Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis

Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis

Lisa Harrison FA L L 2 0 1 4 Prof. Schrock URBS 515

List of Figures and Tables Figure 1 Baltimore-Towson Metropolitan Statistical Area Reference Map....................................2 Figure 2 Median Household Income, Baltimore MSA, 1990.........................................................7 Figure 3 Median Household Income, Baltimore MSA, 2008-2012...............................................8 Figure 4 Percent Ratio Income to Poverty Level: Under 1.00 (Doing Poorly), Baltimore MSA, 1990......................................................................................................9 Figure 5 Percent Ratio Income to Poverty Level: Under 1.00 (Doing Poorly), Baltimore MSA, 2008-2012.......................................................................................................................9 Figure 6 Percent White, non-Hispanic, Baltimore MSA, 1990....................................................11 Figure 7 Percent White, non-Hispanic, Baltimore MSA, 2008-2012...........................................11 Figure 8 Percent Black, non-Hispanic, Baltimore MSA, 1990.....................................................12 Figure 9 Percent Black, non-Hispanic, Baltimore MSA, 2008-2012............................................12

Table 1 Population Growth, U.S. and Baltimore MSA, 1980-2012..............................................3 Table 2 Median Household Income, U.S. and Baltimore MSA, 1980-2012 (in 2012 dollars)......3 Table 3 Poverty Rates, United States and Baltimore MSA, 1980-2012.......................................4 Table 4 Percentage of Population Race and Ethnicity Makeups, United States and Baltimore MSA, 1980-2012.............................................................................................5 Table 5 Share of Population in Census Tracts with Elevated or Concentrated Poverty Levels

by Race/Ethnicity, Baltimore MSA, 1990 and 2008-2012...............................................5 Table 6 Dissimilarity Index and Race Poverty Correlation Coefficient for Baltimore MSA, 1990 and 2008-2012.......................................................................................................6

Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis

BACKGROUND The Baltimore-Towson Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is the largest metropolitan area in the state of Maryland. The constituent counties of the MSA are Anne Arundel, Carroll, Harford, Howard, Queen Anne’s, as well as Baltimore County and Baltimore City, the largest independent city in the U.S. (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Baltimore-Towson Metropolitan Statistical Area Reference Map

Carroll

Howard

Harford Baltimore (county)

Baltimore (city)

Anne Arundel

Queen Anne’s

POPULATION TRENDS Over the last three decades, the population of the United States has grown more than 55% faster than the Baltimore MSA. However, while the United States saw a population growth of more than a third, Baltimore MSA saw its population grow by nearly a quarter and the Baltimore suburbs experienced population growth of close to a half, while Baltimore City lost nearly a quarter of its population. While Baltimore suburbs population growth has paced nearly a third faster than the United States from 1980-2012, Baltimore City has steadily lost population since the end of World War II. With 620,644 residents in 2012, the city has just two residents for every three it had at its peak in the 1950s (Table 1).

Baltimore City had its smallest decrease since the 1950s in the last decade. The population dropped by 4.7 percent, but it comes after an 11.5 percent plummet in the decade prior. The city’s small population decrease is in sharp contrast to the growth in the surrounding counties in the MSA, led by Howard County which gained 40,834 residents over the 2000-2012 period.

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Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis Table 1: Population Growth, U.S. and Baltimore MSA, 1980-2012

United States Total Population

Year

Baltimore MSA

% Change

Total Population

Baltimore City

Suburbs

% Change

Total Population

% Change

Total Population

% Change

–

786,775

–

1,412,756

–

1,646,158

+16.5%

1980

226,545,805

–

2,199,531

1990

248,709,873

+9.8%

2,382,172

+8.3%

736,014

-6.5%

2000

281,421,906

+13.2%

2,598,642

+9.1%

651,154

-11.5%

1,901,840

+15.5%

2008-2012

309,138,711

+9.8%

2,715,650

+4.5%

620,644

-4.7%

2,095,006

+10.2%

Change: 1980-2012

+82,592,906

+36.5%

+516,119

+23.5%

-166,131

-21.1%

+682,250

+48.3%

Source: US Census Bureau (1980-2000), and American Community Survey (2008-2012 5-year estimate).

It also contrasts to the upward trend of other Northeast cities. Washington, D.C., for example, has experienced explosive growth, adding 33,700 residents between 2000-2012, and another 13,000 residents in 2013 to reach a total population of 646,449, according to the Census Bureau. Washington D.C. now exceeds Baltimore’s population by more than 24,000. In 2000, Baltimore boasted nearly 80,000 more residents than Washington (651,154 versus 572,059).

INCOME TRENDS The Baltimore MSA has steadily outpaced the growth of United States median household income, by close to a third for the last three decades. Both the United States and Baltimore MSA have seen their median household incomes rise over the last thirty years, even with dollars held constant. In stark contrast, Baltimore City has seen little movement in median household income, with less than a one-percent gain ($289) in the last four decades. The median household income gap between Baltimore City and Baltimore MSA has consistently widened every decade. Current median household income in Baltimore City is just 59 percent of the entire Baltimore MSA (Table 2).

Table 2: Median Household Income, U.S. and Baltimore MSA, 1980-2012 (in 2012 dollars)

Median Household Income Year

Ratio Baltimore MSA/ Baltimore City/ United States Baltimore MSA

United States

Baltimore MSA

Baltimore City

1980

$49,766

$59,638

$40,514

1.20

0.68

1990

$52,001

$67,593

$44,521

1.30

0.66

2000

$54,077

$68,904

$41,451

1.27

0.60

2008 – 2012

$53,046

$68,616

$40,803

1.29

0.59

Change: 1980 – 2012

+$3,280

+$8,978

+$289

Source: US Census Bureau (1980-2000), and American Community Survey (2008-2012 5-year estimate).

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Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis Historically, Baltimore was a working-class industrial port town that focused on steel processing, shipping, and manufacturing. After the de-industrialization that occurred all around the “rust belt” of northeastern United States, Baltimore had to reinvent itself. The city now focuses on a service economy with a significant portion being low-skill, and therefore low-wage, jobs.

POVERTY TRENDS Over the last thirty years, poverty rates in the United States have held fairly steady with only minor fluctuations until the Great Recession in the late 2000s, when it spiked to nearly 15 percent of the population. Baltimore MSA poverty rates have consistently been lower than national rates – by just a small margin thirty years ago, but in recent years by nearly 30 percent.

Baltimore City has consistently suffered from staggeringly high poverty rates when compared to Baltimore MSA. Currently, poverty rates are close to 1990 levels, after an eight percent increase between 1990 and 2000 (21.9% versus 22.9%) (Table 3).

Table 3: Poverty Rates, United States and Baltimore MSA, 1980-2012

Percent of Population in Poverty Year

United States

Baltimore MSA

Baltimore City

Ratio Baltimore MSA/ Baltimore City/ United States Baltimore MSA

1980

12.4%

11.9%

22.9%

0.96

1.92

1990

13.1%

10.1%

21.9%

0.77

2.16

2000

12.4%

9.8%

22.9%

0.79

2.34

2008 – 2012

14.9%

10.6%

23.4%

0.71

2.21

Source: US Census Bureau (1980-2000), and American Community Survey (2008-2012 5-year estimate).

RACIAL/ETHNIC MINORITY TRENDS Over the last four decades, the United States has seen a steady decline in its white population and a steady increase in its African-American and Hispanic populations. Both Baltimore MSA and Baltimore City have mirrored these national trends, except for a small decline in Baltimore City’s African-American population (Table 4).

Baltimore City was much less white in 1980 than the United States as a whole, and since it has become markedly less white. As of 2012, 63.7% of the population of the United States was white, whereas only 28% of the population of Baltimore City was white. Baltimore City has also seen a large increase in its black population and an increases in its Hispanic population that closely match that of the Baltimore MSA (Table 4).

The suburbs of Baltimore where less white in 1980 than the nation as a whole, with 72.3% of residents being white compared to 79.6%. The gap size remained approximately the same but was reversed by 2012, with the suburbs of Baltimore at 69.4% white versus 63.7% for the nation. The suburbs of Baltimore have seen a significant in their Hispanic population, similar to all the other areas analyzed. Their African-American population, however, has seen a sharp

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Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis 33 percent decrease in the last 12 years, following twenty years of stable population (Table 4).

Further analysis showed Harford and Howard counties had the largest decline in AfricanAmerican population between 2000 and 2012, at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively, for a combined total of 25,363 residents.

Table 4: Percentage of Population Race and Ethnicity Makeups, United States and Baltimore MSA, 1980-2012 United States White*

AfricanAmerican*

1980

79.6%

1990

Baltimore MSA Hispanic

White*

AfricanAmerican*

11.5%

6.5%

72.3%

25.3%

1.0%

75.6%

11.8%

9.0%

71.0%

25.7%

1.3%

2000

69.1%

12.1%

12.6%

66.4%

27.1%

2.0%

2008 – 2012

63.7%

12.5%

16.4%

60.0%

28.4%

4.6%

Year

Baltimore City White*

AfricanAmerican*

1980

43.4%

1990

Hispanic

Suburbs Hispanic

White*

AfricanAmerican*

54.4%

1.0%

72.3%

25.3%

1.0%

38.6%

58.9%

1.0%

71.0%

25.7%

1.3%

2000

31.6%

64.3%

1.7%

66.4%

27.1%

2.0%

2008-2012

28.0%

63.2%

4.1%

69.4%

18.1%

4.7%

Year

Hispanic

* Non-Hispanic Source: US Census Bureau (1980-2000), and American Community Survey (2008-2012 5-year estimate).

DISTRIBUTION OF POVERTY AND SEGREGATION There is a strong correlation between race and poverty in the Baltimore MSA and this is made evident when analyzing the percentage of racial and ethnic minorities living in elevated and concentrated poverty tracts, as well as by looking at the correlation coefficients between race and poverty.

Baltimore MSA has seen a 59 percent decrease in the number of concentrated poverty tracts as a percentage of the MSA for the twenty years studied, from 4.1 percent to 1.7 percent, respectively (Table 5). The African-American community has consistently ranked the highest share of population in both elevated and concentrated poverty in census tracts throughout Table 5: Share of Population in Census Tracts with Elevated or Concentrated Poverty Levels by Race/Ethnicity, Baltimore MSA, 1990 and 2008-2012 Elevated Poverty Tracts (>=20%) % of MSA

White*

AfricanAmerican* Hispanic

1990

13.8%

21.3%

76.2%

2008-2012

14.8%

24.8%

65.6%

Concentrated Poverty Tracts (>=40%) Other Races*

% of MSA

White*

AfricanAmerican* Hispanic

Other Races*

1.0%

1.5%

4.1%

9.6%

88.8%

0.7%

0.9%

4.6%

5.0%

1.7%

9.0%

84.7%

3.1%

3.2%

* Non-Hispanic Source: Author analysis of data from US Census Bureau, obtained from Social Explorer.

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Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis the Baltimore MSA in both decades analyzed. Although their percentage in elevated and concentrated poverty tracts declined in the last twenty years, African-Americans are still disproportionately the largest group in the racial breakdown (Table 5).

Table 6: Dissimilarity Index and Race Poverty Correlation Coefficient for Baltimore MSA, 1990 and 2008-2012 1990

2008-2012

African-American to White

0.714

0.657

Asian to White

0.383

0.474

Hispanic or Latino to White

0.302

0.446

Populations of color to White

0.648

0.542

Dissimilarity Index

Poverty to Prosperity 0.510 0.446 According to a 2001 report by the Civil Rights Project at Harvard Race/Poverty Correlation Coefficient 0.639 0.634 University, racial residential Source: Author analysis of data from US Census Bureau, obtained from Social segregation was thriving in Explorer. the United States, despite the increasing diversity of the nation’s population. Data from the 2000 U.S. Census determined that the nation was the most racially and ethnically diverse in its history, yet in spite of this turning point, there is still a high level of racial residential segregation at the national level.

CORRELATION COEFFICIENT The race/poverty correlation coefficient indicates the relationship between the poverty rate and shares of racial and ethnic minority populations. The higher the coefficient, the stronger relationship there is between racial minorities and poverty. Baltimore MSA’s race/poverty coefficient is 0.63; ratings over .60 are considered “very high” (Table 6).

Further analysis found high race/poverty correlation coefficients in Baltimore City as well as in Anne Arundel, Baltimore, and Harford counties. The Baltimore MSA – Baltimore City and the surrounding six counties – had the 39th highest level of racial residential segregation between whites and African-Americans. What is perhaps even more troubling, the Baltimore MSA national comparative ranking between 1990, 2000, and 2010 increased from 49th to 39th to 16th, which indicates a growing level of racial residential segregation between whites and African-Americans in the Baltimore MSA. For the Baltimore MSA, high levels of racial residential segregation spell trouble on many levels, both in the near and long-term. One of the more lasting implications of growing racial residential segregation is the reinforcement of other societal inequalities such as educational opportunities and future employment prospects.

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF POVERTY AND RACIAL AND ETHNIC MINORITIES After analyzing the dissimilarity indexes along with the poverty and race maps drives home the point, it is clear that income inequality, poverty, and racial segregation are intertwined in the Baltimore MSA. The dissimilarity index measures the evenness between two groups across a specific area within a larger geographic area. For the two decades studied, there was a decline in every

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Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis index except for the Hispanic or Latino to White, which jumped from 0.30 to 0.45. The Hispanic population grew from 1.3 percent to 4.6 percent of the MSA population during the two decades, an increase of more than 250%, which more than likely explains the increase in the dissimilarity index. The African-American to White dissimilarity index dropped from 0.71 to 0.66 between 1990 and 2012, suggesting a small dispersal of African-American residents into predominantly white neighborhoods. While this reduction is an improvement, it still land squarely in the “very high” category and equates to “over 60% of the members of one racial group would need to move to a different tract for the two groups to be equally distributed” (Table 6).

HOUSEHOLD INCOME, POVERTY AND RACE MAPS Median household income maps for Baltimore MSA show the poverty rates have remained fairly constant in Baltimore City’s core over the last two decades, with the majority of census tracts at less than 50% of the median household income bracket. Communities near the city edge, just inside Baltimore county have seen a decline in household income in the last twenty years, most notably on the east side. Communities just north of the city in Baltimore county have seen household income growth move to the highest income bracket, but the overall trend still remains a patchwork of median household income bracket. Howard county and significant portions of Anne Arundel county remain in the highest median household income bracket, more than likely due to their proximity to Washington, DC (Figures 2, 3).

Figure 2: Median Household Income, Baltimore MSA, 1990 (in 1989 dollars)

LEGEND 1990 Median Household Income, Baltimore MSA

<50% 50-74% 75-99% 100-124% 125-149% >=150%

Source: US Census Bureau, obtained from Social Explorer.

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Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis Figure 3: Median Household Income, Baltimore MSA, 2008-2012 (in 2012 dollars)

LEGEND 2012 Median Household Income, Baltimore MSA

<50% 50-74% 75-99% 100-124% 125-149% >=150%

Source: US Census Bureau, obtained from Social Explorer.

As discussed earlier, Baltimore City’s crippling poverty rates are spatially understood when studying the percent ratio income to poverty level (doing poorly) maps for the last twenty years. The trends show that elevated poverty (>=20%) census tracts have spread out from Baltimore City’s central core to the city edges and edge communities. Poverty has also taken on a patchwork pattern across multiple counties in the Baltimore MSA since 1990 (Figures 4, 5).

Spatial analysis shows that although racial minorities have moved to the suburbs counties of Baltimore MSA, the suburbs still remain predominately white (Figures 6, 7). There have been pockets of gentrification in the Inner Harbor, which explains the small influx of white people back into the city’s central core. It is interesting to note that there has been minimal dispersal of the African-American population into the suburbs of Baltimore MSA, with the exception of the northwestern suburbs (Figures 8, 9).

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Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis Figure 4: Percent Ratio Income to Poverty Level: Under 1.00 (Doing Poorly), Baltimore MSA, 1990

LEGEND

Ratio Income to Poverty

Elevated Concentrated

Source: US Census Bureau, obtained from Social Explorer.

Figure 5: Percent Ratio Income to Poverty Level: Under 1.00 (Doing Poorly), Baltimore MSA, 2008-2012

LEGEND

Ratio Income to Poverty

Elevated Concentrated

Source: US Census Bureau, obtained from Social Explorer.

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Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis Figure 6: Percent White, non-Hispanic, Baltimore MSA, 1990

LEGEND % White, non-Hispanic

Source: US Census Bureau, obtained from Social Explorer.

Figure 7: Percent White, non-Hispanic, Baltimore MSA, 2008-2012

LEGEND % White, non-Hispanic

Source: US Census Bureau, obtained from Social Explorer.

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Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis Figure 8: Percent African-American, non-Hispanic, Baltimore MSA, 1990

LEGEND % African-American

Source: US Census Bureau, obtained from Social Explorer.

Figure 9: Percent African-American, non-Hispanic, Baltimore MSA, 2008-2012

LEGEND % African-American

Source: US Census Bureau, obtained from Social Explorer.

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Baltimore-Towson Urban Economic Analysis SUMMARY AND OVERALL TRENDS In the last thirty years, Baltimore MSA has closely matched national trends in population, median household income, racial makeup, and rate of poverty. In stark contrast, Baltimore City has experienced a 20 percent decline in population, stagnant median household income, a significant decline in its white population, a large increase in its African-American population, and nearly a quarter of its residents living in poverty.

Baltimore City has endured significant amounts of economic fallout since the end of World War II and de-industrialization: an exodus of residents to the suburbs, high unemployment, alarming homicide and drug addition, and plummeting educational opportunities and achievements by residents.

To combat these adversities, the city and state governments have made significant commitments to developers in the form of tax cuts, tax deferrals, or re-zoning of properties.

The city views these policies as long-term strategies to attract new, affluent residents and businesses through these improved properties, which will increase jobs in the city and raise much needed tax revenues to address broader systemic issues in the city.

This strategy led to some success in the last four decades, particularly with the Harbor Point Development, but it raises questions about further effectiveness. There has been some recent white migration back to the city, specifically in the redeveloped Inner Harbor neighborhood that now boasts high-end apartments, condos and town homes with luxury amenities never before seen in the inner city.

Over the last four decades, Baltimore City has also seen a spatial dispersal of poverty beyond the central city, into most of Baltimore City, as well as the into the bordering inner ring of suburbs. In Baltimore City, racial segregation still remains very high, income segregation remains high, and the race/poverty correlation remains high. The African-American population suffers disproportionately compared to all other populations of color. The moderate decline in segregation in Baltimore MSA, between 1990 and 2012, was achieved primarily through the integration in predominately white suburban neighborhoods, not through the integration of predominantly African-American neighborhoods.

So, although the Baltimore City has implemented some impressive urban renewal projects, the question remains: how will low-income and low-skill city residents benefit from the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s aggressive reinvestment policies? Are there alternatives that would better meet both the shortterm and long-term needs of Baltimoreâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s poverty-stricken residents?

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