National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Brochure

Selected Consensus Study Reports

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hese Consensus Study Reports are a selection of the work produced by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine between 2012 and 2017. They are representative of the institution’s contributions—based on expert input and insights—to inform public policy in the United States. All of these reports, and more than 4,000 other publications, are available online to read for free at www.nap.edu.

AGRICULTURE AND LIFE SCIENCES Gene Drives on the Horizon: Advancing Science, Navigating Uncertainty, and Aligning Research with Public Values (2016) Gene drive research holds promise for addressing difficult-to-solve challenges in agriculture, conservation, and public health, including the eradication of insect-borne infectious diseases. Gene Drives on the Horizon provides general principles to guide responsible practices relative to the science, ethics, public engagement, risk assessment, and governance of research and its potential applications.

Genetically Engineered Crops: Experiences and Prospects (2016) After two decades of genetically engineered (GE) crops production, some groups and individuals remain critical of the technology based on their concerns about possible adverse effects, while others are worried the technology is not reaching its potential to improve human health and the environment. Genetically Engineered Crops examines the purported positive and adverse effects of GE crops and seeks to anticipate what emerging genetic technologies hold for the future.

Human Genome Editing: Science, Ethics, and Governance (2017) Genome editing is a powerful new tool for making precise alterations to an organism’s genetic material. Human Genome Editing considers important questions about the research and clinical human applications of genome editing in humans, including balancing potential benefits with risks, governing the use of human genome editing, incorporating societal values and policy decisions, and respecting the inevitable differences across nations and cultures.

A Conversation with R. Alta Charo The Committee on Human Gene Editing: Scientific, Medical, and Ethical Considerations for Human Genome Editing was deliberately constructed to be diverse politically, geographically, and culturally, including people from China, Egypt, France, and Israel.

We had members from around the world because we recognized this topic has global impact. We also included people from expected fields and backgrounds and unexpected to, again, provide us with a wide range of views and expertise.

When we first met, some people came in with certain expectations of what policies made sense. But as we worked together, it became clear that people’s opinions were not truly fixed. The more we talked, the more they listened, shifted, and rethought and were less sure of their positions. As the depth of understanding of the science and of the regulatory concerns increased, their ideas again became more confident. People on both ends of the spectrum really moved closer together through a better understanding of the facts, correction of misinformation, really hard listening, and acknowledging concerns even if they did not share them.

As we worked to more fully understand the topic of human genome editing, three main areas emerged. The first, germline editing, was where most people came in with preconceived notions and where we emerged in the most unexpected way. The next area, using genome editing for human enhancements, involved a yearlong process of learning that we are not ready to answer the question of whether to use this new technique yet for enriching characteristics. Science had not advanced far enough to answer the risks. So we decided to let the science catch up and laid out a process for the future in how to get there. The last area was somatic cell genome editing for preventing disease. I was worried that we would not be able to compartmentalize this area because of the potential for human enhancement issues to blur the boundaries. But our committee was good at isolating this topic and purposefully moved it away from controversy. We also set to protect it through more conservative regulation so that the lines between it and enhancements could not be easily blurred. The outcome of the report was really dramatic but at the same time really cautious, which is exactly where the science led us.

R. Alta Charo, University of Wisconsin–Madison Co-Chair of Committee on Human Gene Editing: Scientific, Medical, and Ethical Considerations for Human Genome Editing: Science, Ethics, and Governance

CHILDREN AND YOUTH Investing in the Health and Well-Being of Young Adults (2015) What happens during the young adult years has profound implications for the rest of the life course, and the stability and progress of society at large depends on how any cohort of young adults fares as a whole. Investing in the Health and Well-Being of Young Adults provides a roadmap to improving outcomes for this age group as it transitions from adolescence to adulthood.

Preventing Bullying Through Science, Policy, and Practice (2016) Bullying behavior is a major public health problem that demands the concerted and coordinated time and attention of parents, educators and school administrators, health care providers, policy makers, families, and others. This report evaluates the state of the science on the biological and psychosocial consequences of peer victimization and the risk and protective factors that either increase or decrease peer victimization behavior and consequences.

Sports-Related Concussions in Youth: Improving the Science, Changing the Culture (2014) Improving understanding of the extent, causes, effects, and prevention of sports-related concussions is vitally important for the health and well-being of youth athletes. The findings and recommendations in this report set a direction for research to create a safer athletic culture.

EARTH SCIENCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises (2013) Both abrupt changes in the physical climate system and steady changes in climate that can trigger abrupt changes in other physical, biological, and human systems present possible threats to nature and to society. This report summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and recommends the development of an early warning system that would help anticipate future abrupt changes and reduce their impacts.

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change (2016) Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event.

As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of the science of extreme weather attribution and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative (2012) Disaster Resilience confronts the topic of how to increase the nation’s resilience to disasters through a vision of the characteristics of a resilient nation in the year 2030. Although disasters will continue to occur, actions that move the nation from reactive approaches to disasters to a proactive stance where communities actively engage in enhancing resilience will reduce the broad societal and economic burdens that disasters can cause.

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ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, AND LEGAL STUDIES The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration (2017) The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration provides a comprehensive assessment of economic and demographic trends of U.S. immigration during the past 20 years, its impact on the labor market and wages of native-born workers, and its fiscal impact at the national, state, and local levels.

The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences (2014) The Growth of Incarceration in the United States analyzes the dramatic 40-year rise of incarceration rates and their effects. It makes the case that the United States has gone far past the point where the number of people in prison can be justified by social benefits and has reached a level where these high rates of incarceration themselves constitute a source of injustice and social harm. This study recommends changes in sentencing policy, prison policy, and social policy to reduce the nation’s reliance on incarceration.

Identifying the Culprit: Assessing Eyewitness Identification (2014) Identifying the Culprit explains the science that has emerged during the past 30 years on eyewitness identifications and describes best practices in eyewitness procedures for the law enforcement community and in the presentation of eyewitness evidence in the courtroom. This report is an essential resource to assist the law enforcement and legal communities as they seek to understand the value and the limitations of eyewitness identification and make improvements to procedures.

EDUCATION Education for Life and Work: Developing Transferable Knowledge and Skills in the 21st Century (2012) Education for Life and Work describes the important set of key skills, such as problem solving, critical thinking, and collaboration, that students will need to navigate in a rapidly changing world. It summarizes research that investigates the importance of such skills to success in education, work, and other areas of adult responsibility and that demonstrates the importance of developing these skills in K–16 education.

A Framework for K–12 Science Education: Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas (2012) A Framework for K–12 Science Education identifies the key scientific practices, concepts, and ideas that all students should learn by the time they complete high school. These expectations have informed the development of new standards for K–12 science education by states and districts throughout the United States, as well as revisions to curriculum, instruction, assessment, and professional development.

Research Universities and the Future of America: Ten Breakthrough Actions Vital to Our Nation’s Prosperity and Security (2012) Widely considered the best in the world, our nation’s research universities confront significant financial pressures, important advances in technology, a changing demographic landscape, and increased international competition. Research Universities and the Future of America provides a course of action for ensuring that our universities continue to produce the knowledge, ideas, and talent the United States needs to be a global leader in the 21st century.

Successful K–12 STEM Education: Identifying Effective Approaches in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (2011) Successful K–12 STEM Education provides information that education leaders can use to make strategic decisions about improving science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education. The report defines a framework for understanding “success” in K–12 STEM education and outlines criteria for identifying effective STEM schools and programs.

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HEALTH AND MEDICINE Delivering High-Quality Cancer Care: Charting a New Course for a System in Crisis (2013) By 2030, cancer incidence is expected to rise to 2.3 million new diagnoses per year. Delivering High-Quality Cancer Care provides information for cancer care teams, patients and their families, researchers, quality metrics developers, and payers, as well as the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, other federal agencies, and industry to reevaluate their current roles and responsibilities in cancer care and work together to develop a higher-quality care delivery system. By working toward this shared goal, the cancer care community can improve the quality of life and outcomes for people facing a cancer diagnosis.

Dying in America: Improving Quality and Honoring Individual Preferences Near the End of Life (2015) No care decisions are more profound than those made near the end of life. Yet, the experience of dying in the United States is often characterized by fragmented care, inadequate treatment of distressing symptoms, frequent transitions among care settings, and enormous care responsibilities for families. Dying in America evaluates strategies to integrate care into a person- and family-centered, team-based framework and makes recommendations to create a system that coordinates care and supports and respects the choices of patients and their families.

The Health Effects of Cannabis and Cannabinoids: The Current State of Evidence and Recommendations for Research (2017) Significant changes have taken place in the policy landscape surrounding cannabis legalization, production, and use. However, despite this changing landscape, evidence regarding the short- and long-term health effects of cannabis use remains elusive.

The Health Effects of Cannabis and Cannabinoids provides a comprehensive review of the scientific evidence related to the health effects and potential therapeutic benefits of cannabis.

U.S. Health in International Perspective: Shorter Lives, Poorer Health (2013) Although life expectancy and survival rates in the United States have improved dramatically during the past century, Americans live shorter lives and experience more injuries and illnesses than people in other high-income countries. U.S. Health in International Perspective explores possible explanations for the shorter and less healthy lives of Americans than those of people in comparable countries and recommends actions by both government and nongovernment agencies and organizations to address the U.S. health disadvantage.

NATIONAL SECURITY Bulk Collection of Signals Intelligence: Technical Options (2015) Bulk Collection of Signals Intelligence assesses the feasibility of creating software that would allow the intelligence community to more easily conduct targeted information acquisition rather than bulk collection. This report considers the efficacy, practicality, and privacy implications of alternative software architectures and uses of information technology and explores tradeoffs among these aspects in the context of representative “use cases.”

Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense: An Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives (2012) Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense assesses the feasibility, practicality, and affordability of U.S. boost-phase missile defense compared with that of the U.S. non-boost missile defense when countering short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic missile threats from rogue states. This report makes recommendations and sets guidelines for the future of ballistic missile defense research.

National Security Space Defense and Protection: Public Report (2016) The importance of space systems to the United States and its allies and potential adversaries raises major policy issues. National Security Space Defense and Protection reviews the range of options available to address threats to space systems—in terms of deterring, defeating, and surviving hostile actions—and assesses potential strategies and plans to counter such threats.

A Conversation with Robert Sproull The committee process for the study on Bulk Collection of Signals Intelligence was a bit different from other consensus studies I have participated in at the National Academies.

To start with, we were not making policy recommendations or even looking into the legality of the bulk collection of sensitive data for the intelligence community. Our charge was to examine the feasibility of creating software that would allow the intelligence community to target information acquisition rather than collect telephone call data en masse and then search this “bulk” data when targets were later identified.

The committee agreed that if you did not know the targets, you had no way to limit acquisition. But the process of looking into the various techniques for targeted collection and exploring their pros and cons did reveal some diverse views. One area of great interest was the overall security of the collected data. We all knew that standard computer industry systems are not absolutely secure. However, exactly what could be done to make the collection of intelligence information more secure yielded interesting perspectives.

Some members of the committee believed that certain options were flat out not feasible or would be incredibly difficult to implement. Others contended that there were technologies in existence that could do the job of making collected information more secure but they were not practical because they are not cost effective or slow the processing down. There was also a serious debate as to how far we should go to scrutinize access to the data being collected to be sure each use is authorized, so as to properly protect privacy and other legal restrictions on the use of this data. In all cases, the security of the overall system was determined only in part by computer technologies: much depends on the role of humans in the system and the operational checks and balances that ensure a system is being used properly. These kinds of deep discussions and debates among a diverse group of experts are typical of the consensus study process at the National Academies and often lead to novel ideas, findings, and conclusions. In our case, because we were not asked to make recommendations on specific implementation options for the targeted collection of information necessary for the intelligence community, we did not need to come to consensus on areas of some disagreement. But our discussions allowed us to better understand the larger issues and led to a concise report that answered the questions posed by our sponsor.

Robert F. Sproull, University of Massachusetts Amherst Chair of Committee on Responding to Section 5(d) of Presidential Policy Directive 28: The Feasibility of Software to Provide Alternatives to Bulk Signals Intelligence Collection for Bulk Collection of Signals Intelligence: Technical Options

PHYSICAL SCIENCES, INFORMATION, AND SPACE STUDIES Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles (2015) Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles estimates the cost, potential efficiency improvements, and barriers to the commercial deployment of technologies that might be employed from 2020 to 2030. This report describes these promising technologies and makes recommendations for their inclusion on the list of technologies applicable for the 2017–2025 Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards.

Frontiers in Massive Data Analysis (2013) Data mining of massive data sets is transforming the way we think about crisis response, marketing, entertainment, cybersecurity, and national intelligence. Frontiers in Massive Data Analysis examines the promise and challenges of analyzing massive amounts of data, whether in a static database or streaming through a system. This report identifies new tools, skills, and approaches, as well as potential research directions for exploration.

Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration (2014) Pathways to Exploration explores the case for advancing human spaceflight, drawing on the history of rationales for human spaceflight, examining the attitudes of stakeholders and the public, and carefully assessing the technical and fiscal realities. The recommendations of this report provide a clear map toward a human spaceflight program that inspires students and citizens by furthering human exploration and discovery, while taking into account the long-term commitment necessary to achieve this goal.

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POLICY FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Diplomacy for the 21st Century: Embedding a Culture of Science and Technology Throughout the Department of State (2015) Diplomacy for the 21st Century recommends steps that the U.S. Department of State should embrace to take full advantage of the leading science and technology (S&T) capabilities of the United States.

These capabilities provide the department with many opportunities to promote a variety of interests of the United States and its allies in a rapidly changing world wherein S&T are important drivers of economic development at home and abroad and help ensure international security.

Emerging and Readily Available Technologies and National Security: A Framework for Addressing Ethical, Legal, and Societal Issues (2014) Emerging and Readily Available Technologies and National Security studies the ethical, legal, and societal issues related to the research, development, and use of rapidly changing technologies with low barriers of entry that have potential military application, such as information technologies, synthetic biology, and nanotechnology. The report articulates a framework for policy makers, institutions, and individual researchers to think about issues as they relate to these technologies of military relevance and makes recommendations for how each of these groups should approach these considerations in research activities.

Fostering Integrity in Research (2017) The integrity of knowledge that emerges from research is based on individual and collective adherence to core values of objectivity, honesty, openness, fairness, accountability, and stewardship.

Fostering Integrity in Research identifies best practices in research and recommends practical options for discouraging and addressing research misconduct and detrimental research practices.

PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT Communicating Science Effectively: A Research Agenda (2017) Science and technology are integral to a range of decisions people must make in modern life. But science communication is remarkably complex. Communicating Science Effectively offers a research agenda that can inform efforts to communicate about science effectively, particularly when the issues are contentious.

Science Literacy: Concepts, Contexts, and Consequences (2016) Science Literacy examines science literacy in the United States at societal, community, and individual levels. This report synthesizes the available research on science literacy, makes recommendations to improve the understanding of science and scientific research in the United States, and considers the relationship between scientific literacy and public support for science.

TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Between Public and Private Mobility: Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Transportation Services (2016) Between Public and Private Mobility analyzes how innovative transportation services, including ridesharing, carsharing, bikesharing, and microtransit, are changing mobility for millions of travelers. The report offers guidance to state and local officials responsible for setting policy and the regulation of for-hire transportation services.

Interregional Travel: A New Perspective for Policy Making (2016) Interregional Travel examines the demand for and supply of interregional transportation in the United States. The report recommends actions to reduce the uncertainty of future demand and create stronger institutional means for developing the country’s interregional corridors.

WORKFORCE Building America’s Skilled Technical Workforce (2017) Skilled technical occupations are a key component of the U.S. economy.

In response to the broader need for policy information and advice, Building America’s Skilled Technical Workforce examines the coverage, effectiveness, flexibility, and coordination of the policies and various programs that prepare Americans for skilled technical jobs.

Making Value for America: Embracing the Future of Manufacturing, Technology, and Work (2015) Globalization, developments in technology, and new business models are transforming the way products and services are conceived, designed, made, and distributed in the United States and around the world. Making Value for America examines these challenges and opportunities and offers recommendations for collaborative actions among government, industry, and educational institutions to help ensure that the United States thrives amid global economic changes and remains a leading environment for innovation.

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