The 7 ‘Deadly’ Sins Every GM Should Avoid
What NHL Teams can learn from over 14,000 wins
Areas Covered • PowerScout research overview • The two major findings • The 7 deadly sins • A look at the Oilers this year
The research began in the early 80’s Terry Appleby created and produced the critically acclaimed board game Canadian Pro Football in 1975 and National Pro Hockey (NPH) in 1985. It was in the development of NPH that Terry began his statistical research into all aspects of hockey including player performance. Both games were produced and sold until 1991.
The inspiration…Edmonton Journal October 28, 1998 Terry asked “If
we want players that help our team ‘win’, why don’t we measure them that way?”
Mark Spector’s article inspired Terry to shift his research to finding out why teams win. Once he found the winning patterns, he began measuring the true value & performance of every skater based on doing the ‘right’ things for his position to help his team win. The creation of the real-time scoring system (RTSS) in 1997, and specifically player ice-time, allowed his research to go to the next level.
PowerScout analyzes hockey by focusing on the proven patterns for winning. Using our key research findings, we create analytical and technology solutions that help hockey managers & coaches at every hockey level maximize assets and build winning teams.
Research by retired economist Terry Appleby Over 30 years of statistics research into hockey Over 14 years studying winning NHL teams 20-yr member of Society of American Baseball Research
Major findings come from a multi-variable linear regression on all games since 1998: 14,000+ NHL games 12,000+ player performances 28,000+ goalie performances R2 = 0.84
Major Finding #1
Each position has a different importance to winning
Left Winger 10% (8)
Center 17% (14)
Defensive Defenceman 16% (12)
Offensive Defenceman 20% (18) Goaltender 27% (22)
Positions are displayed with their average importance to winning (%), as well as their average points contributed in the standings on an average (0.500) team (82 points).
Right Winger 10% (8)
Major Finding #2 Each skill has a different importance at each skating position What skills?
Evaluating Skaters A 12 skills approach to rating a player’s value, performance, and his positional impact on winning. Some skills are positive, some negative ‌depends on the position.
*** = high impact on winning ** = moderate impact on winning * = low impact on winning
Evaluating Goaltenders Eleven stats are combined to measure every goalie game performance. From this ‘superstat’, we determine how much of the 2 team points for each win is due to the goalie’s performance, and then the skaters on the winning team split the rest. This is how Point Shares are calculated.
‘Point Shares’ Player Evaluation System (skaters & goalies are compared directly using the following 4 metrics)
• PS: actual point shares = CONTRIBUTION • Points in the standings earned by his own performance and ice-time
• MAX: maximum point shares = IMPACT • Theoretical points in the standings he’d earn if he played 60min/gm for 82 games • Compares all players directly, regardless of playing on good/bad team, and takes into account the different position importance
• PAR: point shares above replacement = PERFORMANCE • Points in the standings he’d earn over a season over a replacement player (80% of avg) • Compares all players directly and excludes the position importance
• MVP: most valuable player = VALUE • % more points in the standings earned versus a replacement player at his position
Sin #1: Overestimating the difference in value between average and top-tier goalies
OR
Key Findings: • Goaltending position is on average worth 27% to winning • Best goaltenders perform ~15% better over a season than an average goalie
Sin #2: Under-estimating the value of a puck-moving dman
AND
Key Findings: • “Bobby Orr Effect” added 3.5 wins to defence position • Offensive defencemen as a position on average worth 20% to winning • Defensive defencemen as a position on average worth 16% to winning
Sin #3: Underestimating the value of passing at defence, but overestimating the value of hitting
OR
Key Findings: • Passing at defence (assists) are worth 10% of winning (most important skill of all positions) • Every 8 assists at defence = 1 point in the standings • Toughness (hits) at defence are worth 1%....most important at center, then wing
Sin #4: Underestimating the value of aggressive shooting from centers, while overestimating passing
OR
Key Findings: â&#x20AC;˘ Shots from centers are worth 3.6% to winning, goals worth 3.2%, assists <1% â&#x20AC;˘ Every 23 shots at center yields 1 point in the standings
Sin #5: Underestimating the value of speed on the wing, and overestimating the value of experience
OR
Key Findings: • Speed at wing contributes 2% to winning (offensive defencemen is 3%) • Production decline with experience at wing likely due to ‘punishment’ at that position • Defencemen get 15% better each yr with experience, center get 5% (up to 400 games)
Sin #6: Overestimating the effectiveness of building a team's attack through the wing position
OR
Key Findings: â&#x20AC;˘ Winger on average only contribute 10% to winning due to sub-optimal angle for shots to the net, and confined mobility by the boards = LESS IMPACTFUL POSITION â&#x20AC;˘ Shooting accuracy is critical at wing as it is 3% of winning
Sin #7: Overestimating the value of the power play, and underestimating the penalty-kill
Key Findings: • Even-strength is on average 54% of winning, Penalty kill is 36% and Power play is 10% • Penalties by players are a negative skill (discipline) with importance of 1.6% to ‘winning’
Top Oiler MVPs this year Rank
Player
Pos MVP PS PAR MAX GP G A Pts
1
EBERLE RW 5.8% 5.4 5.8
36
78 34 42 76
2 3
HALL LW 3.4% 3.8 5.4 NUGENT-HOPKINS C 1.8% 3.6 4
31 29
61 27 26 53 62 18 34 52
4 5
HORCOFF PETRY
C 1.0% 3.3 1.6 D 0.9% 4.8 3.2
19 28
81 13 21 34 73 2 23 25
6
GAGNER
C 0.5% 2.6 1.2
18
75 18 29 47
SMYTH LW 0.2% 1.7 0.6 WHITNEY D 0.1% 4.3 6.3
10 36
82 19 27 46 51 3 17 20
7 8
League Rank:
Eberle 25th, Hall 92nd, RNH 156th
RNH tied with Henrique and Read for top rookie MVP, Landeskog 4th
Top League MVPs this year Rank
Player
Pos Team MVP
PS
GP G A Pts
1 2
STAMKOS CAMPBELL
C D
TB 14.5% 13.5 FLA 12.1% 14
82 60 37 97 82 4 49 53
3 4 5
KARLSSON WIDEMAN MALKIN
D OTT 10.5% 12.6 D WAS 10.1% 12.7 C PIT 9.6% 11.8
81 19 59 78 82 11 35 46 75 50 59 109
6 7 8
SUTER BOYLE CHARA
D D D
NSH SJ BOS
9.4% 13.3 8.1% 10.9 7.9% 11.5
79 7 39 46 81 9 39 48 79 12 40 52
9 KOVALCHUK LW 10 STAAL C
NJ CAR
7.8% 7.7%
8.4 8.1
77 37 46 83 82 24 46 70
Tom Gilbert TradeMaker Analysis (results based on different position/skills importance) Jim Matheson, Edmonton Journal - Apr21, 2012 “Tom Gilbert went from being a top 4 D-men here to No. 1 dog in Minnesota, playing 27 minutes on average in his 20 games there after the trade deadline deal (Feb27) for Nick Schultz.” “Gilbert’s the reason they didn’t get a draft lottery pick,” said a source close to the Wild. “He was incredibly good. They won some games down the stretch because of him.” The Wild will pick seventh in June.
Remember this Oiler game? February 2, 2012 Sam Gagnerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 8-point game
Real-time Shot Momentum
Real-Time Game Dominance
Real-time Momentum/Dominance also showcased on
Thank you If you have any questions: Marc Appleby CEO marc@powerscouthockey.com www.powerscouthockey.com