emissions from human activity are unequivocally warming the planet’s climate. Further, the IPCC report finds that — even with a stabilization of GHG concentrations at current levels — the impact of climate change will lead to potential irreversible impacts.5 The IPCC projects that global temperatures will rise 1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100, and global sea level will rise 18 to 59cm. This warming will have many impacts: on ecosystems, food production, coastlines, human settlements, health, and water availability. Impacts from the changing climate will vary across the globe, and even within North America climate change will have different effects on different regions. Some of the major impacts projected by the IPCC for North America include:
B Coastal communities and habitats will be increasingly stressed by climate change impacts interacting with development and pollution. Population growth and the rising value of infrastructure in coastal areas increase vulnerability to climate variability and climate change, with losses projected to increase as the intensity of tropical storms increases. Current adaptation efforts are uneven, and readiness for increased exposure is low. B There is high confidence that many semiarid areas of the western United States will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. Warming in the western mountain states is projected to cause decreased snow pack, more winter flooding, and reduced summer flows in rivers and streams, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources. The extent of drought-affected areas is projected to expand.
Figure 2.1 Average Surface Air Temperature and CO2 Concentrations Since 1880
400 380
0.4
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340 0.0
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-0.4 -0.6 1880
CO2 Concentration (ppmv) (curve)
Global Temperature Anomaly (°C) (bars)
0.6
280 260 1900
1920
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1960
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5
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain.
BAC K G R O U N D O N T H E P OT E N TI A L I M PAC T S O F C LI M AT E C H A N G E O N T R A N S P O RTATI O N
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