Lower North Shore
MOSMAN 2016
Q4 MARKET REPORT LJ HOOKER LOWER NORTH SHORE
I M P O R TA N T I N F O R M AT I O N UPDATED INFORMATION Information may be subject to change from time to time and updated information can be obtained at any time by contacting Ashton Rowe at info@ashtonrowe.com.au. DISCLAIMER Whilst this information has been carefully compiled, no warranty or promise as to its correctness is made or intended. The information outlined within this document also represents subjective interpretation by Ashton Rowe (ACN 144 714 509) and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. Interested parties should undertake independent inquiries and investigations to satisfy themselves that any details herein are true and correct. No guarantee of forecasts are being made by Ashton Rowe about potential capital gains or losses. Past information about capital gains does not imply that such gains or growth will be made in the future. The material in this publication is copyright. This document cannot be reproduced without the express permission of Ashton Rowe. The information contained in this brochure is of a general nature and has been provided at least in part to Lj Hooker Pty Ltd (“Lj Hooker”) by Ashton Rowe. While Lj Hooker has no reason to believe that the information is incorrect, Lj Hooker and its related bodies corporate, directors, agents, contractors and employees makes no representation about the accuracy, reliability, completeness or timeliness of the information contained in the brochure and does no more than
Date compiled 17 January 2017. CONTENT INTEGRITY While Ashton Rowe believes it is unlikely that the electronic version of the report will be tampered with or altered in any way, Ashton Rowe cannot give any absolute assurance that this will not occur. Any investor in doubt concerning the validity or integrity of an electronic copy of the report should immediately request a paper copy of the document directly from Ashton Rowe. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. YOU SHOULD SEEK YOUR OWN FINANCIAL ADVICE. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of individuals. It is important that you read the entire document and any supplementary amendments in full before making any decisions. The product and pricing information contained within this document is based on price lists and third party information obtained throughout the course of our Investments. This information has been verified to the best of our ability, but Ashton Rowe accepts no responsibility for reliance on this information. This information has been prepared independently and at our own discretion. It is particularly important that you consider the risk factors that could affect the financial performance of the property. You should carefully consider these factors in light of your particular needs, objectives and financial circumstances (including financial and taxation issues) and seek professional advice from your own professional advisors.
pass it on to you. Lj Hooker has no belief one way or to the other as to the accuracy of the information. You should rely on your own enquires and seek appropriate professional advice with respect to any information contained in this brochure.
December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore
M osm an
MARKET OVERVIEW ASHTON ROWE IS ONE OF AUSTRALIA’S LEADING PROPERTY RESEARCH AND INVESTMENT FIRMS, SPECIALISING IN RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY. TO TA L M A R K E T
HOUSES
UNITS
6,456
10,050
D E C E M B E R Q U A RT E R S A L E S *
91
116
TURNOVER
1%
1%
P RO PE RT IES IN S U B U R B
LEARNING: Turnover is the number of quarterly sales divided by
Source:: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census 2011 and local council dwelling approvals
total properties in that market.
Median price is the
* 5% margin for error in this figure due to market information being with held.
middle price of all properties after they have been arranged
Total Houses
from smallest to
300
0
0
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
50 Q4 2016
1.0 Q1 2016
100
Q2 2015
2.0
Q3 2014
150
Q4 2013
3.0
Q1 2013
200
Q2 2012
4.0
Q3 2011
250
Q4 2010
5.0
Q1 2010
Median Price ($m)
6.0
UPPER
S OLD P R IC E S $5,400,000
highest. It best represents trends and buying patterns NOT capital growth.
ME D IA N
$3,225,000
LOWER
$2,700,000
Quartiles divide recent sales into four equal groups. 25% of sales are
Supply to market increased 3% taking it 35% below the 7 year average.
more than the upper quartile. 50% of sales are more than the median and
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
75% are more than the lower quartile. Finally, 50% of
Total Units 1.5
sales are between
300 240
Q4 2016
Q1 2016
0
Q2 2015
0
Q3 2014
60
Q4 2013
0.3
Q1 2013
120
Q2 2012
0.6
Q3 2011
180
Q4 2010
0.9
Supply to Market
1.2
Q1 2010
Median Price ($m)
QUARTILE
S OLD P R IC E S
UPPER
$1,527,750
ME D IA N
$1,137,750
LOWER
$825,000
the upper and lower quartiles. Properties that are priced above the upper quartile are typically more volatile than those priced close to the median.
Supply to market decreased 2% taking it 34% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore
M osm an
M A R K E T H E A LT H
LEARNING:
HOUSES
UNITS
D E C E M B E R Q U A RT E R
D E C E M B E R Q U A RT E R
C L E A R A N C E R AT E
91%
84%
D AY S O N M A R K E T
49
28
50%
50%
Auction Clearance
A U C T ION S
Rate is the percentage of
% O F S U P P LY
houses sold under the hammer or prior to auction. This figure excludes property passed in
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide
at auction.
% of Supply is the
HOUSES: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER*
percentage of property on the
A DDR ES S
BEDS
B ATH
P R IC E
30 Bradleys Head Road
6
4
$15,500,000
17 Morella Road
4
4
$14,000,000
5 Esther Road
4
4
$7,300,000
2 Edwards Bay Road
4
5
$7,145,000
20 Edwards Bay Road
4
2
$7,000,000
market being sold using the auction method and lets you know the relevance of the auction clearance rate. During a period of high demand the
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to December 2016
number of auctions typically increase.
UNITS: HIGHEST SALES PRICES IN QUARTER* A DDR ES S
BEDS
B ATH
P R IC E
2/41 Almora Street
3
2
$4,200,000
4 / 6 P a r k Av e n u e
-
-
$3,150,000
1 / 4 P a r k Av e n u e
5
4
$3,150,000
8/50-56 Muston Street
3
2
$2,950,000
12/50-56 Muston Street
3
2
$2,900,000
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Home price guide * Excludes undisclosed sales, Quarter to December 2016
December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore
M osm an
MARKET COMPOSITION WHICH TYPE OF HOUSES ARE SELLING
Last Quarter
Entire Period
18%
22% 35%
41%
41%
3 Beds
43%
4 Beds
5+ Beds
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.
WHICH TYPE OF UNITS ARE SELLING
Last Quarter
21%
Entire Period
26%
53%
1 Beds
22%
27%
51%
2 Beds
3 Beds
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled. Entire Period includes the last 7 years to the current quarter.
December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore
M osm an
B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S 3 Bedroom House Segment 60 50
4.0
40
3.0
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
5.0
30
Q4 2016
Q1 2016
Q2 2015
Q3 2014
0
Q4 2013
0
Q1 2013
10 Q2 2012
1.0 Q3 2011
20
Q4 2010
2.0
Q1 2010
Median Price ($m)
6.0
S OLD P R IC E S
UPPER
$2,750,000
ME D IA N
$2,475,000
LOWER
$1,858,750
LEARNING: Statistically Not Reliable is usually a result of not enough sales occurring to produce meaningful analysis.
Supply to market decreased 10% taking it 49% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
20
0
0
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
1.0 Q4 2016
40
Q1 2016
2.0
Q2 2015
60
Q3 2014
3.0
Q4 2013
80
Q1 2013
4.0
Q2 2012
100
Q3 2011
5.0
Q4 2010
120
Q1 2010
Median Price ($m)
4 Bedroom House Segment 6.0
S OLD P R IC E S
UPPER
$5,792,500
ME D IA N
$3,655,000
LOWER
$3,062,500
Supply to market increased 10% taking it 39% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
1.7
17
0
0
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
33
Q4 2016
3.3
Q1 2016
50
Q2 2015
5.0
Q3 2014
67
Q4 2013
6.7
Q1 2013
83
Q2 2012
8.3
Q3 2011
100
Q4 2010
10.0
Q1 2010
Median Price ($m)
5 Bedroom House Segment S OLD P R IC E S
UPPER
$5,962,500
ME D IA N
$5,400,000
LOWER
$3,925,000
Supply to market increased 5% taking it 24% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore
M osm an
B U Y I N G PAT T E R N S
0.5
10
0
0
QUARTILE
Supply to Market
20
Q4 2016
1.0
Q1 2016
30
Q2 2015
1.5
Q3 2014
40
Q4 2013
2.0
Q1 2013
50
Q2 2012
2.5
Q3 2011
60
Q4 2010
3.0
Q1 2010
Median Price ($m)
1 Bedroom Unit Segment S OLD P R IC E S
UPPER
$810,250
ME D IA N
$710,000
LOWER
$650,000
Supply to market increased 4% taking it 24% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
0.5
20
0
0
Supply to Market
40
Q4 2016
1.0
Q1 2016
60
Q2 2015
1.5
Q3 2014
80
Q4 2013
2.0
Q1 2013
100
Q2 2012
2.5
Q3 2011
120
Q4 2010
3.0
Q1 2010
Median Price ($m)
2 Bedroom Unit Segment QUARTILE
S OLD P R IC E S
UPPER
$1,299,000
ME D IA N
$1,105,000
LOWER
$917,500
Supply to market stayed the same taking it 33% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
0.5
10
0
0
Supply to Market
20
Q4 2016
1.0
Q1 2016
30
Q2 2015
1.5
Q3 2014
40
Q4 2013
2.0
Q1 2013
50
Q2 2012
2.5
Q3 2011
60
Q4 2010
3.0
Q1 2010
Median Price ($m)
3 Bedroom Unit Segment
QUARTILE
S OLD P R IC E S
UPPER
$2,762,500
ME D IA N
$2,100,000
LOWER
$1,851,250
Supply to market decreased 21% taking it 51% below the 7 year average.
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments, RP Data and Price Finder
December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore
M osm an
C A P I TA L G R O W T H
S UB U R B GR OW T H
HOUSES
UNITS
1 0 Y E A R AV E R A G E *
5.3%
6.6%
3 Y E A R AV E R A G E *
15.9%
11.5%
12 MONTHS**
17.2%
10.6%
LEARNING: Previously, the only way to measure a suburb’s capital growth was to compare the median sale price of
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex - Suburb Report December 2015 *Annualised capital growth **Capital growth over the last 12 months
properties sold in one period with the median sale price of
Units - Capital Growth
Houses - Capital Growth
properties sold in
60%
60%
the next period. This
50%
50%
however is plagued
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
at the lower end of
10%
10%
the market and in
-0%
-0%
-10%
with problems. To explain, if in one quarter there were many property sales
the next quarter,
Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016
Mosman Houses
Total
-10%
Sydney Houses
there were more sales at the high
Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016
Mosman Units
Total
Sydney Units
end, this would show a large increase in median
Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex Suburb Report December 2015 *Rolling 12 month periods to quarter end
price, but would not reflect actual capital growth. Therefore,
The Mosman residential market has outperformed the Sydney metropolitan market by an average of 2.4% each year over the last three years for houses and by 0.6% per year for units.
median price best represents buying patterns.
Capital Growth Calculation: In short, the calculation methodology takes “sale pairs” for every property that has at least two sales recorded. These individual property growth rates are then combined into a complete growth rate for the chosen suburb. The development of this methodology won an international actuarial award in 1992. More recently, a paper issued by the Reserve Bank of Australia (Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-sales Measures, James Hansen, 2006) confirmed this methodology to be superior to those based on simple movements in median price. For more visit www.ashtonrowe.com.au Source: Ashton Rowe Investments and Residex
December Quarter 2016 © Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 2017 Report provided exclusively to LJ Hooker Lower North Shore
Powered by Ashton Rowe