No. 4 n December 2010
Crop Prospects and Food Situation HIGHLIGHTS
CONTENTS
n FAO’s latest estimate of the world cereal production in 2010 stands at 2 229 million tonnes, slightly more than the previous forecast in November but still 1.4 percent down from the previous year. n Most of the decline is among the major exporting countries while in the Low-Income Food-Deficit countries (LIFDC), cereal output is forecast to increase by 2.5 percent, marking a third consecutive year of sustained growth. The largest increase is estimated for Africa, with record crops in all subregions except North Africa. n Early prospects for the 2011 global wheat production are uncertain. Winter wheat plantings in the northern hemisphere are tentatively estimated up marginally from the previous year but crop conditions are mixed in some main producing areas. Overall, wheat production in 2011 will depend on the weather in the coming months. The bulk of the coarse grains and paddy crops are not due to be planted for several months.
Countries in crisis requiring external assistance
2
Global cereal supply and demand brief
4
LIFDC food situation overview 8 Regional reviews Africa 11 Asia 18 Latin America and the Caribbean 22 North America, Europe and Oceania 26 Special features/boxes Prospects for 2011 crops La Niña
7 25
Statistical appendix 29 n International cereal prices continue to increase in the first half of December. Prices of wheat and maize are about 50 percent higher than a year ago. Rice prices have strengthened in recent months but are still below the level of a year earlier. Price developments in the remainder of the 2010/11 marketing season will depend greatly on prospects for 2011 cereals crops. n The cereal import volume in LIFDCs as a group will decline in 2010/11 but their cereal import bill is forecast to increase by 11 percent because of higher international prices. n In developing countries, domestic coarse grains prices have generally declined and are at low levels in Africa but in Asia prices of rice are increasing. Prices of wheat in importing countries stabilized in November. n Despite record or bumper 2010 cereal harvests in most regions, 29 countries around the world face food difficulties and are in need of external food assistance.
International cereal prices 350
Wheat
2010
(benchmark monthly averages, USD per tonne) 250
Maize
2010
700
Rice
300 200
250 200
2009
2009
600
2009
150
2010 500
150 100
J F M A M J
GIEWS
J A S O N D
100
J F M A M J
J A S O N D
400
global information and early warning system on food and agriculture
J F M A M J
J A S O N D