THE POKER TRADE
TRADES&TACTICS
by Jonathan Little
Counting Outs and Calculating Pot Odds A WSOP poker pro teaches the math you need to succeed
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Essential poker math
Even a casual poker play should know how to determine pot odds. Bet size you are facing 10% pot
25% pot
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29%
0.67/(1 + .67 + .67)
33%
1/(1 + 1 + 1)
150% pot
200% pot
300% pot
Pot odds determine how often you need to win a pot to break even. It’s based on the bet you’re facing in relation to the size of the pot. Here’s
0.1/(1 + .1 + .1)
0.25/(1 + .25 + .25)
67% pot
100% pot
Calculating pot odds
8%
17%
Calculation
20%
75% pot
probability that they hold the best hand in the game. Here’s how you do it.
% You must win
33% pot
50% pot
SAVVY POKER PLAYERS can forecast the
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hand (which will be discussed soon), then you should call and continue in the pot. If it wins less than 33% of the time, you should consider folding. The chart below lists bet sizes you may face and the percentage of the time you must win to continue profitably. You may be surprised that no matter how much your opponent bets, the most you will ever need to win is only 50% of the time to
25%
30%
0.33/(1 + .33 + .33) 0.5/(1 + .5 + .5)
0.75/(1 + .75 + .75)
38%
1.5/(1 + 1.5 + 1.5)
43%
3/(1 + 3 + 3)
40%
the equation: % Required to win = bet/(pot + bet + bet). It can determine how often you need to win to continue anytime you’re facing a bet when against one opponent. Suppose your opponent bets $100 into a $100 (100%) pot. In this situation, you have to call $100 to win $300 total (the $100 pot, your opponent’s $100 bet and the $100 you are putting in). That means you need to win the pot 33% of the time or more to profit 100/(100 + 100 + 100). See Essential Poker Math, above. If you know it will win more than 33% of the time based on your hand’s strength or the likelihood your hand improves to the best
2/(1 + 2 + 2)
break even. That said, you will find almost no one in the real world bluffs too often using a bet of three times the size of the pot. Facing a bet with players yet to act behind you, consider how often you will be raised and thus forced to fold your hand. With players yet to act, you usually need to win far more than your pot odds dictate to continue.
Counting outs
When you have a draw (a hand that’s almost certainly behind at the moment but could im-
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12/21/23 6:59 PM
