Climate Conscious by LASA Ezine

Spring 2022

Still reeling from the winter storm p24

Letter From the Editors Dear reader, Climate policy in the United States and around the world has taken a backseat in light of recent geopolitical events. But now, more than ever, it’s vital to restructure world policy in order to focus not only on reducing emissions, but also adapting to the uncertain future presented by current carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. In the United States, the future of climate policy is on the line, as major climate agenda items have stalled. Similar policy issues face other industrialized nations, while many developing countries don’t have the resources to adapt to the impacts that often hit them harder. In our investigations, we looked at the varied impacts of climate change across the world. From severe heat events to freezes, we have looked into a wide range of seemingly diametrically opposed events. In this issue, we investigate the role climate change plays on hurricane intensity and rarity. Later, we look at the human impacts of wildfires, and their effects on communities. Additionally, we investigated the relationship between droughts and climate change. Finally, we take a look at Texas winter storm Uri known for its total freeze of the power grid, but climate change, associated typically with higher temperatures may have actually been an underlying cause. This magazine is a collaboration of our effort over multiple months. Most of the design was created by software we previously had no experience with. When writing our stories, we looked into various impacts of climate change, and then gathered interviews. Each of us chose a topic which we then organized into a single feature story. We are proud of the finished result, and we are especially proud of how the Climate Conscious logo turned out. Additionally, it took a significant amount of time to create the infographics found throughout. No clipart is found in this magazine—all of the graphics are original work. This will probably be the first and only issue of the Climate Conscious magazine. We hope you find these stories interesting, but alarming. It’s not too late to make a difference.

Sincerely, The editors of Climate Conscious

Climate Conscious

Table of Contents Letter From the Editors ...3

6 12

Courtesy of NASA

Infographic: The Climate Connection ...10

What’s the Issue With Hurricanes? Collin Schaefer

Courtesy of National Interagency Fire Center

Infographic: Wildfires Are Heating Up in the Midwest ...16

Wildfires in the Midwest David Dube

18 5

Courtesy of docentjoyce

Infographic: A Drier Decade ...22

The Ins and Droughts of Climate Change Maxim Rebguns Courtesy of Matthew T Rader

Infographic: The Night the Lights Went Out In Texas ...28

After the Cold Rush Joshua Lewin

Meet the Team ...30

What’s the Issue With Hurricanes? By Collin Schaefer

The eye of hurricane Florence looming above the ocean. The storm would go on to kill 53 people and injure many more. Photo courtesy of NASA.

limate change affects all people on Earth in different ways, whether that means rising temperatures, higher sea levels, or increased intensity of hurricanes. When scientists look at storms like Katrina, Irma, and Sandy, they wonder what the connection might be.

of the climate like oceans, ice sheets, and things like that,” Knutson said.

Another part of this simulation is the atmosphere model. This model simulates clouds, jet streams, weather patterns, and of course, extreme weather and storms. This atmosphere model is crucial in the process of long term cliBeing a climate modeler at the NOAA, Thom- mate prediction. as Knutson primarily works on creating and “We don’t have a spare Earth around that we testing models of the Earth’s climate to observe can just double the carbon dioxide on and see what certain changes could do to the planet. what happens,” Knutson said, “So carbon cli“A climate model is essentially a comput- mate models were used to explore what the imer code that’s trying to simulate, typically, the pact of this rise in carbon dioxide would be on Earth’s climate. It has a representation of the the climate system.” globe, the atmosphere and certain other parts After this information is processed it is sent

What’s the issue with hurricanes?

to people like Alexander Ruane, a physical reEven with the climate warming only a few desearch scientist at NASA. Alexander Ruane uses grees, Knutson worries that with even the smallmany types of environmental data to examine est increase in temperatures, there could be an the influence of climate change over several increase in intensity of hurricanes. fields such as agriculture, infrastructure, and “We believe a energy. warming climate “My job is basically to take climate information, which comes from satellites, from climate models, from weather models, and to try to make that information useful,” Ruane said.

“We believe a warming climate increases tropical cyclone intensity because we see it in climate models.”

increases tropical cyclone intensity because we see that in model experiments,” Knutson said.

Modelers like Knutson can make these conclusions because they have —Alexander Ruane, physical research a simulation to scientist Many pieces of look at. But of information can course they can’t be found in this rely only on a comdata from the climate modelers, and Ruane isn’t puter model to make their predictions. They the only one who uses this information. Knut- have to turn to real world data to use in order to son can look at the data once it has been pro- confirm their models. cessed by a large supercomputer and come to “One of the obvious ones is that the sea levmany conclusions from it. el is rising. You know, it’s gone up, maybe what, “The climate scientists have the evidence to eight inches or something globally, since the show that the climate is already out of equilib- late 1800s. And so that alone is going to cause rium. We’re already moving towards a warmer hurricanes to be more damaging,” Knutson said. climate,” Ruane said. Climate change has increased the damage

A NASA supercomputer simulation showing carbon dioxide. This is one of the many uses of climate models. Image courtesy of NASA.

What’s the issue with hurricanes?

that hurricanes can do. But regarding frequen- they need to lessen the damage because an cy, it seems to be the exact opposite. event inevitably will occur. “Now frequency of storms, it’s kind of a mixed bag for models. In fact, the majority of climate models actually show a global decrease in tropical storms with climate warming, as opposed to the increase that they’re showing for the intensity and for the rainfall rates,” Knutson said. Even though these storms may be less frequent, they will be more powerful than before. Due to this, scientists research who is being impacted by these storms and climate change in general.

“We may be able to help them build early warning systems so that they can see a tropical hurricane or, you know, something like that is coming earlier and get the people out of harm’s way,” Ruane says. Ruane believes that we need to adapt to climate change and protect the environment, agriculture, and the people most vulnerable.

“Now, we recognize that it’s not possible to flip a switch and have this happen tomorrow. But moving these targets forward is encourag“When we think about impacts and risk, there ing because it means less climate change,” Ruare combinations of things that make a risk ane said. higher or an impact stronger,” Ruane said. But adaptation is a non-permanent soluAccording to Ruane, different communities tion and he also wants to battle climate change can be impacted in different ways due to their through changes of our electricity production physical location, food situation, financial situ- and other means. ation, and even the stability of their homes. “We know how to change our energy systems. “Maybe the current crop that you’re growing We know how to reduce greenhouse gas emiswon’t do so well in the warmer climate. Or may- sions,” Ruane said. be you’ll have some kind of water resource chalBut you can’t make progress in adapting to lenge where you’ll need new irrigation or ways climate change without public engagement. of growing crops that are not so demanding,” One of the many people that works on making Ruane said. this information accessible to the public is KevIt would be best for these situations to never in Rosseel. Being an environmental specialist at happen, but people like Ruane have been think- the EPA, Rosseel works on many projects such ing about how to give people at risk the tools as clean water and protecting the stratospheric

A wave slams into a village in New Zealand. Coastal countries are often disproportionately affected by climate change. Photo Courtesy of Caritas Aotearoa New Zealand.

What’s the issue with hurricanes?

During the Trump administration, the EPA budget was cut by 31% This is one of the many protests that took place challenging these changes. Image courtesy of Dcpeopleandeventsof2017.

ozone layer. But recently, he has been working “When we’re doing regulations, everything mainly on communications work. He does this, that we do is done in public, we always put out mainly by keeping the organization websites notices in the Federal Register, letting people updated with relevant information. know that we’re going to be doing the rulemak“We not only share information with oth- ing, we send out a separate notice about the er people so that they know what we’re doing fact that the rulemaking is available for review is transparent, but also gather and share data by the public review and comment by the pubfrom industry groups, like the greenhouse gas lic. We frequently have stakeholder meetings across the country to get people’s direct input reporting program,” Rosseel said. about the rules.” This information consists of emissions rates Ultimately, climate change is changing the for several greenhouse gasses such as methane and carbon dioxide. This data can be useful in world and is making natural disasters more danmany ways such as checking how much a facto- gerous. According to Ruane, the world needs to change if people around the globe are to stay ry near your home emits. safe. “If there’s a facility in your town in Texas, you “We need to prepare if the climate is going to can go to our database and find out what’s being emitted there. And I think that’s a really use- change, we need to adapt our cities. We need to adapt our infrastructure, our health systems, ful tool,” Rosseel said. our agriculture, our protection of natural reIt’s not just data on emissions that the EPA sources, and the most vulnerable populations shares with the public. The organization makes among us for the types of climate changes that its meetings public, looks at public input, and we know would affect them,” Ruane said. makes rulemaking available to public review.

the Climate Graphics by Collin Schaefer

The average intensity of hurricanes has been increasing steadily from 1985, going from an average of category 2 all the way to an average of category 4. Along with this, the length of hurricanes has also been in an upward trend. Cat. 5 Cat. 4 Cat. 3 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Intensity Average Low 1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Data Source: EPA

Hurricane Katrina, August 23, 2005 A large and destructive hurricane, this storm reached winds of 175 mph, causing 1800 deaths as well as doing 125 billion dollars in damage. Photo courtesy of Kyle Niemi

Connection Hurricanes per five years

20 Long Hurricanes 0 1880

Short Hurricanes 1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Background Photo courtesy of NASA

Hurricane Mitch, October 22, 1998 The second deadliest Atlantic Hurricane currently on record, this storm caused 11,000 deaths and 6 billion dollars in damage primarily due to flooding. Photo courtesy of the United States geological survey

Wildfires In The Midwest By David Dube

A prescribed burn in Alberta, Canada. Prescribed burns are used to safely and quickly remove unsafe fuels. Courtesy of Cameron Strandberg. housands of acres burned, thousands of homes destroyed. Wildfires are running rampant throughout the Midwest. The Midwest has been hit with massive wildfires since the Bastrop County Complex fire in 2011. These wildfires have burned thousands of acres of forests and destroyed over 2,000 homes. Wildfires are one of the biggest natural threats in the area. Linda Bauer, a citizen of Bastrop County, stressed that citizens should make sure their

property is free of fire threats. “Make sure it is clean around your house,” Bauer said. “Make sure that you don't plant a lot of pine trees right by your house. The pine trees have oil in them that ignites and spreads really fast. That's why this area has so many wildfires.” Getting people to follow this advice and clean up their property is important in preventing wildfires. The more people that take steps to prevent wildfires, the less likely that a wildfire can start. One of the things that Will Boettner, the fire mitigation officer for Travis County,

Wildfires in the Midwest

“All fire starts are serious if they're occurring someplace where it was not an intentional fire.” —Will Boettner, fire mitigation officer does is to inform people about fire threats. He said, “We actually have a pretty aggressive fire prevention program where I speak to community members all the time and try to tell them how to do what we call hardening their home against wildfires.” However, warning people about these fires is not always simple. One of the issues that Boettner has is effectively warning people about

fire risks. Often, people will ignore his warnings about wildfire risks for a variety of reasons. “The hardest part of my job is trying to communicate a sense of risk to people without scaring them so badly that they become paralyzed and can't do anything” said Boettner. He continued, “If I told you that every time you stepped out the door, you might be hit by a bolt of lightning, you would get to the point where you would be afraid to go outside.” The ways in which wildfires start vary, but one of the most common occurrences is lighting. If lightning strikes a tree, it can cause it to light on fire and potentially start a forest fire. However, this is not the most common reason. “We're almost always the cause of wildfires starting up. Occasionally you'll get a lightning strike, but that's pretty rare. It's usually us people,” said Boettner. “You can literally start a grass fire with your lawnmower.” A sudden change in wind conditions can cause a small, controlled fire to ignite surrounding vegetation. Even the forestry service can mess up. Due to this, Bauer had to be evacuated from her home twice in the last year.

The aftermath of the Pinnacle Fire in Austin, Texas. The Pinnacle Fire was a large fire that started near a residential area, threatening nearby houses. Courtesy of Robert Braglia.

Wildfires in the Midwest

“One was an accident by a neighbor,” Bauer as 20 to 30 miles an hour,” said Boettner. said. “It got out of control with the wind. The These fast moving fires could potentially other one was by the state forestry service. They catch someone by surprise, leaving them with were doing a prescribed burn, which is where no chance of escaping. they go in and burn the underbrush. It was too Pine trees are another threat, as the pine windy and they shouldn't have done it and they needles are very flammable as well as light didn't get permission to do it. And they did it enough to float. The Bastrop area has large anyway and it got out of control.” numbers of pine trees, which contributes to According to Boettner, finding fires quickly the large wildfires they have. According to Bauis a very important part of extinguishing them er, Burning pine needles can fly over 8 feet and due to the fast rate at which they can spread. start another fire. Even just a few minutes could make all the dif“On these pine trees, you can be burning a ference in stopping one. tree, have a fire in one spot and it can jump at Boettner said, “A lot of people say, well, it's least eight feet to another pine tree on its own just a grass fire, but we worry about that be- with nothing in between. The last fire we had in cause grass fires move very quickly and they can January started at the state park, and it jumped move from a grassy field into somebody's yard over two lanes of highway into the median and up against their house and possibly ignite their then jumped two more lanes of highway.” house.” While firefighters have been trained to put There are many different ways that wildfires out house fires, wildfires are something comcan be started. One of the more dangerous ways pletely different. It can be hard for firefighters that a fire can start is from a “roadside start,” or to learn how to put out wildfires as there are not a fire that is started along the edge of a roadway. many opportunities to practice before a real fire Boettner explained happens. Boettner uses why these are more prescribed burns as an dangerous than other opportunity to show new fires. firefighters how wildfires “[If] a big truck act and how to control starts to change gears them. and blows out some “They've all been of that black smoke, trained on how to put the there'll be embers in fire out in that particular there. If it hits the dry kind of a structure. Most grass, it starts burnof the time they don't get ing. The problem is the training to do wildthat it'll be running fire fighting. So when we along the side of a do our prescribed burns, road for half a mile where we intentionalbefore anybody calls ly ignite woodlands and —Linda Bauer, grasslands, we bring out it in.” Another danger of to help train resident of Bastrop County firefighters grassland fires is the them so that when they speed at which they do have to fight a fire for move. Depending on real, it's not the first time the wind conditions, Boettner says that they they've seen that kind of a fire.” can travel faster than a human can run. After the Pinnacle fire in Austin, Texas, The “A typical grass fire can travel six to seven City of Austin has been training more firefightmiles an hour. Sometimes they can run as fast ers on how to put out wildfires. However, not all

“On these pine trees, you can have a fire in one spot and it can jump at least eight feet to another pine tree on its own with nothing in between.”

Wildfires in the Midwest

A wildfire burns close to houses in Santa Clarita, California in October of 2007. These fires were some of the largest fires in California. Courtesy of Jeff Turner.

firefighters are able to get this experience. Instead, firefighters who have been trained teach the other firefighters about these fires. Braglia said, “The wildfire division is coming to stations like ours, who are in a wildfire threatened area, but not trained to that degree, and they are giving us further education. The goal is the entire city of Austin fire department being trained in fighting wildland or urban interface fires.” “In many cases, if it's a structural fire, you can pull up with the trucks and you can put the hoses out and you can spray water. On wildland fires, it's much more complicated because we don't have fire hydrants. We often don't have roads. We have to do it all by hand,” said Boettner. Instead, more manual methods must be used. The most effective is using fire breaks or areas where all of the vegetation has been removed. The fire cannot travel over a fire break and will eventually run out of fuel.

Boettner explained, “There are different ways to manage that vegetation. You can go out there with a machete or some kind of saw or something and you can cut everything down, but actually, fire works much more effectively.” Using fire to fight a fire sounds counter-intuitive, but if used correctly, it can be much more effective than manually removing the vegetation. These types of fires are also known as prescribed burns. “We also do what is called prescribed burning,” Will said. He explained, “We go out into the parks and some of the green spaces, and we intentionally ignite fires in order to manage the understory vegetation.” The prescribed burns will do much of the work of removing vegetation, but they are not without their risks. Prescribed burns are usually started from somewhere safe, so if one gets out of control it could advance the wildfire even faster.

Wildfires are Heatin Graphics by David Dube

The average size of a wildfire in 2020 was 168 acres, up from 145 acres in 2018.

Acres moving average 10000000 9000000 8000000 7000000 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 0

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1000000

ng up in the Midwest Sources: ESRI, NIFC

85% of wildfires are caused by humans.

Wildfires since 1980

120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000

11 13 20

The Ins and of Climate

By Maxim Rebguns

Droughts Change

A boat lies on a dry waterway during the 2011 Texas drought. Experts agree that climate change may worsen and prolong droughts in the future. Courtesy of Erik A. Ellison.

ngoing droughts in California crack the barren ground and dry aquifers. Citizens are told to minimize water usage and farmers are limited to smaller quantities of water. Lawns dry up and become brown. Those who try to save them start aggressively watering, further contributing to the drought. With the effects of climate change surfing the news cycle, the devastating impacts of climate change-related events are made even more clear. While mostly coastal areas are susceptible to events like sea level rise and hurricanes, the whole planet is affected by drought. Tracked by the United States Drought Monitor, droughts have steadily gotten slightly more extreme over the past decades. At the same time, seemingly at odds with droughts, flooding and extreme rainfall events have also become more prevalent. In many cases, this rise towards the extremes can

be attributed to climate change. Experts could classify severe drought relative to historical data, but that gives all abnormal droughts from different parts of the world the same weight according to Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon of Texas. He works with scientists and policymakers to investigate and prepare for changes in the climate. “If you define drought as rainfall that’s in the bottom 10 or 20 percent of historical values, then every place in the world would have the same number of droughts because they all are dry 20 percent of the time,” Nielsen-Gammon said. It often makes more sense to focus on the impacts of droughts to a particular region, according to Keith White, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in San Antonio. He noted that droughts are classified primarily by their effects.

“While meteorology is the primary driver of droughts, it’s the impacts that define the primary types of drought that people care about,” White said, “and those are agricultural drought and hydrological drought.” According to White, agricultural droughts are those that affect the production of crops and livestock. Hydrological droughts occur when water supplies fall below a certain threshold. Classifying droughts in this way categorizes them based on their overall effect. Regions like deserts, for example, are found in seemingly perpetual periods of drought, and thus constant dryness is considered normal. “In the absence of an actual desert, some areas are still more prone to drought than others,” White said. Areas such as the Western United States experience drought more often. Laura Brush, a fellow at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, agreed with this assessment. “Regions such as the US Southwest are expected to see more frequent, intense and longer-lasting drought,” Brush said. “Basically, warmer temperatures enhance evaporation which reduces surface water and dries out soil and vegetation. This makes periods with low

The Ins and Droughts of Climate Change 19 said. “Over the Eastern United States, especially in the summertime, their rainfall comes much more frequently from thunderstorms, which are a little bit more finicky, and the rainfall variability is very high,” White said. “So if you miss out during [the rainy season] and then you move into your dry season already low, you’ll really going to be putting a strain on things when you’re still using the same amount of water for all of those big projects like agriculture, which is huge in California.” It seems logical that climate change makes droughts in dry areas more severe, but it also makes areas that get more precipitation wetter. This may seem unintuitive, but climate change is disrupting climate patterns: quickened evaporation eventually means more rainfall, explained White. “This shows that risk of increasing periods without rain leading to drought and increased risk of extreme rainfall events leading to flooding,” White said. Brush believes that this tilt to the extremes will become more prominent in the future. “Areas that would have seen a minor drought will see more severe droughts,” Brush said. “However, at the global scale, relatively wet places, places like the tropics, will get wetter, while relatively dry places, like where the world’s deserts are located will become drier.”

“There’s relatively high confidence that many areas will see an increase in drought as the climate continues to warm” —Keith White, meteorologist precipitation drier than they would be in cooler conditions.” However, that does not mean that regions not prone to droughts can’t experience them, explained White. Droughts are often unpredictable, and even a situation where less rain falls during a rainy season sets the region up for a future drought. “Other times drought is less predictable, and geography plays a little bit less of a role.” White

White cautioned that although climate change can make droughts worse, they aren’t necessarily caused by climate change. “Drought would occur with or without climate change. That’s certain,” White said. Decreased rainfall isn’t the only effect from global temperatures rising. Evaporation plays a key role in making droughts last longer according to Nielsen-Gammon. “The temperatures going up tends to make

20 The Ins and Droughts of Climate Change every place drier because higher temperatures mean greater rates of evaporation. So, whatever rain falls evaporates sooner and the soil dries out faster,” Nielsen-Gammon said. Additionally, climate change scatters the rhythm of drought and rainfall events, making them more unpredictable, explained Nielsen-Gammon. “That means you get longer periods of time between rain events, and you also get more intense rain when it does rain,” Nielsen-Gammon said. White noted that this inclination towards both extremes is gradual. “It’s not like tomorrow, we’ll be in extreme drought, and then the next day we’ll have 15 inches of rain, but those slow and steady trends are seen both in the observations and in studies that model our future climate,” White said. Climate change also puts a strain on water resources, which worries John Tracy, director of the Texas Water Resources Institute. “In the Rio Grande, climate change is a really big factor because it’s affecting the flows of the Rio Grande river and this is really impacting water supplies for El Paso and the agricultural region there,” Tracy said. “There are some elements where water conservation helps, but that scenario where figuring out how to create new water supplies through desalination, water reuse and the like has become very important.” Demographic changes have an equally important effect on water resources according to Tracy. “The growing urban population is creating stresses on securing water supplies for the future,” Tracy said. According to Tracy, people moving into places which frequently experience drought, such as Texas, often come with an expectation of virtually unlimited water use. This change puts unexpected pressure on local water systems. “Now all of the sudden, it’s switching to urban populations and metropolitan populations. And a lot of people who are moving in have an expectation of having a green lawn all the time, having water in fountains, having water in their parks,” Tracy said. And when it comes to drought, many experts

agree that watering lawns is an unnecessary endeavor. “People start watering their lawn because they see it turning brown. But watering a lawn uses an awful lot of water and puts a lot of water stress on the system,” Tracy said. However, often people feel stigmatized when taking actions perceived as irresponsible. “You don’t want to be the first person to stop watering your lawn because it looks like you’re not taking care of your landscape,” Nielsen-Gammon said, “but if everybody is allowing things to go brown in the summer and recover in the winter, then you don’t feel so bad about what you’re doing.” White agreed, noting that personal choices can go a long way in adapting to climate change. “Personal choices will never be the primary solution when systemic changes would be preferred, but they really can help reduce the strain on water systems in times of drought,” White said. Personal choices are also the most cost-effective way to reduce the strain on water resources according to Nielsen-Gammon. “The cheapest way to increase water supplies by far is to increase conservation. We use a lot of water on lawns and landscaping, for example,” Nielsen-Gammon said. However, blaming ordinary citizens for not conserving water is unwise, according to Tracy. He believes more information should be sent out to the public to coordinate informed water use. “I feel that there needs to be a lot more information out there to the average citizen of the state of Texas provided by a whole variety of local to state water agencies talking about what it means to prepare for a drought,” Tracy said. He added that many water utilities often avoid bringing up the issue of water conservation to customers. “In essence they’re sort of setting the homeowner up not to make a personal choice. And this is one where I think many of the water utilities and all the way up to the state agencies need to change their institutional approaches so that everybody is prepared to make a response,” Tracy said.

21 The Ins and Droughts of Climate Change He believes that communities should move the ability of farmers to plant their wheat crops away from a purely technological approach to which is what they’re typically trying to do this climate change. time of year,” White said. “But, moving away from what I call a techHowever, Tracy added that farmers in states nological intervention approach, which is ‘we that already face droughts have gotten used to can build our way out of this problem’ into pre- them. paredness and response is what is really need“Agriculture, for the most part, has been lived,” Tracy said. “It’s more than personal choice, ing with droughts so long that they’ve adapted.” it’s personal and institutional choices,” Tracy Tracy said. then added. Additionally, using large amounts of water is expensive, meaning that most industries are naturally inclined to use less, explained Nielsen-Gammon. “Most industries try to be pretty water efficient because that’s a cost,” Nielsen-Gammon said. There are many solutions to the growing drought problem posed by climate change. Apart from climate change, things like impervious surfaces, which allow water to flow away before it’s collected, worsen droughts.. Brush noted that infrastructure can help alleviate some of these problems, but it’s often difficult and expensive to implement. “The government can help better understand some of the specifics Buckets to collect water are distributed at a conservation event in of green infrastructure and how to Sonoma County, CA. A combination of personal and institutional really maximize the benefits for it,” choices is needed to mitigate drought. Courtesy of Sarah Stierch. Brush said. Government agencies often prepare for exBrush believes that other issues must also be treme events primarily through building defen- addressed, such as the increased impacts clisive infrastructure, explained Tracy. mate change has on certain demographics. “We said, ‘we’re gonna build levees, and we’re “Some communities have even started to regonna build reservoirs, and we’re gonna pre- locate in some areas or stop building in a cervent flooding,’” Tracy said. “Well, the realiza- tain part of their city because it’s in a floodplain tion is that you can’t do that. That is, there’s al- that’s particularly at risk,” Brush said. “I think ways some event that is more extreme than you that there comes a really difficult question when thought.” we’re talking about communities that have been The agriculture industry is widespread in the historically marginalized.” United States, and drought resilience is an imExperts continue to warn about the slow, unportant calculation made by farmers in states coordinated response to climate change, but like Texas. Droughts could cause issues with many solutions to the crisis already exist, but growing crops, limiting which crops can be their implementation hasn’t been widespread. planted, said White. “We’re not really on a sustainable path right “Precipitation shortages can lead to problems now, but we certainly could be if we wanted to.” growing. In fact, we’re dealing with that in Tex- Nielsen-Gammon said. as right now. The ongoing drought is limiting

A Drier Decade Taking a look at drought data from 2012 to 2022 Graphics by Maxim Rebguns

Median drought level in the Western United States during the years of 2021–2022

Key No drought Moderate drought Exceptional drought

Source: US Drought Monitor, US Census Bureau

Key No drought

Median drought level across the US during the decade of 2012–2022

Moderate drought Extreme drought

The data displayed are the mean values across their respective time periods in order to show the severity of drought on a day-to-day basis, ignoring outliers such as a week of extreme drought or wetness. Drought data is taken from the United States Drought Monitor. The US map was created by the United States Census Bureau. Global temperature rises will not necessarily increase the amount of drought across the globe. According to the United States Drought Monitor, however, climate change will likely cause a more uneven distribution of precipitation, meaning that some areas will receive much more precipitation than others, creating the issues of both droughts and floods in different geographic regions. As the maps indicate, projections show that the Southwestern United States will be more prone to chronic precipitation deficits in the near future.

After the

Cold Rush

Electrical workers attempt to fix a powerline damaged by the winter storm. Photo courtesy of Jonathan Cutrer.

By Joshua Lewin

eople had to boil snow just to get water. Many didn’t have gas to even heat it with their stove. Some were out of power for so long they had to burn furniture just to survive the cold. A few people weren’t even fortunate enough to use belongings as fuel, and they froze to death in their homes. It was two days of sheer, dystopian hell in Texas. Winter storm Uri was an extension of the polar vortex that moved down into Texas on Feb. 15, 2021, and lasted until the 17th. The storm caused major blackouts throughout the state, affected tens of millions of lives, and caused over 700 deaths.

The situations you just read about were the reality for thousands upon thousands of Texans. Even all those life threatening experiences from winter storm Uri were barely the beginning of them. Marlene Plua, an employee of Stoic Energy, didn’t appreciate the effect of Texas politicians on the economically challenged who had to endure these events. “I don’t know who had it the worst, but I think this storm really left that permanent scar that all of us went through on some degree and level,” said Plua. “[The winter storm] cost an estimate of 95 billion in damages across the board. And when we’re

After the Cold Rush 25 looking at the most marginalized communi- the rule that they are going to adopt to weatherties across Texas it’s unfortunate … we have ize natural gas production and pipelines to make elected officials that continuously are mak- sure the power plants get the natural gas, that’s not ing decisions based on their own interests, even going to be effective until after September [of without ever taking into consideration the 2023,]” said King. fact of how much harm and how much damMeehan, an expert on the Texas energy grid and age marginalized communities continue to renewables, also acknowledged this lack of weathface and will continue to endure because of erization, recognizing it as a significant cause of the those decisions.” blackouts. Marginalized and at-risk communities had “The system was not prepared for extreme the hardest time dealing with the storm, and weather, both the electric grid and the natural gas Plua, an advocate for such communities, was grid,” Meehan said. “Neither of them were preupset that the state wasn’t doing more to pared for the cold weather. And what you saw was help. the combination of power plants and power lines “The state can definitely do better, and and natural gas supply lines buckling under the they need to start really thinking about [add- cold weather, the extreme cold, and that led to the ing] affordable housing, renewable energy, blackouts.” and ensuring that we are going to be much King explained certain critical areas such as secmore prepared for [winter storms],” said Plua. tions with hospitals had to stay on, while most othCollin Meehan, a consultant at Bird Dog er areas stayed off in the storm to preserve power. Energy, was also very displeased with the However, some of the non-critical zones contained state, but for another reason. He said that gas pumps, so less energy was produced. state leaders are not doing their jobs due to “Apparently, the railroad commission and the their ties to natural gas companies. Public Utility Commission of Texas had not been “The regulator is not regulating, they’re not coordinating very effectively, … if it wasn’t listed as doing their job. I mean, quite frankly, there’s critical, [it had] to go off,” King said. “And some of a tremendous those were acamount of corruptually pumps tion in Texas as it on natural gas relates to energy, … It’s a cycle of and in particular, stupidity.” the railroad comPlua said inmission regulates dividual safety the natural gas would be cruindustry. So … we cial in the event don’t even know of a future winhow much gas went ter storm. down,” said Meehan, “My advice, commenting on the railhigh schoolers,” —Collin Meehan, Texas Energy and road commission’s lack said Plua, “get Grid Expert of transparency. yourself a porBob King, a consultant table gas heater at Good Company Associates, also recognized a and a propane tank in case of an emergency.” certain lack of action from the Railroad CommisMeehan said when it comes to the grid, knowlsion of Texas on making gas weatherized. edge is power, and if one knows how the power “The railroad commission had not really done sources will behave, a storm isn’t as hard to manmuch to try and improve the natural gas infra- age. structure or [make it] weatherized, and it turns out “The predictability is really important,” he said.

“The regulator is not regulating, they’re not doing their job. Quite frankly, there’s a tremendous amount of corruption in Texas as it relates to energy”

26 After the Cold Rush “Obviously, if you can predict how your power ogy [that can fix this] exists and is used for other plants are going to function, then you can say, ‘Oh, purposes today to turn off customers one at a time you know what, we have a bunch of wind, but we selectively,” King said. don’t have enough resources to generate during Meehan, however, is hopeful about the future of the day.’ So maybe we need more solar, or maybe demand response technology. it’s more natural gas or energy storage.” “The ability to improve communications and King, an expert on the Texas energy grid and re- the rapidity, the quickness of communications, as newables, pointed out that both sides of the prob- well as the sort of analytical capabilities to respond lem must be seen, and that customers create too to changes in real time is going to greatly improve much demand for the grid to handle. reliability,” Meehan said. “And the reason for that is “We’ve spent very, very little attention in Texas that it ultimately will reach into the demand side of on what we call the demand side of the equation, so the equation.” we have no signals going back and forth between He was also excited about the demand response the customers and the generators in the market. It advancements already made and what that could just has to operate as it operates,” King said. The summer demand has mostly been accounted for according to Meehan, but winter demand has simply not been managed. “What we’ve seen over the last two years and really the last 10 years, is we actually have to manage the winter demand as well, because the winter demand is getting so much more extreme, and when you have all of the homes in Texas that have not been weatherized, have not been well insulated, and things like that, it is very difficult to manage demand,” he said. “So that’s something that as a state, we have fallen very, very far behind on.” —Marlene Plua, advocate for marginalized Unnecessarily large demand made the communities grid impossible to manage. There wasn’t enough energy to meet that demand, creating a logistical nightmare for the Energy Reliabili- mean for their progress. ty Council of Texas, or ERCOT. “Over time, some of the larger demand centers, “When it came time to figure out, ‘oh my God, like a cement factory, or a steel mill, or a data center, the system’s going to crash, it’s so cold,’ [ERCOT’s] they’ve been able to become more sophisticated choices of what to do were so stunningly limited because of this increased communication technolgiven the technology on hand, and they had to turn ogy,” he said, “but my hope is that what we will see off huge swaths of customers,” King said, stating is continued expansion of that ability down to the that the grid couldn’t keep up with the demand. individual customer.” King was sure better technology is available, and Meehan was also enthusiastic about other forms said that if it were used properly, there could be of technology that could advance the grid’s ability rotating outages instead of certain sections of the to cope with change. grid staying without power for days. “[Energy storage] just continues to grow as a “Everybody on a power line will get electricity in resource in Texas and throughout the world, and order to serve … one hospital, and yet the technol- I think that’s going to continue to be the case.”

“At the end of the day, in order to ensure that we are creating the best solutions, our local leaders or state leaders need to hear from you ... to ensure that they are creating equitable and inclusive solutions and they are actually fixing the grid.”

After the Cold Rush 27

Snow completely blankets a suburb during the winter storm. This was the look of many neighborhoods during winter storm Uri. Photo courtesy of Comptroller of Texas.

Meehan said, “Really having the flexibility of energy storage is going to greatly simplify that need to predict and manage output from different types of power plants.” He pointed out that the ability to store large amounts of energy greatly increases the reliability of the grid. Plua said that the only way any improvements will be made is if ordinary people speak out and try to make a difference. “Climate definitely is the priority issue for just this generation today, and the next generation that’s coming forth. And what I would just say to those youngsters, just keep getting engaged, keep being informed,” Plua said. Plua also said that people have to act strategically and know what to push for and where to push for it. “Local issues are as equally or even as much more important than both state and federal level issues,” Plua said. “Because anything that happens on the local level, or local governance, hits at the heart of a community.” Though they talked about a whole range of

things, all three experts wanted to emphasize the importance of individual voices. “Let this be your lesson that the whole energy system is not something we can ignore or allow to be designed and operated without public considerations about not only efficiency and low cost, but also safety and security,” said King. “Your voice is important, and your voice deserves to be heard. And at the end of the day, in order to ensure that we are creating the best solutions, our local leaders or state leaders need to hear from you … to ensure that they are creating equitable and inclusive solutions and they are actually fixing the grid,” said Plua, making sure to get the point across that individual outreach can make a world of difference. Meehan wanted to send a message directly to highschoolers across Texas about what he thought was the most important takeaway from the storm. “A lot of [highschoolers] aren’t able to vote yet,” he said, “But as soon as [they] can vote, vote, and pay attention to who you’re voting for. Because that’s ultimately what put us in this situation.”

The Night the Lights W Which Sources Caused the Winter Storm Power Outages Graphics by Joshua Lewin

Above it is shown how different energy sources were performing at the time that the most energy was in demand, and how that affected the grid’s ability to meet that demand. It clearly wasn’t much ability, as the graph shows that the grid was left unable to give 27,702 megawatts out of the necessary total.

Went Out in Texas

Megawatt hours

40,000

20,000

This is how much energy different energy sources produced in the time leading up to and throughout the winter storm and how that affected the grid’s ability to meet that demand. It can be pointed out that in the early morning of Feb. 15, the winter storm hits, and that is also when gas and coal energy production drops off sharply. Wind and nuclear also drop off, but they do so far less, and this is shown in both of the graphs.

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (right), ERCOT and Joshua Rhodes (left)

Meet the Team

Collin Schaefer Collin Schaefer is a freshman writer for Climate Conscious who wrote the story about the effects of climate change on hurricanes. Collin’s interests include building robots and playing Satisfactory. Things that he does not like include NFTs and their environmental impact. He plans on studying aerospace engineering after he graduates from high school.

Joshua Lewin Joshua Lewin decided to investigate the deadly winter storm that hit Texas in 2021. In the little time he isn’t doing homework, he plays chess, for which he has attended many competitions. Interested in mathematics, Joshua Lewin hopes to attend MIT and study to have a job in the mathematics field.

Maxim Rebguns Maxim Rebguns is a freshman at LASA and a writer for Climate Conscious. For the magazine, he investigated and wrote about droughts. In his free time he enjoys flight simulation and computer programming. In fact he has created several chat applications. In the future, he hopes to go to college to become a software developer.

David Dube David Dube writes took a special interest in wildfires, mainly focusing on the ones in the Midwest and California. On his own time, he enjoys creating and programming robots. An interesting fact about him is that his right eye is blind and has no iris. David hopes to go to MIT for college, and then pursue a path in programming or biology. Images by Andrew Zhao

Photo courtesy of the European Space Agency