USB, LLC
USB, LLC
USB, LLC
#0
Contents
USB, LLC
12 US$, MM
9 6
% of GDP
40 000,0
70,0
35 000,0
60,0
30 000,0
3
50,0
25 000,0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -3 -6
40,0
20 000,0
0
30,0
15 000,0
20,0
10 000,0
10,0
5 000,0 0,0
-9 -12
0,0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Long-term Short-term as % of GDP
USB, LLC
4 000,0 2 000,0 0,0 -2 000,0
Transfers Income Services Trade Current account surplus / deficit
-4 000,0 -6 000,0 -8 000,0 -10 000,0 -12 000,0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
400 35,00
Net lending, borrowing and stat. discrepancy Changes in Inventories
25,00
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Capital Payable Capital Receivable
15,00
350 300 250 Real wages
200
Labor productivity
Gross Saving
GDP
150 5,00
100 2000 (5,00)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
50 0
(15,00)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
USB, LLC
Liabilities in SDR 1,7% Other 0,1%
Intercompany credits 3,4% Bills and deposits 3,9% Bonds 5,6%
100% 90% 80% 70% 60%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 6% 7% 5% 7% 7% 7% 6% 9% 7% 9% 16% 18% 13% 18% 22% 7% 18% 10% 21% 20% 20% 36% 44% 64% 68% 68%
50%
71%
40%
Loans 60,0%
Trade credits 25,4%
40% 75% 68% 69% 63%
64%
54%
48%
35%
38% 40%
10% 0%
Monetary Authorities Financial Institutions Other sectors
30% 20%
Intercompany loans
Government
48% 44% 27% 25% 22%
38% 35% 36% 37% 16% 15% 11% 9% 10% 12% 9%
24%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012
USB, LLC
400 35,00
Net lending, borrowing and stat. discrepancy Changes in Inventories
25,00
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Capital Payable Capital Receivable
15,00
350 300 250 Real wages
200
Labor productivity
Gross Saving
GDP
150 5,00
100 2000 (5,00)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
50 0
(15,00)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
USB, LLC
US$ MM
% of GDP 14
9000 8000
12
7000 10 6000 5000
8
4000
6
Interest Payments
3000 4 2000 2
1000 0
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Principal Repayment Servicing costs as % of GDP
USB, LLC
16 000
$,MM
14 000
$,MM
2 500
9 000 8 000
2 000
12 000 10 000
7 000
1 500
6 000
8 000 6 000
1 000
5 000
4 000
500
4 000
2 000
3 000 jan.11
-500
sep.12
2012
may.12
2011
sep.11
2010
jan.12
2009
may.11
2008
sep.10
2007
jan.10
2006
may.10
2005
sep.09
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
jan.09 may.09
0
0
-1 000 Russia $1.5B loan
Exports of goods and services
IMF $3.52B loan Russia $1B loan
EurAsEC $3B loan, 1st tranche Foreign exchange reserves
2 000 1 000 0
Balance: persons + companies
Reserves
$,MM
USB, LLC
3
$MM 9 000
months of imports
8 000 7 000
2,5
6 000 5 000
2
4 000 3 000 2 000
1,5
1 000 0
1 NBRB borrowing from commercial banks
Foreign exchange reserves of Belarus
0,5
0
3 month of imports
USB, LLC Table 1. Relative size of each component of foreign reserves of Belarus (2003-2013). Asset type
Value as of Feb 1, 2013, $MM
Maximum over the entire period, % of total
Minimum over the entire period, % of total
Average over the last 2 years, % of total
Monetary gold
2 319,9
43,1%
5,5%
31,6%
SDR
569,2
16,5%
0,0%
10,1%
0,0
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
Reserve position with the IMF Reserve assets
3 320,7
94,3%
29,6%
42,5%
Other assets
1 821,9
30,6%
0,0%
15,8%
Total
8 024,6
-
-
-
$MM %
16 000 120
14 000 12 000
100
10 000
80
8 000
60
6 000
40
4 000
20
2 000
0
0
short-term external debt
foreign exchange reserves
Gross external debt/exports of goods and services Gross external debt/cash receipts under current account
USB, LLC
25,0
4,0% %
3,0% 20,0
2,0% 15,0
1,0% 0,0%
10,0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-1,0% 5,0
-2,0% 0,0
1996
1997
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
servicing costs for the gross external debt (as a % of export revenues) servicing costs for the government external debt (as a % of budget revenues)
2011
2012
-3,0% Consolidated state budget without Social Fund Consolidated state budget including Social Fund
2010
2011
2012
USB, LLC
600 000
12 000,0 500 000
10 000,0 5 929,5
6 000,0 3 085,3
4 000,0 2 000,0 (2 000,0) (4 000,0) (6 000,0) (8 000,0) (10 000,0)
922,4 2008
(93,0) 2009
(857,4) 2010
2011
2012
400 000
Oil products balance
300 000
Solvents and diluters balance
200 000
Crude oil balance Lubricating oils balance Total surplus/deficit
100 000
-
July'10 August'110 September'10 October'10 November'10 December'10 January'11 February'11 March'11 April'11 May'11 June'11 July'11 August'11 September'11 October'11 November'11 December'11 January'12 February'12 March'12 April'12 May'12 June'12 July'12 August'12 September'12 October'12 November'12 December'12 January'13
8 000,0
Total export of lubricating oils
Export of lubricating oils to Russia
Total export of solvents and diluters
Export of solvents and diluters to Russia
Export of lubricating oils outside CIS
Export of solvents and diluters outside CIS
USB, LLC
15 000,00 $2.5B sale of 50% shares of OJSC Beltransgaz
10 000,00
Direct
5 000,00 (5 000,00) (10 000,00)
Other 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Current account deficit
USB, LLC
USB, LLC