April 21, 2021
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COVID Variants Are Driving A New ‘Fourth Wave’ In Colorado, Polis Says
By John Daley and Chuck Murphy, CPR News Gov. Jared Polis on Friday delivered a mixed message touting the state’s near-triumph over COVID-19 even as he warned that we may be entering a “fourth wave” of the disease driven by variants of the virus. Cases are rising, hospitalizations are up and the 7-day average percentage of tests returning positive results has been moving in the wrong direction since March 25. That’s all bad. But vaccine distribution continues to go well, and deaths from COVID-19 have fallen to just more than three per day as older, more vulnerable Coloradans embrace the vaccine. Plus, large swaths of rural Colorado have been freed from most restrictions, allowing a return to near normal. That’s all good. The question for epidemiologists is whether the good will overtake the bad and allow all of Colorado to move past COVID-19. The answer will be known in the next two months or so, and it really depends on whether enough Coloradans choose to get vaccinated and keep their masks on while avoiding crowded indoor spaces until they have reached some level of immunity. “This is a race against the clock with the variants that are out there,” Polis said. “It’s really important now, more than ever wear a mask around others and avoid social gatherings.” That’s proving to be a big ask as spring arrives, Coors Field reopens to big crowds and people can sense the end is near. “I think it’s the fourth and final wave with everything we know about the vaccination schedule and what’s happening,” Polis said. “I don’t expect there’ll be a fifth wave, but that’s not our concern right now. It’s this fourth wave.” Of particular concern is the arrival of a new variant, called P.1, first detected in a traveler from Brazil upon arrival in Japan. It has now spread globally, with a particular hotspot in Vancouver, British Columbia. It came to Boulder last week, has already spread to other counties, and is worrisome both because it is more contagious than previous variants, and because the effect of vaccines on it is uncertain. “At this point, we really don’t have definitive information about the P.1 variant and vaccine effectiveness,” said Dr. Rachel Herlihy, state epidemiologist. “But ... the impact to vaccine effectiveness we believe is small, and vaccines continue to be the most important way to prevent transmission of COVID-19 including these new variants.” Herlihy said that in recent days, scientists estimate 50 percent of newly discovered cases in the state have been caused by variants of the original coronavirus. Most of those were first discovered in either the United Kingdom or California. “Until we get to a point where we can achieve this plateau or a decline in cases like we’re seeing in those over the age of 50 (due to growth in vaccinations), we really need to continue to use the strategies we’ve been using,” Herlihy said. “ Cont. on Page 16, See COVID Variants are Driving a New Fourth Wave
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