SHORT INTEREST
20 PREDICTIONS FOR ’21 AND BEYOND Luckbox tries its hand at forecasting with 20 outlier predictions for the next two years
BUSINESS An unprecedented 5G-fueled increase in data breaches and cyber crime The spread of 5G will help malicious actors execute attacks and move data more quickly. Expect a new cyber insurance industry to emerge as a result. But be prepared for more deepfakes and attacks on remote workers’ laptops. Villains will also hack Amazon drivers’ computers to perpetrate high-tech porch pirating, and weaponized machine learning attacks will plague networks. Trump keeps the light on for you Posting losses and wallowing in debt, Trump’s hospitality empire will continue to bleed post-presidency. But he’s seen the 2020 electoral map and knows where to resurrect his brand. So Trump International Hotel Management will pivot and invest in or develop a budgetconcept lodging chain targeting middle Americans in flyover states. Best Bet: Red Roof Inn. The 18-hour city comes to the suburbs During the pandemicinduced decline of urban metropolises, Americans have been turning their attention to second-tier “18-hour” cities that offer services, amenities and job opportunities that rival those of “24-hour” cities. Places like Raleigh, Nashville, Tampa, Charlotte, Boise, Tucson, Chattanooga and Salt Lake City have
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viable infrastructure, robust economies and low taxes. The next trend: 18-hour suburbs. (You heard it here first.) As millions continue to work from home, offices in city centers will reduce footprints or relocate. Some urban dwellers will move to the suburbs, and long-time suburbanites will eliminate their commutes. Thus, suburbs will respond by providing shared offices and better housing, transportation, entertainment and Wi-Fi.
monopolistic behavior, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ted Cruz will find a common foe. In response, Amazon will proactively split off AWS to get ahead of looming antitrust headaches.
Move over Starbucks— a new “third place” is emerging Third places are where people spend time between home (first place) and work (second place). Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz perfected the concept. But WFH is making the second place irrelevant, and social distancing is making the third place toxic. So where will Americans go? Luckbox foresees a movement to convert sprawling, anchorless retail malls into high-concept yet functional shared office centers replete with high-tech office amenities, food courts, yoga studios, networking events, lectures and entertainment. WeWork reimagined.
Ghost kitchens rattle chains Finding their niche during the pandemic, delivery-only restaurants are poised to disrupt everything else on the restaurantindustry spectrum. Look for new regional ghost kitchen brands to appear and compete with quick-service, fast-casual and casual dining chains. Ghost-fil-A?
Amazon spins off the cloud Amazon Web Services’ cloud-computing business remains one of Amazon’s biggest profit centers. In Q3 2020, AWS operating income totaled $3.45 billion—57% of Amazon’s overall operating income—yet represented only 12% of Amazon’s total revenue. As the Federal Trade Commission and the House Judiciary Committee intensify their scrutiny of Amazon’s alleged
Working from home is not working There’s a consensus that WFH increases worker output. “People who WFH are 47% more productive,” according to Apollo Technical. But look for a slew of surprising new studies highlighting data that signals lower marginal labor productivity and documenting lapses in motivation, accountability and accuracy. The findings will send employers scrambling to identify new incentives to bring employees back to the office.
PHOTOGRAPHS: (RED ROOF INN) ERIC GLENN / SHUTTERSTOCK.COM; (AMAZON) COURTESY OF AMAZON; (LAPTOP) SHUTTERSTOCK.COM
By Jeff Joseph
luckbox | december 2020 / january 2021
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