Inside the lines/Around the game
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
GAME OF THE 21ST CENTURY
NO. 1 LSU VS. NO. 2 ALABAMA IS SUCH AN EPIC SHOWDOWN, MERE MORTALS SHOULDN’T BE ALLOWED TO PREDICT THE WINNER. SO WE ASKED A COMPUTER.
By LaRue Cook
NO MATTER WHO WINS IN TUSCALOOSA on Nov. 5, a legend is sure to be born. No. 1 vs. No. 2 has that kind of instant and lasting effect on college football. And when the clash is between two teams that share a conference—and bad blood that goes back 116 years—calling LSU vs. Alabama “the Game of the Century” might sound like a cliché, but it also happens to be true. Consider the history and stakes: The Tigers and Tide have met 74 times (Bama leads
Illustration by Tavis Coburn
ESPN The Magazine
November 14, 2011
41
45–24–5) but never as the nation’s top two teams. This matchup of SEC West powers is being billed as the confer-
GAME ON
AccuScore ran 10,000 simulations to predict the outcome of LSU-Alabama, including how the Tigers would fare if they started Jarrett Lee (No. 12) or Jordan Jefferson (No. 9). The results ...
ence’s unofficial title game. The team
GAME STATS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
that emerges will be the clear favorite to win the real thing in December at the PASSING
Georgia Dome, a game that has produced the past five BCS title winners. So who has the edge? Pundits have their opinions, but in a sport that determines who plays for its title based on what a computer spits out, we
RUSHING
thought the best way to answer that question would be to consult the same technology. The Mag asked Stephen Oh of the sports prediction site
SPECIAL TEAMS
AccuScore.com to run 10,000 game simulations of LSU at Alabama, one play at a time, to produce a projected final score plus game stats. Of course,
ALA
LSU WITH LEE
Chance of Winning
58%
42%
39%
Points per Sim
23.5
20.9
19.7
Turnovers
2.3
1.6
2.0
Pass Completions
15.7
10.2
9.3
Pass Attempts
29.1
22.9
22.2
Completion %
53.9
44.6
42.0
Passing Yards
181
118
109
Passing TDs
0.9
0.6
0.6
Interceptions
1.4
0.9
1.3
Rushing Attempts
37
43
42
Rushing Yards
163
146
142
Yards per Carry
4.4
3.4
3.4
Rushing TDs
1.5
1.1
1.1
Field Goals
1.8
2.2
2.1
Field Goal Attempts
2.1
2.5
2.4
Return TDs
0.1
0.1
0.1
LSU WITH JEFFERSON
football never unfolds without a wrinkle, AccuScore also ran simulations that
Lee’s SEC-best 157.4 passer rating, LSU
Alabama’s is ranked No. 1 in the FBS and
projected yards on the ground (163) are
altered major storylines for each team.
has a 3% greater chance of beating
LSU’s No. 3 through eight games—yet
50 more than any opponent has gained
Bama when he leads the huddle.
the two units are so dominant, they
against LSU in 2011. What if Richardson
essentially cancel each other out. So for
tanks? Trouble. AccuScore ran a scenario
One of those wrinkles is LSU’s starting quarterback dilemma. Coach Les Miles
The Tigers’ prospects diminish as
placed senior Jarrett Lee under center
soon as they step off the bus, as
the Tide, the pressure shifts to the
that had him producing 50% fewer
in Week 1 after the Tigers’ incumbent,
homefield advantage strongly favors
shoulders of their Heisman-hopeful
explosive runs and a higher fumbling
Jordan Jefferson, was suspended in the
Alabama. The Tide have a 58% chance
running back, Trent Richardson. Based
rate. Alabama falls from a favorite to a
preseason. Surprise! Lee has thrown 13
of winning at Bryant-Denny Stadium,
on AccuScore’s projections, the junior
one-point underdog.
touchdowns against just one intercep-
where coach Nick Saban’s team has lost
will carry the ball 19 times for 87 yards
tion. Jefferson returned on Oct. 1, but
just once since 2008. If the two rivals
and a TD. Although those numbers seem
full potential, though, Bama wins.
despite his lobbying for more snaps, the
met in Baton Rouge, LSU would have
pedestrian, that total is more than the
AccuScore’s final score: 23-21. Luckily
Tigers gain little with him under center in
a 52% chance of victory.
Tigers have allowed a single player to
for LSU fans, the game is still played on
rush for this season. Likewise, Bama’s
turf and not inside computers.
AccuScore’s projections. In fact, due to
HIT MAKERS You don’t need MEL KIPER JR. to tell you that LSU and Bama are loaded with defensive talent. So we asked our favorite draft guru to look around the college football nation and break down three defensive surprises—two from the front seven and one from the secondary.
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ESPN The Magazine
November 14, 2011
Each team has a vaunted defense—
When both teams play to their
Penn State LB Gerald Hodges
Clemson DE Andre Branch
NC State CB David Amerson
A quarterback and safety in high school,
This senior has the skills to be a late
I talked with his coaches before the season,
Hodges didn’t make the switch to
first-round pick. He blew me away on Oct. 1
and Amerson wasn’t even among their top
linebacker until he got to Penn State. The
in the Tigers’ 23-3 win over Virginia Tech
five defenders. Now he leads the nation with
junior has grown into a 6'2", 234-pound
with six tackles for loss, four sacks and
eight picks (through Oct. 22). He has great
force on the outside (58 tackles, 3.5 sacks
a forced fumble. He beat the O-linemen out
size (6'3", 194) and a phenomenal break on
and a pick through eight games). Hodges can
of their stance, and for a guy who’s 6'5", 260
the ball—he can really turn his hips—and he’s
still cover like a safety,
pounds, he has that
a force against the
but now he hits like
great closing speed
run. Just a sophomore,
a linebacker. He’ll do
that NFL scouts
he’ll be on the NFL
well in an NFL 4-3 set.
look for and love.
radar down the road.
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so to account for the unforeseen,