6,310.3 7,020.8 10,885.6 12,090.2 8,792.6 12,797.0 9,924.9 8,805.4 11,907.4 10,605.2 10,466.1 10,684.5

45,022.1 40,294.9 49,122.1 49,908.3 43,471.9 48,878.5 47,259.6 42,991.3 45,112.1 47,298.7 43,360.4 46,117.9

38,711.8 33,274.1 38,236.5 37,818.1 34,679.3 36,081.5 37,334.7 34,185.9 33,204.7 36,693.5 32,894.3 35,433.4

-1,991.3 -1,758.8 -637.0 -804.0 -83.8 -2,204.8 -1,254.3 -1,013.0 -1,294.2 -1,701.7 -1,263.9 -1,701.3

2,558.1 1,037.8 234.9 -3,096.6 40.8 1,498.9 1,139.5 850.9 737.3 594.4 893.6 -587.9

-620.0 -218.7 -382.5 -459.8 -434.1 -218.8 -95.3 -96.4 -504.1 -377.5 -185.5 -1,020.2

2016p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

6,820.9 7,169.7 10,085.5 3,371.7 10,361.3 12,061.6 8,706.1

7,899.7 7,539.0 12,445.5 9,559.3 10,737.6 12,709.0 10,812.9

37,227.8 36,231.7 44,542.0 40,313.0 42,426.0 45,143.2 45,510.8

29,328.1 28,692.7 32,096.5 30,753.7 31,688.4 32,434.2 31,697.9

-1,934.2 -1,242.1 -996.3 -1,617.9 -1,135.2 -1,379.4 -1,532.6

1,253.4 852.1 -856.2 -4,066.2 908.7 1,256.2 49.0

-398.0 20.7 -507.5 -503.5 -149.8 -524.2 -623.2

Exports

Imports

82,781.0 88,885.4 120,290.0

618,156.9 613,020.6 548,837.8

13,149.4 24,107.9 20,664.9 26,450.8

17,595.3 25,175.7 20,977.4 25,137.0

2015p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

22,439.2 27,917.6 29,108.1 26,405.8

2016p Ⅰ Ⅱp

p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

66

(US $ million)

Statistical Appendices


10. Balance of payments ( II)

(US $ million)

Period

Financial account*

Direct investment

Portfolio investment

Financial derivatives

Other investment

Reserve assets

Capital account

2013 2014 2015p

80,104.6 89,334.0 109,730.0

15,593.2 18,765.6 22,597.8

9,344.5 30,608.9 48,592.8

-4,410.3 -3,826.9 2,532.5

43,281.1 25,900.6 23,954.3

16,296.1 17,885.8 12,052.6

-27.0 -8.9 -64.7

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

15,120.7 24,650.2 21,230.4 28,332.7

2,367.1 7,990.4 2,952.8 5,455.3

12,614.4 4,291.2 4,292.1 9,411.2

-1,004.6 -1,983.9 -1,649.7 811.3

-5,879.9 3,182.9 9,803.2 18,794.4

7,023.7 11,169.6 5,832.0 -6,139.5

-2.1 -4.3 3.6 -6.1

2015p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

23,800.1 28,671.4 29,615.2 27,643.3

4,386.2 7,467.6 4,920.9 5,823.1

7,838.4 6,994.1 15,096.2 18,664.1

-41.0 -461.4 4,040.7 -1,005.8

4,506.4 7,369.2 9,844.1 2,234.6

7,110.1 7,301.9 -4,286.7 1,927.3

-23.1 -25.5 -27.9 11.8

2016p Ⅰ Ⅱp

28,218.0 18,694.5

5,070.3 2,047.8

16,719.1 13,917.8

2,756.8 -1,131.2

4,958.1 2,911.6

-1,286.3 948.5

-11.6 -7.0

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3,459.5 6,830.1 4,831.1 6,109.1 8,223.5 10,317.6 4,787.1 7,866.8 8,576.5 7,243.3 10,457.9 10,631.5

-1,420.3 1,601.5 2,185.9 2,369.9 3,512.1 2,108.4 492.8 524.3 1,935.7 2,769.7 1,998.3 687.3

4,393.6 6,429.0 1,791.8 -1,793.6 2,027.7 4,057.1 1,696.5 -705.2 3,300.8 339.4 2,686.3 6,385.5

-177.3 -264.6 -562.7 -890.2 -546.6 -547.1 -597.0 -621.0 -431.7 426.1 91.7 293.5

-2,243.2 -3,260.8 -375.9 5,757.2 -2,737.4 163.1 -132.9 7,841.8 2,094.3 3,955.6 8,579.1 6,259.7

2,906.7 2,325.0 1,792.0 665.8 5,967.7 4,536.1 3,327.7 826.9 1,677.4 -247.5 -2,897.5 -2,994.5

-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3 11.2 -1.3 -1.1 -0.8 -4.2

2015p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

7,898.1 5,175.2 10,726.8 9,802.8 8,558.1 10,310.5 10,018.0 9,052.5 10,544.7 11,086.1 8,697.0 7,860.2

659.2 1,631.0 2,096.0 1,712.2 949.9 4,805.5 -15.1 328.1 4,607.9 3,501.4 903.0 1,418.7

3,623.7 3,001.5 1,213.2 138.0 358.3 6,497.8 8,277.2 2,537.4 4,281.6 7,098.9 5,128.8 6,436.4

76.2 -27.5 -89.7 -301.9 -403.7 244.2 936.4 1,618.6 1,485.7 -812.0 -609.9 416.1

-489.1 371.2 4,624.3 4,851.0 4,755.5 -2,237.3 1,792.3 8,450.1 -398.3 -931.9 1,662.4 1,504.1

4,028.1 199.0 2,883.0 3,403.5 2,898.1 1,000.3 -972.8 -3,881.7 567.8 2,229.7 1,612.7 -1,915.1

-13.0 -1.7 -8.4 -8.5 -1.5 -15.5 -29.9 1.1 0.9 -5.4 17.0 0.2

2016p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

6,478.9 9,503.0 12,236.1 167.1 8,928.1 9,599.3 9,388.0

-71.5 1,554.4 3,587.4 -143.4 715.8 1,475.4 949.2

4,650.7 6,199.9 5,868.5 3,360.8 4,358.8 6,198.2 90.7

1,214.5 756.6 785.7 -1,033.1 -463.7 365.6 -482.6

302.9 2,557.8 2,097.4 -3,333.8 3,915.7 2,329.7 6,863.9

382.3 -1,565.7 -102.9 1,316.6 401.5 -769.6 1,966.8

-6.1 -2.3 -3.2 -5.0 1.0 -3.0 2.7

* Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows. p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

September 2016

67


11. Prices Period

(2010=100)

All items y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Producer prices All items Commodities

Core

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2013 2014 2015

107.7 109.0 109.8

1.3 1.3 0.7

110.1 111.1 110.3

1.0 0.9 -0.7

105.8 107.4 109.4

1.5 1.6 1.8

106.6 108.8 111.1

1.6 2.0 2.2

105.7 105.2 101.0

-1.6 -0.5 -4.0

106.2 104.8 98.0

-2.5 -1.4 -6.4

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9

1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1

109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2

1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9

105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2

1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3

105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5

1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9

106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4

-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4

106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 105.9 106.3 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5

-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.3 109.5 109.4 109.1 108.8 108.8

1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8

110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.4 111.5 110.6 110.2 110.1

0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0

106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.7 107.9 107.8 107.8 107.7 107.8

1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6

107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.1 109.1 109.3

1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6

105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6 105.2 104.5 104.1 103.1

-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -2.1

105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.4 105.1 104.7 103.6 103.1 101.7

-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -1.1 -1.4 -1.8 -2.0 -3.6

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

109.4 109.4 109.4 109.5 109.8 109.8 110.0 110.2 110.0 110.1 109.9 110.2

0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3

110.9 110.6 110.3 110.1 110.6 110.7 110.3 110.5 110.2 109.9 109.7 110.1

-0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.0

108.2 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.2 109.2 109.8 110.0 109.9 110.1 110.1 110.3

1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3

110.3 110.4 110.6 110.7 111.1 111.1 111.3 111.5 111.4 111.6 111.7 111.9

2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4

101.9 101.9 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.4 100.8 100.3 99.7 99.3 99.0

-3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6 -4.0 -4.5 -4.6 -4.6 -4.7 -4.0

99.7 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.3 98.6 97.7 97.0 96.0 95.3 95.0

-5.8 -5.8 -5.9 -5.8 -5.7 -5.8 -6.4 -7.1 -7.3 -7.4 -7.6 -6.6

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

110.3 110.8 110.5 110.6 110.7 110.7 110.8 110.7

0.8 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4

109.7 110.5 109.6 109.6 109.5 109.5 109.5 108.9

-1.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -1.1 -0.7 -1.5

110.8 111.0 111.2 111.4 111.6 111.6 111.9 112.1

2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9

112.2 112.5 112.5 112.7 112.9 113.0 113.1 112.8

1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.1

98.5 98.5 98.4 98.7 98.8 99.0 99.0 99.0

-3.3 -3.4 -3.3 -3.0 -3.0 -2.7 -2.4 -1.7

94.0 93.9 93.8 94.1 94.3 94.6 94.4 94.4

-5.7 -5.9 -5.7 -5.2 -5.1 -4.7 -4.3 -3.4

Source: Bank of Korea

68

Consumer prices Commodities Services

Statistical Appendices


12. Employment Period

Economically active persons (thousands)

y-o-y change (%)

Employed persons (thousands) All industry Manufacturing y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%)

SOC & services Unemployment rate (%) y-o-y change (%)

2013 2014 2015

25,873 26,536 26,913

1.5 2.6 1.4

25,066 25,599 25,936

1.6 2.1 1.3

4,184 4,330 4,486

1.9 3.5 3.6

19,347 19,805 20,029

1.6 2.4 1.5

3.1 3.5 3.6

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736

1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4

24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962

1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3

4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264

3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0

18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514

1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7

3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825 26,891 26,775 26,766 26,809 26,786 26,270

3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1

24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875 25,979 25,885 25,917 25,951 25,968 25,384

2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7

4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,345 4,358 4,335 4,347 4,361 4,355 4,406

2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.4 3.3

19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841 20,003 19,940 19,949 19,973 20,098 19,896

3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0

3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

26,094 26,398 26,577 26,954 27,211 27,255 27,303 27,064 27,129 27,137 27,082 26,747

1.7 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.8

25,106 25,195 25,501 25,900 26,189 26,205 26,305 26,141 26,264 26,298 26,253 25,879

1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 2.0

4,421 4,433 4,400 4,455 4,464 4,478 4,528 4,491 4,512 4,552 4,545 4,552

3.3 3.7 2.7 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.4 3.3

19,693 19,716 19,832 20,004 20,179 20,161 20,250 20,153 20,249 20,248 20,353 20,266

1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.9

3.8 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

26,433 26,734 26,955 27,228 27,455 27,563 27,578 27,524

1.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.7

25,445 25,418 25,800 26,153 26,450 26,559 26,603 26,528

1.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.5

4,566 4,541 4,525 4,503 4,514 4,493 4,464 4,418

3.3 2.4 2.8 1.1 1.1 0.3 -1.4 -1.6

19,955 19,885 20,028 20,263 20,483 20,593 20,719 20,677

1.3 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.6

3.7 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6

Source: Statistics Korea

September 2016

69


13. Financial indicators Call rate (1 day)

CDs (91 days)

2012 7 8 9 10 11 12

3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8

3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9

3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9

3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0

1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4

2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9

2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3

1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0

2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5

2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1

3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3

1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09 1,964.43 1,980.78 1,915.59

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7

2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1

2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7

2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9

1,949.26 1,985.80 2,041.03 2,127.17 2,114.80 2,074.20 2,030.16 1,941.49 1,962.81 2,029.47 1,991.97 1,961.31

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2

1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4

2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7

1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2

1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3

1,912.06 1,916.66 1,995.85 1,994.15 1,983.40 1,970.35 2,016.19 2,034.65

Period

Source: Bank of Korea

70

(period average)

Yields (%) Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)

Statistical Appendices

Treasury bonds (3 years)

Treasury bonds (5 years)

Stock KOSPI (end-period)


14. Monetary indicators Reserve money

Period 2013 2014 2015

(period average, billion won)

M1

y-o-y change (%)

M2

y-o-y change (%)

Lf y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

91,379.4 103,331.5 120,691.4

11.3 13.1 16.8

484,062.9 536,733.4 636,639.0

9.5 10.9 18.6

1,885,781.3 2,009,576.3 2,182,911.9

4.8 6.6 8.6

2,543,232.5 2,721,502.2 2,986,699.4

6.9 7.0 9.7

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

85,839.3 88,855.7 89,523.5 87,729.0 89,654.8 91,207.6 90,643.7 93,729.6 95,130.6 93,640.4 93,609.9 96,988.5

5.1 8.8 13.2 8.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 13.8 14.7 10.1 12.8 13.7

464,914.5 472,239.6 472,430.1 475,330.0 475,526.7 486,587.5 488,982.7 481,416.9 490,518.7 491,947.9 499,242.7 509,617.9

5.8 8.0 7.4 8.7 8.4 10.2 10.7 9.5 11.5 10.7 12.1 11.3

1,841,128.1 1,857,135.0 1,862,405.5 1,867,726.3 1,870,289.7 1,884,193.2 1,890,728.6 1,888,658.4 1,903,187.1 1,908,557.6 1,923,339.2 1,932,026.4

4.8 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.3

2,469,789.3 2,488,539.0 2,499,718.1 2,512,459.7 2,518,239.1 2,533,750.8 2,549,443.5 2,557,336.3 2,577,546.7 2,587,071.4 2,605,866.7 2,619,029.5

7.7 8.1 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

98,541.6 100,547.9 100,624.0 98,898.5 101,791.4 101,412.3 101,164.2 107,682.4 105,354.1 107,117.5 106,667.9 110,175.6

14.8 13.2 12.4 12.7 13.5 11.2 11.6 14.9 10.7 14.4 13.9 13.6

515,742.5 518,475.5 520,299.0 518,809.3 523,069.9 532,041.2 534,028.8 538,640.3 548,550.8 551,416.0 562,006.2 577,721.1

10.9 9.8 10.1 9.1 10.0 9.3 9.2 11.9 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.4

1,937,045.6 1,954,340.7 1,964,954.0 1,970,361.6 1,982,390.9 1,999,376.3 2,013,935.1 2,031,777.2 2,037,600.8 2,051,149.8 2,083,253.5 2,088,729.8

5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.6 7.1 7.5 8.3 8.1

2,635,100.1 2,647,674.0 2,659,443.2 2,669,341.4 2,684,643.9 2,703,088.1 2,725,737.6 2,743,972.5 2,759,390.8 2,776,968.0 2,817,698.0 2,834,968.4

6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.1 7.3 8.1 8.2

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

113,304.2 116,502.4 115,974.9 115,132.7 117,726.3 118,688.2 122,041.0 121,854.4 126,572.2 125,616.2 126,767.1 128,117.5

15.0 15.9 15.3 16.4 15.7 17.0 20.6 13.2 20.1 17.3 18.8 16.3

579,964.2 592,737.4 600,719.9 610,803.3 621,985.5 630,546.3 645,975.4 653,105.9 665,691.1 669,737.7 677,629.2 690,772.4

12.5 14.3 15.5 17.7 18.9 18.5 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.5 20.6 19.6

2,092,223.5 2,109,892.3 2,127,887.8 2,148,114.7 2,166,741.1 2,179,561.1 2,200,510.9 2,218,660.3 2,230,000.7 2,232,432.0 2,242,848.2 2,246,070.1

8.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.2 9.4 8.8 7.7 7.5

2,857,610.1 2,876,467.8 2,907,976.4 2,936,746.7 2,960,998.1 2,986,316.5 3,013,503.9 3,028,981.1 3,049,823.2 3,059,051.9 3,076,029.2 3,086,887.8

8.4 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.2 8.9

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

131,279.3 134,913.0 132,957.9 135,038.9 135,971.3 135,758.4 135,906.7

15.9 15.8 14.6 17.3 15.5 14.4 11.4

699,767.3 708,014.0 713,861.2 720,818.5 722,544.4 730,637.8 735,172.2

20.7 19.4 18.8 18.0 16.2 15.9 13.8

2,261,356.4 2,285,313.5 2,294,544.7 2,299,081.3 2,312,801.2 2,334,256.2 2,352,245.1

8.1 8.3 7.8 7.0 6.7 7.1 6.9

3,110,535.8 3,133,492.2 3,158,687.8 3,170,277.9 3,189,899.3 3,223,154.5 3,242,338.3

8.9 8.9 8.6 8.0 7.7 7.9 7.6

Source: Bank of Korea

September 2016

71


15. Exchange rates Period

100/ \

Euro/ \

Won

y-o-y change (%)

Won

y-o-y change (%)

Won

y-o-y change (%)

2013 2014 2015

1,055.3 1,099.2 1,172.0

-1.5 4.2 6.6

1,004.7 920.1 972.0

-19.5 -8.4 5.6

1,456.3 1,336.5 1,280.5

2.8 -8.2 -4.2

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3

-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5

1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7

-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5

1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3

-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4 1,024.3 1,013.6 1,050.6 1,054.0 1,101.1 1,099.2

-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8 -8.0 -8.8 -2.3 -0.7 3.7 4.2

1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0 995.7 977.6 960.2 964.1 933.9 920.1

-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3 -12.3 -13.4 -12.6 -10.5 -10.0 -8.4

1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2 1,371.8 1,336.2 1,333.3 1,328.8 1,372.2 1,336.5

0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6 -7.1 -9.1 -8.1 -8.8 -5.0 -8.2

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,090.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1 1,108.0 1,124.1 1,166.3 1,176.3 1,194.5 1,142.3 1,150.4 1,172.0

1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5 8.5 10.8 13.9 16.1 13.7 8.4 4.5 6.6

921.3 920.7 920.3 897.2 894.6 917.2 939.3 970.1 996.8 944.1 936.7 972.0

-11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8 -10.9 -8.3 -5.7 -0.8 3.8 -2.1 0.3 5.6

1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0 1,215.2 1,260.5 1,275.4 1,317.3 1,343.9 1,254.8 1,218.3 1,280.5

-16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7 -12.6 -8.9 -7.0 -1.4 0.8 -5.6 -11.2 -4.2

2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1,208.4 1,235.4 1,153.5 1,143.9 1,190.6 1,164.7 1,125.7 1,118.5

10.8 12.4 4.4 7.1 7.5 3.6 -3.5 -4.9

1,017.1 1,085.8 1,026.0 1,058.2 1,072.8 1,132.2 1,073.7 1,086.3

10.4 17.9 11.5 17.9 19.9 23.4 14.3 12.0

1,322.2 1,348.3 1,307.4 1,298.4 1,326.8 1,295.5 1,246.7 1,246.9

7.0 9.6 9.2 9.4 9.2 2.8 -2.3 -5.3

Source: Bank of Korea

72

(end-period)

US $/ \

Statistical Appendices


A dragon structure in Yongdusan Park, Busan

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September 2016

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