ORMS Today - February 2017 by Lionheart Publishing Inc.

STAT ANALYSIS SOFTWARE SURVEY: joys, perils & trends

February 2017

Volume 44 â&#x20AC;˘ Number 1 ormstoday.informs.org

Inside: History lessons Optimal search methods In search of moving targets

The evolution of INFORMS 65 years of problems, solutions

Ada Lovelace: poetical scientist The first female computer scientist

Sports analytics explosion Opportunities for research: dunking deeper into team sports

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Contents February 2017 | Volume 44, No. 1 | ormstoday.informs.org

On the Cover Sports analytics: dunking deeper How analytical methods can provide a competitive edge to win more games, better manage a team’s business, perform at higher levels and prevent injuries.

18 F e at ure s 18

Search and search again

The evolution of INFORMS

The sports analytics explosion

By Douglas A. Samuelson Optimal search for moving targets: Lanchester winner and Edelman finalist Larry Stone expands his earlier work.

By Peter Horner ORSA + TIMS = INFORMS: A look back at 65 years of problems, solutions, mergers, achievements and anecdotes.

2 | ORMS Today

By Gary Cokins and Dave Schrader Opportunities for research: drilling deeper into team sports, including the business, operations and health and safety sides.

February 2017

Image © Stanislav Ponomarenko | 123rf.com

de partm e nt s

6 8 10 12 14 16 62 63 64

Inside Story President’s Desk INFORMS in the News Issues in Education INFORMS Initiatives PuzzlOR Industry News Classifieds ORacle

16 ormstoday.informs.org

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February 2017 | Volume 44, No. 1 | ormstoday.informs.org

INFORMS Board of Directors

President Brian Denton, University of Michigan

President-Elect Nicholas Hall, Ohio State University

Past President Edward H. Kaplan, Yale University

Secretary Pinar Keskinocak, Georgia Tech

Treasurer Michael Fu, University of Maryland

Vice President-Meetings Ronald G. Askin, Arizona State University Vice President-Publications Jonathan F. Bard, University of Texas at Austin

F e at ure s 34

Ada Lovelace: Poetical Scientist By Aaron Lai Romance & science: The fascinating story behind the ‘first female computer scientist’ and the daughter of poet Lord Byron.

Vice President- Russell Barton, Sections and Societies Pennsylvania State University

Vice President- Marco Luebbecke, Information Technology RWTH Aachen University

Vice President- Jonathan Owen, CAP, General Motors Practice Activities Vice President- Grace Lin, Asia University International Activities

Vice President-Membership Susan E. Martonosi, Professional Recognition Harvey Mudd College Vice President-Education Jill Hardin Wilson, Northwestern University Vice President-Marketing, Laura Albert McLay, Communications and Outreach University of Wisconsin-Madison Vice President-Chapters/Fora Michael Johnson, University of Massachusetts, Boston

Editors of Other INFORMS Publications Decision Analysis Rakesh K. Sarin, University of California, Los Angeles

Co m puting 38

Statistics analysis software survey By James J. Swain Joys and perils: Trends, developments and what recent politics taught us about variability and statistical predictions.

news

Editor’s Cut Anne G. Robinson, Verizon

Information Systems Research Alok Gupta, University of Minnesota I NFORMS Journal on Computing David Woodruff, University of California, Davis

INFORMS Transactions Jeroen Belien, KU Leuven on Education

Interfaces Michael F. Gorman, University of Dayton Management Science Teck-Hua Ho, National University of Singapore

Manufacturing & Service Christopher S. Tang, Operations Management University of California, Los Angeles

Marketing Science K. Sudhir, Yale University

Mathematics of Operations J. G. “Jim” Dai, Cornell University Research

Operations Research Stefanos Zenios, Stanford University

Organization Science Gautam Ahuja, University of Michigan

Service Science Paul P. Maglio, University of California, Merced Strategy Science Daniel A. Levinthal, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

47 Analytics Conference

48 Edelman Gala

49 Q&A with committee chair

50 Marketing Conference

51 Healthcare Conference

51 Roundtable review: fall meeting

52 In Memoriam: Thomas Schelling 4 | ORMS Today

February 2017

53 In Memoriam: Bernard Barfoot 53 In Memoriam: Philip Wolfe

Transportation Science Martin Savelsbergh, Georgia Institute of Technology

Tutorials in Operations J. Cole Smith, Clemson University Research

INFORMS Office • Phone: 1-800-4INFORMS

54 Subdivision awards

61 People

61 Meetings

Headquarters

Executive Director Melissa Moore INFORMS (Maryland) 5521 Research Park Dr., Suite 200 Catonsville, MD 21228 USA Tel.: 443.757.3500 Fax: 443.757.3515 E-mail: informs@informs.org

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Inside Story

Peter Horner, editor

peter.horner@mail.informs.org

In search of history

OR/MS Today Advertising and Editorial Office Send all advertising submissions for OR/MS Today to: Lionheart Publishing Inc. 506 Roswell Street, Suite 220, Marietta, GA 30060 USA Tel.: 888.303.5639 • Fax: 770.432.6969

President

As far back as I can remember, I’ve always had an affinity for history, which seems incongruous while working in a field like operations research that highly values forward-looking tools such as forecasting and statistical analysis software and predictive analytics. After all, no company or organization is interested in solving yesterday’s problems; they want to know what they should do today and in the future to optimize their operations and maximize their competitive advantage going forward. Nevertheless, history plays a vital role in almost any organization or profession, and that’s especially true with an organization like INFORMS and a profession like operations research that are continually expanding and improving their products and services (in the case of INFORMS) and their knowledge, effectiveness and impact (in the case of the profession) by building on the work of their predecessors. Fortunately, from my perspective, INFORMS’ revitalized History and Traditions Committee (HTC) has been quite active over the past few years in collecting, preserving and disseminating materials related to the history of the O.R. profession and INFORMS, as Arjang Assad and Mark Eisner pointed out in an article in OR/MS Today (April 2015). The HTC’s website has become a treasure chest of O.R. history, including many video interviews with and by prominent INFORMS members, several of which were recorded at the 2016 INFORMS Annual Meeting in Nashville, Tenn. Thanks to Arjang, Mark, Irv Lustig and all the other members of this hardworking committee for keeping O.R.’s remarkable history current and alive. While updating an article marking the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Operations Research Society of America for this issue of OR/MS Today (“The evolution of INFORMS,” page 22), I was struck by the number 6 | ORMS Today

February 2017

of founding fathers (they were all men back in the day) and the second generation of O.R. and management science leaders who passed away since we published a similar article upon ORSA’s 50th anniversary in 2002. I had the honor of meeting and/or interviewing several of them, including George Dantzig, William C. Cooper, C. West Churchman, David Hertz, Andy Vazsonyi, Saul Gass and others who made OR/MS history and upon whose shoulders INFORMS and the profession stand today. Of course, INFORMS and the profession marches on, as well it should. Along those lines, this issue includes an article by Doug Samuelson (“Search and search again,” page 18) that explores the topic of “Optimal Search for Moving Targets,” the title of a new book by Lawrence Stone, et al, that serves as the follow-up to Stone’s award-winning 1975 book, “Theory of Optimal Search.” Stone’s career provides a nice history lesson in search theory over the past 50 years, including such news-making events as the discovery of the USS Scorpion, a nuclear submarine that was mysteriously lost at sea in 1968, as well as the discovery of the SS Central America, a gold-laden sidewheel steamer that sank about 100 miles off the coast of the Carolinas in 1857. Stone was a finalist for the Edelman Award from INFORMS for his efforts in the latter search. Finding stationary targets such as ships on the bottom of the ocean is one thing. Finding moving targets – especially targets that don’t want to be found – is a far more complicated endeavor as Samuelson reports. This issue features yet another history lesson – the story of “poetical scientist” Ada Lovelace, the daughter of famed poet Lord Byron. Contributing author Aaron Lai considers Lovelace the “first female computer scientist.” Find out why on page 34. ORMS

John Llewellyn, ext. 209 john.llewellyn@mail.informs.org

Editor Peter R. Horner peter.horner@mail.informs.org Tel.: 770.587.3172

Assistant Editor Donna Brooks

Contributing writers/editors Douglas Samuelson, Matt Drake, John Toczek

Art Director Alan Brubaker, ext. 218 alan.brubaker@mail.informs.org

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Advertising Sales Managers Sharon Baker sharon.baker@mail.informs.org Tel.: 813-852-9942 Aileen Kronke, ext. 212 aileen@lionhrtpub.com

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OR/MS Today Committee James Cochran, chairman

INFORMS Online http://www.informs.org

Lionheart Publishing Online http://www.orms-today.org OR/MS Today (ISSN 1085-1038) is published bimonthly by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). Canada Post International Publications Mail (Canadian Distribution) Sales Agreement No. 1220047. Deadlines for contributions: Manuscripts and news items should arrive no later than six weeks prior to the first day of the month of publication. Address correspondence to: Editor, OR/MS Today, 506 Roswell Street, Suite 220, Marietta, GA 30060. The opinions expressed in OR/MS Today are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of INFORMS, its officers, Lionheart Publishing Inc. or the editorial staff of OR/MS Today. Membership subscriptions for OR/MS Today are included in annual dues. INFORMS offers non-member subscriptions to institutions, the rate is $62 USA, $79 Canada & Mexico and $85 all other countries. Single copies can be purchased for $10.50 plus postage. Periodicals postage paid at Catonsville, MD, and additional mailing offices. Printed in the United States of America. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to OR/MS Today, INFORMS-Maryland Office, 5521 Research Park Dr., Suite 200, Catonsville, MD 21228. OR/MS Today copyright ©2017 by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. All rights reserved.

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President’s Desk

Brian Denton

INFORMS President president@informs.org

New year brings new opportunities Greetings from your 2017 INFORMS president. This is shaping up to be an exciting year for our organization and our profession. But before looking forward, let’s take a moment to look back at some accomplishments from 2016. We finished last year very strong under Ed Kaplan’s leadership as the 2016 president of INFORMS – better known by some as our “Member-in-Chief.” The fall Board meeting in Nashville saw the Board approve several new initiatives and the celebration of some noteworthy accomplishments: • a new INFORMS Journal on Optimization; • ethical guidelines developed by a committee chaired by David Hunt that lay out, for the first time ever, “aspirational” guidelines for our members; • a new Diver sity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) initiative lead by VP Subdivisions Michael Johnson; • our membership increased beyond 12,000 members; • our journal full text downloads reached almost 2 million, an increase of 15 percent over 2015; and • welcoming new staff members that build on an extraordinary team led by INFORMS Executive Director Melissa Moore. As we enter 2017, we have a lot on the hor izon. Our meetings this year include the INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics & O.R. in Las Vegas; the INFORMS Healthcare Meeting in Rotterdam, Netherlands; and the INFORMS Annual Meeting in Houston. All of this is in addition to a long list of excellent subdivision meetings (as I write this I look forward to the INFORMS Computing Society meeting in Austin). Plans for a new INFORMS website are well under way, and we will be rolling out the new INFORMS logo selected by our members via last year’s member survey. I am also happy to report that the financial state 8 | ORMS Today

February 2017

of INFORMS is very strong. Financially we have a healthy reserve fund that can fund long-term, new strategic initiatives. The opportunity to start new initiatives is open to all members via a new strategic initiative proposal process designed to help members propose and implement their great ideas.The following goals were established in 2016 by the INFORMS Board to as part of a strategic planning effort to guide our new initiatives: • INFORMS will identify, recognize and promote the work of our members to show the value their science and practice brings to society; • decision-makers will have access to, and use, innovative technologies and methodologies to transform visions, tasks or responsibilities into better choices, services and products to achieve better outcomes; • organizations will identify operations research and analytics as core components of success and institutionalize operations research and analytics input as part of their decision-making processes; • operations research and analytics will advance society and make the world a better place. In short, we aim to disseminate the innovative ideas of our members to decision-makers and organizations with the lofty end goal of improving society. As part of our new proposal process, proposals are submitted for review to the INFORMS Strategic Planning Committee, and recommended proposals are reviewed by the INFORMS Board (watch for the 2017 announcement on INFORMS Connect for your opportunity to submit a proposal). Read on to learn about some great examples of recent initiatives. P ro B o n o A n a l y t i c s i s a n ew INFORMS program that connects our members with nonprofit organizations in need of help. Project examples include: • Work with a homeless shelter for women and children to provide data analysis expertise;

• support of a seniors’ community center to implement a new “wellness center” program of activities; and • assistance with a family services organization that aids at-risk urban children. If you are interested in helping, visit http://connect.informs.org/probonoanalytics/home and sign up as a volunteer. A new student leadership conference will be held in Baltimore this spring. The conference represents an investment in one of our field’s most valuable resources – graduate students. The conference will bring together student members from our INFORMS chapters across the nation to learn the fundamentals of leadership, network and take best practices back to their home institutions. In 2017 INFORMS will start down a new path that explores student scholarships. Some of our subdivisions already provide endowed scholarship opportunities made possible by the generosity of our members’ donations. We will expand on these existing opportunities by providing funding for undergraduate students to attend our annual meeting to present their research, learn about our field, and meet with prospective employers and/ or graduate student advisors. Our new DEI initiative that started in early 2016 is aimed at creating resources to help us understand the cur rent demographic makeup of our membership, the potential sources of unconscious bias that can affect our decisions, and barriers to involvement that our members sometimes face.The activity was started by an ad hoc committee I appointed in early 2016, and this year will mark its transition to a sustainable long-term effort. All of these activities are made possible by INFORMS’ most important resources – members like you. I invite you to consider how you can contribute your expertise to help advance our field to make the world a better place in 2017! ORMS ormstoday.informs.org

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INFORMS in the News

Compiled by Ashley Kilgore

Top jobs, blood supply and more INFORMS members, initiatives and journals continue to make news on a wide range of topics in a variety of forums. Following are recent examples of “INFORMS in the News.” Operations research analyst among top jobs for 2017 U.S. News & World Report has released its list of the “2017 best jobs” and has ranked operations research analyst among the top five best jobs in business. The new rankings offer a look at the year’s best jobs across 15 categories – from best-paying jobs to diverse sectors like business and technology – to help job seekers at every level achieve their career goals. The rankings take into account the most important aspects of a job, including growth potential, work-life balance and salary. - U.S. News & World Report, Jan. 11

Uncertainty in blood supply chains creating challenges for industry INFORMS member and University of Massachusetts, Amherst professor Anna Nagurney discusses the uncertainty facing blood supply chains, currently a multibillion-dollar industry, due to fluctuating demand over the past decade. Hospitals are now requiring less blood as compared to a few years ago because of changes in medical practices, at times leading to a surplus in overall supply. This has resulted in a relatively strong supply and a weak demand for blood at the blood banks.This gives hospitals the upper hand while negotiating with the suppliers, enabling them to demand lower prices. Nagurney and her colleagues have been researching the positive impact supply chain analytics tools can have for the blood industry moving forward. According to Nagurney, it is imperative to apply supply chain analytics tools derived from industry to assist in both supply side and 10 | ORMS Today

February 2017

demand management to make for the best utilization of a lifesaving product that cannot be manufactured – that of human blood. - The Conversation, Jan. 8

In bots we distrust Despite the fact that algorithms can outperform humans at a wide range of tasks, from selecting baseball recruits to diagnosing illness, many people still have an irrational distrust of them. In an upcoming issue of the INFORMS journal Management Science, a study conducted by three business professors explores this phenomenon, referred to as “algorithm aversion,” and how to overcome it. In three separate but similar experiments, the researchers discovered if individuals are able to adjust the output, they are more likely to use an algorithm. “I believe that this could generalize to a wide variety of forecasting domains,” says study co-author Berkeley Dietvorst of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, “such as predicting demand for products, hiring decisions, admissions decisions, medical diagnoses, deciding which prisoners to release, stock market predictions, etc.” He also sees applications outside of forecasting. For example, keeping the steering wheel and brake pedal in autonomous cars should reduce resistance to the technology by offering veto power. - The Boston Globe, Dec. 31, 2016

Watch your assets! Phar ma, biotech, software and similar businesses may recognize the

inherent asset value of their data, but most business owners tend to be much more concerned about other assets, such as hardware and inventory, because they are seen as having a more direct day-to-day impact, says Joe Carella of the University of Arizona. INFORMS Past President Ed Kaplan provides input on the importance of business owners recognizing the value of their data, and that the more it is used in decision-making, the greater the impact. “Getting owners to see that data can drive new efficiencies and effectiveness, challenging others in the organization to produce quality information, and seeking and seizing opportunities to make improvements – even in areas that one wouldn’t typically consider – can be challenging, but it will also have the greatest return on investment,” says Kaplan. - Inc. Magazine, Dec. 15, 2016

The “Carrot and Stick” approach to policymaking Why do people accept some policies and reject others when the outcomes are the same? Getting the desired results depends on the policy’s messaging and whether people’s behavior is voluntary or obligatory. Policymakers can benefit greatly from the “carrot and stick” approach when describing or introducing new policies. A new study in the INFORMS journal Management Science suggests that by understanding how people evaluate policies, marketers and policymakers can better frame and improve acceptance rates. Study participants favored outcomes that reward positive and voluntary behavior. Likewise, people tend to favor punishing people’s behavior when it runs afoul of an obligation or rule but oppose preferential treatment for those who did not break the rules. - Phys.org, Dec. 15, 2016

For links to all of the ar ticles mentioned above, visit http://bit. ly/2kFDCyd. ORMS Ashley Kilgore (akilgore@informs.org) is the public relations manager of INFORMS.

ormstoday.informs.org

What’s Your StORy? Aurélie Thiele Associate Professor, Engineering Management, Information and Systems Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX How did you discover operations research? My first semester as a graduate student at MIT, I signed up for the legendary “Urban Operations Research” course taught by Professors Richard Larson and Arnold Barnett (Prof. Amedeo Odoni, who usually co-taught the course, was on sabbatical that year). I remember learning about queueing systems by analyzing where to position ambulances to best serve a community. This was long before the trend of doing good with good O.R. It amazed me that we could advance the public good using math models. I’ve loved O.R. ever since. What do you think is next for operations research? I think the most successful academic programs in O.R. are moving toward more tightly integrating classroom learning with real practical experience through high-touch mentoring. Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have only highlighted the hunger of participants for real, pointed feedback from a live person who knows them by name and challenges them to their individual edge. MOOCs are a useful backup option, as well as a marketing tool. I also think O.R. will be paired more and more with ethical decision making, and I’m not just saying that because I work at a university founded by the Methodist Church. As we are moving toward big data and prescriptive analytics, we have a duty to use our knowledge of math in a responsible way. Tell us about your first and favorite INFORMS meetings. My first INFORMS meeting was the Revenue Management Conference at Columbia University in June 2001 in New York City. My first Annual Meeting was in Atlanta the following year. I still remember the long waits in front of the elevator banks. My favorite INFORMS meeting is the Analytics conference every year in April. No matter the location, I love the format with longer industry-focused talks about OR techniques that have generated clear impact for companies. What are the best books you’ve read this year? Follies of God: Tennessee Williams and the Women of the Fog by James Grissom; One Man Against the World: The Tragedy of Richard Nixon by Tim Werner; and The White Album: Essays by Joan Didion.

More questions for Aurélie? Ask her in the Open Forum on INFORMS Connect!

http://connect.informs.org

Issues in Education

By David Hunt and Scott Nestler

Using INFORMS ethics guidelines in the classroom Wo r k d o n e b y m e m b e r s o f INFORMS increasingly impacts peoples’ lives as the use of our algorithms and models spreads and as data collection becomes more detailed and more personal. Yet too often we become absorbed by the elegance of our models and research, failing to consider any potential ethical implications. Or, we find ourselves faced with a situation that seems unethical, and are forced to determine the best course of action without previously having established exactly what we consider to be ethical. INFORMS recently approved a set of ethical guidelines “intended to be aspirational, something members should attempt to follow throughout their career” [1].The guidelines are organized around our responsibilities to society, to the organization where or for whom we work, and to the profession of operations research. The guidelines include 18 topics, ranging from “accountable” to “rigorous” to “tolerant,” with each topic accompanied by a brief description to provide aspirational guidance without defining an exact course of action. The INFORMS ethical guidelines can form the basis of a classroom exercise to allow students to develop their own definition of the lines between ethical and unethical behavior. By working through all, or some, of these 18 guidelines, students can create their own code of ethics they can reference, refine and aspire to follow throughout their career. One way to develop a personal code of ethics is to use the framework contained in Howard and Korver [2]. To illustrate how this works, consider the following from the INFORMS Ethics Guidelines: I aspire to be accurate in my assertions, reports and presentations. Certainly nobody aspires to be inaccurate, but how much accuracy is 12 | ORMS Today

February 2017

sufficient and how can this be expressed in your code of ethics? Step 1: Draft Standards The best place to start is by writing a statement that captures your intent, perhaps, “I will strive to be mistake free, and work to be as close to the optimal solution as possible.”With that as a basis, think about the practicality of this statement. Is it too vague? What obstacles might prevent me from achieving this? Are there exceptions when I would willingly violate this statement? These might include: • How much time and budget do I have to verify the accuracy? • Does every activity require the same level of accuracy? • If I spend too much time and budget trying to achieve an unnecessary level of accuracy, is that the same as stealing from my organization or from a client? • Is checking the accuracy yet again the best use of my time? The conclusion of a project is perhaps the worst time to objectively consider the right level of accuracy. It is easy to get caught up in trying to close the optimality gap, or to overly wordsmith a report or presentation. Or, even worse, due to a looming deadline or depletion of the budget, shortcuts are taken with regard to accuracy. It is better to establish the appropriate level of accuracy for a project at the start of the effort. How accurate does this need to be? Is there a standard procedure, such as formal software testing that needs to be followed? Has adequate time been allocated for testing and checking? With that in mind, an improvement to the original accuracy statement would be:

I will apply the appropriate level of accuracy to every project I undertake by: • Establishing the level of accuracy for my portion of the work at the project start, obtaining agreement with clients, superiors and the project team as necessary. • Checking that sufficient time and/ or budget has been allocated for me to achieve this level of accuracy, and if not, I will point this out to the project manager and/or client. • Understanding and/or establishing an appropriate testing/verification procedure at the start of the project, and then following it at the end of the project, understanding that some adjustments to the procedure may be necessary provided it does not compromise the agreed upon level of accuracy. Step 2: Test the Ethics Statement Once the statement is drafted, it is then time to test it for logic, focus and usefulness. A common test for logic is universality. Would you want this statement to be the universal law for how everyone determines accuracy? Consider a colleague who wrote software for scheduling aircraft maintenance. As you step onto a plane that was maintained using this software, would you be comfortable, or would you be nervous, knowing they had used your statement on accuracy as a guide? Checking for focus involves making sure the statement is not too unwieldy, thus making it unmanageable. There is a trade-off between a statement that is too brief to provide guidance and one that runs on for pages trying to cover every situation and every exception. Longer statements describing your code of ethics run the risk of creating logical conflicts, where you cannot possibly follow two different exceptions. Finally, test the code for usefulness. Think of past projects at work or school where you did have accuracy issues, or perhaps, where you spent too much time trying for an exact solution. Would your draft ethical code on accuracy have been helpful in these situations? ormstoday.informs.org

Step 3: Refine the Code Finally, think about any additional refinements necessary to complete your ethical code on accuracy. This should be done as a final step, but it should also be done as your situation changes, such as moving from school into a job, receiving a promotion or switching employers. Minor revision may also be needed when changing from one project to another, as you gain more experience and learn from past issues. One refinement might involve degrees of separation. How far from the final product do I need to be for me to not feel culpable for an error? If my boss says, “It is good enough, send it out,” does that absolve me of any errors that may be detected? What if I write software code for a project that has software testers responsible for accuracy; is an error the tester’s fault and not mine? Another refinement might be whether or not you accept, or remain

in, a job where your ethical code involving accuracy is not consistent with your organization’s policy or actions. This discussion of accuracy has addressed errors, but what about intentionally “inflating” results? Is it lying if this is done to the benefit of the client? Would you remain with this organization? Finally, what if your colleague consistently produces results with accuracy problems? Should your code of ethics cover this case? Is it your responsibility to speak to the colleague, or perhaps to a supervisor? Do you wait for someone else to speak up? Many people, students and exper ienced professionals alike, do not think about ethics and about how they would respond to a situation until they are faced with an ethical dilemma. Raising the awareness of the types of ethical issues that arise in operations research and analytics should be part of

REFERENCES 1. INFORMS Policies and Procedures Manual, Section 1.2, “Ethics Guidelines,” https://www. informs.org/content/download/348012/3212878/ file/Section%201.pdf 2. Howard, Ronald A., Clinton D. Korver, 2008, “Ethics {for the real world},” Harvard Business Review Press, Boston, Chapter 4.

every student’s education. The recently approved set of aspirational ethical guidelines from INFORMS provides a useful framework to use in discussing these issues in the classroom with students. ORMS David Hunt (David.Hunt@oliverwyman.com) is an engagement manager at Oliver Wyman, chair of the INFORMS Pro Bono Analytics Committee and chaired the INFORMS Ad Hoc Committee on Ethical Guidelines. Scott Nestler (snestler@nd.edu), Ph.D., CAP, PStat, is an associate teaching professor in the Department of Information Technology, Analytics and Operations (ITAO), Mendoza College of Business, at the University of Notre Dame.

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February 2017

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INFORMS Initiatives

Edelman Award, IAAA, Wagner Prize & more INFORMS announces 2017 Edelman Award finalists INFORMS announced six finalists for the 46th annual Franz Edelman Award for Achievements in Operations Research and Management Science, the world’s most prestigious award for achievement in the practice of analytics and O.R. The 2017 Edelman Award will be presented at the INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics and Operations Research (http:// meetings2.informs.org/wordpress/analytics2017/) in LasVegas on April 2-4. The finalists for the 2017 Edelman Award include: the American Red Cross, Barco (a global technology company that manufactures products for the entertainment, healthcare and enterprise markets), BHP Billiton (one of the world’s largest producers of major commodities including iron ore, coal and other metals and minerals), General Electric, Holiday Retirement (the largest private owner and operator of independent senior living communities in the United States) and the New York City Department of Transportation. For more information, visit: h t t p s : / / w w w. y o u t u b e . c o m / watch?v=lq0B6wnAbk0&feature=youtu.be. Analytics Society announces finalists for 2017 IAAA honors The Analytics Society of INFORMS announced three finalists for the 2017 Innovative Applications of Analytics Award (IAAA) sponsored by Caterpillar and the Society. Scott Grasman of Rochester Institute of Technology chaired the judging committee. The finalists will present their projects at the 2017 INFORMS Conference on Analytics & Operations Research (http://meetings2.informs.org/ wordpress/analytics2017/) in Las Vegas in April.The finalists include: • “Audience Targeting Solutions Powered by Advanced Analytics,” Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. • “Combining Multi-Criteria Analysis with Interactive Visualization and 14 | ORMS Today

February 2017

Real Time Sensitivity Simulations to Support the Regeneration Process of Disused Railways,” London School of Economics and Political Science • “Assurance of Supply Center – Excellence through Supply Network Optimization,” Caterpillar The flagship competition of the Analytics Society, the award recognizes the creative and unique application of a combination of analytical techniques in a new area.The award promotes the awareness and value of the creative combination of analytics techniques in unusual applications to provide insights and business value. Directors of academic analytics programs to meet in Las Vegas What are your biggest challenges as the director of a university analytics program? Chances are you’re not alone, and many of your fellow program directors share the same challenges and more. Analytics program directors from across the country will gather in Las Vegas on April 1 for the inaugural Meeting of Analytics Program Directors (MAPD) sponsored by INFORMS. The meeting is designed to provide a forum for discussion, networking and the sharing of best practices among academic analytics program directors.The goal is to provide a platform for the types of exchanges that will raise the bar for all analytics programs and ultimately lead to better outcomes for students.The meeting is free; to register, visit: http://meetings2.infor ms.org/ wordpress/analytics2017/meeting-ofanalytics-program-directors/. MAPD will be held at Caesars Palace in conjunction with the 2017 INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics & O.R., an attractive option for anyone engaged in the business analytics arena. Essential practice skills workshop set for Seattle in April The INFORMS Continuing Education program will be back on the road in 2017,

with the first stop in Seattle on April 5-6 when Patrick Noonan will conduct a twoday “Essential Practice Skills for High-Impact Analytics Projects” workshop at Seattle Pacific University. Attendees will learn practical frameworks and systematic processes for addressing complex, real-world problems and how to facilitate effective action. To learn more about the workshop and to register, visit: https://www.informs.org/ Certification-Continuing-Ed/INFORMSContinuing-Education/Essential-PracticeSkills-for-High-Impact-Analytics-Projects. Applications for 2017 Daniel H. Wagner Prize now open Applications for the 2017 Daniel H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice are now open. A two-page abstract in English that provides evidence of mathematical development, solution, unique new algorithm or series of coherent advances developed in conjunction with an application is due by May 1. To learn more, visit: https://www.informs.org/RecognizeExcellence/INFORMS-Prizes-Awards/ Daniel-H.-Wagner-Prize-for-Excellencein-Operations-Research-Practice/. Pro Bono Analytics program accepting volunteers Make a difference in underserved communities by volunteering your time and talents to the INFORMS Pro Bono Analytics program.The program gives nonprofit organizations the opportunity to work with analytics professionals on a volunteer basis to help solve challenges and create new opportunities for success with the scientific process of transforming data into insight. The initiative matches INFORMS’ analytics professional volunteers with nonprofit organizations that would benefit from advanced analytics and operations research training and techniques. By focusing on current analytics issues as they relate to non-profit organizations, the Pro Bono Analytics team will be able to take the necessary steps in assisting to solve the most complex of issues. Volunteer opportunities are constantly being added.To learn more, visit: connect. informs.org/probonoanalytics/home. ORMS ormstoday.informs.org

DATA ANALYTICA CEREBRUM understanding the underlying methodology and mindset of how to approach and handle data is one of the most important things analytics professionals need to know. informS intensive classroom courses will help enhance the skills, tools, and methods you need to make your projects a success.

SAMPLING BIAS PRESCRIPTIVE PREDICTIVE STOCHASTIC MODELS NON-TECHNICAL DECISION MAKERS

UNSTRUCTURED PROBLEMS

REGRESSION OPTIMIZATION vs. SIMULATION DISPARATE INFORMATION

UPCOMING CLASS:

essential practice skills for high-impact analytics projects april 5–6, 2017 | 8:30am–4:30pm seattle pacific university seattle, wa

limited seating available. Register at www.informs.org/continuinged

CHART1

PuzzlOR

John Toczek

puzzlor@gmail.com

Any port in a storm There is significant danger to boats caught out in the open sea during a storm. Ideally, boats will dock before the storm hits and wait it out. The map shows 20 orange boats out at sea. With a storm approaching, each boat needs to be directed to one of three docks. Docks have a limited number of spaces available for boats (indicated by the rectangular spaces). Altogether, there are 20 boat spaces available. The boats are clustered into three areas, and each area varies in distance to the docks (as indicated by the black arrows). All boats must be assigned to one unique space in a dock. Question: What is the minimum possible total distance traveled by all boats to the docks? Send your answer to puzzlor@gmail.com by April 15. The winner, chosen randomly from correct answers, will receive a $25 Amazon Gift Card. Past questions and answers can be found at puzzlor.com. ORMS

Twenty boats and 20 docks: Which boat goes where?

John Toczek earned his BSc. in chemical engineering at Drexel University (1996) and his MSc. in operations research from Virginia Commonwealth University (2005).

THE ODDS ARE IN YOUR FAVOR AT ANALYTICS 2017! Exhibitor and Sponsorship Opportunities at the 2017 INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics and Operations Research. This premier Analytics conference draws 800+ practitioners for three days of networking, professional development & intensive learning. For Sponsorship and Exhibitor details visit: http://meetings.informs.org/analytics2017

Contact: Olivia Schmitz INFORMS Exhibit & Sponsorship Sales Manager Olivia.Schmitz@informs.org 443.757.3539

CAESARS PALACE, LAS VEGAS APRIL 2-4, 2017 16 | ORMS Today

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What’s Your StORy? Christian Blanco PhD Candidate in Decision, Operations and Technology Management University of California Los Angeles INFORMS member since 2013 What prompted you to enter this field? Why? Dan Kammen, my research advisor in undergrad, had a huge influence on my career. I have always been interested in solving environmental issues, but I was not yet sure how I can use my technical training to do so. Dan saw that my research interest was a good fit in his research team, so he invited me to join his group. We developed a mixed-integer linear program to identify the lowest cost combination of conventional (e.g., coal, nuclear, and gas) and renewable (e.g., wind, water, and solar) energy that will meet energy demand and other carbon-related policies. It was my first exposure in using math programming with energy resource data to identify the least-expensive way to meet the goals of a low-carbon economy. I was convinced that there were a lot of opportunities to explore environmental issues within operations management (OM). What advice do you have for new students entering this field? Including how you handle work/life/school balance. I have two recommendations. 1) Interact with members of the industry. I’m not just referring to a one-time interview, but if possible, build a good rapport with members of the industry. This relationship can be beneficial in all stages of research. In the early stages, they can help you identify the problems that matter most to them. In the later stages, they can help validate your results and findings. 2) Don’t forget about your health. I feel (although I don’t have the data to support it) that I am more productive when I am healthy. I enjoy swimming and running. There are times that I have to let those go because it just gets too busy, but I try to squeeze in short runs even when I get busy. I sometimes get good ideas while I’m swimming or running! How did you spend the holidays? I spent my holidays with my family in San Francisco. I spent my free time building Legos and reading Letters to a Young Scientist by Edward O. Wilson.

More questions for Christian? Ask him in the Open Forum on INFORMS Connect!

http://connect.informs.org

Search & research

Metron software detects a moving submarine in a high false alarm environment. Source: Metron

Optimal search for moving targets: Lanchester Prize winner and Edelman Award finalist Larry Stone expands his earlier work.

By Douglas A. Samuelson

18 | ORMS Today

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Sometimes it takes a while to write up a good piece of work, including the pesky details. Lawrence (“Larry”) Stone knows all about that. He’s been working on optimal search since 1968, and wrote a classic book on search that dealt mostly with stationary targets. He soon found additional results on moving targets. It was just this past year, however, that he and his co-authors Johannes Royset and Alan Washburn finally pulled the new results together into a book, “Optimal Search for Moving Targets,” and into print [1]. Stone joined Daniel Wagner Associates in July 1967 with a fresh Ph.D. in math, having written a dissertation on stochastic processes used in underwater detection. One reason he joined Wagner Associates was that Tony Richardson, who also worked for the company, told Stone about reporting to an admiral every day during the search for a lost H-bomb that had fallen from Lawrence (“Larry”) Stone a B-52 into the ocean near Palomares, Spain, in 1964. In May 1968, the nuclear submarine USS Scorpion was lost at sea and John Craven (who worked with Richardson on the H-Bomb search) was put in charge of the analysis group for the search. Craven asked Richardson to come to his office in Silver Spring, Md., and Richardson asked Stone to accompany him. During the meeting, Craven and a retired submarine captain, Frank Andrews, described scenarios for the loss of the Scorpion. Richardson was assigned the task of using these scenarios to produce a probability map for the location of the wreck. ormstoday.informs.org

Upon ascertaining that Stone had a passport, Craven directed him to fly to the Azores the next evening and to join the scientists aboard the Naval Research Laboratory vessel USNS Mizar, which was searching for the wreck near the Azores. Stone spent the next seven weeks at sea providing advice on where to search. He was relieved by a series of analysts from Wagner Associates as the search dragged on. The sensors were poor, particularly the side-looking sonar, and the team had trouble navigating the search sled. The only sensor that worked well was a camera, but it had limited range. Eventually, though, in October, the team found the wreck within 200 yards of the highestprobability cell in the map prepared by Richardson. “After the search,” Stone recounts,“Tony obtained an Office of Naval Research (ONR) contract to study search theory. I received about 10 years of support from ONR, became an expert and published a book on search theory [2]. At that time, the available results applied mostly to stationary targets.We could find optimal moving target plans only for two-cell Markovian motion and something called conditionally deterministic motion. People had obtained necessary conditions for targets that moved according to a diffusion process such as Brownian motion, but we were not able to use these conditions to find optimal plans. Alan Washburn, of the Naval Postgraduate School, obtained a different set of necessary conditions for optimality for a simple discrete-time, onedimensional target motion in a discrete state space.” As a referee, Stone suggested trying to solve the problem for a discrete-time Markov Chain motion model, but Washburn replied that he didn’t see how to do that. Stone next suggested to Scott Brown, at Wagner Associates, that the problem of finding an optimal plan for searching for a moving target over a fixed time period [0, T] in discrete time and space might be approached as a convex programming problem. Brown responded with the idea that the convex program could be made more efficient by, at each time step, allocating search effort so that it is optimal for the stationary target problem obtained by computing the posterior distribution at that time given failure to detect at all other times. Brown suggested that one proceed through time in forward fashion until time T and then return to time 0 and repeat the process. He showed that this forward and backward process converges to the optimal plan for discrete time and space target motions. Brown submitted these results to the journal Operations Research; more than two years went by without a response from the referees. Meanwhile, Stone co-chaired a NATO search conference in 1979, and Brown presented the results there and discussed them with influential colleagues. Shortly after that the paper was accepted for publication.Washburn added

Helping to find the USS Scorpion, which was mysteriously lost at sea in 1968, helped launch Larry Stone’s career in search theory. Source: Wikipedia

a way to calculate an upper bound on the difference in probability of detection from a plan obtained in Brown’s recursion and the optimal plan. It turned out that it doesn’t take many passes to get close to optimal. Washburn generalized Brown’s result to obtain a class of forward and backward (FAB) algorithms with applications to a number of other problems. Stone generalized these results to find necessary and sufficient conditions for an optimal plan for any combination of continuous or discrete time and space and also expanded the class of detection functions that could be used beyond the exponential or random search detection function assumed in previous moving target results. One of the major assumptions in all of these results is that search effort can be distributed in space as finely as desired and that the placement of search effort at one time period does not constrain where you can place search at any other period.When such constraints are present one has a much more difficult problem to solve.This is called the constrained searcher path problem. Stone’s coauthor Johannes Royset and his colleagues have made major progress on solving this problem in operationally realistic cases. This progress is reported in two chapters of “Optimal Search for Moving Targets.”

Looking for a raft

would likely maximize the

probability of detection, looking in the

open water gives a

better chance of saving the

person’s life.

Extensions to Detecting Submarines “In the 1970s, we and others started looking at applications to anti-submarine warfare (ASW), Stone continues. “For example, searches for Soviet ballistic missile submarines were cued by detections from our long-range underwater sonar system, SOSUS. The Navy would then send out a mission, an aircraft planting a field of sonobuoys, to redetect and localize the submarine.We developed an approach to planning these missions based on computing optimal search plans for a sequence of missions using a variation of the recursion developed by Brown.We implemented February 2017

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Search Theory this computer planning system for ASW patrol aircraft operating in the Pacific. “In the process of developing and testing the system, there was a time when both the new computer system and the existing manual planning system were being used.We took advantage of this to compare the effectiveness of searches planned with and without using our program and found that the detection probability was about twice as high when it was used. All this work was done by 1980-81 or so, but we never got around to writing it up in a coherent fashion.We published some papers but never pulled it all together. I thought about pulling these results together for about 30 years, and finally did it starting in 2014.” The result was the book “Optimal Search for Moving Targets” [1] published in 2016. Mine Clearance and a Sojourn in Suez The 1973 Yom Kippur War thrust Stone into a new problem area: clearing unexploded ordnance. One of the sweeteners then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger had thrown into the peace agreement that he negotiated between Israel and Egypt was help for the Egyptians in clearing out the unexploded ordnance that had been dumped into the Suez Canal. In 1974, Wagner Associates got a contract to help the U.S. Navy provide this promised help. Richardson and Tom Corwin, a new Ph.D. from Princeton, tackled this problem, structuring it as first a search problem, then a clearance problem, and then a problem of estimating how well the canal had been cleared. Richardson and Corwin provided the initial on-scene analysis followed by a sequence of analysts from Wagner Associates. Stone was one of the later ones. “We had to deal with rough conditions,” Stone notes.“Kissinger promised the Egyptians that our people would stay in their hotels and eat at their restaurants . . . while the Russians and French were on ships.We were staying in Port Said, where we had only a couple of hours of water per day. Everyone got sick.Then we got moved to Ismailia, where the Canal Company’s headquarters was located.That was pretty good.”

Larry Stone was a member of the team that located the sunken steamer SS Central America and its cargo of gold. Source: Wikipedia

20 | ORMS Today

February 2017

For the Scorpion search, Stone relied on a handbook of math tables, a slide rule and a small desktop calculator. Just five and a half years later, at Suez, the team had HP-35 hand-held programmable calculators and a programmable (in machine language) Wang desktop calculator. This made possible a major technology change, with most of the heavy computation done onsite. Detection and Tracking, Search and Rescue, and Corporate Management In the early 1970s, Richardson, whom Stone credits with teaching him operations research, convinced the U.S. Coast Guard to contract with Wagner Associates to develop a search planning system (Computer Assisted Search Program) to help find people and boats missing at sea.This typically involved modeling the drift of the search object.The approach Richardson developed was to generate Monte Carlo paths from estimates of winds and currents to represent the drift and then allocate search based on the resulting probability map. If a search failed, the system computed the posterior probability map based on failure to detect and drifted the paths to the next search time. It then allocated the next increment of search based on this distribution. “It was like what’s now called a particle filter,” Stone explains.“We’d done the earliest version around 1974. In applications later developed for the Navy, we used resampling to update the Monte Carlo tracker for detections, such as the ones obtained from the SOSUS system.We think it was the first operational use of a particle filter. In the late 1990s, Neil Gordon, who I believe was in the United Kingdom at the time, rediscovered particle filters and developed and popularized the method with modern computers.” And why the nearly 30-year wait to write a book on moving targets? Stone joined Metron in 1986 and became absorbed in getting Metron going. Metron, a Wagner Associates spin-off, was founded byTom Corwin in 1984.There Stone became interested in detection and tracking problems, which are in some ways very similar to search problems but in other ways different. Stone worked on the detection and tracking of submarines and developed a multiple-target tracking system for the Navy’s underwater surveillance system, but the tracker was never implemented because the USSR collapsed and the Navy lost interest in tracking Soviet submarines. Fortunately, Metron obtained a contract from the Office of Naval Research to investigate multiple-target tracking as a Bayesian inference problem. Based on that work, Stone coauthored a book, “Bayesian Multiple Target Tracking,” published in 1999, with a second edition in 2014 [5], that occupied a lot of his time. Also in the mid- to late- 1980s, Metron was heavily involved in producing the probability map ormstoday.informs.org

for the search for the S.S. Central America, a ship that sank in a hurricane off South Carolina in 1857, carrying a massive cargo of gold from the California gold rush. The search team discovered the ship in 1987, and in 1988 the team brought more than one ton of gold recovered from the ship into port in Norfolk, Va. This work was named an Edelman Award finalist in 1991 [6]. But, of course, this was a search for a stationary target and did not involve developing new search theory. About 2005, Metron had a chance to help the U.S. Coast Guard completely redo its search and rescue planning program, now called the Search and Rescue Optimal Planning System (SAROPS). Metron developed the portion of SAROPS that produces probability maps and recommends search plans; other companies provided the user interface and developed the data server that incorporated meteorological data from all over the world.The system was implemented in 2007. It was enabled by computer capability, but also by some theoretical developments: When searching for a person in the water, you want to maximize the probability of detecting the person alive, not just the probability of detection. As an example, suppose that you are searching for a person who maybe in the water or a raft. Initially searching for the raft possibility would likely maximize the probability of detection, but searching first for the person in the water possibility gives a better chance of saving the person’s life. Stone’s pursuit of his earlier research also suffered from the distraction of his increasing executive involvement in Metron, culminating in serving as CEO from 2004 to 2009. Back to Moving Targets at Last Stone has now had a few years to reflect, review and add to his earlier classic work. (The 1975 book won a Lanchester Prize for the best O.R. work published in English.) Asked whether he hoped for another Lanchester Prize this time, and whether he would like a review in Interfaces, Stone says, “You know, you’d have to read it first.” This turned out to be a genuine caution, not a comment on some reviewers’ penchant for sloppy work. It’s definitely not a beach read, even for advanced probability modelers. The math rises to daunting levels, and the assumptions are subject to lively disagreement once you understand enough to recognize them. “I had lots of disagreements with Bernard Koopman (the founder of search theory who wrote a classic report on search theory in 1946 and several important papers in the 1950s) about the ‘Theory of Optimal Search’ book,” Stone admits.“He said it had too much measure theory and not enough physics and applications, and now looking back, I’d have to agree with him.”

Stone concedes, “My contribution to optimal search was to round out and extend the theory. Koopman was much stronger mathematically. But Koopman objected to the use of subjective probabilities, and it is hard to apply the results in this area without using subjective probabilities!” Actually, it looks impossible. One would have to have enough observational data to make frequentist inferences, and the absence of such data is pretty much the definition of the problem. But the analyst is left with uncomfortable questions about whether her or she is assuming too much. Probabilists continue to have heated disagreements about this. “I’ve been lucky many times in my career,” Stone ads.“Getting to work on the Scorpion search, spending a year as an adjunct professor at the Naval War College, which gave me the time to write ‘Theory of Optimal Search.’And not having Koopman as one of the judges for the 1975 Lanchester Prize.”

Applications abound. The continuing

rapid growth of computing capability makes possible amazing

transformations of theory into

New Worlds to Conquer? Although the new book is the summary and culmination of a lifetime of work, there is still much to be done.There is just one chapter dealing with searches in which the target is either trying to cooperate or trying to evade. Stone refers the interested reader to a book by Alpern and Gal [5] that includes evasion, and one by his co-author, Alan Washburn, on search games [6]. Stone’s longtime friend and later colleague at Metron, John Kettelle, developed a substantial theory on how to hide, but never published it. Nor, apparently, did he pass his notes to anyone else who has since pursued the subject. And applications abound. The continuing rapid growth of computing capability makes possible amazing transformations of theory into applied inference. No doubt there are interesting ways to do tasks such as detecting intrusions into communications and computer networks, problems that would apply the current theory and then add new facets. Stone’s new book provides a valuable basis and beginning for the work yet to be done. ORMS

applied inference.

Doug Samuelson (samuelsondoug@yahoo.com) is president and chief scientist of InfoLogix, Inc., in Annandale, Va.

REFERENCES 1. Stone, Lawrence D., Johannes O. Royset, and Alan R. Washburn, 2016, “Optimal Search for Moving Targets,” Springer. 2. Stone, Lawrence D., 1975, “The Theory of Optimal Search,” Academic Press; 2nd Ed, 2007, INFORMS. 3. Alpern, Steve, and Shmuel Gal, 2003, “The Theory of Search Games and Rendezvous,” Springer. 4. Washburn, Alan, 2013 (4th Ed.), “Two-Person Zero-Sum Games,” Springer. 5. Stone, Lawrence D., Thomas L. Corwin and Carl A. Barlow, 1999, “Bayesian Multiple Target Tracking,” Artech House; 2nd edition by Lawrence D. Stone, Roy L. Streit, Thomas L. Corwin, and Kristine L. Bell 2014, Artech House. 6. Stone, Lawrence D., 1992, “Search for the SS Central America,” Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 1, January-February, pp. 32-54.

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The evolution of INFORMS ORSA + TIMS = INFORMS: A look back at 65 years of problems, solutions, mergers, achievements and anecdotes.

By Peter

22 | ORMS Today

With visions of their fledgling field’s success during World War II still dancing in their heads and eager to train their technical talents on peacetime problems in industry and business, 73 individuals from academia, the military and corporate America gathered at the Arden Estate in Harriman, N.Y., on May 26, 1952, to map out plans for a professional organization that would carry the operations research banner forward in the United States. They emerged at the end of the historic day as the founding fathers of the Operations Research Society of America (ORSA). MIT professor Philip M. Morse, who literally wrote the book on the subject (“Methods of Operations Research,” co-authored by George Kimball), led the assembly. Already considered the “Father of O.R.” in the Unites States thanks to his contributions to the war effort, Morse was the obvious choice to serve as ORSA’s first president. The head of the U.S. Navy’s famed Anti-Submarine Warfare Operations Research Group during the war, Morse was joined at the Arden Estate by a Who’s Who of O.R. pioneers, including Kimball, Russell Ackoff and C. West Churchman. Before the year was out, ORSA would publish Vol. 1, No. 1 of its flagship journal, Operations Research, and organize its first national meeting, held at the Bureau of Standards in Washington, D.C. Four hundred members and guests attended. The world seemed full of interesting, complex industrial problems that cried out for operations research-type analysis. “The early ORSA meetings were attended by a couple of hundred people, almost all of them employed by industry, government or the military,” recalled longtime ORSA, TIMS and now INFORMS member Sid Hess. “The best parts of the meetings Philip M. Morse, the first were late night bull sessions in the cocktail lounge where students, president of ORSA. faculty and practitioners argued and exchanged views.” But all was not cozy in the O.R. community. Recalled Andrew Vazsonyi, one of the first “associate” members of ORSA, who passed away in 2003: “There was a feeling among [some of the members] back then that ORSA was too strongly oriented toward mathematics, that its leaders were just interested in military applications. ORSA was dominated by the Philip Morse and George Kimball crowd, people who were always talking about the things they did for the military during World War II. Many of us thought that ORSA needed another approach, something oriented toward management, but we didn’t think we could get the Morse crowd to change. It Horner turns out we were right.” ORSA’s early focus on military matters at the expense of management, combined with its perceived restrictive, layered membership policies, prompted several disenfranchised members to consider establishing a

February 2017

ormstoday.informs.org

new society that catered to their needs. Not long after ORSA was founded, Melvin Salveson organized the first in a series of informal meetings on the West Coast to explore interest in the venture. Almost simultaneously, similar g roups with similar designs spr ung up on the East Coast. David Hertz, then teaching at Columbia University, hosted one such meeting at his New York apartment. “There were about 10 of Meeting of the minds: The head table (rear of the photo) at TIMS’ Second Annual Banquet, held in New York City in 1955, featured many of the profession’s most notable pioneers including (left to right) Roger Crane, us,” said Hertz, who passed away Ezra Glazer, George Kozmetsky, Herbert Simon (vice president), William Cooper (past president), Merrill in 2011. “Bill Cooper was there. Flood (president), Melvin Salveson, C. West Churchman, Gifford Symonds, Alex Orden, Andy Vazsonyi and Merrill Flood was there. We David Hertz. spent a long night talking about the creation of [what would become] The Institute Several of the men who had attended the founding For a of Management Sciences. The big question, with meeting of ORSA 18 months earlier traveled to New ORSA already up and running, was, “Why are we York for the founding of TIMS. Prominent among them doing this?” We were doing it because a lot of peowas Churchman, who would become the founding that strives ple, myself included, were not satisfied with the idea editor of TIMS’ flagship journal, Management Science. that ORSA didn’t seem to be concerning itself with For a profession that strives to bring clarity to bring clarity to the management world.We believed we could make to management decision-making, TIMS got important contributions in this area by applying the off to a confusing start. For one thing, Salveson techniques of operations, which we called managereportedly showed up at Columbia having ment science.” already collected about $60 in dues for an as yet non-existent institute. Raising Another Banner “That really got Dantzig upset,” recalled Cooper, TIMS got off Just 18 months after ORSA was founded, a room who passed away in 2012. “I remember I got in a full of economists, engineers, mathematicians, statbig argument with Salveson over the nature of to a isticians, astronomers, philosophers, attorneys and, management science. He was looking, in a scientific yes, erstwhile operations researchers met on a cold sense, for laws and regularities that he believed winter’s day at Columbia University to ponder the governed management. I thought management possibility of joining forces under another banner, science meant developing methodology, improving this one called “management science.”The guest list the way we do things. Looking back, I would have For one thing, included four future Nobel Prize winners and one to say I was right.” future recipient of the National Medal of Science, Churchman, meanwhile, squared off with George B. Dantzig.They Dantzig over the issue of ethics. “George and I debated where the new didn’t see eye to eye on linear programming,” organization should go, Churchman, who passed away in 2004, recalled.“I’m showed up how it should get there a philosopher. When they said optimize, I thought and whether the efthey meant optimize in an ethical sense. You can at Columbia fort was even necessary, optimize the decision-making function in linear given the existence of programming and find out that it is only optimal ORSA. in terms of what management perceives to be the At the end of the monetary benefits minus cost. LP’s only constraints day, they decided that the are physical or purely financial, not ethical. effort was indeed worth “George and I were like any two old professors about $60 in dues it, and thus was born The who recognized that the other SOB was simply off Institute of Management somewhere else,” Churchman added. “George was for an as yet Sciences. The date was a mathematician, I was a philosopher. George was Dec. 1, 1953. William W. selling LP, and I was trying to sell ethics. Looking William W. Cooper, the first Cooper was elected the back, it’s pretty obvious that George did a better job president of TIMS. first president of TIMS. of selling than I did.”

profession

management decisionmaking,

confusing start.

Salveson reportedly

having already collected

non-existent institute.

February 2017

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History Lesson The eclectic cast of characters at Columbia managed to put aside their individual differences long enough to agree to proceed with the formal founding of TIMS. The founding fathers adopted a constitution and bylaws, elected a slate of officers, appointed an editorial board and established a committee to incorporate TIMS. In true Jeffersonian fashion, Constitution Chairman Merrill Flood and company authored an objective statement that holds up as well today as it did 64 years ago: “The objects of the Institute shall be to identify, extend and unify scientific knowledge that contributes to the understanding and practice of management.” The founding fathers of TIMS might have been wise in their ways, but they weren’t perfect. In crafting the constitution, they created the position of past president, and bestowed upon the position a number of important duties, not the least of which was the power to open meetings and chair the Council.After adopting a constitution and electing officers, the Institute found itself in a dilemma:Without a past president, the meeting could not officially begin. After briefly considering abolishing the fiveminute-old Institute and changing the bylaws, the charter members came to their senses and elected Vazsonyi to the post of past president.Thus Vazsonyi will always be remembered in TIMS lore as the only past president of the Institute who never served as president. About that same time, over in the ORSA camp, the operations researchers found themselves embroiled in a similar debate concerning elections. Should officers be elected by a majority, a plurality or some other means of counting? The hour was late. Everyone was tired. Lengthy discussions had failed to produce an answer. Finally, George Kimball stood up and simply said, “The one who gets the most votes wins.” End of debate. From the beginning, ORSA and TIMS staked their reputations on using sophisticated mathematical modeling to solve complex operational problems.

At the same time, good operations researchers and management scientists know that sometimes all it really takes to solve a problem is a little common sense.

Brothers (Up) in Arms Like two rival brothers who have much in common yet can’t seem to see agree on anything, ORSA and TIMS went their separate ways, only to reunite later in life. In 1954, ORSA appointed its first (and long-serving) business manager, Norvell Miller III, and presented its first award, the Frederick W. Lanchester Prize for the best English language paper in operations research. In 1957, the Case Institute of Technology awarded the first Ph.D. degree in operations research, and ORSA became a charter member of the International Federation of Operational Societies, extending its worldwide reach. TIMS, meanwhile, was busy building its own flagship journal, Management Science (1954), appointing Harold Cauvet as its first executive director (1958) and approving its first college (Planning, also in 1958). By the end of the 1950s, ORSA membership stood at about 3,000. Membership in TIMS soared to more than 2,600, boosted by a meeting in Paris in 1959 that included membership dues as part of the registration fee. A significant number of people such as Hess, who joined ORSA and TIMS in 1957, maintained memberships in both organizations. ORSA, the “older brother,” was generally considered the stronger of the two, at least in a financial sense. A series of unsettling events in the early 1960s stopped TIMS’ growth in its tracks and brought the Institute to the brink of bankruptcy.The tumultuous period was marked by a revolving business office (three moves to three different cities) and executive directors (four in six years). Things settled down with the 1968 appointment of Mary DeMelim as executive director, a post she held for more than 25 years. (Patricia Morris, whose career closely mirrored DeMelim’s, added stability to ORSA as its executive director during much of the same timeframe.) The late 1960s ushered in a second wave of sustained growth MIT professor (photo), that pushed TIMS’ membership past who attended his first national ORSA meeting 6,500 by the end of the decade. MIT professor John D. C. Little, in 1955, recalled the 1960s as a time when the who attended his first national ORSA meeting in 1955, recalled the 1960s as emphasis in O.R. was on methodologies, which a time when the emphasis in O.R. was evolved into an increase in the “mathematization” on methodologies, which evolved into an increase in the “mathematization” of the field. By the 1970s, Little said, “We returned of the field. By the 1970s, Little to putting more attention on applications in the said, “We returned to putting more attention on applications in the universities and journals.” universities and journals.” The 1970s also marked a reunion of the long estranged

John D. C. Little

24 | ORMS Today

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ormstoday.informs.org

“brothers” – ORSA and TIMS – highlighted by the joint publication of Interfaces and the first joint U.S. meeting (held in Boston). In 1971,TIMS established the College on the Practice of Management Science and the Management Science Achievement Prize Competition, which was later renamed the Franz Edelman Award for Management Science Achievement. Franz Edelman, the longtime leader of the management science group at RCA, was widely considered the “quintessential” management science practitioner. In 1974, ORSA established the Kimball Medal for service to the society and the profession, and the John von Neumann Theory Prize. From the narrow military focus of its early years, operations research broadened its scope to include a dizzying array of theoretical research and applications in the industrial and service sectors. By the end of the decade, the fuzzy line that had historically distinguished ORSA and TIMS, and operations research from management science, had all but disappeared, prompting the first serious talks of merger. “In the 1950s and ’60s, the competition between the two organizations was almost unfriendly,” Hess recalled. “Gradually those of us who lived and worked in the overlap – whatever that was – helped encourage cooperation.” Winds of Merger Merger seemed inevitable, but it required many more years of joint meetings, joint journals, joint councils, joint proposals, joint counter-proposals and good, old-fashioned lobbying before ORSA and TIMS would officially tie the knot. In the meantime, both organizations enjoyed impressive growth in terms of their journals, subdivisions and meetings. At the first ORSA national meeting, all of the technical papers were delivered in a single one-day session. In comparison, the combined 1988 TIMS/ ORSA National Meeting in Washington, D.C., chaired by Saul Gass, drew 2,879 total registrants – a record that stood for many years – and included dozens of tracks spread over four days. Whether the quality of presentations kept pace with the quantity of presentations is a whole different question. Dantzig’s work on linear programming and the simplex method in the late 1940s jump-started the profession. Logic says that the growth of ORSA and TIMS should have thrived by the development of the desktop computer, the increased access to data and the creation of landmark theories, algor ithms, methodologies, applications and publications. History, however, often defies logic. Sometime in the 1970s, right about the time Apple started making personal computers for the masses, the growth rate of

Merger seemed inevitable,

membership in ORSA and TIMS began to slow down. In the 1980s, a decade when Narendra Karmarkar’s interior-point LP solution method marked the first fundamentally new LP algorithm in nearly 40 years, and the O.R. group at American Airlines pioneered the concept of yield/revenue management that revolutionized how airlines and other industries do business, ORSA and TIMS membership growth slowed even further. In the early 1990s, at a time when computer power was growing exponentially and the business world was floating in a sea of data generated by virtually every desktop in the world, membership growth stopped altogether. What’s Wrong with this Picture? It’s not a question of what went wrong, but where did the demand for OR/MS-type skills go. The classically trained O.R. professional was a generalist, but the market began demanding specialists. Many companies that had historically supported separate O.R. groups or departments began to disperse their analytical talent throughout the enterprise. Individuals armed with advanced O.R. degrees who ended up in a financial department, for example, began to think of themselves in terms of finance rather than operations research. The individuals were still doing O.R.-type work and using O.R.-type tools, but over time they became more in tune with the folks in finance rather than those in O.R., and perhaps they changed their professional affiliation as well. That might explain why at the time the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics kept saying that there were 50,000 to 80,000 (depending on the year and the definition of “operations research”) O.R. analysts running around the country, only a fraction of them called ORSA, TIMS or later INFORMS home. In other words, the number of people “doing O.R.” was almost certainly increasing; they just weren’t calling themselves operations researchers or joining INFORMS. At the same time, traditional management science courses started losing ground in business schools. It turns out that MBAs were more interested in making money than making mathematical models. Go figure. The net result: Many business schools responded to their customers’ (i.e., students) demands by reducing or eliminating the once-required management science component of their curriculums. That, in turn, further dampened the profile of OR/MS in the corporate world and no doubt led some analysts to reconsider their professional affiliation or to drop an affiliation all together.

but it required

many more years of joint

meetings, joint

journals, joint

councils, joint

proposals, joint

counterproposals and good, old-fashioned

lobbying before

ORSA and TIMS would officially

tie the knot.

INFORMS Emerges Whether people were wandering off the OR/MS reservation to affiliate with other fields or simply choosing to “bowl alone” and go it on their own, February 2017

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History Lesson As INFORMS carried the

banner of O.R. in America into a second half-century,

the Institute had much to celebrate, as

INFORMS continued to expand and improve its products and services.

The Institute boasted 10 respected titles in its

portfolio of journals, all of them ranked at or near the

top in their specialties.

26 | ORMS Today

concern over dwindling membership in both ORSA and TIMS was one of the factors that brought the issue of merger to a head in the mid1990s. Merger was widely seen as a logical next step for two kindred organizations that already shared about half of their budgets and activities. Along with streamlining internal inefficiency, the merger was sold as a means to gain more external clout with a united front while creating “a big tent” organization that would foster the growth and independence of existing subdivisions and perhaps attract new, related societies and professional organizations. During the summer of 1994, members of ORSA and TIMS voted overwhelmingly in favor of a merger. On Dec. 31, 1994, ORSA and TIMS ceased to exist. On Jan. 1, 1995, the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences was born. John D. C. Little, a former president of both ORSA and TIMS and one of the primary architects of the merger, was elected to serve as the first president of INFORMS. Alfred Blumstein, another past president of both ORSA and TIMS, was voted to the post of president-elect. As INFORMS carried the banner of O.R. in America into a second half-century, the Institute had much to celebrate, as INFORMS continued to expand and improve its products and services. The Institute boasted 10 respected titles in its portfolio of journals, all of them ranked at or near the top in their specialties, and the two flagship journals, Operations Research and Management Science, were named to a list of the 12 most influential business journals in the country. In addition, INFORMS had created a strong Internet presence; Infor ms Online received thousands of hits a day, and the Institute’s successful online publication program opened up an important new stream of revenue. Meanwhile, the INFORMS annual meeting continued to draw well, the new practice-oriented meeting established a reputation for quality, and the Institute stood on solid financial ground. Despite all of its successes, however, two key problems still haunted the Institute. The merger did little, if anything, to boost membership. After reaching a high-water mark of nearly 15,000 (combined ORSA and TIMS) in the late 1980s and early 1990s, membership slowly retreated to about 10,000 at the turn of the century. Even more perplexing was “the name issue.” Despite countless attempts at “branding” its product, the Institute still had not found an effective way to clearly define, let alone market, what its members do and why the world should care. More than 50 years after its founding, and despite a wellfunded “Science of Better” marketing campaign, the terms “operations research” and “management February 2017

science” didn’t get much traction outside the walls of the OR/MS community. Born in the crucible of World War II with the fate of a free Europe depending on its success and buoyed in the post-war era of rapidly expanding industrial and management opportunities, was the field of OR/MS destined to be forever bewitched by a public and corporate world that neither understood nor appreciated its many contributions? David Hertz, who hosted the first TIMS planning meeting in his New York apartment in 1953, had a one-word answer: “nonsense.” His expanded explanation, spoken in 1993 upon TIMS’ 40th anniversary, still resonates today: “ I n a ny lo n g jou r n e y, det ou r s a re inevitable. Membership grew, we almost went broke. TIMS set out to bring the kind of science represented by operations research to the management world. Its members did so in many, many ways and I think it was successful. “In a way, gro w th i s some wh at of a handic a p. Today, you hear a lot of complaining from our members about a lack of recognition. That’s a bunch of bull. I don’t have any sympathy for those who complain. The people who do exceptional work are always recognized – with full professorships at major institutes, with major jobs in industry, with big appointments in government, with research grants. “I think the problem is there are too many people who like to call themselves management scientists. There are 500,000 lawyers in this country. Are they all recognized? I believe a great deal can be done, but it’s not going to be done by complaining. In my opinion, we’re crying over the wrong issue. Recognition is not the issue. Good work is. You’ve got to understand the world of management, the managed and managing.” Expansion and Recent Initiatives Needless to say, the Institute and the profession have undergone many changes since the merger of ORSA and TIMS created INFORMS more than 20 years ago. The increase in data mentioned above has since turned into a data tsunami of unfathomable depths, produced not just by desktop computers but by all manner of devices, from sensors in big rigs and refrigerators to smart phones and wearable technology on seemingly every person. The widespread availability of “big data” has made it not only possible but imperative for companies to make sense and gain insight from massive amounts of data in order to optimize their corporate decision-making and ormstoday.informs.org

“compete on analytics.”That in turn has given rise to a whole new set of monikers such as “data scientist” and “analytics professional” to comingle with “operations researcher” and “management scientist,” further confusing the 65-year-old “name” issue: How do I best describe, let alone Expansion and new initiatives, none more prominent than the decision to embrace market, myself and my profession to the analytics movement, have marked the more recent history of INFORMS. the corporate world? Expansion and new initiatives, none more particularly leadership roles in INFORMS. For prominent than the decision to embrace the analytics the record, from 2007 to 2015, six of the nine movement, have marked the more recent history of presidents of INFORMS happened to be women. INFORMS. Along those lines, the Institute remade • INFORMS staff, which used to be spread and then rebranded its spring conference as the across offices in the Washington, D.C., area, “INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics & and Providence, R.I. (a holdover from the O.R.,” changing the focus from a largely academic pre-merger days), is now consolidated under exercise to a high-end, practitioner-oriented event the leadership of Executive Director Melissa aimed at analysts, managers and C-level execs. In Moore in a modern office complex located 2008, INFORMS launched Analytics magazine, an just minutes from the Baltimore/Washington online-only publication whose reach and readership International Airport. now far exceeds that of the INFORMS membership magazine OR/MS Today. To further cement itself Upon this 65th anniversary of the founding as a leader in the worldwide analytics community, of ORSA, we’ll once again leave the last words INFORMS supported an Analytics Section that to ORSA’s original resident philosopher, C. West quickly became an Analytics Society as membership Churchman: “Everybody’s daily life consists of probsoared past a thousand; created a continuing lems arising from what you decided yesterday. Maneducation program; and launched the Certified agers understand that. Mathematicians want to solve Analytics Professional (CAP) and the Associate a theorem, publish the results and walk away clean. Certified Analytics Professional (aCAP) programs to Managers never walk away clean. The real world is help analysts separate themselves in the job market a very dirty place. Clarity is supposed to be the oband to help companies find qualified candidates for jective of science. I disagree. I think the objective of their analytics teams. science is confusion, because confusion carries you On the academic side, INFORMS added several into problems.” journals in recent years to its world-class portfolio, After 65 years of merged history, INFORMS including Decision Analysis (2004), Service Science still finds itself knee-deep in Churchman’s preferred (2012) and Strategy Science (2015). choice of confusion. While plenty of pressing Over the past 15 years, other notable highlights problems have been solved, many pressing problems include: remain. ORMS • In 2002, the Institute introduced its inaugural Peter Horner (peter.horner@mail.informs.org) is the class of INFORMS Fellows in recognition editor of OR/MS Today and Analytics magazines. The author again thanks the late Saul Gass for his many of their lifetime achievement in operations comments and suggestions on previous versions of this research and the management sciences, as well article, and salutes the many other pillars of the profession as service to the profession and INFORMS. who contributed their time, expertise, wisdom, service and • On the meetings front, the INFORMS Annual leadership to INFORMS dating back to its ancestral roots Meeting now routinely attracts well over 5,500 65 years ago. attendees, including an all-time record 5,827 in ACKNOWLEDGMENT San Francisco in 2014, a record that was nearly matched by Nashville in 2016. 2017 marks the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Operations Research Society of America in 1952, which eventually merged with The Institute of Management Sciences to create • INFORMS membership passed the 12,000 INFORMS in 1995. This article is an updated version of an earlier article, “History in the mark last year for the first time since the Making,” marking the 50th anniversary of ORSA, which appeared in the October 2002 issue merger. of OR/MS Today. That earlier version, including some passages and quotes, was itself based on published accounts of ORSA, TIMS and INFORMS that have appeared in OR/MS Today over the • In 2015, the INFORMS Women in OR/MS last 25 years, most notably articles on the 40th anniversaries of ORSA and TIMS in 1992 and (WORMS) Forum celebrated its 20th anniversary, 1993, respectively, and the merger debate that led to the creation of INFORMS (1994-95), as a reflection of the growing impact women have well as John R. Hall’s “An Issue-Oriented History of TIMS,” that appeared in Interfaces in 1983 (Vol. 13, No. 4, pgs. 9-19). had in all phases of the OR/MS community, February 2017

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Analytical methods can provide a competitive edge to win more games, better manage a team’s business, perform at higher levels and prevent injuries. Image © Pariwat Intrawut | 123rf.com

The sports analytics explosion Opportunities for research: drilling deeper into team sports. By Gary Cokins and Dave Schrader

28 | ORMS Today

February 2017

The June 2016 issue of OR/MS Today included an article, “Sports Analytics Taxonomy, V1.0” [1], that showed the taxonomy as a tree with branches and leaves that describe how sports information could be catalogued to make better data-driven decisions.The three major branches in that taxonomy were team sports, individual sports and league sports management.This article drills more deeply into team sports with examples and illustrates interesting research problems, along with analytical techniques. Team sports analytics Team sports analytics can be divided into front-office “business-side” analytics, back-office “team operations” analytics, and health and safety ormstoday.informs.org

analytics. A landmark paper by Thomas Davenport described many examples in these three areas [2]. Drilling into these areas exposes commonality with business analytic techniques. 1. The business side of sports includes topics such as ticket pricing, merchandising/brand licensing, venue management, sponsorship return on investment, and TV and radio contracts. For professional sports, it also includes (with inputs from scouts, coaches and owners) financial analytics for player acquisition and trades, and salary cap optimizations. Sports business shares many analytical techniques with customer relationship manSubstitute “fan” for “customer” and you’ll find sports organizations equally interested in monitoring agement (CRM) techniques fan sentiment. Image © Oleksii Sidorov | 123rf.com used by marketing and sales, as well as statistical approaches by the finance organization. Substitute “fan” for Nine examples of research projects in these “customer” and you’ll find sports organizations three areas of analytics appear below. Many come equally interested in monitoring fan sentiment from research by members of the Teradata Uni(what are fans saying about the team, players, versity Network (TUN) [3] doing “Moneyball on shares many coaches and opponents). The same techniques Campus” projects that involve athletic departments used for “revenue optimization” through dywith data and problems, and business school students namic pricing of airline seats apply to the pricing and faculty who can analyze their data to develop of seats for individual games. Mobile phone plan insights. Other examples come from best practice pricing with various tiered options is akin to seawork by analysts who present their research results at son ticket pricing. the annual MIT Sloan School Sports Analytics Conwith 2. The operations side of sports depends heavily ference (SSAC) that takes place in February/March on new big data techniques, since so much of each year in Boston [4]. game planning and competitive analysis depends Information Management on video or sensor processing. Internet of Things (IoT) techniques for fast streaming, filtering and All projects need to collect and analyze data. Sports geospatial analysis are now being adapted for sports. data may be easily obtainable (e.g., ticket sales The most interesting problems involve “coverage” where customers identify themselves with credit techniques or “space creation and destruction” as players move cards, names and addresses) or difficult (e.g., realused by around a field, court or rink. Current statistics are time medical information about players). Which too offense-centric, giving credit to the player who data is collected depends on which questions need made the score but with little or no credit to his/her to be answered, as well as which data is available. teammate who created open space; this will change. Historically, analytics have been siloed efforts in 3. The health and safety aspects of sports rely the three areas mentioned above with little or no heavily on techniques used in the healthcare industhought to building an integrated system for data try, an area of vibrant research. Predictive models for analysis. Often, the data is in files or Excel rather injury prevention, sleep and rest, and nutrition all than database environments that offer rich statistics apply. Athletes can be modeled like machines with and analytics packages, complete with visualization useful lifetimes and failure modalities, so techniques technologies. such as hazard functions and time-to-failure models Nine examples of sports analytics: for locomotives or airliners can predict useful player 1. Sports metadata. Researchers can benefit career timelines. by having access to standardized and detailed

Sports business

analytical techniques

customer relationship management

marketing and sales.

February 2017

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Sports Analytics All pro teams

across all sports now use

analytics to create deeper insights on the

best players to

draft or trade.

descriptions of all entities, attributes and relationships among objects for each sport. This is the metadata problem. For example, team sports entities to model include teams that have seasons with games against opponents.Teams consist of players who try to score goals with a ball or puck using various play techniques. There may be offensive and defensive plays. Each player on the field, court or rink may have a position, a history of game performance (including goals or penalties), a training program and perhaps a history of injuries. It really doesn’t matter if one is talking football, soccer, hockey, lacrosse or basketball – these sports all have the same kinds of concepts, entities and relationships. For example, substitute “puck” for “ball” in the case of hockey and many of the same concepts apply. Students and faculty at Loyola University in Chicago have started to build metadata models that can be shared. Students built a basketball model using a publically available and free tool called ERDPlus (www.erdplus.com). Their first results are shown in Figure 1. We can leverage a model built for one sport like basketball for others, like soccer or rugby. As students build additional modules within one sport, we can carve out common areas, like “fans,” and leverage those across all the sports models. For example, fans may buy tickets, have favor ite teams, send tweets about the teams or players, and reside in particular geographic locations. Computer science practitioners will recognize this as building a type hierarchy with type specializations.

Figure 1: College basketball: entity relationship diagram for a single game.

30 | ORMS Today

February 2017

2. Sales and marketing management: ticketing. Research and analysis can help sports business managers understand the demographics of who buys tickets to games so they can target different types of customers with tailored advertising and offers. Dynamic ticket pricing can increase revenues and fill arenas. Two TUN projects are underway at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro and at Wright State University.The objective is for business school students and faculty to analyze season and single game ticket data to understand who attends games and how many people renew season tickets. The feedback can help athletic departments know where their most loyal customers live and what their lifetime buying patterns are so they can refine future marketing campaigns. For pro team sports, Major League Baseball led the way on dynamic ticket pricing. An initial San Francisco Giants’ study [5] revealed that 10 of 29 predictive model variables in their initial model were significant. Examples include the opposing team’s win-loss record, day of week, time of game, starting pitchers and how many opposing team all-stars play. The Sports Institute at the University in Cologne, Germany, studied ticket pricing for the FC Bayern Munich soccer team [5]. Its results indicate that they could easily double prices for eight categories of tickets with no impact of reduced attendance! 3. Athlete recruiting. The movie “Moneyball” starring Brad Pitt popularized the idea of using analytics to do better baseball talent recruiting. All pro teams across all sports now use analytics to create deeper insights on the best players to draft or trade. For colleges, recruiting high school athletes is like the sales funnel lead problem for businesses. How much time and effort should go into recruiting any particular athlete? How can one track the progression from a raw lead to signing with the team? Which athletes in the pipeline are at risk of being picked off by the competition? The goal is to optimize staff time/effort and maximize the selection of the best possible recruits. Athlete recruiting optimization applies across multiple sports, but it is an especially acute problem for college football given the numbers of leads (as opposed to college basketball or soccer). A TUN video based on Bryant University shows new factors for recruiting football wide receivers at the collegiate level [6]. Now let’s turn to some analytics problems in the second of the three areas of analytics – the back office operations area. ormstoday.informs.org

4. Space coverage. The problem of creating space (offense) or reducing space (defense) is fundamental to many team sports. Animations and statistics about space over time can be very helpful. These visualizations involve mapping each player’s location data (using RFID or GPS or from video annotations) to points on a Cartesian coordinate plane. A landmark paper in this space by Kirk Goldsberry illustrates key ideas [7]. Derived measures like the distance between players or clusters of players can be calculated. “Cones of coverage” can be computed given windows of time and ball locations, as well as advanced defense statistics never before available. This field is advancing at a fast clip. Figure 2: Decision tree to predict if the next football play will be a pass or run. Second Spectrum [8] leads the way for basketball. Disney Research in Pittsburgh analyzed prior games to detect play tendencies. The offense three English Premier League soccer teams’ offensive obviously knows what play they will execute. The and defensive space coverage [9]. defense tries to determine what the offense’s next 5. Improved predictive models for play play will be. tactics. Defensive coaches in (American) football Many possible variables exist for building a often watch films of their upcoming opponent’s next-play model. What yard line is the ball on and

SAS and INFORMS Analytics Section Student Analytical Scholar Competition Accepting applications until February 13, 2017

SAS and INFORMS want to recognize one outstanding student interested in the practice of analytics by paying his or her expenses to attend the INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics and Operations Research held April 2–4, 2016, in Las Vegas, NV. The purpose of the competition is to practice the process of structuring and presenting a compelling proposal for analytical work. Applicants will be asked to produce a document, known as a “Statement of Work” (SOW), for a case study based on a real-life project. Such documents are usually created early in a project, after some exploratory work, but may or may not fully deﬁne the problem. Application deadline: February 13, 2017 For application details, visit: www.informs.org/SAS-AnalyticsScholarCompetition February 2017

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Sports Analytics Many

which hash mark? What is the down number and yard distance to a first down? What is the score differential at the time of this play? How much time is left? What is the offense formation? What is the defense players’ formation? What is the outcome of each play? The sequence of plays can also be relevant. In a TUN-sponsored project at Oklahoma State University, students analyzed a year’s worth of University of Dubuque football play data. The students used 45 fields for each play to construct a cascaded decision model that predicts whether the next play will be a run or a pass (see Figure 2).They achieved 75 percent accuracy (after only one week of modeling!). The students also built heat maps of passing zones to help the coach see where his defense is weak in pass coverage. Finally, they built interactive Sankey diagrams using Teradata’s Aster tool to help the coach see, for “explosive plays” (the offense gains 16+ yards passing or 12+ yards rushing), which of his defenses gave up those yardage numbers and which offenses they did not defend well as shown in Figure 3. 6. Predicting player injuries. The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) maintains an injury surveillance database that it shares with qualified researchers. It contains information about 12,800 athlete injuries per year for the 380,000 monitored athletes [10]. The latest injury summary by sport shows that the incidence of concussion is not highest in football, but rather wrestling. Women collegiate athletes experience ACL tears at a rate five times that of men [11] (Figure 4). Rather than react to injuries after they occur, promising research aims to prevent injuries through predictive models.With wearable biosensors, athletes can be monitored and compared to baseline metrics – both to other skill-position players, as well as to

their own histories. Injury profiles for each sport, like women’s soccer, can be built and become the focus for better training to avoid injuries. For example, if the arm motion of a baseball pitcher begins to deviate from its baseline, it could imply an injury for which the pitcher’s arm motion exist for is compensating.This could lead to more serious injury and surgery that might be avoided. Research is underway at Auburn University a and the University of Tennessee-Chattanooga to use accelerometers in mobile phones to collect data from a variety of tests, and then build predictive models for injuries across a variety of sports and skill positions. For example, a 10 percent difference in an athlete’s ability to balance on one leg for 20 seconds vs. the other might indicate a core strength problem that could be remediated through selected training techniques [12]. 7. Player reaction time. With sensor technologies that monitor player movement, researchers can track reaction times. Sample stimuli include ball movements and trajectories, opposing player movements and even the movements of teammates. All players are not the same when it comes to their reaction times so this is another factor for recruiting. Research by Jocelyn Faubert at the University of Montreal [13] has been performed for hockey, rugby and soccer. A “bouncing balls test” showed significant differences in the ability of professional, college and non-athletes to track multiple moving objects. This research could be extended to football linebackers who must read and then react to offensive formations and the movements of players before the snap. For soccer, researchers could test the ability to “see” and react to where the ball lands compared to the relative positioning of teammates and the opposing team’s defenders. These examples drive more general questions: What are relevant baseline measures of reaction times that could be defined for each sport? For each skill position? What drills or coaching techniques would be useful to improve player reaction times? 8. Predicting ball trajectories. Diving deeper, can we use technology to study which players are the best at predicting trajectory information such as a ball’s speed, angle of trajectory, and the location where the object will land? Examples include a batted Figure 3: Sankey diagram shows what combinations of football offensive and defensive formations baseball, a thrown football, a socare more/less effective for explosive, high-yardage plays. cer kick, a hockey slap shot or a

possible variables building

next-play model.

32 | ORMS Today

February 2017

ormstoday.informs.org

Thanks to the many enthusiastic faculty and students who have joined the Teradata University Network to start doing interesting research to move this exciting field forward. Readers interested in sports analytics reading lists or publicly available sports data sets to investigate should contact the authors. ORMS Gary Cokins (gcokins@garycokins.com) retired from SAS in 2013. He is founder of AnalyticsBased Performance Management LLC (www. garycokins.com) and is in the Baseball Hall of Fame for having developed the oldest computer baseball game (1969).

Figure 4: High-propensity injury locations for women’s soccer players.

basketball rebound. Interesting research for baseball by Peter Fadde of Southern Illinois University [14] uses visual occlusion systems to see whether it is the reaction time or the ability to “read pitcher body cues” that drives the ability of a batter to discern whether the next pitch is a fast ball, curve, slider, etc., and when to swing. 9. The value of sleep. Other factors such as sleep and nutrition also contribute to performance. An amazing Stanford study [15] shows that if varsity basketball players sleep at least 10 hours a night, their sprint speeds decrease from 16.2 to 15.5 seconds, and both free-throw and 3-point shooting accuracy goes up by 9 percent. The dawning of sports science Art, craft or science? Sport team managers and coaches have traditionally viewed their role as a craft, but team and player management is becoming more scientific. Coaches and trainers, and even medical staff will still have notebooks filled with their ideas of what will work or not in various play or training/ recovery situations, but insights from analytics will help them test and validate their ideas. Just as with business, the ROI of investments in analytics will become more widely known as teams succeed with data-driven approaches. So where do we go from here? Analytical methods can provide a competitive edge to win more games, better manage a team’s business, perform at higher levels and prevent injuries. This article provided examples of how researchers, coaches, athletic directors, trainers and players can work together to advance the field of sports analytics, but there’s still much to be done.

Dave Schrader (drdaveschrader@gmail. com) is on the Board of Advisors for the Teradata University Network. He retired from Teradata in 2014. In 2016, he gave 47 talks at 25 universities to more than 2,700 students, faculty and coaches about sports analytics.

NOTES & REFERENCES 1. Gary Cokins, Walt DeGrange, Stephen Chambal and Russell Walker, 2016, “Sports Analytics Taxonomy, V1.0,” ORMS Today, June 2016. Available online at: http://viewer.zmags.com/ publication/085442e2#/085442e2/42?platform=hootsuite 2. Tom Davenport, 2014, “Analytics in Sports – The New Science of Winning.” Appears as a SAS-sponsored white paper online at http://www.sas.com/content/dam/SAS/en_us/doc/ whitepaper2/iia-analytics-in-sports-106993.pdf 3. Teradata University Network, a free website for faculty and students to access homework assignments, reading lists, curriculum suggestions, videos, case studies and research suggestions. See www.teradatauniversitynetwork.com. 4. MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. See http://www.sloansportsconference.com/ 5. Christoph Kemper and Christoph Breuer, 2016, “How Efficient is Dynamic Pricing for Sports Events? Designing a Dynamic Pricing Model for Bayern Munich,” International Journal of Sports Finance, Vol. 11, No 1. Available online at: http://fitpublishing.com/articles/how-efficientdynamic-pricing-sport-events-designing-dynamic-pricing, 6. Seven-minute minute video appears at http://www.teradatauniversitynetwork.com/About-Us/ Whats-New/BSI--Sports-Analytics---Precision-Football/ 7. Kirk Goldsberry, 2014, “Databall,” Grantland. Appears at http://grantland.com/features/ expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/ 8. Rajiv Maheswaran, March 2015, TEDx Talk in Vancouver, B.C. Appears at http://www. secondspectrum.com/videos/ along with other videos of this technology. 9. Iavor Bojinov and Luke Bornny, 2016,“The Pressing Game: Optimal Defensive Disruption in Soccer,” research report from MIT SSAC16 appears at http://www.sloansportsconference. com/?page_id=462 10. NCAA Sports Injuries Website at http://www.ncaa.org/health-and-safety/medical-conditions/ sports-injuries. Detailed facts sheets for selected sports are at http://www.datalyscenter.org/ fact-sheets/ 11. http://www.livestrong.com/article/513231-frequency-of-injury-among-college-athletes/ 12. Ross Gruetzemacher, Ashish Gupta and Gary Wilkerson, 2016, “Sports Injury Prevention Screen (SIPS): Design and Architecture of an Internet of Things (IoT) Based Analytics Health App.” Available online at: http://aisel.aisnet.org/confirm2016/18/ 13. Jocelyn Faubert, 2013, “Professional athletes have extraordinary skills for rapidly learning complex and neutral dynamic visual scenes,” Scientific Reports 3, Article 1154, 31 January 2013. An animation of the test appears at 7:30 in a TEDx Montreal talk at https://vimeo. com/86217755 14. Peter Fadde, Southern Illinois University. See his website at: http://peterfadde.com/ projectspitchbaseball.html for several articles and videos on his research. 15. Cheri Mah, Kenneth Mah, Eric Kezirian and William Dement, 2011, “The Effects of Sleep Extension on the Athletic Performance of Collegiate Basketball Players,” Sleep, Vol. 34, No. 7, pp. 943-950. Abstract available at: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3119836/

February 2017

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Essay: Romance & Science

Ada Lovelace: ‘poetical scientist’ In secret we met In silence I grieve, That thy heart could forget, Thy spirit deceive. If I should meet thee After long years, How should I greet thee? With silence and tears. – “When We Two Parted,” Lord Byron

To fully appreciate Ada Lovelace’s contribution, we would need to look at it from a historical perspective.

By Aaron Lai

34 | ORMS Today

February 2017

Once upon a time, in a kingdom far, far away, a blue-blooded girl was born with one of the most well-known family names in history. Her mother hated her father so much that her mother decided to nurture this little girl as everything opposite to what her father stood for: passion, romance, poetry. And so the mother taught her daughter science, mathematics and logic.The mother would not even let the girl see any portrait of her father till the age of 20! Nevertheless, nature gave the daughter a romantic heart, and nurture gave her a logical brain. She became the first female computer scientist, and the Pentagon even named a computer language after her. She is Ada Lovelace, the daughter of poet Lord Byron. She was also the first to question ormstoday.informs.org

if a machine could think. Alan Turing called it “Lady Lovelace’s Objection.” Coincidentally, in “Second Machine Age” [1], the authors asserted that our future would come from a partnership between human and machine, which was not unlike the marriage of poetry and science. Maybe we can even call her a “poetical scientist,” which could be the next evolution of data scientist because the power of an algorithm could soon hit its marginal diminishing return. The Ideals of Rationalism and Romanticism Ada Lovelace’s insights might look obvious to our modern eyes, but to fully appreciate her contribution, we would need to look at it from a historical perspective. People at that time thought that romanticism (imagination or the left brain) and rationalism (reasoning or the right brain) were polar opposites. It is a misconception.True problem-solving requires creativity, and people need to break a paradigm in order to build a paradigm. Enlightenment brought the role of man to the center and also celebrated the ingenuity of humans as opposed to just a glorification of God.They believed that man with his wisdom could overcome everything and come up with a rational solution. This period witnessed an unprecedented development in science and engineering, and daily lives were fundamentally changed. Rational thinking was considered as the ultimate answering tool to gain knowledge. From knowledge, one could reach Utopia. Afterward came a new group of people who were idealists in the sense of every meaning of that word – they valued “wholeheartedness, sincerity, the purity of soul, the readiness to dedicate yourself to your ideals, no matter what it was” [2]. To them, conventions were meant to be broken, and rational thinking or just thinking itself was against their souls. The Romantic artists were sensitive, profound, subtle and receptive, and they formed the images in romantic poetry [3]. T h e t wo c a m p s we re t h o u g h t t o b e dichotomous . . . until Ada. What has Ada Lovelace Done with Her Poetical Science? Augusta Ada King (née Byron, 1815-1852), Countess of Lovelace, was born with the most famous (or infamous) name of her time or even of all time [4]. Her father was the great romantic poet Lord Byron, but she had been separated from him since birth. Lady Byron was a disciplined lady, and she was very supportive of Ada’s education in mathematics to drive her away from the spirit of her father [5].

The difference between a good and a great scientist is that the great one always has a feeling about the direction of his or her research. Their intuitions might be off or immature, but this is a key point in shaping and crystallizing ideas. Nevertheless, Ada found the division between art and science deterred people from understanding the essence of an idea. Ada believed in the importance of intuition and image in mathematics and science. She called this “Poetical Science.” The key features were observation, interpretation and integration. They were relevant a hundred years ago and are still relevant today. The first stage is careful observation. She believed that people should pay close attention to details in order to arrive at insights. She often used analogy and metaphor to explain key concepts because she needed to be able to run them through her head first to assure understanding. We should note that her metaphors were both concise and precise, a reflection of deep understanding. This is a skill we urgently need now. We are working in more specialized fields, and very often we communicate in jargon that no one even in related areas could fully understand, not to mention the general public or other learned people. A good metaphor captures the attention of people as well as facilitating discussion. Poetry has had metaphor since its inception, but it is mostly drawn from one or more parallel features. Romantic poems often project romantic images through various literate means. When Wordsworth wrote, “Till all was tranquil as a dreamless sleep” in “The Prelude,” it did not mean dreamless sleep always happens in tranquility. This is a typical example of how the Romantics used metaphor. However, the metaphors used by Ada were different. She used them to highlight key features that anyone could understand. For example, people at that time would have no problem picturing a weaving machine. So she called the “Analytical Engine” (the first programmable computing machine proposed by Charles Babbage and with extensive notes and improvements added by Ada) a weaving engine that wove algebraical patterns rather than pictures of flowers and leaves. This was an imaginative yet pragmatic approach to explain abstract situations; this also combined the rich imagination from the romantic side with the precise nature of the rationalist/ scientific side. When Babbage constructed the “Difference Machine,” he was thinking about a special-purpose machine to do a specific type of computation. When he started to work on the “Analytical Engine,” he was still considering it as February 2017

Ada believed in the

importance of intuition and image in

mathematics and science. She called this

“Poetical Science.” The key features were

observation, interpretation and

integration.

ORMS Today

| 35

Ada Lovelace: Poetical Scientist

a pure computing device. It was Ada who saw the true potential. Ada’s most important contribution was not her technical interpretation that became her legacy but her imagination that foretold the arrival of general-purpose computers nearly a hundred years before they were made. Take another example of an imaginative solution – the Fan Chart produced by Florence Nightingale on mortality in the Crimean War. This was the creative use of data in a familiar environment that cemented her reputation as a statistics pioneer (and also the first female Fellow of The Royal Statistical Society). Her charts were so impressively precise that it changed public opinion on the war, as well as a policy change to improve the hygiene as a treatment for the soldiers in her hospital. As a result, modern nursing was born. The second part of Ada’s poetical science is interpretation. Strong mathematical training gave her the tools to correctly interpret the solutions, whether they were quantitative or qualitative. For instance, she was able to articulate the essence of the dual-properties of wave function using functional

analysis after serious study under the famous mathematician Augustus De Morgan, one of the earliest professors of University College London (UCL). Her involvement in science was motivated by her friendship with Mary Somerville, the first female member of Royal Astronomical Society (Somerville College in Oxford was named after her). Nowadays, it is easy for us to use a software package to calculate, estimate or simulate almost any kind of results, but does the analyst understand the true meaning of the answer? For example, we heard of a senior analytics executive who told people that their results must be correct just because they had a large sample size, without considering the sampling bias. This is a classic example of misinterpretation; we know the price of everything and the value of nothing. When we build quantitative models, it is important to be able to interpret the results properly. It is even more important to build a model that can be interpreted, especially those models built for business in regulated industries such as banking or insurance. Suppose you have two models for lending decisions: one for Facebook and another one for your website. If you cannot properly interpret the

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February 2017

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explanatory factors of your models, you might come up with a discrimination lawsuit. It is because someone might accuse you of “knowingly” discriminating against certain groups based on their political belief or race from their Facebook profile! The last part of Ada’s poetical science is integration. This is another area where Ada’s talent shone. In writing the note for Charles Babbage’s “Analytical Engine,” her approach stated the overall issues and then the defining terms, a very systematic method indeed. She used the same approach to teach mathematics to young students; she invoked the visual elements using colored pens, which were considered vulgar instruments at that time. Nevertheless, this was an ingenious way to integrate abstract models into pragmatic applications. How to integrate conceptual models into implementation is also a big, and probably the most, challenging aspect of analytics. A few years ago Netflix had a competition to build the best predictive model for movie recommendations. The winning model was not implemented due to its complexity. A great analyst can see the key aspects of a problem and find the best integrated solution, not just the best algorithm or the most elegant model or the latest technology.This is not unlike the current system thinking approach to problem-solving! How Would That Work? Ada emphasized using imag ination to see connections between subjects that have no apparent connection and then to penetrate the world around us in the world of science. Books on innovation can fill up a whole room, and even a famous writer, Walter Issacson [6], has devoted a chapter on the importance of Ada’s innovative imagination – a critical part of the advances in technology that ultimately led to the founding of Silicon Valley. Coincidentally, in the “Industrializing Analytics: Delivering Analytics at Scale into Core Organizational Processes” seminar hosted by the Department of Management Science & Engineering of Stanford University on April 21, 2016, Professor Blake Johnson suggested a new type of analytics professional – the business scientist – who can design and deploy industrial analytics and can execute rather than pursue a better algorithm. This echoes the view that data scientist could learn from history because technological advance, outsourcing and innovation diffusion could make those with just technical skills obsolete [7]. Integrating the evidence with feasibility is instrumental to any successful program. This is an area where we could use the poetical science

framework. We need to open our hearts to listen to other voices and concerns (give empathy), open our minds to different approaches (use metaphor) and open our brain to alternatives (be imaginative). “When we integrate poetry and science it can change our perception of reality” [8]. We often fail to notice that logic and passion can live under the same roof. This may be the future of the analytics profession, a poetical scientist. Even medical schools are incorporating liberal arts education into their training because medical professionals need to be imaginative and go beyond science [9]. Conclusion Dr. Betty Toole, Ada’s biographer, said Ada could be a derivative trader if she were alive today, as she had a keen interest in betting on horse racing. We beg to differ, as she could probably be a popular writer/presenter/celebrity like Malcolm Gladwell because she was able to articulate abstract concepts in animated terms, as well as having a burning intellectual curiosity. Her poetical science idea was so far ahead of her time that it is still relevant today and probably will stay as relevant in the foreseeable future. We will conclude with the “Stanzas” of Lord Byron: “To do good to mankind is the chivalrous plan. And is always as nobly requited.” ORMS

We often

fail to notice that

logic and passion can live under the same roof.

This may be the future of the

analytics profession, a

poetical scientist.

Aaron Lai (aaron.lai@st-hughs.oxon.org) is the senior manager of Analytics for Blue Shield of California. In addition to publications from analytics to risk management, he obtained two patents with five pending across various areas. All opinions expressed here are his own, and they do not necessarily reflect those of his employer and his affiliations. Editor’s note: An earlier version of this article appeared in Analytics magazine.

NOTES & REFERENCES 1. Brynjolfsson, E. and McAfee, A., 2016, “The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies,” W. W. Norton & Company; 1st edition. 2. Berlin, I., 2001, “Root of Romanticism, 9.” 3. Kermode, F., 2001, “Romantic Image 2nd Edition, Routledge Classics, No. 5. 4. Unless stated otherwise, the information about Ada Lovelace came from Toole, B., 1998, “Ada Lovelace’s Poetical Science” in WSES Conference Proceeding, Athens, Greece, and Toole, B., 2010, “Ada, the Enchantress of Numbers: Poetical Science,” Kindle Edition. 5. A very entertaining biography of Lord Byron and his relationship with Lady Byron and Ada Lovelace can be found in Woodley, B., 2002, “The Bride of Science: Romance, Reason and Byron’s Daughter,” Macmillan, 1st Edition. 6. Isaacson, W. 2014, “The Innovators: How a Group of Hackers, Geniuses and Geeks Created the Digital Revolution,” Simon & Schuster, Inc. This book discussed Ada’s detailed understanding (via imagination) of the implication of having a general purpose “thinking” machine. 7. Lai, A., 2014, “What Data Scientists can learn from History, Annals of Information Systems,” Springer, Special Issue on Real World Data Mining Applications. 8. Toole, B., 2010, 4578. 9. Henderson, L. et al., 2016, “Why get a liberal education? It is the life and breath of medicine,” The Conversation, Aug. 15, 2016.

February 2017

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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS SOFTWARE SURVEY

Trends, developments and what the past year of sports and politics taught us about variability and statistical predictions. Image © Thananit Suntiviriyanon | 123rf.com

By James J. Swain

The joys and perils of statistics “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”

– Danish saying, variously attributed to Niels Bohr or Yogi Berra

We were repeatedly reminded several times last year that variability can confound statistical predictions and unlikely events do occur. Upsets in sports and politics are always news, since having the underdog beat the “sure thing” is surprising and noteworthy. What is exciting in sports is unexpected in politics, since we expect our predictions to do better when the business is serious.We certainly don’t expect to see another “Dewey Wins!” headline, but both the Brexit vote and Trump’s election clearly confounded consensus predictions. In the latter case, the actual margins in several key states were very small – but in politics as in sports a win is a win. 38 | ORMS Today

February 2017

It was also noteworthy that while data-savvy campaign teams seemed to be the story in the previous election cycle, Trump’s campaign seemed to demonstrate that they weren’t essential. The savvy predictions may have been correct, yet an 80 percent chance of winning is not a certainty, and the less likely outcome is still possible. Upsets in statistical prediction was not the only big story in statistics this year. The inability of researchers to replicate published experiments in several fields, such as psychology, have called published experimental results into question. It has also led to revisions in thinking about the old standby, the p-value. ormstoday.informs.org

For instance, in one study of 100 articles in top psychology journals, only about 36 percent of the significant results were successfully replicated. Last May the American Statistical Association issued a statement condemning the use of any single measure, such as p-values, as a substitute for scientific reasoning. One journal, Basic and Applied Social Psychology, has eliminated their use altogether. Problems with an over reliance on the p-value have been known for years. In traditional hypothesis testing, the p-value is the probability of observing a statistic of the value (or larger) than the observed statistics under the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is rejected when the p-value is sufficiently small, under the assumption that the alternative is the more likely explanation. Of course, in any large number of experiments, a “significant” result (i.e., one with a low p-value) is increasingly likely to occur, as quantified by the Bonferroni inequality. That is why running many experiments and reporting only the “significant” ones distorts the actual p-value. One way to deal with the uncertainty with what p-value means is through experimental replication, which can either confirm the noteworthy result or fail to do so. In the latter case, the lack of significant result in the replication suggests that the first was simply a “false positive.” Since journals generally prefer novel results to replication of existing results, there is little incentive for independent replication. Software for Statistics The goal in any statistical investigation is to bring some insight forth from the data, whether confirmation of a research hypothesis, or the reassurance that some process is still ticking along at the proper precision and regularity, or in building a usable model. To obtain these useful results, software must be able to perform a variety of functions including data acquisition and editing, presentation of results or relations among variables, transformations as needed, and computations to support the analysis. Computers were once human, as the recent hit film “Hidden Figures” illustrates. At Langley, the best computers were prized for their insight into the underlying analysis and physical processes as well as computations [1]. The best modern software should provide the same assistance, both the computations that we choose, as well as further tools to enable further analysis that are suggested by analysis. The investigation is usually iterative, using one result to suggest alternative approaches and further experiments. Software will also include the ability to compute critical values from the reference sampling distributions such as the normal, t and F, from which p-values (for instance) can be computed. In fact, many of our critical mathematical and statistical tables were first computed by human computers in the early part of last century. This is noted in another book about human computers, “When Computers were Human” [2].

Software offers more than simply computations. Exploratory analysis was in part designed to generate quick pictures of the data that could be assembled quickly and by hand – dot plots, stem-and-leaf and the box plot, for instance, minimizing complexity of computation for insight. Increasingly, multiple plots are provided in arrays or at the margins of other plots. For instance, box plots or histograms display the marginal distributions while the central plot provides the scatter plot. In multivariate investigations, a two-dimensional array of two-dimensional scatter plots helps the analyst visualize higher dimensional relationships. The best software provides the interactive ability to manipulate plots interactively to identify points or sets of points that are noteworthy (e.g., outliers) or to transform the variables within a graph.This is a particular strength of the JMP software. Software provides a greatly enhanced range of graphical displays. Graphics are an excellent way to visualize data – to see distributions and commonalities across variables or in location. Data can also be summarized geographically. A recent popular interest article in The New York Times is representative of the possibilities. In the 2016 presidential election results, voting for Donald Trump was more highly correlated with certain popular television shows than with presidential voting in the last election. The cultural divide remarked upon during the election was paralleled with selections from among 50 television shows across the counties of the United States and then correlated to election results. The correlation is more easily understood graphically than numerically [3]. Finally, good statistical software can assist in the design of experiments. A good analysis, often in the context of the old PDCA cycle of “plan, do, check and act” begins with a question and a plan for the collection of experimental data. Software can be used to assist in sample size computations through power analysis, or provide specialized designs for a range of designs in one or more variables. Modern software has the additional advantage that it opens analysis to a wider circle of individuals who would not be able to perform the analyses themselves. Since computations are less of a requirement, introductions to statistics are available to a wide array of individuals. The American Statistical Association sponsors teacher clinics for classes and poster competitions at the K-12 level, and AP statistics courses are growing quickly as well. Software Survey Products This survey of products is an update of the survey published in 2015.The biennial statistical software products survey in this issue provides capsule information about 19 products selected from 13 vendors. The tools range from general tools that cover the important techniques of inference and estimation, as well as specialized activities such as nonlinear regression, forecasting and design of experiments.The product information contained in the survey was obtained from product vendors and is summarized in the following tables to highlight general features, Software Survey, continued on p. 40

February 2017

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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Software Survey, continued from p. 39

capabilities, computing requirements, and to provide contact information. Many of the vendors have their own websites for further, detailed information, and many provide demonstration programs that can be downloaded from these sites. No attempt was made to evaluate or rank the products, and the information provided comes from the vendors themselves.The survey will be available on the Lionheart Publishing website (www.lionhrtpub.com).Vendors that were unable to make the publishing deadline will be added to the online survey. Products that provide statistical add-ins available for use with spreadsheets remain popular and provide enhanced specialized capabilities for spreadsheets. The spreadsheet is the primary computational tool in a wide variety of settings, familiar and accessible to all. Many procedures of data summarization, estimation, inference, basic graphics and even regression modeling can be added to spreadsheets in this way. An example is the Unistat add-in for Excel. The functionality of products for use with spreadsheets continues to grow, including risk analysis and Monte Carlo sampling, such as Oracle Crystal Ball. Dedicated general and special purpose statistical software generally have a wider variety and depth of analysis than available in the add-in software. For many specialized techniques such as forecasting, design of experiments and so forth, a statistical package is appropriate. In general, statistical

software plays a distinct role on the analyst’s desktop, and provided that data can be freely exchanged among applications, each part of an analysis can be made with the most appropriate (or convenient) software tool. An important feature of statistical programs is the importation of data from as many sources as possible, to eliminate the need for data entry when data is already available from another source. Most programs have the ability to read from spreadsheets and selected data storage formats. Within the survey we observe several specialized products, such as STAT::FIT, which are more narrowly focused on distribution fitting than general statistics, but of particular use to developers of models for stochastic systems, reliability and risk. ORMS James J. Swain (swainjj@uah.edu) is professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems and Engineering Management at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. He is a member of ASA, INFORMS, IIE and ASEE.

REFERENCES 1. Margot Lee Shetterly, 2016, “Hidden Figures,” William Morrow. 2. David Alan Grier, 2005, “When Computers Were Human,” Princeton University Press. 3. Josh Katz, 2016, “‘Duck Dynasty’ vs. ‘Modern Family’: 50 Maps of the U.S. Cultural Divide,” The New York Times, The Upshot, Dec. 27. Available online at: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/12/26/upshot/duck-dynasty-vsmodern-family-television-maps.html?_r=0

INFORMS PROFESSIONAL COLLOQUIUM (IPC) Student Nominations Sought Nominations are being sought for aspiring graduate students seeking industry positions to attend the IPC. The 2017 INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics & Operations Research will be held in Las Vegas from April 2–4. The INFORMS Professional Colloquium is a full-day workshop within the Conference that consists of talks, panel discussions, and role play sessions organized by O.R. leaders and practitioners from diverse industry segments. The colloquium is not only designed to help the participants transition into a successful industry career, but is also an excellent networking opportunity where the students can interact with O.R. leaders and practitioners.

VISIT: http://meetings2.informs.org/wordpress/analytics2017/professional-colloquium/

CONTACT Ellen Tralongo ellen.tralongo@informs.org

40 | ORMS Today

February 2017

ormstoday.informs.org

Healthcare 2017 OPTIMIZING OPERATIONS & OUTCOMES INFORMS Healthcare 2017 brings together academic researchers in “healthcare analytics” and industry stakeholders who are applying and sharing research to improve the delivery of effective healthcare.

Keynote Speakers Dimitris Bertsimas Operations Research Center Massachusetts Institute of Technology Brian Denton Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering University of Michigan Dr. Eric de Roodenbeke CEO International Hospital Federation

SUBMIT YOUR ABSTRACT

Deadline for submission is Monday, February 27, 2017

http://meetings.informs.org/healthcare2017

HEALTHCARE 20 7 Rotterdam, Netherlands | July 26–28, 2017

Year 1st Version Was Released

Software Description

Targeted Markets

Operating Systems

PC/Win dows (W in7) PC/Win dows (9 7, NT) PC/Win dows (W in10) PC/LINU X UNIX Mac

Other (s pecify)

Software Product Listing

AcaStat

1999 Inexpensive and easy to Education and use data analysis tool. research

y – y – – y

–

Analytic Solver Data Mining (XLMiner) Frontline Systems, Inc.

2011 Data exploration, forecasting, data mining, text mining in Excel and the cloud

Business analysts / “citizen data scientists,” crossindustry

y y y – – – Browser for cloudbased version

Autobox

1976

Clarity

2010

AcaStat Software

Automatic Forecasting Systems, Inc.

AcaStat Software

Convergent Cluster and Ensemble Analysis 1988 (CCEA) Sawtooth Software

Crystal Ball

1987

Oracle

GAUSS Mathematical & Statistical System 1984 Automatic Forecasting Systems, Inc.

–

JMP

1989

JMP Pro

1989 JMP Pro is the version of JMP that includes advanced analytics tools for predictive modeling, analysis and visualization.

Any industry where preferences are of interest (pricing, demand, healthcare treatment, education, etc.)

y – y – – y

Lighthouse Studio

1983 Design, field (online & offline), analyze and run simulations for conjoint analysis and MaxDiff (best/worst) exercises.

Any industry where preferences are of interest (pricing, demand, healthcare treatment, education)

y – y – – – Simplified browser -only edition available

SAS

Sawtooth Software

42 | ORMS Today

Export Formats

Tab and CSV delimited and Tab and CSV delimited and AcaStat AcaStat system files system files

CSV, Excel, Power, Pivot, CSV, Excel, Power BI, Tableau, SQL SQL database, Apache Spark database, others cluster, others Automatic modeling & Any market Excel, Text Excel, Text y y y y y – SUN forecasting, adapts to forecasting, data SOLARIS, level shifts, outliers, cleansing, promotion IBM AIX, seasonal pulses, trends, response, early HP, R lead/lags of causals warning systems Conducts common Any – Tab and comma delimited and Tab and comma delimited and y – y – – y statistical procedures AcaStat system files. AcaStat system files. on data entered or imported. Ensemble and k-means All industries including y – y – – – – CSV CSV clustering manufacturing, finance, oil, gas, and energy, government, and pharmaceuticals Oracle Crystal Ball is Cross-industry – XLS, CSV, TXT XLS, CSV, TXT y y y – – – – a spreadsheet-based commercial application for enterprise, predictive modeling, government and forecasting, simulation academia and optimization Efficient, scalable Cross-industry – – CSV, Excel, SAS, STATA CSV, Excel, SAS, STATA, Oracle, y – y y – y math/stat environment commercial enterOracle, My-SQL, DB2 My-SQL, DB2 suitable cross-industry prise, government and AI/machine learning, academia statistics, economet rics, engineering MJC’s i-Data Used by scientists Several Several y y y y y – – forecasting software and engineers in a provides demand variety of industries forecasting, capacity worldwide. Also used planning & real-time in academia and monitoring functionality government sectors. JMP is powerful Used by professionals y – y – – y – JMP, Excel, Flat text files, PNG, JPEG, SVG, EPS, PDF, EMF, statistical analysis in many industries SAS, R code, MATLAB code, GIF, TIFF, PowerPoint Presentation, software linked with and government HTML, FACS, SPSS, xBase, JMP Journal, JMP Report, Text File, interactive graphics sectors worldwide. Shape files, Minitab, Teradata Interactive HTML with Data, HTML, in memory and on the Also included in databases, Data in databases RTF, Microsoft Word, JMP Data desktop. academic licenses. through ODBC, JSON Table, Text Export File, CSV, etc.

iData MJC2

Data Import Import Formats

February 2017

–

JMP, Excel, Flat, text files, SAS, R code, MATLAB code, HTML, FACS, SPSS, xBase, Shape files, Minitab, Teradata databases, Data in databases through ODBC, JSON

MATLAB code, HTML, FACS, SPSS, xBase, Shape files, Minitab, Teradata databases, Data in databases through ODBC, PNG, JPEG, SVG, EPS, PDF, EMF, GIF, TIFF, PowerPoint Presentation, etc.

CSV CSV, Excel, SPSS, fixed width PowerPoint

ormstoday.informs.org

Tools

Pricing Information

Free demo limited to 20 observations

–

New features include an explore feature that produces key statistics and charts and a summary statistics module.

–

$60

–

Interactive charts & tables, heterogeneous ensembles, enhanced neural networks, PMML models, rescaling on-the-fly, much more

20%

Call

30-day trial

–

$9.99

–

Free demo limited to 20 observations

N/A

$10

30-day trial

y y y y – y y y y – y y – – – – y y – – y y – – – – – y – – $995

–

$369

–

$99

–

Microsoft Office 2016 compatibility, simulate prediction paths in Predictor, revamped example models in Crystal Ball

y y y y – – y y y – – – y – – – y y y y y y y – y – – y y y $3,095 Single User

Varies

$745 Single User

$1,000

Demo: Free

Varies

Improved data handling, graphics functionality, mathematical and statistical functionality, and HPCC support

PoA

Query Builder, Virtual Joins, Dashboard Builder, Fit Definitive Screening, Text Explorer, Process Screening

y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y $1,620

Call for pricing

$795

Call for pricing

y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y $14,900

Call for pricing

N/A

Call for Academic Suite pricing

N/A

$1,000 or $3,000 for 50 seats depending on capabilities

30-day trial

–

y y y y y y y – y – – – y – – – y y y y y y y – y y y y y y $1,995

–

$600

y – – y – y y – – – – – – – – – y y – – – – – – – – – y y – $800 and up

Call

– – y – – – y – y – – – y – – – y – y – – – – – – – – – – – $9.99

y – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – y – – – – – – –

$500

– y y y – y y y y y y – – – – y y y y y y y y y y y – – y y PoA

Disy – – y y – y – – – – – – y – – – – y – – – y – – – – – – – Various depending counted on by capabil- number ities of licenses

Site

Free

y – y – – y y – y – – – y – – – y – y – – – – – – – – – – – $19.99

Single M achine

Comments/New Features (since 2015)

Site

Demo/Student

Single M achine

Educational

$19.99

Site

Single M achine

Online H elp/Tuto rials EDA (Exp loratory Data An Data Ed alysis) it/Trans formati Graphic on s Dynamic (plot lin Graphics king, da ta brush ing) Tables Descrip tive Sta tistics Distribu tion Fitti ng Nonpara metric Statistic Power/ s Sample Size Co Quality mp. & Proce ss Capa Six Sigm bility a ANOVA/G LM DOE (De sign of Experim Respon ents) se Surf ace Me Respon thods se Optim ization Regress ion Fitti ng Regress ion Sele ction Logistic Regress ion Nonline ar Regre ssion Time Se ries/Fore casting Multiva riate Sta tistics Clusteri ng/Clas sificatio Reliabil n ity/Surv ival Ana Data/Da lysis tabase M a nageme Data M nt ining CART Resamp ling/Mo nte Carl Link to o Pro (e.g., C+ gramming La nguage +, R, etc .) Machin e Learn ing

Commercial

Improved interface and additional nonparametric statistical procedures.

–

Student: Contact Aptech PoA

$29.95/ Call for 6 months pricing $49.95/ 12 months

February 2017

Simulated forecasting resampling to generate a distribution of forecasts for better C.I., elasticities option

–

Virtual joins, dashboard builder, fit definitive screening, text explorer, process screening

See JMP. Plus: Formula Depot & scoring code, Generalized Regression, General Simulation functionality New choice simulator to turn models into demand estimates including awareness and availability, improved mobile support

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Software Description

Targeted Markets

Scientists, engineers, operations researchers, academic

Optimal Scientist Software Package

Scientists, engineers, 1993 Optimal Scientist Software Package – operations researchers, design and analysis of academics optimal experiments and general purpose graph program

SigmaXL

1998 SigmaXL is an easy to use Excel add-in for graphical and Six Sigma statistical analysis.

Transpower Corporation

SigmaXL, Inc.

Simulation and modeling, risk assessment, reliability, quality, engineering and financial mgmt.

Other (s pecify)

2012 Software for analyzing multi-choice (menu) data sets

Sawtooth Software

Data Import Import Formats

Software Product Listing

Menu-Based Conjoint

Operating Systems

PC/Win dows (W in7) PC/Win dows (9 7, NT) PC/Win dows (W in10) PC/LINU X UNIX Mac

Year 1st Version Was Released

y – y – – –

–

y y y – y –

–

y y y – – y

–

y y y – – –

–

y – y – – y

–

Export Formats

CSV CSV, Excel Text Text N/A N/A Delimited text files Distribution formats for simulation software products Tab and comma delimited and Tab and comma delimited and AcaStat system files. AcaStat system files.

Stat::Fit

1995 Statistically fits to your Education and data the most useful Research analytical distribution and exports into specific forms for simulation

StatCalc

1999 Designed to compare summary statistics, develop confidence intervals, and conduct common statistical procedures.

Vanguard Business Analytics Suite

Application developers, y y y – – – 2008 Modeling tool for statistical/data analysis, cross-industry Monte Carlo simulation, decision tree analysis, forecasting and optimization

–

ODBC/SQL, File Read/Write (CSV and TXT), Web Services (SOAP and REST)

XLMiner SDK

2016 Software Development Kit for forecasting, data mining, text mining

Business analysts, y y y – – – researchers, students

–

CSV, Excel, R dataframes, SQL database, Apache Spark cluster

CSV, Excel, dataframes in multiple programming languages

XLSTAT

1996 XLSTAT is a general statistical software that runs in MS Excel

y y y – – y

–

Excel

Excel, TXT, CSV

Geer Mountain Software Corporation

AcaStat Software

Vanguard Software

Frontline Systems, Inc.

Addinsoft

VENDOR DIRECTORY

AcaStat Software 554 Presido Park Place Poinciana, FL 34759 863-438-2581 phil@acastat.com http://www.acastat.com

Addinsoft 40 rue Damremont Paris 33000 France 33 1 70060488 33 1 53016588 info@xlstat.com http://www.xlstat.com

44 | ORMS Today

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All industries and government; SMBs to Fortune 100

Aptech Systems, Inc. 2350 E Germann Road Suite 21 Chandler, AZ 85286 360-886-7100 360-886-8922 info@aptech.com www.aptech.com

Automatic Forecasting Systems, Inc. P.O. Box 563 Hatboro, PA 19040 215-675-0652 sales@autobox.com www.autobox.com

Frontline Systems, Inc. P.O. Box 4288 Incline Village, NV 89450 775-831-0300 775-831-0314 info@solver.com www.solver.com/xlminer & www.solver. com/xlminer-sdk

Geer Mountain Software Corporation 104 Geer Mountain Road South Kent, CT 06785 860-927-8000 statfit@geerms.com www.geerms.com

ormstoday.informs.org

Pricing Information

y – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – y y y – – – – – – – – – – – $6,000

Discounted by number of licenses

y y – y – y y – y y y – y y y y y y – y y y – – y y – – – – $595 for Negotiate Win/DOS; $495 for download only; $995 for UNIX y y y y – y y y y y y y y y y – y y y – – – – y – – – – – – $249 http://www.

N/A

$3,000 for 50 seats

30-day trial

$495 for Negotiate NA Win/DOS; $395 for download only; $895 for UNIX Contact http://www. Contact

sigmaxl.com/ Contact_ SigmaXL_ Support. shtml

30-day trial

–

http://www. sigmaxl.com/ Contact_ SigmaXL_ Support. shtml

ANOM charts, multiple comparisons (post-hoc), new templates/calculators, chisquare tests and descriptive statistics Version 3 is faster with new graphics capabilities, more intuitive user interface and accepts up to 50,000 data points

$1,500

None

Free

– – y – – – y – y – – – y – – – y – y – – – – – – – – – – – $9.99

–

$9.99

–

Free demo

–

Call or email for pricing

Determines optimal value of predictor variables and the resultant optimal regression equation; performs all-ways multiple reg

y – y y – y y y – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – $289

Call or 50% y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y – y y – – y y y $3,395 (one-time) email for Discount + $595 pricing per year (support & maint.)

Comments/New Features (since 2015)

Demo/Student

Single M achine

Site

Single M achine

Educational

Site

Single M achine

Commercial

Site

Tools

–

Call or Call or – email for email for demo demo license license

y y y – – y y – y – – – y – – – y y y y y y y – y y y y y y $1,995

–

High-level object-oriented SDK for C++, C# and Java as well as R and Python - new in 2016

y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y – y y y y y y – y – y y y – y $275 for the base package

–

$165 for the base package

–

$50 for the base package

–

Machine learning algorithms, new interface

MJC2 33 Wellington Business Park Crowthorne Berkshire RG45 6LS United Kingdom 1 344 760000 info@mjc2.com http://www.mjc2.com/demandforecasting-software.htm

Oracle 7700 Technology Way Denver, CO 80237 303-506-8846 eric.wainwright@oracle.com www.oracle.com/crystalball

SAS SAS Campus Drive Cary, NC 27513 919-677-8000 919-677-4444 sales@jmp.com www.jmp.com

Sawtooth Software 1457 East 840 North Orem, UT 84057 801-477-4700 801-434-5493 support@sawtoothsoftware.com www.sawtoothsoftware.com

SigmaXL Inc. 305 King Street West Suite 503 Kitchener, ON N2G 1B9 Canada 866-475-2124 416-352-0037 information@sigmaxl.com www.SigmaXL.com

Vanguard Software 1100 Crescent Green Cary, NC 27518 919-859-4101 919-851-9457 sales@vanguardsw.com www.vanguardsw.com

Transpower Corporation P. O. Box 7132 Penndel, PA 19047 215-355-7011 transpower@aol.com www.transpowercorp.com

February 2017

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http://meetings.informs.org/analytics2017

ormstoday.informs.org

news

Inside News

Business Analytics Conference ready to roll into Las Vegas

48 49 50 51 51 52 53 53 54 61 61

Edelman Gala Q&A with committee chair Marketing Conference Healthcare Conference Roundtable review: fall meeting In Memoriam: Thomas Schelling In Memoriam: Bernard Barfoot In Memoriam: Philip Wolfe Subdivision awards People Meetings

Plenary:

Advanced analytics at American Airlines Jim Diamond, managing director of operations research and advanced analytics at American Airlines, will be the plenary speaker at the 2017 INFORMS Conference on Business Jim Diamond Analytics and Operations Research. The conference will be held April 2-4 at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas.

His topic: Caesars Palace, site of the 2017 INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics & O.R., sits on the famed Las Vegas Strip. Image ÂŠ Thickstock

The 2017 INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics & Operations Research will take place in Las Vegas on April 2-4 at Caesars Palace. Analytics 2017 will bring together nearly a thousand leading analytics professionals and industry experts to share ideas, network and learn through real-life examples of databased analytical decisions. Long-formatted talks offer an outlet to hear the complete story of successful analytical projects from inception through implementation. This conference also offers substantial networking opportunities, making it the analytics event of the year for anyone who works in the analytics, operations research or management science fields. Hand-picked topics and speakers. The Analytics Conference has seen huge growth and success year after year due in part to the conference program committees. They develop the topic tracks, select speakers and organize the presentations that comprise the heart of the conference. Maher Lahmar, IBM

solution executive (see Q&A on page 49), chairs the Analytics 2017 Committee. The 38 members of the program committee include analysts and managers from companies such as Accenture, BNSF Railway, Chevron, Deloitte, Gartner, Google, Innovative Decisions, Intel, InterContinental Hotels Group, Kroger, Lockheed Martin, Mayo Clinic, The MITRE Corp., SAS, Schneider and Walt Disney Company, as well as leading universities and government agencies. The conference committee has designated nine topical tracks for the 2017 invited speaker program: Analytics Leadership and Soft Skills, Analytics on Unstructured Data, Decision and Risk Analysis, Emerging Analytics, Entertainment and Gaming, Internet of Things, Marketing Analytics, Revenue Management and Pricing, and Supply Chain Applications. Leading analytics professionals from companies such as American Airlines, Amazon, Boeing, Caterpillar, Disney, General Motors, Google, Netflix, UPS and many others, as well as

From Flying Machines to Machine Learning: Advanced Analytics at American Airlines On any given day, American Airlines will fly more than a quarter of a million passengers on approximately 3,400 flights, deliver more than 300,000 pieces of baggage and receive more than 239,000 reservations calls. Tasked with impeccable logistics alongside top-notch customer service, American Airlines has long leveraged information technology and advanced analytics for competitive advantage and improved decision-making. Analytics play a part in all areas of the business, including planning flight schedules, allocating discount fares, assigning crews, routing aircraft, optimizing spare part inventories and understanding customer behavior. In this session, Diamond will provide examples from across the airline of how advanced analytics are being used to gain insights and solve some of American Airlinesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; most challenging and complex problems. Diamond leads teams responsible for delivering analytical insights and developing decision support tools for various departments, from planning to operations, across the airline. Prior to this role, he held various leadership positions at Sabre, the travel technology company. Diamond received his B.S. degree from Cornell University and an M.S. and Ph.D. from Purdue University.

2017 Conference, continued on p. 48

February 2017

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new s 2017 Conference, continued from p. 47

operations researchers from top universities and government organizations have signed on to speak at the premier conference on business analytics and operations research. The program will be rounded out by six tracks of hand-picked member-contributed talks, software tutorials from vendor sponsors and poster presentations. Poster presenters offered discounted registration rate. Interested students and professionals may submit a poster proposal and receive a discounted registration rate if selected to present at the meeting. The poster format is great for works-in-progress on which the speaker is looking for feedback or successful projects that may not be extensive enough for a 50-minute talk. The deadline for all poster presentations to be submitted is Feb. 20. If your poster is selected you can take advantage of a discounted registration rate of $1,070. Conference venue. The conference will be held at one of the most prestigious resorts in the world, Caesars Palace. This iconic resort is one of the largest on the Las Vegas Strip. Caesars includes five towers of rooms, a pool garden, numerous bars, restaurants and other nightlife locations, and much more. It is connected to The Forum Shops, which include approximately 160 specialty stores, fine restaurants and attractions. If you venture outside of the hotel you will find yourself in the middle of a global crossroads. The Las Vegas Strip is

Meeting of Analytics Program Directors The inaugural Meeting of Analytics Program Directors (MAPD) will be held on April 1, 2017, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, the day before the start of the 2017 INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics & Operations Research in the same locale. Sponsored by INFORMS, the meeting is designed to provide program directors of college analytics programs with a forum for discussion, networking and the sharing of best practices. While master’s level programs are the majority, this first-of-its-kind meeting is open to program directors representing bachelor’s and doctoral level programs as well. The goal is to provide a platform for the types of exchanges that will raise the bar for all analytics programs and ultimately lead to better outcomes for students. Additionally, by supporting this emerging cadre of academics who lead analytics programs, INFORMS hopes that this meeting will help foster new ideas and new energy going forward. J. David Dittman, director of Business Intelligence & Analytics Services at Procter and Gamble, will deliver the opening plenary at MAPD. The topic: “An Industry Connection: An Industry View of Essential Components of a Graduate Analytics Program.” Other speakers include: Pooja Dewan, general director of decision support systems, BNSF Railway; Jeff Camm, associate dean of business analytics, Wake Forest University; Sharif Melouk, associate professor of operations management,  Culverhouse College of Commerce, University of Alabama; Terry Harrison, professor of supply chain and information systems and executive education professor in the Smeal College of Business, Penn State University; Melissa R. Bowers, director of the master’s in Business Analytics Program and associate professor, Haslam College of Business, University of Tennessee, Knoxville; and Michael Rappa, Goodnight director, Institute for Advanced Analytics and distinguished university professor, Department of Computer Science, North Carolina State University. The all-day event is free of charge. For more information, contact Bill Griffin, manager, INFORMS Continuing Education Program (bgriffin@informs.org).

the entertainment capital of the world, with shows and restaurants galore. The Hoover Dam is a short 30-minute ride away. If you are feeling really adventurous you can venture a bit farther and take a 2.5-hour drive to the Grand Canyon. Las Vegas really is fabulous and offers a little bit of something for everyone. Organizations can take advantage of the $1,070 team discount rate when

they send three or more attendees to the conference. A $1,070 newcomer rate is also offered. This special rate applies to any INFORMS member who is attending the conference for the first time. All meals for two days are included in all registration fees. For more information regarding conference registration or submitting a presentation, visit: meetings.informs.org/ analytics2017. ORMS

Edelman Awards Gala One of the highlights of the INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics & O.R. is the Edelman Awards Gala, an Oscar-like evening celebrating the world’s best examples of applied operations research and high-end analytics work. This year’s gala will be held on Monday, April 3, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. The six finalists for the 46th annual Franz Edelman Award for Achievements in Operations Research and Management Science, the world’s most prestigious award for achievement in the practice of analytics and O.R., include: The American Red Cross, in partnership with researchers from the Georgia Institute of Technology, developed a new blood collection model to reduce the expenses associated with the 44,000 blood donations needed in the United States each day. Barco, a global technology company that manufactures products for the entertainment, healthcare and enterprise markets, partnered with researchers from the IESEG School of Management in France and the University KU Leuven and Vlerick Business School in Belgium

48 | ORMS Today

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to support the assessment and development of product platforms for the company’s production and development of high-tech screens used in medical devices. BHP Billiton, one of the world’s largest producers of major commodities including iron ore, coal and other metals and minerals, partnered with AMEC Foster Wheeler to prepare the company to expand into the production of bulk fertilizer commodities. The project sought to create a model that incorporated every component of mining, hoisting and ore processing, while decreasing capital and operating expenses, and increasing production capacity. General Electric (GE) partnered with Norfolk Southern (NS) Railroad to create and implement an algorithm to dispatch thousands of trains in real time, increase their average speed, and realize annual savings in the hundreds of millions. Holiday Retirement, the largest private owner and operator of independent senior living communities in the United States with more than 300 facilities and $1 billion in annual revenue, partnered with Prorize LLC to revise

its outdated pricing model, replacing it with a new revenue management system that would increase revenue and improve customer satisfaction. New York City Department of Transportation, in conjunction with researchers from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute’s VREF Center of Excellence for Sustainable Urban Freight Systems, developed the Off Hours Delivery (OHD) Project. This project, which began in 2002 to transform urban freight policy by transitioning delivery times to the off-hours of 7 p.m.-6 a.m. when New York City streets are less congested, is currently in use by more than 400 establishments and is being implemented internationally. All six finalists will present their work in a series of sessions at the conference before a panel of judges before the winner is announced at the Awards Gala. Previous winners of the Franz Edelman Award include UPS, IBM, Syngenta, The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, Hewlett-Packard, General Motors, among others. ORMS

ormstoday.informs.org

Conference chair Maher Lahmar: Welcome to the best show in Vegas! Following is an interview with Maher Lahmar, solution executive, Watson Customer Engagement at IBM, and chair of the 2017 INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics & Operations Research: Can you tell us why the 2017 Business Analytics Conference is a must-attend event? The analytics conference is an annual event that focuses entirely on real-world applications of analytics, presented by industry and university leaders. The conference includes keynote speeches, invited talks, panels, poster sessions, career fair and an executive forum. This event also hosts the Edelman competition presentations and the Edelman Gala. The size and format of the conference allows attendees to easily take conversations beyond the scheduled sessions, network and advance their careers, whether you are a young professional, an executive or an academician. This yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s conference will take place in Las Vegas on April 2-4. We want it to be the best show in Vegas. Analytics show, I mean. For more information, visit our website: http://meetings2.informs.org/ wordpress/analytics2017/. As the conference marks its 17th anniversary, how do you see the state of analytics? Actually, it is impressive how much analytics practice has evolved to become an essential pillar of todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s organizations. Whether it is a well-established company in full transformation, a young firm that is disrupting its industry or a government organization seeking efficiency, analytics and technology are becoming pervasive across all industries. We are in an era where the analytics practice is not solely the job of dedicated teams, but pervasive all across the organization and executive ranks. I believe the days where we had to raise awareness of our discipline and convince executives of the value we can add are behind us. INFORMS and its analytics conference in particular were pioneers in elevating the role of analytics in business and

society and have contributed immensely to this achievement. Job well done, but far from complete. Analytics still has a huge untapped potential that we have to continue to promote. What would you consider the main theme of the analytics conference this year? That was the first question I asked myself when I was handed the baton. We would definitely want the conference to be an opportunity to celebrate achievement and recognize talent, but also we would like it to be a reminder that our discipline is going through major changes. Analytics practice is shifting gears from insights to action. This does not necessarily mean that insights are no more needed, it just implies that we see more and more of the analytics applications trying to go beyond handing in an insight to recommending a decision and taking actions. Change comes with challenges but also creates opportunities. We would like our attendees to get a glimpse of those challenges and potential opportunities to take their business further and advance their careers. Can you tell us more about what triggered that change? There is no question that the perceived value of analytics is growing, but so are the expectations. Technological innovations have pushed the boundaries of what is possible with analytics. Executives are recognizing the importance of new sources of data and advantages of automation, and decision-makers are demanding that analytics professionals be more engaged in the decision process. As a result, a client who could have been content with a visual dashboard deliverable a decade ago would be less impressed with anything but a decision agent curating external data feeds today. I may be painting a dramatic picture here, but my point is that things are

changing, and we would like to make sure that analytics professionals are aware of it and ahead of the curve. Maher Lahmar How will the analytics conference help practitioners adapt to these changes? Obviously, meeting these expectations requires practitioners to expand their knowledge, sharpen their skills and develop new ones. This is reflected in the mix of talks we have planned this year. As you know, over the last years, we introduced new tracks on Unstructured Data Applications and Big Data. This year we introduced tracks on IoT and Emerging Analytics applications. We also wanted to bring a flavor of Las Vegas to the conference rooms by dedicating a track to Gaming, Entertainment and Sports Analytics. This is in addition to the talks on new techniques and applications in traditional tracks such as Marketing Analytics, Supply Chain Management and Decision Analysis. We also arranged for machine-learning technical sessions such as the one on Deep Learning and scheduled sponsored workshops on the use of analytical tools. We hope to offer our attendees the opportunity to reflect on all the changes in our discipline, and what that means to their careers and our profession as a whole.

There is a surge of interest in machine learning. How does the conference embrace that? Actually, machine learning has been part of our conference for a long time under different labels and tracks. In this event, it is no exception. For instance, we will hear about how ML techniques can help optimize eCommerce merchandising at Home Depot and learn Conference Chair Q&A, continued on p. 50

February 2017

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new s Conference Chair Q&A, continued from p. 49

about the algorithms that drive surge pricing at Uber apps. We will also get a glimpse into IBM Watson research on how to add personality and emotion dimensions to conversational agents such as Apple’s Siri or Amazon’s Alexa. This is in addition to a variety of other applications that range from IoT to supply chain management and marketing. Many are still skeptical about the hype surrounding machine learning. What is your perspective on that? I am among those who believe that machine learning is just at the beginning of the journey. Many of the emerging applications such as driverless cars and conversation assistants are real, but would be considered science fiction just a decade ago. I think what is feeding that sense of hype is the lack of understanding of the limitations and complexities involved in deploying machine learning algorithms, and in some cases the obsession of the technical aspect over the business ROI. I would like to quote Jean Utke’s, an Allstate data scientist and a speaker at the conference, who said, “there are no off-the-shelf solutions.” While there are no ready solutions out there, there is a tendency to make algorithms and emerging applications easily available for consumption to the data scientist and developers community. For instance, we will hear firsthand how a start-up called Satalia offers scalable optimization-as-a-service solutions bridging the gap between academia and industry. On a similar topic, we will learn how Deloitte consultants overcome the challenges of scaling NLP implementations in large organizations. We are also dedicating an HBR special panel session where we will raise provocative questions to help the audience distinguish the promise from the current state of machine learning. The interests of analytical professionals evolve with their careers. What can analytical leaders look forward to at the conference? Thanks for asking this question. We typically tend to focus on the scientific 50 | ORMS Today

February 2017

The conference promises to be the best (analytics) show in Las Vegas. Image © Thickstock

side of the analytics practice. Many of our attendees hold mid-management and senior leadership positions in their respective organizations and see the conference as an opportunity to exchange experience with peers on how to build and manage analytical teams. In all conversations, the question of how to attract, recruit and retain analytical talent continues to be one of the top challenges they face. This year, we will hear from business leaders about the importance of soft skills in delivering successful analytics, how they managed to build high-performing teams, and what causes of failure to avoid. In addition, we are organizing a panel

that brings leaders from a variety of companies and recruiting firms to discuss “How to Grow Analytical Teams.” Anything else to add? I want to highlight that many of our committee members are volunteering practitioners who have busy schedules and travel commitments, but are very passionate about the analytics discipline. This meant that the INFORMS staff had to adjust to different schedules and pace of work. For these reasons, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to the conference committee members and INFORMS team. They are the ones who went the extra mile to make it happen. ORMS

ISMS Marketing Science Conference The 39th Annual ISMS Marketing Science Conference will be held June 7-10 at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles. The ISMS Marketing Science Conference is an annual event that brings together leading marketing scholars, practitioners and policymakers with a shared interest in rigorous scientific research on marketing problems. Topics include but are not limited to

branding, segmentation, consumer choice, competition, strategy, advertising, pricing, product, innovation, distribution, retailing, social media, Internet marketing, global marketing, big data, machine learning, choice models, game theory, structural models and randomized control trials. Early registration ends March 15. For more information and to register go to: https://marketingscience2017.usc.edu/. ORMS ormstoday.informs.org

ormstoday.informs.org

Ready for Rotterdam: 2017 INFORMS Healthcare Conference All over the world, healthcare organizations are being challenged by obstacles related to the aging of the population and other global trends. It is vital that the complex and growing demands in healthcare delivery are tackled swiftly and optimally. With the abundance of data available, operations researchers across the globe can pool resources and share solutions to come up with innovative ideas to remedy shortcomings within current healthcare systems. The 2017 INFORMS Healthcare Conference, being held July 26-28 in Rotterdam, Netherlands, is the ideal forum for O.R. professionals to come together to optimize health service operations and outcomes. The conference with be led by conference chair Joris Van de Klundert, Institute of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University, along with program chairs Edwin Romeijn, Georgia Institute of Technology, and Sandra Sulz, Erasmus University Rotterdam. The program is organized into nine tracks of top issues that are impacting the healthcare industry today. These tracks are Disease and Treatment Modeling, Healthcare Data Analytics and Machine Learning, Health and Humanitarian Logistics, Health Information Technology and Management, Health Operations Management, Health Systems in Low and Middle Income Countries, Medical Decision-Making, Personalized Medicine, and Public Health and PolicyMaking. When attendees are not engaged in high-level talks they can take part in some of the other events that round out the program for the conference. The INFORMS Health Applications Society sponsors a student paper competition. Students are asked to submit either oral or poster presentations that will be evaluated by leading healthcare scholars on quality, novelty and importance of methodology, contribution to healthcare research and potential for impact on practice. The finalists must present their work during a special session at the conference.

There are also poster sessions during the conference that are not related to the student paper competition. These poster session presentations allow authors to present projects that are at the early stages of development, and thus benefit from the interactive critique, suggestions and encouragement from colleagues working in similar areas. The conference will take place at the De Doelen International Congress Centre, in the heart of Rotterdam, which is an emerging world leader in the

healthcare and medical industry. A group rate is available at the Rotterdam Marriott, which is linked to the Congress Centre and just a two-minute walk away from Rotterdam Central Station. There are only a limited number of rooms booked at the INFORMS group rate, so make your reservations as early as possible. For more information on this conference, including registration, the venue or the program visit: http:// meetings2.informs.org/wordpress/ healthcare2017/. ORMS

Fall 2016 Roundtable meeting roundup The fall 2016 INFORMS Roundtable meeting was held on Nov. 12-13 at the Omni Nashville Hotel in Nashville, Tenn., with a meeting theme of “Open Architecture/Internet of Things.” To help facilitate networking opportunities valued by Roundtable members, a guided tour of the Ryman Auditorium, the historical home of the Grand Ole Opry, was held on Saturday afternoon. The main program began with a presentation from Nickolas Guertin (director for Transformation to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy) and Doug Schmidt (professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at Vanderbilt University). Their talk centered on how to utilize modular and open systems as strategic levers to manage current and future system developments in domains such as IoT, healthcare and smart technologies. The next guest speaker was Tim Meyer (associate partner at IBM Global Business Services, IoT Center of Competency). Meyer discussed the value chain of IoT from sensors to networks to cloud-based platforms that can ingest multiple unstructured data sources and provide unique insights on predicting such events as wear on tires, traffic patterns and real-time supply chains.

Kirk Borne (principle data scientist, Booz Allen Hamilton) followed with a talk on Edge Analytics, which refers to moving analytics as close as possible to the point of data collection. This will enable rapid data informed discoveries, innovations and actions in dynamic data-driven application systems. The guest speakers were followed by “What Does the Roundtable Think” sessions moderated by Roundtable members Cara Curtland (HP) and Brian Eck (Google). The first set of discussions centered around open source/open architecture. Roundtable members discussed opportunities, obstacles and how companies will make the transition to these new approaches. The second set of discussions centered on the Internet of Things. Members discussed how companies will meet the challenge of turning huge amounts of data into action along with the challenges associated with pushing analytics toward real time to a broad spectrum of users. Results from the sessions will be summarized in a future OR/MS Today article. The Roundtable meeting concluded with a short business meeting conducted by Bill Browning. ORMS – John Gunckel February 2017

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new s In Memoriam

Thomas C. Schelling (1921-2016) Thomas C. Schelling, a major researcher in strategy, negotiation and social change and a longtime college professor, died Dec. 13, 2016. He was 95. Professor Schelling shared the 2005 Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences with Robert Aumann, a longtime member of INFORMS and its predecessor societies. They were honored for their research (separately) showing how game theory applies to economic and strategic negotiations and competitions. Hence, while Professor Schelling did not generally identify himself as an OR/MS analyst, his work was essential to the field. His work early in the Cold War illuminating deterrence and cooperation strategies [1,2] was highly influential in establishing and then modifying the “Mutual Assured Destruction” doctrine the U.S. pursued. Among other contributions, Professor Schelling showed that limiting one’s options may strengthen one’s negotiating position – for example, locking in a rapidly escalating response to a provocation, thus removing the more moderate response options, may help to deter the other party. On the other hand, such a doctrine increases the risk of inadvertent major conflict. Relating to the escalation risk work, Professor Schelling was also a source of inspiration for the movie “Dr. Strangelove.” He recommended to Stanley Kubrick, the movie’s director, that he read the novel “Red Alert” [3], whose author, Peter George, wound up writing much of the screenplay. Also at Professor Schelling’s recommendation, Kubrick carefully read Herman Kahn’s “On Thermonuclear War” [4], which became the source for a number of provocative lines – including the title character’s famous exclamation, “A doomsday device doesn’t do you any good if you don’t tell anyone about it!” [5]. It appears that, like Kubrick and Kahn, Professor Schelling wanted to help people understand just what the risks and trade-offs were in this critical area of strategy and policy. And, like Kubrick and Kahn, he met with mixed success in this attempt. 52 | ORMS Today

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Another of his well-known contributions was a model of how mild preferences for living with people like oneself could produce segregation in housing. This model is a staple of agentbased social science now, but he did it using coins on a checkerboard, 30 years before it was replicated in many agent-based simulations [6]. He also did important work on addiction, noting that addictive behavior is against the person’s self-interest but can be quite persistent anyway. This work helped establish the field of behavioral economics. Early in his career, after receiving a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of California, Berkeley, Professor Schelling worked for the federal government as an analyst for the Bureau of the Budget and at the White House as a foreign policy advisor to the president. Professor Schelling later returned to academia, earning a doctorate in economics from Harvard. Professor Schelling taught at Yale University from 1953 to 1958, when he left to join the economics department at Harvard. Professor Schelling remained at Harvard for more than 30 years. In 1990 he became a distinguished university professor with the University of Maryland’s Department of Economics and School of Public Policy, a post he held until his retirement in 2003 [7]. Although the Nobel Committee and a number of prominent obituaries [7, 8, 9] did not mention wargaming, Professor Schelling was famous for that, too, and at very high levels. A story he liked to tell about himself was that a couple of generals were walking out of the White House Situation Room to get dinner during the Cuban Missile Crisis. One was overheard to say, “Well, now we know how realistic Schelling’s games were.” The other replied, “No, now we know how unrealistic this situation is.” As The Economist’s obituary noted, “His acceptance speech observed that ‘the most

spectacular event of the past half century is one that did not occur. We have enjoyed 60 years without nuclear weapons exploded in anger …what a stunning achievement – or, if not achievement, what stunning good fortune!’ If achievement was the word, the credit was partly his.” ORMS – Douglas A. Samuelson

REFERENCES 1. Schelling, Thomas C., 1960, “The Strategy of Conflict,” Harvard University Press. 2. Schelling, Thomas C., 1966, “Arms and Influence,” Yale University Press. 3. George, Peter, 1958, “Red Alert,” Ace. 4. Kahn, Herman, 1960, “On Thermonuclear War,” Princeton University Press. 5. “The Making of Dr. Strangelove,” Columbia Pictures. 6. Schelling, Thomas C., 1978, “Micromotives and Macrobehavior,” W. W. Norton, pp.147155. Earlier version: “Models of Segregation,” American Economic Review, Vol. 59, No. 2, May 1969. 7. The New York Times, Dec. 13, 2016 (http://www. nytimes.com/2016/12/13/business/economy/ thomas-schelling-dead-nobel-laureate.html) 8. The Washington Post, Dec. 13, 2016 (https:// www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/ wp/2016/12/13/thomas-schelling-has-died-hisideas-shaped-the-cold-war-and-the-world/) 9. The Economist, Dec. 24, 2016 (http://www. economist.com/node/21712133/print).

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In Memoriam

C. Bernard Barfoot (1933-2016) C. Bernard “Bernie” Barfoot of Alexandria, Va., a mathematician and research department director at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), died Dec. 22, 2016, at the age of 83. Mr. Barfoot was a member of the Operations Research Society of America (a forerunner of INFORMS), serving as associate editor of its technical journal, Operations Research, and session chairman at several national and international conferences on operations research. He authored numerous CNA research reports, as well as technical papers published in Operations Research, Naval Logistics Research Quarterly and in the proceedings of technical conferences. He was a recognized authority on stochastic duel models of combat. Mr. Barfoot graduated from Tulane University in 1955 with a bachelor of science in mathematics and was commissioned in the U.S. Navy on the same day. He served as a division officer aboard an aircraft carrier and later as an officer instructor in the Mathematics Department of the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis. After returning to civilian life in 1959, Mr. Barfoot graduated from the University of Alabama with a master of arts in math-

ematics and was awarded membership in Pi Mu Epsilon, the national mathematics honor society. For 33 years – from 1966 until his retirement in 1999 – Mr. Barfoot worked for the CNA, the Navy’s non-profit think tank in Alexandria. He directed a wide variety of projects for Navy and Marine Corps headquarters in Washington, D.C., including amphibious warfare requirements, economic analyses of aircraft and ships, fleet concepts of operations, Army and Marine Corps power projection capabilities, and evaluation of war plans. Through CNA’s program to provide continuous onsite analytic support, he served on Marine and Navy command staffs in Honolulu; Yokosuka, Japan; and London. He also led a team of CNA analysts on a short-term assignment at the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force in Danang, Vietnam. Mr. Barfoot received a CNA fellowship for a year of full-time graduate study at George Washington University, earning a master of science in operations research. His thesis, “Markov Duels,” was published in a peer-reviewed journal and received an award from the Washington Operations Research Council.

Mr. Barfoot was a member of Christ the Saviour Anglican Church, Mount Vernon, serving as a vestryman, senior warden and choir member. His hobbies included photography, genealogy, writing letters to the editor and musical performance. For many years he was a clarinetist in various bands. A native of Gadsden, Ala., Mr. Barfoot is survived by his wife of 61 years, Martha Oliver Barfoot of Alexandria, his daughter, the Reverend Canon Dr. Alison L. Barfoot of Kampala, Uganda, and a sister and niece in Oregon. ORMS

In Memoriam

Philip S. Wolfe Philip S. Wolfe, a mathematician and one of the founders of convex optimization theory and mathematical programming, passed away on Dec. 29, 2016. He was 89. Born in California in 1927, Dr. Wolfe earned his Ph.D. in mathematics at the University of California, Berkeley and went on to become one of the founding fathers of the field of optimization, the mathematics that underlies modern operations research. He joined Rand in 1957, where he worked with George Dantzig on the Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition method. Dr.

(1927-2016)

Wolfe spent the majority of his career at IBM’s Thomas J. Watson Research Center, which he first joined in 1965. In 1992, Dr. Wolfe received the John von Neumann Theory Prize (jointly with Alan Hoffman) from ORSA, a forerunner of INFORMS. Dr. Wolfe is survived by his wife, Hallie Flanagan Wolfe, his daughter Sarah of Whitehorse, Canada, and grandchildren Duncan and Sidney. A more substantial account of Dr. Wolfe’s many accomplishments will appear in a future issue of OR/MS Today. ORMS February 2017

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new s 2016 INFORMS Subdivision Awards The following awards were presented by the respective INFORMS societies, sections, interest groups, forums, fora, etc., at the 2016 INFORMS Annual Meeting in Nashville, Tenn., in November. APPLIED PROBABILITY Erlang Prize Recipient: Josh Reed

Recognition:

Outstanding contributions to applied probability by a young applied probabilist

AVIATION APPLICATIONS Dissertation Prize

First-place recipients: Javad Nasiry, Xiaoyang Long and Yaozhong Wu Recognized work:

“A Behavioral Study on Abandonment Decisions in Multi-Stage Projects” Second place recipients: Jingqi Wang and Yong-Pin Zhou Recognized work:

“Impact of Queue Configuration on Service Time: Evidence from a Supermarket” Honorable mention: Evgeny Kagan, Stephen Leider and William Lovejoy Recognized work:

“Ideation-Execution Transition in Product Development”

COMPUTING INFORMS Computing Society Prize

Special recognition recipients: Iain Dunning, Swati Gupta and John Silberholz, MIT Recognized work:

“What Works Best When? A Systematic Evaluation of Heuristics for Max-Cut and QUBO”

CPMS: PRACTICE SECTION OF INFORMS Daniel H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Recipients: Mikael Rönnqvist, Université Laval, Canada; Gert Andersson, Gunnar Svenson and Patrik Flisberg, Forestry Research Institute of Sweden; and Lars-Erik Jönsson, SDC, Sundsvall, Sweden Recognized work:

“Calibrated Route Finder - Social, Safe, Environmental and Cost-Effective Truck Routing”

DATA MINING

Alexandre Jacquillat, Virginie Lurkin and Senay Solak (l-r).

SAS Data Mining Best Paper Award

First-place recipient: Virginie Lurkin, University of Liege

First-place recipient: Tuo Zhao, Johns Hopkins University

Recognized work:

“Modeling in Air Transportation: Cargo Loading and Itinerary Choice” Honorable mention: James Jones, University of Maryland Recognized work:

“Optimization Models for Speed Control in Air Traffic Management”

Best Student Presentation

Recognized work:

Jeff Linderoth, Joey Huchette, Miles Lubin and Matt Saltzmann (l-r).

Recipients: Iain Dunning, Joey Huchette and Miles Lubin Recognition:

Best English language paper or group of related papers dealing with the operations research/computer science interface

ICS Student Paper Award

“Calibrated Multivariate Regression with Application to Neural Semantic Basis Discovery” First-place recipient: Paul Brooks, Virginia Commonwealth University Recognized work:

“Robust PCA via L1-Norm Line Fitting” First-place recipient: Chitta Ranjan, Georgia Institute of Technology Recognized work:

“Sequence Graph Transform (SGT): A Feature Extraction Function for Sequence Data Mining” First-place recipient: Xiaolei Fang, Georgia Institute of Technology Recognized work:

“Residual Useful Lifetime Prediction Using a Degradation Image Stream”

DECISION ANALYSIS

Lavanya Marla, Michael Wittman and Senay Solak (l-r).

Frank P. Ramsey Medal

First-place recipient: Michael Wittman, MIT Honorable mention: Reed Harder, Dartmouth

BEHAVIORAL OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Best Working Paper Award

Matt Saltzman, Georgina Hall, Anna Nagurney and Hande Benson (l-r).

First-place recipient: Georgina Hall, Princeton University Recognized work:

“DC Decomposition of Nonconvex Polynomials with Algebraic Techniques” Runner-up recipient: Terrence Mak, Australian National University Recognized work:

“Dynamic Compressor Optimization in Natural Gas Pipeline Systems” Runner-up recipient: Hadi Charkhgard, University of Newcastle Recognized work:

Steve Leider, Enno Siemsen, Xiaoyang Long and Javad Nasiry (l-r).

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“A Criterion Space Search Algorithm for Biobjective Mixed Integer Programming: The Triangle Splitting Method”

Vicki Bier (center) receives the Ramsey Medal.

Recipient: Vicki Bier, University of Wisconsin Recognition:

Distinguished contributions in decision analysis

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Student Paper Award

Best Publication Award in Energy Recipients: Ramtin Madani, Somayeh Sojoudi and Javad Lavaei Recognized work:

“Convex Relaxation for Optimal Power Flow Problem: Mesh Networks,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

Best Publication Award in Environment & Sustainability Qiushi Chen (center) receives the Student Paper Award.

First-place recipient: Qiushi Chen, Georgia Institute of Technology Recognized work:

“Optimal Liver Cancer Surveillance in Hepatitis C-Infected Population” Finalist: Venkata R. Prava Recognized work:

“Partition Dependence and Carryover Biases in Subjective Probability Assessment Surveys for Continuous Variables: Model-Based Estimation and Correction” Finalist: Sasa Zorc Recognized work:

“Be Patient Yet Firm: Offer Timing, Deadlines, and The Search for Alternatives”

Publication Award

Recipients: Weini Zhang, Gunhui Chung, Péguy Pierre-Louis, Güzin Bayraksan and Kevin Lansey Recognized work:

“Reclaimed water distribution network design under temporal and spatial growth and demand uncertainties,” Environmental Modeling & Software

Best Publication Award in Natural Resources Recipients: Julián A. Gallego Arrubla, Lewis Ntaimo and Curt Stripling

First-place recipients: Hamsa Bastani and Mohsen Bayati Recognized work:

“Online Decision-Making with High-Dimensional Covariates” Runner-up recipients: Anil Aswani, Zuo-Jun (Max) Shen and Auyon Saddiq Recognized work:

“Data-Driven Incentive Design in the Medicare Shared Savings Program” Finalists: Susan Feng Lu and Lauren Xiaoyuan Lu Recognized work:

“Do Mandatory Overtime Laws Improve Quality? Staffing Decisions and Operational Flexibility of Nursing Homes” Finalists: Turgay Ayer, Anthony Bonifonte, Can Zhang, Anne Spaulding and Jagpreet Chhatwal Recognized work:

“Prioritizing Hepatitis C Treatment in U.S. Prisons”

Seth Bonder Scholarship for Applied Operations Research in Health Services

Recognized work:

“Wildfire initial response planning using probabilistically constrained stochastic integer programming,” International Journal of Wildland Fire

ENRE Young Researcher First-place recipients: Daniel Huppmann and Sauleh Siddiqui Recognized work:

“An exact solution method for binary equilibrium problems with compensation and the power market uplift,” Mathematics

FINANCIAL SERVICES Amit Kothiyal (center) receives the Publication Award.

Best Student Research Paper

First-place recipients: Amit Kothiyal, Vitalie Spinu and Peter P. Wakker

Nunamaker-Chen Dissertation Award

Recognized work:

“The Wisdom of Select Crowds”

ENERGY, NATURAL RESOURCES AND THE ENVIRONMENT Student Paper Travel Award Recipient: Mehdi Behroozi

Recognized work:

INFORMATION SYSTEMS SOCIETY Recipients: H. Raghavendra Rao and Yong Tan

“Average Utility Maximization: A Preference Foundation” Finalists: Nikolaos Argyris, Alec Morton and José Rui Figueira

Recognized work:

Recipient: Alba C. Rojas-Cordova

Distinguished Fellow Award

Recognized work:

“CUT: A Multicriteria Approach for Concavifiable Preferences” Finalists: Albert E. Mannes, Jack B. Soll and Richard P. Larrick

Ed Kaplan, Alba Rojas-Cordova and Murat Kurt (l-r).

First-place recipient: Zhuoxin Allen Li Wendy Swenson Roth , Kai Yuan, Agostino Capponi, Likuan Qin, Andrea Minca, Rafael Mendoza and Yufei Yang (l-r).

First-place recipient: Shomesh Chaudhuri, MIT Second-place recipient: Likuan Qin, Northwestern University

HEALTH APPLICATIONS Pierskalla Best Paper Award

“Household-Level Economies of Scale in Transportation, Operations Research” Runner-up recipients: Álvaro Lorca

Recognized work:

“Disintermediation and Co-opetition in Platform Ecosystems and Modern Value Chains” Runner-up recipient: Dokyun Lee Recognized work:

“Three Essays on Big Data Consumer Analytics in E-commerce”

INFORMS ISS Early Career Award Recipients: Terrence W. August, Jianqing Chen and Prasanna (Sonny)Tambe

Recognized work:

“The Adaptive Robust Multi-Period Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow Problem, Working Paper” Finalist: Bhavani Shanker Uppari Recognized work:

“Business Models for Off-Grid Energy Access at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Working Paper”

William Pierskalla, John Birge, Baris Ata, Mohsen Bayati and Hamsa Bastani (l-r).

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new s INFORMS INFORMS Moving Spirit Awards

Recipients: Victor Wu, University of Michigan Student Chapter; Thiago Serra, Carnegie Mellon University Student Chapter; and Deepak Agrawal, Pennsylvania State University Student Chapter Recognition:

Outstanding student volunteers who have been “moving spirits” in their universities, student chapters and INFORMS

Student Chapter Annual Awards

First place recipient: Yunan Liu, North Carolina State University Recognized work:

“Staffing to Stabilize the Tail Probability of Delay in Service Systems with Time-Varying Demand” Second place recipient: Henry Lam, University of Michigan Recognized work:

“Recovering Best Statistical Guarantees via the Empirical Divergence-based Distributionally Robust Optimization”

LOCATION ANALYSIS

Esra Buyuktahtakin and Michael Johnson (l-r).

SOLA Dissertation Prize

Recipient: Esra Buyuktahtakin, Junior Faculty Interest Group Recognition:

Tremendous efforts in expanding available resources to JFIG by obtaining sponsorships from both her own university and other universities

Moving Spirit Award for Fora

Carnegie Mellon Student Chapter.

Fan Jia, Kien Trung Nguyen, Markus Sinnl and Sibel Alumur Alev (l-r).

First place recipient: Kien Trung Nguyen, Kaiserslautern University of Technology

Julie Ivy and Michael Johnson (l-r).

Recognized work:

Recipient: Julie S. Ivy, Minority Issues Forum Recognition:

Tremendous efforts in establishing the MIF Poster session, a highly successful event now in its fifth year. She selflessly contributes as a judge or reviewer whenever asked and helps to recruit new members and advocate for existing members. She is also now the chair of the committee for our newly established (2016) Early Career Award.

Judith Liebman Awards

Northwestern Student Chapter.

Recipients: (Summa Cum Laude): Carnegie Mellon University and Northwestern University; (Magna Cum Laude): Ohio State University, Purdue University, University of Michigan, University of Toronto, Virginia Tech; (Cum Laude): Columbia University, Lehigh University, Mississippi State University, Penn State University, Texas A&M, University of Florida, University of Massachusetts, University of South Florida, University of Texas at Austin, University of Texas at Dallas. Recognition:

Outstanding participation and performance during the year of 2015

“Inverse Location Theory with Ordered Median Function and Other Extensions” First place recipient: Markus Sinnl, University of Vienna Recognized work:

“Bi-Objective Network Design” Honorable mention: Fan Jia, University of Minnesota Recognized work:

“On Continuous Connected Facility Location Problems”

MINORITY ISSUES FORUM Early Career Award

INFORM-ED Case Competition Award Victor Wu (left) and INFORMS President Brian Denton.

First place recipient: Fredrik Odegaard, University of Western Ontario Recognized work:

“Risks and Rewards in Professional Tennis” Second place recipient: David Kopcso, Babson College Recognized work:

“Wine of Kings, King of Wines” Third place recipients: Vincent Slaugh, Carnegie Mellon University and Milind Dawande, University of Texas at Dallas

Julie Ivy and Sean Barnes (l-r).

Thaigo Serra (left) and INFORMS President Brian Denton.

JUNIOR FACULTY INTEREST GROUP JFIG Paper Competition Award First place recipient: Daniel Russo, Northwestern University Recognized work:

Deepak Agrawal (left) and INFORMS President Brian Denton.

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“Simple Bayesian Algorithms for Best Arm Identification”

Julie Ivy and Esra Buyuktahtakin (l-r).

Recipients: Sean Barnes and Esra Buyuktahtakin

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Poster Competition

Distinguished Service Award

MILITARY APPLICATIONS 2016 Koopman Prize

Poster competition finalists. Recipient: Alba Rojas-Cordova

Paper Competition

Serguei Netessine and Terry Taylor (l-r).

Recipient: Serguei Netessine

Distinguished Fellows Award Recipient: Christian Terwiesch

iFORM Best Paper Award Recipients: Jiri Chod and Jianer Zhou Recognized work:

“Resource Flexibility and Capital Structure” Belleh Fontem (center) receives Paper Competition award.

Nathaniel Bastian (left) accepts the Koopman Prize.

Recipients: Nathaniel Bastian, Pat McMurry, Lawrence V. Fulton, Paul M. Griffin, Shisheng Cui, Sharan Srinivas and Thor Hanson Recognized work:

“The AMEDD Uses Goal Programming to Optimize Workforce Planning Decisions”

Seth Bonder Scholarship for Applied Operations Research in Military Applications

Service Best Paper Award

Recipient: Belleh Fontem

MSOM Student Paper Competition

Soroush Saghafian and Terry Taylor (l-r).

Recipients: Soroush Saghafian, Wallace J. Hopp, Mark P. Van Oyen, Jeffrey S. Desmond and Steven L. Kronick Recognized work:

“Complexity-Augmented Triage: A Tool for Improving Patient Safety and Operational Efficiency” Tolga Tezcan, Hamsa Bastani, Michael Freeman and Terry Taylor (l-r).

Andrew Hall, Isaac Faber and Ed Kaplan (l-r).

Recipient: Isaac Faber

J. Steinhardt Prize

Journal Best Paper Award

First place recipient: Michael Freeman Recognized work:

“Economies of Scale and Scope in Hospitals” First place recipient: Hamsa Bastani Recognized work:

“Online Decision-Making with High-Dimensional Covariates” Finalist: Negin Golrezaei

Gerald Brown (right) receives the Steinhardt Prize.

Recipient: Gerald Brown

Recognized work:

“Real-time Optimization of Personalized Assortments” Finalist: Weiming Zhu

Terry Taylor, Srikanth Jagabathula and Vivek Farias (l-r).

“Buyer Intermediation in Supplier Finance” Finalist: Guihua Wang

Recipients: Vivek Farias, Srikanth Jagabathula and Devavrat Shah

Recognized work:

“Using Patient-Centric Quality Information to Unlock Hidden Health Care Capabilities” Finalist: Andrew E. Frazelle Recognized work:

“Strategic Open Routing in Service Networks”

Recognition:

Outstanding contributions to military operations research

Recognized work:

“A Nonparametric Approach to Modeling Choice with Limited Data”

Young Scholar Prize Recipient: Achal Bassamboo, Northwestern University

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new s OPTIMIZATION Student Paper Prize

Farkas Prize of the Optimization Society

PUBLIC SECTOR O.R. Best Paper Competition

Priyank Arora (center) accepts best paper award. Sven Leyffer and Ariela Sofer (l-r). Gonzalo Muñoz and Jim Luedtke (l-r).

Recipient: Gonzalo Muñoz

Recipient: Sven Leyffer

Recognition:

Outstanding contributions to the field of optimization

Recognized work:

“LP Formulations for Mixed-Integer Polynomial Optimization Problems” Honorable mention recipient: Hamza Fawzi Recognized work:

ORGANIZATION SCIENCE Best Dissertation Proposal Competition

“Self-scaled bounds for atomic cone ranks: applications to nonnegative rank and cp-rank”

First place recipients: Priyank Arora and Ravi Subramanian Recognized work:

“Improving Societal Outcomes in the Organ Donation Value Chain” Second place recipients: Hsin-Tien Tsai, Pnina Feldman and Jun Li Recognized work:

“Welfare Implications of Congestion Pricing: Evidence from Sfpark” Third place recipients: Qiushi Chen and Jagpreet Chhatwal and Turgay Ayer Recognized work:

“Optimal liver cancer surveillance in hepatitis C-infected population”

Prize for Young Researchers

QUALITY, STATISTICS & RELIABILITY Best Refereed Paper Tristan Botelho (right) accepts dissertation prize.

Recipient: Tristan Botelho, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Recognized work:

Parikshit Shah, Venkat Chandrasekaran and Andrew Schaefer (l-r).

Recipients: Venkat Chandrasekaran and Parikshit Shah Recognized work:

“Relative Entropy Relaxations for Signomial Optimization”

Khachiyan Prize

“Essays on Evaluation Processes and Knowledge Sharing in a Competitive Context” Runner-up: Jeffrey Thomas, New York University Recognized work:

“Shaking Hands While Trading Punches: Exploring the Paradox of Rival Cooperation” Finalist: David Clough, INSEAD Recognized work:

“Coordination and Inter-Organizational Networks in Innovation Ecosystems” Finalist: Priyanka Dwivedi, Pennsylvania State University Recognized work:

Recognition:

Lifetime achievements in the field of optimization

Recognized work:

“Statistical Modeling for Spatio-Temporal Degradation Data”

First place recipient: Xianchen Xian

“Understanding Complex Hierarchy Dynamics: Dominant Group Members’ Responses to InterSubordinate Group Relations” Finalist: Michael Mauskapf, Northwestern University

“A Nonparametric Adaptive Sampling Strategy for On-line Monitoring of Big Data Streams” First place recipient: Chen Zhang

Recognized work:

Recipient: Aharon Ben-Tal

Recipients: Xiao Liu, Kyongmin Yeo and Jayant Kalagnanam

“She Who Keeps A Cool Head Prevails! Examining How Emotions Allow (Female) CEOs To Be Effective In Executive Roles” Finalist: Sora Jun, Stanford University Recognized work:

Aharon Ben-Tal and Tamás Terlaky (l-r).

Hui Yang, Xiao Liu and Russell Barton (l-r).

“Structure, Innovation, and Performance in Cultural Markets” Finalist: Yongzhi Wang, University of Southern California

Best Student Poster Recognized work:

Recognized work:

“Multichannel Profile Monitoring based on Sparse Multichannel Functional Principle Component Analysis”

Recognized work:

“Competing Across and Within Platforms: Antecedents and Consequences of Market Entries by Mobile App Developers” Finalist: Sarah Wittman, INSEAD Recognized work:

“Identity ‘Stickiness’: When, Why and with What Effects People Keep Identities from Past Work Roles”

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Best Student Paper

Third place recipient: Chao Lu Recognized work:

“Balancing Performance of Timetable and Expected Schedule Robustness: An Improved Space-Time Path Searching Algorithm”

TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION MANAGEMENT AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP Distinguished Speaker Award

REVENUE MANAGEMENT AND PRICING Hui Yang, Simon Mak and Park Chiwoo.

First place recipient: Simon Mak Recognized work:

“Support Point”

Distinguished Service Award

Section Award Recipients: Arnoud V. den Boer and Bert Zwart Recognized work:

“Simultaneously Learning and Optimizing Using Controlled Variance Pricing.” “Mean Square Convergence Rates for Maximum Quasi-Likelihood Estimators.” “Dynamic Pricing and Learning with Finite Inventories”

Dissertation Award Recipient: Maxime Cohen

Recognized work:

“Pricing for Retail, Social Networks and Green Technologies” Kaibo Wang, Russell Barton and Hui Yang (l-r).

Recipient: Russell Barton

RAILROAD APPLICATIONS Railway Applications Distinguished Member Award

SERVICE SCIENCE Best Article Award First place recipient: Scott E. Sampson Recognized work:

“Value Paradoxes and the Time Value of Value” Honorable mention: Stan N. Finkelstein, Richard C. Larson, Karima Nigmatulina and Anna Teytelman Recognized work:

“Engineering Effective Responses to Influenza Outbreaks” Finalists: Mark M. Davis, Joy Field and and Euthemia Stavrulaki Recognized work:

Xuesong Zhou and Dharma Acharya (l-r). Recipient: Dharma Acharya

Railway Applications Student Paper Award

“Using Digital Service Inventories to Create Customer Value” Finalists: Uday S. Karmarkar and Guillaume Roels

Distinguished speaker Moren Levesque.

Recipient: Moren Levesque, York University

Best Dissertation Award First place recipient: Ersin Korpeoglu, Carnegie Mellon University Recognized work:

“Innovation and Crowdsourcing Contests” Second place recipient: Frank Nagle, Harvard Business School Recognized work:

“The Digital Commons: Tragedy or Opportunity? The Effect of Crowdsourced Digital Goods on Innovation and Economic Growth” Finalist: Joost Rietveld, City University, London Recognized work:

“Value Creation from Complements in Platform Markets: Studies on the Video Game Industry” Finalist: Haibo Liu, INSEAD Recognized work:

“Essays on Extreme Performance” Finalist: Daniel Armanios, Stanford University Recognized work:

“What is the Role of the State in Entrepreneurship and Venture Performance?”

Best Paper Award

Recognized work:

“An Analytical Framework for Value Co-Production in Services”

Best Cluster Paper Award Recipients: Lennart Baardman, Maxime Cohen, Georgia Perakis, Kiran Panchamgam and Segev Danny Recognized work:

“Scheduling Promotion Vehicles to Boost Profits”

IBM Best Student Paper Award Steven Harrod and Joris Wagenaar (l-r).

First place recipient: Joris Wagenaar Recognized work:

“Rolling Stock Rescheduling in Passenger Railway Transportation Using Dead-Heading Trips and Adjusted Passenger Demand” Second place recipient: Fabrizio Cerreto Recognized work:

“A Polynomial Function of Primary Delays and Cumulative Delays on Railway Lines”

Carliss Baldwin (left) receives Best Paper Award.

First place recipient: Hamsa Bastani

First place recipients: Carliss Baldwin and Eric von Hippel

“Online Decision-making with High-dimensional Covariates” Second place: Leela Nageswaran

“Modeling a paradigm shift: From producer innovation to user and open collaborative innovation” Second-place recipients: Kevin Boudreau, Nicola Lacetera, and Karim Lakhani

Recognized work:

“Queues with Redundancy: Is Waiting in Multiple Lines Fair?” Third place: Ashish Kabra

Recognized work:

“Incentives and problem uncertainty in innovation contests: an empirical analysis”

Recognized work:

“Bike-share Systems: Accessibility and Availability”

February 2017

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new s SOCIAL MEDIA Best Student Paper Competition

Outstanding Paper in Air Transportation

Doctoral Colloquium Student Sponsorship Award

Recipient: Christopher E. Marks, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Second place recipient: Matthias Bogaert, Ghent University Finalists: Rui Zhang, University of Colorado Boulder Rostyslav Korolov, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & LOGISTICS Best Paper Award

Heng Chen, Maciek Nowak and Senay Solak (l-r).

Nasim Nezamoddini (left) receives award.

Recipients: Heng Chen and Senay Solak

Recipient: Nasim Nezamoddini

Recognized work:

“Lower Cost Arrivals for Airlines: Optimal Policies for Managing Runway Operations under Optimized Profile Descent”

Monsanto Award

Outstanding Paper in Urban Transportation Planning and Modeling

Marielle Christiansen, Teodor Crainic, Thibault Vidal and Maciek Nowak (l-r).

Recipients: Thibaut Vidal, Teodor Gabriel Crainic, Michel Gendreau and Christian Prins

Yulia Vorotyntseva (left) and Monirehalsadat Mahmoudi (center) receive Monsanto Award.

Recipients: Monirehalsadat Mahmoudi and Yulia Vorotyntseva

Recognized work:

“A unified solution framework for multi-attribute vehicle routing problems”

Purpose:

Conference travel expenses

Dissertation Prize

Maciek Nowak, Christian Vad Karsten and Larry Snyder (l-r). Recipient: Anh Tien Mai, University of Montreal Recognized work:

“Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-Scale Discrete Choice Models”

Childcare Award

Maciek Nowak and Carolina Osorio (l-r).

Recipients: Carolina Osorio and Michel Bierlaire Recognized work:

“A Simulation-Based Optimization Framework for Urban Transportation Problems”

Hoda Atef Yekta (left), Ying Cao (second from left) and Michelle Alvarado (far right) received Childcare Awards.

Recipients: Michelle Alvarado, Ying Cao and Hoda Atef Yekta Purpose:

Funding for childcare for conference attendees

WOMEN IN ORMS Advancement of Women in OR/MS

Larry Snyder, Anh Tien Mai and Maciek Nowak. Recipient: Christian Vad Karsten, Technical University of Denmark Recognized work:

“Competitive Liner Shipping Network Design”

60 | ORMS Today

February 2017

Karen Smilowitz and Margaret Brandeau (l-r).

Recipient: Karen Smilowitz

ormstoday.informs.org

People Ed Kaplan, past president of INFORMS, received a personal letter of gratitude from the former Minister of Health of Israel in recognition of Kaplan’s work on a committee that evaluated Israel’s blood donation policy. Based on the Ed Kaplan committee’s report, the Israeli Ministry of Health recently agreed to reverse a blood donation policy and will now allow some Ethiopian immigrants, homosexuals and elderly people to donate blood. According to the Jerusalem Post, the change is a result of “new local and foreign epidemiological data and the improvement in medical technologies and risk assessment.” In his role on the committee, Kaplan developed models for the probability that infectious blood (HIV, HBV) could enter the blood supply for alternative blood exclusion/ deferral policy proposals under different scenarios. This updated Kaplan’s published research from as far back as 1998 by taking into account improvements in the characteristics of tests used to detect HIV along with the best epidemiological estimates of HIV infection among would-be donors in Israel, all of which helped to buttress the conclusions and recommendations of the committee. In her letter to Kaplan, former Health Minister Yael German wrote, “Your effort and dedication contributed to public health in Israel, as well as the fight against prejudice and racism, and will now enable healthy Israelis of Ethiopian origin as well as MSM to donate blood.” Kathy Stecke, Ashbel Smith Professor of Operations Management at the University of Texas at Dallas and a longtime, active member of INFORMS, will receive Purdue University ’s Outstanding Industrial Kathy Stecke Engineering Award in April. The award recognizes IE alumni who have “demonstrated exemplary

Meetings INFORMS Annual & International Meetings

achievements and leadership throughout their career.” In 2014, Stecke received Purdue’s Distinguished Woman Scholar Award. She is the first person to receive both alumni awards. In 2015, Stecke received the Education for Service Award from her undergraduate school, Boston State College (now the University of Massachusetts Boston). She earned two master’s degrees (1974 and 1977) and Ph.D. (1981) in industrial engineering at Purdue. An internationally recognized scholar in flexible manufacturing and supply chain issues, Stecke’s involvement with INFORMS dates back to her days as a grad student. Since then, she has chaired international and national conferences and held numerous other volunteer posts for the organization, including serving two terms on its board of directors. Stecke received the Kimball Medal from INFORMS in 2008 in recognition of her service to the profession and the organization, and in 2009 she was named an INFORMS Fellow.

April 2-4, 2017 INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics & Operations Research

Matt Carr, vice president of business analytics with the Regal Entertainment Group and a member of INFORMS, was selected for the Knoxville Sentinel’s top “40 Under 40” for his role in helping Regal grow from a company Matt Carr without a formalized analytics group to one that makes decisions and pursues strategies based on actionable data analysis. Regal Entertainment Group operates more than 560 movie theaters. “My team and I are responsible for analyzing data for different departments within Regal,” Carr says. “Our analysis is used by the various departments as they make decisions.” Regal President and Chief Operating Officer Greg Dunn, who hired Carr, 36, as Regal’s first financial analyst in 2009, wrote that Carr is, “integral in providing input to operational decisions … ensuring that Regal utilizes available data to operate its theaters as efficiently as possible.” ORMS

June 8-10, 2017 INFORMS Marketing Science Conference

Caesars Palace, Las Vegas Chair: Maher Lahmar, IBM http://meetings2.informs.org/wordpress/analytics2017/

July 26-28, 2017 INFORMS 2017 Healthcare Conference

De Doelen International Congress Centre Rotterdam, the Netherlands Chair: Joris van de Klundert, Erasmus University Rotterdam http://meetings2.informs.org/wordpress/healthcare2017/

Oct. 22-25, 2017 INFORMS Annual Meeting

George R. Brown Convention Center & Hilton Americas, Houston Chair: William Klimack, Chevron http://meetings2.informs.org/wordpress/houston2017/

2018

April 15-17, 2018 INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics & Operations Research Marriott Waterfront Hotel, Baltimore

Nov. 4-7, 2018 INFORMS Annual Meeting

Phoenix Convention Center & Sheraton Phoenix Hotel, Phoenix Chair: Young-Jun Son, University of Arizona

INFORMS Community Meetings University of Southern California, Los Angeles Chair: Gerry Tellis https://marketingscience2017.usc.edu

June 26-27, 2017 INFORMS Advances in Decision Analysis

The University of Texas at Austin Austin, Texas Chair: Casey Lichtendahl, University of Virginia https://www.informs.org/Community/DAS/ADA-2017Conference

June 29-30, 2017 INFORMS Revenue Management & Pricing Section Conference

Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica (CWI) Amsterdam Chair: Arnoud Den Boer https://www.informs.org/Community/revenue-mgt/Conferences

July 10-12, 2017 INFORMS 19th Applied Probability Conference Northwestern University Evanston, Ill.

July 27-29, 2017 INFORMS Transportation Science and Logistics Conference

Loyola University Chicago Chicago Chair: Pitu Mirchandani, Arizona State University https://www.informs.org/Community/TSL/TSL-Conference

Go to www.informs.org/Conf for a searchable INFORMS Conference Calendar.

February 2017

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Industry News

Entries sought for AIMMS/MOPTA Optimization Competition A I M M S re c e n t l y a n n o u n c e d the ninth annual AIMMS/MOPTA Optimization Competition. Finalists are expected to attend and present their results at the 2017 MOPTA (modeling and optimization theory and applications) Conference to be held Aug. 16-18, 2017, at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pa. This year’s challenge involves a simplified model of production and delivery of radio-pharmaceuticals (RP).The goal is to minimize the production and distribution cost of RP. Solutions are due by June 15. Teams of at most three students can participate. The team leader must be a graduate student, though the other members of the team can be advanced undergraduate students. Each member of the team must be registered as a fulltime student at a recognized educational institution during the spring term of the 2016-2017 academic year. Students with any background are eligible. Collaboration between students from different departments is strongly encouraged. Each team must declare a team advisor with which the team may consult about the problem and their solution. As the conference is international, so is the competition. Teams from all over the world can participate, as long as at least one team member can come to the conference, should the team make it to the final round. The official language of the competition is English. After your team has registered, you will receive license files and download p a t h s f o r A I M M S s o f t wa re. Fo r questions about the competition, contact Martin Takac (takac@lehigh.edu). For questions about the AIMMS software, contact suppor t@aimms.com. For more information, visit coral.ie.lehigh. edu/~mopta/competition Southwest Airlines wins FICO Decisions Award Analytics software fir m FICO announced that Southwest Airlines has been awarded the 2016 FICO Decisions Award in the Decision Management Innovation categor y for its Baker 62 | ORMS Today

February 2017

Airline Operations Recovery Optimizer tool. The Baker, as it is referred to by Southwest Airlines, is the airline industry’s first real-time, integrated recovery solver that generates solutions to operational disruptions such as maintenance problems and weather events, while minimizing the impact to passengers and flight and ground crews. Since its implementation in November 2015, Baker has yielded significant cost savings by demonstrating significant improvement in key metrics such as on-time performance (OTP), customers delayed more than two hours, and mishandled luggage. On days with irregular operations in which more than 2 percent of flights were cancelled, OTP was 10 percent to15 percent higher than similar events in the past – equating to more than 2 percent increase in OTP since the tool was launched. The Baker utilizes several algorithms, advanced in-memory cache technology and hundreds of carefully calibrated p a r a m e t e r s t o a c h i eve re a l - t i m e performance and high-quality, integrated decision-making. U.S. Army enlists IBM for $62 million cloud deal IBM announced that the U.S. Army has signed a five-year, multi-million-dollar contract with IBM to build, manage and operate a cloud solution for greater IT flexibility, efficiency and performance. Designed for the Army’s Redstone Arsenal near Huntsville, Ala., the solution is part of the Ar my Pr ivate Cloud Enterprise (APCE) program, a one-year task order with four additional one-year options under the Army Private Cloud 2 (APC2) contract. If the Army exercises all options, the contract would be worth approximately $62 million over the five years. In addition to building the infrastructure, IBM will provide the Army with Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) services, enabling it to provision computing power on an as-needed basis for the most efficient and cost-effective IT. The Army also will begin migrating applications to the private cloud, moving

up to 35 applications to the private cloud in the first year. “With this project, we’re beginning to bring the IT infrastructure of the U.S. Army into the 21st century,” said Lt. Gen. Robert Ferrell, U.S. Army CIO. “Cloud computing is a game-changing architecture that provides improved performance with high efficiency, all in a secure environment.” EY program: optimized workforces for digital environment EY announced a new service offering a holistic program that helps companies develop workforces optimized for the new, highly digital work environment. Future Work Now offers business leaders configurable tools and processes to assist organizations in diagnosing, assessing and leading transformation and change to activate and inspire individuals, teams and organizations for success in tomorrow’s marketplace. “Effective leadership in this technologydriven era of workforce and workplace change will require a complete rethinking of how people, culture and organizational strategies are managed,” said George Brooks, EY Americas People Advisory Services Leader. “More than ever, employees want to find purpose and human connection at work. At the same time, we’re seeing a continued shift to a gig economy and virtual workforce. “Digital innovation and technology, like bots and artificial intelligence, are shifting the workplace dynamic – companies need to augment workers with automation to leverage the best of what humans and technology bring to the workplace,” Brooks continued. “At the same time, businesses must work aggressively to adapt to keep their people and organizations engaged and inspired to do their best work in an increasingly competitive talent market.” Future Work Now offers business leaders a clear road map to organizational transformation. The seven interconnected levers of the Future Work Now framework help organizations transition to a more comprehensive talent management framework tailored to re-shape how they attract the right talent. ORMS ormstoday.informs.org

CLASSIFIEDS

SPECIAL ADVERTISING SECTION | View Classifieds Online at: http://www.orms-today.org

University of PittsbUrgh S wa n S o n S c h o o l o f E n g i n E E r i n g

FACULTY POSITIONS IN INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH

TENURE TRACK OR TENURED POSITION IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH Created from a high-profile merger between three leading universities in Finland – the Helsinki School of Economics, Helsinki University of Technology and the University of Art and Design Helsinki – Aalto University opens up new possibilities for strong multidisciplinary education and research. Aalto University has 20 000 students and 390 professors. It is located in Helsinki which has been consistently ranked as one of world’s most livable cities (see: www.aalto.fi/en/about/careers/international_staff/).

The Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Pittsburgh invites applications for two open tenure-track faculty positions at any rank.

The Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis (www.mathsys.aalto.fi/en) invites applications from outstanding candidates for an assistant or associate professor position in operations research. The main areas of the Department are systems and operations research; analysis; discrete mathematics; numerical analysis and mechanics; and stochastics and statistics.

The Department of Industrial Engineering is home to 20 full-time faculty members with an outstanding reputation in a wide variety of research areas. The department maintains vibrant programs at the undergraduate, masters and doctoral levels; offers excellent laboratory facilities; and benefits from many contacts with regional and national corporations. Additional information about the department can be found at engineering.pitt.edu/industrial. We are seeking candidates in all areas of industrial engineering and operations research. Applicants must have a strong methodological background and an interest in advancing cutting-edge, interdisciplinary research. For junior candidates, our primary search criterion is research potential. Senior candidates must have established an outstanding research record commensurate with rank. All candidates should have evidence of, or potential for, teaching excellence. Applicants should e-mail a curriculum vitae, representative publications, and a list of at least three professional references to facultysearch2017@ie.pitt.edu. Applications will be reviewed until the positions are filled. The University of Pittsburgh is an affirmative action, equal opportunity employer. Candidates from underrepresented groups are particularly encouraged to apply.

Applications are welcome from all areas of operations research, including but not limited to optimization/mathematical programming (theory, numerical algorithms and applications), and simulation. The deadline for applications is 19 February 2017. A doctoral degree in a relevant field is expected. The candidates will be evaluated based on their research, teaching, and activities in the scientific community. The successful candidate will produce and supervise excellent scientific research, collaborate internationally, and provide relevant teaching and service to the Aalto University community. Aalto University offers competitive salaries. For more information, please contact Professor Juha Kinnunen (juha.k.kinnunen@aalto.fi) or Professor Ahti Salo (ahti.salo@aalto.fi, sal.aalto.fi/ahti/) about the activities of the Department in systems and operations research. For a full position description and application procedures, see www.aalto.fi/en/about/careers/jobs/view/1140/

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February 2017

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ORacle

Doug Samuelson

samuelsondoug@yahoo.com

Virtuous vices The OR/MS analyst had decided to branch out from his usual professional activities and attend a seminar on religion and ethics. Of course there were a priest, a minister and a rabbi, but also a Muslim imam, a judge and a professor of philosophy. And, of course, a lively discussion followed everyone into the adjoining room where some light refreshments were offered. The analyst found himself near the rabbi and struck up a conversation. And in due course, the analyst asked, “What did you mean when you said evil impulses can lead to good deeds? ” The rabbi smiled: “It’s an old Jewish teaching. Both the good and evil impulses – or the unselfish and selfish impulses, to put it maybe a bit more accurately – are of divine origin,” he said. “Without the selfish impulse, the sages tell us, a man would not take a wife or build a house. And the sages also tell us not to give so much to charity that you become poor and end up needing charity. Balancing the selfish and unselfish impulses is what we’re supposed to do, not all-out pursuit of virtue.” “This seems weird to me,” the analyst frowned. “It seems impossible to be all virtuous, but if you could do it, how would it be bad?” Then another thought struck him. “Oh, wait!” the analyst exclaimed. “I think maybe I see it. I worked for the federal government some years ago, auditing the major oil companies for violations of price controls, and this agency had really strict ethics rules. If you had ever worked for an oil company and stayed in touch with anyone there, you were considered to have a conflict of interest and couldn’t work for this agency. So when we needed to know how an oil company might handle a situation we were thinking about, we had nobody on staff who could tell us! I see now that what we had was too much virtue – trying too hard to be 64 | ORMS Today

February 2017

pure kept us from being effective in the good cause!” “That’s a good example,” the rabbi agreed. “I might use that myself in the future.Would you mind?” “Of course that’s OK,” the analyst said. “But I’m still not sure about how vices can be good.” The rabbi elaborated, “Any selfish impulse can be just what’s needed in certain circumstances – in moderation. For instance, lust is selfish, but without it it’s hard to have and sustain a marriage and you most likely won’t have children, who are essential to sustaining civilization. The all-out pursuit of power is bad, but you need some power to accomplish anything. In politics and business, you have to thwart someone else’s advancement and achievement in order to reach your own goals. Even the kindest, more caring leaders sometimes have to do nasty, self-serving things to retain the power to do good. “And not just to retain power,” the rabbi went on. “Remember how the congress, a few years ago, abolished ‘earmarks,’ money designated for pet projects in representatives’ districts, to cut down on ‘pork barrel’ spending? The people who pushed for that thought it would make government more honest. But earmarks were the currency in which deals could be made. That’s one of the reasons congress has so much more trouble now reaching any kind of consensus to do anything. Hardly looks like an improvement, does it?” “I think I’m catching on,” the analyst affirmed. “I suppose there’s something like this at the individual professional level, too?” “Have you ever gotten stuck writing something, or gotten stage fright when you needed to give a speech?” the rabbi prompted. “Yes!” the analyst nodded vigorously. “Lots of times! I’d love to know what to do about that!”

“Well, there’s a sure cure for writer’s block and stage fright. Did you know that?” the rabbi continued. “Tell me!” the analyst responded eagerly. “Arrogance, just simple arrogance,” the rabbi told him. “Arrogance is a vice, of course, but this is where it’s a virtue. If you can convince yourself that you know something the world just has to hear or read, and they’ll be delighted to receive your wisdom, then the words will flow pretty easily. And if you’ve maintained a proper balance between that arrogance and the modesty to check carefully what you’re about to say, then you end up doing good. See?” “But how do you maintain that balance?” the analyst demurred. “Too much arrogance would breed even more arrogance, and turn you bad – right?” “Right,” the rabbi concurred. “And the way to maintain the proper balance is to keep studying ethical questions – regularly, frequently – with a group of people who are also devoted to improving themselves and the balance in their lives. You belong to a professional association or two, don’t you?” “Yes,” the analyst acknowledged. “Well,” the rabbi suggested, “why don’t you organize some sessions at your conferences on the ethical questions in the practice of your profession? Such as how you recognize when a sponsor or client is subtly, or maybe not so subtly, leading you to the answer they’ve already decided they want? Or how you decide who should pay for something you’re doing, when you’re combining tasks? Or when data shouldn’t be used because they were obtained by coercion?” “Intriguing, but I’m pessimistic about attracting much of an audience,” the analyst shrugged. The rabbi eyed him skeptically, and then the analyst broke into a grin. “So maybe this is the time for a bit more of that arrogance,” the analyst added. “OK, I’ll try it! Would you like to be a speaker? And is there anyone else you can recommend?” ORMS Doug Samuelson (samuelsondoug@yahoo.com) is president and chief scientist of InfoLogix, Inc., in Annandale, Va.

ormstoday.informs.org

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