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COLLEGE FOOTBALL

GAME OF THE 21ST CENTURY

NO. 1 LSU VS. NO. 2 ALABAMA IS SUCH AN EPIC SHOWDOWN, MERE MORTALS SHOULDN’T BE ALLOWED TO PREDICT THE WINNER. SO WE ASKED A COMPUTER.

By LaRue Cook

NO MATTER WHO WINS IN TUSCALOOSA on Nov. 5, a legend is sure to be born.

No. 1 vs. No. 2 has that kind of instant and lasting effect on college football. And when the clash is between two teams that share a conference—and bad blood that goes back 116 years—calling LSU vs. Alabama “the Game of the Century” might sound like a cliché, but it also happens to be true.

Consider the history and stakes: The Tigers and Tide have met 74 times (Bama leads

Illustration by Tavis Coburn

ESPN The Magazine

November 14, 2011

41

45­­–24–5) but never as the nation’s top two teams. This matchup of SEC West powers is being billed as the confer-

GAME ON

AccuScore ran 10,000 simulations to predict the outcome of LSU-Alabama, including how the Tigers would fare if they started Jarrett Lee (No. 12) or Jordan Jefferson (No. 9). The results ...

ence’s unofficial title game. The team

GAME STATS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

that emerges will be the clear favorite to win the real thing in December at the PASSING

Georgia Dome, a game that has produced the past five BCS title winners.

So who has the edge? Pundits have their opinions, but in a sport that determines who plays for its title based on what a computer spits out, we

RUSHING

thought the best way to answer that question would be to consult the same technology. The Mag asked Stephen Oh of the sports prediction site

SPECIAL TEAMS

AccuScore.com to run 10,000 game simulations of LSU at Alabama, one play at a time, to produce a projected final score plus game stats. Of course,

ALA

LSU WITH LEE

Chance of Winning

58%

42%

39%

Points per Sim

23.5

20.9

19.7

Turnovers

2.3

1.6

2.0

Pass Completions

15.7

10.2

9.3

Pass Attempts

29.1

22.9

22.2

Completion %

53.9

44.6

42.0

Passing Yards

181

118

109

Passing TDs

0.9

0.6

0.6

Interceptions

1.4

0.9

1.3

Rushing Attempts

37

43

42

Rushing Yards

163

146

142

Yards per Carry

4.4

3.4

3.4

Rushing TDs

1.5

1.1

1.1

Field Goals

1.8

2.2

2.1

Field Goal Attempts

2.1

2.5

2.4

Return TDs

0.1

0.1

0.1

LSU WITH JEFFERSON

football never unfolds without a wrinkle, AccuScore also ran simulations that

Lee’s SEC-best 157.4 passer rating, LSU

Alabama’s is ranked No. 1 in the FBS and

projected yards on the ground (163) are

altered major storylines for each team.

has a 3% greater chance of beating

LSU’s No. 3 through eight games—yet

50 more than any opponent has gained

Bama when he leads the huddle.

the two units are so dominant, they

against LSU in 2011. What if Richardson

essentially cancel each other out. So for

tanks? Trouble. AccuScore ran a scenario

One of those wrinkles is LSU’s starting quarterback dilemma. Coach Les Miles

The Tigers’ prospects diminish as

placed senior Jarrett Lee under center

soon as they step off the bus, as

the Tide, the pressure shifts to the

that had him producing 50% fewer

in Week 1 after the Tigers’ incumbent,

homefield advantage strongly favors

shoulders of their Heisman-hopeful

explosive runs and a higher fumbling

Jordan Jefferson, was suspended in the

Alabama. The Tide have a 58% chance

running back, Trent Richardson. Based

rate. Alabama falls from a favorite to a

preseason. Surprise! Lee has thrown 13

of winning at Bryant-Denny Stadium,

on AccuScore’s projections, the junior

one-point underdog.

touchdowns against just one intercep-

where coach Nick Saban’s team has lost

will carry the ball 19 times for 87 yards

tion. Jefferson returned on Oct. 1, but

just once since 2008. If the two rivals

and a TD. Although those numbers seem

full potential, though, Bama wins.

despite his lobbying for more snaps, the

met in Baton Rouge, LSU would have

pedestrian, that total is more than the

AccuScore’s final score: 23-21. Luckily

Tigers gain little with him under center in

a 52% chance of victory.

Tigers have allowed a single player to

for LSU fans, the game is still played on

rush for this season. Likewise, Bama’s

turf and not inside computers.

AccuScore’s projections. In fact, due to

HIT MAKERS You don’t need MEL KIPER JR. to tell you that LSU and Bama are loaded with defensive talent.

So we asked our favorite draft guru to look around the college football nation and break down three defensive surprises—two from the front seven and one from the secondary.

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ESPN The Magazine

November 14, 2011

Each team has a vaunted defense—

When both teams play to their

Penn State LB Gerald Hodges

Clemson DE Andre Branch

NC State CB David Amerson

A quarterback and safety in high school,

This senior has the skills to be a late

I talked with his coaches before the season,

Hodges didn’t make the switch to

first-round pick. He blew me away on Oct. 1

and Amerson wasn’t even among their top

linebacker until he got to Penn State. The

in the Tigers’ 23-3 win over Virginia Tech

five defenders. Now he leads the nation with

junior has grown into a 6'2", 234-pound

with six tackles for loss, four sacks and

eight picks (through Oct. 22). He has great

force on the outside (58 tackles, 3.5 sacks

a forced fumble. He beat the O-linemen out

size (6'3", 194) and a phenomenal break on

and a pick through eight games). Hodges can

of their stance, and for a guy who’s 6'5", 260

the ball—he can really turn his hips—and he’s

still cover like a safety,

pounds, he has that

a force against the

but now he hits like

great closing speed

run. Just a sophomore,

a linebacker. He’ll do

that NFL scouts

he’ll be on the NFL

well in an NFL 4-3 set.

look for and love.

radar down the road.

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so to account for the unforeseen,