EXPECTATIONS DOMENIC FENOGLIO associate editor
Past mistakes and recent poll results caused varied predictions for 2020 election
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ollsters predicted an outcome of the 2016 presidential election between Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton that a large percentage of voters believed, but many of their predictions were incorrect, sowing distrust in polls for future elections. To achieve the most accurate results, pollsters aim to survey more people to increase their sample size and represent all groups of the population proportionally. However, the results they receive do not create an absolute prediction. “In a perfect world, we would survey every individual, but we know that is impossible,” statistics teacher Michael Farrell said. “So we try to estimate the percentage of people that feel a certain way. When done properly, you will get a slice of the population that accurately represents what that population looks like.” In 2016, pollsters concluded that non-college educated white people were underrepresented in their studies. This not only skewed the data in favor of Clinton, but caused many Republicans to believe in what they call the “silent majority.” “The polls do not interview people outside of the big cities,” junior John Krell said. “The middle class, or the silent majority, which supports
Donald Trump, does not participate in the polls. They come out on voting day and vote. In 2016, they said Hilary Clinton would win in a landslide, but Donald Trump won. I thought Trump would win again.” This year, polls showed Joe Biden with an even larger lead than Clinton in key battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan. While Democrats felt more confident in this lead, they also felt weary of the polls being wrong again. “I feel like Biden has a much better chance than Clinton,” junior Jeremy Toledano said. “Even if the polls mess up the same amount as last time, he still could win those states. I think the election will be very close, though. Definitely not a landslide.” It is impossible for pollsters to predict sources of error before seeing the results of an election; if they could, they would correct those errors. Consequently, polls serve only as a barometer for the emotions of the population at that exact moment. “There’s a difference between the polls prior to the election and the results of the election because the polls are measuring attitude, how people feel,” Farrell said. “The reason we look at polls is to try to figure out why people might act the way they do.” p
SWING STATE POLL PREDICTIONS (source: FiveThirtyEight) Biden: 46.8% Trump: 47.5% Predicted win: TRUMP +0.7%
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IN-DEPTH
Biden: 52.1% Trump: 43.7% Predicted win: BIDEN +8.4%
Biden: 49.1% Trump: 46.6% Predicted win: BIDEN +2.5%
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