IEA In-depth review of Greece Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency
IEA
Athens, 2 November 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017
The global energy context today
Global energy markets are changing rapidly Solar at records highs, driven by policy support & cost reductions Electric car sales are growing exponentially Renewed focus on energy efficiency
While a continued focus on oil security is essential, a broader approach to energy security is needed due to changes in natural gas & electricity markets There is no single story about the future of global energy; policies will determine where we go from here
© OECD/IEA 2017
A rapidly shifting energy landscape Shares in growth in world energy demand Nuclear 2%
Coal 10%
Renewables 12% Renewables 32%
Oil 27%
Coal 47%
Gas 23%
Nuclear 0%
Oil 16%
2000-2010
Gas 31%
2010-2016
Since 2010, efficiency measures have slowed down growth in global energy consumption . Renewables and natural gas account for almost two-thirds of the growth. Š OECD/IEA 2017
Natural Gas: The United States accounts for 40% of global production growth Global natural gas production growth, 2016-22
United States Middle East
China Australia
Russia Europe - 40
0
40
80
120
bcm
160
Since 2009, US shale has added the equivalent of two Qatars to the global balance; Middle East and China set to significantly expand production to 2022 Š OECD/IEA 2017
Global CO2 emissions flat for 3 years
Global energy-related CO2 emissions Gt 35 30 25 20
15 10 5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
2014 2015 2016
Global CO2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even though the global economy grew Š OECD/IEA 2017
Efficiency and renewables key to global climate change mitigation
Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Central & 2 °C Scenario by technology Gt 38
Central Scenario
34
Efficiency
30 Renewables
26
2 °C Scenario
22 18 2010
2020
2030
Fuel switching Nuclear CCS Other 2040
Supply-side investment needs to be re-directed, not increased; demand-side investment for energy efficiency, electrification & renewables needs to ramp up significantly . © OECD/IEA 2017
Turning to Greece From a global energy context to energy policy in Greece Š OECD/IEA 2017
Energy Sector Reform • Electricity: - Transmission operator fully unbundled from PPC - Wholesale and retail markets still dominated by PPC - Gradual introduction of EU target model starting in 2018
• Gas: - Retail sector opened to competition on 1 January 2018 - Transmission unbundling pending – need to expedite selling off 66% share of TSO - Rethinking DEPA’s role in the unbundled supply companies
• Energy Sector Regulator pursued timely implementation of legislation jointly with other stakeholders
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Security of Supply • Greece compliant with IEA oil stock holding requirement since 2004
• National oil and gas emergency plan adopted since last in-depth review
• Gas emergency plan proved robust during the winter 2016/17 supply shortage, but: - vulnerability to disruptions of the LNG supply chain
- need to make electricity and gas sectors more price responsive - need to further strengthen regional interconnections and storage © OECD/IEA 2017
GDP and CO2 are decoupling, but slower compared to IEA average GDP, CO₂ emissions and carbon intensity in Greece and IEA29, 1990-2015 Index 2005 120 GDP (PPP) - IEA29
110
CO2 emissions - IEA29
100 90
GDP (PPP) - Greece
80
CO2 emissions - Greece
70 60 2005
Decoupling 2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
CO₂ emissions strongly related to GDP development – Greece needs to prepare for a recovering economy © OECD/IEA 2017
Electricity Sector moving towards decarbonization Electricity generation by fuel 80
TWh
Oil Coal
60
Natural gas Biofuels and waste
40
Hydro Solar
20
Wind 0 1973
Net imports 1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Greece managed to integrate high levels of renewables due to a diversified electricity capacity mix Š OECD/IEA 2017
Greece IDR: Key Recommendations • Energy Planning: Develop an integrated national energy and climate policy framework for 2030 and beyond • Sector Reform: Continue to prioritize implementation of gas and power sector reforms to further the creation of competitive and financially viable markets • Energy Efficiency: Continue to pursue the implementation of ambitious energy efficiency policies • Renewables: Leverage the renewable energy potential of the islands through interconnections with the mainland transmission system • Regulatory Capacity: Ensure regulators capacity to carry out reform and oversight and ensure sufficient resources © OECD/IEA 2017
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