Maryland's Missing Students

Maryland’s Missing Students Mapping the Demographics of High School Dropout Rates and Attendance Rates for the School Year ‘07–‘08 A Study by Bill Fearrington and Louis Umerlik for CCBC’s GEOA 250 Advanced Geospatial Applications May 2009

Table of Contents Proposal & Scope of Work Introduction....................................................................... 1 Proposal & Scope of Work................................................. 2 Purpose........................................................................... 2 Educational Institutional Profile..................................... 2 Definition of Terms........................................................ 3 Project Goals.................................................................. 4 Project Tasks................................................................... 4 Methodology.................................................................. 5 Assumptions................................................................... 5 Project Receivables.......................................................... 5 Project Deliverables........................................................ 5 Quality Assurance/Quality Control................................ 5

Maps Introduction to Maps......................................................... 6 State of Maryland Maps Introduction to State of Maryland Maps......................... 7 Dropout Rates................................................................ 8 Attendance Rates............................................................ 9 Students More Than 20 Days Absent............................ 10 State of Maryland Maps by Median Household Income Dropout Rates.............................................................. 11 Attendance Rates.......................................................... 12 Students More Than 20 Days Absent............................ 13 Dropout Rates by IDW Raster Image........................... 14

Attendance Rates by IDW Raster Image............................15 State of Maryland Maps by Ethnicity Dropout Rates by Caucasian Population........................ 16 Attendance Rates by Caucasian Population...................... 17 Dropout Rates by African-American Population............. 18 Attendance Rates by African-American Population........... 19 Dropout Rates by Asian-American Population................ 20 Attendance Rates by Asian-American Population............. 21 Dropout Rates by Hispanic Population.......................... 22 Attendance Rates by Hispanic Population........................ 23 County Focus Maps Introduction to County Focus Maps............................. 24 Dropout Rates, Attendance Rates & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by School District........... 25 County Focus Maps by Median Household Income Dropout Rates, Attendance Rates & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by School District........... 26 County Focus Maps by Ethnicity Caucasian Population.................................................... 27 African-American Population.......................................29 Asian-American Population.......................................... 31 Hispanic Population..................................................... 33 County Comparison Maps Introduction to County Focus Maps............................. 35 Dropout Rates, Attendance Rates & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by School District........... 36 County Comparison Maps by Median Household Income Dropout Rates, Attendance Rates & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by School District........... 38

County Comparison Maps—Ethnicity Caucasian Population.................................................... 40 African-American Population.......................................42 Asian-American Population.......................................... 44 Hispanic Population..................................................... 46

Analysis Final Analysis................................................................... 48 Recommendations............................................................ 49

For more...

Notes............................................................................... 50 For Further Information................................................... 50 Contact Information........................................................ 50

Appendix Appendix I....................................................................... 51 Appendix II...................................................................... 51 Appendix III....................................................................51 Appendix IV....................................................................52

Š 2009 by Bill Fearrington & Louis Umerlik for the Community Colleges of Baltimore County

Introduction

B

efore a student drops out of high school, most of them begin missing class first. A study by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation found that “59 to 65 percent of respondents [to the survey] missed class often the year before dropping out. [They] described a pattern of refusing to wake up, skipping class, and taking three hour lunches; each absence made them less willing to go back.”1 Having been disengaged from school, these students dropped out. This decision alone will lower the trajectory of their future success.

The decisions of these students cannot be considered alone; there is also a school system responsible for their achievements. The high school dropout rate is one of the indicators of the success or failure of both individual schools and entire school systems. In the 2007-2008 school year, the Maryland Public High School System enrolled 288,733 students, and of those students 9,815 dropped out.2 This is a dropout rate of roughly 3.4%, which is slightly below the national average of 3.8%, according to the latest figures available from the U.S. Department of Education based on the 2005-2006 school year.

Maryland is the wealthiest state in the country with a median household income estimated by the 2007 Census Estimates to be $68,080. However, Maryland’s dropout rate is not significantly lower than the national average. If Maryland can’t lower its dropout rate even further, then it may have to devote more of its budget each year to caring for high school dropouts.

Not only do dropouts cause Maryland to lose tax revenue because they earn nearly $10,000 less a year than the state’s high school graduates, they also increase Medicaid expenses because dropouts tend to have poorer health.3 In addition, Maryland must pay more to keep the prisons running as there is a link between dropout rates and incarceration rates, which doubles for dropouts compared to high school graduates.4 “Crime is often an outcome of marginalization and dropouts have been marginalized,” said Joseph McDonald, dean of New York University’s School of Education.5 One of the early warning signs of a student feeling marginalized is a drop in their attendance rate. Regular school attendance is commonly seen as necessary for academic achievement. High attendance and low truancy rates reflect the willingness of students to engage in school learning and the capacity of the school system to meet their needs.6 This makes it clear that a healthy and successful school system requires a sensitivity towards the needs of its most at risk students, so they do not become marginalized and drop out.

To further explore the issue, a stark contrast appears between the dropout rate of different ethnic groups and income levels. One nationwide study published in 2006 showed that not only do dropout rates vary widely between ethnic groups (Asian: 2.0%, Black: 9.4%, Hispanic: 10.4%, White: 4.9%), but they also vary widely between socioeconomic quartiles (Lowest: 12.4%, Second: 7.7%, Third: 3.8%, Highest:

1.8%).7 These are very important trends to uncover and understand if Maryland is going to effectively lower its dropout rate.

Our study will focus on the dropout rates for the State of Maryland. Comparisons will be made for each high school district with regard to the dropout rates, the average daily attendance rate, the percentage of students more than 20 days absent, the ethnicity and the median household income. We believe that considering these different datasets in concert will reveal important correlations.

GIS provides the tools to create maps of high schools and their districts located within each Maryland county. The analysis will be achieved using census data and data from MDreportcard.org.

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Proposal & Scope of Work Purpose

Educational Institutional Profile

T

T

o determine if there is a correlation between several Maryland Report Card.org criteria (dropout rates, attendance rates, and percentage of students more than 20 days absent), and socio-economic demographic data (median household income and ethnicity).

he Community College of Baltimore County provides an accessible, affordable and high-quality education that prepares students for transfer and career success, strengthens the regional work force and enriches our community.

The Geospatial Applications program provides comprehensive instruction in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), photogrammetry and remote sensing and Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Geospatial techniques are used to aid in decision making in fields as diverse as business, marketing, homeland security, public policy, environment, engineering, public health, archeology and criminal justice by identifying patterns between graphical information (maps) and data. A unique aspect of the CCBC Geospatial program is the incorporation of real-world situations in all courses, starting at the introductory level.

Advanced Geospatial Applications, GEOA 250 is the capstone course of the program. It requires students to draw on experience from all previous courses in the Geospatial Applications program, while working as a team on a complex project, taking it from inception to completion.

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Proposal & Scope of Work Definition of Terms High School: A public high school in Maryland that has a school district. This study excludes Baltimore City public high schools.

Dropout Rate:8 The percentage of students dropping out of school in grades 9–12 in a single year. The dropout rate is computed by dividing the number of dropouts by the total number of students in grades 9–12 served by the school. Students who re-enter school during the same year in which they dropped out of school are not counted as dropouts.

Attendance Rate (Average Daily Attendance):9 This rate reflects the percentage of students present in school for at least half the average school day during the school year. The average daily attendance for a given year is based on the aggregate number of enrolled students who are present in school each day from the first day of school through March 15th. A student is counted present only if actually at school or present at another place at a school activity that is sponsored by the school and is personally supervised by a member or members of the school staff.

Ethnicity: The classification of a population that shares common characteristics, such as, religion, traditions, culture, language, and tribal or national origin.10 The racial and ethnic categories set forth … should not be interpreted as being scientific or anthropological in nature; and the concepts and terminology should reflect clear and generally understood definitions that can achieve broad public acceptance.11 Because of project constraints, this study will focus on only the Caucasian, African-American, Asian-American and Hispanic population.

Median Household Income:12 the amount which divides households into two equal groups, one having incomes above that amount and the other having incomes below that amount. The median is the preferred measure of central tendency because it is less sensitive than the average (mean) to extreme observations. The median is also considerably lower than the average, and provides a more accurate representation of the wealth of the typical household.

GIS (Geographical Information Systems):13 An integrated collection of computer software and data used to view and manage information about geographic places, analyze spatial relationships, and model spatial processes. A GIS provides a framework for gathering and organizing spatial data and related information so that it can be displayed and analyzed.

Students Absent More Than 20 Days:14 The percentage of students absent from school more than 20 days (i.e., 20.5) during the September to June school year.

Summer school attendance is excluded. The percentage is computed by dividing the number of students absent more than 20 days by the number of students in membership more than 90 days at a given school during the September to June school year.

Thiessen Polygons: Polygons whose boundaries are defined by the area that is closest to each point relative to other points.

School ID: Unique Identification number assigned to schools by MDReportcard.org

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Proposal & Scope of Work Project Goals This project will produce the following goals:

• Identify the locations of Maryland public high schools and their districts.

• Identify the dropout rates, attendance rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent of the student bodies of Maryland public high schools.

• Identify the median household income and ethnic diversity of each school district.

• Compare and contrast the education data with socio-economic demographics of each school district.

Project Tasks 1. Downloaded the dropout rates, attendance rates & the percentage of students more than 20 days absent from MDReportCard.org.

• Extracted only public high schools in Maryland that have a defined school district boundary.

This eliminated the technical high schools in each county.

2. Extracted the public high schools from SHA (State Highway Administration) Points of Interest dataset.

• Manually added the unique school ID number to the SHA School dataset.

• Joined the MDReportCard 2007-08 data for dropout rates, attendance rates & the percentage of students more than 20 days absent to the SHA School dataset based on the unique school ID number.

3. Added points for high schools missing from the SHA Points of Interest Data set.

• Found the school addresses on their web sites.

• Entered the addresses into Google Earth to obtain an XY value.

• Created points in the data set and added the school data.

• For a list of schools, see Appendix I. 4. Obtained high school district shapefiles for all of the Maryland high schools with districts from their respective County by contacting the GIS Manager for that particular County. If shapefiles were not available, then polygons were created by using alternative information provided (i.e. a paper/web site map, school bus routes). If there was no information, then Thiessen polygons were created (See Appendix II and III).

• Added the unique school ID number to the school district dataset.

• Joined the MDReportCard 2008 data for dropout rates, attendance rates & the percentage of students more than 20 days absent to the school district dataset based on the unique school ID number.

5. Downloaded Maryland Block Group shapefile from Census.gov • Contained ethnicity data sets.

6. Downloaded the median household income from Census.gov • Joined data to the Maryland Block Group shapefile.

7. Created centroids from the Census Block Groups for Maryland.

• Attributed each centroid to the school district that contained it.

• Selected by the Location of the centroids to each school district.

• Created an average median household income and ethnicity for the school districts.

8. Created a raster image that represented the variations of the median household income.

9. Selected the median household income on the centroid layer.

• Created an IDW (Inverse Distance Weighted) raster using ArcGIS Spatial Analyst.

10. Dissolved county boundaries to create the state boundary.

11. Compared and contrasted the education data with socio-economic demographics of each school district.

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Proposal & Scope of Work Methodology

Assumptions

Project Receivables

Data for this project was obtained from a variety of sources. Dropout rates, attendance rates, and the percentage of students more than 20 days absent and school ID’s were downloaded from www.mdreportcard. org. Census block group data which included ethnicity and median household income data was obtained from census.gov. The Maryland public high school locations were downloaded from Maryland State Highway Administration’s Points of Interest file.

School district files, where available, were obtained from respective county GIS departments. If the school districts weren’t available the school districts were created by generating thiessen polygons. The school districts created by thiessen polygons were similar in comparison with school district maps displayed on county board of education web sites.

Each Maryland public high school was matched with its unique identifier from the 2008 Maryland Report Card data. This was necessary so that dropout rates, attendance rates, and the percentage of students more than 20 days absent would be able to be joined to the high school point file.

ESRI’s ArcGIS 9.2 GIS software was used to create the maps of the State of Maryland, Maryland counties, Maryland public high school districts, and the locations of Maryland public high schools.

This analysis has the following assumptions:

1. Median household Income School districts with higher median household incomes will have: • higher attendance rates.

• less students absent more than 20 days.

• lower dropout rates.

School districts with lower median household incomes will have: • lower attendance rates.

• more students absent more than 20 days.

• higher dropout rates.

• SHA Points of Interest.

• 2007-8 MDReportCard.org tables for dropout rates, attendance rates, and the percentage of students more than 20 days absent of the student bodies.

• County boundaries provided by ESRI data DVD. • School district boundaries.

• Census 2000 block group shapefiles with median household income and ethnicity data set.

2. Ethnicity Certain ethnic populations will have: • higher dropout rates, lower attendance rates, and more students absent more than 20 days - African-American & Hispanic • lower dropout rates, higher attendance rates, and less students absent more than 20 days - Caucasian & Asian-American

Project Deliverables

3. Urban vs. Rural school districts School districts closer to Baltimore City and Washington, DC, will have higher dropout rates, lower attendance rates, and more students absent more than 20 days.

CCBC’s Geospatial Applications Department is committed to providing quality products that are inspected and reviewed throughout the project life cycle.

• Detailed report of our findings.

• Maps in PDF format.

Quality Assurance/Quality Control

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Maps Introduction The following maps compare several variables for Maryland public high school districts. These variables include attendance rates, dropout rates, percentage of students more than 20 days absent, median household income, and ethnic groups.

Map Projections All of the maps are projected in NAD 1983 HARN, State Plane Maryland, FIPS 1900 Feet.

State of Maryland Maps County Focus Maps County Comparison Maps

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State of Maryland Maps Introduction These maps show the dropout rates, attendance rates, and the percentage of students more than 20 days absent for each high school across the state of Maryland compared to median household income and ethnicity.

These maps do not including Baltimore City.

See Appendix IV on page 52 for a map labeled with county names.

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State of Maryland

Dropout Rates

Baltimore City

Dropout Rates

low

middle

high

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 + in percent

Washington, DC

T

his map depicts all Maryland school districts symbolized by dropout rates. This map confirms our assumption that the areas closer to Baltimore and Washington, DC, would have higher dropout rates compared to other areas.

However there is a considerable presence of high dropout rates east of the Chesapeake Bay.

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State of Maryland

Attendance Rates

Baltimore City

Attendance Rates low middle high + 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 in percent

Washington, DC

T

his map depicts all Maryland school districts symbolized by attendance rates. This map confirms our assumption that the areas closer to Baltimore and Washington, DC, would have lower attendance rates than other areas.

9

State of Maryland

Students More Than 20 Days Absent

Baltimore City

Students more than 20 days absent low

middle

high

– 6 – 12 – 18 – 24 + in percent

Washington, DC

T

his map depicts all Maryland school districts symbolized by percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This map confirms our assumption that the areas closer to Baltimore and Washington, DC, would have more students who were absent more than 20 days compared to other areas.

10

State of Maryland by Median Household Income

Dropout Rates

Median Household Income low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

– 45 – 55 – 65 – 75 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

in thousands of dollars

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by median household income with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates. This map proves our assumption that the lower median household income the higher the dropout percentage. However, Montgomery County is an exception to our analysis with many schools with high dropout rates.

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State of Maryland by Median Household Income

Attendance Rates

Median Household Income low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 45 – 55 – 65 – 75 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in thousands of dollars

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by median household income with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on Attendance rates. This map proves our assumption that the higher median household income the higher the attendance rate. However, Prince George’s County is an exception with very low Attendance Rates and a rather high median household income.

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State of Maryland by Median Household Income

Students More Than 20 Days Absent

Median Household Income low

middle

high

Students more than 20 days absent high

middle

low

– 45 – 55 – 65 – 75 +

– 6 – 12 – 18 – 24 +

in thousands of dollars

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by median household income with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This map proves our assumption that districts with a higher median household income had fewer students that missed more than 20 days. However, Prince George’s County is the exception again.

13

State of Maryland by Median Household Income

Dropout Rates by IDW Raster Image

Median Household Income low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

– 45 – 55 – 65 – 75 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

in thousands of dollars

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by median household income with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates. This map proves our assumption that the higher median household income the lower the dropout rate.

14

State of Maryland by Median Household Income

Attendance Rates by IDW Raster Image

Median Household Income low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 45 – 55 – 65 – 75 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in thousands of dollars

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by median household income with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on attendance rates. This map proves our assumption that the higher median household income the higher the attendance rate, with the exception of Montgomery County.

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State of Maryland by Ethnicity

Dropout Rates by Caucasian Population

Caucasian Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

– 50 – 70 – 80 – 90 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

in percent of population

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by Caucasian population with graduated dots based on dropout rates. This proves our assumption that the Caucasian population has a lower dropout percentage.

16

State of Maryland by Ethnicity

Attendance Rates by Caucasian Population

Caucasian Population low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 50 – 70 – 80 – 90 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in percent of population

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by Caucasian population with graduated dots based on attendance rates. This proves our assumption that the Caucasian population has a high attendance rate.

17

State of Maryland by Ethnicity

Dropout Rates by African-American Population

African-American Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

– 3 – 10 – 15 – 30 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

in percent of population

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by AfricanAmerican population with graduated dots based on dropout rates. This proves our assumption that the AfricanAmerican population has a higher dropout percentage.

18

State of Maryland by Ethnicity

Attendance Rates by African-American Population

African-American Population low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 3 – 10 – 15 – 30 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in percent of population

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by AfricanAmerican population with graduated dots based on dropout rates. This proves our assumption that the AfricanAmerican population has a lower attendance rate.

19

State of Maryland by Ethnicity

Dropout Rates by Asian-American Population

Asian-American Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

– 1 – 3 – 6 – 12 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

in percent of population

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by Asian-American population with graduated dots based on dropout rates. Focusing on Montgomery County, this map does not prove our assumption that the Asian-American population has a lower dropout percentage.

20

State of Maryland by Ethnicity

Attendance Rates by Asian-American Population

Asian-American Population low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 1 – 3 – 6 – 12 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in percent of population

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by Asian-American population with graduated dots based on dropout rates. This proves our assumption that attendance rates are higher in school districts with a larger Asian-American population.

21

State of Maryland by Ethnicity

Dropout Rates by Hispanic Population

Hispanic Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

– 1 – 3 – 6 – 12 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

in percent of population

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by Hispanic population with graduated dots based on dropout rates. Focusing on Montgomery County, this proves our assumption that the Hispanic population has a higher dropout percentage.

22

State of Maryland by Ethnicity

Attendance Rates by Hispanic Population

Hispanic Population low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 1 – 3 – 6 – 12 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in percent of population

in percent

M

aryland school districts are symbolized by Hispanic population with graduated dots based on attendance rates. Focusing on Montgomery County, this map does not prove our assumption that the Hispanic population has a lower attendance rate.

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County Focus Maps Introduction Baltimore County is focused on because of its proximity to Baltimore City and because it also has rural areas to the north.

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County Focus

Baltimore County

Dropout Rates, Attendance Rates & Students More Than 20 Days Absent Baltimore County

Baltimore City

Dropout Rates

Attendance Rates low middle high

Students more than 20 days absent

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

- 6 – 12 – 18 – 24 +

in percent

in percent

in percent

low

middle

high

low

middle

high

B

altimore County school districts are symbolized by dropout rates, attendance rates, and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. These maps prove our assumption that school districts closer to Baltimore City will have higher dropout rates, lower attendance rates, and more students absent more than 20 days.

25

County Focus

Baltimore County

Dropout & Attendance Rates by Median Household Income Baltimore County

Baltimore City

Median Household Income low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 45 – 55 – 65 – 75 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in thousands of dollars

in percent

in percent

B

altimore County school districts are symbolized by median household income with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and attendance rates. This map proves our assumption that the lower median household income the higher the dropout rate and lower the attendance rate.

26

County Focus

Baltimore County

Dropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Median Household Income Baltimore County

Baltimore City

Median Household Income low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Students more than 20 days absent high

middle

low

– 45 – 55 – 65 – 75 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in thousands of dollars

in percent

in percent

B

altimore County school districts are symbolized by median household income with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This map proves our assumption that the lower median household income the higher the dropout rate and more students absent more than 20 days.

27

County Focus

Baltimore County

Dropout & Attendance Rates by Caucasian Population Baltimore County

Baltimore City

Caucasian Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 50 – 70 – 80 – 90 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

B

altimore County school districts are symbolized by Caucasian population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This proves our assumption that the Caucasian population has a lower dropout rate and a higher attendance rate.

28

County Focus

Baltimore County

Dropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Caucasian Population Baltimore County

Baltimore City

Caucasian Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Students more than 20 days absent high

middle

low

– 50 – 70 – 80 – 90 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

- 6 – 12 – 18 – 24 +

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

B

altimore County school districts are symbolized by Caucasian population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This proves our assumption that the Caucasian population has a lower dropout rate and fewer students absent more than 20 days.

29

County Focus

Baltimore County

Dropout & Attendance Rates by African-American Population Baltimore County

Baltimore City

African-American Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 3 – 10 – 15 – 30 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

B

altimore County school districts are symbolized by African-American population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This proves our assumption that the African-American population has a higher dropout rate and a lower attendance rate.

30

County Focus

Baltimore County

Dropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by African-American Population Baltimore County

Baltimore City

African-American Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Students more than 20 days absent high

middle

low

– 3 – 10 – 15 – 30 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

- 6 – 12 – 18 – 24 +

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

B

altimore County school districts are symbolized by African-American population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This proves our assumption that the African-American population has a higher dropout rate and more students absent more than 20 days.

31

County Focus

Baltimore County

Dropout & Attendance Rates by Asian-American Population Baltimore County

Baltimore City

Asian-American Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 1 – 3 – 6 – 12 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

B

altimore County school districts are symbolized by Asian-American population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This proves our assumption that the Asian-American population has a lower dropout rate and a higher attendance rate. However, this is not a large enough statistical sample.

32

County Focus

Baltimore County

Dropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Asian-American Population Baltimore County

Baltimore City

Asian-American Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Students more than 20 days absent high

middle

low

– 1 – 3 – 6 – 12 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

- 6 – 12 – 18 – 24 +

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

B

altimore County school districts are symbolized by Asian-American population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This proves our assumption that the Asian-American population has a lower dropout rate and fewer students absent more than 20 days.

However, this is not a large enough statistical sample.

33

County Focus

Baltimore County

Dropout & Attendance Rates by Hispanic Population Baltimore County

Baltimore City

Hispanic Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 1 – 3 – 6 – 12 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

B

altimore County school districts are symbolized by Hispanic population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. There is not a large enough statistical sample to prove or disprove our assumptions.

34

County Focus

Baltimore County

Dropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Hispanic Population Baltimore County

Baltimore City

Hispanic Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Students more than 20 days absent high

middle

low

– 1 – 3 – 6 – 12 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

- 6 – 12 – 18 – 24 +

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

B

altimore County school districts are symbolized by Hispanic population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. There is not a large enough statistical sample to prove or disprove our assumptions.

35

County Comparison Maps Introduction Montgomery and Prince George’s County are their focus. These counties are a representative snapshot of the disparity in median household income as well as ethnic populations in Maryland.

36

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties

Dropout Rates, Attendance Rates & Students More Than 20 Days Absent Montgomery County

Washington, DC

Prince George’s County

Dropout Rates

Attendance Rates low middle high

Students more than 20 days absent

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

- 6 – 12 – 18 – 24 +

in percent

in percent

in percent

low

middle

high

low

middle

high

M

ontgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by dropout rates, attendance rates, and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts closer to Washington, DC, will have higher dropout rates, lower attendance rates, and more students absent more than 20 days.

37

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties Dropout & Attendance Rates by Median Household Income Montgomery County

Washington, DC

Prince George’s County

Median Household Income low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 45 – 55 – 65 – 75 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in thousands of dollars

in percent

in percent

M

ontgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by median household income with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts that have lower household income will have higher dropout and lower attendance rates.

38

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties

Dropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Median Household Income Montgomery County

Washington, DC

Prince George’s County

Median Household Income low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Students more than 20 days absent high

middle

low

– 45 – 55 – 65 – 75 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in thousands of dollars

in percent

in percent

M

ontgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by median household income with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and attendance rate. This set of maps confirms our assumptions that school districts that have lower household income will have higher dropout rates and more students absent more than twenty days.

39

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties Dropout & Attendance Rates by Caucasian Population Montgomery County

Washington, DC

Prince George’s County

Caucasian Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 50 – 70 – 80 – 90 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

M

ontgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by Caucasian population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This set of maps confirms our assumptions that school districts that have a higher Caucasian population will have lower dropout rates and higher attendance rates.

40

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties

Dropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Caucasian Population Montgomery County

Washington, DC

Prince George’s County

Caucasian Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Students more than 20 days absent high

middle

low

– 50 – 70 – 80 – 90 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

- 6 – 12 – 18 – 24 +

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

M

ontgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by Caucasian population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and attendance rate. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts that have a higher Caucasian population will have lower dropout rates and less students more than 20 days absent.

41

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties

Dropout & Attendance Rates by African-American Population Montgomery County

Washington, DC

Prince George’s County

African-American Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 3 – 10 – 15 – 30 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

M

ontgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by African-American population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts that have a higher African-American population will have a lower attendance rate, but not that there would be higher dropout rates.

42

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties

Dropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by African-American Population Montgomery County

Washington, DC

Prince George’s County

African-American Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Students more than 20 days absent high

middle

low

– 3 – 10 – 15 – 30 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

- 6 – 12 – 18 – 24 +

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

M

ontgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by African-American population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and attendance rate. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts that have a higher African-American population will have more students more than 20 days absent, but not that there would be higher dropout rates.

43

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties Dropout & Attendance Rates by Asian-American Population Montgomery County

Washington, DC

Prince George’s County

Asian-American Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 1 – 3 – 6 – 12 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

M

ontgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by Asian-American population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts that have a higher Asian-American population will have higher attendance rates, but not that there would be higher dropout rates.

44

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties

Dropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Asian-American Population Montgomery County

Washington, DC

Prince George’s County

Asian-American Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Students more than 20 days absent high

middle

low

– 1 – 3 – 6 – 12 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

- 6 – 12 – 18 – 24 +

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

M

ontgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by Asian-American population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and attendance rate. This set of maps does not effectively confirm our assumptions that school districts that have a higher Asian-American population will have lower dropout rates and less students more than 20 days absent.

45

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties Dropout & Attendance Rates by Hispanic Population Montgomery County

Washington, DC

Prince George’s County

Hispanic Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Attendance Rates high

middle

low

– 1 – 3 – 6 – 12 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

+ 95 – 93 – 91 – 89 -

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

M

ontgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by Hispanic population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and percentage of students more than 20 days absent. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts that have a higher Hispanic population will have higher dropout rates, but not that there would be lower attendance rates.

46

County Comparison

Montgomery & Prince George’s Counties

Dropout & Students More Than 20 Days Absent by Hispanic Population Montgomery County

Washington, DC

Prince George’s County

Hispanic Population low

middle

high

Dropout Rates low

middle

high

Students more than 20 days absent high

middle

low

– 1 – 3 – 6 – 12 +

– 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 +

- 6 – 12 – 18 – 24 +

in percent of population

in percent

in percent

M

ontgomery and Prince George’s County school districts are symbolized by Hispanic population with school data symbolized with graduated dots based on dropout rates and attendance rate. This set of maps confirms our assumption that school districts that have a higher Hispanic population will have higher dropout rates, but not that there would be more students more than 20 days absent.

47

Analysis Final Analysis There is a correlation between social demographics and attendance and dropout rates. However, our research revealed that some of our assumptions were not always accurate.

1. Median household Income

2. Ethnicity

3. Urban vs. Rural school districts

School districts with a higher median household income generally did have:

Certain ethnic populations generally did have:

School districts closer to Baltimore City and Washington, DC, did have higher dropout rates, lower attendance rates, and more students absent more than 20 days.

• higher attendance rates.

• less students absent more than 20 days.

• lower dropout rates.

- African-American One notable exception was in Prince George’s County where the dropout rate was not very high.

School districts with a lower median household income did have:

- Hispanic Their dropout rates were high, but their attendance rates were low, which did not follow our assumption.

• lower attendance rates.

• more students absent more than 20 days.

• higher dropout rates.

Some notable exceptions were found in western Maryland. Although their median household incomes were low, this did not have the assumed high dropout rates and low attendance rates. It was quite the opposite. However, eastern Maryland which shares some of the same median household incomes did prove our assumptions. Another exception is Montgomery County—the second wealthiest county in Maryland— where the dropout rates were much higher than we assumed. Overall, of the three sets of criteria, the results were the closest to our assumptions.

• higher dropout rates, lower attendance rates, and more students absent more than 20 days

• lower dropout rates, higher attendance rates, and less students absent more than 20 days

To the east and west of Baltimore City, and the north of Washington, DC, the correlation was very strong, but directly north of Baltimore and east of Washington, DC, the correlation was weaker.

There were also rural districts in northeast and eastern Maryland that shared similar statistical relationships.

Although our research very strongly supports our assumption, it is clear that this is not the sole criteria in the decisions of students to miss school or dropout.

- Caucasian There were no notable deviations from our assumptions.

- Asian-American Their attendance rates were high, but their dropout rates were high, too. This did not follow our assumption.

48

Analysis Recommendations

M

apping the data receivables, we discovered possible connections that our project constraints would not allow us to explore. The following is a list of seven recommendations for further research.

1. Include a layer containing the major highways.

You can trace the schools with the highest dropout rates and attendance rates from I-495 to I-95, around I-695 and further along I-95 to Delaware.

2. Instead of estimating the Ethnicity data based on an average of Block Group centroids, you can get race specific data on dropout rates and attendance rates in Maryland high schools. They are accurate to as low as 5 students, which won’t help with many smaller ethnicities.

7. Be careful while pursuing further research.

Counties add new high school districts often, thus out dating even year-old data. In addition, school districts can change from year to year even without a high school being added. Be sure to get the most up-to-date school districts you can. Go to Appendix I to see that even the SHA Points of Interest is not even completely up-to-date.

There are many factors that influence a student’s decision whether to dropout or not. These factors change with time, surroundings and cultural shifts.

3. Focus on each county instead of just Baltimore County. Each county has its own unique set of socio-economic data.

4. Compare many different counties for the same reason mentioned in our third recommendation.

5. Focus on Urban vs. Rural vs. Suburban settings.

We didn’t have the time to classify each district under on of those attributes. We were surprised to see such poverty in Rural districts, but not the dropout rates to match.

6. Use the HSAs as well as Teacher Certification data to explore some more potential correlations between dropout rates and attendance rates.

49

For More...

Notes

For Further Information

1. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, May 2006, The Silent Epidemic www.gatesfoundation.org/learning/Pages/2006-Highschool-drop-out-rate-survey.aspx 2. www.mdreportcard.org 3. Friedman Foundation, The High Cost of Maryland’s Dropout Rate www.friedmanfoundation.org/downloadFile.do?id=317 4. Ibid.

5. Washington Square Review, Spring 2005, In New York, Rising Teen Drop-out and Incarceration Rates journalism.nyu.edu/pubzone/wsr/article/rising_rates/ 6. The Boston Indicator’s Project, 2006, Attendance, dropout and expulsion rates by level, Boston and Massachusetts www.bostonindicators.org/indicatorsproject/education/indicator.aspx?id=4352&sc=566&sct=Children%20and%20Youth 7. UCLMRI, Oct. 2006, Tenth Grade Dropout Rates by Native Language, Race/Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Status www.lmri.ucsb.edu/publications/elfacts-7.pdf 8. www.mdreportcard.org 9. Ibid.

10. City of San Antonio, Glossary www.sanantonio.gov/HEALTH/pdf/healthprofiles/hp2005/ Glossary.doc 11. Office of Management and Budget, Whitehouse, Directive No. 15. www.whitehouse.gov/omb/fedreg_notice_15/ 12. U.S. Census Bureau, May 2003, Net Worth and Asset Ownership of Households: 1998 and 2000, page 3. www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/p70-88.pdf 13. ESRI Internet Glossary: www.esri.com 14. www.mdreportcard.org

For further information the following web sites are recommended:

Contact Information

• The Maryland Report Card www.mdreportcard.org • The Census Bureau www.census.gov • Maryland State Highway Administration www.sha.state.md.us • ESRI www.esri.com

Scott Jeffrey Program Director CCBC Geospatial Applications Program sjeffrey@ccbcmd.edu Ashley Buzzeo Instructor CCBC Geospatial Applications Program alesh@ccbcmd.edu Bill Fearrington Student CCBC’s GEOA 250: Adv. Geospatial Applications bill_fearrington@hotmail.com Louis Umerlik Student CCBC’s GEOA 250: Adv. Geospatial Applications louis_umerlik@yahoo.com

50

Appendix Appendix I Missing high schools from SHA Points of Interest List of missing schools by comparing the SHA points to our list of high schools.

• Dr. Henry Wise A. Jr. High School

• St. Michael’s Middle/High School

• Williamsport High School

Appendix II

Appendix III

How the school districts were acquired County Allegany Anne Arundel Baltimore Calvert Caroline Carroll Cecil Charles Dorchester Frederick Garrett Harford Howard Kent Montgomery Prince George’s Queen Anne’s Somerset St. Mary’s Talbot Washington Wicomico Worcester

Receiveda Generated/PDFb Generated/Thiessenc x x x x - x - - - x - x x x x - x - x - x x -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - x - - - - - - -

- x x x x x - x x x

Process for Creating Thiessen Polygons 1. Created Thiessen Polygons for counties who you could not obtain districts.

• In ArcMap, used the tool located in the Analysis.

Toolbox > Proximity > Create Thiessen Polygons.

• Used the School Locations as the centroids for the polygons.

2. Reprojected the data into NAD 1983 HARN, StatePlane Maryland, FIPS 1900 Feet 3. Stripped down the attributes of all of the shapefiles for each school district.

4. Merged the school district boundaries together.

• Took a look at how the align at the county boundaries.

5. Did a spatial join based on the schools points.

6. Symbolized the school district boundaries based on the MD report card data.

- Schools districts received from the county.

- Generated from districts in a PDF map. c - Generated by creating Thiessen polygons. a

b

51

Appendix Appendix IV

Washington

Cecil

Carroll

Harford Baltimore

Frederick

Baltimore City

Howard

Anne Arundel

Washington D.C.

Queen Anne's

Bay

Montgomery

This is a map with each of the counties labeled. This will be helpful when viewing the maps in the State of Maryland Maps section. Those maps are not labeled extensively because that would disrupt the readability of the data.

Kent

Prince George's

Calvert

Chesapeake

Allegany Garrett

Talbot Caroline

Charles St. Mary's

Dorchester

Wicomico

Somerset

Worcester

52