Sub-module 5
Megatrends and the Nordic-Baltic region
Module: Environment and Sustainability related Megatrends and Risks
The objectives of this submodule •
To analyze the status of megatrends and the application of megatrending tools in this region. • To identify the key factors that differentiate the megatrending in this region from the other regions. • To analyze the evidence (examples) of those megatrends.
Control questions • Before you start this sub-module, please answer to yourself the following questions: i) Please identify the key unique characteristics of Nordic Baltic region (up to 5 unique characteristics)? Write down them. Think about how those characteristics can be used to design and to implement the unique future for Nordic Baltic region. ii) Please identify the key common characteristics of Nordic Baltic region in relationship to Europe (EU) (up to 5 common)? Write down them. Think about the common efforts of all countries targeted to sustainability where the common characteristics will become the asset for all countries.
Key megatrends for NordicBaltic region
FINLAND: • Finland has a strong reputation in foresight which comes close to innovation processes; parliamentary, governmental, academic, civil society & business. • SITRA – forming the future • Strong futures thinking is present in all SITRA activities. • SITRA’s annual Megatrend list has become a well-established ‘futures service’ in Finland. Source: www.sitra.fi
FINLAND: Megatrends (2016) 1. Sustainability crisis now! 2. Global interdependency with growing tensions 3. Technology changes everything
1. Sustainability crisis now! Global warming and resource scarcity Dramatic decrease of natural resources and climate change are challenges that will define the future. We have to act now. A 4-6 °C increase in temperature would be catastrophic. Solutions: technology + people • Energy revolution: renewables on the way, fossil fuels in decline • The potential of the circular economy • Smart services and products finding markets • Smart seamless traffic • Cities are the key to solving wicked problems: new local solutions with the help of technology
2. Global interdependency with growing tensions The rise of the geo-economy Globalisation, world trade and power politics. New players, initatives and goals and new tensions (“the language is trade, the logic is war“), new alliances with new power and new goals. Solutions • Resilience and ability to navigate in an unpredictable environment • Cities hold the keys to wicked problems • Diversity must be assumed • Focus both on global and local
3. Technology changes everything (both challenges and opportunities) So many great things Virtualisation, digitalisation, artificial intelligence (AI), instrumentalisation of everything, robotisation, nanomaterials, biotechnology, pharmacology, energy technology, global ICT structures, global crowd platforms, blockchain technology. Solutions: use the technology for reaching/achieving the “big peaks’’
Possible trajectories WHO HOLDS THE FUTURE VISION? What kind of society are we building?) • Human, social, economic aspects… • Where it currently hurts: work, polarization, media Solutions (possible trajectories): • Technology as an enabler of sustainable well-being • Return of humanism and human capabilities • Importance of ethics • The new generation will find its ways • The new deal of the economy and the sharing economy • Wider definition of well-being • New organisations, new platforms and new identities
SWEDEN Research and roadmap by Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) (2014) • To understand how to connect the Global megatrends and National environmental goals • To understand the driving forces and feedbacks and • impacts over time • To understand leverage points for desired change • Link the European goals and objectives for roadmap for a resource efficiency Europe to the national environmental goals of Sweden and connect to the Global Megatrends
Alignment of different scales
SWEDEN Four mega-trends (Vision for Sweden 2025) • • • •
A changed climate A globalised world An urbanised world A digitised world
Megatrends (Made in Sweden – 2030) • Sustainability and efficient use of resources • New types of production • Raw material shortages and development of new advanced and exotic materials • Everything communicates • A challenging demographics development • Components with micro- and nano-structures
Megatrends based upon STEEP •
Social – Increasing global divergence and population trends – Living in urban world – Disease burdens and the risk of new pandemics • Technological – Accelerating technological change: racing into unknown • Economical – Continued economic growth – From uni-polar to multi–polar world – Intensified global competition for resources • Environmental – Decreasing stocks of natural resources – Increasingly severe consequences of climate change – Increasing environmental polution load • Political – Environmental regulation and governance: increasing fragmentation and convergence STEEP, an abbreviation of five key categories: Social, Technology, Economic, Environmental, and Political.
Challengies and opportunities
NORWAY NORWAY 2030 •
•
•
Globalization – Global economy – The global village – Global institutions – Anti-globalization Technological developments – Information and communications technology – Genetic engineering and biotech – Energy technologies • Demographic changes – Continued demographic growth – Fertility Cleavages in
– Society – Nature – Welfare
NORWAY DIMENSIONING OF THE SCENARIOS
• • • •
State - vs - Market International - vs - National Collectivism - vs - Individualism Traditional - vs - Inovative 18 future scenarios Source: http://www.subito.as
ESTONIA Possible SCENARIOS (‘Estonia 21’) • More is better? Belief in technology; materialistic values • Eco-pearl Valuation of nature and belief in technology • Back to roots! Fear of new technologies, high appreciation of nature • Vicious circle Insufficient capacity of introducing new technologies; materialistic values and individualism prevail
LATVIA Sustainable Development Strategy of Latvia until 2030 Latvija 2030 strategy design process • Global Tendencies and Tendencies in Latvia • Future Challenges (Threats and Potentialities) • Long-term Objectives • Action Directions (reduce threat, increase potentialities and threat/limitations converted into potentialities) • Possible Solutions (comply with strategic development principles)
LITHUANIA Lithuania 2030 (the process description) • Global Tendencies • Future Challenges • Future images and future scenarios • Long-term Objectives • Action plans Other megatrending exercises: • Foresigh on future economy • Foresight on research and higher education • Foresight on Smart Specialization
Control questions After you completed this module, please answer to yourself the following questions: • Think about the algorithm of describing the future images or scenarios for your country based on the identified megatrends. In your opinion, what are the key steps in designing those future images or scenarios for your country?
Thank you and good luck!
Instructor of the module: Ass. Prof. Gintaras Labutis Military Academy of Lithuania