24 minute read
EVIDENCE-BASED LP
State of the Profession
After participating in the Food Marketing Institute’s conferences, the RILA Asset Protection Conference, NRF Protect, the Retail Council of Canada’s Loss Prevention Conference, the Mexican ANTAD, the British loss prevention conferences, ASIS conferences, the Loss Prevention Research Council (LPRC) Impact Conference, and several retailers’ annual meetings over the years, I am so proud of the energy, ideas, and results the loss prevention and asset protection industry is achieving. And the talent and dedication of the people is amazing.
But I also have to report that—after twenty-five years of the National Retail Security Survey (NRSS) and other retail loss study findings—overall shrink levels have not really improved much. And anecdotal reports from over forty retail chains indicate theft and violence levels may be rising.
So we all have a great challenge ahead of us. Retail companies rely on effective crime and loss control. Desired merchandise needs to get to the right place at the right time and be available for busy customers. Hard-earned sales receipts need to stay in the point-of-sale terminal and be deposited. Loyal shoppers and employees need to be and feel safe in retail environments.
More Precision
Precision loss prevention, like precision medicine, is an emerging approach for prevention that takes into account individual variability in people, environment, and patterns for each location. Precision LP is part of evidence-based practice—using science to more deeply and broadly understand what combination of the above factors is creating a location’s crime and loss, so more precise countermeasures can be applied.
Precision LP should boost positive outcomes—such as lower levels of poor process design and execution, negligence, crime attempts, and loss, and greater profitability—because it is targeted at a location’s specific problems and dynamics. Each location is different along with the causes and extent of its problems. So solutions targeted and dosed for a specific location tend to work better than broad-brush approaches.
Stores and distribution centers vary on what and how much merchandise or other attractors they have. Each location operates in varying demographic and transportation conditions meaning more or less numbers of potential offenders, as well as ease of ingress and egress levels. Store designs, in terms of in-store sightlines and visibility, vary widely. Store and other place managers fluctuate on how skilled and committed they are on protective actions. And finally, preventive resources and their relevance vary by site as well.
by Read Hayes, PhD, CPP
Dr. Hayes is director of the Loss Prevention Research Council and coordinator of the Loss Prevention Research Team at the University of Florida. He can be reached at 321-303-6193 or via email at rhayes@lpresearch.org. © 2015 Loss Prevention Research Council
Precision Process
So precision LP means using a logical process to more cost-effectively prevent or control a problem. Precision LP has a few primary assumptions: targeting the mechanisms that create loss more effectively improves location performance; these mechanisms are in part unique to each location; LP decision-makers must have research and individual location data to identify critical mechanisms for specific targeting; and problems leave signatures, such as clusters of particular SKUs, incidents, locations, times, people, and crime methods of operation. But more datasets are needed to help retailers more precisely control problems.
Industry Level. We don’t need just big data; we need little data, and most importantly, we need to have all the data flow into a central, secure repository. We need practitioners and scientists alike to feed into and have access to the data. Retailers and researchers would feed in their test results on what things work best on specific problems in specific places via a web-based form that provides the research method and results without revealing the submitting retailer’s name.
We would also need to bring together data from broader studies and datasets like the University of Florida’s NRSS, the Centre for Retail Research’s Global Theft Barometer, the evolving National Shrink Database, LERPnet, and others. We would need scientists to evaluate the data and provide simple descriptions of what they found and what that means for a practitioner. We would then build a global best-methods database. The LPRC Research Fusion Center is helping work toward that goal as part of this scenario. We then can work toward a comparative effectiveness matrix for common problems. For example, a practitioner might address a truck-hijacking problem by looking at several anti-hijack methods that have all been rigorously evaluated.
Company Level. On the retailer and solution partner level, greater precision means consistently using the problem-solving techniques discussed here and elsewhere, like SARA (scan, analyze, respond, assess), to really identify specific problem causes and then focus solutions on those mechanisms. And in-house assessments
should ideally be fairly rigorous, including using control locations to rule out many other causes of observed outcomes. And then as mentioned, retailers and their solution partners should submit their findings to the data warehouse.
Science as Practice
Science is not perfect, and science does not move quickly. But the scientific method is so far the best way man has devised to more fully understand offender decision-making, and how and how well deterrent countermeasures really work.
Stanford University researchers are working with managers in retailing and other businesses to move to a more fact-based approach. They recommend several practices for executives: ■ Commit to fact-based decision making, which means getting the best evidence and using it to guide actions. ■ Avoid solely basing decisions on untested but strongly held beliefs, what you have done in the past, simplistic or small-test case studies, tests in just “bad” locations, simple period-to-period or year-on-year comparisons, or uncritical benchmarking of what “winners” do.
The core activities of evidence-based practice will include: ■ A questioning approach to practice, leading to scientific experimentation, ■ Meticulous observation, enumeration, and analysis that greatly enhances anecdotal case descriptions, ■ Recording and cataloguing the evidence for systematic retrieval, and ■ Ongoing discourse or critical discussion of problems and methods.
Multi-Method Research Highly Recommended
Evidence-based practice works best when it is in real-world situations and when more than one project is used to inform and validate what you or others find or claim. We suggest working to triangulate data using more than one research effort, and then you have more and better data to go with.
Statistical models identify concurrent relationships. They help prioritize relationships in order of strength. But many or even most correlations turn out to be spurious or unhelpful, maybe suggestive, but not necessarily causal, which is what we need to take action. But modeling is still good practice and part of the process.
Field experiments test identified or suspected relationships and should always include good sampling, randomization, manipulation, and control. Statistical significance testing helps sort out random findings from systematic results. Good field evaluations also provide usable ROI data.
Systematic offender interviews provide insight and can help make sense of predictive models and experiments. These people are the “target audience” of our deterrent cues, so we must have their feedback. This process is tough to do correctly, but well worth the effort.
Most data sets are riddled with error, so do your best to reduce bad information and then “clean” and adjust the data according to statistical science before using it. Raw data is seldom usable.
Wrap Up
Evidence-based LP is tough and requires expertise, resources, patience, and time. But most of us have learned the right way to do things is usually the toughest way. A commitment by LP and industry leaders to moving our discipline from anecdote to fact-based practice will pay off. LP effectiveness, efficiency, and financial impact increases. The respect and ability to communicate and “sell” LP programs is enhanced. And we have evidence to back this claim up.
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ARIA RESORT & CASINO, LAS VEGAS
HOLDING ALL THE CARDS WHEN THE CHIPS ARE DOWN
By John Wilson, Executive Editor, LP Magazine EU
“W hat happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas,” or so the saying goes. But does it? Behaviors along the famous Strip in Las Vegas are not unlike any major Main Street where you have browsers, serial shoppers, or gamblers; and then you add to the mix those seasoned shoplifters or fraudsters who want or have to steal or those who feel compelled to take on the casino and play it at its own game, as they see it. These individuals represent 15 percent of the population on the honest versus dishonest continuum, with a further 15 percent who never steal, while the remaining 70 percent would like their chances if the odds were better, or there was no chance of them getting caught. For this 15 percent of hardened chancers, it could be argued, that they are the real gamblers who want to beat the system, whatever the odds.
But to achieve this they will have to get past Ted Whiting, the director of surveillance at Aria Resort & Casino, one of Las Vegas’s biggest casino-led entertainment venues. He is the man with all of the cards. But with more than 150,000 square feet of gaming space in a 500,000-square-foot triple-A resort that includes ten properties, 145 table games, 1,940 slot machines, and a 24-table poker room, Whiting knows the odds and recognises that he cannot do it alone.
In an exclusive interview with LP Magazine EU, Whiting shows his hand and talks candidly about his technology, Google Glass, why walking quickly and scuffed footwear are always a give-away, and not to mention why he can’t watch the Oceans Eleven franchise of films.
Ted Whiting, director of surveillance, in the camera room at the Aria Resort & Casino, Las Vegas.
A Veteran of the Gaming Industry
Having been employed in the gaming industry since 1989, Ted Whiting has seen every trick going and is ever-watchful of new scams, which is why you will never see a pair of Google Glass worn at any table on his watch. It may be a new technology, but card watching and recording is one of the oldest tricks in the book.
“In the history of cheating, the behavior is always the same. It is the technology and speed that is updated, which is why we don’t allow Google Glass, smartphones, or any of the new generation of wearable computers at our tables,” said Whiting, whose own forensic eye and data-driven, the-devil-is-in-the-detail approach enables him to read people the way that criminals and chancers may read cards.
“I have held every job in the casino, including dealer, cage cashier, and poker room brush,” said Whiting, who previously worked in the Mirage Resort & Casino surveillance room from 1995 until 2009 before being promoted to director of surveillance in 2001.
His résumé reads like an instruction manual of how to identify the bad guys. Whiting helped create and implement the
TED WHITING has been employed in the gaming industry since 1989. Early in his career he held various casino positions, including dealer, cage cashier, and poker room brush. From 1995 until 2009, Whiting worked in the Mirage Resort & Casino surveillance room and was promoted to director of surveillance in 2001. Since 2006, he has worked on creating the casino surveillance system at the multi-billion dollar resort and casino project known as City Center. Whiting officially became the director of surveillance for City Center’s Aria Resort & Casino in 2009.
Whiting created and implemented the MGM Resorts International Advantage Player Identification training program and casino loss prevention training for table games and casino surveillance. In addition, he is the chairman of the MGM Resorts security and surveillance technology steering committee and administrator for iTrak, the corporate surveillance report and suspect database. As chair for the technology steering committee, Whiting has brought in new CCTV technologies, such as 360degree cameras, data mining and alarming, and license-plate recognition systems.
During his career, Whiting has written different computer programs that are in use in several surveillance rooms on the Las Vegas Strip. One of his programs, called baccarat player analysis, is used to evaluate high-action baccarat play. His next foray into surveillance software was his surveillance database, a report-writing program that includes a card counting and basic strategy tutorial.
Whiting has been a speaker at UNLV, University of Denver, Cornell University Alumni conference, and Johns Hopkins Educator Conference, as well as participating on panels and as a speaker at casino industry conventions, such as G2E and the World Game Protection Conference.
MGM Resorts International Advantage Player Identification training program and casino loss prevention training for table games and casino surveillance. In addition, he is the administrator for iTrak, the corporate surveillance report and suspect database, and the chairman of the MGM Resorts security and surveillance technology steering committee, where he has been among the first to introduce new technologies to the Nevada casino industry.
In Ted Whiting’s world, compliance is king—play by the rules whether you are a gamer or an employee—and you are very welcome at the Aria. Introduce your own rules or not follow those of the house, then you can play or work somewhere else—you are not welcome on Ted Whiting’s watch.
Whiting is a numbers man, and his primary skill is data analysis. Combine this with his forte for psychology and people behavior in its various strange forms, and you witness something quite formidable.
“I love data and crunching through spreadsheets, but the reality is that we do not bust many people because we are on
top of our game and our employees are following the right procedures.
“People who are up to something always touch a part of their body. It is part of their body language that we look for when we are investigating certain tell-tale behavior. Similarly, people who walk too fast or very purposefully are on our radar because most people simply meander around,” he said.
If the Shoe Fits
Whiting will walk the floor of the gaming area and talk to people, but he gathers most of his intelligence from his office in the bowels of the building where he is studying numbers, behavior, and video footage to stitch together evidence that is not explicit to the naked or untrained eye. Indeed, it is not what is said, but what is not said.
To this extent, Whiting is a devotee of former FBI guru Joe Navarro whose non-verbal communication approach is the bread-and-butter of investigators across the US in much the same way that Wicklander-Zulawski has helped change the landscape of suspect interview techniques. Confrontation is no longer necessary in these cases as the suspect usually signs their own arrest warrant by their involuntary or unconscious actions.
Navarro specializes in the physiological versus psychological and where our body language betrays our true intent. In essence, although language is considered the basic
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form of human communication by most people, we communicate with much more than words. Indeed, according to Navarro and his latter disciples, non-verbal behavior represents the majority of our communication and reveals more reliable and honest information than words. Research shows that those who can effectively observe and interpret non-verbal communication will have greater success in life than individuals who lack this skill.
Joe Navarro’s best-selling book, What Every Body Is Saying: An Ex-FBI Agent’s Guide to Speed-Reading People, divides humans’ non-verbal behaviors into two categories on the basis of human-consciousness—those controlled by the conscious and subconscious—and most of Navarro’s illustrations are based on the limbic part of the brain. Navarro started this book by explaining why humans have certain behavior to express their emotions and how the limbic brain controls our bodies to express emotions non-verbally.
Putting the text book to the test, Whiting cites the example of the non-verbal communication of clothing, which he sees as a roadmap of where the suspect is going in terms of his or her criminal intent.
Media trainers the world over will tell their clients who want to look good on TV to “let the message come out of your mouth, not through what you are wearing.” A loud shirt or tie speaks far louder than even the most baritone voice. A national example of this is the daily television weather. Most people watching would not be able to tell you immediately afterward what conditions will be like the following day because they have been side-tracked by what the weather presenter is wearing or his or her body language in front of the climate map. In fact, a scientific test proved that verbal communication—the message you are trying to put across—only accounted for 7 percent of what people take in. A massive 70 percent is body language, but you cannot train your body to align with what is coming out of your mouth, which will always be the fraudsters’ nemesis.
Walking in Whiting’s Shoes
In this respect, no one would literally want to be in the shoes of any fraudster that tries their luck at the Aria. This is because shoes—worn ones to be more specific—are also a dead giveaway, according to Whiting.
“You can always tell by someone’s footwear what they are up to. You can look smart with a nice stolen jacket, but you can’t steal a good pair of shoes. So we always look out for scuffed or wrecked footwear.”
“We are dealing with human beings and spotting when they are comfortable or uncomfortable. Our job is to observe when they are not comfortable, and that means looking at the data in conjunction with the video footage.”
Looking down is not all Whiting and his team concentrates upon. In fact taking a broader strategic helicopter view of operations has made a major contribution to crime fighting.
Since 2006, he has worked on creating the casino surveillance system at the multi-billion dollar resort and casino project known as City Center, and he became the director of surveillance for City Center’s Aria Resort & Casino in 2009. These innovations include 360-degree cameras, infrared cameras in bars, data mining and alarming, and license plate recognition systems.
In the lawless world of the criminal, there are no regulations other than the imagination of the law-breaker. Conversely, casinos are among the most regulated environments in the world, so unlike the image portrayed in films like Oceans Eleven, it would appear that the odds are stacked against the gaming industry when it comes to protecting itself from often very clever criminal minds.
The regulations, including strict data-protection controls, are there for a reason—to maintain the integrity of gaming operations, which is why large, busy casinos must maintain continuous surveillance of multiple tables, machines, sports pools, cages, vaults, count rooms, records, and even the security room itself.
Casino operators have tried to solve the problem of being everywhere at once by installing more and more cameras, which means large banks of monitors, large storage space for recorded video, and a team of security professionals to monitor systems.
Camera Technology
Whiting, on the other hand, was looking for something less cumbersome and a little more flexible. One of his strategic investments has been with the award-winning, patented, 360-degree IP camera technology from Oncam Grandeye,
continued from page 46
which is able to monitor a larger area with fewer cameras, sometimes replacing as many as a dozen traditional cameras. Integrated views through Oncam’s customizable layouts have the ability to reduce the number of monitors and security personnel required.
Whiting’s knowledge and influence has resulted in Oncam getting to better understand the behavior of a casino adversary and how it differs from that of a legitimate guest. The end result is that only the threatening or fraudulent behavior is challenged, leaving others guests free to simply enjoy their visits.
The technology can monitor for card counters who exhibit specific behavior patterns, and once alerted to those variances and nuances, the cameras can probe further to track, interrogate, and verify, which means delving into previous behavior in early shots to confirm or challenge the hypotheses. Whiting often refers to the Oncam
technology as his “chase cameras,” but for him it is the ability to chase someone in the past. The 360-degree cameras literally record the history of a room or scene and aid forensic investigation. If confirmed,
Whiting’s team has the technological justification in terms of enough information to challenge a wrong-doer. Getting this wrong is not an option as it can be brand damaging if a legitimate customer is called into question based upon video footage.
So-called integrated appropriate technologies help to reduce security costs, minimize disruption of operations due to false alarms, and maintain the integrity of gaming operations.
“I have fifty cameras, and I can see everything. It is technology-driven surveillance. It’s a game changer in terms of people and vehicle number plate reading. I see a guy at the table who has left $130. I simply follow him backward through the footage and see that he is staying at our hotel. So the technology really works.”
This technology, tried on the gaming floors of Vegas, is also now used widely in retail and health and safety where malicious slips and trips are more easily sifted from the legitimate claims.
Whiting recognizes that technology is an enabler for both the criminals and law enforcement, and his business believes in the power of early adoption to stay one step
Whiting is a devotee of former FBI guru Joe Navarro whose non-verbal communication approach is the bread-andbutter of investigators across the US in much the same way that Wicklander-Zulawski has helped change the landscape of suspect interview techniques. Confrontation is no longer necessary in these cases as the suspect usually signs their own arrest warrant by their involuntary or unconscious actions.
continued on page 50
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continued from page 48 ahead. “The Internet is a boon, as is social media, because people always put stuff up on Facebook.”
As well as being technologically savvy, Whiting has a strong belief in real-life networking. His opinion is sought regularly on the media and lecture circuit where he has spoken as an industry expert at UNLV, University of Denver, Cornell University Alumni conference, and Johns Hopkins Educator Conference as well as participating on panels and as a speaker at casino industry conventions, such as Global Gaming Expo (G2E) and the World Game Protection Conference. He has been featured on several TV programs and different networks, including the National Geographic Channel, Destination America, CNBC, The Today Show, and local news. He is no stranger to newspapers and higher-brow print media as well, including Popular Mechanics and various security and surveillance industry magazines.
“I consult widely, and I have people I talk to all over the world.” Part of the rationale of this very public profile is deterrence—the don’t-even-think-about-it approach, and while encouraging people to come to Vegas, only do so if you plan to play by the rules.
Fact versus Fiction
It is easy to see why people would confuse Whiting for the Andy Garcia character in Oceans Eleven, the first of the franchise where Ocean’s gang sets up a heist of three casinos simultaneously. Garcia plays the ever-exasperated owner of the three gaming palaces, but apart from the fact that it is set in Las Vegas, that is where the similarity ends. The glamorous image of George Clooney and Brad Pitt taking on the security of the casino and ultimately triumphing is the stuff of fiction—it simply would not happen on Whiting’s watch. He sees no sense of the romance in the movie, plus the portrayal of the security team is less than flattering. Whiting shares a more direct critique, “I can’t watch that movie.”
The facts remain that Whiting and his team will never rest on their laurels, even though Vegas is the home of Caesar’s Palace upon whose head laurels were the crowning glory of an emperor who conquered much of the known world. There will always be people willing to gamble, and there will always be scammers and chancers who want to take the ultimate risk, whether it is by trick of the light or sleight of the hand.
The origins of the phrase “it happened in Vegas” are simple. It happened. It only happened there. And it happened far enough away not to have any negative effect on “the here and now.” In Whiting’s world, it simply won’t be allowed to happen. That is not to say that people won’t try, but few would take the gamble when they know their body language is likely to betray them at the first hurdle, and they see the odds stacked against them.
JOHN WILSON is executive editor of LP Magazine EU. A graduate in law and criminology, he is a business journalist with more than twenty-five years’ experience in newspapers, magazines, broadcast media, and public relations, as well as providing external affairs support for ORIS Forums. Wilson can be reached at john.wilson@orismedia.eu.
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