CDC Predicts Coronavirus Deaths to Reach 321,000

Page 6 Lost Creek Guide December 2, 2020

CDC Predicts Coronavirus Deaths May Reach Measles Deaths Soared Worldwide Up to 321,000 by Mid-December As of Friday, the U.S. had tallied 263,484 coronavirus-related deaths Last Year, as Vaccine Rates Stalled The new data, from the W.H.O. and C.D.C., alarmed public health experts, who fear the effect of the coronavirus pandemic this year could

By Alexandria Hein | Fox News Amid a surge in coronavirus cases nationwide and concern among leaders about postThanksgiving Day celebration spikes, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said forecasting models are predicting that the virus’ death toll in the U.S. could reach up to 321,000 by mid-December. According to the “COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths,” which was posted by the agency earlier this week, models are predicting that the number of newly reported coronavirus deaths will likely increase over the next four weeks, with between 10,600 and 21,400 new fatalities likely to be reported in the week ending Dec. 19, 2020. As such, the model predicts that between 294,000 and 321,000 total coronavirus deaths will have been reported by that time. As of Friday, the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus map reported 263,484 coronavirus deaths in the U.S. The country leads the world in the number of COVID-19-related fatalities, tallying nearly 100,000 more than Brazil, which has the second-highest number of deaths at 171,460. The grim news comes amid a wave of new coronavirus-related restrictions that have been implemented in regions across the U.S., and as officials pleaded with Americans to rethink holiday travel plans. The CDC had urged Americans not to travel for Thanksgiving and to keep celebrations to within a household, or under 10. New Mexico, Arizona, Virginia, California, Pennsylvania and Nevada are among states experiencing the sharpest spike in cases over the last two weeks, according to Johns Hopkins University. Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Nebraska, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Washington are also all experiencing spikes. Hope has been hinged on promising news from three coronavirus vaccines in developbring more bad numbers. : by Jan Hoffman 11/13/2020 New York Times Measles deaths worldwide swelled to their highest level in 23 years last year, according to a report released Thursday, a stunning rise for a vaccine-preventable disease and one that public health experts fear could grow as the coronavirus pandemic continues to disrupt immunization and detection efforts. The global death tally for 2019 — 207,500 — was 50 percent higher than just three years earlier, according to the analysis, released jointly by the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. No measles deaths were reported in the United States, but measles cases in the country hit a record annual high of 1,282 across 31 states, the most since 1992, according to figures updated earlier this month. As recently as 2012, the U.S. case number was 55. Public health experts said the soaring numbers are the consequence of years of insufficient vaccination coverage. They worry that the pandemic will exacerbate the spread of measles, a disease that is even more contagious than Covid-19. “We are worried that there are new gaps in immunity opening because of Covid on top of those that were already there,” said Dr. Natasha Crowcroft, senior technical adviser for measles and rubella at the W.H.O. “We can’t carry on in the same way and expect a different result,” she added, calling for more resources and creative applications of them. Although reported cases of measles so far have been lower this year, public health experts are holding those figures at arms’ length. They fear such numbers are a drastic undercounting, because of the pandemic’s global disruptions to health care, therefore reducing detection and medical care for measles — as well as prevention efforts. ment. While it’s not clear what role the vaccines may play in transmission, the hope is that they will prevent severe illness from formulating in new patients. On Thursday, during a special Thanksgiving holiday message to troops serving over- Colorado Limits Gatherings to 10 People From seas, President Trump said that coronavirus vaccine deliveries will begin as early as next no More than Two Households as Coronavirus week. He noted that front-line workers, medical personnel and senior citizens would be among the first to receive the vaccine. Spike Continues

Previously, Coloradans were allowed to gather in groups of up to 25 people with no limit on how many households those people could be from.

by Jesse Paul, The Colorado Sun

The order goes into effect immediately and lasts for at least 30 days

Previously, Coloradans were allowed to gather in groups of up to 25 people with no limit on how many households those people could be from.

“We are asking all Coloradans to act with an abundance of caution to reverse these worrying trends,” Jill Hunsaker Ryan, executive director of the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, said in a written statement. “Right now, the virus is spreading when people from multiple households attend gatherings. We need to keep gatherings smaller and with people from fewer households — we are asking everyone to ‘shrink their bubble’ to reduce the spread.”

Ryan asked Coloradans to “take every effort to reduce contact with members of other households.”

“If you can work remotely, please do so to reduce contact with other individuals,” she said. “Taking action now can prevent your loved ones from getting sick, and help us save lives and avoid stricter public health orders in the future.”

There is no limit on gatherings of members of the same household. But people can forget about gathering in parks, backyards or indoors with a few other couples to socialize — at least for the time being. Same thing goes for multiple families that want to get together, even though there are more than 10 people gathering

Colorado’s daily case numbers are higher than they’ve ever been and the state’s seven-day test positivity rate, at 5.8%, is at its highest level since June. Hospitalizations, meanwhile, are at their highest level since May 21

Dr. Rachel Herlihy, Colorado’s top epidemiologist, has warned that if the trend is not reversed, the state’s intensive-care hospital bed capacity could be surpassed in the coming months.

Denver, as well as Adams and Arapahoe counties, last week enacted new restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19. The three counties have experienced among the highest spike in the disease.

Denver now requires mask-wearing outdoors, while Adams County ordered alcohol sales at restaurants and bars to end at 10 p.m. and Arapahoe County ordered restaurants and bars to stop selling alcohol at 11 p.m.

The new statewide order on gatherings didn’t provide specifics on what penalties violators could face, only that there could be sanctions.

“This order will be enforced by all appropriate legal means,” the order said. “Local authorities are encouraged to determine the best course of action to encourage maximum compliance. Failure to comply with this order could result in penalties, including jail time, and fines, and may also be subject to discipline on a professional license based upon the applicable practice act.”

Counties that are in Gov. Jared Polis’ “protect our neighbors” status are automatically exempt. Those include Gunnison, Gipin, Rio Blanco and Moffat counties. (Mesa County’s “protect-our-neighbors” status was downgraded this week because of its rising caseload.)

Colorado’s 60 other counties are in the “safer-at-home” phase and their residents must abide by the gathering limitations.

There are a host of exemptions for athletics, restaurants, retail, manufacturing, health care settings, offices, critical businesses and government entities, schools, universities and places of worship.

The new gatherings order essentially only applies to social gatherings outside of a business or office setting.

The order was issued days after Polis sidestepped questions about statewide action he may take to limit spread of COVID-19, instead calling for targeted restrictions.

“It’s acting to contain the virus where it is at a moment in time,” he said Tuesday in endorsing local approaches to stopping the disease’s spread. “… There’s different measures at different times in different places depending on the conditions.”

The new order from CDPHE was unveiled in a news release. Polis’ regular Friday coronavirus briefing was moved because of wildfires impacting the state.