Sub-module 2
Megatrends and their role in future design
Module: Environment and Sustainability related Megatrends and Risks
The objectives of this submodule •
To discuss and to analyze concepts of megatrends, futures and foresights. • To identify the potential benefits of using the megatrends in future anticipation. • To identify the role of megatrends in sustainability approaches and sustainability related risk analysis.
Control questions • Before you start this sub-module, please answer to yourself the following questions: i) Megatrend is almost a buzzword in nowadays. So think about the megatrends that can be important for your future profession and you future workplace. You should identify at least 5 megatrends. ii) Write down your identified megatrends (and prioritize them, where 1 is your top priority megatrend. iii) Think carefully about how every of listed megatrends will affect you personally.
Megatrends
Megatrends Megatrends are long-term processes of transformation with a broad scope and a heavy impact. They are considered to as drivers of global changes and powerful forces that shape the future.
Other definitions • A megatrend is a long-term change that affects governments, societies and economies over a long period of time. • One of the definitions of a megatrend is “an inevitable evolution leading to a change of society, business, economics or environment.“ … Megatrends drive other trends in various spheres related to human activity or environment.
There are three characteristics in which megatrends differ from other trends:
TIME HORIZON • Megatrends can be observed over decades. THE REACH
• Megatrends impact heavily on all regions and actors. INTENSITY OF IMPACT • Megatrends cause fundamental transformations of all key systems: society, economy, environment.
There are 3 characteristics in which megatrends differ from the other trends: TIME HORIZON • Megatrends can be observed over decades. THE REACH • Megatrends impact heavily on all regions and actors. INTENSITY OF IMPACT • Megatrends cause fundamental transformations of all key systems: society, economy, environment.
Megatrends can be considered as key drivers of global changes.
Key features of megatrends • Inevitable • Slow to form, evolutionary • Affects all key areas environment, society, and societal activities • The impact from megatrends can create either the opportunity or the threat • The megatrends have underlying forces that drive those megatrends • They are the underlying forces that drive trends and issues • They influence our future actions (mega actions are aligned with the megatrends)
Examples of megatrends (1 of 2) 1) DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE 2) INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A NEW STAGE 3) SOCIAL AND CULTURAL DISPARITIES 4) REORGANISATION OF HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS 5) CHANGES TO GENDER ROLES 6) NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY 7) DIGITAL CULTURE 8) LEARNING FROM NATURE 9) UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE 10)TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE
Examples of megatrends (2 of 2) 11) 12) 13) 14) 15) 16) 17) 18) 19) 20)
GLOBALISATION 2.0 KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS UPHEAVALS IN ENERGY AND RESOURCES CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS URBANISATION NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER GLOBAL RISK SOCIETY
How megatrends impact on sustainability ‘Sustainability is like happiness – everyone believes in it and everyone has a different definition.’
Sustainable development Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable – to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. G.H. Brundtland, ‘Our Common Future’ (1987) MEGATRENDS IMPACT ON OUR ABILITY ”TO MAKE THE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE’’
The idea of anticipating the future “Limits to Growth’ (Meadows et al. 1972): the idea of describing the future of the world by a set of indicators and “equations” In this book, the sustainability and its importance to our lives expressed in the following terms - outputs (‘state of the world’) • Resources • Population • Food • Industrial output • Pollution
Sustainability and long-term human needs Energy and fuel Raw and processed materials
Population
Waste and pollution
Long – term human needs
Climate and water
Food
Health Urbanization
Long-term human needs and megatrends • Long-term human needs are interrelated. • Megatrends impact on the long term human needs; usually the negative impact counts. • There is always more than one scenario to react to the megatrend. • The set of scenarios can be developed. This is not the prediction of the future; this is rather anticipation of the future.
The criteria for future scenario selection • What is possible? • What is feasible? • What is desirable
Based on those criteria we can select the most posible, feasible and desirable future scenario and we can prepare the action plan for executing the selected scenario:
We can actively design and implement (?!) the future (this is all about the futures and foresigh)
Future and future studies (definitions) Futures studies is the study of thinking about the possible, probable, and preferable futures of the
world. Futures studies (or colloquially called "futures“) seek to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change.
‌ Megatrends are often considered as a starting point for strategic foresight and future studies.
Foresight (definition) Foresight is a transdisciplinary process tailored to anticipation, design and change management (execution) in a variety of domains (scientific, technological, environmental, economic, political, and societal), on a variety of scales (personal, organizational, societal, global, and universal), and using a variety of methods and tools.
‌ megatrends are often used as a starting point for strategic foresight and future studies.
Sub-module control questions After you completed studying this sub-module, please answer to yourself the following questions: i) Can you foresee some new megatrends besides the discussed? Write down them (you should write down a least 3 new megatrends). ii) How they can impact your countries future and your personal future?
Thank you and good luck!
Instructor of the module: Ass. Prof. Gintaras Labutis Military Academy of Lithuania