Forecasting the Future of Architecture

Forecasting the Future of Architecture The pace of change in our modern era can feel staggering at times: new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) are advancing faster than our capacity to understand and process their impacts. In the architecture industry, which has traditionally been slow to change, how will these new technologies impact the ways in which we work?

Katherine Peele, FAIA, LEED AP // Cheif Practice Officer Esperanza Harper, EDAC, Six Sigma GB // Innovation Leader ©LS3P 2023

Socio-economic scholar Carlota Perez has studied waves of technological advancement since the industrial revolution, and has identified five predictable phases: eruption (the new technology establishes a foothold), frenzy (speculation and uncertainty), turning point (alignment of real and speculative value, often in the form of a bubble bursting), synergy (steady growth and implementation), and maturity (less dramatic innovation but continuous refinements in the technology). Will AI follow this predictable pattern? How will it impact the profession of architecture? What do the futurists have to say about it?

We sat down with LS3P’s Chief Practice Officer Katherine Peele, FAIA, and Associate Principal Esperanza Harper, EDAC, Six Sigma GB, to discuss innovation, architecture, and how evolving technologies can become assets rather than threats to the profession.

What will working WITH these new technologies look like in our daily practice?

Katherine Peele: Architectural services have long seemed out of reach to a lot of people; a common perception is that architect-designed spaces are unaffordable, and that the process of working with an architect is opaque. Architects are currently designing just a small percentage of what actually gets built, which is a shame because we have the opportunity to help solve huge societal problems through thoughtful, inclusive, sustainable design. At the very least, embracing new technologies may help us move away from the very bespoke method of designing one building at a time. If we can standardize routine and repetitive components, we can become much more efficient in our design process, and we can spend more time focused on designing the most high-impact spaces in a project.

So what IS next for our industry? What do the futurists say?

Esperanza Harper: Agreed! Building and construction methods are getting more

Katherine Peele: We’re at such an interesting time for the profession. Over the course

and stricter performance requirements for things like sustainability, comfort, and cost.

of my career I’ve seen how technology has impacted the efficiency and speed of the work we do, and that efficiency has substantial benefits for our clients and for those of us who practice architecture. That said, there are many who would argue that the fundamental process of designing and constructing buildings has not really changed in the last 100 years.

complicated. We have more and more demanding production systems, schedules, Instead of working longer hours, we can tap into our AI resources to help us handle the complexity, and we can become specialists in the design elements which require our architectural expertise. This paradigm does start to change our idea of what an architect does, though. Architects will become software designers instead of just building designers, and we’ll be selling our algorithms in addition to our design ideas.

I heard Daniel Susskind, one of the authors of The Future of the Professions (along with his father Richard), speak on this topic at the Aspire conference last fall, and he challenged us to think differently about how technology will impact the profession.

Meet the Contributors

Technology doesn’t – and shouldn’t – just copy the way humans are performing tasks.

Rather, we should harness technology to do the things that are slowing us down, and free designers up to do the creative, human centered tasks we do best.

Esperanza Harper: No doubt technology will continue to be the rising star in our future as a profession. Where it can take us really depends on our relationship with technology: do we see it as our friend, or foe? Asset, or threat? To succeed in this new technological climate, we need to start thinking of AI not as a threat to the industry, but as our new design partner. Algorithms will serve a range of tasks in the design process, but they will not take over the entire process - human insight and expertise will definitely still be needed. We can introduce targeted automation as a tool for replacing repetitive design labor, and we can use algorithms as collaborators to augment the unique intelligence of human designers.

In Katherine’s 31 years with the firm, she has managed over $1 billion worth of construction, with projects ranging from educational to workplace and community focuses. Her current role as Chief Practice Officer includes oversight of design excellence and quality, growth of practice expertise, and innovation.

As LS3P’s firmwide Innovation Leader, Espy is a Six Sigma Green Belt who is highly skilled at data analytics, lean design principles, and design thinking in service to leading-edge environments.

She is well-versed in using her strategic insight to elevate process and product, and is a frequent speaker at national conferences.

Do you see these new technologies beginning to change the agency of the architect and our instruments of service?

Are you optimistic about where AI can take us?

Nervous? Or both?

Katherine Peele: I do. The role of the architect is already evolving. For example,

Katherine Peele: One clear message from the Susskinds’ book is that none of the

we’re currently collaborating with the global real estate company Greystar to design

strategies for avoidance (hoping to retire before the change arrives, pretending

volumetric models being produced in a new modular factory in Pennsylvania. These

it’s not happening, or fighting to preserve traditional ways of practicing) are viable.

models are being used to produce attainable housing units – completed down to the

Technological innovations are already impacting the work we do, and the disruptions

outlets, plumbing, and appliances – in a controlled factory setting with minimal waste

to the status quo are already here. The exciting part of this disruption, however, is the

and maximum efficiency. These units will be assembled onsite to form attractive,

opportunity for architects to harness these tools to create real and positive societal

affordable neighborhoods which help to provide attainable housing for the community.

impacts. If we as an industry have been under-performing relative to our potential to

Instead of a construction document set with many different floor plans, our primary

bring about transformation in the built environment, it’s also true that we are uniquely

instrument of service is the volumetric model embedded with our best knowledge of

positioned to do so now.

multifamily design components. This efficiency benefits the client, the tenants, and – not least- our firm.

Esperanza Harper: AI comes with tremendous promise, but it looks brightest when it helps us to see ourselves as capable of solving “wicked problems” in design. Tech will

Esperanza Harper: There is still so much untapped potential with BIM technology.

outperform us in modernization and manufacturing, but it will also allow us to develop

Beyond just delivering the initial design, we have the potential to raise the value of

materials that are readily available, sustainable, cost effective, easy to assemble, and

the architect by expanding our services through the life of the building. When we

also beautiful. We can think beyond designing repetitive components to designing

create digital twins, or virtual representations, of our buildings, we can use them to

systems that benefit entire communities. The objects we build are proof of our values

digitally model performance, identify inefficiencies, and design solutions to improve

and who we strive to be; it’s time to use advances in technology to influence better

the physical counterpart. But unlike a simulation, the digital twin can start to model

outcomes, present the public with better alternatives, and design the future that we

real-world assets. We can upfit buildings with sensors to capture more granular data in

want to create together.

real time on building performance. We can pair this data with AI and machine learning to forecast more accurately what outcomes will be in our built environment; the digital twin becomes a real-time database of the building’s ecosystem.

To do this effectively, of course, data mastery will be a must. The most competitive firms will be the ones with the skills to analyze, organize, and extract value from this new resource, which is a new competency for most of us. We have to start thinking not only in terms of modeling 3D geometry, but also in terms of modeling time, budget, sustainability, and operations over the life of the project.