SARASOTA
Real Estate Report
Third Quarter 2024
Data based on Downtown Sarasota, West of Trail, Bird Key, Lido Key, and Longboat Key. All data compiled from Stellar MLS. Please contact LRMGroup@elliman.com for Sarasota County at-large trends or tailored market metrics.
Q3 2024
The number of expired and withdrawn listings is a key figure that we are examining right now. As buyer activity waned significantly over the second and third quarters, the number of properties removed from the market spiked, clearly shown in the 2024 graph segment. These surges are a marked contrast to prior years when eager buyers absorbed nearly all inventory rapidly. We expect far fewer expirations and withdrawals in the fourth and first quarters, but sellers must regard the risk that overpricing in current market conditions will stagnate buyer interest and prolong days on market.
LONG-TERM TREND - EXPIRED AND WITHDRAWN LISTINGS
Q3 2024
PRICE TRENDS YEAR-OVER-YEAR & LONG TERM
Price reductions remained a factor in Q3, as in prior periods this year. The average price for August was the lowest of the quarter and the lowest of any month in our market since August 2021, a major reflection of the downshift in buyer activity this summer, and affluent home buying in particular.
AVERAGE SALE PRICE BY MONTH - 5+ YEAR TREND
Average sale price for Q3 fell relative to the second quarter by 18 percent and relative to last year ’ s third quarter by 4.3 percent. This represents the lower buyer engagement during this year ’ s summer months Because of higher performance in the first quarter, the average annual sale price year-to-date is 15 percent higher than last years despite the downtrend on the quarter The graph at right offers a clear depiction of how significantly the early months of 2024 outperformed their prior year counterparts, and how markedly the trend shifted downward over the course of the year Long-term, the average Q3 price has risen 56 percent in the last five years
NOTE: this data reflects SF and townhome/condo transactions for the entirety of Sarasota County.
Year-to-date, the number of new listings is on par with last year ’ s benchmark. While listings have remained on par, the number of closings and pending contracts have fallen Year-over-year, the number of pending contracts dropped by 3 5 percent and the number of closings dropped by 8 5 percent
Price per square foot fell by nearly 11 percent relative to the same point in time last year. One contributing factor is that the drop-off in activity during the summer months contributed to price negotiation; another is that homes in elevated price brackets represented a larger share of withdrawn listings
The widened gap between the light blue background - average list price - and the dark blue bars - average sale priceillustrates that, in general, listings have been overpriced for the current market. We expect this delta to narrow during the peak winter season as more buyers engage, and more high-end sales transact without the prolonged days on market of Q3.
Q3 2024
The number of sales relative to the number of listings in any given period is the rate of absorption, a reliable indicator of buyer engagement in the market. Overall, demand remains high as our population growth continues, but buyer engagement, particularly in high price bands, fell off considerably this summer. The dark blue area representing the volume of active listings clearly tapered following the first quarter, reflecting both prospective seller hesitation to enter the market and the expiration or withdrawal of listings by sellers discouraged by sluggish summer activity. As we enter the high season, we expect upticks in both the dark blue (total inventory) and light blue (number of closings). SUPPLY & DEMAND
LISTINGS RELATIVE TO CLOSINGS BY MONTH - 2 YEAR TREND
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
Q3 2024
LONG-TERM LUXURY MARKET SHARE
Each color here represents a price band, with the darkest blue indicating sales under $1 million and each successive color representing higher brackets This graph illustrates the dispersion of prices across all sales in a given month Over time, the proportion of sales under $1 million has diminished as increasingly high-priced sales have gained market share Sales over $5 and $10 million are no longer rarities in the market and will continue to grow as a proportion of all transactions as ultra luxury new construction debuts
Q3 TRENDS - UNDER $1M and OVER $1M
BY MONTH - LAST 2 YEARS
Average days on market increased by 17 percent relative to Q3 of 2023, and by 5 percent relative to the second quarter of this year. Following the trend line on the far right, we expect days on market to decrease as we transition into the winter months and peak selling season
The number of Q3 sales under $1 million used to represent the majority of transactions Since 2022, that trend has inverted, with fewer and fewer sales under $1 million in the Sarasota market
BY MONTH - LAST 5 YEARS
The 5 year trend line for average days on market illustrates that our current average, while higher than what we ’ ve been used to in recent years, is actually lower than our historical benchmark The normalized market reflects strong seasonality, an important consideration in the timing of entering the market.
About this report: LRM Group engages an independent economist to conduct market research monthly and quarterly to offer specific and up-to-date insight to clients and professional peers. All data is compiled from Stellar MLS residential records. Contact LRMGroup@elliman.com for additional analysis or details on methodology.
