No. 8 - December 2016
MONTHLY
The online edition.
PASS-ed Events
Hong Kong: 2017
Climate Change
Predictions
Charity Dinner, Service, Discussion Forum
What lies ahead of us in the new year?
What will happen to green talks in 2017?
Changes all around the world to come
contents 03 04 06 08 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Editor’s Note PASS-ed Events Charity Dinner 2016 Merry Christmas, Happy Grannies! Christmas Forum Review: Believe Till 2048 Christmas Forum Review: Generations Looking Back and Looking Forward Smog With A Chance of Clear Skies? 香港－2016的政治現實及前景 Who’s Caring For The World? 2017 Predictions Around the World in 365 Days
EDITORIAL Hi Readers! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! This month, LSESU HKPASS has been very busy with three major events - our annual Charity Dinner, a service session with Happy Grannies, and our annual Christmas Discussion Forum. We hope you enjoyed all these events - we have much more planned for next term, so do get involved! As the year draws to a close, this issue’s theme is very aptly titled “Looking Back and Looking Forward”. Reflecting on the happenings of 2016 and attempting to predict the directions of 2017, our articles this month should prove to be quite interesting. As always, we are accepting submissions from anyone on anything at lsesusochkpass@gmail.com, so make your voice heard! Janice Leung
(Publications Officer 2016-17)
Pass-ed Events December This month, we held our Annual Charity Dinner, hosted for the benefit of our charity partner this year, Happy Grannies. We were very honoured to have had Mr. Rimsky Yuen and Ms. Sindy Chow join us for the evening as our keynote speakers. We also had our annual Christmas Service, when a group of our subcommittee members visited elderly living alone, bringing Christmas joy and warmth to their solitary lives for a day. The Christmas Discussion Forum was also held this month, hosted jointly by the London 4U HKPASS. Titled “The Way Ahead: Hong Kongers’ Identity, ‘Autonomy’ & ‘Independence”, the Forum focused on the link between identity and political action. With the Hon. Priscilla Leung Mei-fun, Dr. Brian Fong Chi-hang and Mr. Joshua Wong joining us, the event proved to be a very thought-provoking one.
The Annual Charity Dinner 2016 took place in Club Lusitano, overlooking the streets of Central. This was a memorable occasion, both commencing the Mentorship Programme 2016 and also fundraising for our Charity Partner, Happy Grannies. The Hong Kong Mentorship Programme aims to inspire students by fostering interaction with influential and prominent figures in Hong Kong. This dinner was a festive occasion for mentors and mentees to meet prior to their formal Mentorship Programme meetings. Over a glass of bubbly champagne, both mentors and mentees had a valuable opportunity to get to know each other. We are very thankful for all the mentors who joined us, and also for other non-mentor guests who spent the night with us and shared with us their experience and success. This year, our first guest speaker of the night was the current Secretary for Justice of Hong Kong, Mr Rimsky Yuen, SC. Mr Yuen gave a speech on ‘Legal Education in the Changing World’, which gave us invaluable insight into how the world was changing, and reminded us the challenges we faced, particularly for law students. He also enlightened all students of the importance of adapting our skill sets because the demands of society vary over the years. Our second guest speaker of the night was Ms Sindy Chow, founder and CEO of Happy Grannies. Happy Grannies is a non-profit social enterprise established in 2008 which targets single elders in need in Hong Kong. Ms Chow brought along one of her grannies, 陳伯, who showed us his amazing paintings, and demonstrated a strong spirit despite his age. We were all very impressed by his positivity and energy. The highlight of the dinner was our raffle ticket draw, with the head prize as IPad Mini. Accompanied by our dressed-up ‘Santa’, we had more rounds of raffle draws than expected since our ‘lucky’ guests recycled their prizes to the floor. Ms Sindy Chow, who won a UA Cinema Gift Voucher, placed it out for bidding which closed at $1000 HKD. It was great to see so many of us who were very generous in supporting such a meaningful cause. The Charity Dinner ended on a cheerful and positive note, and once again we thank you all who have joined us on the night and we hope to see you next year.
27 Dec, 2016 Christine Chan
Merry Christmas, Happy Grannies! On the 19th of December, a group of subcommittee members from the Social Service division visited elderly living alone on a trip organised by our charity partner, Happy Grannies. Here are their insights on their visits!
The visit was wonderfully enlightening and has deepened my understanding of Hong Kong. The elderly issue has always been a prominent one in the city and I feel like I now know more about it after this visit. Though in the bustle and hustle of Central, the two grannies I visited live in solitude and below average quality housing. The contrast between the prosperous facade of the business district and the decayed interior heightens the irony even further. I find their loneliness particularly sad as they worked so hard all their lives to provide for the young (one of them is a 錏� without kids) but in the end these children refused even to visit them once in a while. I also find their fortitude against poverty and illness extremely inspiring: managing her own house from cleaning to cooking at the age of 93 is certainly a remarkable achievement.
This prompts me to question my past attitude towards the elderly I know: have I unknowingly patronised them in the past, forbidding them to do things they like and find meaningful? Have I belittled their ability and strength? Have I rudely applied my own standards on them without listening to their perspectives? Would I not want to be treated with respect when I am old? Â I do not have the answers to these questions yet, but I feel like I have started to put myself in the elderly's shoes. This visit, although very brief, has truly given me new insights. Karen Lee
When asked about the impression of Hong Kong, I am sure that most people would come up with the delicious cuisine, crowded shopping centres or the gorgeous view along the Victoria Harbour. But how many would have remembered that behind all those skyscrapers live some lonely elderly who desperately need our help and care? This visit gave us the precious chance to take a break from our studies and learn more about our beloved city. We visited two elderly, and the visit to Mr. Yuen’s home was particularly depressing. Mr Yuen lives in a sub-divided flat in Sheung Wan and is supported by the CSSA Scheme. The room is so small and cramped that it is not possible for the three of us visiting to fit in, and the environment is dark, moist and dirty. Both of the elderly do not have any children, but Mr. Yuen has three nephews, of which two are doctors and the last a teacher.
However, none of them are willing to stop by and pay a visit or provide any kind of support to their uncle. While it would be easy to point fingers as their closest family for neglecting their elders, at the same time we cannot disregard the role of the government in this issue. The Hong Kong community has been divided more than ever in recent years. Political polarity in society has made governance challenging. People like Mr Yuen and other elderly suffer as a result. With a new Chief Executive elected next year, would the issues like retirement protection be addressed more often? Would the livelihood of the elderly and the needy be improved? Only time can tell. What we should do now is to give our love and care to our loved ones and make them our “Happy Grannies”! Caius Mok
This service trip was one of the highlights of my Christmas break. I wasn’t expecting to be able to continue doing community service regularly after moving to London for studies. I am really grateful that I participated in this event, and to know in my community there are still many Hong Kong teenagers who care about the local minorities. On this outing we were split into groups of 3 to visit elderlies who live alone in Sheung Wan. My group visited 2 grandpas. We brought them gifts and chatted with them. While this was not a new experience for me, I was quite surprised that both of them were very knowledgable about the world. I still remember one of them could speak fluent English and questioned us about the history of the Soviet Union. His exposure to world politics really impressed me, and this further reminded me not to underestimate the elderly. We should not stereotype that grannies are all weak, old and hard to talk to; they are very interesting people, they are unique, and there is a lot to learn from them. Many volunteers think that service is a one way thing, but as mentioned by the founder of Happy Grannies, these visits are actually two way. We also get something from the elderly. Nowadays, many people choose to volunteer in far places like Cambodia or African countries. This trip reminded me that in the place that in our very own home there are a lot of people in need. Just like the elderly we visited, they do not need much from us. What makes them happy is not gifts (I still remember one of the elderly insisting on giving back money for the gifts), but is instead our company. Why do we care more about other places, before making an effort to make our own community better? This trip has made me reflect a lot, and I cannot wait for my next visit. Damian Wu
“ ” 重塑前路
香港人的身分認同、「自主」及「獨立」
THE WAY AHEAD
Hongkongers’ Identity, ‘Autonomy’ & ‘Independence’
This year’s Annual Christmas Discussion Forum focused on the link between a growing Hong Kong ‘national’ consciousness and recent political movements. Hosted by the London 4U PASS, we were fortunate enough to welcome the Hon. Priscilla Leung Mei-fun, Dr. Brian Fong Chi-hang, and Mr. Joshua Wong to join us for the afternoon. With three distinctly separate political stances regarding the future of Hong Kong and the path towards such a future, the discussion forum proved to be an insightful and provoking one. Here are two opinion pieces on the forum!
The Forum started from a relatively milder topic: identity. With that topic, I began to realise that the most common four options of identity available to someone living in Hong Kong – 香港人, 香港的中國人, 中國的香港人, 中國人 – are not mutually exclusive. Although the recognition of being a Hong Konger has risen significantly in recent years, we should still be open to other options and refrain from boxing ourselves into a ‘sole’ correct answer when it comes to identity. While most people at the event picked “Hong Konger”, some people realizing this non-exclusivity also picked other options, such as “Hong Kong Chinese” and “Chinese Hong Konger”. I believe that recognition of the possibility of a multilayered identity will help us explain to others and ourselves who or what we are.
Another point that I would like to highlight on the topic of identity would be the ambiguity surrounding what “Chinese” means to us. “Chinese” may refer to 中國人, including acceptance of the current political regime on the mainland as part of our identity, but it can also mean 中華民族, 華夏子孫, 漢人, which embraces our common bloodline and culture but does not necessarily include such an implicit acceptance of the PRC. Another division in the understanding of “Chinese” identity is on legal grounds. We may recognize ourselves as Chinese by ethnicity, but disagree that we are citizens of the PRC so long as it is ruled only by the Chinese Communist Party. However, in the case of Hong Kong, our SAR passport’s nationality column only allows Chinese to be our nationality, despite our ideals of taking “Hong Konger” as our nationality. Nevertheless, I will still use the social term Hong Konger to introduce myself, followed with the legal identity of “Chinese” as our passport states us to be.
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The next topic the Forum came to was considerably more controversial: self-determination. Some argue that a high degree of autonomy implies that we have the right of self-determination; on the other hand, the CCP believes that ‘self-determination’ is just a disguise for ‘independence’, a taboo topic. Reflecting on the arguments from each of the guests on the prospect and desirability self-determination, I think it represents an ideal state for the pan-democrats of Hong Kong’s future, but the poor use of the term ‘self-determination’, specifically its connotations of decolonization and independence, caused the CCP to interpret it as a highly hostile movement. I believe self-determination is inevitable, but how much we self-determine is the real question: whether we should become just another autonomous region in the PRC like Guangxi, or gaining even more control over the administration of Hong Kong such as determining the quota for one-way permits? I agree with Dr. Fong: the process of liberalization will be long, and we have to be especially patient as we are facing the largest authoritarian regime in the world. Self-determination, not in the sense of decolonization and independence, but in the sense of deciding the direction of Hong Kong more broadly, is an option under the guarantee of a high degree of autonomy in the Basic Law. I believe there is room for negotiation to place for more ‘self-determination’ in our political system reform.
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The process of liberalization will be long, and we must be especially patient. Lastly, I found that even though the guests invited are across the political spectrum, there was more common ground than I had expected. It is obvious that everyone wants a more democratic political system for Hong Kong. While there are vastly different ways of advocating and promoting democracy, from radical ideas such as independence and conservative ways such as maintaining the status quo, I hope that more common ground can be discovered and a trustworthy middleman can represent both sides in negotiations with the mainland. Although it may be a hopeless venture to bridge the gap between us and the mainland, or a futile effort to push against the world’s ‘largest authoritarian regime’, I believe a well-played negotiation can benefit both sides in the future.
29 Dec, 2016 Linus Cheung
HAVE FAITH TILL 2048
“
GENERATION
After listening to all three guests’ individual speeches and the discussion amongst themselves, I found their views to be actually quite similar, despite how divergent as their views appear in the press or in the popular imagination. Their ideals may be different, their end goals may be different, their methods may be different, but in the end they all wish for Hong Kong to become a ‘better’ place. While the specific meaning of ‘better’ differs, I felt that all three guests believe in the development of a representative administration distinct from that of the PRC, maintaining Hong Kong’s high level of autonomy and way of life. But why then, if their wishes for Hong Kong are similar, is it so difficult to reach a consensus on what Hong Kong should do? What I found from the Forum was the profound impact of circumstance. Being at a certain time and place, experiencing certain events firsthand, has most likely affected each generation’s definition of ‘better’. The baby boomer generation was one that gained the most from their circumstances. One Country Two Systems established Hong Kong as a trusted economic gateway for a state trying to find its foothold in a capitalist world. It makes sense to not want to rock the boat, since the system brought job opportunities, capital creation and economic growth to Hong Kong, benefiting those who came of age in the transitioning years. In addition, this generation saw firsthand the colonial system and the utter lack of freedom that came with it, Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in China, and the difficult negotiations for the handover – in Dr. Leung’s eyes, the handover was a release
from colonial confines and a chance to develop a civil society against a backdrop of a rapidly developing China. While not all of her generation agrees with this viewpoint, it is nonetheless a very valid position.To her, Occupy Central and the Umbrella Movement, to say nothing of the recent independence movement, were threats to Hong Kong’s hard-won autonomy and representation. On the other hand, the 90s generation has a very different outlook on what One Country Two Systems means, what it has brought for them and subsequently where Hong Kong should go from now. Unlike the baby boomer generation, this generation has never known firsthand a Hong Kong without One Country Two Systems. To them, the prejudice and lack of freedom under colonial rule and the uncertainty surrounding the handover are but stories of days gone by. Rather, what they know is that One Country Two Systems has failed them in more ways than it has benefited them. From technicalities such as limitations on the right to vote for their leaders, to personal issues such as the Basic Law’s enforcement of Hong Kong’s official identity as an ‘inalienable part of the People’s Republic of China’ which they feel no resonance with, One Country Two Systems has in certain respects acted as shackles that stop Hong Kong from moving forward. As this generation comes of age, they face a shrinking job market, a government that appears to not want to listen to their concerns, and the growing presence of Big Brother. As the 2047 deadline looms over their heads, incremental change is seen to threaten their future careers and personal way of life.
NS
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Dec 29, 2016 Janice Leung
Being at a certain time and place, experiencing certain events firsthand, has most likely affected each generation’s definition of ‘better’.
So while the motivation to make Hong Kong ‘better’ is the same, the starting point of ‘the way ahead’ is different for the two generations. For the baby boomers, the starting point is absolute zero – no vote, no elected officials, no representation whatsoever. For ours, the starting point is substantially higher on the democratic scale – universal suffrage for part of our legislature, some voting rights for the rest of it, and a mechanism for electing our leader. The speed at which to proceed on ‘the way forward’ is thus different. For the baby boomers, an incremental approach is perfectly acceptable and even desired because we could lose what we already have. For our generation, an incremental approach is much too slow because we feel like we do not have the time to secure our own futures. The end goal of ‘the way forward’ will therefore also be different. While baby boomers may feel as if the status quo is enough because we have already gained so much, our generation feels as if we are stagnating because we are not gaining any more. I have no solutions to offer on how to bridge the generation gap – dialogue is of course important, but that is a scarce commodity in Hong Kong’s charged political climate. I hope, however, that mutual respect of each other’s fears and desires will be able to prevail over blaming each other for Hong Kong’s current political predicament, and provide a starting block on which fruitful discussion on Hong Kong’s ‘way ahead’ can finally begin.
重塑前路
香港人的身分認同、「自主」及「獨立」
THE WAY AHEAD
Hongkongers’ Identity, ‘Autonomy’ & ‘Independence’
Looking back... ...and looking forward As 2016 comes to a close, it’s time to look back on all the things that have happened this year: the good, the bad, and the ugly. From local news like the Legislative Council election and all of its repercussions, to international issues like Brexit, the US Presidential election and worsening climate change, 2016 has been a year characterised by drama. 2017 will then most likely be a year of consolidation - as political leadership changes hands all over the world, new governments will now have to reestablish an equilibrium amidst a haze of confusion and ambiguity. Our articles this month range from local to international. The first two articles look at the prospects of China-HK relations as we move towards the Chief Executive election next year. The third article takes a look at climate change - frequently mentioned but largely invisible in regular life and how efforts to combat global warming will move with a potential US retreat from green leadership. The fourth is a list of predictions for the coming year, from Brexit to Trump to Freshers Week. The final article is a roundup of the major international issues facing global leadership in the coming year.
HONG KONG
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Smog With A Chance of Clear Skies?
The past year has been an eventful one for Hong Kong politically: the civil unrest in Mong Kok, the Legislative Council elections (and subsequent by-election) and the interpretation of the Basic Law by the NPCSC. It appears that 2017 will continue to keep us on the edge of our seats as we all watch with bated breath the events that will soon unfold. In this piece I shall attempt to identify some of the basic reasons that have magnified the dissatisfaction of Hong Kong people towards Mainland China and propose some solutions. I would propose the first reason to be a common failure by the general public to acknowledge the difference in China and Hong Kong’s legal systems. Hong Kong has been following the common law system since the days of British colonial rule, whereas China uses the civil law system. Therefore, the way China understands things to work would inevitably be different from Hong Kong. China believes in direct intervention in all the small details using a code, whereas Hong Kong prefers to work things out by using a combination of statutory law and case law. One crucial point is that in the absence of the principle of one-party rule, the separation of the three powers (executive, judicial and legislature) is a real and valued doctrine currently being implemented in Hong Kong. It is especially important that judicial independence be protected in Hong Kong because without it, it would be difficult for rule of law to exist. Instead, Hong Kong would be ruled by men and it would be easy in these circumstances for tyranny to occur. I believe that it is important for China to acknowledge the fact that under the “One Country, Two Systems” principle, actions deemed necessary to be undertaken by them may not be the case in Hong Kong, and conversely Hong Kong needs to respect the differing views of China. The difference in circumstances in China and Hong Kong mean that the policies applicable in one region cannot be copied and pasted into the other region, and it is up to the two sides to communicate and accept their differences.
My proposed second reason would be the portrayal of events by the media. As the tension between Hong Kong and China intensified, different media outlets began to take up different stances. There remain very few media outlets that remain neutral in their reporting of events. Most media outlets are widely known, or at least suspected of being biased towards a certain stance. This resulted in people only following and reading articles from the media outlet that suited their own views, leading to a fragmented and lopsided view of the situation in Hong Kong. It should be strongly encouraged that people should read from various sources of media outlets before forming their own opinion on matters. As the Chief Executive election looms near, rumours begin to fill the air as potential candidates begin to step forward and make their presence. It would not be wrong to say that one of the biggest New Year’s resolutions of Hong Kongers is to elect a Chief Executive who truly has our best interests in mind, and will stand firm and safeguard the fragile relationship between Hong Kong and Mainland China. We may not know for certain what 2017 will bring us, but let us hope that the figurative smog that obscures the future of Hong Kong (and also the literal smog in Beijing) will clear up sooner or later.
29 Dec, 2016 Jennifer Lau
香港
2016的政治現實及
及前景
時光荏苒，2016年眨眼間來到了尾聲。過去一年或大或 小的政治議題，如立法會選舉以及宣誓風波，都反映著 社會愈加分裂的局面。國際間的政治動盪好像也不遑多 讓，美國的總統選舉，英國脫毆，以及韓國的崔順實干 政風波，都令人大跌眼鏡。不論我們是否討厭政治，都 不可否認政治與生活的每一個細節息息相關，讓我們一 起回顧2016年香港重要的政治發展。 2016年頭發生的「銅鑼灣書店事件」紛擾多時，當中內 地「跨境執法」之嫌加劇了市民對一國兩制名存實亡的 疑慮。農曆新年間的「旺角騷亂」中，特區政府首次將 大型公眾集會定性為「暴亂」。這場「騷亂」中參與者 除了捍衛小販的利益，更深層次地反映出市民積累已深 的怨懟，爲2016年紛紛擾擾的政治局面揭開序幕。 無庸置疑地，近年香港市民變得更熱衷於社會議題。 2016年的立法會選舉多達200萬人投票，投票率達58% ，創歷屆新高。民選議員有著年輕化的趨勢，如香港眾 志羅冠聰， 以及其後喪失議員資格的青年新政游蕙禎和 梁頌恆。傳統民主派不少資深的議員更「落馬」，蜀中 無大將，反映著市民求變心切的社會現實。 自人大8.31的決定及政改方案不獲通過後，市民與政府 之間的信任每況愈下，香港回歸以來第五次的釋法打擊 了市民對司法獨立的信心，也反映了中央政府對香港市 民的不信任，形成了雙方互相猜忌的惡性循環。所謂上 行下效，官民之間勢成水火絕對不利香港的民生與經濟 發展。另外，老一輩與年輕人普遍出現的分歧漸漸擴大 。年輕人血氣方剛，對社會具有抱負十分合理，但要避 免只是隨波逐流地跟隨主流媒體的意見；反應廣納資訊 ，對持相反意見的人保持開放的態度，了解他們不盡相 同的觀點與角度。同樣地，老一輩也應多了解年輕人的 出發點。時日已變，現今的年輕人生活大多富足，所追 求的自然不止三餐溫飽，更多的是對社會的期盼。假若 長輩只懂得站在高地一味批評年輕人不懂世態的艱難， 不珍惜一切「得來不易的安定」，只會淪為坐井觀天， 故步自封的人。他們活在過去，未能了解時移世易下的 新趨勢及需求，最終兩代人將徑自走遠。雖然現屆的政 府不會在任內重啓政改，但香港的政制發展，包括回歸 五十年後的憲制發展，以及民主進程，仍然是普羅大眾 十分關注的問題，也是下屆政府當務之急的政治議題， 值得我們深思。 Dec 30, 2016 Joyce Chan
Levuka, Fiji (Photo Credits: Linus Cheung)
Who’s Caring For The World?
29 Dec, 2016 Linus Cheung
How much longer will we be able to see these sights?
“2016 will be the hottest year on record, UN says.” Oh really?
So what can we expect in the coming year? Not much change, it seems.
”2016 locked into being hottest year on record, NASA says.” Uh oh. Considering how the human race is just a miniscule proportion of the Earth’s entire ecosystem yet has such a massive impact on its structure and function, and how much we humans rely on the environment in our day to day lives, I believe that the important changes in the environment should be treated as some of the most significant events this year. Earlier this year in May, 5 Pacific islands had already been lost to rising sea levels. Although it has been long predicted that numerous islands would be lost to this way, there has never been such solid proof of the permanent disastrous impact of climate change and global warming. Not only have 5 islands in the Solomon Islands been lost entirely, six more islands are now critically threatened, with entire villages destroyed and people forced to relocate in 2 of the 6 islands. The warning signs have never been so obvious and urgent. As a student from Hong Kong, a coastal city incorporating several islands, this should remind us that we are not invulnerable to climate change – we may not be in immediate danger of completely disappearing, but one day we may be the next climate change refugees if the current trend persists. Moving on to the poles, there was more heartbreaking news: the total loss of sea ice off the coast of Antarctica and the Arctic has now exceeded the total area of India – more than 3.76 million sq. kilometres. This was followed by a record high temperature of 20oC above average in parts of the Arctic, which made 2016 the hottest year on record. While we in Hong Kong are experiencing a few degrees’ rise in temperature, the much greater temperature increase at the poles would lead to a devastating impact on the world’s ecosystem by the rapid melting of sea ice. Can we afford to lose another two, three India’s worth of sea ice? We might as well become one of the submerged islands if we turn a blind eye to climate change.
While the president-elect of the US has already been causing great uncertainty in trade and diplomacy, he has also decided to against the consensus of the science community (and general common sense) on the very real existence and dangers of climate change. He appointed several climate change deniers and prominent figures in the oil and gas industries to his cabinet, including Scott Pruitt who sued the Environmental Protection Agency multiple times when he was the attorney general of Oklahoma. His agenda of bringing back millions of jobs in the energy industry (however realistic that may be) also pushes the US back to the old ways of generating energy through unsustainable methods like burning fossil fuels, rather than following the global trend of developing greener energy. Another regression to be expected from the Trump administration is the US’s withdrawal from the Paris agreement to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in an attempt to slow climate change. Whether the Paris agreement will actually produce any significant change in climate change trends is highly debated, but the rejection of the very principle of the agreement – multilateral, international cooperation for the benefit of the future generations of humanity – rings many warning bells. Despite Obama’s efforts in accelerating the US’s commitment to slowing down climate change, including his recent act in permanently banning drillings in the Arctic, the US’s withdrawal from green leadership greatly increases the chances of other economic powerhouses, such as China (not exactly the poster child of green energy), leading environmental protection talks. This may lead towards looser international obligations towards sustainability, and industrialising countries are likely take advantage of such agreements. In the end, there is only one Earth, and we all have a responsibility towards this planet. There are people who put the blame on others and deny their responsibility, but I hope that everyone – from world leaders to the average person like you and me – understands that we have a stake in the health of our planet, and we must take action now.
First Harambe, then David Bowie, now Carrie Fischer. 2016 has been a year of tragic celebrity deaths. And also Trump and Brexit, don’t forget that. In fact, so much absurdity happened in the last year that even Nostradamus (or election pundits) wouldn't have imagined how it all turned out. That being said, let me try my hand at predicting what 2017 has in store for us.
brexit
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I’m sure you’ve all heard of the Article 50 case, especially fellow law students that turn up to public law lectures. I’m going to call it here and say that the UK government will lose, by and 11-0 margin, based off something I read somewhere sometime (hurrah for post-truth predictions). If that actually happens I (might) write an article about it.
e r p 7 1
OTHER Park Geun-Hye is going to be just another Rousseff (gone before Chinese New Year if I have to take a guess). Marine Le Pen wins the French elections, Frexit scheduled for mid-2018. Syria stays the same with a never ending tug-of-war in taking control of key cities. Freshers in LSE (most probably) will have to take mandatory consent workshops before allowed on Fresher’s week.
TRUMP Probably not going to get impeached. His cabinet picks are shaping up to look more like standard(ish) Republican so its not the end of the world yet. I’d say Trump is going to be the figure head meeting celebrities/world leaders all around the world while Pence just quietly takes over the world behind the scenes. One thing to note is that his cabinet is full of climate change deniers, which might be a tad terrible for the environment. This has an additional knock-on effect of reducing the clout US has when negotiating and brokering environment related deals with other countries. Although at the rate things are going climate change is probably the least of our concerns for now‌
ons
edict i
ce election Jasper Tsang is probably going to win. Business as usual. (Nothing to do with him being my HKMP mentor. Really. Just a gut-feeling.)
Dec 30, 2016 Adrian To
As 2016 comes to an en shrouded in uncertainty. nowhere near subsiding appeared in Europe and of leadership changes a world.
In the Middle East, the w several attempts at rapp the fundamental disagre role in any peace proces once Syria’s largest city, war and civilian casualtie world’s priority for the co peace in Syria and stop require close regional an
Around the World In 365 Days
European politics next y by the Brexit negotiation invoke Article 50 of the T be to reach an agreeme of future EU-UK relation While much remains unc UK wants to retain acces it will have to accept the free movement of worke out, if they come about see.
Moreover, whether othe example and whether th be seen. Next year, seve general elections, and th populist movements wil Front National’s Marine in/out referendum on Fr should she be elected a to lose the UK is bad en member state would be ground, Angela Merkel’s the refugee and the pro EU leadership would spe Merkel is still widely beli federal elections next fa more likely Merkel bows anybody’s guess.
nd, the global outlook for 2017 is . Tensions in the Middle East are g, populist movements have d the United States, and a number are due to happen around the
war in Syria continues despite prochement, which were marred by eement about al-Assad’s future ss or political transition. Aleppo, is now utterly devastated by the es are climbing by the day. The oming year must be to achieve senseless bloodshed, which will nd international cooperation.
year, meanwhile, will be consumed ns. In March, the UK will likely Treaty of Lisbon. The challenge will ent that guarantees the wellbeing ns in the two years the UK has. certain, what is clear is that if the ss to the European single market, e EU’s four freedoms, including the ers. How the compromises will play at all, will be very interesting to
er countries will follow the UK’s he EU itself has a future remains to eral European countries will hold here is a risk that isolationist, ll make a strong showing. France’s Le Pen has vowed to hold an rance’s own EU membership as President next spring. For the EU nough, but to lose a founding EU e tragic. Against such a back’s political weakness in the face of ospect of German withdrawal from ell doom for the EU. Although ieved to run in and win Germany’s all, the more problems mount, the s out. What happens after that is
Looking across the Atlantic, Trump’s rejection of multilateral institutions will endanger international efforts to cooperate on solutions to the world’s biggest problems, such as climate change and nuclear arms. By turning his back on institutions like the WTO, the US is set to potentially undermine the international order that all states have been working within for the better part of the last century. But bilateral relations are also in a shaky position. Trump’s statements casting doubt on continued adherence to a “One China” policy could severely damage relations between the world’s two largest economies. Similarly, the US-Russian relationship also lacks strategic trust, owing to Russia’s military intervention in Syria and its invasion of Ukraine. Yet the biggest political transition the world faces next year is not in the West. China is gearing up for its 19th Party Congress, where many of the country’s top leaders for the next five years will be selected. About half of China’s powerful 18-member Politburo will be swapped out next fall; more importantly, 5 of the 7 members of the Standing Committee are scheduled be replaced. The scale of the turnover means that next year’s congress could easily shape China’s trajectory for much longer than the five-year term. President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang’s eventual successors will be chosen from the ranks of this Standing Committee, so who ends up making it matters a great deal not only for China, but for the rest of the world. In a globalised, interconnected world, what happens in a country no longer stays in that country; its effects will echo far and wide with unpredictable consequences. So keep your eyes peeled and your ears sharp, because the world is in for a wild ride next year.
30 Dec, 2016 Janice Leung
The ďŹ rst step towards change is awareness. - Nathaniel Branden
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