A before and after look at

EXPECTATIONS

DOMENIC FENOGLIO associate editor

Past mistakes and recent poll results caused varied predictions for 2020 election

Pollsters predicted an outcome of the 2016 presidential election between Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton that a large percentage of voters believed, but many of their predictions were incorrect, sowing distrust in polls for future elections.

To achieve the most accurate results, pollsters aim to survey more people to increase their sample size and represent all groups of the population proportionally. However, the results they receive do not create an absolute prediction.

“In a perfect world, we would survey every individual, but we know that is impossible,” statistics teacher Michael Farrell said. “So we try to estimate the percentage of people that feel a certain way. When done properly, you will get a slice of the population that accurately represents what that population looks like.”

In 2016, pollsters concluded that non-college educated white people were underrepresented in their studies. This not only skewed the data in favor of Clinton, but caused many Republicans to believe in what they call the “silent majority.”

“The polls do not interview people outside of the big cities,” junior John Krell said. “The middle class, or the silent majority, which supports Donald Trump, does not participate in the polls. They come out on voting day and vote. In 2016, they said Hilary Clinton would win in a landslide, but Donald Trump won. I thought Trump would win again.”

This year, polls showed Joe Biden with an even larger lead than Clinton in key battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan. While Democrats felt more confident in this lead, they also felt weary of the polls being wrong again.

“I feel like Biden has a much better chance than Clinton,” junior Jeremy Toledano said. “Even if the polls mess up the same amount as last time, he still could win those states. I think the election will be very close, though. Definitely not a landslide.”

It is impossible for pollsters to predict sources of error before seeing the results of an election; if they could, they would correct those errors. Consequently, polls serve only as a barometer for the emotions of the population at that exact moment.

“There’s a difference between the polls prior to the election and the results of the election because the polls are measuring attitude, how people feel,” Farrell said. “The reason we look at polls is to try to figure out why people might act the way they do.” p

SWING STATE POLL PREDICTIONS (source: FiveThirtyEight)

Biden: 46.8% Trump: 47.5% Predicted win: TRUMP +0.7% Biden: 52.1% Trump: 43.7% Predicted win: BIDEN +8.4% Biden: 49.1% Trump: 46.6% Predicted win: BIDEN +2.5%

VS. REALITY

illustration by | DANIELLE ZHANG

Close race in election serves to show another possible polling error

As votes were slowly tallied on election night and the days that followed, controversy surrounding mail-in ballots overshadowed mistakes by pollsters. Yet again, Republicans over-performed compared to pre-election polls, but the Associated Press called the election for Democratic candidate Joe Biden.

Because data analysis is still taking place for the recent election, it is not yet known the degree to which pollsters made an error and if that error falls within their acceptable margin. However, the pre-election polls that showed Biden winning in a relative landslide paint a stark contrast to an election that was decided by less than 20 thousand votes in some states.

“It’s too early to say whether this year [pollsters] are wrong because they are still counting votes,” statistics teacher Michael Farrell said. “That’s one thing I urge everyone: have some patience before we say these results were off and these polls were wrong. We don’t know until we have a chance to work through them.”

While the results of the election are still being debated, many worried Democrats have breathed a sigh of relief at the outcome. The polls showed a larger margin of victory, but this was anticipated after the results in 2016.

“I am not too surprised that Biden won, but it was super close,” junior Jeremy Toledano said. “I didn’t pay much attention to the polls because of how inaccurate they were last time. It isn’t surprising that they were off again.”

Republicans feel as though this election solidifies their theory about underrepresentation in voting. Key victories in House and Senate races across the country struck down the prediction of a blue wave.

“This made me believe polls even less,” junior John Krell said. “In swing states, those were all very close, and they had Biden winning in a landslide. I don’t think they should be eliminated, but they need to be improved.”

It is important to remember that polls do not serve to create a prediction for an election, but rather to measure emotions. They should not be taken for any alternative meaning.

“Polls should not be used to make decisions; every individual needs to do their own research,” Farrell said. “Polls are great at measuring attitudes, but they are not good at predicting how people are going to behave. As long as people do their research, we are going to start seeing good results from polls, from government. It will benefit everyone.” p

SWING STATE ELECTION RESULTS (results as of Nov. 20)

Trump: 53.3% Biden: 45.3% Actual win: TRUMP +8% Biden:49.6% Trump: 48.9% Actual win: BIDEN +0.7% Trump: 51.2% Biden: 47.9% Actual win: TRUMP +3.3%