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seemed more imperial than democratic. George Bush had spoken piously of America’s dream of bringing democracy to Iraq and other despotic Arab lands. Not surprisingly, democracy from the barrel of an Abrams tank was not the dream of most Iraqis. Michael Meacher, a former Blair cabinet minister, who had resigned in June, just after the war, told the London Guardian, ‘Bush’s cabinet intended to take military control of the Gulf region whether or not Saddam Hussein was in power.’ Meacher went on to make a shocking charge: ‘[I]t seems that the war on terror is being used largely as a bogus cover for achieving wider U.S. strategic geopolitical objectives.’ Meacher also referred to the Cheney PNAC plan and the Baker Institute energy reports as providing the evident blueprint for Washington policy. The allegations of weapons of mass destruction and Al Qaida links were, for Meacher, just a smokescreen. He saw a different possible explanation. The real issue, he argued, was, ‘that the U.S. and UK are beginning to run out of secure hydrocarbon energy supplies … The UK could be facing severe gas shortages by 2005.’ The former cabinet minister pointed out that Britain, especially British oil majors BP and Shell, were keen not to be left out of the grab for the remaining world oil. Meacher recalled that ‘Lord Browne, chief executive of BP, warned Washington not to carve up Iraq for its own companies in the aftermath of war.’ Meacher had been UK environment minister and presumably knew of an unusual memo submitted to Blair’s Cabinet Office just days before September 11.4 THE PEAK OF OIL? On September 9, 2001, the Cabinet Office of Prime Minister Blair had received a highly alarming memo with a simple title, ‘Submission to the Cabinet Office on Energy Policy.’ It had been prepared by the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, a group of leading geologists. The UK Cabinet Office memo was to the point: ‘The world faces severe hydrocarbon supply difficulties.’ It stated, ‘Global oil supply is currently at political risk … Large investments in Middle East production, if they occur, could raise output, but only to a limited extent. The main exception is Iraq …’ The Cabinet Office memo went on to forecast that ‘global output of conventional oil will soon decline. The date of the peak depends on the size of Middle East reserves … Best estimates put the global peak between five and ten years away.’ The report predicted a global peak for natural gas too,
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