What Is the Most Likely Hypothesis?

Debris from the demolition of the Grand Palace Hotel/Claiborne Towers building, New Orleans.

Debris from the demolition of an unidentified building.

We now have two main observations to help us establish the most likely hypothesis for the destruction of WTC 1, WTC 2, and WTC 7. First, the probability of fire causing the total collapse of a steel-framed high-rise building is exceedingly low. Such an event has never occurred prior to or since September 11, 2001. On the other hand, every total collapse of a steel-framed high-rise building in history has been caused by controlled demolition. Second, fire-induced failures exhibit virtually none of the features of controlled demolition. Yet, as could be seen on the day of September 11, 2001, the destruction of WTC 1, WTC 2, and WTC 7 exhibited nearly all of the features of controlled demolition and none of the features of fire-induced failure. If the destruction of WTC 1, WTC 2, and WTC 7 were caused by fire, this would make them the first steelframed high-rise buildings in history to suffer total fire-induced collapse (combined with structural damage from the airplane impacts in the case of WTC 1 and WTC 2). They would also be the first fire-induced collapses to exhibit nearly all of the features of controlled demolition and none of the features of fire-induced collapse. Edward Munyak, a fire protection engineer, puts it this way: “Even one progressive global collapse would have been extraordinary. But to have three occur in one day was just beyond comprehension.”

Let us revisit the principle introduced at the beginning of this chapter:

“Unprecedented causes should not, without good reasons, be posited to explain familiar occurrences…. [W]e properly assume, unless there is extraordinary evidence to the contrary, that each instance of a familiar occurrence was produced by the same causal factors that brought about the previous instances.”

Indeed, we can properly assume, based on the above observations, that the most likely hypothesis for the destruction of WTC 1, WTC 2, and WTC 7 is that it was caused by controlled demolition. Only if there is extraordinary evidence to the contrary should an unprecedented cause be posited.

In the chapters ahead, we will examine whether that extraordinary evidence to the contrary exists — or not. ■