11 minute read
A Critique of Climate Change
By Norman Harris
INTRODUCTION
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I believe that engineering and science are mitigating climate change and that it should be more recognised and encouraged. I have been banging the drum for more than 2 years with examples of Engineering & Science mitigating climate change, which is much better than banning normal human activities. So far I have posted 265 examples, now a group of scientists are calling for a steering body to prioritise the cost/ benefits of such research. GREAT!!
As the recent, but temporary, drop in atmospheric CO2 content during the first pandemic lockdown shows, climate change may not be such an intractable problem as its protagonists claim. Fuel changes to surface transport (e.g., hybrid, electric, a different petrol mix available in September and hydrogen) are already gaining pace and will keep the growth in UK CO2 output lower than in the past. But note the electric power still has to be generated by one means or the other. I am not convinced that we need high speed trains to take 15/20 minutes of the journey to Birmingham or Manchester. As we are always told for cars, higher speed means more fuel used. Believe it or not the same is true for trains. Like electric cars they transfer the carbon emitted into the atmosphere to nonrenewable power station sites.
Even the big polluter of marine transport is also addressing the issue of their emissions, long thought improbable as it is largely out of the sight and control of individual Governments. BE IN THE LEAD BUT NOT TOO FAR AHEAD.
It is great that the UK can be leader in this subject, but we must be sure that the economic gains are realised and not sacrifice the economy on the altar of climate change. We produce about 1% of the world output of Green House Gases (GHG). The US and China dwarf our output in the range of 35% each and whilst the US under President Biden will now be active in the quest for reductions, China has stated that they will lag 20 or 30 years behind the West. India’s GHG output is still growing, and they have just recently rebuffed Biden and
the world on the topic. Clearly India has more urgent issues at this time. There are many small “oil rich” states where oil costs extraordinarily little and they top the rankings in harmful outputs per capita. The UK can lead but cannot solve world problems alone as we could in the days of gunboats.
GREAT NEWS FOR GOVERNMENTS, MARKETEERS AND EXTREMISTS
Climate Change has been good news for Governments because it gives another avenue for taxation. Governments can tax for it, marketeers can promote for it, the believers can scoff the disbelievers.
But there is more! We must stop eating beef, in fact it could turn into a luxury food to rival Beluga caviar so only the super-rich can have it and not you and me. The environmentalists may even score the Coup de Grace and stop all power station building and shut down the dirty ones, returning us to the Middle Ages. Germany is in a bind, shutting down its nuclear stations after Fukushima, then its coal and now more reliant than ever on Russian gas.
Except perhaps in the USA, few doubt that we must save resources, but many such mandatory measures are counterproductive and add cost not value. Householders have to sort it, needing multiple bins to be collected to help the economics of the process. How much does that cost the Council Taxpayer? And the times of opening of Recycling Centres are one of the restrictions. There are often lines of traffic with a lone driver in their small SUV (engine running of course) waiting to gain entry to take 2 bags of green waste, which in my youth I would have composted.
The economics of Recycling is complex. It is sustained at source by free labour by each household and charged for disposal at landfill by a £95 per tonne of tax. There are approved steps in the lifetime of rubbish and one, product design, is also backed by tax, Producer Responsibility (shortly to be extended into Extended Producer Responsibility or EPR). This means that consumer pays for environmentally unfriendly product design and the Council Taxpayer covers the shortfall at the end of the item’s lifetime. Energy extraction is one of the approved steps in the lifetime of waste. So, Waste to Energy (WtE) is sustainable and requires no sorting by householders and no harmful landfill.
Climate Change is also great for marketeers as they can promote their products as good for the climate and environment and make you feel guilty and jeopardising the future of your children, if you do not use their brand.
I also think that certain sectors of the scientific community have gained ever more generous research grants by dramatic, even scary, headline claims. The UN’s Climate Change Committee, the IPCC usually develops scenarios and chose the most pessimistic and not the median. Those who earn their research grants have a vested interest in dramatising the impact, + 6C just before Copenhagen, it dropped to +3C during the conference.
They underestimate the adaptability of mankind. We already exist from minus 40C to plus 40C. And survive relatively normally from -5C to +25C.
They scare us; make us guilty, the poor Pacific islands that may disappear with climate change if an earthquake or tsunami does not get them first as Nigel Lawson suggested in his book “An Appeal to Reason” 2008 and was scorned for it.
And of course, it is manna from heaven for protestors of all types. Think of any major initiative and some group will protest. Examples are HS2, lockdown or a local development project. There is no problem with protesters holding strong and sincere views (though it all too easy for their efforts to be infiltrated by people with other agendas) but when it is at the expense and great inconvenience of others trying to live their often difficult, pressured lives, some restrictions must be applied. I am thinking of ER gluing themselves to key transportation systems or blocking Oxford Circus for a week with the police dissuaded from “kettle-ling them”.
I also have concerns of schoolchildren on the streets and missing lessons, although these instances of this seems to have receded. Give the children both sides of the story and perhaps more of them will be stimulated into taking engineering and science at higher levels of education rather than the over-populated subjects of media or business studies..
Excessive Environmentalism will certainly take much pleasure out of our lives and could be harmful to our wellbeing, by going back to the living conveniences of decades ago. Is it not wonderful that a carnivore, the wolf, has been released into the wild in the ultra-environmental State of Oregon? They are now prospering and straying south into California causing some concern in that green, but more populated state.
It is all so convenient.
DO NOT BAN
The only ban that should be in place is the one on landfill. We should follow Sweden and Denmark who have a landfill ban and only put 1% of their waste into landfill. The Greens in Germany will perhaps provide the next Chancellor and were once known as the “party of bans” from which they have distanced themselves. They will have challenges as both nuclear and coal-fired power stations are being phases out. So, rather than politicians trying to change the habits of billions of people by setting blanket bans on
what we can drive & what we can burn & how often we can fly & next on what we can eat, it is far easier to invest in Engineering R&D.
THE IMPACT OF ENGINEERING RESEARCH
I believe that engineering and science are mitigating climate change.
The UK is leading the way in decarbonising electricity. But that is relatively easy, given the rapid engineering developments that are reducing the costs of energy generated by solar and wind. Good progress is also being made in changing the fuels used in transport, but there is still a large amount of private investment in legacy vehicles. Electric Vehicles (EV) are not the answer everywhere. Certainly, in surface transportation in less developed, and larger countries, such as the USA, Russia, and Australia where distances are great and installing a comprehensive charging point infrastructure is impractical. It will be costly and challenging even in developed and densely populated countries like the UK. At the present we have 37.200 charging points in 11.000 locations, but 32 million cars on the road. There is no suggestion that changes in fuel will reduce the number of cars. The ambition to have one’s own private means of transport has been constant throughout the human history.
But the electricity required for every car park and even street charging point has to be generated. And the fact does remain that there are dull days with little wind, the Germans term them kalte Dunkelflaute, that could restrict the power generated from wind and solar, necessitating energy drawdown from the still under development renewable energy storage plants or a spinning reserve from fossil fuels as nuclear is not suitable for the spinning reserve, although smaller modular units are being researched. The shutting down of nuclear in many countries is a political/ emotional decision, which some may regret.
There is much scientific research being made into other sustainable sources of energy, which may result in alternatives for the spinning reserve. Experts on wind generation say correctly that there is always wind blowing somewhere, but that means long transmission lines crossing international borders causing security of supply concerns as there is with the intention of Germany to require themselves to take gas from Russia.
THE ROLE OF MOTHER NATURE
I have doubts on whether man is the only contributor to any Climate Change that may be taking place. Indeed, the IPCC has acknowledged this possibility, that the sun’s activity has some impact. We are not investigating the role of Mother Nature. I read with interest the relative suddenness of the last Ice Age, only 11,000 years ago, which physically separated Britain from the Continent and turned a green Egypt, into a desert.
Doggerland is a “lost land” that existed in the present-day North Sea, between England, the Netherlands, and Denmark. Doggerland existed towards the end of the last Ice Age, about 11,000 years ago, when glacial ice in northern Europe had melted but sea levels were still low enough that the area was not flooded as it is today. Sea levels were about 120 m (394 ft) below current levels. Doggerland was a rich habitat in its heyday, a paradise for humans and other animals. Being a low-lying area, it had abundant swampland and water for drinking, and was frequented by many animals. It formed a land bridge from mainland Europe to England.
www.wisegeek.com/ what-is-doggerland.htm
An event quite impossible to be caused by man. Mother Nature regularly shows her overwhelming power, volcanoes, tsunamis, and more recently variations in sunspot activity have come into the frame to cause some variations in climate on Earth. I recall picking up an Italian radio station whilst driving on the M5, during a period of intense sunspots activity.
I totally accept more human activity will have an impact the climate, but the question is how much and how certain. And is it irreversible, or could some climate change be put into reverse by technology?
UK Weather forecasts are rarely better than 80% correct 25 hours ahead, so how can climate predictions 25 years hence be regarded as the basis of immutable polices. Climate Change, manmade or not, should not dictate Energy Generation Policy when the mitigation of carbon outputs, by Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) and Direct Air Capture (DAC) is possible.
The really hard bit will be private housing. Retrofitting poorly insulated homes using gas to heat and cook is a mammoth task, and the Government does not have a comprehensive plan for this. Hydrogen is in the frame for being the “white knight” to replace gas, but it has a much lower energy density than gas, so requires major investment in larger mains and pumps, by whom?.
So, I suggest that we must keep our domestic restrictions for climate change in line with the major polluters, the USA, China, and India. Local groups are already beginning to object to multi-acre solar farms and objections that will grow when technicians coming knocking at the door to rip out domestic gas appliances. The UK is just 1% of the world output of Green House Gases (GHG). The latest figures in The Economist, page 16 Feb 20th, 2021 show that China produces 5 times more than the EU27 and the USA over twice as much as the EU. The UK’s CO2 output is puny in comparison.
As I have noted I have posted 265 messages so far on social media citing examples of mitigations to Climate Change by engineering and science developments. I also send informative emails on Waste to Energy (WtE) and Direct Air Capture (DAC). The former will need to use gas scrubbing and the removal of the CO2 by the now proven CCS techniques. Iceland is constructing a 4,000 Tonne per day DAC plant.
